@haridigresses Avatar @haridigresses hari

hari posts on X about this is, in the, ai, company the most. They currently have [-----------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance technology brands #1997 stocks social networks countries exchanges vc firms celebrities currencies travel destinations

Social topic influence this is, in the, ai, company, open ai #24, if you, has been, money, $googl, investment

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @ericbahn @pitdesi @garrytan @levie @lessin @caplightdata @paulg @jasonlk @bgurley @nikunj @tracecohen @autographhr @mercury @anothercohen @credistick @lulumeservey @deanpreston @devahaz @datarade @frantzfries

Top assets mentioned Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) DoorDash Inc. (DASH) Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Salesforce Inc (CRM) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Founders after a Series A fundraise in summer 2022"
X Link 2022-09-22T04:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@sulemanali These are my [--] largest public mkt positions (plus $FRGE and $COIN). Big believer in $GTLB $OKTA $TWLO $ASAN $HCP $SQ $JAMF $DDOG especially. There are some others ($CRWD for eg) that I believe in but are rich acc to my valuation approach http://hariraghavan.com/pcg http://hariraghavan.com/pcg"
X Link 2023-03-05T20:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"This quote drives me nuts. The US filing system is a travesty thanks only to lobbying from TurboTax and H&R Block. The IRS already knows most filers taxes. Let people autofile. Shorting $INTU. (I find myself agreeing with Elizabeth Warren on this; its a confusing feeling.)"
X Link 2023-05-16T23:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@jamesbulltard7 Whats the growth rate GM% Have market comps changed In the absence of that talking about revenue vs share price is moot. They were growing topline & gross profit 20% end of [----]. Vs revenue is up 10% & gross profit is flat end of [----]. $AMZN is overvalued at the moment"
X Link 2023-05-21T16:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@devahaz Starbucks has much lower gross margin than them. The others you listed arent public but for reference: - Starbucks has $225k in avg gross profit / store / year - Chipotle has $500-600k Their unit economics can absorb less property damage and slippage than BB J&J Philz etc"
X Link 2023-05-23T02:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@rrhoover Trader Joes Green Dragon sauce is a solid substitute"
X Link 2023-07-10T22:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Seller agents are key to project managing a sale. Buyers agents are at best unnecessary (even the good ones). They literally never do any of the below things definitely not better than an AI trained on local data could. (Ive worked with [--] agents to buy + sell [--] times.)"
X Link 2023-07-11T02:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Very excited to share more about an angel fund I've been working on with @aspec00. investing in startups that put work on autopilot. We've worked to make it possible for any accredited investor to participate. ✨👇"
X Link 2023-07-15T20:22Z [----] followers, 19.6K engagements

"Why us [--]. We believe in founder/operator-led funds. We're founders builders operators. who just happen to invest. [--]. We have a proven track record (6x+ TVPI 50%+ IRR backed [--] unicorns). [--]. Our large network lets us source great deals + help portfolio cos easily"
X Link 2023-07-15T20:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@stephsmithio @clawrence I think this has to include the newly emergent variations garlic mayo chipotle mayo etc"
X Link 2023-07-19T22:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"New Relic sold this week for $6.5B. Why $6.5B PE firms value via a discounted cashflow analysis (DCF). But what if you dont have time to (or dont know how to) run a full DCF Use the SaaS Rule of [--]. Revenue Multiple = [--] x NRR x (Gross Margin + [--] x Growth Rate) 🧵👇"
X Link 2023-08-02T15:09Z [----] followers, 16.4K engagements

"Worth noting: in the last [--] years Uber's market cap is up $40B but share price is flat. 2015: $60B premoney $48.77 / share. Today: $100B market cap $47 / share. That's $40B burned away on dilution: capital-raising + stock-based compensation. It still surprises me how accurate this is across industries growth rates and stages: https://t.co/HDjrvRwX1m https://t.co/ZtMgqa9O4r It still surprises me how accurate this is across industries growth rates and stages: https://t.co/HDjrvRwX1m https://t.co/ZtMgqa9O4r"
X Link 2023-08-02T15:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@andrewparker I will shill my multiple because it works better than P/E 😂. $WM's $80B EV is 6x multiple of gross profit adjusting for growth rate which is roughly the S&P average. $AAPL's $2.8T EV at a 14x multiple of gross profit adjusting for growth rate. Literally off the charts"
X Link 2023-08-16T23:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@datarade Id argue results disagree 🤷♂"
X Link 2023-08-18T12:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I mean give me a hard one. In the last 10-12 years $GPN is up 4-5x. Stripe is what 500x since their Series A in that timeframe In the last [--] years $GPN is flat. Even with their recent lower round Stripe is up 2.5x in that time. The true apples to apples comparison is gross profit. (Processing volumes revenue net income are all irerlevant for comparison.) GPN is at roughly 2x Stripe's gross profit but they have a 10-year head start / have been at it twice as long. They also have 3x as many employees. Stripe will lap them in the next 2-3 years"
X Link 2023-08-18T13:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Theres a lot of fun legal names of famous startups. Instacart is Maplebear Stripe used to be SlashDevSlashFinance Airbnb started as Airbed and Breakfast Slack was Tiny Speck Zenefits was YourPeople Lyfts brand was originally Zimride Amazon was Cadabra"
X Link 2023-08-25T21:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@frantzfries I would heavily editorialize this by adding gross margin. Its much more impressive to get to $1b at 70% gross margin (moderna) than 10% (Valero). Gross margin is a proxy for adding value to the equation so IMO gross profit / employee is a much better signal of value creation"
X Link 2023-08-28T17:35Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"@Welp_I_Tried2 @frantzfries @TurnerNovak Ha said something to a slightly different but similar effect"
X Link 2023-08-28T20:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Im not saying its more important but how would you introduce capex into a discussion on per-employee value creation in a non-distracting way Of course if youre discussing ROIC thats great and capex is obviously critical there. But thats about financial leverage an important bit different dimension altogether. Im just focusing on the topic of this thread being value creation / employee which is intrinsically tied to operating leverage and for that gross profit / margin is the key financial statement metric IMO"
X Link 2023-08-29T05:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"1. VC after slow-rolling a founder who now has term sheets from Sequoia Founders Fund and Accel. [--]. Recruiter after slow-rolling an engineer who now has offers from DoorDash Airbnb and Meta. [--]. Me on every wedding dance floor"
X Link 2023-08-30T22:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@datarade I hear you that its not many (Zoom Airbnb Square) but thats more about perverse prioritization of growth due to low interest rates rather than any sort of collusive racket. Show me the incentive and Ill show you the behavior. If you want to blame anyone blame the Fed"
X Link 2023-09-02T23:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@dennishegstad [--] * (1 + CAGR)2 * $4M * GM% So if 50% gross margin and growing 50% then $18M If 20% gross margin and flat then $3.2M If doubling every year at 70% GM then $50M if helpful"
X Link 2023-09-08T18:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@MattPostSaysHi Every day here is the freaking Super Bowl I mean US Open"
X Link 2023-09-11T05:44Z [----] followers, 58.3K engagements

"It carries what Ive come to think of as the n of [--] premium. There are a small handful of companies that trade at 2x fair value (accounting for moat etc). Apples one Teslas another. After losing a lot of money going long and short buying puts and calls I just stay away. I built a calculator to simplify the DCF process and theyre both literally 2x off the charts. if youre curious.)"
X Link 2023-09-12T22:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"This is why we've never invested in "AI companies" at Using LLMs (or AWS or web3 or Postgres) is a technology choice. It's a magical tool but what are you doing with it You have a bazooka but if you point it at the ground it blows up in your face"
X Link 2023-09-13T15:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@dustingetz Youre quoting Nathan Latka grifter extraordinaire as your source I hope dont mean the things youre saying in plain English because they come across as malice and glee"
X Link 2023-09-17T05:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@rajsarkar Well revenue growth rate is obviously a critical input into valuation. And on the profitability point Id guess that the latest layoff gets them quite close to breakeven. (640 FTEs * $250k fully loaded = $160M in headcount cost; 80% GM on $300M should leave $80M in room for"
X Link 2023-09-20T16:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@Rebrand_As_Y Its (finally) fairly valued. Their gross margins are very mediocre. Growing 20% their enterprise value is 9x Gross Profit that seems about right. Unless theyre insanely sticky (eg net dollar retention 120%) they shouldnt get much more than that"
X Link 2023-09-22T03:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Dont get me wrong premiums are definitely up in the last 10+ years but its nowhere close to $20k+ in premiums per person. Whether large group small group or PEO average premium should be $7-12k / covered person for a Gold plan (unless youre covering Platinum and/or a much wider range of benefits a la FAANG companies). Yes fully loaded is 20% but half of that is payroll taxes and other amortized costs (and not germane to the claim of $22k in premiums)"
X Link 2023-10-01T04:20Z [----] followers, 11.8K engagements

"@iamjakestream Its like the 13th floor on elevators; we now go straight from Series A to Series C"
X Link 2023-10-03T14:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@aspec00 Yeah this is one of the two big reason a startup is easier with a cofounder. (Other being division of responsibilities esp between product and sales.) And yeah dunno how much worse it would have been without my SO. Probably completely impossible for me at least"
X Link 2023-10-21T03:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Yeah I got prescribed some but I really try to avoid medication and self regulate instead unless I see no other way. Allegra has worked like a charm but Im trying to take that only as-needed. Frequency is down though. Bad flare ups have gone from every two days to maybe every five days now. Should hopefully be gone in as few weeks (the bulk of the stressful context has passed too)"
X Link 2023-10-21T11:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@datarade Agree that all of these are huge problems but there are certain structural advantages (geopolitics inertia of growth in US economy tech startup hub natural resources) that will help US dynamism (despite the best efforts of government / bureaucrats to sabotage)"
X Link 2023-10-25T15:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"There are some really weird disconnects in the stock market right now. $HIMS @wearehims is nearly doubling YoY is cash flow positive and is trading at an enterprise value of 1.5x sales and 2x gross profit. What am I missing here Already long but thinking of a bigger bet"
X Link 2023-11-03T18:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Agreed with pretty much all of this. Heres another one: if your endowment is greater than $250k / enrolled student (adjusted over time for tuition inflation) Then student loans must be made from the endowment balance sheet. Not federal / private lenders"
X Link 2023-11-10T14:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"If you havent checked out @copilotmoney and you care at all about managing your personal in/outflows go check it out right now. Im doubly long this set of events thanks to a) investing in Copilot and b) going short @Intuit. 🔥 🚀"
X Link 2023-11-11T22:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"BREAKING: leaked texts from OpenAI board WhatsApp Ilya Sat 4:53 PM PT Lets slow down. Satya is a big cricket fan. India looks certain to win the World Cup. Satya is mad now but hell be in a good mood tomorrow. Adam Sat 4:54 PM PT sgtm. genius Ilya Sun 7:58 AM PT shit"
X Link 2023-11-19T16:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@gokulr I would posit that an even better predictor than either (revenue growth or FCF) would be gross profit growth"
X Link 2023-11-19T23:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The OpenAI saga is as verbose as ChatGPTs answers. Maybe the entertainment value is worth it or should we just add a custom prompt to shorten the storyline"
X Link 2023-11-21T21:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"If the company was destroyed the boards mission would be fulfilled. Crazy quote But not if you put her judgment in the context that she has [--] years of work experience (mostly at think tanks). Someone with that experience no matter how smart and well-intentioned is not remotely qualified to oversee one of the most complex and important companies of our time. To be fair this is a big miss by those who appointed her to the board in the first place (presumably including Sam / Greg / Ilya)"
X Link 2023-11-22T02:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@zachtratar Id imagine that it would only agree with her statement if it seemed clear that the trajectory of the company would lead to a catastrophic / unsafe AI no"
X Link 2023-11-22T05:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@bsierakowski @Jason Yeah this and the single-take episode of season one were peak television. Only other recent show with that many iconic episodes was Bojack IMO"
X Link 2023-11-28T04:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"By far the biggest hidden gem if you live in the Bay Area is Alpha Design in Berkeley. Cheaper more comfortable faster (2-3 weeks not 10-16 weeks) infinitely more customizable (fabric cushion firmness dimensions even including leg height to fit our roomba) incredibly friendly people you support a local business and made in the US (SoCal). Ive been in Miami [--] years now and I still regret selling our couch before we moved. RH Outlet or on sale online (happens often) can be very good bang if you can snag a good piece (YMMV). I like Z Gallerie too but didnt usually like the price/quality ratio of"
X Link 2023-11-29T04:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@kelp Dunno -- this is exactly the problem but I search for "Payroll Tax Guide abstractops" which is a subset of the literal title of this blog post and it doesn't even show up in the results which seems. abysmal. cc @Ghost https://blog.abstractops.com/payroll-tax-reg-guide/ https://blog.abstractops.com/payroll-tax-reg-guide/"
X Link 2023-12-05T18:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Ghost @kelp I see buffers blog is hosted at Is this the main problem We do have a reasonable number of backlinks but all going to not (which is the ghost site). http://blog.abstractops.com http://AbstractOps.com http://buffer.com/resources http://blog.abstractops.com http://AbstractOps.com http://buffer.com/resources"
X Link 2023-12-05T20:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Shutting down a company is hard. It's going to be happening a lot in late [----] / [----]. There are almost no resources on how to navigate this. We hope to make this process a little easier today with Epilogue - how to dissolve a company"
X Link 2023-12-21T18:12Z [----] followers, 29.4K engagements

"PSA: if you can file the board consents to dissolve before the end of Dec [--] you should really try to do so -- otherwise you'll have to file franchise taxes and income tax for [----] AND [----]. And your logistics will continue through [----]. Better to dissolve now if you can"
X Link 2023-12-21T18:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@nealkhosla I think Carta is shooting themselves in the foot with their handling of this situation but youre describing a scenario so implausible its ridiculous (speaking as someone whos overseen more secondaries than I can count)"
X Link 2024-01-07T20:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Cartas Conundrum The current events aren't exactly a masterclass in PR ninja moves. But public statements aside. this conflict of interest was inevitable and has been brewing for years. If you dig deeper theres almost no other way for their strategy to have played out given the corner they are painted into and the moves available to them. I thought I'd share my biased (but hopefully well-informed views) on this. While Karris expectations are totally reasonable and everyone else is correct in pointing out the conflicts of interest Carta has to make some unreasonably aggressive moves to succeed"
X Link 2024-01-07T22:22Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"The startup cap table market (in the US) is actually majority Carta already. If you add up Pulley AngelList Carta LTSE and a couple other small players its probably = $500m. Thats really it for the market; its pretty saturated. If you add public company cap tables and transfer agents where carta has had a hard time breaking in Solium ComputerShare AST the US market is probably closer to $1-2B. This isnt really an expanding market its about market share for the most part"
X Link 2024-01-08T01:26Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"@levie I don't know anything about the new CEO but GE has some of the most bureaucratic leadership in the world. Even if he's great cannot possibly be an upgrade on Jeff"
X Link 2024-01-08T17:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@MartinGTobias Founder Preferred or plain old Preferred stock (with liquidation preference)"
X Link 2024-01-11T04:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Decoding the Black Box of Compensation Part II Introducing a tool to algorithmically estimate fair compensation for any title at any stage of company anywhere in the world. After thousands of regressions analyses and backtests weve determined that there are only [--] inputs (i.e. independent variables) in determining total rewards compensation for any employee: [--]. Entry level salary [--]. Title / Level [--]. Stage of Company (For those less familiar Total Rewards is an industry term for the sum of base salary incentive compensation and equity; sometimes it is used in a way that includes benefits but"
X Link 2024-01-14T17:35Z [----] followers, 50.3K engagements

"@sri_batchu @MLFiuk Hey Sri Sending an email would love to get your thoughts here. If I had to guess it it comes down to the input assumptions. the definition of "VP" or "Series B" is itself amorphous though I hope we can get better at morphing it closer to colloquial terminology over time"
X Link 2024-01-15T20:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Ive been short $GOOGL for a while now. See the post by an Alphabet / Google employee she describes the sort of decayed vision and culture that turns iconic companies into a shell of their former selves. Twitter was worse than the description of Google below before Elon took it over. Love him or hate him he does one thing really well every organization he leads he rids of apathy by infusing it with vision. Meta Microsoft JP Morgan Starbucks Coinbase have each had tough times but theyve gone through revivals by having a visionary leader (who is sometimes but not always a founder). While a"
X Link 2024-01-21T00:05Z [----] followers, 15.7K engagements

"I was just saying today that the Vision Pro is the most groundbreaking thing apple has launched since the iPhone. Im very excited to try it out hence the reason I hadnt written it off (and Im not short Apple despite it being a high multiple). But from all signs it doesnt appear Cook is leading the charge on new product development so Im very curious who is driving (with Jony Ive gone too). It would be pretty crazy if that sort of imagination and creativity is imbued in the organization"
X Link 2024-01-21T04:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Ive started to see companies consider something other than Google Workspace for new companies. That would have been a silly question to even consider a few years ago. And core Google search will be eviscerated in a few years with Perplexity GPT and other venues if they dont turn this around asap. Google will stick around for decades but their moat and growth can disappear quicker than we think (and thats all it takes for stock prices to start falling and thats a vicious cycle)"
X Link 2024-01-21T21:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@anuhariharan Gross profit & growth rate are the [--] unshakeable ingredients of a DCF. ( discount rate but thats outside your control.) Almost everything else is a plug in the model. Doesnt matter. I wrote a sort-of white paper on this premise a few years ago :)"
X Link 2024-01-26T20:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Early stage building and fundraising feels back finally. - Lots of high quality companies building terrific products. - AI feels less frothy in Q1 than it did last year. Early. but another good example that a (tech) recession creates a crucible for iconic companies to form"
X Link 2024-02-09T08:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@edsuh Lyfts story (not the numbers exactly) is pretty similar to #2 if I remember their rounds correctly"
X Link 2024-02-09T18:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Just in the last week [--] portfolio founders have offered intros to their friends who are raising because we are one of their most helpful investors. This is the most important leading indicator of IRR for IMHO"
X Link 2024-02-16T00:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@garrytan Agree with all my heart. Even the delta between strike price (= fair market value) and preferred price is all potential energy. It hasnt been realized yet. Well beyond that the number of times Ive heard were going to be worth $xM in [--] years from clueless founders"
X Link 2024-02-23T14:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Culture clashes between Salesforce and Slack leadership. Harder than expected to cross-sell Slack to SFDC customers. Then you have Twilio spinning out Segment Id rather see Slack thrive standalone. Will we see Salesforce to spin out Slack for $20B down from $28B soon"
X Link 2024-02-24T17:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Sent an ACH from the wrong account by mistake. Was about to ping @mercury support when I saw "Urgent Call 415-###-####." Called got a human in 30s verified account they pulled back the ACH. From problem to solution [--] minutes. This is how it's supposed to work"
X Link 2024-02-27T23:21Z [----] followers, 10.1K engagements

"Pro tip for companies going public: save yourself the investment banking fees. Just check out And then sanity check against secondary market trends on @CaplightData"
X Link 2024-03-01T23:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@schlaf I love this. I know I could have certainly used this when I exited a Series B startup as COO. For the founders who are winding down. might be worth partnering with @sunsethqdotcom"
X Link 2024-03-06T15:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The millionaire vs not point is clickbait noise. But the savviest people do not blindly pay off their loan early. Especially with a 5% loan. Not with todays interest rates. We got a 3.35% interest only and we dont intend on paying down a dime of principal. Every millionaire I know paid off their home early 🏡 Think about that. Every millionaire I know paid off their home early 🏡 Think about that"
X Link 2024-03-10T22:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I think this describes my entire politics as a "radical moderate". Here are a bunch of seemingly surprising ones I hold: - Ban income tax & estate tax; instead institute a wealth tax - Cut all social safety nets; replace with 1-2 simplified programs that are federally administered (perhaps even UBI) - Eliminate 50% of govt agencies; increase fed govt power nationalize healthcare - Free education through high school + Associate degree or trade school; eliminate college subsidies like student loan programs - Maintain / increase defense spending; maintain / increase effective tax rates - Free"
X Link 2024-03-15T03:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@bosdan @anothercohen Why stay away from level-funded health plans Most companies at scale end up either level-funded or self-insured"
X Link 2024-03-15T19:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@DeepSailCapital $FIGS $JAMF $KVYO"
X Link 2024-04-04T14:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@DanHightowerJr This is a fascinating analogy but I think it has to be done at the individual department level. This has quite a few parallels with what Salesforce already does. That's what makes them so hard to displace. They understand "platform" better than almost anyone else"
X Link 2024-05-04T19:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Lando Norris (and someone besides Verstappen) for the win"
X Link 2024-05-05T23:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The best deals in VC are obvious. 7-Fig revenue growing 30% MoM Ring-ding-ding. It'll be priced accordingly; no alpha in "picking" just in access. You should def invest in those OTOH I think the best part of investing is correctly picking the non-obvious deals"
X Link 2024-05-07T20:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@credistick @YakubuAgbese Yeah I think the big asterisk here is excluding the overcapitalized or overvalued startups among the obvious. The best founders are good at turning away silly-high terms even if their round is hot (I did not do this)"
X Link 2024-05-08T19:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"I have a post I've been planning about the secondary market. Would it be in good or poor taste to attempt to write it in @matt_levine's voice I'm a huge fan so it would be an homage; and the stylistic departure (from my usual writing style) would be a fun creative exercise"
X Link 2024-05-12T12:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Every year or so OpenAI makes me question whether I'll have any skills that will still be useful or marketable in [--] years. Say hello to GPT-4o our new flagship model which can reason across audio vision and text in real time: https://t.co/MYHZB79UqN Text and image input rolling out today in API and ChatGPT with voice and video in the coming weeks. https://t.co/uuthKZyzYx Say hello to GPT-4o our new flagship model which can reason across audio vision and text in real time: https://t.co/MYHZB79UqN Text and image input rolling out today in API and ChatGPT with voice and video in the coming"
X Link 2024-05-14T07:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@HarveyMultani Gross margin (and as a result balance sheet health) trending down alarmingly though"
X Link 2024-05-15T16:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@PhilippSchi @sundarpichai @demishassabis I. Don't think I would have instantly drawn the conclusion that the concrete was from the Berlin wall despite the context. Incredible. I'd have been curious whether it could guess how long the hourglass would run after seeing the flow rate for a few seconds"
X Link 2024-05-19T00:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@calcsam If everyone else I think OpenAI is closest. You really have to be an N of [--] company to pull it off. Most of SaaS is far too crowded where it's not clear that a company is breaking away from the pack well enough to 10x if they just keep doing what they're doing"
X Link 2024-05-24T01:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@MetaThought100 @langamebr This . Starlink alone doesn't justify the prospect for a 10x. It's a part of the growth story but you kind of have to believe there's a lot more to it -- energy asteroid mining interplanetary transportation etc"
X Link 2024-05-24T03:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Please help me settle a bet. Is it a cookie skillet or a skillet cookie"
X Link 2024-05-26T02:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"If a) growth is not "bought" and stemming from genuine customer value b) valuation isn't overextended in a way that will deplete the balance sheet and c) unit economics / gross margin are solid and sustainable. . Then no it won't be a source of value destruction. But if you let those trap you (which is all too tempting) then certainly"
X Link 2024-05-26T20:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"They've prob deployed $500m (let's say $1b including Continuity). Total market cap is $600B. 7% investment = $42b and dilution is prob 2/3 so I'd guess $12-18b in NAV. Something like 15x MOIC or 25-30% weighted average IRR. A really terrific example of power law at work btw. About [--] out of [----] companies (airbnb coinbase stripe doordash) account for $250b or over 40% of total market cap generated. The next [--] (deel rippling gitlab instacart reddit dropbox if I'm getting all of them right) add another $60b = 10%. Even if you stopped counting at companies funded in [----] 0.5% of the companies"
X Link 2024-05-28T04:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@gojomo @benhylak @paulg @nftsasha It would be considered a very good investment -- but whether it's a significant one is relative :)"
X Link 2024-05-30T20:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@terronk The majority of Trump supporters I've met believe he has committed no crimes whatsoever and in fact believe he can do no wrong"
X Link 2024-05-30T23:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@EthosVentures @shaunmmaguire I just don't understand how we couldn't find literally anyone else besides these two. Cuban Dimon Buttigieg Romney Bloomberg Hell I'd take Haley Christie or most any primary candidate (except Ramaswamy) Just give me a candidate [--] who's not a psycho. Too much to ask"
X Link 2024-05-31T05:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Ending on a fun one a Wealth Tax Replace all taxes (income sales property estate) with a single wealth tax. The principles the US was founded on included disbanding oligarchies which generally has to do with wealth not income. It doesnt make any sense that a person who has a $5000 net worth but makes $100000 / year is taxed the same that as someone who has a $5000000 net worth and also makes $100000 / year. If we instituted a progressive system e.g. $100K net worth 0% $100K - $1M net worth taxed at 1% $1M - $10M net worth taxed at 2% $10M - $100M net worth taxed at 3% $100M - $1B net worth"
X Link 2024-06-02T14:22Z [----] followers, 21.5K engagements

"@ericbahn Honestly I do wonder when we all got so third-rail about politics-at-large. Not just individual hot button issues but even just bringing up "politics" makes people go mum. Used to be that we could have spirited discussions with friends regardless of where we stood politically"
X Link 2024-06-04T04:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Couldn't disagree more. I'm not talking about just VCs but the "innovation ecosystem" at large. There's been positive disruption from VC-backed companies on housing (Redfin) transport (Tesla) Healthcare (Moderna) to name a few. Every form of political disruption PACs have enabled (special interest pork barrel influencing elections) has been pure poison. Citizens United has been the most dangerous thing for US exceptionalism in recent memory. Churches are fine but innately biased. Schools have been the antithesis of positive disruption. Education is probably the worst-performing part of our"
X Link 2024-06-04T22:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@maharsipatel @lessin Ouch 😂"
X Link 2024-06-06T00:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@AlexMil92241944 @lessin There are hundreds of incredibly well funded foundational and application layer AI companies in the early and mid stages. The ROI is quickly starting to emerge in enterprise use cases"
X Link 2024-06-06T00:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@knd775 @lessin They're wildly overstretched on fundamentals and the price is artificially propped up by a single dominant stockholder (softbank). If they start selling no way the market supports their current valuation"
X Link 2024-06-06T01:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@mo_battah @AlexMil92241944 @lessin GPUs have a much shorter depreciation window. Your concerns are reasonable but I think comparing to meta is apples and oranges because is plausible that OpenAI Anthropic are "smaller" but could be spending on the same order of magnitude in a couple of years"
X Link 2024-06-06T01:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@pitdesi Well there's plenty controversy in the modi govt essentially bullying and jailing opposition party members to toe the party line. This admin has been objectively good for progress but it's definitely not "clean." It might just be the benevolent dictatorship India needed though"
X Link 2024-06-06T18:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@peer_rich The rare earth metal mining limited life and non-recyclability means that solar is far from a "clean" energy source. Nuclear is by far the most right answer to the energy question"
X Link 2024-06-07T19:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Unsurprising given the a) market cycle changes from a low interest to high interest rate environment and b) growth slowing. Carta ended [----] with $185M (see below $272 / 1.47x). So presumably they were at $135M when they raised in mid-2021 from Silver Lake (I don't know what growth was at the time but is but presumably around 70-100% since they slowed to 47% a year later so I picked 80%). I used an 80% gross margin since it was mostly software with some 409a. Based on that (a DCF-lite calculator I built) estimates they were worth just under $7B which is what their premoney was. Now at $370M"
X Link 2024-06-08T00:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Unsurprising given the a) market cycle changes from a low interest to high interest rate environment and b) growth slowing. Carta ended [----] with $185M (see below $272 / 1.47x). So presumably they were at $135M when they raised in mid-2021 from Silver Lake (I don't know what growth was at the time but is but presumably around 70-100% since they slowed to 47% a year later so I picked 80%). I used an 80% gross margin since it was mostly software with some 409a. Based on that (a DCF-lite calculator I built) estimates they were worth just under $7B which is what their premoney was. Now at $370M"
X Link 2024-06-08T00:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@ericbahn Hypnosis is a new tack for cold callers lol"
X Link 2024-06-12T21:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"No one: Literally no one: Marketwatch: "Is a company burning $200m of cash / year with a dying business model just totally like the greatest public investment company of all time""
X Link 2024-06-13T20:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Totally agree. If it helps I've turned more or less these principles (how critical growth rate is in determining multiples) baked in the role of GM% (all revenue is not equal) into a calculator that arrives at a very similar valuation and conclusion. Databricks AAPL NVDA CRWD in a league of their own. http://hariraghavan.com/pcg http://hariraghavan.com/pcg"
X Link 2024-06-14T02:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@nrmehta Regulatory capture; most things in society that are inflationary (education healthcare housing) are already a function of policy rather than market forces. As actual human contribution goes down the need for semi-UBI jobs (govt funded or subsidized) will increase"
X Link 2024-06-15T17:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Made material updates (my first ever code commits) to PCG a shorthand DCF to quickly value companies. Works for Series A to public high growth or not profitable or not in any industry (seriously try it out). Just need revenue gm% growth%. Check it out 👇"
X Link 2024-06-15T18:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"http://hariraghavan.com/pcg http://hariraghavan.com/pcg"
X Link 2024-06-15T18:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@sull1vannolan @quantian1 Pretty good diss haha. . but I think managing people well creating well run organizations enabling more data driven rather than gut decisions and making work fulfilling is incredibly impactful"
X Link 2024-06-16T18:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@semil @jaminball Correlation not causation. These are all some of the stickiest businesses around. Almost all 120-130% net dollar retention"
X Link 2024-06-22T04:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@semil @jaminball PS gets all of them spot on except hubspot (today's price is a bit expensive) and palantir (quite expensive unless we think they have a 5-10 year moat) http://hariraghavan.com/pcg http://hariraghavan.com/pcg"
X Link 2024-06-22T04:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@mijustin Framer hands down the best option on the market today"
X Link 2024-06-22T04:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Both are true depending on context IMO which I think is kind of what you're saying. [--]. Hard (not impossible) to go public sub $2-3b valuation due to fixed covers of ipo 2a. If growth has stalled then revenue needs to be approaching $300-500m in revenue / $250-350m in GP to swing that 2b. If growing at a healthy clip and/or a very sticky business then it's possible at $100-200m in ARR Formula for this is simple. In today's market [--] * (1 + growth%)2 * Gross Profit Gross profit Revenue and growth rate has an exponential impact (I always shun revenue multiples for this reason). In a lower"
X Link 2024-06-22T18:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@MattHelmer5 @poojaasanwal I do spend 60+ mins a day with my wife virtually everyday. We do it over food and unwinding over TV (she has an intense job too and fortunately we both feel watching something together is quality time). With a kid I'd cut out one of the hobbies or - honestly - my time on X"
X Link 2024-06-24T14:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"I'm a 3-issue voter: - constitutionally reverse Citizens United - age limits for Presidential candidates and age + term limits for Congress - ban daylight savings Anyone running on this platform"
X Link 2024-06-28T02:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Theoretically "no one gets fired for buying IBM". But if you're paying IBM $$$$ for AI advice you should probably be fired. I'm skeptical there are enough humans on the planet who know how to implement AI well enough to justify a fraction of these amounts. I'm doubly skeptical that there are armies of them at IBM or KPMG. Someone is gonna get hammered. https://t.co/nUcj2Wx63P I'm skeptical there are enough humans on the planet who know how to implement AI well enough to justify a fraction of these amounts. I'm doubly skeptical that there are armies of them at IBM or KPMG. Someone is gonna get"
X Link 2024-07-03T02:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@blader @ericbahn This is a conspiracy to get me back to the bay more often And I'm totally falling for it"
X Link 2024-07-03T04:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@natfriedman Superhuman tabs for mail. Notion calendar (fka Cron) for consolidated calendar view. Arc profiles for browser (useful for default account used for OAuth etc but also in a pinch for calendar drive etc.)"
X Link 2024-07-07T20:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Words of wisdom. Long hours = success Responding quickly = success Capital = success Talent = success Just keep your eyes on the prize (solve a customer problem + make sure they know it). Hours emails money talent help. But those are just levers. The thing is the thing. First-time founders: push back date night to work on their startup Second-time founders: prioritize ruthlessly so they dont miss date night I made up for a lack of focus as a first-time founder with sheer hours. I worked every waking hour basically. Now. (🧵) First-time founders: push back date night to work on their startup"
X Link 2024-07-08T15:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@ZacharyDeWitt I have a whole thesis around this. Not VC but follows a parallel track of "nano PE." Company has to intend dividends or operate in a PE category. To raise a "seed" on this track you have to have series A/B metrics. To raise an "A" you have to have B/C metrics and so on"
X Link 2024-07-10T04:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The function to open the link and gather the info seems like a great stepping stone to the ultimate accounts payable experience: Forward an invoice / AP email (whether it has pdf or just a stripe payment link) with desired payment method. "Pay with ach using attached invoice" "Pay with link using my hubspot card" "Pay this via wire with net [--] terms" Goes into an "invoice inbox" with the inferred action based on emailed instructions. If it's a card payment then the card is displayed for confirmation along with remaining limit / balance. Controller just clicks to bulk approve. We built a"
X Link 2024-07-10T22:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@anothercohen I think its a fun thought exercise to discuss the fuzzy line between human & AI labor. But the framing here is not great. Also is responsible hiring of digital workers" / "responsible employment of AI just hedging for Rokos Basilisk at this point"
X Link 2024-07-11T19:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@abarrallen The market is at all time highs but typical IPO candidates (high growth unprofitable companies) are struggling down 40-90% off the peak. Asana Nextdoor Amplitude Dave Confluent Fastly Gitlab Toast Udemy. All IPOs in the last few years and all down. As a proxy"
X Link 2024-07-11T20:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"This comparison isn't apples to apples on a few dimensions: - this [--] is specifically software and excludes fintech consumer hardware etc. - obv $5b vs $1b as mentioned - this is US-listed only If you compare apples to apples it's either [----] global unicorns vs. [----] global public companies $1b (not 72) Or 30-40 US software $5b+ private companies vs [--] US $5b+ public compankes (To be clear I obviously agree that about half of those 30-40 aren't worth their last private round.)"
X Link 2024-07-14T02:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Something I just realized: your company's business software sets its culture. Why The purpose of software is to alter your speed. Great software lets you move 10x faster. It changes your culture & execution. Just look at Slack vs Teams. The same team on Slack is way faster"
X Link 2024-07-18T18:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Jeff_Baumgarten @natiakourdadze If someone random cc'es my investors on an email I'm instantly - reporting as spam on google - calling it out on social media - never buying their product"
X Link 2024-07-18T23:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@pbreit I think google docs and office each have their pros and cons. No obvious 10x betterness there. Mac way better on things like security but I don't think Windows is the crap it used to be during the Vista days"
X Link 2024-07-19T12:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"This is the way. I think VC "growth" rounds can work after you've derisked the model. Eg - raise an angel round - skip the seed and A - get to $20m ARR (say) with a clear track record (doubling YoY with 50% margins). which would normally be considered a series C perhaps but raise a Bish round instead (eg $15-20m at $100-150m) Still a premium multiple vs 2-5x revenue acquisitions but much more in touch with reality. Another simplistic modification is to simply discount a round. Eg do a Seed round with series A metrics an A round with series B metrics etc B with series C metrics. which is"
X Link 2024-07-19T23:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Austen Every time I say 95% of every profession is incompetent people get really riled up"
X Link 2024-07-20T00:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@linakhanFTC Cool if you're worried about concentration please go build another CrowdStrike. Except. The reason is because it's insanely hard to build software so good that they got a billion installs within a decade. How exactly would you magically spawn viable competitors"
X Link 2024-07-20T01:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@emilyinvc No insider info on Harvey (and only good wishes). But I don't know how one can get adoption in the legal tech space fast enough to earn that valuation that quickly. The way you win in legal tech is like DocuSign / Ironclad long slow war of attrition"
X Link 2024-07-21T01:27Z [----] followers, 16.8K engagements

"@emilyinvc @mercury @runwayco @linear"
X Link 2024-07-21T23:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@VladTheInflator An easy rule of thumb is that each 1% rise in interest rates equates in a 10% lower property price"
X Link 2024-07-25T13:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@eladgil This appears to be a variation on the Microsoft / Inflection not-an-acquisition playbook. Fascinating to see this be a clear trend now. Obviously attributable to the toxic M&A environment under Lina Khan's FTC"
X Link 2024-08-02T19:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@adamkovac This is what he means by "spent time in the US startup world". What an utter fucking joke"
X Link 2024-08-05T15:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Any given Sunday Watchmen Snatch In bruges Kiss kiss bang bang Devil wears prada City of God Memento [---] days of summer A beautiful mind V for vendetta Layer cake Lucky number slevin Kung Fu hustle is on my list too Death at a funeral Stranger than fiction Ray Milk Thank you for smoking I am legend Little miss sunshine Serenity Vanilla sky District [--] Green street hooligans Frost/Nixon"
X Link 2024-08-05T21:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@LittleKeegs0 @nbashaw Why Why would Buttigieg be less legitimate Why shouldn't he and Whitmer and Shapiro have been allowed to raise from donors hold rallies and then put their best foot forward at the convention"
X Link 2024-08-09T13:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Of all the use cases in the world for web3 (still struggling to find ones beyond digital gold trustless smart contracts and crime). . the fact that open source projects were never tokenized or DAO'ed to build financial alignment with their community boggles my mind"
X Link 2024-08-09T21:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Been following consensus for years. These guys execute. Epic team working on an important problem. If you like science go check them out. Excited to back them We are thrilled to announce that we've raised an $11.5M Series A led by @usv alongside @natfriedman & @danielgross @carterkev and @drapervc Scientific research is the most valuable source of knowledge humans have ever created. Yet - there is no easy way to search and consume https://t.co/uHy9qyxuzP We are thrilled to announce that we've raised an $11.5M Series A led by @usv alongside @natfriedman & @danielgross @carterkev and"
X Link 2024-08-14T22:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@halleka_ @mercury @JonHearty any tips"
X Link 2024-08-20T00:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@pitdesi I invested in a Series B SPV. It briefly "appreciated" 20x before they told employees to take massive exercise loans. Then promptly cratering. I always root for founders but not grifters. Especially ones that screw over employees. Glad to write it off sooner. Thanks Ryan"
X Link 2024-08-21T05:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"A tax on unrealized gains will have utterly disastrous consequences. It's absolutely the wrong solution; but the underlying problem is valid: enormously wealthly people paying low taxes on cap gains. A couple months ago I wrote the following wacky proposal: an in-kind wealth tax - a progressive tax rate (1-4%) on assets - paid in kind (ie each year you own slightly less of each asset -- cash stock real estate) - no additional capital gains upon liquidation; the accrued wealth tax would just be delivered to the IRS upon sale - makes it possible to eliminate income property and sales tax -"
X Link 2024-08-21T19:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@levie Curious what you think of this: an in-kind wealth tax that accrues over time and is only due upon sale (instead of capital gains). Totally wacky and prob can never happen but as far as magic wand solutions go I've felt it's worth talking about. A tax on unrealized gains will have utterly disastrous consequences. It's absolutely the wrong solution; but the underlying problem is valid: enormously wealthly people paying low taxes on cap gains. A couple months ago I wrote the following wacky proposal: an in-kind wealth A tax on unrealized gains will have utterly disastrous consequences."
X Link 2024-08-21T19:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Capital losses cannot be requested as a refund they carry over or apply to $3000 of income tax. To play out how ridiculous this is I'll describe how a startup founder / employee could face a MORE THAN 100% tax rate and have to go into debt. Because it's funny let's assume it's @TheRoaringKitty. Say he: - buys $10M of GME in Jan - GME rises 10x to create paper wealth of $110M as of Dec - he owes $25M as a result for the tax year - he tries to sell the stock in April for taxes - GME has dropped 80% in that time and his position is now worth $22M - he sells his entire position just to cover"
X Link 2024-08-24T02:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Two other things: [--]. Startup stock unlike $GME isn't liquid enough to cover any of the tax obligation so the founder / early employee / angel investor would have to go the WHOLE $25M in debt. They can't sell any to cover the liability. [--]. In case you're thinking "the government would never let this happen to poor old startups this is targeting billionaires" this is LITERALLY what already happens with AMT due upon option exercise. Another policy alternative minimum tax intended to tax the very wealthy causes thousands of startup employees to go into debt to buy their options. based on paper"
X Link 2024-08-24T02:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Why are there so many b2b back office saas companies named after simple machines @tryramp @pulley @levercoS12 More importantly where are Wedge Screw and Wheel-and-axle"
X Link 2024-08-27T16:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Austen Yeah I got a very convincing one that looks a lot like adobe signature confirmation. Weird part I actually use Adobe sign not DocuSign. I don't know if that was a lucky coincidence for them or if there's something sketchier at play. Spotted it and didn't click though"
X Link 2024-08-29T04:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Gladiator was a top [--] movie for me in my 20s along with Shawshank and it's a wonderful life. Now I don't really have a top [--] or top [--] per se 😅 but it's still up there. Others I've added more recently include - Arrival - Amadeus - In Bruges - Kiss Kiss Bang Bang - [--] Angry Men - Wall-E - Usual Suspects - Parasite - Edge of Tomorrow - As Good As It Gets - Max Max - Birdman - Devil Wears Prada - Looper - Crazy Stupid Love - City of God - Memento"
X Link 2024-08-31T20:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@bchesky @garrytan I don't think it's an accident that every one of these folks had a strong aesthetic sense and one that was uniquely theirs. I wonder if very good taste is a necessary (or at least very helpful) precursor to properly attempt founder mode"
X Link 2024-09-04T06:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@tryramp I mean if it's time to build Home Depot is a great place to start"
X Link 2024-09-07T00:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@levelsio Disintermediation is. Fine. I don't think there's a moral authority to honor a transactional relationship with Uber. But no free lunch. There's a benefit they provide over a craigslist add where you find a tasker (which is sort of what you did here). That's what you paid for"
X Link 2024-09-07T20:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@jeff82874662 These are classic signs of lots of nervous energy. I look exactly like this sometimes: - an extrovert - in the spotlight doing a podcast - discussing a topic I'm passionate about - if I had a couple of coffees that day - add in a bit of ADHD & OCD (I've never done hard drugs.)"
X Link 2024-09-08T19:33Z [----] followers, 36.1K engagements

"@Porkbarrel_15 IMO they should be refounded and restaffed. Some of them will probably have 1/10 or 1/100 of their prior staff. Others will probably need to be raised back up to 50-80% of their prior level. This is similar to a tough but impactful approach at companies (zero-based budgeting)"
X Link 2024-09-09T06:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@ShaanVP Linear Mercury Ramp Cerebras Perplexity Glean"
X Link 2024-09-10T20:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"So much so that I drafted a tagline inspired by Ramps for @AutographHR. I can never get over how good @tryramp's slogan is https://t.co/hahGvWLSr6 I can never get over how good @tryramp's slogan is https://t.co/hahGvWLSr6"
X Link 2024-09-10T21:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@scottdwitt Yes except for "optimism." I might classify it as a relentless belief / vision rather necessarily optimism. This is semantics but to me it's - vision = something should be - optimism = something will be"
X Link 2024-09-10T23:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@cahouser Real-time AI redaction :)"
X Link 2024-09-11T12:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@sulemanali Based purely on current fundamentals (not future prospects) fair valuation on $135M gross profit with declining revenue is $600M IMO. Mkt cap is $180M but EV is $330M due to debt. It's "undervalued" by 45% - market thinks they're not very sticky which is believable"
X Link 2024-09-14T01:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@LynAldenContact Costco faces absolutely no real competition for the next decade and has a corporate culture and strategy that will sustain basically forever. Nvidia is dominant today but the market is so lucrative that several real competitors are emerging that will play out in 2-5 years"
X Link 2024-09-15T15:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Midwest_RIA @kylascan @Jack_Raines I feel bad for your worldview if you actually believe this. # of generational companies built in last [--] yrs: Musk = 5+ Eberhard = [--] I don't know what happened behind the scenes at Tesla early on but literally no reasonable person could say Eberhard was the "real" visionary"
X Link 2024-09-17T17:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@viveksworld @signulll Yeah this is the main reason I invested in Keeper. Their biggest revenue payout is a bounty upon their customers getting married. Fundamentally they are mission oriented and aligned in a way that the "dating" apps are not"
X Link 2024-09-20T14:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@nikillinit Yes but I think consultants are good at telling people how to solve problems and bad at asking people how they want it solved. Enterprise sales is SO much about just discovery"
X Link 2024-09-24T16:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@AzBobbyl @levie Yeah his policies are weakly correlated with GOP policies. I think the "populist" base identifies with Trump policies. The "elite" base (e.g. VCs that support him) identify with mostly GOP policies. but really they just (justifiably) hate democrat policies"
X Link 2024-09-27T16:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@neoviky @bindureddy why so because of coverage around the clock"
X Link 2024-10-02T03:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@antoniogm I mean limit it to LinkedIn & professional data (eg work email only). 100x lower creep factor all the benefit"
X Link 2024-10-05T03:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The perfect dessert doesn't exi"
X Link 2024-10-07T01:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I know how to clean things 🤦♂ You cant dry it out because the openings arent big enough so any cleaning solutiom creates condensation and hence discolored residue. The whole thing looks grimy and dirty after a few months. Plus its super fragile and you're afraid every time you touch it that the more delicate elements may break"
X Link 2024-10-22T20:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@ArmandDoma I don't think you understand how leverage and power work. She needs him more than he needs her. He's being respectful but maintaining a level playing field. It's far more than most union leaders or mega-donors would do with a sitting Vice President"
X Link 2024-10-29T13:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@ChrisJBakke Why is Washington Post in quotes"
X Link 2024-10-29T19:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"We need community notes for X users. If everyone says you're sort of vile / moronic / etc you should get a badge of shame. If everyone agrees you're amazing / kind / funny / etc you should get a badge of honor"
X Link 2024-10-31T18:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@loobah_l Hahaha my dentist also told me this for the first time literally [--] weeks ago"
X Link 2024-11-02T01:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@credistick @lulumeservey How about just within the last week Check out her Lyft ruling"
X Link 2024-11-06T17:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@credistick @lulumeservey By this logic every retail store sale should be banned because they said "up to 50% off.""
X Link 2024-11-06T18:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"$FRGE is growing steadily (albeit slowly) with an increasing share of revenue coming from recurring sources and a path to profitability in 12-18 mos. Trading at 1.1x gross profit; market average is 4-6x gross profit for comparable cos Im a buyer (not financial advice)"
X Link 2024-11-08T17:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Austen Word of mouth from founder / operator groups (whatsapp slack) plus fundraising & revenue signals"
X Link 2024-11-14T17:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"We run books for @AutographHR on Puzzle. Took a few hours to do our books for an entire year (by myself because it's still very simple for us. but can't wait to have our bookkeeper do it in Puzzle starting next year). Such a delightful product. Proud to be a tiny investor. So happy to see amazing new software. so that companies can rip out every piece of crap that Intuit & Bill ship. When I started my first company back in [----] I realized something big: Accountants are the heartbeat of every businesstheyre the ones keeping everything honest behind the scenes. But I also noticed theyre often"
X Link 2024-11-14T20:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@bcookins @Jack_Raines Amazon exercises enormous power over merchants via their fulfillment network. And acts in monopolistic ways with AWS partners (copies features and pushes their own version). Meta only because of near monopoly over social. I don't think they act in an anticompetitive way tho"
X Link 2024-11-20T18:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@EvanBuhler @pjux Depends on the firm (there are a lot of tourist early stage managers) but agreed on the relationship front at least and agreed that early stage is different (see below). Advice is a dime a dozen (but maybe thats just me speaking after [--] years of doing this). @nimanojoumi @pjux I dont actually think we disagree. Your point is true at pre-seed and at those stages its way more relationship based. I agree that pre-PMF the founder is all youre betting on. But 90%+ of VC dollars now are deployed post PMF. At that point it makes sense for VC to become @nimanojoumi @pjux I dont"
X Link 2024-11-25T13:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@Rick_Zullo @credistick @EqualVentures Gross profit multiples Agreed on revenue but P/E is deeply flawed too. EV/FCF is far too lagging. Ive found P/GP (adjusting for growth) to be far more predictive. http://hariraghavan.com/pcg http://hariraghavan.com/pcg"
X Link 2024-11-26T14:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@awwstn @Rippling Yo dawg I heard you don't like emails so I sent you another email"
X Link 2024-11-27T03:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Generally really like it. There are always trade offs but I find that the weather location breadth / diversity of people and interests travel destinations safety make it a really good spot Cons / things you have to get used to: bad traffic / drivers lower professionalism on average abundance of pests / creatures frequent language barrier (you have to know Spanish)"
X Link 2024-12-03T18:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The interview process is the one of the few places where there's no such thing as coming on too strong. Early-stage companies want people who want to be there. Hedging or playing hard to get especially if you are seriously considering much later stage (or worse FAANG) companies can actually be a cause for concern"
X Link 2024-12-04T01:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@jasonlk I think a lot of those aer a bit overvalued today. But lots of great opportunity in devtools still IMHO ($S $BRZE $PD $OKTA $FSLY)"
X Link 2024-12-05T14:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Still cant wrap my head around Edward Norton founding a startup to automate board decks. [----] was a wild time man"
X Link 2024-12-13T06:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@devahaz There is a lot of overlap here (specifically Coinbase custodies many of the ETFs holdings)"
X Link 2024-12-13T23:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Couple of caveats [--]. In the S-1 their most recent quarter was at $1.6B annualized which is quite different from where they ended the year; the right watermark for the IPO is Q1 [--] [--]. We have to normalize for growth. A google-esque business growing 2.2x today at $1.6b revenue / $1.4b gross profit would have an EV of $37b. OpenAI probably has lower gm% but is growing at 12x. Thats so insane it sort of breaks any DCF but it is probably fairly valued in the $150-200b range. But Google was fair at 20x revenue based on 120% growth"
X Link 2024-12-18T16:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Well sure we can use $3b for Google but then we have to use the feb [----] valuation (when they filed the 10-k for 2004) which puts them at $54b not the ipo price at $32b. Oddly their gm% on that was only 55% (must have changed reporting from the s-1 method). A $3.2b business growing 2.2x with 55% gm that has a solid moat feels right at $55-60b. So again it was fair back then. I agree defensibility (tied to equity efficiency) matters but I think thats offset by perceived TAM and maturity of the software industry (which most would say is more apparently larger and more addressable for OAI than"
X Link 2024-12-18T20:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@DanHightowerJr @thejmkane I think we can all agree on this haha. Definitely lots of money grabs in the space taking advantage of unsuspecting founders"
X Link 2024-12-20T20:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@lennysan @crunchbase About half this list run $100m+ (Elad $1b+ not to mention Thiel) so this is a confusing sample. Also [---] investments is not that prolific in [--] years Loads of quality angels have written more (Immad Austen maybe you ;)). Hell I've written about 120+ since 2019"
X Link 2024-12-24T21:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@JonHearty @lennysan @crunchbase Yep though that's over his whole career. I'd have guessed 200ish over the last [--] years"
X Link 2024-12-25T13:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Vociferously anti-trump then the biggest trump syncophant (not even just "pro trump" in his view trump can do no wrong). Pro startups and innovation but opposed the FDIC backstopping SVB depositors (a truly dangerous position that weekend when our entire mid-size banking segment was teetering) -- he said that only to distance himself from his tech roots and identify with middle america. Bunch of others on here https://www.politifact.com/article/2023/sep/26/what-are-vivek-ramaswamys-stances-on-trump-hunter/"
X Link 2024-12-26T22:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"If you think this is bad as a consumer wait until you have to use Okta (or worse Microsoft Entra):"
X Link 2024-12-27T19:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@thomassfoley @pitdesi I think Forge and others are the most sustainable versions of this model (the tl;dr of this post is that leverage from tech goes much farther the higher the rate / hr that youre automating and bankers are very high $ / hr as opposed to say bookkeeping)"
X Link 2024-12-27T22:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"I'm a immigrant (natural) citizen. My wife @mitaligala is an immigrant (naturalized) citizen (H-1B green card). We're pro-America libertarian utilitarian. I think the US is best-served by expanding (only) highly skilled talent via O-1 and seriously cutting back H1-B (because it is frequently gamed by companies to import unremarkable talent). This raises our talent ceiling as a country without hurting the middle class and the native citizen population (which we should prioritize). (Note: please read the whole post without any prior assumptions about me; I've also added context on my politics"
X Link 2024-12-28T17:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Literally none of this matters if we don't reform (ie curb) entitlement programs. Just social security + medicare/medicaid + defense + interest is nearly $6T in spend. All the other non-defense discretionary spend put together is $1T (ie total is $7T). If you cut non-defense discretionary spend to the bone (eg by 50%) it would still result in a $1.5T defict. There's a lot of waste in defense spending too so let's say we make that a lot more efficient and cut it by 50% as well. Still a $1T deficit. Unless we cut social security / medicare & medicaid @DOGE can't say that it did its job. Which"
X Link 2024-12-29T14:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@thomasschulzz This is a problematic list. because: a. it's mostly correct (which is worse than being totally wrong; makes it credible despite being 60-70% correct) b. muddling seed stage series A multi-stage funds (and YC which is none of the above) makes it inscrutable to most founders"
X Link 2024-12-29T17:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Theres research indicating that a basket [--] stocks is actually sufficient for diversification (adding more to the basket produces diminishing returns). I do think it results in a high concentration of tech but given the way the worlds going is that even a bad idea The average retail investor is probably getting better risk-adjusted exposure to AI via Nvidia Meta Alphabet Microsoft and Tesla than a top quartile Series A right now tbh"
X Link 2024-12-29T22:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@JanuzitoJuanzin @shawnwlim This is irrelevant to the discussion. This isnt saying believe any less to the US. What is strong can always be stronger"
X Link 2024-12-29T23:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@JanuzitoJuanzin @shawnwlim Thats shouting into the wind. The world is globalizing and no country can change that. Its also moot; because the US has firmly chosen its fork in the road. We are by definition and heritage a country of immigrants. Your point may be relevant if youre talking about Sweden"
X Link 2024-12-29T23:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Fair counter I've signed non-disparagements before :). But obviously that's editable in the statement (instead of "dirty laundry" "this is not the appropriate forum."). However I don't agree with the blanket statement that it's not our place to draw conclusions at all though: [--]. This is such a reputation and trust based industry and that's no surprise to anyone. If you fired a founder and then the company cratered you'd better have a crisis plan (whether or not you thought the founder would say something). [--]. There are surrounding facts from employees and their treatment of customers that"
X Link 2024-12-30T04:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@braminc Not even a bit. He plays it fast and loose with facts"
X Link 2025-01-05T05:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@MAHunter867 Good god no"
X Link 2025-01-05T05:34Z [----] followers, 14.9K engagements

"@senseiusaa @Pask218337 How about neither and I merely have a different view on this Huberman needs to be held to a higher standard than the rest because he purports to be a scientist. But he's actually a pseudoscientist who cherry picks convenient data for his narrative and speaks in black & white. I've been a Huberman detractor in the past so I've been asked what I think about the article. (J/k -- zero people have asked what I think.) Huberman's moral and professional shortcomings are both rooted in the same problem: a loose relationship with facts. How can you trust a I've been a Huberman"
X Link 2025-01-06T02:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@tollydata What do you mean he was early to Airbnb Whole Foods Being a board member means hes well known (and perhaps well liked) its not necessarily a claim to competence. Respect for selling a $100m+ business though"
X Link 2025-01-06T17:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@nikkeh_jay @Nutri3ntD3ns3 @ImmersedGolf Im glad hes helped you but its reasonable for one to think that he is not particularly good at being a scientist. We may not agree and thats okay. To your question: yes I try very hard to be helpful to people. I dont think you should presume to know anything about me"
X Link 2025-01-06T19:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

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