@leveredturtle Avatar @leveredturtle leveredturtle

leveredturtle posts on X about $sesto, uber, $uber, $spgi the most. They currently have [---] followers and [--] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence stocks 42.31% finance 38.46% technology brands 21.15% cryptocurrencies 5.77% travel destinations 1.92% countries 1.92% automotive brands 1.92%

Social topic influence $sesto #2, uber 11.54%, $uber 9.62%, $spgi 7.69%, business 7.69%, investment 7.69%, $cprt #118, $ccrn 5.77%, flow 5.77%, $wcn 5.77%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @billackman @realroseceline @resourcebull @clonertopower10 @alifarhat79 @alexmoazed @leveredturtlenotep186156293r2a69hvutmmediumiosutmsourcenotesshareaction @enigmaticstocks @sal13836 @marcslans @pythiar @compoundaverage @bramvgenechten @jerrycap @monopolyeconomy @maxwellhouse99 @leveredturtlenotep169617553 @jamietreliving @cdinewsletter @qualityinvest5

Top assets mentioned Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) S&P Global Inc (SPGI) Copart, Inc. (CPRT) Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) GFL Environmental Holdings Inc. (GFL) Waste Management, Inc. (WM) Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) Etsy Inc (ETSY) Coca-Cola Co (KO) TINY (TINY) Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A) Acushnet Holdings Corp. (GOLF) Hershey Co (HSY) Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST) MAXIMUS, Inc. (MMS) Bitcoin (BTC) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"I wrote about a small cap with: 60% insider ownership Five CEOs since [----] Special situation resulting from a merger + new franchisor agreement 95%+ FCF conversion [--] year track record of market share gains Link below https://open.substack.com/pub/leveredturtle/p/a-canadian-multi-bagger-in-the-makingr=2a69hv&utm_medium=ios https://open.substack.com/pub/leveredturtle/p/a-canadian-multi-bagger-in-the-makingr=2a69hv&utm_medium=ios"
X Link 2025-02-25T02:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Second Pret opened in Torontos financial district $aw.to"
X Link 2026-01-06T22:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"The second Pret location in Toronto is alive well and wonderfully located. $AW.TO is making some exciting yet carefully planned moves that will yield considerable results over the long-term. I wrote about a small cap with: 60% insider ownership Five CEOs since [----] Special situation resulting from a merger + new franchisor agreement 95%+ FCF conversion [--] year track record of market share gains Link below https://t.co/sxZfiNMpy8 I wrote about a small cap with: 60% insider ownership Five CEOs since [----] Special situation resulting from a merger + new franchisor agreement 95%+ FCF conversion 20"
X Link 2026-01-30T04:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Cycling between purchasing $CPRT $SPGI and $UBER over the past few days and will continue to do so as Ive been 40% cash Lots of quality on sale if you have a long time horizon"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"About 15% of my portfolio is $ses.to 10% is $gfl and a smaller 5% bet is on $cprt - feels nice to own a few more hard asset/industrial businesses in this day and age- that is until the AI narrative somehow contorts itself against these too lol"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:56Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Did I just shoot myself in the foot or what About 15% of my portfolio is $ses.to 10% is $gfl and a smaller 5% bet is on $cprt - feels nice to own a few more hard asset/industrial businesses in this day and age- that is until the AI narrative somehow contorts itself against these too lol About 15% of my portfolio is $ses.to 10% is $gfl and a smaller 5% bet is on $cprt - feels nice to own a few more hard asset/industrial businesses in this day and age- that is until the AI narrative somehow contorts itself against these too lol"
X Link 2026-02-12T22:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"$CCRN - from todays WSJ article Ballad Health a rural health system in Appalachia currently has [---] positions in nursing it is trying to fill largely due to higher demand from patients as they age into Medicare in their 60s https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/healthcare-jobs-have-become-the-engine-of-americas-labor-market-114ffd34st=qLe77g&reflink=article_copyURL_share https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/healthcare-jobs-have-become-the-engine-of-americas-labor-market-114ffd34st=qLe77g&reflink=article_copyURL_share"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@AlexMoazed @BillAckman Take your point but isnt this akin to a banker who issues $100MM worth of loans generating $2.2mm in NIR and is taking home $100-200k Isnt this broadly how employment (quotes bc/contractor) works everywhere"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Wrote about $CCRN. I think with $3 in cash per share (1/3 mkp) post-covid industry finding its feet and a long track record of profitability it is quite compelling. Free to read: https://substack.com/@leveredturtle/note/p-186156293r=2a69hv&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action https://substack.com/@leveredturtle/note/p-186156293r=2a69hv&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action"
X Link 2026-01-29T12:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@resourcebull Not well researched but began looking into Olin. Big part of their business is chlorine which is insulated from Chinese oversupply because Chlorine is too dangerous to ship over distance - markets compete regionally. Seems like an interesting area to do more research"
X Link 2026-02-01T15:56Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Not my most insightful take but doesnt $Etsy spit off like $600-$700mm of FCF On a now $4.7bn mkp Buying back $750mm of stock I know Covid pulled fwd tons of demand mkt place saturation ceo leaving are all real headwinds. But is there rly no terminal value in this biz"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"If we get $CSU style capitulation on $SPGI I may have to get uncomfortably concentrated "
X Link 2026-02-11T18:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@ENIGMATICSTOCKS Take your points my views: - Net debt is $1.6bn against $600-700mm FCF - not nothing but far from massive debt relative to repayment ability - Do not know why Id price a marketplace biz on PE vs. FCF. Especially given negative working capital dynamics"
X Link 2026-02-12T05:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@sal13836 @marc_slans @PythiaR If Im not mistaken a lot of volume declines is purposefully shedding off lower margin contracts. But to be fair FCF multiple is generous. Not insane for these assets and low risk of permanent capital loss with growth but it is generous"
X Link 2026-02-12T23:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"My CoPilot at work quite literally just replied to me speaking an English and Russian mix unprompted (Im Canadian) and youre worried $SPGI is dead and $UBER will be replaced by AVs"
X Link 2026-02-12T23:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@CompoundAverage @BramVGenechten @JerryCap Was going to say this. Im long $SPGI but think this is more to do with this than anything else"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"I cant help but refer to the lesson from Chris Mayers [---] Baggers - owning equities throughout WWII turned out to be one of the best assets to own (for the winning / surviving country). In fact markets bottomed in the middle of the war oddly aligning with inflection points"
X Link 2026-02-15T18:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$UBER looks like a very interesting investment as we enter [----] 🧵"
X Link 2024-12-31T23:59Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$UBER is trading for just over 20x unlevered FCF with guidance to grow EBITDA at 30-40% CAGR over the next [--] years. UBER has seen significant recent operating leverage and earnings growth which proves the companys ability to scale profitably at high rates"
X Link 2025-01-01T00:01Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"For example year to date operating cash flow grew 56% or by $2.6bn on the back of a $4.6bn revenue increase That means incremental operating cash flow margins were 56%"
X Link 2025-01-01T00:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"UBER also has several levers for growth including: - Uber mobility (significant international runway) - Uber Eats - Uber One (monthly recurring membership with [--] million members that has grown at 70% YoY most recently) - Advertising revenues on the UBER platform & more"
X Link 2025-01-01T00:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Qualitatively I also view Uber as a strong business benefiting from three distinct advantages: - Brand: I believe Uber has become synonymous with calling a ride. I believe this provides social proof for Ubers services particularly a service that requires consumer trust"
X Link 2025-01-01T00:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Network effects are self explanatory. They have the drivers customers and strong selection in delivery. Finally I believe Uber has a toll road type of advantage - often consumers NEED Ubers services in their day to day life. You dont plan an Uber (usually) - you need it"
X Link 2025-01-01T00:16Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"In conclusion I think Uber today at just over 20x free cash flow provides the opportunity to own an excellent business at a fair price. Not investment advice - do your own due diligence"
X Link 2025-01-01T00:18Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@MonopolyEconomy Generate ocf* And therefore can start building real economic value once it lapses a few of these immediate challenges. Macro remains uncertain but who can guess macro. I like companies priced for death that seem to have a decent chance of making it out"
X Link 2025-03-11T11:50Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Social proof is a concept hammered by Munger most famously around Coca-Cola; the actions or consumption by others is viewed as the correct behaviour especially in uncertain situations (what to drink or whose car to get into)"
X Link 2025-03-30T05:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$Uber has tremendous social proof with [---] million platform users and [--] billion trips booked in [----]. When consumers make a decision as important whose vehicle to get into a concept like social proof proves to be invaluable. Uber is a verb - thats social proof"
X Link 2025-03-30T05:09Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$tiny often referred to as the Berkshire Hathaway of internet businesses released a corporate update in conjunction with an acquisition announcement Tiny announced a US$66MM acquisition of a DJ software company (Serato) and preliminary F2024 results. I have mixed feelings:"
X Link 2025-04-01T00:00Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"@maxwellhouse99 A&W Food Services of Canada. 60% insider ownership capable management team with low turnover capital light franchise economics and runway for growth in core business and rollout of a new brand they won franchise rights to. 10x LFCF with a 6% dividend yield"
X Link 2025-04-26T06:49Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"I discuss $SES.TO $WCN $GOLF and $KITS in the first edition of my watchlist update. Short summary: $SES: great business but is diworsification a risk $GOLF: expensive $WCN: so expensive $KITS high expectns but might not be expensive (growth is hard) https://substack.com/@leveredturtle/note/p-169617553 https://substack.com/@leveredturtle/note/p-169617553"
X Link 2025-08-05T01:41Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@JamieTreliving @CDInewsletter Paying 11x cf for a franchise stream that is incredibly well managed proven to be durable over generations and can compound at 10% for the foreseeable future is special nowadays"
X Link 2025-08-06T04:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@QualityInvest5 The terminal risk to adobes business model being significantly more pronounced along with the fact that users genuinely despise the company makes this quite different than Uber. Although I see the broader strokes you are referencing re: AI risk pressuring the stock"
X Link 2025-09-12T13:43Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Pros: - Small - Long Runway with M&A more meaningful - New CEO could actually be a net positive (he isnt [--]. Coletta also helped improve balance sheet) Cons: - Dilution (isnt crazy and yes SP is expensive but dont love this) - Expensive - I compare all garb cos to WCN mngmnt"
X Link 2025-09-20T17:45Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@SayNoToTrading I appreciate this perspective a lot. Its a tough battle btwn EV/ebitda and fcf. I agree EV/EBITDA is decent. 15x ltm 13x ntm. But levered fcf is like 30x starting from a small base granted but 30x fcf and 15x ebitda is a big difference investing is hard"
X Link 2025-09-20T18:31Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$TMICC the Magnum Ice Cream Company spin off is interesting. On one hand you have 20% global retail share and historical ROIC 20%+ On the other growth will be msd at best and Unilever will continue dumping shares over time Thing is like 6-7% fcf yield feels cheap"
X Link 2025-12-24T16:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$HSY is interesting but in my view still too expensive currently. While returns on equity are excellent the implied yield on levered free cash flow is still sub 5%. I am sitting patiently hoping to be a shareholder at a better valuation. Waiting for Willy Wonka prices"
X Link 2025-01-13T01:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$UBER observation While F2024 free cash flow doubled YoY (+$3.5bn) to $7bn invested capital reduced by $700mm to $53bn. Given current run-rate FCF and 30-40% EBITDA growth guidance ROIC could reach 20%-25%+ IF assuming minimal debt/equity raises"
X Link 2025-02-17T18:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@leevalueroach What percentage of your PA are you making this $SWBI at a market cap approximately equal to one good year of OCF is extremely interesting on the other Ive heard qualitatively that theyre losing share to other brands. Over the long-term will cycles get rougher for them"
X Link 2025-09-12T13:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Following 30pct decline in $CWST biz is still at 30x LFCF/14.7x Adj. EBITDA. I love garbage but this multiple contraction & rotation towards higher beta may hopefully mean we see underwritable solid waste cos again. Not yet though. All # US$mms. $wcn $wm $rsg"
X Link 2025-09-20T17:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"A few thoughts - Underwriting in a hot market with over reliance on comps might be a bad idea - when shit rly hits the fan levered fcf matters most - Underwriting on EV/sales is generally radioactive - recent quality compounder selloffs are simply reflecting overpayment"
X Link 2025-11-19T04:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@voided @saylordocs How do you value bitcoin"
X Link 2025-12-26T02:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@ClonerToPower10 @BillAckman @alifarhat79 Thats a 17x PE in two years. If you assume growth remains somewhat robust gets ridiculously cheap fairly soon relative to business quality"
X Link 2025-12-31T20:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@ClonerToPower10 @BillAckman @alifarhat79 29/1.3 = [--] 22/1.3 = 17"
X Link 2025-12-31T20:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@realroseceline I guess the differentiator is capital intensity. Insurers can get good returns still selling through Copart and keeping it capital light. But if there were separate Tesla Waymo Lucid etc. platforms how do their economics get good enough with investment needed in platform +"
X Link 2026-01-10T21:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"I am now a $SES.TO shareholder. I think this is a very unique opportunity to own high-quality waste assets at a 7-8% FCF yield which are likely to continue growing. My thoughts are here: https://open.substack.com/pub/leveredturtle/p/sesto-a-regional-waste-duopoly-atr=2a69hv&utm_medium=ios https://open.substack.com/pub/leveredturtle/p/sesto-a-regional-waste-duopoly-atr=2a69hv&utm_medium=ios"
X Link 2025-09-07T20:16Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"At first blush $ses.to earnings feel fine; sounds like the 20% of the business that is non recurring is marginally weaker in a tougher ICI environment. Revised guidance puts the F2025 FCF yield at 6.5% and EV/EBITDA of about 9.6x (ex. Leases / rent expense adjustments)"
X Link 2025-10-30T13:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$SES.TO renews NCIB to repurchase up to 9% of the company"
X Link 2025-12-15T22:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"In the Stanley D spirit Ive nibbled on $CCRN to learn more. I need to understand why mid cycle fcf wouldnt be possible because at a 180mm EV (excl. $40mm merger fee) this thing is trading near MSD multiples of mid-cycle FCF. Thanks @P_Remarks"
X Link 2026-01-06T17:16Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"I am cautiously optimistic that we will see continued multiple contraction of the major waste players. $WCN $RSG and $WM are all exceptional businesses however price matters - especially free cash flow yield. Also excited to share a new investment in an adjacent space soon"
X Link 2025-09-05T16:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@realroseceline Really well articulated. I want to play devils advocate and get your view on why this analogy is wrong. Would you disagree that Copart is an example of a business where supply is consolidated (insurance) yet the demand aggregators economics remain strong"
X Link 2026-01-10T21:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@realroseceline I feel like the same argument could be made for Copart. Granted they have physical infrastructure and a global auction network but couldnt someone have predicted that Copart loses the power dynamic with insurers ignoring Coparts network and building their own"
X Link 2026-01-10T21:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@jxxxxx_t @resourcebull What etf do you use"
X Link 2026-02-02T01:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

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