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@hillery_dan Avatar @hillery_dan Dan Hillery

Dan Hillery and others are discussing the potential of MicroStrategy's (MSTR) preferred stock, particularly STRK and STRF, as a stable source of income and a hedge against market volatility. The conversation highlights the benefits of MSTR's bitcoin-backed fixed income and the potential for capital appreciation in its preferred stock. Analysts are optimistic about the prospects of STRK and STRF, citing their perpetual nature and potential for sustainable, non-decaying income.

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Social category influence cryptocurrencies #1566 finance #5949 stocks XXXX% fashion brands XXXX% countries XXXX% exchanges XXXX%

Social topic influence bitcoin #620, market cap #768, vix #187, bitcoins 0.62%, dip 0.62%, adoption #1354, $btc #2473, upside #75, has been 0.41%, price of #715

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @joshmandell6 @z06z07 @punterjeff @masonfoard @stellareconomy @ryquant @jberneburg @latinasnbtc @80iqmindset @realtrollstein @mstrtruenorth @danieldrunion @macroresurf @realjimchanos @pizzaluv @marktmaxwell @hillerydan @strategy @timkotzman @docstacks

Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA) The XX% Community (99) Rio Tinto plc (RIO) Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Strategy (MSTR) Nakamoto Games (NAKA) Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD)

Top Social Posts #

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"STRC smashes risk adjusted return of SPY here"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-07T17:10Z 20.2K followers, 4529 engagements

"Bitcoin's not dead it's just behaving"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-14T16:52Z 20.2K followers, 3953 engagements

"That's the problem a BTC treasury's only value add IS LEVERAGE. In the old days of MSTR it was cheap leverage funded by free cash flow"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-15T02:16Z 20.2K followers, 24.7K engagements

"Equities Stall Bitcoin Runs. Thanks for playing"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-12T19:40Z 20.2K followers, 4853 engagements

"SPX and BTC correlation may trend lower after this brief dip while equities stall and BTC rips higher in isolation"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-12T20:51Z 20.2K followers, 3694 engagements

"Starting to get expensive I think BTC volatility starts catching up to implied volatility"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-06T19:51Z 20.2K followers, 20.1K engagements

"Dip is also fake because MSTR down less than btc"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-10T18:27Z 20.2K followers, 30.1K engagements

"People are underestimating the implications of a transition to hard money from AI cap ex spend bubble. If Cap ex spend slows and equities eat it most likely there will be significant correction in BTC but it's the slow and steady adoption of hard money that continues to march the price higher over time. No reason to fade this especially with hash rate continuing to climb"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-04T14:36Z 20.2K followers, 5925 engagements

"Still like CLSK best of these 3"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-09T19:01Z 20.2K followers, 10.1K engagements

"Reading back through the STRC prospectus. Upon Strategy's election they are able to redeem above 101/STRC. Pretty much just gives them flexibility to call the equity if the price temporarily runs away quickly without harming shareholders who have enjoyed that price appreciation. I also expect to see the first STRC ATM in the coming weeks. By their wording it is possible that they issue at 99"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-02T15:31Z 20.2K followers, 7652 engagements

"MSTR & BTC Volatility Hurdle Rate When running a securities issuance fund that swaps BTC vol for fixed income returns the issuing corporation must be hyper aware of the volatility of each of their securities. I've talked before about the volatility of STRF & STRK being too high (at least for the time being) for the large majority of professional fixed income investors. STRC is an attempt to flatten out this volatility; a stable principle fixed income instrument that sucks in cash from money market funds. Again it's really a question of volatility which people tend to conflate with risk. When"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-08-11T18:30Z 20.2K followers, 6219 engagements

"Chart on the left is price performance. Chart on the right is Implied Volatility (which is becoming increasingly important as things heat up). Right now I am sitting in calls for the two which are the lowest in both metrics. Favorite remains CLSK even at these prices. They do it right no dilution lots of power small market cap right on the cusp of AI transition colocated power. I'll take that bet over the ones which have already shown all their cards. Bet on uncertainty sell the news"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-12T22:22Z 20.2K followers, 4983 engagements

"A XX CAGR asset doubles every XXX years on average. BTC terminal CAGR. Thanks for playing"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-13T00:07Z 20.2K followers, 83.9K engagements

"I'd argue that with BTC in a chop range for the last 8ish months it's more likely that institutions will be willing to up allocations leading into the end of the year. If we were definitively above all time highs this would be a more difficult allocation"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-12T19:37Z 20.2K followers, 4623 engagements

"STRC still approaching the sweet spot"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-08T14:37Z 20.2K followers, 3270 engagements

"Buy Bitcoin"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-12T23:13Z 20.2K followers, 3409 engagements

"The abundance of software and intelligence should make it ever more evident that proof of work is the only way to create true digital scarcity. Energy must be sacrificed for security and consensus or else there is actually no value locked in an immutable ledger since in an abundant world energy is always finite even if it's cost does in fact trend to zero. If energy has no value then nothing has value maybe attention actually"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-07T21:32Z 20.2K followers, 4426 engagements

"This is likely the cost of insurance shooting up from a spike with XX% daily move"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-12T18:59Z 20.2K followers, 8779 engagements

"There are certain winners which you want to hold through fear and uncertainty there are others where the upside no longer exists and the downside and risk outweighs the upside. In those scenarios sell"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-15T02:10Z 20.2K followers, 10.9K engagements

"To get BTC leverage/ outperformance you do not need to issue equity. That's actually counterproductive. All you need to do is create a durable leverage package then enter at 1X MNAV and enjoy capital appreciation as your stake outperforms BTC. MNAV premium equity sales is a capital markets arb that is beneficial to holders who entered at lower premiums as they are accreting BTC/share. Sure early in the run up of a BTC acquisition strategy participants entering at high MNAVs can get yield above that of the MNAV at which they purchased but MNAV is effectively a risk premium and should be"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-09-26T19:28Z 20.2K followers, 6842 engagements

"Barbell investing but with Bitcoin as the bedrock"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-13T23:17Z 20.2K followers, 5893 engagements

"Everyone underestimating melt up scenario with bullish policy into unprecedented AI CapEx spend. Commodities perform in line with PMI's. I'll take the digital commodity"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-09-29T16:53Z 20.2K followers, 6428 engagements

"Vix up spy up gold up melt up. Hold BTC"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-07T14:54Z 20.2K followers, 8427 engagements

"There is a world in which we have a short term glut in chip manufacturing but a shortage in grid infrastructure and energy. What this does to broader equities markets no clue but it should push PMI's higher. All plays into the same idea that inflation risk is higher than employment risk here. Hard scarce assets and those companies which hold control over them"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-07T21:35Z 20.2K followers, 3968 engagements

"In this forsaken BTC treasuries space being able to pivot quick has been an absolute necessary. I don't care what people say about Long term vision this that and the next thing. Investing with this equities is denominated in BTC and if you are losing value in BTC terms you have to be very careful. Especially with all sorts of deal structures getting more complicated defensive is the way to look at these things and risk allocation. What is the possible upside here vs. what is the possible downside. If the possible downside if XX% relative to BTC proceed with extreme caution is the way I look"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-12T19:44Z 20.2K followers, 19.8K engagements

"This dip is for buying"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-10T17:32Z 20.2K followers, 10.4K engagements

"Bitcoin vs. VIX Using Equity Volatility to hedge BTC Risk: This first chart tabulates the rolling correlation between the VIX (CBOE volatility index) and Bitcoin. Negative correlation means that if the price of BTC goes down then the price of the VIX goes up. The chart below shows that there is a small but statically significant anti-correlation between the two. Therefore while VIX calls could hedge against BTC downside it's not very effective as a strict hedge. Now below is the correlation between the SPX and the VIX. This value is closer to -XXX which is expected. This means that when the"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-12T23:56Z 20.2K followers, 3509 engagements

"Stravera Capital Research Note Ticker: MARA (Marathon Digital Holdings) Date: September XX 2025 Initiate Long: $XX Entry Base Target: $XX (71% Upside) Bull Target: $XX (386% Upside) Investment Thesis Marathon Digital ($MARA) is the convex liquid focal point among Bitcoin minersan attractor in end-cycle tournament play where failing to own it is a dominant strategy. With a 50000 BTC treasury ($5.65B at $113K BTC) sub-$33K cash costs and the deepest options liquidity in the sector MARA offers leveraged Bitcoin convexity poised for gamma squeezes and NAV re-ratings as the cycle transitions into"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-09-23T21:08Z 20.2K followers, 23K engagements

"How STRC redemptions works (Strategy Preferred Equity). Let's clarify. STRC may be issued at anytime at any price much like the common equity. Strategy has stated guidance that they will not issue STRC at prices other than $99-$101 in order to maintain the price stability of the equity. Now for redemptions. STRC may be called at anytime by Strategy for a redemption price of $XXX or greater. If the redemption price is higher than $XXX that price will be included in the redemption formula. The redemption date must be 3-60 business days after the redemption note is sent to shareholders (which is"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-02T16:46Z 20.2K followers, 16.3K engagements

"Pigeon is right never let your edge fade by letting yourself go"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-12T00:36Z 20.2K followers, 10.9K engagements

"Markets have called bluff. We live in a banana republic"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-12T22:25Z 20.2K followers, 17.5K engagements

"Bitcoin's market cap is not large enough to necessitate volatility this low forever"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-13T00:04Z 20.2K followers, 5723 engagements

"With a rolling XX day correlations of XXX QQQ and BTC do not move in lock step by any means. I think there is a real possibility of another couple months of aggressive outperformance or catch up of BTC relative to our favorite AI spac index QQQ"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-13T21:38Z 20.2K followers, 4312 engagements

"Will reassess my end of year call spreads mid to late October. Right now I am targeting a 140k BTC price early December with slight increase in Implied Volatility. This is the expected payoff of a one of my call spreads apart of my ladder. I'll take that bet over the next couple months so long as we get moving within the next XX days"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-09-26T18:47Z 20.2K followers, 2978 engagements

"Sat Oct X 2025 Bull Market Update. - Why the melt up continues. - MSTR Pref Stock Pricing - Jobs Data & Rate Cut Expectations - TA is trash BTC adoption + Power Law + Macro Overlay - Miner overview exponential position but maybe not worth it. So long as the pull from GLD/BTC and QQQ/BTC exerts upwards pressure on the price we are on stable footing"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-04T14:33Z 20.2K followers, 19.1K engagements

"The inevitable liquidity of strc will likely be the most important factor in stabilizing its price"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-08T22:43Z 20.2K followers, 4246 engagements

"Step X read STRF prospectus Step X determine whether or not Strategy's Bitcoin works for the STRF shareholder Step X look at STRF yield Step X Buy STRF"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-13T16:43Z 20.2K followers, 11.9K engagements

"A put on MSTR is pretty much a credit default swap on the prefs"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-08-30T16:29Z 20.2K followers, 8628 engagements

"STRC smashes risk adjusted return of QQQ"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-07T17:10Z 20.2K followers, 9623 engagements

"Strategy's STRC volume that's weird. @MSTRTrueNorth STRC's volume relative to equities with roughly $100B market cap. Examples: -American Tower (2.4M shares $98.4B market cap) -Rio Tinto (2.1M shares $101.7B market cap) -Prologis (1.5M shares $101.1B market cap) -Lockheed Martin (1.1M shares $100.0B market cap) Volume-to-Market Cap Ratios: STRC: XXXX% (2.6M shares / $2.8B market cap) MSTR : XXXX% (13.5M shares / $106.5B market cap) Average $100B stock: XXXX% STRC has the type of volume to go the distance"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-08-06T16:08Z 20.2K followers, 28.5K engagements

"@IIICapital No they should focus on generating revenue and not diluting shareholders"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-12T23:02Z 20.2K followers, 4403 engagements

"Strategy Preferred Equity Vs. Traditional Corporate Debt"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-09T13:36Z 20.2K followers, 87.7K engagements

"Cycles broken Power Law Trend Trajectory & Energy"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-14T16:46Z 20.2K followers, 7921 engagements

"Contrarian opinion Strategy prefs don't get crushed in a bear market. MSTR common probably crushed in a bear market"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-10T04:38Z 20.2K followers, 13.5K engagements

"I am surprised the market didn't immediately fade this statement. Could be a result of there being pent up leverage in the equities market specifically for retail names indicated by VIX creeping higher with the SPX creeping higher"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-12T19:38Z 20.2K followers, 5203 engagements

"Strategy's pref ex dividend date occurs next week. Setting up some trades Tuesday Sep X 2025"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-09-09T04:26Z 20.2K followers, 11.8K engagements

"BTC Price in Log Scale vs. ISM PMI (Business cycle) If you want exponential overbought cycle tops you need the business cycle to overheat or at least experience expansion. I like Bitcoin's price where it is today. We are yet to see the expansion in the business cycle which could lead to an exponential top that would result in the downside risk in BTC outweighing the potential upside. We remain marching along the power law trend line a happy medium with the gravitational pull of QQQ Gold rising PMI's in the back of Inflation and liquidity aiming us directionally up"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-13T03:39Z 20.2K followers, 4522 engagements

"So long as BTC is compared to equities we have lots and lots of room to run obviously also going up forever"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-04T14:34Z 20.2K followers, 9524 engagements

"Bull market continues will BTC/gold and BTC/qqq stay depressed. Really isnt that complicated. TA doesnt matter right now thank you for your attention to this matter. Looking at leverage positioning and call skew / implied volatility everything else is noise"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-04T02:07Z 20.2K followers, 5541 engagements

"Mostly Bitcoin Then a small basket of stuff that could outperform Bitcoin a lot"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-10T04:33Z 20.2K followers, 11.1K engagements

"September XX 2025 Dear Stravera Capital LP's and to whom this letter may be of interest. This months letter focuses on recession risk PMIs the new AI business cycle and the Bitcoin markets temperature. The recent underperformance of Bitcoin relative to the Nasdaq has been disconcerting. By analyzing Bitcoin cycles in the context of the business cycle the past nine months of underperformance become more understandable. With gold and equities breaking out Ill outline below why the trend remains positive. If I believed there were serious downside risks to the business cycle or particularly to"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-09-29T02:29Z 20.2K followers, 18.9K engagements

"Having SECURED convertible notes on the balance sheet doesn't help"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-13T16:33Z 20.2K followers, 10.2K engagements

"Weak jobs are bullish long term BTC through 2026 cycles are completely over"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-14T13:54Z 20.2K followers, 8399 engagements

"Perplexity just cranks data science for you incredible. Just last two summers ago I was manually downloading CSV files and writing python scripts to clean and compare data. Some simple analysis would take days things are much different now. I can have X different data science projects running in the background. Insane"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-12T22:24Z 20.2K followers, 7122 engagements

"People looking for the next collapse in BTC price from 120k will not be vindicated. You need max liquidity + max narrative + max leverage + starting down an unpredicted monetary tightening schedule. For BTC to face monster correction we need unsustainable move upwards. Follow up: Right now Bitcoin = Boring. People are calling it a shitty debasement hedge compared to GLD which is pretty much a meme coin right now. That tends to be a good point to enter. It takes max conviction to bet on volatility when there is none"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-09-10T01:49Z 20.2K followers, 10.3K engagements

"Only thing green is the Vix"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-14T13:54Z 20.2K followers, 5418 engagements

"STRC Volume: Total Trading Days since IPO: XX days Average Daily Volume: 811534 shares Total Volume Traded: XXXX million shares since IPO With an average daily turnover rate of XXX% the estimated hold duration is approximately XXXX days. Added bonus was STRC STRF & STRK's listing on Robinhood today"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-02T16:31Z 20.2K followers, 8969 engagements

"Share buybacks for a BTC treasury is a defense mechanism. It's not offense it's not even really that productive unless financed through operating income thanks"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-12T19:48Z 20.2K followers, 3531 engagements

"O.9 mnav for a spac that holds BTC with no operating company and expensive payrolls and corporate risk and no leverage is not deep value"
X Link @hillery_dan 2025-10-14T14:01Z 20.2K followers, 23K engagements