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@cvx_bets Avatar @cvx_bets Convex Bets

Convex Bets posts on X about $algn, $vmc, $knf, $stmn the most. They currently have XX followers and XX posts still getting attention that total XX engagements in the last XX hours.

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Social category influence stocks XX% finance XXXXX% countries XXXXX% cryptocurrencies XXXXX%

Social topic influence $algn #7, $vmc #2, $knf #2, $stmn 13.33%, $aca 13.33%, $mlm #6, $vntr 6.67%, $20m 6.67%, $18m 6.67%, $exp XXXX%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @joinyellowbrick @invest091 @thelapurchaser @failcascade @pernasresearch @alexdragut @threemileres @drginvests @wisdomowl @fiercebeast @kafkii

Top assets mentioned Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) Knife River Corporation (KNF) Acala Token (ACA) Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) Eagle Materials, Inc. (EXP)

Top Social Posts #

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"$ALGN will likely guide down Q425 estimates leading to downward revisions to FY26 consensus. The company currently expects X% y/y revenue growth in Q4 compared to X% in Q225 while consensus forecasts +4% for FY26. These targets appear difficult to achieve given the discretionary nature of ALGNs products weakening consumer demand and intensifying competition. Chinese competitor Angel Aligner offers a product of comparable quality while costing 2035% less for the end consumer. Elevated DSOs together with softer deferred revenue and RPO further indicate slowing momentum. Business Model $ALGN"
X Link @cvx_bets 2025-10-27T16:26Z XX followers, XXX engagements

"Q325 Straumann Group (SWX: $STMN) $ALGN Read-Through (reports after the market close today): - The read-through is slightly positive for the $ALGN short thesis. - North America remains volatile with cautious out-of-pocket spend and management expects consumption and patient demand to stay broadly stable over the next two quarters. EMEA remains challenging and APAC is doing well although they did not specifically call out orthodontics in that regional discussion. - Dentists are still cautious on capital expenditures. $ALGN noted that its Q4 guidance partly relies on incremental system sales"
X Link @cvx_bets 2025-10-29T13:22Z XX followers, XXX engagements

"@TheLAPurchaser $ALGN seems like a short to me. Q4 and FY26 still too aggressive. Increased competition on scanners. Consumer is weakening. Clinics are not very happy with them as they abused their position"
X Link @cvx_bets 2025-10-27T16:30Z XX followers, XX engagements

"@failcascade I think $ALGN will only go lower from here especially given weaker consumer demand rising competition and unfriendly customer practices"
X Link @cvx_bets 2025-10-27T16:46Z XX followers, XX engagements

"@joinyellowbrick @pernasresearch @alex_dragut @ThreeMileRes @DRGinvests Just posted a short on $ALGN. Would appreciate it if you add it as well"
X Link @cvx_bets 2025-10-27T16:52Z XX followers, XXX engagements

"Remember when I started out I read Margin of Safety and bought $VNTR. It looked cheap traded below book and produced cash. I thought it couldnt go lower. Guess what it kept falling. The stock is now a zero. Seems I had a short-selling instinct early on 😅"
X Link @cvx_bets 2025-10-29T20:00Z XX followers, XX engagements

"$ALGN Q325: I Was Wrong Exiting for Now Thoughts I was wrong on the quarter. $ALGN beat revenue by $20m and aOI by $18m with Q4 revenue and aOI margin reaffirmed. Clear Aligner volumes were much stronger than I expected: shipments grew X% y/y versus X% y/y last quarter. Constant-currency revenue growth was X% (vs -X% last quarter and +1% the quarter before). I estimate about X% growth from the UK VAT change. Underlying the business is still declining. The drag is a mix shift to lower-ASP countries and a continued slide in Systems & Services (-2% y/y CC vs +5% last quarter and +4% the quarter"
X Link @cvx_bets 2025-10-30T12:04Z XX followers, XXX engagements

"$EXP and $VMC results look fairly neutral for $ACA. Revenue was in line and guidance reaffirmed. $EXP reported slightly lower aEBITDA while $VMC lowered its aEBITDA guidance despite the beat. Public construction activity remains strong while residential construction is still weak. Aggregates and cement volumes are growing"
X Link @cvx_bets 2025-10-30T14:09Z XX followers, XX engagements

"I think most analysts never actually track their calls or review them honestly. Theres too much focus on the few instances that went right and complete avoidance of the ones that were wrong. Mental accounting never works. Analysts should maintain scorecards comparing their views to what actually happened the stocks move and ideally its performance versus the index and industry"
X Link @cvx_bets 2025-10-30T19:43Z XX followers, XXX engagements

"Bear points - Aggressive 2H guide: Construction targets high-single-digit organic growth after three negative quarters. - Outsized step-up required: From X% in Q2 to +8.5% in 2H = +12.5% improvement in the YoY growth rate; peers point to +510% ($MLM X% $VMC X% $KNF 10%)"
X Link @cvx_bets 2025-09-27T15:18Z XX followers, XX engagements

"Valuation ACA trades at 2.1x Sales 10.5x aEBITDA 25x P/FCF (FY25e) broadly in line with 3-yr averages. Mix complicates pure-play comps; apparent discount vs $VMC/$MLM reflects smaller reserves. Reserve base closer to $KNF (11x aEBITDA). Looks fair"
X Link @cvx_bets 2025-09-27T15:18Z XX followers, XXX engagements

"@Fierce__beast Saw youre long $KNF. Any view on their 1H performance vs peers They seem to be doing worse and are guiding for a decent step up in 2H. Also any thoughts on a sector recovery in 2H"
X Link @cvx_bets 2025-09-27T15:39Z XX followers, XX engagements

"Arcosa $ACA Q325 Update - The stock will probably be up on this but I dont think more than LSD. While it didnt play out as I hoped the risk was very limited. I still think it was a good r/r bet. - Revenue beat by $15m and aEBITDA by $7.2m. Last quarter revenue missed by $17m (aEBITDA beat $2.3m) and the prior quarter revenue beat by $17.5m (aEBITDA beat $11.3m). The beat is stronger than last quarter but not especially notable vs two quarters ago. - Guidance cuts revenue by $15m and raises aEBITDA by $10m. The full-year revenue cut implies Q4 revenue is $30m below prior expectations while Q4"
X Link @cvx_bets 2025-10-31T12:48Z XX followers, XX engagements