@fejau_inc fejau
There is a discussion about the future of Bitcoin, specifically the potential impact of decreasing mining rewards and the role of transaction fees in securing the network. Some users are also debating the significance of the four-year cycle in Bitcoin and whether it still applies. Meanwhile, market participants are closely watching the Federal Reserve's actions, including the potential end of quantitative tightening (QT) and its implications for funding markets and the broader economy.
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Social Influence
Social category influence finance 25.23% technology brands 9.35% stocks 3.74% cryptocurrencies 3.74% countries 1.87% social networks 1.87%
Social topic influence ai #2207, crypto #277, balance sheet 5.61%, growth 4.67%, the first 3.74%, money 3.74%, market #5019, meta 2.8%, check 2.8%, gdp growth 2.8%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @forwardguidance @qthomp @tylerneville @andreassteno @fejauinc @aburnhard95 @dannydayan5 @marketspuke @bangitbot @vincentdeluard @peetapeexpert @bickerinbrattle @benkizemchuk @chainlank @tyler_neville_ @aahanprometheus @dampedspring @grok @cryptoparadyme @thepumponomics
Top assets mentioned Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Bitcoin (BTC) Spotify Technology (SPOT) Cango Inc. American Depositary Shares (CANG)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"So AI is creating incredible tools that are 10xing productivity every week and the best crypto can do right now is celebrate when a meme coin that mirrors a new AI product has no direct benefit or association with that product so people can freely speculate on it Quite the industry we have rn I am optimistic that things improve but man its embarrassing rn Crypto is getting deservedly lapped by AI right now This Clawdbot coin is a pivotal moment for our coins. The guy behind it all came out and said he wants nothing to do with the coin and will never support it. Price went up anyways due to"
X Link 2026-01-25T18:51Z 82.7K followers, 109.4K engagements
"New episode out with @VincentDeluard who is one of my favorite macro thinkers these days. He has an exceptional understanding of whats happening these days NEW POD: How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally We Cover: 🔸 [----] nominal growth boom 🔸 Second wave of inflation 🔸 The pessimism bubble 🔸 Warsh PMs investing out of U.S. & more @VincentDeluard @fejau_inc Links Below Apple 🎙: https://t.co/QKiOpJZ4y1 Spotify 🎙: https://t.co/PbPy3Xwo7A NEW POD: How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally We Cover: 🔸 [----] nominal growth boom 🔸 Second wave of inflation 🔸 The pessimism bubble 🔸 Warsh PMs investing out"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:51Z 82.7K followers, 12.3K engagements
"@chainlank Im confused where I inferred any of that Im just really excited here thats all"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:42Z 82.7K followers, [----] engagements
"This is all reminding me a lot of the end of the previous NFT cycle. Initially meme coins were a fun idea and there was only a handful of them so liquidity could funnel into these and pump them hard (doge and shib were the OGs and still nothing has surpassed them including the president coin) Then came the first wave of marginal increase in new coins - Pepe bonk wif etc. liquidity was focused enough that these could still get pumped hard. Then pump fun was created I view this similar to when Blur was launched and it unlocked hyper capital efficiency and removed the friction to creating new"
X Link 2025-01-25T20:49Z 82.7K followers, 534K engagements
"Four year cycle doesnt exist. [----] cycle died when Powell hiked rates QT tantrum blowup December [----] [----] cycle died when Fed went on most aggressive hiking cycle ever [----] were cutting rates and easing meaningfully It was always macro and [--] year cycle idea was spurious Thank you for your attention to this matter Rate cut in [--] days. Then again in [--] days. Then again in [--] days. Then we have a new Fed Chair in May who will make Bernanke look like Paul Volker. Enjoy missing out on the next bull market cycle theorists. Rate cut in [--] days. Then again in [--] days. Then again in [--] days. Then we"
X Link 2025-10-23T22:22Z 82.7K followers, 359.2K engagements
"well at least Saylor was able to get one last kick at the top blasting can"
X Link 2025-11-17T20:19Z 82.7K followers, 22.7K engagements
"It appears Digital Asset Treasury companies have two options at this juncture"
X Link 2026-01-22T16:55Z 82.6K followers, 42.6K engagements
"What happens to market structure when MAG7 buybacks disappear this year Think diversifying out of megacap tech is important theme to consider this year"
X Link 2026-01-29T18:41Z 82.7K followers, 184.2K engagements
"@DuncanZahringer uhhh one month frequency with an N=1 tells you nothing about statistical significance lmao this is noise"
X Link 2026-01-31T01:28Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@hotpotato3141 Most of those are lagging indicators to the leading ones I posted give it time. And truflation I dont take seriously"
X Link 2026-02-02T15:11Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Seems the vibe is shifting on MAG7 in markets today. Here's the clip of my full META analysis on last week's roundup on AI Capex. What happens to market structure when MAG7 buybacks disappear this year Think diversifying out of megacap tech is important theme to consider this year. https://t.co/SzsjVA0woG What happens to market structure when MAG7 buybacks disappear this year Think diversifying out of megacap tech is important theme to consider this year. https://t.co/SzsjVA0woG"
X Link 2026-02-03T20:07Z 82.6K followers, 81.7K engagements
"Well Google earnings came out today and the theme of the great balance sheet transformation continues. Meta and Google combined provided $80b in annual buybacks to the equity market that is now going away. What happens to market structure when MAG7 buybacks disappear this year Think diversifying out of megacap tech is important theme to consider this year. https://t.co/SzsjVA0woG What happens to market structure when MAG7 buybacks disappear this year Think diversifying out of megacap tech is important theme to consider this year. https://t.co/SzsjVA0woG"
X Link 2026-02-04T22:36Z 82.6K followers, 105.2K engagements
"Regardless of whether AI disrupts other segments of the economy the catalyst of the most in demand and well paid sector (software engineering) turning into the most disrupted sounds pretty damn deflationary to me"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:15Z 82.6K followers, 24.4K engagements
"basically impossible to get a recession when you're doing $600b of new marginal capex in a year btw [---] billion dollars of Capex this year on AI data centers. To put a number like that in perspective this is more than what we spent on the U.S. interstate highway system (630 billion) more than what we spent on the Apollo Moon Program (257 billion) more than what we spent on [---] billion dollars of Capex this year on AI data centers. To put a number like that in perspective this is more than what we spent on the U.S. interstate highway system (630 billion) more than what we spent on the Apollo"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:19Z 82.6K followers, 117.3K engagements
"It seems like this has become the question du jour that markets are trying to figure out. @dampedspring and I discussed it at length in early Jan check it out AI capex is funded by its own spending loop. @dampedspring The money that funds the debt comes from the spending the debt creates. Borrow build pay suppliers and those dollars re-emerge as the capital that absorbs issuance. https://t.co/AMjDTAIuBw AI capex is funded by its own spending loop. @dampedspring The money that funds the debt comes from the spending the debt creates. Borrow build pay suppliers and those dollars re-emerge as the"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:21Z 82.6K followers, 19.8K engagements
"@0xKNL__ Im saying positive gdp growth but labor force getting wrecked. Discussed it in roundup we recorded today: What does a world of 4% gdp growth but large layoffs look like"
X Link 2026-02-06T02:11Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"RT @Icebergy: the vcs who funded all the dats and are now saying crypto is forever dead are some of the obnoxious people on this site"
X Link 2026-02-06T04:12Z 82.6K followers, [--] engagements
"Few months later and parts of this idea are invalidated. I think the idea that a magical cycle exists is dumb but I underestimated how the natural evolution of crypto markets creates a market structure where any old catalyst leads to the reflexive end point of a [--] year cycle. If I torture the headlines enough I could rationalize that this selloff is also monetary hawkishness driven ( Warsh nomination imploding all debasement trades) and force it into my framework but I think that belittles that those that followed thiss framework also nailed it. Well played and bravo 🤙 Four year cycle doesnt"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:32Z 82.6K followers, 37.7K engagements
"banger. I just published a new "Next Economy" post I hope you enjoy the read https://t.co/pcyHpZ19ue I just published a new "Next Economy" post I hope you enjoy the read https://t.co/pcyHpZ19ue"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:53Z 82.6K followers, 22.5K engagements
"RT @shaundadevens: http://x.com/i/article/2019733351691702272 http://x.com/i/article/2019733351691702272"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:46Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"New roundup up One of my favorites in a while. So much to talk about. @qthomp @Tyler_Neville_ @ForwardGuidance https://www.youtube.com/watchv=2y0sd446dJ0 https://www.youtube.com/watchv=2y0sd446dJ0"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:55Z 82.6K followers, 15.6K engagements
"Who's gonna finance it and what do they sell to do so And what happens to a market where hundreds of billions of $ of buybacks evaporate this year I think the rotation from growth to value factor underlines the market trying to digest these questions Headline indices look resilient because value is surging while growth is breaking down Under the surface AI data center CapEx is introducing credit risk and "removing buybacks at a time when everybody is long those stocks" @fejau_inc https://t.co/xKdrZUbGH4 Headline indices look resilient because value is surging while growth is breaking down"
X Link 2026-02-06T18:32Z 82.7K followers, 22.1K engagements
"@JamesChristoph_ . @grok is this true"
X Link 2026-02-06T21:38Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@LynAldenContact balance sheet going any lower is highly unlikely but the bar for meaningful balance sheet expansion and outright QE is now much higher and therefore the Fed put strike price much lower"
X Link 2026-02-06T23:10Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@AndreasSteno @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp Then why do capex numbers keep beat street estimates Obviously not fully baked in Weird comment dude"
X Link 2026-02-07T14:54Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Absolute banger of a post One of the funny phenomena in the macroeconomic data world is that normies seem to be unaware that there are a dozen+ data sources simultaneously attempting to measure the same various components of the US labor market -- vacancies layoffs expected job creation realized job One of the funny phenomena in the macroeconomic data world is that normies seem to be unaware that there are a dozen+ data sources simultaneously attempting to measure the same various components of the US labor market -- vacancies layoffs expected job creation realized job"
X Link 2026-02-07T17:24Z 82.6K followers, 28.3K engagements
"Big if true was sent a pretty in-depth report on what's driving the crypto unwind. the short version: more sellers than buyers was sent a pretty in-depth report on what's driving the crypto unwind. the short version: more sellers than buyers"
X Link 2026-02-07T19:13Z 82.6K followers, 22.4K engagements
"Isnt this more representative of Covid bubble hiring excess thats been normalized than any sort of AI related thing no one is talking about this https://t.co/jIaZMQp8gX no one is talking about this https://t.co/jIaZMQp8gX"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:56Z 82.7K followers, 33.5K engagements
"@CryptoParadyme Same with the Feds hiking cycle though You need a multi variate regression here"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:57Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"🫡🚀 Used to think @fejau_inc was the star of Forward guidance and the others were entertainment But recently @qthomp has called metals and software well and @Tyler_Neville_ is dropping insights for the next quarter(s) The diversity of the team works across different regimes Used to think @fejau_inc was the star of Forward guidance and the others were entertainment But recently @qthomp has called metals and software well and @Tyler_Neville_ is dropping insights for the next quarter(s) The diversity of the team works across different regimes"
X Link 2026-02-08T05:46Z 82.6K followers, 19.9K engagements
"@Youclidean Its a better form of polling in that regard yeah But its not gonna be the next great consumer app because enough insider trading leads to marginal exit liquidity becoming broke"
X Link 2026-02-09T03:50Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@ThePumponomics Basic statistics around expected value and how many times you can roll a bet"
X Link 2026-02-09T04:02Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"Yeah Im not saying they need to. Im saying if someone is playing something where they think they have a 51% chance of winning a bet based on available information but in reality their odds of winning are actually 49% because their counter party as information that cannot be accessed by them when you run the numbers that person just eventually runs out of money When you aggregate that dynamic the feedback loop cannot be sustained. Insider training is illegal for more than just ethical reasons it also can sorta break math"
X Link 2026-02-09T04:15Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@ThePumponomics Yes and check out what happened lol every token is down only and we havent seen meaningful retail adoption in over [--] years"
X Link 2026-02-09T04:33Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"it's fun cause no matter what you post you'll always be called an idiot by the other side of the argument regardless @fejau_inc One of the notable things I notice under a lot of you and the other forward guidance bois posts about macro is how many people seem to have anchored themselves to the "we need hikes" and the "we're going to crash" mindset. [--] years of non stop financial doomerism took a toll on em @fejau_inc One of the notable things I notice under a lot of you and the other forward guidance bois posts about macro is how many people seem to have anchored themselves to the "we need"
X Link 2026-02-09T20:47Z 82.6K followers, 13K engagements
"@Tradermayne "The first thing China will do is terminate ALL Ice Hockey being played in Canada and permanently eliminate The Stanley Cup." what in the hell is he talking about"
X Link 2026-02-10T00:27Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@xEbumx Haha yeah sadly Im 10x busier these days"
X Link 2026-02-11T03:44Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@Beav53 @0xkyle__ Im not talking about a market crash wtf"
X Link 2026-02-11T05:58Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@WarrenPies Im convinced were early business cycle and its gonna break a lot of peoples brains"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:30Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@MarketsPuke @DannyDayan5 @Savanojito @EconstratPB These accounts are so fascinating. Dont tweet out anything themselves and their entire existence is being a reply guy and upset about other peoples views. Crazy to see"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:36Z 82.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@Evan_ss6 there are good stonks to own out there"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:54Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@DannyDayan5 the long short boiz are fighting for their lives beneath the index hahahaha"
X Link 2026-02-12T19:40Z 82.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@PeeTapeExpert Why would an economic re acceleration impact alt coins lmao"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:56Z 82.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@lazyvillager1 Lesson in there"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:57Z 82.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@PeeTapeExpert There are plenty of people with plenty of money already the issue is these things are uninvestable in their current construct"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:03Z 82.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@Tyler_Neville_ was just thinking that its time to test the conviction of these free trades"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:06Z 82.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@notthreadguy Real"
X Link 2026-02-13T05:42Z 82.7K followers, [----] engagements
"the economy is re-accelerating There is a significant shift happening in the freight economy. The industrials are starting to ramp while imports are soft. This is a very different than what weve seen over the past decade. https://t.co/MyUbzUxXrG There is a significant shift happening in the freight economy. The industrials are starting to ramp while imports are soft. This is a very different than what weve seen over the past decade. https://t.co/MyUbzUxXrG"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:28Z 82.7K followers, 46.8K engagements
"Chumba logging on and deciding whether to crash out about quantum or AI everyday @chumbawamba22"
X Link 2026-02-11T04:25Z 82.7K followers, [----] engagements
"POV: you're about to go up against a Canadian powerplay line of Makar Mcdavid Crosby and Mackinnon"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:45Z 82.7K followers, 12.4K engagements
"RT @VincentDeluard: It was awesome to chat with the excellent @fejau_inc on @ForwardGuidance I explained my case for a late [----] secula"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:35Z 82.7K followers, [--] engagements
"@howtoswingtrade @chainlank Idk what happened to the algo but the quality of my replies to tweets has gotten way worse lately"
X Link 2026-02-14T19:28Z 82.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@0xkyle__ It feels like February 2020"
X Link 2026-02-11T03:14Z 82.7K followers, 16.6K engagements
"First positive manufacturing payrolls in a very long time private payrolls surging UR down. The economy is re-accelerating"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:23Z 82.7K followers, 30.9K engagements
"Really nothing changing for me. Bullish energy metals commodities industrials and they all keep performing. Just sitting on these trades and not doing much. Continue to believe MAG7 and tech and therefore crypto w/ that correlation continues to underperform Energy and metals could be one of the clearest trades heading into next year because they make sense in so many potential regimes @fejau_inc ➤ Physical bottlenecks across key commodities ➤ Hedge against inflation/deficits ➤ Benefit from lower real rates ➤ Benefit from AI https://t.co/w8zxJObEfJ Energy and metals could be one of the"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:30Z 82.7K followers, 28.8K engagements
"In world of noisy economic data with endless revisions and seasonal adjustments I'm a huge fan of looking at tax collections via the treasury daily statement data. Hard data money in money out no adjustments. And as @VincentDeluard discusses it was up 24% yoy vs last january Tax receipts say no recession and growth is accelerating "In the next four weeks were gonna get about $200 billion in tax refund checks and when you have a windfall gain you just spend it right away. @VincentDeluard https://t.co/9OHy7jpuLi Tax receipts say no recession and growth is accelerating "In the next four weeks"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:20Z 82.7K followers, 17.9K engagements
"Get your tickets T-minus [--] days until DAS NYC March 24-26 See you there https://t.co/fG2xWlRHbi T-minus [--] days until DAS NYC March 24-26 See you there https://t.co/fG2xWlRHbi"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:23Z 82.7K followers, [----] engagements
"god i love this team"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:07Z 82.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Every fundamental positive headline gets sold into. Broken market. Sad days"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:51Z 82.7K followers, 73.5K engagements
"Really good one I think NEW ROUNDUP: Dispersion Is Exploding While Main Street Reaccelerates We Cover: 🔸 Labor market reacceleration 🔸 Unprecedented market dispersion 🔸 AI breaking correlations 🔸 Rotation to bottlenecks 🔸 Why Bitcoin is failing & more @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp @fejau_inc Links https://t.co/dNdJUkhaFY NEW ROUNDUP: Dispersion Is Exploding While Main Street Reaccelerates We Cover: 🔸 Labor market reacceleration 🔸 Unprecedented market dispersion 🔸 AI breaking correlations 🔸 Rotation to bottlenecks 🔸 Why Bitcoin is failing & more @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp @fejau_inc Links"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:50Z 82.7K followers, [----] engagements
"The normie redditor world crashing out about 4o model being deprecated is so freaky - full on black mirror ai psychosis"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:02Z 82.7K followers, 10.9K engagements
"What Holy smokes theres a HUGE community of people who have formed such a deep emotional connection with GPT-4o that theyre absolutely losing it at the notion of OpenAI turning it off. And super mad theyre turning it off just before Valentines Day 😬 https://t.co/xDDFYwV1UH Holy smokes theres a HUGE community of people who have formed such a deep emotional connection with GPT-4o that theyre absolutely losing it at the notion of OpenAI turning it off. And super mad theyre turning it off just before Valentines Day 😬 https://t.co/xDDFYwV1UH"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:30Z 82.7K followers, 27K engagements
"With this week's jobs revisions my framework of a main street recession happening last spring that was papered over by large AI capex and top percentile income earners spending like mad makes more sense. And now IMO we're coming out the other side of it The labor market bottomed and is now re-accelerating Januarys 130k non-farm payroll print is the first statistically meaningful job growth in a year pointing to an early-cycle re-acceleration. We had a little recession in the spring.and now were starting to lift off https://t.co/IwIVJc4QR0 The labor market bottomed and is now re-accelerating"
X Link 2026-02-13T16:28Z 82.7K followers, 15.9K engagements
"Few more DAT unwinds then up only Another DAT bites the dust and pivots to AI. Cango puked 55% of their BTC last week the 4th biggest DAT sell ever after seeing its share price fall over 60% since adopting a Bitcoin standard and falling over 80% from all time high. https://t.co/dn9qcHLBNX Another DAT bites the dust and pivots to AI. Cango puked 55% of their BTC last week the 4th biggest DAT sell ever after seeing its share price fall over 60% since adopting a Bitcoin standard and falling over 80% from all time high. https://t.co/dn9qcHLBNX"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:29Z 82.7K followers, 33.9K engagements
"Openclaw built me a better portfolio dashboard than any single one Ive paid for and took me one hour of casual prompting while sitting on my couch and now if I want to make any sort of tweak or add a specific feature it takes [--] mins and its done Absolutely insane"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:34Z 82.7K followers, 70.3K engagements
"Marked safe from AGI AI makes podcasts MORE important not less AI means anyone can sound smart in written form But you cant fake verbal intelligence Verbalmaxxing speechmoggers will inherit the earth AI makes podcasts MORE important not less AI means anyone can sound smart in written form But you cant fake verbal intelligence Verbalmaxxing speechmoggers will inherit the earth"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:35Z 82.7K followers, 13.3K engagements
"One must always read the chumba even if his theses make you uncomfortable in the moment My friend @chumbawamba22 is launching a Substack which I have been encouraging him to do for quite a while now. He is a divergent and original thinker and the sheer richness of his thoughts demand a longer format. My own experience is that writing has a way of sharpening the My friend @chumbawamba22 is launching a Substack which I have been encouraging him to do for quite a while now. He is a divergent and original thinker and the sheer richness of his thoughts demand a longer format. My own experience is"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:43Z 82.7K followers, 23.3K engagements
"Crypto native VC is giga cooked uncomfortable reality about most vc-funded crypto projects is that a solo builder with claude code and/or codex could replicate 80% of them in a few weeks not a team of [--] not $10mil in funding one person with an AI coding tool and a clear idea of what the product actually does https://t.co/vMfEHLtU5c uncomfortable reality about most vc-funded crypto projects is that a solo builder with claude code and/or codex could replicate 80% of them in a few weeks not a team of [--] not $10mil in funding one person with an AI coding tool and a clear idea of what the product"
X Link 2026-02-16T06:06Z 82.7K followers, 53.2K engagements
"As long as accounts on here are engagement baiting by using free models from ages ago as a proof point we're still early to the whole thing I want to wash my car. The car wash is [--] meters away. Should I walk or drive Ask this to your AI. Watch it blow up 💣 Your job is safe. Relax. https://t.co/WuIN2VfkQx I want to wash my car. The car wash is [--] meters away. Should I walk or drive Ask this to your AI. Watch it blow up 💣 Your job is safe. Relax. https://t.co/WuIN2VfkQx"
X Link 2026-02-16T20:53Z 82.7K followers, 20.1K engagements
"The fact that so many people think Warsh will be a hawk and that Trump somehow missed this in his vetting process is ill thought out and laughable Really"
X Link 2026-01-30T15:31Z 82.6K followers, 62.5K engagements
"To reduce the balance sheet any further would require a total restructuring of how the Fed employs monetary policy and controls front end rates Yes the Fed buying MBS again is much less likely and thats a good thing. But the balance sheet isnt going lower now that Im Fed Chair we should look at reducing the balance sheet no okay https://t.co/44U0FD5oMD now that Im Fed Chair we should look at reducing the balance sheet no okay https://t.co/44U0FD5oMD"
X Link 2026-01-30T15:39Z 82.6K followers, 31.7K engagements
"@mrporky333 If the spend [--] seconds looking into his relationship with Trump theyd get it"
X Link 2026-01-30T15:40Z 82.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@AndreasSteno I feel like Im taking crazy pills this morning"
X Link 2026-01-30T15:44Z 82.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Lotta good stuff in this one NEW ROUNDUP: The Fed Is Background Noise While Markets Reprice Reality We Cover: 🔸 Most boring Fed meeting 🔸 Mindblowing metals squeeze 🔸 Can you justify U.S. multiples 🔸 AI CapEx killing buybacks & more @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp @fejau_inc Links Below https://t.co/ny3AwEM07b NEW ROUNDUP: The Fed Is Background Noise While Markets Reprice Reality We Cover: 🔸 Most boring Fed meeting 🔸 Mindblowing metals squeeze 🔸 Can you justify U.S. multiples 🔸 AI CapEx killing buybacks & more @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp @fejau_inc Links Below https://t.co/ny3AwEM07b"
X Link 2026-01-30T16:14Z 82.6K followers, 11.5K engagements
"SLV down -20% in one day since we recorded this yesterday 😅 ouch No surprise metals are melting today after a complete mania The one China silver fund was trading at a 42% premium Meanwhile silver ETF volume was on par with SPY @qthomp @fejau_inc https://t.co/M8xte9b2jM No surprise metals are melting today after a complete mania The one China silver fund was trading at a 42% premium Meanwhile silver ETF volume was on par with SPY @qthomp @fejau_inc https://t.co/M8xte9b2jM"
X Link 2026-01-30T17:00Z 82.6K followers, 16.3K engagements
"Posted my entire trading log history in Claude to ask for feedback and it basically roasted me for ever trying to trade bonds and told me to give up 👍"
X Link 2026-01-31T01:23Z 82.6K followers, 59K engagements
"@jvisserlabs Its insane"
X Link 2026-01-31T16:38Z 82.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@Vince_R_Jansen @ForwardGuidance Claude really cooked with this chart and all of em in that section ngl"
X Link 2026-02-01T05:01Z 82.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@abcampbell Oh buddy. Welcome to the fucken show"
X Link 2026-02-01T18:30Z 82.5K followers, 10.4K engagements
"Lotta folks coming to this realization now. I dont know how much theyd realistically get the balance sheet any lower from here but I think balance sheet expansion above GDP growth is sooo far from being likely and QE is a pipe dream I dont know if I can emphasize enough just how far away we are from any sort of QE copium Bessent wants a fed chair that gets us out of balance sheet shenanigans and simplifying things to how they were pre-ample regime. Dovish FFR hawkish balance sheet. I dont know if I can emphasize enough just how far away we are from any sort of QE copium Bessent wants a fed"
X Link 2026-02-01T20:52Z 82.6K followers, 46.3K engagements
"Just wrapped recording a deep dive on the implications of the Warsh nomination and what could realistically happen to the balance sheet with @josephwang for @ForwardGuidance Out tomorrow and an absolute must watch to get up to speed on things"
X Link 2026-02-02T18:50Z 82.6K followers, 10.5K engagements
"It's a big bet and one that I think is worth making. If it pays off and the free cash flow begins to come in in a few years the AI bet will win out. but in the interim we're seeing these huge companies lever up"
X Link 2026-02-04T22:39Z 82.6K followers, 10.1K engagements
"@yieldsearcher USDC depegged 10centers in late [----] good times"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:15Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@abcampbell @twplsource Welcome to updating trades to a retail audience 😂"
X Link 2026-02-05T05:24Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"Whenever crypto re-emerges anew which I think it will fintech VCs who are much smarter will take the lions share imo"
X Link 2026-02-05T05:41Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@mdudas Wow who could have ever guessed it"
X Link 2026-02-05T05:44Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Amazon Capex $200b street estimate was $146b. Stock down 10% AH. The beat of the drum continues Well Google earnings came out today and the theme of the great balance sheet transformation continues. Meta and Google combined provided $80b in annual buybacks to the equity market that is now going away. https://t.co/Lvj5tujjAx Well Google earnings came out today and the theme of the great balance sheet transformation continues. Meta and Google combined provided $80b in annual buybacks to the equity market that is now going away. https://t.co/Lvj5tujjAx"
X Link 2026-02-05T21:11Z 82.6K followers, 26.6K engagements
"@MattSchmenk @qthomp Space data centers yo"
X Link 2026-02-06T00:22Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@10delta Fascinating. Recorded a roundup yesterday and at the end was asking what does the world look like with 4% real gdp growth and layoffs Will look into this"
X Link 2026-02-06T15:01Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"RT @ForwardGuidance: NEW ROUNDUP: Markets Are Entering A New Era Of AI-Driven Disruption We Cover: 🔸 Productivity regime shift 🔸 Mag7 buyb"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:58Z 82.6K followers, [--] engagements
"@JamesChristoph_ @qthomp revenue sure but what about free cash flow"
X Link 2026-02-06T21:55Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@RetailGaslight https://x.com/fejau_inc/status/2019781373993918929 Few months later and parts of this idea are invalidated. I think the idea that a magical cycle exists is dumb but I underestimated how the natural evolution of crypto markets creates a market structure where any old catalyst leads to the reflexive end point of a [--] year cycle. https://x.com/fejau_inc/status/2019781373993918929 Few months later and parts of this idea are invalidated. I think the idea that a magical cycle exists is dumb but I underestimated how the natural evolution of crypto markets creates a market structure"
X Link 2026-02-06T23:42Z 82.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@AndreasSteno @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp Amazon capex is 50% higher than what was expected. It clearly isnt fully understood"
X Link 2026-02-07T14:58Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@AndreasSteno @ABurnhard95 @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp Tyler works at muddy waters. How is that not a professional manager I know its kinda youre thing but you can really be a pompous dick sometimes"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:06Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@AndreasSteno @ABurnhard95 @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp And Ive also been talking about this dynamic for many months. This isnt the first time Im talking about it. Can find stuff as far back as early fall. Again weird vibe youre on today Andreas"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:09Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@AndreasSteno @ABurnhard95 @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp It would be a reality check for these guys to chat to a few professional managers ocassionally This is a very different point that youre making actually"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:10Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@AndreasSteno @ABurnhard95 @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp I know its a reasonable view. Im Wondering why you feel like you have to be so elitist about it"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:10Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@AndreasSteno @ABurnhard95 @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp For example this is from November Youre implying like we just discovered this AIs CapEx surge is entering a new phase driven by credit not equity By next year nearly 80% of FCF will be funneled directly into AI CapEx forcing bond markets to fill the gap This is an important shift because credit investors generally have a fundamentally different risk https://t.co/0sd2qaPNOP AIs CapEx surge is entering a new phase driven by credit not equity By next year nearly 80% of FCF will be funneled directly into AI CapEx forcing bond markets to fill the"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:14Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@AndreasSteno @ABurnhard95 @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp Tbh my dude the criticism has moved into so many different directions Im not really sure what your issue is anymore"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:22Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@AndreasSteno @ABurnhard95 @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp I believe by people he means the average passive fund owner that became accidentally overweight mag7 and is unaware of this shit Not talking about a niche bottom up portfolio manager that spends [--] hours a week focusing on this stuff lol"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:28Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@AndreasSteno @ABurnhard95 @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp Shift* not shit"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:28Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@chumbawamba22 Bro just discovered risk management"
X Link 2026-02-07T17:11Z 82.6K followers, [---] engagements
"Out now Chatting with @MacroAlf 🎙NEW POD: Trumps Tariffs Could Stall Growth Before [----] Surge We Discuss: 🔶 Trumps growing influence over the Fed 🔶 Impact of OBBB & tariffs on fiscal impulse 🔶 Asset allocation in a hot economy 🔶 Under-allocation to European markets @MacroAlf @fejau_inc Links Below https://t.co/O0KewVFVx8 🎙NEW POD: Trumps Tariffs Could Stall Growth Before [----] Surge We Discuss: 🔶 Trumps growing influence over the Fed 🔶 Impact of OBBB & tariffs on fiscal impulse 🔶 Asset allocation in a hot economy 🔶 Under-allocation to European markets @MacroAlf @fejau_inc Links Below"
X Link 2025-08-27T14:16Z 82.7K followers, 12.7K engagements
"The feds plans for QT [---] are kryptonite for risk assets. My interview with @dampedspring is live now. An incredibly in depth conversation with unique views I dont see anywhere else rn. Link in the next tweet @ForwardGuidance"
X Link 2025-02-26T14:45Z 82.7K followers, 75K engagements
"Apparently the chillhouse dev was front row at the Forward Guidance roundup at Permissionless and I need think about the implications of this"
X Link 2025-06-27T02:05Z 82.7K followers, 45.3K engagements
"Reddit is quitting their job after making $92k. Were certainly not early"
X Link 2025-10-04T23:50Z 82.7K followers, 954.6K engagements
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