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@junkbondinvest Avatar @junkbondinvest junkbondinvestor

Concerns are growing about the private credit market, with warnings that it may be showing similar red flags to the junk bond market of the past. Investors are pouring money into private credit funds, but some are questioning the safety and liquidity of these investments. Several high-profile cases, including the collapse of First Brands, have raised concerns about the sector's risk and potential for widespread defaults.

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Social category influence finance XXXX% stocks XXXX% countries XXXX%

Social topic influence debt #989, $whr #11, tariffs #528, $175m #12, private equity #34, marks #959, money 0.43%, brands 0.43%, $12b #6, playbook XXXX%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @breidcredit @illiquidinsight @crockejo @dkarbowitz @achtera @badvalla40301 @jmoore1123 @yummycenturyegg @ajacksonhole @jonchimpo23 @billackman @leylakuni @mike27590140 @rhymestar1455 @headrushcapital @anchovycapital @russellgates_ @tylerhardt @notusn_capt @bigba11r

Top assets mentioned Whirlpool Corporation (WHR) CVS Health Corp (CVS) BlackRock Inc (BLK) Morgan Stanley (MS) Nexstar Media Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock (NXST) TEGNA Inc. (TGNA)

Top Social Posts #

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"Headline default rate: 1-2% Default rate including distress exchanges/non-accruals: 3-5% The narrative: Defaults remain low"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-07T20:55Z 38K followers, 17.7K engagements

"Secondaries marketed as "liquidity solution" while keeping everything in private markets. The liquidity is just changing which PE fund owns it"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-08-20T18:31Z 38K followers, 6951 engagements

"Whirlpool watching Asian competitors front-run tariffs with promotions: "This wasn't in the America First playbook" Cuts EPS guidance by $2-4. Stock: -XX% $WHR"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-07-28T21:10Z 38K followers, 25.4K engagements

"JPMorgan M&A masterclass: - Buy company for $175M (based on fake data) - Pay $115M to defend sellers who defrauded you (merger agreement says you have to) - Get $X back (she pays XX% of income for XX years post-prison) JPM got a very expensive lesson in due diligence"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-07T17:17Z 38K followers, 64.5K engagements

"Bankruptcy #1 to Bankruptcy #2 in five months. The Spirit restructuring worked perfectly"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-10T20:15Z 38K followers, 11.4K engagements

"PC funds from 2014-2018 already need CVs and recap structures The asset class is barely XX years old and it's already refinancing itself That should tell you something"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-08T14:18Z 38K followers, 12K engagements

"2025 PE deal dynamics: Deal count: -X% y/y Deal value: +19% y/y Deals over $1B: XX% of activity The strategy: Fewer but larger transactions The middle market continues to die quietly"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-13T22:11Z 38K followers, 9863 engagements

"The EM private credit question nobody wants to answer: What happens in a restructuring Asset-backed structure sounds protective until trying to enforce claims against sovereigns in own jurisdictions. Works great until it doesnt. Then we find out what those structures are actually worth"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-07T13:10Z 38K followers, 10.5K engagements

"PE firms this year: Can't find good software deals (AI disruption) Can't invest in healthcare (regulatory nightmare) Can't do industrials (tariffs) What's left Pizza. Always pizza. $PZZA"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-14T22:13Z 38K followers, 25.6K engagements

"PEs strongest quarter since 2021: XXX% Public markets same quarter: XXXX% Private equity just got demolished while charging X and XX to underperform index funds you can buy for 0.03%"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-09-24T20:52Z 38K followers, 19.5K engagements

"CLOs reviewing their exposure to First Brands"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-04T16:16Z 38K followers, 17.3K engagements

"How funny would it be if the thing that finally breaks private credit isnt some hidden illiquid disaster but a widely held BSL with daily marks Nature always finds the simplest path"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-02T13:27Z 38K followers, 56.6K engagements

"Public markets up double digits. Your PE fund flat. Youre stuck defending a 7x levered HVAC roll-up. And still have X years left on lockup"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-09-24T23:12Z 38K followers, 103.1K engagements

"Retail investors added $100B to private credit funds over the past year bringing the total to $213B. Meanwhile BCRED cut its dividend 9%. Major bankruptcies showing hidden exposures. Apollo Ares Blue Owl stocks all down. The money comes in right as the problems show up. Every single time"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-12T15:51Z 38K followers, 79.4K engagements

"Whirlpool pivoting from appliance manufacturer to tariff enforcement whistleblower is exactly the kind of innovation Ive come to expect $WHR"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-09-15T16:35Z 38K followers, 10.2K engagements

"JPMorgan paid $175M for Frank after due diligence that: - Missed X MILLION fake users - Thought BofA was bidding (nope CapOne withdrew same day) - Email blast to "millions of users" yielded XX accounts Peak institutional DD"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-09-30T00:52Z 38K followers, 131.5K engagements

"Democratize access to alternative investments Democratization = selling illiquid high-fee products to people who cant evaluate them right when institutional money is cautious. If PE is such great opportunity institutional allocators would be increasing commitments. Theyre not. So pivot to retail under democratization banner"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-04T20:21Z 38K followers, 18.8K engagements

"Dimon: "One cockroach means more cockroaches" Lipschultz: "Maybe the cockroaches are at JPMorgan. This is syndicated market problems." Meanwhile the stock market has opinions"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-15T21:56Z 38K followers, 17.8K engagements

"Private credit showing XX% historical correlation to leveraged loans. But dont worry its definitely safer because they do more diligence and know the borrowers better"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-14T15:31Z 38K followers, 46.5K engagements

"REITs in July 2025: Hotels XX% discount to NAV healthcare XX% above Avoid travel embrace aging 🤝 Source: S&P"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-08-05T17:13Z 38K followers, 10.4K engagements

"Can't exit PE portfolios Flee to private credit Can't get distributions Flee to private credit Can't justify 2+20 Flee to private credit The solution to everything is. private credit"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-06-17T19:46Z 38K followers, 24.2K engagements

"Agent promoter lender and now bagholder. Jefferies at the center of it all. Not surprising whatsoever"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-09T01:21Z 38K followers, 57.3K engagements

"Public IG bond ETF: +8.1% YTD BDC ETF: -XXX% YTD Getting paid extra to lend to middle-market companies is going great"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-05T22:58Z 38K followers, 23.5K engagements

"Patrick James steps down as First Brands CEO One of the more elusive CEOs in credit markets. Built a multi-billion dollar empire while maintaining no public presence. Couldnt even find a photo of him online. Impressive suspicious or both"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-13T13:23Z 38K followers, 32.5K engagements

"$30 billion in private credit CLOs already this year surpassing last years pace Were packaging illiquid private loans into tradable securities at the fastest pace ever seen The last time we packaged illiquid loans into securities THIS enthusiastically we needed a global bailout. But these are different These are private credit loans not mortgages"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-09-24T23:40Z 38K followers, 71.4K engagements

"Thoma Bravo raises $3.6bn credit fund "focused on enterprise software" Translation: We're going to lend to our own portfolio companies"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-01-21T22:03Z 38K followers, 56.1K engagements

"BDO borrowed $1.3B from Apollo at X% to fund their ESOP BDO gave First Brands clean audit in March First Brands collapsed months later Apollo (BDOs lender) was shorting First Brands debt BDO now laying off staff to manage Apollo debt payments Nothing to see here just normal audit independence"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-11T18:57Z 38K followers, 201.5K engagements

"Despite all the AI datacenter hype datacenter REITs are the worst performing US REIT sector YTD at -XXX% Somehow all the headlines forgot to mention this part"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-03T22:40Z 38K followers, 94.2K engagements

"Junk bond market hits highest supply since 2020 Over 1/3 of new deals trading below par by Friday Even $NRG's $3.65B AI/data center deal (with $6.5B demand) trading underwater You can have too much of a good thing. $HYG $JNK"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-09-26T17:10Z 37.9K followers, 10.5K engagements

"2020: PE firms hire banks for debt deals 2023: PE firms become banks 2025: PE firms underwrite their own deals 2027: PE firms rate their own credit The circle of fees is complete"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-09-25T17:52Z 38K followers, 49.5K engagements

"Howard Marks selling his remaining Oaktree stake right as: - Alternative managers consolidating at record valuations - BlackRock paying $12B+ for competitors - Everyone racing to build credit platforms Guy who made his fortune on distressed debt timing the exit perfectly. Again"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-13T17:52Z 38K followers, 156.1K engagements

"PE liquidity snapshot: 5-year DPI: Worst in 10+ years Hold periods: XXX years average Exits: "Ticking up" (still terrible) Sponsors "delaying exits rather than accept lower valuations" is a nice way to say "trapped" Source: Ropes & Gray"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-07T02:07Z 38K followers, 28.3K engagements

"Brightline secured debt now in the 40s At least the trains look nice.😅"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-06T00:34Z 38K followers, 30.9K engagements

"Office Depot has been restructuring since approximately 2005 Optimizing rightsizing pivoting to B2B merging with OfficeMax spinning off divisionsyou name it X more PE owner. X more turnaround plan. Same result coming"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-09-22T22:49Z 38K followers, 7972 engagements

"Anthelion using large language models to identify "attractive middle market loans" XXX% believable. CLO credit analysis nearly XXX% automatable"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-07-23T14:37Z 38K followers, 11.7K engagements

"Private equity exit dynamics: 2019: XX% of exits sold to other PE firms 2025: XX% PE-to-PE When your industry stops buying from itself the exit queue grows. Source: FT"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-14T15:19Z 38K followers, 40.2K engagements

"Jefferies: Exposure limited to $45M readily absorbable Same weekend: Morgan Stanley requesting redemption from Point Bonita When mgmt says limited and investors head for exits the exposure concern is contagion not direct"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-13T13:14Z 38K followers, 28.6K engagements

"Every single red flag was visible before First Brands raised $12B: ✗ String of bankruptcies in 2000s ✗ Multiple fraud allegations ✗ Professionally scrubbed internet presence ✗ Margins far exceeded competitors They lent billions anyway Must read article by @BondHack @EricGPlatt"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-15T23:35Z 38K followers, 20.1K engagements

"Jefferies on First Brands: The good news: Direct losses appear to be limited to $50M (est.) The bad news: You were their banker for 10+ years The worse news: $2.3B allegedly vanished The worst news: Every potential client now knows this Sometimes being the go-to bank for risky credits has consequences"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-09T16:56Z 38K followers, 50.1K engagements

"Love how media companies are consolidating to serve the XX people still watching linear TV. $NXST $TGNA"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-08-19T13:09Z 37.9K followers, 7156 engagements

"Private credit marketed floating-rate payments as an advantage in any environment until rates started floating down. Now investors are souring. The any environment had a preferred direction"
X Link @junkbondinvest 2025-10-10T17:26Z 38K followers, 10.1K engagements