@marginofdanger marginofdanger

marginofdanger posts on X about $hhh, $fph, in the, company the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

Engagements: [-----] #

[--] Week [------] +1,302%
[--] Month [------] -43%
[--] Months [-------] -38%
[--] Year [-------] -36%

Mentions: [--] #

[--] Week [--] no change
[--] Month [--] -40%
[--] Months [---] +8.20%
[--] Year [---] +17%

Followers: [-----] #

[--] Week [-----] +0.04%
[--] Month [-----] +2.70%
[--] Months [-----] +8.40%
[--] Year [-----] +35%

CreatorRank: [---------] #

Social Influence

Social category influence finance 38.66% stocks 10.08% cryptocurrencies 5.04% technology brands 1.68% gaming 0.84% social networks 0.84% currencies 0.84%

Social topic influence $hhh #9, $fph 14.29%, in the 12.61%, company 9.24%, nav 7.56%, $200mm 6.72%, play 6.72%, $fmbl 5.88%, $bwel 5.88%, debt 5.88%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @ron284ron @billackman @ragingventures @linglingfool @ragingbullcap @howardhugheshq @davidoreillyhh @odddiligence @mariogabelli @handlerrich @taseen @fishtowncap @skiingswimming1 @philtimyan @thebankzhar @leveredvalue @colarion @stocksoddball @thepupil11 @dirtcheapbanks

Top assets mentioned Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH) Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA) Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) NIQ Global Intelligence plc (NIQ) Transocean LTD. (RIG) Validity (VAL) Strategy (MSTR) Versant Media Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock (VSNT)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Addendum- here's my NAV (it doesn't exactly tie to my $10-15/share as I'm being a bit conservative against these): Irvine ($920mm): [---] residential acres at $10mm/acre = $1.8bn * 40% effective O/S = $720mm. [---] commercial acres at $5mm = $500mm * 40% = $200mm. Valencia: 5k acres in LA county at $300k per acre = $1.5bn. Lower valuation reflects higher costs to grade and zoning. Supported by a [--] year DCF and could be much higher. SF: [---] acres of developable land at Candlestick worth $5-10mm/acre or $500mm-1bn. Excludes any value from Tetra Tech litigation or Hunters Point. Other: They own 16k"
X Link 2024-12-30T21:50Z [----] followers, 11.4K engagements

"If a company that trades at a large discount to intrinsic value signalled that it was going to sell how much should it be up Well in the case of $FMBL the answer is: "not at all". But in fairness the signal was very subtle and $FMBL is an illiquid stock. And most people aren't paying attention. But I am This week the company sent out proxies for its [----] annual meeting with two very revealing items (see attached) namely reducing the voting threshold on a sale of the company from 80% to 65%. $FMBL family owned and essentially run like a private company for over [---] years has always been known"
X Link 2025-08-20T23:27Z [----] followers, 13.6K engagements

"Re: $FMBL @thepupil11 gets credit for pointing out this very interesting paragraph from the [--] page proxy doc. Seems like a $200mm potential preferred equity investment at economic equivalent of $12300/share"
X Link 2025-08-21T19:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Some signs of life at $SLRK. Wondering why"
X Link 2025-10-27T23:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Must be extreme fatigue in the $BOIVF structure when leak of judge decision causes Vivendi stock to go down 20% (good for Bollore) and $BOIVF has zero reaction"
X Link 2025-11-21T18:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@linglingfool Yeah it was a special situation. The event happened and now its in a weird purgatory until they return the cash or buy another asset"
X Link 2026-01-13T23:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"I am very intrigued by $MTN. It's a portfolio of irreplaceable assets. Beneficiary of a growing affluent class. It's essentially real estate but it doesn't qualify for REIT status bc it doesn't control the land through ownership or a leasehold interest but through a use permit (essentially). Would trade at a much higher multiple if it were a REIT but doesn't really have a logical shareholder base and there are no other public comps (Alterra is private). Valuation looks reasonable and despite the snow conditions being awful this year the numbers aren't atrocious."
X Link 2026-01-15T19:03Z [----] followers, 18.8K engagements

"$BWEL share count down by 7k since 6/30/25"
X Link 2026-01-16T17:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"USDA publishes its January [----] tomato report. Notably tomato processors contracted volumes are down 11%. Should bode well for $BWEL. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Publications/Specialty_and_Other_Releases/Tomatoes/2026/PTOMInt_0126.pdf https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Publications/Specialty_and_Other_Releases/Tomatoes/2026/PTOMInt_0126.pdf"
X Link 2026-01-28T15:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"There are a lot of moving pieces behind the scenes here. They are very focused on being as capital light as possible and they bought Hearthstone to help facilitate the financing of both Valencia and SF off balance sheet. Both projects have a regulatory angle and they're working to get JVs in place. They also don't want to be constrained on timing so they want maximum liquidity. They are definitely conservatively positioned and should be in a position to return capital as the visibility around how they are going to finance gets clearer. I would be legitimately shocked if they don't start"
X Link 2026-01-30T15:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"New CEO seems solid did a really good job in the East region. $CBBI performance has been roughly in line with its LA Korean peers but its valuation is significantly lower bc of lack of trading liquidity OTC listing and obstinance on stock buyback. There is no room for activism here given the holder base / control. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018069892478681449 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018069892478681449"
X Link 2026-02-01T21:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"If anyone involved in $NIQ $NID wants to compare notes on the $VST deal please send me a message"
X Link 2024-09-19T14:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"This year I present a handful of my top ideas for [----] (in alphabetical order of tickers). Some of these names are fairly uncorrelated with the market (and a few definitely are not). As a reminder please do your own work and be mindful of the low trading liquidity in many of these. $BWEL JG Boswell at $459/share (LOW RISK / HIGH REWARD) JG Boswell has been the deep value stock that even the most disciplined investors have lost patience with (including yours truly). Despite the last year being horrible for both tomatoes and cotton $BWEL put up $40mm of adj. EBITDA. It is extremely rare for"
X Link 2026-01-01T00:28Z [----] followers, 19.7K engagements

"$FPH announces deal with Blue Owl whereby Blue Owl receives warrants for 1% of $FPH at a $7/share price subject to investing between $500mm and $1.7bn into land banking partnerships. Assume that Blue Owl could help financing Valencia and SF. Bullish https://www.sec.gov/ixdoc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001574197/000119312526044747/d56670d8k.htm https://www.sec.gov/ixdoc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001574197/000119312526044747/d56670d8k.htm"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Will be interesting to hear exactly how Blue Owl with $300bn+ of AUM will help finance $FPH's projects. Really hope this accelerates the return of the $400mm+ of balance sheet cash to shareholders"
X Link 2026-02-10T22:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@dirtcheapbanks $SLRK the one branch wonder"
X Link 2026-01-31T03:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$HHH Friday PM news. Still going through this but this lawsuit paints a damning picture of Ackman and the Special Committee in the process to give Ackman control. I'm not sure if this case has merit nor what the remedy would be but pretty interesting nonetheless. https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rss.vSVh8Qzo/v0 https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rss.vSVh8Qzo/v0"
X Link 2026-02-14T00:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@leevalueroach Based upon the big discount on $PSHZF the failure of $PSUS and the poor trading of $HHH seems pretty clear market is saying that Ackman doesnt generate alpha anymore"
X Link 2026-02-14T21:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$TETAA is a $24mm mkt cap co with a 20% float and 80% held by insiders which is mostly Mario Gabelli. Mid 14s share price vs $18/share book. NCAV/share is $14.60. B/S is $22mm of cash implying a TEV of $2mm or 2x EBITDA. Co manages $1.4bn of (declining) mutual fund AUM. Strategy is to make small synergistic acquisitions of other declining managers. They recently acquired $100mm of AUM for no upfront cash consideration and $2.7mm FMV of deferred contingent consideration. My base case is that $TETAA provides a treasury-like return i.e. not exciting. However to the extent that mgmt is successful"
X Link 2024-11-27T16:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"An easy mistake is to focus on NAV when looking at shipping and offshore drillers. These companies have intangible value (and often negative value) beyond the value of their hard assets namely the ability of management to generate income from these assets. Think of it like this - if you were handed the best drillship in the world you wouldn't be able to generate the same yield as $RIG. $VAL is a name I consistently see mentioned on X with people focused on how good of a fleet they have. But the problem is that the legacy Ensco and Rowan businesses just didn't have any cred with the majors."
X Link 2024-12-07T01:25Z [----] followers, 14.6K engagements

"$FPH sells its last remaining office building plus the surrounding land for $88.5mm (FPH owns 75%). Between this and the other Great Park land sales company should be in a good position to refinance its legacy high cost bonds. https://www.ocbj.com/healthcare/city-of-hope-pays-88-5m-for-52-acres-in-great-parks-area/ https://www.ocbj.com/healthcare/city-of-hope-pays-88-5m-for-52-acres-in-great-parks-area/"
X Link 2024-12-18T16:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"My highest conviction idea going into [----] is $FPH currently $3.60 vs. NAV of $10-15/sh. I believe that the stock could double in [----]. This name is cheap WITH multiple catalysts that are likely to play out very shortly: [--]. Leverage profile is about to inflect significantly favorable. $FPH sold its last Irvine office building in December and they are also expected to close a large resi land sale in Irvine by year end or very early 1Q25. The proceeds of these sales will bring them very close to ZERO net debt enabling them to refinance their expensive notes. [--]. Capital intensity is also likely"
X Link 2024-12-30T18:09Z [----] followers, 121K engagements

"Some fun predictions for [----] and a single stock wishlist: Predictions [--]. Law of large numbers takes hold and $MSTR largely converges to its NAV [--]. S&P [---] has a mediocre year (and looks ugly at some point mid year) and small cap value finally outperforms the S&P [--]. Ackman somehow gets a US permanent capital vehicle [--]. IPO window re-opens and we get SpaceX or Starlink transaction (maybe thru the Pershing SPARs) [--]. OpenAI proves to be the "Altavista" of AI and is overtaken by a better option [--]. Trump tax cuts get extended with only a modest improvement vs. the current rate of 21% (maybe"
X Link 2025-01-01T20:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Pershing Square Holdco (@billackman) is offering to increase its ownership from 37.6% to 69.2% by i) PSH acquiring 11.8mm shares at $85/share in cash and ii) $HHH repurchasing 5.9m shares at $85/share in cash. While this PROPOSED transaction is amazing for Pershing Square (no surprise) it is a BAD DEAL for shareholders given that Pershing will acquire full control without buying all the shares and they would be paying a price that is a large discount to NAV. There is no way that the disinterested board members while exercising their fiduciary duties could accept this partial deal for FULL"
X Link 2025-01-13T14:04Z [----] followers, 35K engagements

"@BillAckman Other issues: 1) Minority stub will be EVEN more illiquid and won't trade well 2) Ackman to charge fees() on stub holders and we already know he won't trade well as a public company 3) Does it really make sense to put even more leverage on this business We need deleveraging"
X Link 2025-01-13T14:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"What is a reliable source of water in CA worth A lot more than is implied in $BWEL at a $550mm market cap. Where CA goes from here is uncertain- but I feel very confident that water is going to skyrocket in value given the actions that will be mandatory to safeguard SoCal. Very little downside in $BWEL which owns over 1% of CAs water supply (as well as 130k prime farmland acres and various other hard assets)"
X Link 2025-01-13T19:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$POWW is a name that hasn't been discussed on X. This is a special situation for a few reasons: 1) non-ESG business 2) litigation and 3) a recent material asset sale. This week $POWW sold its cash burning ammo mfg biz for $75mm. At current prices you create its one remaining biz GunBroker an asset light marketplace category killer for a hair above $100mm. GunBroker has minimal capex and high mkt share -- it has historically generated $30-40mm of segment EBITDA. Post asset sale $POWW's G&A is a bit unclear but the create on this trophy asset is quite low relative to the quality of the"
X Link 2025-01-23T01:46Z [----] followers, 13K engagements

"$FPH results out guiding to $200mm of net income next year. Implies P/E of under 3x. Approaching zero net debt. Firing on all cylinders. 🔥 🔥 🔥"
X Link 2025-01-23T21:15Z [----] followers, 14.5K engagements

"Even with the stock up 35% today $FPH is trading at 4x [----] EPS"
X Link 2025-01-24T18:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@BillAckman Your subtle humor was evident in this post and the $HHH proposal"
X Link 2025-01-29T17:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$FPH was (and continues to be) value hiding in plain sight with multiple catalysts on the horizon (and they are still coming too). $HHH is in a very similar situation - and namely that the market does not recognize the significant cash flow generation that is coming after years of debt fueled capital spending. Sometimes the cheap SOTP real estate stories can work"
X Link 2025-01-31T00:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"As it's been a while since the $HHH proposal went in to the board I was re-reading the letter and wanted to emphasize a nuanced but very key point. The letter reads: "Pershing believes that HHC is on the path to soon begin to generate substantial excess cash resources above and beyond investments in new property developments and amenities including the capital expenditures and other investments." As we have seen with $FPH the capital market tends not to look very far ahead on these businesses with long duration capital intensive land developments. The investment is often up front and can take"
X Link 2025-02-07T00:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$PZZA is up 17% today on speculation of a take private. However there are numerous other small restaurant companies out there trading at big dislocations to their private market value. $JACK is clearly one potentially $DENN and there are others"
X Link 2025-02-13T19:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$WEBC a very illiquid OTC name is worth attention. $181/$195 right now. One month ago when $WEBC was $160-170 the company paid a sizable premium to buy back 17% of the company's stock at $200/share (in a block trade) bringing the Weber family's ownership from 65% to 79%. One analogous situation I can think of is $MCEM. Several years ago $MCEM was trading in the 60s and the company did a dutch tender at a premium to acquire shares. We all know what happened after that. While $MCEM was in retrospect incredibly cheap $WEBC is by no means expensive. Additionally I am struggling to find a"
X Link 2025-02-14T19:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Cant wait to hear the garbage proposal from Ackman on $HHH. It is incumbent on shareholders to make sure Pershing Square is kept honest here"
X Link 2025-02-18T21:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Some observations on $HHH: [--]. Ackmans proposal is weak. The board knows it and he knows it. He posts engagementbait during market hours that is borderline MNPI driving the stock up and then down on announcement. @SECGov should look into that. [--]. He is part of the problem. He has been the de facto sponsor of $HHH since inception. Yet he conveniently omits that fact when talking about his track record. He oversaw the expensive blunder at Seaport (and Teravalis) initiated share buybacks at a premium and forced company to issue stock as a result of a COVID. Overall his track record de facto"
X Link 2025-02-19T18:13Z [----] followers, 58.4K engagements

"1/ Pershing now says that NAV is not a good valuation methodology but here is what they say in their March [----] $PSH.NA shareholder letter (before filing their 13D / failing at their $PSUS launch): "HHH is in the early stages of its decades-long value creation opportunity and we expect the company to become substantially more free-cash-flow generative in the coming years. Pershing Square purchased an additional [---] million shares of HHH in [----] at an average price of $72 per share and now owns 38% of the company. We believe our purchase price represents a deep discount to the companys"
X Link 2025-02-23T14:27Z [----] followers, 54K engagements

"4/ To summarize when Ackman wants something (i.e. sell at a good price of buy at a good price) you hear his words. Just like at Sohn in [----] and now in [----]. His actions are more important and suggest that he thinks that the price here is a steal. Going into COVID he had a very small position. COVID comes he invests $500mm at $50 adds more at $72 and has to stop adding because the company's bylaws prevent him from going above 40%. So now he wants to take over $HHH without paying a change of control premium nor having a shareholder vote. And what do we get A person who has been playing the"
X Link 2025-02-23T14:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$HHH is hitting a major inflection point and the market is not pricing it in. Stock is barely up today but there was $28/share (or more) in incremental value disclosed namely: 1) Company's NAV for its MPCs (excluding Ward Village) increased in one quarter from $3.9bn to $4.8bn which is $18/share. The reason for the significant increase is mostly Summerlin where acreage values have inflected significantly. 2) Ward Village receives an additional 2.5-3.5mm sf of residential entitlements. This is around [--] incremental towers with $2.5bn of future revenue and I would estimate around $750mm of"
X Link 2025-02-27T16:39Z [----] followers, 41.3K engagements

"Open letter to $HHH its board and its shareholders. I was reflecting a bit more on the Ackman proposal and I think that Ackman's own thesis for turning $HHH into Berkshire is flawed and the concerns he has articulated substantiate that. [--]. Biggest issue $HHH has as a public company is its inability to return cash to shareholders for a very long period of time. There is a large timing mismatch between investment and return. To maintain tax efficiency as proceeds are generated they are recycled into additional development. Shareholders may apply a large discount rate to account for what is"
X Link 2025-03-01T21:39Z [----] followers, 42.8K engagements

"$WBA seems interesting at $11.27: -$11.45 paid out in cash in mid Q4 [----] plus a non-transferrable CVR -CVR of up to $3/share on VillageMD ($WBA owns $3.4bn of debt in VillageMD plus an equity stake) -70% of proceeds on VillageMD goes to CVR holders -WBA has invested billions into VillageMD health clinics -VillageMD does $5-6bn of top-line and burning cash but company believes can do $300mm of EBITDA. IRR based on CVR value (assuming two year payout post close): $1/share = 13% $2/share = 20% $3/share = 26%"
X Link 2025-03-07T14:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$SEG results The good: [--] year lease with Meow Wolf expected to drive 1mm people per year to Seaport. [---] Water St could generate big proceeds from sale or partnership Mgmt seems very focused on cost control at Tin Building and insourcing operations The bad: No guidance and looks weak not to take Q+A $25mm of burn in the quarter My take: [---] Water St is the key near term catalyst. If it sells near cost basis ($250mm or so) would be very transformative for the company. Burn should start to slow meaningfully in next few quarters. Incredibly cheap at a 15-20pct discount vs rights offering level"
X Link 2025-03-11T17:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$FPH is sitting on $431mm of cash with $525mm of 10.5% notes callable at [---]. The net cost right now is $38mm/yr. Mgmt guiding to $100-200mm of debt reduction this year. Seems too conservative but if we use $200mm of paydown and assume a refi into 8% notes the pro forma net interest cost is $17mm/year or $21mm/year of benefit. Given the net income this year of $200mm plus the undrawn RC I think its likely the company reduces debt by more than $200mm which would result in even more significant savings. HY market is super hot right now and $FPH CFO was at the JPM HY conference last month he was"
X Link 2025-03-20T16:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"You know how I know that $DENN is very cheap Because they could do a whole business securitization at 5-6x leverage refinance their existing debt and pay a dividend equal to nearly the entire market cap. And the pro forma business would be highly FCF positive"
X Link 2025-03-21T00:14Z [----] followers, 34.5K engagements

"$FPH was one of my highest conviction ideas going into [----] and remains so despite its big move up YTD. The balance sheet has been completely derisked and lower rates should on the margin improve the value of the asset base. My highest conviction idea going into [----] is $FPH currently $3.60 vs. NAV of $10-15/sh. I believe that the stock could double in [----]. This name is cheap WITH multiple catalysts that are likely to play out very shortly: [--]. Leverage profile is about to inflect My highest conviction idea going into [----] is $FPH currently $3.60 vs. NAV of $10-15/sh. I believe that the stock"
X Link 2025-04-04T20:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$PLAY is too cheap to ignore. The stock at $17/share is at the IPO price from [--] years ago when EBITDA was around 1/3 where it is today. $PLAY is two businesses: 1) arcades (dba "Dave & Busters") and 2) bowling (dba "Main Event"). They acquired Main Event a few years ago for around $800mm and its probably worth at least that today (and pureplay $BOWL trades well). You create the legacy arcade business at around 2x EBITDA. There is a large insider shareholder Hill Path (former Apollo partner) who owns 20% of the company and has two board seats. They recently fired the CEO (who made a number of"
X Link 2025-04-14T22:15Z [----] followers, 63.4K engagements

"$FPH reported and reiterated guidance for around $200mm of net income this year. They are also about zero net debt now. The P/E multiple is under 4x. Still a top idea for me. My highest conviction idea going into [----] is $FPH currently $3.60 vs. NAV of $10-15/sh. I believe that the stock could double in [----]. This name is cheap WITH multiple catalysts that are likely to play out very shortly: [--]. Leverage profile is about to inflect My highest conviction idea going into [----] is $FPH currently $3.60 vs. NAV of $10-15/sh. I believe that the stock could double in [----]. This name is cheap WITH"
X Link 2025-04-24T20:40Z [----] followers, 11.7K engagements

"Something you don't see every day is the issuance of a class of preferred stock where dividends are completely discretionary and do not accrue if unpaid. I have never heard of this concept but $MSTR is pricing a $1bn preferred today $STRD with non-cumulative dividends. Can someone please educate me as to why investors are OK with these terms https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312525133455/d125757d424b5.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312525133455/d125757d424b5.htm"
X Link 2025-06-06T00:16Z [----] followers, 11.6K engagements

"$YORKU tmrw"
X Link 2025-06-27T00:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$FPH update. I had presented $FPH at year end [----] as my very best idea. As of today it is up about 50% YTD (to $5.60/share) and it is still a high conviction idea. In my original post (link below) my thesis is playing out exactly as I presented it. However there is now a new leg to the thesis and it's worth diving in. Last Friday $FPH announced that it was acquiring 75% of Hearthstone's asset and investment mgmt businesses for $56mm ("HS"). HS is a merchant bank that arranges land financings - having relationships with both homebuilders and investors (HNWI family office funds etc.) and"
X Link 2025-06-27T18:14Z [----] followers, 11.1K engagements

"$FPH thoughts on the move yesterday. For the last several calls there was a positive surprise and this was the first call where there wasn't - so a bit of a pause in momentum. The negative on the call was that they revised net income guidance from just under $200mm ($190-195mm) to in-line with previous year net income of $178mm. On the call they attributed this change to the "timing" of land sales and if one took a super critical lens that could be interpreted negatively in combination with comments around general weakness in homebuilder demand (despite the fact that they said that their CA"
X Link 2025-07-26T12:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$SEG reports in less than two weeks. There are two obvious catalysts - both of which could be huge - that we could get an update on: 1) Sale of [---] Water Street. There was an article two weeks ago that said there were [---] interested parties and the company was talking to 3-4 finalists. A sale here could result in $150mm+ of tax-free proceeds. 2) Jean-Georges termination. On 7/3/25 $SEG filed an 8-K finally announcing the termination of this horrendous contract. It is the uncertainty around this contract that mgmt has been loath to provide cash flow guidance. The termination of the contract"
X Link 2025-07-31T17:16Z [----] followers, 19.4K engagements

"Both catalysts playing out $SEG $SEG reports in less than two weeks. There are two obvious catalysts - both of which could be huge - that we could get an update on: 1) Sale of [---] Water Street. There was an article two weeks ago that said there were [---] interested parties and the company was talking to 3-4 $SEG reports in less than two weeks. There are two obvious catalysts - both of which could be huge - that we could get an update on: 1) Sale of [---] Water Street. There was an article two weeks ago that said there were [---] interested parties and the company was talking to 3-4"
X Link 2025-08-18T20:56Z [----] followers, 16.7K engagements

"@Capt_GN This is at $QUCT not $FMBL"
X Link 2025-08-21T14:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Ron284Ron Thanks this is great"
X Link 2025-08-21T14:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I mean the aircraft seem ridiculous but what are the actual facts that make Red Pants Man a bad dude The earnings and balance sheet growth have been good. Efficiency ratio good. The only thing bad has been the stock price. What am I missing Seems like a signal vs noise situation"
X Link 2025-08-27T00:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@TimyanBankAlert At 2x earnings and sub 0.5x TBV seems like a big margin of safety"
X Link 2025-08-27T14:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Can someone please explain what I'm missing here $YORKU deal involved a $1bn contribution of Cronos (6.3bn CRO). That implies a valuation of around 16c per CRO. Now CRO is trading at 38c. Why has $YORKU barely reacted Isn't the NAV of this business now well over $20 cc: @vik_mittal @SPACuity @OddDiligence @valwithcatalyst https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1961046900758478952 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1961046900758478952"
X Link 2025-08-28T12:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@OddDiligence Well either CRO will come down or $YORK $YORKU $YORKW will go up. Interesting setup as your downside is pretty limited here"
X Link 2025-08-28T13:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"What Chamath can deliver with his SPAC his certainty of a transaction. He has unique access to a lot of AI crypto right-wing and a combination thereof of companies. While his historical track record sucks the optionality here is enormous. If it's a 10% chance of a 5x as an example"
X Link 2025-09-26T16:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I listened to this podcast over the weekend and I was encouraged to hear that @chamath 's founder shares in newly public $AEXA are subject to a vesting schedule starting at $15/share. However if you look at $AEXA prospectus it says that the vesting schedule is disregarded upon a change of control. The definition of change of control could include the majority pro forma shareholder in the de-SPAC simply selling down their stake. Classic. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1974896346248458654 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1974896346248458654"
X Link 2025-10-05T17:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@GuyImpatient $FRPH is trading like something is going wrong"
X Link 2025-10-08T14:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$FMBL closes $200mm preferred equity investment from undisclosed investor. https://investors.fmb.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2025/Farmers--Merchants-Bank-of-Long-Beach-Closes-Equity-Investment/default.aspx https://investors.fmb.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2025/Farmers--Merchants-Bank-of-Long-Beach-Closes-Equity-Investment/default.aspx"
X Link 2025-10-20T12:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$FMBL reports Q3 with improving results and resumption/initiation of $10mm buyback. https://investors.fmb.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2025/Farmers--Merchants-Bank-of-Long-Beach-Reports-2025-Third-Quarter-and-Year-to-Date-Results/default.aspx https://investors.fmb.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2025/Farmers--Merchants-Bank-of-Long-Beach-Reports-2025-Third-Quarter-and-Year-to-Date-Results/default.aspx"
X Link 2025-10-21T15:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Strong results at $HAFC probably a decent indicator for perennially undervalued $CBBI https://ir.stockpr.com/hanmi/sec-filings-email/content/0001171843-25-006566/exh_991.htm https://ir.stockpr.com/hanmi/sec-filings-email/content/0001171843-25-006566/exh_991.htm"
X Link 2025-10-22T00:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Interesting situation at $TIPT (@ $19/share). Holdco w/ mgmt selling all operating assets (mostly an insurance biz called Fortegra). Pro forma NAV/share (virtually all cash/treasuries) will be $24+/share and reflects all deal fees and taxes. Insiders own 40% of the company and a director recently bought stock in the low 18s. Mgmt could either return the cash or they may buy another asset. Post sale overhead should be significantly less than interest income on the cash pile. I think this goes to $22 on the completion of the asset sale and possibly $24+ when the cash is deployed. There is a"
X Link 2025-11-14T20:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"If anyone ever tells you the market is efficient $FMBL made a very telling board appointment today (a Fidelity senior person) and not one person has looked at her profile today on Bloomberg (other than me)"
X Link 2025-11-20T23:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$FMBL posts this shareholder letter"
X Link 2025-11-25T14:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$TIPT stock has dipped below $18/share post the shareholder vote to approve the Fortegra sale. My gut feeling is that Veradace and maybe some other likeminded shareholders are punting. As a reminder pro forma tangible book value per share is $24.60/share once the sale closes in mid [----]. Expect another [--] months for management to deploy the cash into an insurance company acquisition (or something else). If we assume this converges to TBV by 12/31/26 the IRR is 36%. If we assume this converges to 90% of TBV by 6/30/27 the IRR is 15%. Pretty good risk/reward with pro forma cash providing 1.4x"
X Link 2025-12-09T23:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Last year my top pick for [----] crushed it. While $FPH may be a top pick for [----] it is probably not at the very top of my list. Im still thinking through the ethics of disclosing my top idea for [----] as it is very illiquid. Perhaps Ill bifurcate my top ideas for [----] into a more liquid and less liquid option. My highest conviction idea going into [----] is $FPH currently $3.60 vs. NAV of $10-15/sh. I believe that the stock could double in [----]. This name is cheap WITH multiple catalysts that are likely to play out very shortly: [--]. Leverage profile is about to inflect My highest conviction idea"
X Link 2025-12-25T23:55Z [----] followers, 15.8K engagements

"Meaningful insider buy by Scot Sellers at $HHH which has retraced quite a bit since the insurance company buy. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1981792/000110465925124903/xslF345X05/tm2534412-1_4seq1.xml https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1981792/000110465925124903/xslF345X05/tm2534412-1_4seq1.xml"
X Link 2025-12-30T00:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"When you see a post that touts someone's [----] YTD % return (and not a fund manager whose results are audited and presented fairly) ask yourself these questions: [--]. How tax efficient were they [--]. How much capital are they managing Do they have multiple accounts and they are just showing you the best one It's a lot easier to generate big returns on a small capital base. [--]. What does their balance sheet look like outside of this brokerage account Are they truly compounding their wealth [--]. Did they take outsized risk relative to the return was generated Was there return driven by alpha or beta"
X Link 2026-01-01T16:04Z [----] followers, 15.6K engagements

"A framework for thinking about special situations: 1) Brand new / uncovered. No write-ups anywhere the situation just presented itself (news spin etc.). These are the best situations to get involved with. A good example of this would be the $SPHR spinoff $TIPT or $WBA CVRs (DAPs). 2) Picked over. Multiple write-ups on various platforms possibly traded up already and offer return potential. Sometimes these are good (but not as good as when they are fresh) and you need to be mindful that you're providing the earliest investors exit liquidity. 90%+ of tickers that you see on X fall into this"
X Link 2026-01-06T18:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Apologies for the chicken scratch"
X Link 2026-01-06T18:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$VSNT spin cant find a bid. The trends look awful but the multiple looks dirt cheap. Anyone like"
X Link 2026-01-07T14:54Z [----] followers, 18.2K engagements

"Small insider buy at $PLAY from the chief legal officer. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1525769/000119312526016668/xslF345X05/ownership.xml https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1525769/000119312526016668/xslF345X05/ownership.xml"
X Link 2026-01-20T22:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$PLAY Chairman Kevin Sheehan moves [-----] shares into a GRAT. An estate tax planning move that really makes sense if you expect the underlying asset to appreciate. https://ir.daveandbusters.com/node/17531/html https://ir.daveandbusters.com/node/17531/html"
X Link 2026-01-21T22:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$LICT is a fatigued value name that is worth some attention. Controlled by @MarioGabelli $LICT is a telco that focuses on providing services to exurban markets that is in the midst of a capital intensive program to upgrade its customers to fiber. Valuation today is sub 5x EBITDA and you create the company at the end of its upgrade cycle (YE28) at 4x EBITDA / 20% FCF yield. Upon completion of the upgrades I believe likely business would get sold and see M&A valuation at year end [----] of $23-46k/share vs. current valuation of $11k. Reason this one exists is its poor trading liquidity (low float"
X Link 2026-01-22T18:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Probably should have bought here oops @marginofdanger @HandlerRich @TASE_en First we tried to buy enough to matter for the funds but the company had only $25m for sale and there was no reasonable prospect of buying enough to matter. Our typical position size for stocks today is $1.5 billion or more. Such a small position would still require @marginofdanger @HandlerRich @TASE_en First we tried to buy enough to matter for the funds but the company had only $25m for sale and there was no reasonable prospect of buying enough to matter. Our typical position size for stocks today is $1.5 billion or"
X Link 2026-01-23T19:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$FPH. [----] was always going to be a weaker year than [----]. Land sales aren't linear. Successful rezoning of Great Park commercial land to residential is a big positive ($10mm/acre vs. $5mm/acre). Valencia approvals also very helpful. SF land sales were also never happening in 2026"
X Link 2026-01-30T15:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@FishtownCap Why are you assuming they're not going to return capital to shareholders They are highly incentivized to create shareholder value and they're a good team"
X Link 2026-01-30T15:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"New Year's surprise from Nuveen on $NID $NIQ. It seems like they are doing a 100% payout of the Vistra Vision sale proceeds so we don't have to wait until year end [----] to get paid. Great outcome. Thanks to @alluvialcapital for originally flagging this. https://documents.nuveen.com/Documents/Nuveen/Default.aspxuniqueId=d2d6903a-05bf-4e95-9552-112d2e5b17a2 https://documents.nuveen.com/Documents/Nuveen/Default.aspxuniqueId=d2d6903a-05bf-4e95-9552-112d2e5b17a2"
X Link 2025-01-02T18:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I'm listening to the $OTCM Community Banks Virtual Investor Conference. Unless the mgmt teams are lying this "crisis" seems to be very localized with $FRC $SIVB et al with the community banks operating business as usual without any deposit attrition"
X Link 2023-03-22T15:47Z [----] followers, 13.9K engagements

"$SPHR began trading freely from $MSGE. I've tried to simplify the SOTP below. The low case assumes the Sphere residual equity value is zero and the Blue Sky case assumes its valued at cost. Up/down seems very favorable"
X Link 2023-04-21T20:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

""Conservative" NAV from $FRPH mgmt just hit the tape"
X Link 2023-10-11T14:56Z [----] followers, 10.1K engagements

"Ackman today showed that he can move a trillion $ treasury mkt w/ a tweet. Meanwhile he adds to $HHH every day (confirmed with public form [--] filings) where his edge is much stronger (given he's chairman and been around the biz for two decades) and no one seems to care"
X Link 2023-10-23T18:44Z [----] followers, 14.7K engagements

"1/ $HHH is -28% YTD at $61.57. Ackman put in $500mm at $50/share during COVID and had been buying up to $75/share very recently. Upside here if $HHH reaches: Ackman's recent $75 buy price: +21% Investor day NAV of $109 assuming Seaport is a zero: +77% My NAV of $125: +103%"
X Link 2024-04-15T21:30Z [----] followers, 51.3K engagements

"Pershings historical ownership of $HHH. Been involved for at least [--] years. Their position is about 4x larger in shares at half the price as compared to when Ackman pitched this as a top idea at [----] Ira Sohn No I dont think hes a seller here. https://assets.pershingsquareholdings.com/media/2017/05/08140311/FINAL-Ira-Sohn-Presentation-2017.05.08_Final-Sohn.pdf https://assets.pershingsquareholdings.com/media/2017/05/08140311/FINAL-Ira-Sohn-Presentation-2017.05.08_Final-Sohn.pdf"
X Link 2024-04-16T21:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@CapitalShipyard Do you have any napkin math on how much $ROYTL is worth"
X Link 2024-10-14T20:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$BYFC is poorly run ECIP bank and they replaced both their CEO and their CFO in the last year or so. I noticed that in their latest 10-Q they marked up their level [--] loan portfolio value significantly which cannot be explained by rates. If the new number is correct it suggests that the liquidation value of the bank is now 3x the stock price. Earnings seem to be improving too (time will tell) and perhaps the new CEO will move things in the right direction. Seems like decent upside if he does"
X Link 2024-10-16T13:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Ackman has shown his cards on $HHH. He knows that $PSUS is not an option and this is his best bet to create a permanent capital vehicle. Theres no chance $85 is his best bid nor is there any chance that $85 is the highest price that a private market participant would pay. The board should run a full strategic alternatives process- and only consider Ackmans merger proposal if the cash consideration plus stub equity value together are meaningfully closer to NAV of $120+. The stub equity could do really well but $HHH shareholders need a big cash payment to make it worth our while"
X Link 2025-01-14T03:30Z [----] followers, 20.3K engagements

"$KROS is an interesting busted biotech net-net. Approx $15/share in NCAV/share vs. mid $10s share price. cc: @gw_investing"
X Link 2025-01-17T14:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$FPH traded in the $4.40-4.50 area after hours on earnings. The call further validated the thesis- and I want to flag a few key elements: [--]. Great Park land values per acre are moving even higher. And $FPH is likely going to rezone much of its commercial acreage (now worth $5mm/acre) to residential ($10mm/acre). Given they own [---] commercial acres rezoning could be worth $200mm ($500mm * 40%) [--]. $430mm of cash excludes another $45mm in an interest bearing note from City of Hope that matures in 12/2026. [--]. CFO committed to $100-200mm pay down of the notes and indicated a strong interest in"
X Link 2025-01-24T03:52Z [----] followers, 24.5K engagements

"Honestly I thought your first proposal was more compelling. This doesnt give us anything. Just issuing equity at $90 vs the buyback a few years ago at a similar price. Very telling that this is still a proposal. The board obviously cant approve this given they are fiduciaries"
X Link 2025-02-18T21:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Simple $HHH math: Current price: $74/share 1.5% fee at 15x multiple: $(17)/share Value of $900mm at $90: $3/share Pro forma price: $60/share"
X Link 2025-02-19T20:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I still believe this https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1845951660297707784 Do not blindly fall into the higher profile investors hawking offshore drillers such as $VAL $RIG (again). The easy money in this trade was made a while ago (off the heels of a lot of restructuring) and at this point it's a much more difficult trade. I keep seeing people talk https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1845951660297707784 Do not blindly fall into the higher profile investors hawking offshore drillers such as $VAL $RIG (again). The easy money in this trade was made a while ago (off the heels of a lot of"
X Link 2025-03-06T22:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The company doesn't need to raise equity and has very favorable debt terms. There is no balance sheet risk here. The issue is that the comps are negative because they took a lot of price after COVID bc times were good and inflation. Now they need to cycle through the unwind of that. Another issue is that Del Taco is really weighing on the numbers. JITB is mostly all franchised (with the owned stores being high AUV) while Del Taco is a lot of owned stores weaker performance and more operating deleveraging. The solution may be to simply sell Del Taco to a PE firm (like Qdoba) now that the old"
X Link 2025-03-25T19:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$HHH While I would have preferred no transaction I think the transaction announced today is a nice positive for shareholders - it amounts to layering in a management fee of 38bps/year and a 1.5% performance fee. Plus the primary equity raise ($900mm at $100/share) is $5/share of accretion vs. where the stock was trading. Absent Ackman $HHH was trading at around 50% of its NAV reflecting the market's difficulty of underwriting and having the patience for effectively a CRE/land bank hybrid without any real promise of a return of capital. For those long-term oriented the returns seemed good but"
X Link 2025-05-05T13:45Z [----] followers, 12.4K engagements

"$MLP a public company 60% owned by Steve Case trades at around a $300mm valuation with 22k acres of land (incl. 10k acres in a conservation easement). Valuation is $13k/acre or $25k/acre excl. conservation land. Land banks generally suck bc they are capital intensive and long duration i.e. you spend a long time investing in the land to sell it and then you reinvest to develop more land and then hopefully at the end of the project (10-20+ years) there's a big bounty awaiting patient shareholders. $MLP is different than your average land bank. A few years ago Steve Case decided he was going to"
X Link 2025-05-13T23:56Z [----] followers, 43K engagements

"Its hard to be excited about single name stock ideas when you can just buy SPACs and make money consistently every day. Hopefully this cycle is similar to 2020-2021 in which case maybe we are in the 2nd or 3rd inning"
X Link 2025-06-20T23:56Z [----] followers, 12K engagements

"Random holiday afternoon musing- would you rather be 100% long highly leveraged equities or 200% long a basket of high quality unleveraged equities 100% long lev. equities 200% long unlev. equities 100% long lev. equities 200% long unlev. equities"
X Link 2026-02-17T00:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$FPH has taken a breather as the market fully digests that [----] land sales will be down vs [----] as the business begins its transition from Irvine to Valencia/SF. If you parse through the conference call transcript it's clear that $FPH will be nicely FCF positive in [----] ($175mm+ of cash from ops vs. $125mm of development capex in Valencia/SF) excluding the maturity of the Gateway note and any potential (huge) recovery from the $TTEK litigation. I believe $FPH will be have $500mm+ of cash by YE26 with $700mm+ of liquidity. So why is the company still hoarding all this cash The simple answer is"
X Link 2026-02-06T18:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"First we tried to buy enough to matter for the funds but the company had only $25m for sale and there was no reasonable prospect of buying enough to matter. Our typical position size for stocks today is $1.5 billion or more. Such a small position would still require investment team time but without any impact on our returns. I have not bought a public stock in [--] years as doing so requires compliance approval. In this case I sought and obtained approval. I did so because I thought it was a good investment with the added benefit of supporting Israel at a challenging time for the country"
X Link 2024-03-26T22:50Z 2M followers, 18.1K engagements

"$BWEL share count down by 7k since 6/30/25"
X Link 2026-01-16T17:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$VSNT spin cant find a bid. The trends look awful but the multiple looks dirt cheap. Anyone like"
X Link 2026-01-07T14:54Z [----] followers, 18.2K engagements

"Apologies for the chicken scratch"
X Link 2026-01-06T18:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

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