@evrgn11112231 Avatar @evrgn11112231 Evergreen

Evergreen posts on X about ai, meta, $mco, asml the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance #5269 technology brands 22.37% stocks 17.76% cryptocurrencies 1.32% social networks 1.32% fashion brands 0.66% countries 0.66% financial services 0.66%

Social topic influence ai #2954, meta #4083, $mco #5, asml #19, if you 4.61%, money 3.95%, in the 3.95%, business #1789, llm 3.29%, growth #3579

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @bucketshopcap @pythiar @waterworldcapi1 @tbu12345678 @flippyfloppy52 @taobanker @buccocapital @viggykrishnan @southernvalue95 @msp194 @tmtlongshort @morganwu8 @rubicon59 @altaycapital @safecheapstocks @fiscaldaddy @ramcocapital @joinyellowbrick @relativaluemike @yummycenturyegg

Top assets mentioned Moody's Corporation (MCO) Metadium (META) TransDigm Group, Inc. (TDG) Charter Communications Inc (CHTR) S&P Global Inc (SPGI) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Verox (VRX) UnitedHealth Group (UNH) SAP SE (SAP) Snap, Inc. (SNAP) Adobe, Inc. (ADBE)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@RAMCOCAPITAL @DynamicMoats @PythiaR @ErnestWongBWM Are you buying $TDG or $VRX $MCO or $UNH These seem obvious in hindsight but ex-ante it's extremely difficult to determine and that's where the alpha is"
X Link 2025-05-15T14:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@RandolphDuke7 @dennisihong @don_tran_EnloAI No there are businesses that can both grow and give all of their cash back to shareholders. While not 10% growth BME LN which I mentioned is one of those cases"
X Link 2025-05-31T22:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@chat_SBC Any tickers High quality growing top line sustainably 10-15% trading sub 25x gaap PE"
X Link 2026-01-03T22:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@taobanker @matt_slotnick @atelicinvest This is the end state of every saas convo on this platform. The downside of saas investors thinking valuation doesnt matter (they are about to find out it does)"
X Link 2026-01-04T01:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@taobanker @matt_slotnick @atelicinvest I dont know anything about it"
X Link 2026-01-04T01:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Lets be real - the only reason gold and silver are going up so much is because crypto died and levered speculative money found a new home. Remember this when your fundamental macro managers with 100% of pnl attribution from precious metals tell you a smart sounding story about dollar debasement and hold them to it when the trade randomly blows up on no fundamental news. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015079267009528279 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015079267009528279"
X Link 2026-01-24T15:08Z [----] followers, 35.3K engagements

"@buccocapital you crazy bottom ticker you - let me know when we are backing up the truck on $MSFT and $SAP"
X Link 2026-01-29T17:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@GlobalTMTMoose @RyeNotBerben He's just ecstatic rayban meta glasses are sold out"
X Link 2026-01-29T22:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Ok. But: are any of these companies ever going to return that fcf to shareholders Or will they spend it all to try to make sure that terminal value is not zero and the growth rates you mention are sustainable And will that spend create or destroy value Thats what actually matters and I suspect for many of these companies its the latter. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017619295828623596 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017619295828623596"
X Link 2026-01-31T15:21Z [----] followers, 11.7K engagements

"@MDD_IRR Ive consistently said Im a buyer for many at 7-15x gaap pe"
X Link 2026-01-31T18:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@buccocapital @MDD_IRR lol ex adbe* I should clarify Im only really interested in systems of record"
X Link 2026-01-31T18:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Striking how similar current saas bulls sound to 2021-24 cable bulls"
X Link 2026-01-31T18:26Z [----] followers, 47.7K engagements

"@WaterworldCapi1 think you are right $chtr now probably more interesting than most of saas"
X Link 2026-01-31T18:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The most dangerous implication of the rule of [--] math is the mostly flawed assumption (that underpins much of these valuation assumptions historically) that you can just trade a point of revenue growth for a point of margin at some terminal period - so a no margin 30% grower is just assumed to be able to generate 25% op margin one day without any evidence ever (and valued like it has that margin today). https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017742364341604526 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017742364341604526"
X Link 2026-01-31T23:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I havent gotten this much hate on a post since last week when I called precious metals a bubble. Striking how similar current saas bulls sound to 2021-24 cable bulls. Striking how similar current saas bulls sound to 2021-24 cable bulls"
X Link 2026-02-01T05:11Z [----] followers, 13.8K engagements

"@ERiC_RuDeN23 @charity12301230 @PythiaR less engine exposure and different levels / lumpiness of channel inventory. just lumpy. they just said it's 50/50 contribution for their underperformance vs market"
X Link 2026-02-03T16:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Selling my ASML to buy gold"
X Link 2026-02-03T19:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@firstadopter no AI will build the tools"
X Link 2026-02-03T20:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"it's not just that saas bros were killing it for so long but they did it with the most nonsensical magical-pie-in-the-sky-galaxy-brain theses all while flexing about how valuation doesn't matter and the only thing that matters is the direction of kpi revisions. so its funny to see them learn the hard way that valuation does in fact matter and their precious revisions and fairly tales can't save them https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018828788088656336 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018828788088656336"
X Link 2026-02-03T23:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"AI is basically worse for CRA's than the GFC so $MCO should go back to post GFC lows of $15"
X Link 2026-02-04T16:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@R_and_Invest GCP is lower quality revenue than ad revenue"
X Link 2026-02-04T22:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@NYC_Rivera if shop weren't so expensive i would actually think could be a really interesting long"
X Link 2026-02-04T23:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I understand the ROI may be good today - I'm saying that I'm skeptical that long term it will be a great business. GCP is far inferior to FOA imo. and we pay for and value the consolidated businesses anyway. and if we are adjusting for segments let's make sure we aren't perpetually capitalizing RL too. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019189263426879677 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019189263426879677"
X Link 2026-02-04T23:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"If $GOOGL was really AI pilled they should abandon GCP entirely and hoard all the infra and model magic for themselves. If you get something close to AGI why would you let any other company use it @Rubbabubub @WaterworldCapi1 it's super capital intensive and competitive. i think if ai maxis are right too then you should only be in the 1p capacity business. i think whomever controls the most 1P infra over time will be the most valuable is my current swag view @Rubbabubub @WaterworldCapi1 it's super capital intensive and competitive. i think if ai maxis are right too then you should only be in"
X Link 2026-02-04T23:53Z [----] followers, 46.7K engagements

"@buccocapital @WaterworldCapi1 @PythiaR What was his fav idea"
X Link 2026-02-05T04:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$MCO selling off an anthropic financial update 🤣 This must be how the JPM IT guy felt lmao AI coming for $MCO too. Send it lower. AI coming for $MCO too. Send it lower"
X Link 2026-02-05T18:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@riddle245 @PythiaR also the hyperscaler capex is presumably front loaded dc shell builds too"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"It can be true that public cloud Lt sustainability is unclear given the financial profile of their customers while also true that saas was overvalued and potentially extremely negatively impacted long term by these technical developments. It can also be true that the market hadnt a down month since April [----] and sometimes stocks go down for no fundamental reason at all"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@TBU12345678 @viggy_krishnan The msci world has compounded at like 15-20% the last few years Thats def not normal"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@TBU12345678 @viggy_krishnan Ya but dont confuse the core with the total Thats like LO mistake #1 thinking the entire pie is good when its really just a sliver"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@TBU12345678 @viggy_krishnan Half of googl capex spend is gcp / external customers. Half of msft rpo is oai (shitco). Jassey went out of his way to say all the capex is for external customers No one knows how any of these customers are making money or will in the future"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Msp194 @TBU12345678 @viggy_krishnan Ive been talking about this stuff on here for months"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Msp194 @TBU12345678 @viggy_krishnan Sold msft and stx in early Nov because of it too"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"For sure - $TDG is down like 15% the last few days on a print which I thought was very much fine. But I also understand that it had a punchy multiple and its ok for stocks to go down sometimes (and frankly all year much of my portfolio had been bouncing up and down within 15% ranges for no real reason). https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019585314084294725 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019585314084294725"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@invertedfragil1 They like them when they are free. How do we make things free in the economy Ads. Who has perfected probabilistic ad targeting at scale and has infra ready to support it $META"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I'm not sure. When will Anthropic be profitable or at least sustainably self funding I think you also have to have a view on inference profitability vs training costs over time (I don't but can see how it may not be so clear cut if model shelf life is short and training costs rise exponentially). I'm also not sure that inference compute rental will indeed be a great moated high roic business LT. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019596482622488753 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019596482622488753"
X Link 2026-02-06T02:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Well more importantly for me - it's not clear to me at all that cloud will turn out to be good businesses in either scenario to be fair I thought the same thing about CPU cloud as well. The potential offset here is the size of the TAM being so large that the CSPs can still be decent investments even if roic isn't forever great bc they get a massive amount of growth and probably deploy capital WACC"
X Link 2026-02-06T02:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Beutty @TBU12345678 @viggy_krishnan I'm more interested in the application layer and what gets created with all of this compute and magical models the maxis talk about (hence my post that googl shouldn't even be doing gcp at all potentially)"
X Link 2026-02-06T02:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@viggy_krishnan @TBU12345678 Is it really that surprising considering how $META got taken out back and shot the relative valuations made no sense"
X Link 2026-02-06T02:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@rev_cap Should have hired @P_Remarks as their head of BD and come public via reverse merger with $SNAP"
X Link 2026-02-06T03:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I view investment research as akin to the slow LLM training process. Its not supposed to be fast. The goal is to ingest raw data over long periods of time to train your brain (the ultimate LLM) for instant recall and pattern matching later. The test then being if you can in your mind decompose your thesis and match the points to the original primary sources you drew on. Thats where conviction and ability to adapt Bayesianly (change your mind in response to new data) comes from. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020138476188889490 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020138476188889490"
X Link 2026-02-07T14:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Yes and you can do all of that (I think) in a higher quality manner without LLMs it just requires more work. Do think theres a lot of automation workflow that some smart analysts on here are doing with Claude code that is really cool and that I would value if I had someone set it all up for me across each name I own or track. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020145467410018589 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020145467410018589"
X Link 2026-02-07T14:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Msp194 @stevehou @lowellfield Not really its much more important for high growth high multiple assets given the weight of TV in the dcf. And fact that the starting point for most saas valuations already assumed a lot of heroic assumptions"
X Link 2026-02-07T14:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I know it seems like an LLM could have helped me but I assure you it couldnt. I spent almost an entire year thinking about nothing other than asml and tsmc. And a lot of my work was really reading the same technical articles or journals 10-20 times until I felt like I understood it. The one area LLMs clearly could have helped me early on was just in the explaining of a lot of technical concepts in the semi industry. Thinks like how a transistor actually works dimensions of different features and why they are important etc. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020156316891680965"
X Link 2026-02-07T15:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@DivinelyLevered @joinyellowbrick Or even next quarter when am growth likely reaccels again"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The first sentence is the right framing and am impressed you found it bc few do. I think what most people miss though is that we have now reached a point in time where the moats theyve built in that distribution theyve created are essentially unassailable. And the content they are distributing costs them next to nothing relative to their competitors (short form only requires little infra relative to YouTube and they dont pay creators). So you cant recreate the scale of their network and bc of time / data / compute their algo lead cant be broken and grows larger by the day"
X Link 2026-02-07T17:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@ggpcap @zephyr_z9 Ya I can see how maintaining a big coverage universe would require heavy LLM use where getting the 80% right is half the battle anyway"
X Link 2026-02-07T17:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Beutty What like take an LLM and have it give you a quarterly test across your portfolio"
X Link 2026-02-07T17:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@joinyellowbrick lol not a dead stock and agree to disagree moving on now"
X Link 2026-02-07T21:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@WaterworldCapi1 @Frazier_Cap @TMTLongShort Except for err when China invades Taiwan Or Taiwan invasion canceled bc its inconvenient for new AI maxi thesis"
X Link 2026-02-08T03:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@WaterworldCapi1 $META engagement and roas acceleration and downstream multiplier effect from all of their GPU investments about to single handedly add a few points to GDP growth"
X Link 2026-02-08T04:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@SouthernValue95 The engagement and ads are basically all that matters I think. Its basically just one big data problem and AI I think is perfectly suited to turn that data into money"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@bucketshopcap I generally agree but this selloff is actually really dumb. SPGI just gave pod bro like conservative guidance on their ratings business where they assume bc of tough comps in Q4 [----] it will have negative growth on the Q"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@WaterworldCapi1 @bucketshopcap to be clear i own mco not spgi. more ratings mix (but also trades at premium for that reason)"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@WaterworldCapi1 @bucketshopcap Ratings has more pricing power and card penetration eventual hits cap while issuance grows probably forever at nominal GDP + 1-2% at least (more levered to global Ent Value growth than rev) + pricing"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@WaterworldCapi1 @bucketshopcap ratings real pricing is 3-5% pa vs CC real pricing sub inflation I think (but get inflation from PCE)"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@WaterworldCapi1 @bucketshopcap CC processors grow faster near to mid term. While CRA's I think grow higher LT / higher terminal growth"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@WaterworldCapi1 @bucketshopcap no processors payment rails"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@UpslopeCapital Forgot the real first one: Value guys grave dance on short sellers (coming out of GFC) So now we've come full circle"
X Link 2026-02-10T18:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@RelativalueMike who is trading at 30x"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@HedgeyeComm That would require real modeling skills. Cost curves fixed vs variable costs price vs volume capital intensity. Analyzing macro cyclicality. Words most software analysts have never heard much less know how to do"
X Link 2026-02-12T04:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Yes I don't use stop losses and my max size increases as risk / reward improves. So this kind of vol is basically always extremely profitable for high quality businesses (doesn't work obviously for things that actually break of course). You will lose money if you are really wrong about the biz"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@icg_mode Just read what I wrote on ASML on my page from June to July. Basically the same thing although I was 2x the size in ASML at the lows (it also is more moated and had higher upside)"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@marc_slans only if you are a masochist like myself"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@marc_slans I prefer concentration. It's fine but they are similar bets and I'd rather own more of MCO"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@ser_kingslayer_ @SupBagholder This protest makes literally zero sense to me"
X Link 2026-02-14T01:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@viniciusrchs You can imagine lots of quality at any price funds are getting liquidated at the moment. So be a liquidity provider"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"And I actually think AI will eventually erode a lot of asset heavy moats where a big part of the moat was indeed IP / engineering know how as AI will improve r&d efficiency patent analysis manufacturing learning etc"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Also funny bc people act like AI is new and have no concept of classical machine learning and other CPU based AI methods (which these asset light incumbents like meta have employed at scale for over a decade) before the transformer / GPU based parallelized methods being successfully employed now. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022733081518707163 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022733081518707163"
X Link 2026-02-14T18:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Weve come full circle in [--] months - from AI is a bubble and it will never work to AI works so well that it will destroy everything. All from the same crowd 🤣 @GavinSBaker Why are value and macro investors so comfortable making highly confident prognostications about AI despite their manifest ignorance I don't recall many tech/growth investors penning long bearish highly confident and utterly ignorant analyses about energy in 2022/2023. Why are value and macro investors so comfortable making highly confident prognostications about AI despite their manifest ignorance I don't recall many"
X Link 2026-02-14T18:39Z [----] followers, 16.7K engagements

"https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1988730659091959897s=20 I think simplistically: 1) It's easy to avoid owning things you don't understand. 2) It sucks to underperform the index. 3) It sucks to underperform the index which largely benefits from things you don't own because you don't understand them. 4) It's hard to admit you're https://x.com/evrgn11112231/status/1988730659091959897s=20 I think simplistically: 1) It's easy to avoid owning things you don't understand. 2) It sucks to underperform the index. 3) It sucks to underperform the index which largely benefits from things you don't own"
X Link 2026-02-14T18:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Lot of these AI maxis are just crypto / nft / Web3 clowns with new skin"
X Link 2026-02-14T23:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@TMTLongShort You arent real ai maxi you are just opportunist late cycle theme maxer who had to pivot from self preservation after last mega call was hilariously wrong"
X Link 2026-02-14T23:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@morganwu8 @rubicon59 That doesnt answer the question of why meta cant do it better eventually What are the moats"
X Link 2026-02-15T01:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@ok198483 @MDD_IRR Adbe has risk of being a zero lt so basically uninvestable Lt for me. Dont know csu well enough but generally dont love low organic growth roll ups"
X Link 2026-01-31T18:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"People really dont liked being compared to $CHTR bulls of old"
X Link 2026-02-01T05:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@buccocapital @Cashflow_Cowboy and thoma bravo dumping bags at the top then taking under at the lows"
X Link 2026-02-03T23:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"AI coming for $MCO too. Send it lower. I don't think the market is saying that companies like Moodys are going to be displaced by AI (there are studies showing that a simple altman z-score are as effective as CRA) rather that MCO has functionally exerted price hikes via incremental layers of analytics which may not I don't think the market is saying that companies like Moodys are going to be displaced by AI (there are studies showing that a simple altman z-score are as effective as CRA) rather that MCO has functionally exerted price hikes via incremental layers of analytics which may not"
X Link 2026-02-04T16:50Z [----] followers, 16.3K engagements

"$ADBE is more moated and cheaper than $MCO @k3ithmccullough"
X Link 2026-02-04T17:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@k3ithmccullough $CHTR too"
X Link 2026-02-04T17:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"If this is indeed the top it won't be because of anything rational or fundamental but rather because the 3x leveraged $SOXX ETF $SOXL already hit $70. Due to decay in the last few cycles the ETF has basically just bounced between $10 and $70 (something I noticed last year and have kept in the back of my mind: the sector probably tops when SOXL hits $70 again). Sorry semi bulls I don't make the rules (also $ASML to zero pls thank you). 🤣 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019207608834441472 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019207608834441472"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Maybe we care now about the ROIC of the AWS customers $AMZN $META $GOOGL $MSFT @c0n5tantinople @JerryCap @obsidiancap1 @Crussian17 Why do we care about the ROIC on META's capex but we don't care about the ROIC on the compute spending from AWS customers What is Anthropic's current ROIC What are their margins even If AWS customers don't eventually get a return AWS eventually doesn't get a return on their @c0n5tantinople @JerryCap @obsidiancap1 @Crussian17 Why do we care about the ROIC on META's capex but we don't care about the ROIC on the compute spending from AWS customers What is Anthropic's"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I know $IGV was green today but friendly reminder for the weekend. These stocks arent pricing in zero terminal value in [--] years thats not how any of this works. Re saas valuations and valuing zero terminal value businesses. Also a comment about sbc (dilution isnt what matters but rather the cash cost of annual sbc grants). Re saas valuations and valuing zero terminal value businesses. Also a comment about sbc (dilution isnt what matters but rather the cash cost of annual sbc grants)"
X Link 2026-02-07T05:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@joinyellowbrick Ok $TDG is down 11% on earnings a couple of days ago and everything looks good"
X Link 2026-02-07T15:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"How do I buy Anthropic"
X Link 2026-02-08T15:40Z [----] followers, 10.3K engagements

"Its not that I dont believe what I said yesterday either. But feels like maybe Ive been doing raw pretraining on my own (necessary) but I just used Claude for a big post training run and getting the results back and shocked"
X Link 2026-02-08T16:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$MCO had a lower multiple than $STX this morning. That's it - that's the tweet"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@WaterworldCapi1 @bucketshopcap Ratings is actually I think one of the best businesses in the world and I'm not sure of anything else with a better LT growth algo + pricing power"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"🤣 $MCO $SPGI Morgan Stanley expects hyperscalers to borrow $400 billion this year more than double from $165 billion in [----]. The offering spree will drive high-grade corporate bond issuance to a record $2.25 trillion this year https://t.co/4PXDEnQW4o Morgan Stanley expects hyperscalers to borrow $400 billion this year more than double from $165 billion in [----]. The offering spree will drive high-grade corporate bond issuance to a record $2.25 trillion this year https://t.co/4PXDEnQW4o"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:57Z [----] followers, 15.2K engagements

"Rest now brothers. We have the watch. @viniciusrchs You can imagine lots of quality at any price funds are getting liquidated at the moment. So be a liquidity provider. @viniciusrchs You can imagine lots of quality at any price funds are getting liquidated at the moment. So be a liquidity provider"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@grok show me a picture of Moody's but in a bikini"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Bummer we couldn't meme this one into existence. AI is going to destroy $ASML. You heard it here first. AI is going to destroy $ASML. You heard it here first"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@JerryCap @RihardJarc everything is arr in vc world"
X Link 2026-02-12T22:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Ambroise23968 accurate as defined by what issuers pay mco and spgi 8bps per rating bc they get to save 50bps per year on the interest rate. it's not there for any other reason except for as a currency standard so bond buyers have a way of comparing bonds vs other issuers vs history etc"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Athipatla Lucky fraud at best. Fraud fraud at worst"
X Link 2026-02-13T01:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@taobanker Also meta is going to vibe code them out of existence eventually"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@AltayCapital Nah - no amount of track will change my mind"
X Link 2026-02-13T23:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@AltayCapital @Athipatla @PythiaR I dont care about his political views. If you want to learn feel free to ask instead of coming in guns blazing. Just read literally anything he writes about investing. And if you cant see it then I cant help you"
X Link 2026-02-13T23:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@SafeCheapStocks @bucketshopcap I mean coatue is a tech fund"
X Link 2026-02-14T03:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@SafeCheapStocks @bucketshopcap What are you arguing about Its mostly tech"
X Link 2026-02-14T03:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@corleonecapital @bucketshopcap @buccocapital YouTube can also distribute independent content just as well or better than Netflix"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"We also know that the main bottleneck to LLM usefulness now is actually quality of proprietary data it is trained on. Scale AIs entire business. And that is still just for making useful general purpose models. Another thing entirely for an upstart then to take those models and somehow beat incumbents without the rich data (vs the incumbents plugging ai into existing workflows like they already doing)"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@flippyfloppy52 @seamoon183194 @dampedspring Do you worry that tsmc will do more of the ip library work in house over time"
X Link 2026-02-14T18:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I just wonder about it bc they are doing a lot internally already with ai on computational lithography and yield improvement. They probably have better data than external IP companies so maybe they just start offering libraries over time. I havent thought a lot about it but would probably keep me from every owning snps (I own ASML and tsm). https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022751248772932089 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022751248772932089"
X Link 2026-02-14T19:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Im not saying its as cheap as this (and Im def not trying to call a bottom) but the current sentiment and debate on $ASML (what if this happens need to assume that cant own it bc) reminds me of a second hand Seth Klarman story I heard many years ago (I know I know - Klarman jokes but he was right on this). It was early [----] and I believe he was pitching Cheniere Energy ($LNG) at Lyford or some other exclusive idea event. The stock was $25-30 at the time. Everyone hated it (including me even though it was our funds biggest position). Spot lng prices had collapsed due to short term s/d"
X Link 2025-07-30T05:19Z [----] followers, 73.6K engagements

"I think simplistically: 1) It's easy to avoid owning things you don't understand. 2) It sucks to underperform the index. 3) It sucks to underperform the index which largely benefits from things you don't own because you don't understand them. 4) It's hard to admit you're underperforming because you don't understand the things benefiting the index. 5) It's easier to rationalize your lack of understanding (and not owning things that have risen a lot) by making strawman arguments against them - this likely also helps retain clients as many investors probably feel the same. Why are value and"
X Link 2025-11-12T22:08Z [----] followers, 35.7K engagements

"@AltayCapital @Athipatla @PythiaR I think he's dumb and unethical. That's all there really is to it. No track could change that opinion"
X Link 2026-02-13T23:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"AI is going to destroy $ASML. You heard it here first"
X Link 2026-02-03T19:11Z [----] followers, 34.2K engagements

"Saas bros grave dance on value guys Quality guys grave dance on saas bros Negative alpha guys grave dance on quality guys What comes next"
X Link 2026-02-10T18:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@FiscalDaddy @losaturnalia I was talking about ai maxis"
X Link 2026-02-15T00:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"People have no idea how valuable the data sitting inside MCO/SPGI and MA/V will be once AI maximized. Literally their data exists to help people make moderately better decisions to save moderately small amounts of money - which are still multiples the value of what they charge. Every data company is one fine tuned model release away from multi bag btw Every data company is one fine tuned model release away from multi bag btw"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:40Z [----] followers, 41.2K engagements

"lol don't own enough $MCO "What's in a name That which we call a rose By any other name would smell as sweet" Two paths for $MCO and $SPGI to lose at least half of their value: 1) Search for "S&P" and "Moody's" in the credit docs and policy & procedure manuals and replace all with "Claude Ratings" and "What's in a name That which we call a rose By any other name would smell as sweet" Two paths for $MCO and $SPGI to lose at least half of their value: 1) Search for "S&P" and "Moody's" in the credit docs and policy & procedure manuals and replace all with "Claude Ratings" and"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:58Z [----] followers, 15.6K engagements

"I've never met anyone who can perfectly time a bottom. Waste of time and trying to protect against single stock drawdowns I'm pretty confident is alpha detracting for an emotionally tolerant + long term investor (few are either of those things; even fewer are both). And not only is it fine as long as you've sized properly along the way and you don't capitulate at the wrong time - I strongly believe its meaningfully alpha enhancing if you can do it well. So - I don't care if it goes lower I'll just make it even bigger. It's one of the most moated businesses in the world with one of the best LT"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:19Z [----] followers, 14.3K engagements

"Its so interesting how quickly this narrative has taken over investor discourse. For many capital light businesses the source of their moats are far from just the IP itself. Network effects proprietary data creating value from that data incumbency / inertia distribution - were always more important and AI doesnt change this - it often actually makes those things more valuable. Bc AI is actually nothing without all of these things anymore than excel is something without a computer. Meanwhile - asset heavy businesses may not be under threat from AI specifically but they are still under threat"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:17Z [----] followers, 17.1K engagements

"@SouthernValue95 @GavinSBaker I think they are just playing different games tbh. Meta isnt trying to build for the enterprise market the way the others are and def dont need to win the chatbot race (something where having something good enough as they do now is all they really need to one shot grandma)"
X Link 2026-02-14T19:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@FiscalDaddy Sure but that doesnt mean we will get agi"
X Link 2026-02-15T00:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@morganwu8 @rubicon59 In theory not everyone could do it Meta is in a unique position given their scale ad engine compute and data"
X Link 2026-02-15T02:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@yummyCenturyEgg @gary_stangs lol dont make me tag your accounts. Dont get me wrong I respect the hustle substacks dont sell themselves"
X Link 2026-02-15T16:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Judging by ASML experience the bottom is only in when only [--] professionals on here admit to owning the stock and everyone else just makes fun of you for being bad at your job"
X Link 2026-01-17T01:40Z [----] followers, 16.3K engagements

"$MCO @icg_mode I've never met anyone who can perfectly time a bottom. Waste of time and trying to protect against single stock drawdowns I'm pretty confident is alpha detracting for an emotionally tolerant + long term investor (few are either of those things; even fewer are both). And not only @icg_mode I've never met anyone who can perfectly time a bottom. Waste of time and trying to protect against single stock drawdowns I'm pretty confident is alpha detracting for an emotionally tolerant + long term investor (few are either of those things; even fewer are both). And not only"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"A lot of "but AI will do it better takes" seem to not even understand that the issuer is the one who pays for the rating. And the value is the standardization institutional history regulatory requirements that give the ratings their currency values which is why credit investors demand it. If you want a good laugh - ask a fixed income pm at a pension fund what he thinks about buying Grok rated bonds"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"😱 Can we get a health and welfare check on @P_Remarks for anyone how knows him irl Is AI going to do nurse staffing too $AMN Is AI going to do nurse staffing too $AMN"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Hate to kick all you pros while you are down. But if the current market chaos isn't bad enough on your psyche you should know the $ORR etf is up 13% YTD"
X Link 2026-02-12T22:48Z [----] followers, 51.9K engagements

"Its particularly striking bc it is said with so much confidence yet I am extremely confident it is exactly wrong. Bizarre"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@bucketshopcap People are just panicking bc of the vol and are desperate to look leading edge and smart. Same group were short semis on tariff fears last year"
X Link 2026-02-14T18:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@rubicon59 Why should app exist long term If meta decides they want this market bc it is as lucrative as you think why wouldnt they be able to do every single aspect of it better and cheaper"
X Link 2026-02-14T21:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@rubicon59 Not just on ad inventory side but if they thought the mobile gaming opportunity was big enough they could very easy vibe code mobile games and probably decimate the entire gaming industry overnight as well"
X Link 2026-02-14T21:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The more they talk too the more they reveal their inherent delusions. First Altman now Dario"
X Link 2026-02-14T23:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Is Burry really putting behind a paywall complex analysis showing you SBC has a cost More striking is that he appears to think he is saying something novel while proclaiming no one wants to discuss it Lmao thats all we are talking about these days Tragic Algebra of SBC - we do some basic algebra and bring to light something no one wants to discuss https://t.co/lLUZYDD4bU https://t.co/DlHgbKA20x Tragic Algebra of SBC - we do some basic algebra and bring to light something no one wants to discuss https://t.co/lLUZYDD4bU https://t.co/DlHgbKA20x"
X Link 2026-02-15T17:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"A lot of people are talking about how AI is increasing their productivity and driving efficiency in their investment processes. But to me it seems like most are just ingesting more noise and I am skeptical that this is leading to higher quality or more profitable investment decisions. Meanwhile Im listening to earnings calls live thinking deeply and doing less more than ever and havent used an LLM for work in months - and feel like Ive never seen things more clearly. Maybe the research alpha isnt in the output or summary compilation of the data but in the neurological connections and"
X Link 2026-02-07T06:00Z [----] followers, 60.1K engagements

"Think about the fraud reduction potential for the rails and how valuable that is. Oh you think agentic commerce is the future Infinitely more likely that will be used for fraud and way harder to detect. Until MA/V develop insane agentic AI fraud protection models which stop it"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"This platform is basically always filled with dumb "fundamental" takes on single stocks (highly correlated to how red the chart is). but these "AI is going to disrupt credit ratings" are probably the worst I've ever seen. $MCO $SPGI"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:00Z [----] followers, 31.5K engagements

"Don't worry - you aren't wrong. He is indeed an idiot and this is just a case study / cautionary tale on the lack of signal / folly of track records when assessing manager skill"
X Link 2026-02-13T01:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Fighting off bad takes only to realize it's one schizo guy with [--] burner accounts [--] substacks and way too much free time"
X Link 2026-02-13T23:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"This place is weird man"
X Link 2026-02-13T23:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@taobanker Just meta without the rest. And if you need more tsm and ASML and log off"
X Link 2026-02-14T02:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@bucketshopcap And yet he will still underperform the Qs by 50%"
X Link 2026-02-14T03:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Saas bulls have been getting quiet and ai maxis have never been louder (or more annoying). Probably closer than we all think Judging by ASML experience the bottom is only in when only [--] professionals on here admit to owning the stock and everyone else just makes fun of you for being bad at your job. Judging by ASML experience the bottom is only in when only [--] professionals on here admit to owning the stock and everyone else just makes fun of you for being bad at your job"
X Link 2026-02-14T03:50Z [----] followers, 12.5K engagements

"@RyeNotBerben I mean all the stuff Ive been talking about like in info services. Ratings agencies and payment rails most obvious. Meta too (although more capital heavy as well now which I view as most fortifying). Lots of saas I think will prove to be like this but I dont have any exposure"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@bucketshopcap Omg did you hear Darios latest podcast Updating all of my priors immediately boomer pms are cooked. Lmao"
X Link 2026-02-14T18:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Much of the market and fintwit at the moment. @bucketshopcap People are just panicking bc of the vol and are desperate to look leading edge and smart. Same group were short semis on tariff fears last year. @bucketshopcap People are just panicking bc of the vol and are desperate to look leading edge and smart. Same group were short semis on tariff fears last year"
X Link 2026-02-14T18:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I think in many areas where there is a real data driven tech moat the value will accrue to the incumbents (like tsm). But surely there are plenty of things that can be solved through industrial brute force open source data crunching with ai (or if nothing else makes buy vs build math different for customers). I dont have any examples off the top of my head but I think some things will emerge here. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022772492973097289 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022772492973097289"
X Link 2026-02-14T20:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@JigsawCap Depends ofc but some areas I think data becomes moat entrenching. Tsm easiest example to think of here (barriers to entry lowered but not enough to offset benefits they will accrue to scaled leaders from same tech)"
X Link 2026-02-14T21:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@JigsawCap I think meta is also like this - becomes basically impossible to compete now with algo and data flywheel"
X Link 2026-02-14T21:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@skooookum @buccocapital lol accounting We already have accounting software everything else is people stuff and judgment calls"
X Link 2026-02-14T22:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@ggpcap @losaturnalia His views on agi dont really make sense imo but what do I know"
X Link 2026-02-14T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Midnight_Captl @sama @OpenAI Just seems hard to think they can stay independent forever"
X Link 2026-02-15T00:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Midnight_Captl @sama @OpenAI No its not its the same thing. And its still unclear how well it will be monetized by anyone ex meta. Just saying that if anyone will make money from it it should be the hyperscalers"
X Link 2026-02-15T00:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Midnight_Captl @undrvalue @sama @OpenAI Its my take and think its a serious one. But again its a comment about the ai maxi view more than anything not saying these arent useful tools. Think the ai labs arent sustainable businesses in their current form"
X Link 2026-02-15T01:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@rev_cap @RAMCOCAPITAL Extremely these businesses have unparalleled LT growth algo and pricing power"
X Link 2026-02-15T02:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Who is the audience for this content"
X Link 2026-02-15T17:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

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