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@dampedspring Avatar @dampedspring Andy Constan

Andy Constan, a 61-year-old contributor to Twitter, has returned to the platform after a two-week break, reintroducing himself and expressing his enthusiasm for sharing his insights. He has been discussing his views on certain companies, including $MSTR and $DATS, criticizing their business models and suggesting they may be using "desperate leveraging up and shady income generation strategies" to maintain their value. Constan has also been sharing his perspectives on accounting, finance, and market trends.

Engagements: XXXXXXX #

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Mentions: XX #

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Followers: XXXXXXX #

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CreatorRank: XXXXXX #

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Social Influence #

Social category influence finance #997 stocks XXXX% cryptocurrencies #746 technology brands XXXX% countries XXX% travel destinations XXX% social networks XXX% currencies #2467 exchanges XXXX%

Social topic influence fed #23, debt #183, $mtplf #26, stocks #2660, tahiti #42, $ionq #101, $smlr #14, all the 0.2%, has been #2120, china XXXX%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @bobeunlimited @dannydayan5 @lynaldencontact @derivativesdon @secscottbessent @fejauinc @blacklioncta @lukegromen @realjimchanos @themattseaton @santiagoaufund @aahanprometheus @txmctrades @agnostoxxx @bennpeifert @77augustwest72 @tim677183515439 @stevemiran @hindsight2020is @nickgiva1

Top assets mentioned Metaplanet Inc. (MTPLF) IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR) Strategy (MSTR) Hyperliquid (HYPE) JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

Top Social Posts #

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"Which is it"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-10T15:17Z 176.3K followers, 38K engagements

"It's never happened to me and it's never happened at any institutional prime brokerage I have used at my hedge funds. BUT institutions don't auto liquidate. So it's irrelevant. What has often happened is pricing anomaly raises a flag which then is followed up on via client/broker communications to resolve. I can almost guarantee that in this day and age retail brokerage accounts have been auto liquidated because of this anomaly occuring. I have no specific knowledge of it. But every robot fucks up with an unexpected outcome before it's corrected so the odds are very high that is has occurred"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-12T11:52Z 176.2K followers, XXX engagements

"@wldmandan Awesome. I'm fascinated and frustrated by the "just trade price" comment which I must say I've gotten 1000+ times here and I'm 0/1000 on getting anyone to even try to explain. Except by them posting anecdotes and squiggly lines"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-12T15:12Z 176.2K followers, XXX engagements

"@n_eutrin_o That heads toward slowdown or recession unless policymakers print and then tahiti bound"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-13T16:42Z 176.3K followers, 1150 engagements

"What is happening as we speak is the buyer of this package is liquidating its long share and setting up a short delta for the warrants to lock in the $XX dollars handed to them. They will then be selling vol in the listed and OTC market to hedge the Vega of the warrants $ionq"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-10T14:32Z 176.2K followers, 44.1K engagements

"@hkuedu2 How could saying I don't know anything be wrong. And if so how would you know😅"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-12T21:35Z 176.2K followers, XXX engagements

"On the bull side of trash DATs I love $SMLR vs every other liquid dat and IBIT itself"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-09-25T14:54Z 176.3K followers, 11.2K engagements

"@SecScottBessent just correctly said that the 2025 Fiscal deficit was lower than 2024. It was by $8BN. Deficit to GDP fell to XXX% from 6.26%. Two questions X. For the nothing stops this train fiscal dominance crowd has the train stopped It clearly has in fact. X. XXX% is a long way from XXX target. Why have we not heard about that Are we drilling baby Is a X% deficit to GDP even possible How about a X% real gdp"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T12:46Z 176.3K followers, 2198 engagements

"It's great to see $IONQ up on its achievements in its business but it is pretty odd that they sold 2BN of equity for XX that was worth XXX then to a single investor despite likely knowing the "good news". The single investor is up XXXX% since the deal while the rest of the shareholders are up 12%. Pretty fish"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-13T17:59Z 176.2K followers, 62.7K engagements

"When does one buy this $HYPD that everyone was Hyping at XX Figure XXX ish. By then all the suckers will be liquidated. The longs need to buy their GI Joe with the kungfu grip. You can hear them panicking"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-13T14:12Z 176.3K followers, 29.9K engagements

"Target inflation which shows literally zero signs of returning to target in the coming year or even two. The Fed is responsible for the original sin of choosing runoff over outright assets sales. But the treasury even to this day is the one responsible for the monetary impact"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.3K followers, 4247 engagements

"@AahanPrometheus Just precious metals tho"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-13T14:32Z 176.2K followers, XXX engagements

"As I scroll Twitter the bulls and bears have never been more strident and outspoken this year than they are this weekend. Even liberation week seems list strident. How about we all STFU and step back. I have limited or no insight this morning. Here's one point I will make because it's always true No one knows shit. Ignore me and everyone else and manage your risk. You may believe your risk target is XX% XX% or XX% annual standard deviation but you are lying to yourself and will capitulate at the worst possible time. If you hold a risk level like that and get that risk via leverage even if you"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-12T11:03Z 176.3K followers, 37.6K engagements

"Continues to) tell us that the government debt is responsibly extending when The Fed's ridiculous reinvestment plan is the entire reason for the extension. So the treasury department is desperately afraid of the Fed changing its reinvestment policy because it will make the grift"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.3K followers, 3003 engagements

"Fwiw on $JPM announcement today I would call this a marketing currying favor and setting the internal lending preferences for the corporate bankers ploy. The equity financing is 10BN over XX years or 1BN per year. Needless to say that's literally nothing. As to the 1.5TN of lending it should be mentioned that JPM did 1.8TN of things that would qualify in this category just last year. I imagine but haven't dug into it that of the 1.8TN done last year at least 150BN was in categories like the one he made today's commitment to. So pretty much any projection of existing book of business would"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-13T21:05Z 176.3K followers, 49.8K engagements

"@coryklippsten I think they all are fine and dandy. I think the prices can get too high and too low For instance ANY DAT over XXX MNAV is a short and MSTR is still a short (but not as good as it was when I pounded the table) at XXXX I happen to like $SMLR at .9 MNAV quite a lot"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-09T19:33Z 176.2K followers, XXX engagements

"@CFA_Life Yes. I tweeted what a legendary credit trader is saying so other professionals can see it. I didn't tweet it for retail"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-11T17:52Z 176.1K followers, XXX engagements

"Today $IONQ did a disgustingly bad new deal for its existing shareholders selling a package of things worth XXX for XX. The investor paid XX per share and got X Share of stock and XXX X year warrants to buy stock struck at XXX That package of things doesnt trade in the public market but using Jan XX XXX calls as a proxy for the Warrant balancing the proxy lower strike with a XXX year shorter maturity prices the deal which was sold at XX at XXX. In other words on the 21.5MN shares sold the company gave the new special investor 946MN of value"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-10T14:05Z 176.2K followers, 190.6K engagements

"A return to the Islands Most narratives lean on heading to T.A.H.I.T.I. (The references is from MCU series Agents of Shield. "It's a magical place) Tahiti is the island we go to if the run it hot narrative is correct. Debasement Cove is the destination if the yield curve is manipulated Run it Hot Point is the destination if the bond market is allowed to sell off. Gold and BTC are money on one side of Tahiti and USD on the other side. The next client Dampedspring report will detail the "Narrative Islands""
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-13T16:38Z 176.3K followers, 64.5K engagements

"@Marco_mmabjj Im focused on actual order flow not market maker games. Also not spoofing but actually trading against one's desired direction"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-13T20:38Z 176.3K followers, 6544 engagements

"Aggressively increase coupon auction sizes immediately. The interest rate on the coupon suite of issuance is below 4%. Lock in term out and chill My greatest fear is in a crisis we can't use the bills market when we need to. Even if it pushed curve 50bp steeper (it wont) that's like XXX multiples points or XX% stock decline. MBS probably don't even move much and spreads just contract"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T10:38Z 176.3K followers, 1241 engagements

"@TheBostonView And you expect tariffs to be declared illegal and that will be bullish"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-12T22:26Z 176.2K followers, 3574 engagements

"For anyone who had significant experience at major institutions including hedge funds and asset managers. Have you ever had a buy order of impactful size that you decided to crazy Ivan and sell some to confuse market participants Resulting in having to buy what you wanted originally plus your crazy Ivan sale"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-13T20:32Z 176.3K followers, 146K engagements

"Metaplanet has arrived at ETF status. My work on this POS is done $MTPLF"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-10T11:03Z 176.3K followers, 25.7K engagements

"@michaelgmcquaid So you must be a big supporter of casinos in every neighborhood sport betting polymarket etc because you believe that providing more opportunity to gamble is additive to society"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-12T13:56Z 176.2K followers, XXX engagements

"The full report from 7/28/2024 is here"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.3K followers, 3471 engagements

"The Fed bears only partial responsibility to the muting of QT. QT impact is two fold reducing reserves HAS occurred. Though not much and mostly just reduced pseudo reserves in the form or RRP reduction to zero. BUT by far the biggest impact of QT is the forcing of the private"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.3K followers, 5856 engagements

"Met Howard once in person. Talked a half dozen times. He was the Salomon Convert desk's biggest client. Absolute genius on long only credit investing. I'd still take Kieran Kenny G Geoff Raynor/Tommy Taylor combo Paul Singer and Boaz over Howard in a gun fight every single day in terms of people ive met Dan Fuss Warren Buffett Andy Redleaf Andrew Feldstein and Eric Mindich probably round out my top ten (have personally met GOAT Credit traders)"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-12T10:32Z 176.2K followers, XXX engagements

"The debasement trade is bullish all financial assets but particularly bullish stocks and gold. It's also bearish whichever currency is the strongest debaser. Fwiw the best metric of the debasement trade is something like equal dollars U.S. TIPS Stocks and Gold denominated in EUR or JPY"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-14T19:32Z 176.3K followers, 6823 engagements

"$MSTR MNAV new lows XXXX $MTPLF MNAV new lows XXXX When these hit XXX the whole BTC DAT flywheel is permanently over. The weekend pump fest didn't work. What are you all gonna try next"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-08T15:01Z 176.2K followers, 43.5K engagements

"We can disagree with the "value paid for the package". I used a fairly conservative value which didn't include Greeks at all. Just prices as proxy for what actually trade. My question is what value to ascribe to the deal. Was it fairly priced for the issuer and the buyer. If so no harm done. It was done with a single buyer and not offered publicly AND it appears very favorable to the buyer. As it appears very favorable to the buyer it probably is unfavorable to the seller. What would you a bull pay for a X year call struck at XXX if it was offered to you"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-10T17:11Z 176.1K followers, XXX engagements

"Tape bomb incoming"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-13T19:02Z 176.3K followers, 44.1K engagements

"@DeepDishEnjoyer Briefly saw stir and bonds rallying. But with leveraged etf buying into he close it was unlikely"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-13T19:46Z 176.2K followers, 1940 engagements

"@BobEUnlimited When swap spreads react. Or stocks and corporate credit get crushed but probably just swap spreads"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-12T13:33Z 176.3K followers, 7659 engagements

"Ugh. Typo $HYPE when meant $HYPD. Now I understand the hate. My bad"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-13T14:25Z 176.3K followers, 14.9K engagements

"@Citrini7 What I understand is NO COUNTRY wants to extract and refine rare earths because they are devastating to the countries more valuable resources particularly water and fertile land. The constraint is NIMBY and nothing more. BUT that's a huge constraint"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-11T18:06Z 176.2K followers, 10.9K engagements

"@DerivativesDon"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-10T22:25Z 176.2K followers, 5862 engagements

"@TheBTCTherapist He should have not pumped MNAV and instead used his significant prescience to encourage folks to buy the coin and offer shares of his company at a fair price instead of What he did"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-14T14:08Z 176.2K followers, 1001 engagements

"@coryklippsten Can you show me similar "marketing docs" from legitimate companies DATS and MSTR in particular are blazing new trails deep deep in a forest that no legitimate company even explores. BECAUSE they have to. To pump issuance which is their life blood"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-09T19:00Z 176.2K followers, XXX engagements

"Janet Yellen is long gone. Jay Powell says talking about the balance sheet is worse than going to the dentist. OF COURSE it Is. Truth is painful. He and @scottbessent701 are likely to agree to NOT change the reinvestment plan continuing the grift"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.3K followers, 2869 engagements

"It is a reference from marvel comic universe show "Agents of Shield" every time the main character heard the word Tahiti he was programmed to say "It's a magical place". Which seems fitting for my purposes. It was an acronym of Terrestrialized Alien Host Intergrative Tissue #1"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-13T20:15Z 176.3K followers, XXX engagements

"Visible to all. It "should" be visible to all already but somehow no one seems to care. Here's the big deal. IF the Fed finally stops enabling the treasury grift by stopping buying coupons greater than X year the treasury will HAVE to sell those bonds not bought be the Fed"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.3K followers, 3087 engagements

"But it's a lie. Because the Fed has bought long dated treasuries the private sector didn't have to. The blue line represents the private sector owned WAM which shows that the private sector hold very little WAM relative to what's been issued"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.2K followers, 3186 engagements

"This is well worth reading and Alex is a must follow"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-14T13:35Z 176.3K followers, 91.1K engagements

"A more personal apology to my broad readers and some well known accounts The last X months I have sucked. These guys who all sell their research (just like me) have crushed it over the last X months and deserve your follow and perhaps subscription dollars. Besides getting the trade right they also provide excellent actionable research and even more importantly top notch educational content. I have had direct adversarial relationships with X of them for which I apologize. The last seems to really dislike me but I was unaware of his excellent game until I took this break. Good show. I hope we"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-07T22:15Z 176.3K followers, 132.2K engagements

"@l1quid1ty Jesse Livermore vibes this weekend"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-11T21:27Z 176.2K followers, XXX engagements

"I love markets. $MTPLF"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-14T09:43Z 176.2K followers, 47K engagements

"Do 🌮 hit the same at 6550 as they do at 5000"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-12T21:16Z 176.3K followers, 27.9K engagements

"@DougCli13776839 Those are down too"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T14:30Z 176.3K followers, 1491 engagements

"@r33nd3r .92MNAV. Standalone. Being acquired at a price based on current value of 21.05*2.1=44.205 which is a 44.205/28.36-1=55.9% premium to last sale"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-08T10:04Z 176.2K followers, XXX engagements

"I just listened to a YouTube where someone claimed that the U.S. can demand payment of what is now 2TN of debt owed by the prior government of China from world war X. Made me laugh. The PRC doesn't acknowledge the debt and will NEVER pay it back"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-13T12:59Z 176.2K followers, 14.7K engagements

"@Dr_Twatter Don't comment on positioning here any more"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T19:23Z 176.3K followers, XX engagements

"@Justheretolear7 Really the treasury. But enabled by the Fed"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T02:22Z 176.3K followers, XXX engagements

"Hey I'm back. Been on self imposed break for two weeks. Let me reintroduce myself I'm Andy Constan and I'm XX years old and have done some stuff and seen some things I love contributing to Twitter and look forward to contributing again I have a naive ideal that Twitter is the public square where people can discuss their ideas and help each other find truth. I left when I realized I was not living up to my own ideal and getting dragged down into the muck. I didnt like who I had become. I was treating others from major content contributors to innocents with less respect than they deserve and"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-07T22:00Z 176.3K followers, 311.8K engagements

"To the private sector. That would mean a substantial increase in auction sizes of coupon treasuries. Fwiw those auction sizes need to go up a lot anyway and so because we increase debt 2TN per year but this reinvestment policy shift would significantly compound the issue"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.3K followers, 2900 engagements

"Scott Bessent continues to control the monetary impact of quantitative tightening as we speak. The impact has been hugely beneficial to asset holders (the wealthiest amongst us) and has come at the expenses of this without assets who have lived with almost X years of above"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.3K followers, 4521 engagements

"We all know this is true as buried in the linked reports we know that private sector coupon auctions have remained fixed and beginning the moment QT started Janet issued half of all private sector purchased debt in bills. She could and did (and the current treasury secretary"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.2K followers, 3120 engagements

"If a DAT trades at MNAV and doesn't want to lever or can't why should it build its stack The BTC per share doesn't change so what's the incentive"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-14T21:09Z 176.3K followers, 13K engagements

"Not only that I had made concrete recommendations for the Fed to seize control of monetary policy as far back as XX months ago"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.3K followers, 3792 engagements

"Fwiw the fucking dentist joke by Powell today was just too much. XX% of the FOMC and the chair either doesn't understand monetary policy or simply is too afraid of the bond market. Instead they avoid the pain of understanding. Or intentionally grift"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T02:25Z 176.3K followers, 13.4K engagements

"Bessent and Miran are even better at this than Jay and Janet and their incentives are NOT to detox the markets"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.3K followers, 15.3K engagements

"This is my favorite sort of tweet"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-14T18:13Z 176.3K followers, 66.5K engagements

"Like most days the last X months the winds are blowing to debasement cove. Added the AI miracle pays off soon yellow star to this chart. The DSR on what to do about this is a banger and will be released to clients later today"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T10:44Z 176.3K followers, 31.3K engagements

"Kieran is possibly the best PM on credit I have ever met. Not a punter or big short guy just great all the time. Worth understanding this post"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-11T09:46Z 176.2K followers, 80.8K engagements

"@jasongrig @BobEUnlimited Just following equities"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-12T20:59Z 176.2K followers, XXX engagements

"The big deal though is the Fed simply enabled the ongoing monetary policy by the treasury with its reinvestment policy. How you may ask Every quarter the treasury show us the ongoing grift"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.3K followers, 3531 engagements

"@michaelgmcquaid Just a terrible take. There is no reason whatsoever that stocks need to trade on weekends based on the needs of issuers and XXXXX% of investors. Sorry my friend. On this we don't agree. I love my weekends. Frankly would be happier with shorter X day trading hours"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-12T13:38Z 176.1K followers, 2807 engagements

"When does one buy this $HYPE that everyone was Hyping at XX Figure XXX ish. By then all the suckers will be liquidated. The longs need to buy their GI Joe with the kungfu grip. You can hear them panicking"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-13T13:47Z 176.3K followers, 21K engagements

"This chart is probably the best measure of true stress in the financial underpinnings of the market. Liberation day caused a massive problem in the bond market. Bessent knew it as did any bond investor or macro investor and Taco relieved the pressure. Since the the drama is gone"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-10T23:25Z 176.2K followers, 2875 engagements

"@wldmandan I would posit that future prices are almost certain to fall within future price expected distribution with the probability implied in that distribution centered around spot"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-12T15:36Z 176.2K followers, XXX engagements

"Hey @daveweisberger1 I'm trying to apologize to those I have wronged but this tweet you made borders on slander so I have to address it. You tell a tale of billion dollar loses taken during the GFC under my leadership at Citi Equities. You must be thinking about someone else as I left Citi in 2003"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-08T12:54Z 176.1K followers, 47.2K engagements

"@jimdelisle Meh. 12BN doesn't matter. It could be XX or zero and not be a signal"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-13T13:04Z 176.2K followers, XXX engagements

"@moreproteinbars @0xMerridew 💯. Tried retiring multiple times. Didn't take. DO NOT RETIRE early"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-12T16:08Z 176.2K followers, 1045 engagements

"Still hate all DAT companies trading above MNAV. They will attempt desperate leveraging up and shady "income generation" strategies to maintain their "flywheel". But to no avail. They are at best leveraged ETF's and at worse MNAV premium ponzi's Really sorta like $SMLR tho"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-08T09:53Z 176.3K followers, 12.2K engagements

"The fed is also responsible for its reinvestment policy which as the OP (and many of my reports shows has resulted in long term treasuries accumulating by 200BN when we have been told the balance sheet has been shrinking. We haven't been lied to. This was obvious X years ago"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.2K followers, 4052 engagements

"I am XX years old already likely on the spectrum past my child bearing years. Can I take Tylenol I have a sinus headache"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-08T14:44Z 176.2K followers, 31.2K engagements

"@77AugustWest72 Cutting 25bp is already 💯 certain. What else"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-12T21:26Z 176.2K followers, XXX engagements

"Depends what your purpose is. I call the cohort you're referring to "market participants". Market makers are market participants. But they have a specific role which is distinctly different than other cohorts in that they are indifferent to long or short market risk and earn money from charging to be temporary liquidity providers for others to change their risk preferences. This is NOT controversial. They are extremely important and necessary to the markets and market functions and for that matter capital formation for companies and the economy. Deeper more liquid markets are good for"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-12T23:40Z 176.2K followers, XXX engagements

"@lebas_janney @salr_nyc I think he is bullish BTC"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-14T20:03Z 176.3K followers, XXX engagements

"@sanskarimata Not commenting on positioning anymore. These are the open minded versions of the major narratives I see"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-13T20:04Z 176.3K followers, XXX engagements

"Bessent forced 🌮 and for really good reasons. Equities were not the cause of the taco in April and swap spreads are just fine"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-10T23:20Z 176.2K followers, 44.8K engagements

"@TheBostonView Fair enough. If today the Supreme Court ruled tariffs illegal and existing tariffs would have some remedy but must be paid back. Is it bullish or bearish"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-13T16:41Z 176.3K followers, XXX engagements

"@hkuedu2 I see. Yes illegal and legal ( because they don't write laws to prevent) insider trading is a reliable edge"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-13T01:07Z 176.2K followers, XXX engagements

"This chart Should not be new to anyone that has my work since 2022. @SteveMiran used and credited my work to write his paper on ATI which probably helped him get the Fed Governor Gig😅.I have presented my work to many Fed staffers and senior treasury officials many times. BUT 🧵"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.3K followers, 127.2K engagements

"This comparison (like the one comparing p/e) will one day be evidence in a fraud trial. Comparing $MSFT USD treasury holdings which represents XXX% of its assets to $MSTR BTC "Treasury" which is XXX% of its assets is deceptive and designed to pump the stock. A court will one day rule on it as fraudulent"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-09T13:47Z 176.2K followers, 38.1K engagements

"Nah. It's bigger than that presumably the MBS runoff cap would go from 35BN (not hit once) to zero which means MBS keep running off but 20-25BN bills get reinvestment Net 5BN of UST and 20BN of MBS go to zero. It's still not a big deal even my most conservative end was 2Q 2026"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-14T21:05Z 176.2K followers, 1522 engagements

"@PolyluminaMed The most crowded take on the planet is to own gold precious metals and miners. Yep I own XX% allocation to my long assets in gold but couldn't hate the company I keep as of today more. Newbies and speculators galore"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-12T13:29Z 176.2K followers, XXX engagements

"@DerekDS22 @LukeGromen @Econimica No this chart is perfectly accurate The XX year line is straight from. The Fed. The less than X year line needs a calc but looks right. It's also irrelevant. The XX year line is the important one"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T02:20Z 176.3K followers, XXX engagements

"Why do I ever buy puts. Jeez"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T14:27Z 176.3K followers, 74.1K engagements

"@hamiltonfrenman @michaelgmcquaid A market maker is a market neutral market participant with no bias to be long or short"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-12T23:26Z 176.2K followers, 1547 engagements

"@RPOA99 @SecScottBessent Government spending is decreasing year over year. It's the change not the level that says whether the train is moving"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T14:29Z 176.3K followers, XXX engagements

"We are in a cash is trash narrative where bonds gold and stocks are all outperforming cash by a little to an historic amount (54% rally in gold). In order for this to continue broadly inflation expectations can't rise or if they do must be ignored"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-09T11:04Z 176.1K followers, 29.3K engagements

"One of the more interesting developments in the world of deals that make you go Hmmm was $AMD Open AI Open AI is "committing" to buy roughly 100BN of chips from AMD which sounds pretty pretty good for AMD. BUT the price is hard to figure The reason is every time Open AI buys a tranche of chips they are awarded free some warrants with an essentially zero strike which become worth something if the stock hits a threshold price. If the threshold price is never hit before expiry the value of the warrants is zero and AMD sold the chips at full "retail" price. OTOH if the threshold price is hit and"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-08T10:24Z 176.3K followers, 53.4K engagements

"Anyone have a story on swap spreads My intuition is it's related to JPY weakness but haven't dug in"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-08T11:31Z 176.3K followers, 51.9K engagements

"It's occurred in the bright light of weekly data. I had many conversations with fed staff about this. My DSRs are sent to the fed by request. I had great hope after the January Fed minutes that they would act and at least correct the reinvestment program. See the whole impact here"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.3K followers, 4047 engagements

"@Chartfest1 Fwiw the amount of folks who own gold is way higher than I expected and almost certainly a lie"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-09T21:54Z 176.2K followers, 2851 engagements

"@sasachk Why have staff AI replaces options trading desks no"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-08T10:55Z 176.1K followers, 1186 engagements

"$MTPLF 1.09"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-09T12:36Z 176.2K followers, 14K engagements

"@AahanPrometheus My most basic merton (the only one I show publicly) has CDX HY about 20bp wide (HYGH cheap) to a short Deep OTM equity put position. Credit has been broadly cheap for a few years fwiw"
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-11T20:30Z 176.1K followers, XXX engagements

"Notice the ironically gold colored line. It shows that the treasury weighted average maturity of its total debt is at a fairly long level. Implying that the treasury has done a good job "terming out the debt""
X Link @dampedspring 2025-10-15T02:04Z 176.3K followers, 3234 engagements