@burgwx Avatar @burgwx Tomer Burg

Tomer Burg posts on X about in the, snow, to the, canada the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence countries 6% travel destinations 3% fashion brands 1% currencies 1%

Social topic influence in the 16%, snow #498, to the 8%, canada 6%, strong 5%, sunday 4%, atlantic coast 4%, the north 4%, flow 3%, thread 3%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @ericfisher @nynjpaweather @mark_glatfelter @mdawg41116321 @sssdsol @nysmesonet @wxbrad @nbergwx @cameronjnixon @ametsoc @nickpbassill @windbornewx @sluofficial @maxvelocitywx @playssaheb @heatwavekgns @codysnell @weathermanv @wxriskgrains @thommyguy

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"What sets the stage for this storm Several ingredients will be key for driving this major storm: [--]. Antecedent TPV over southeast Canada sets up a supercharged baroclinic zone over the eastern US [--]. SW US trough axis aids to transport tropical moisture poleward overrunning this baroclinic zone with strong isentropic ascent leading to a broad swath of heavy precipitation [--]. Strong high pressure leads to low-level cold air advection undercutting warm air advection aloft leading to a major icing risk"
X Link 2026-01-19T20:31Z 53.4K followers, [----] engagements

"🚨Caution with snow:liquid ratios🚨 Charlotte NC recorded 11" of snow with the ASOS gauge recording 0.51" of liquid-equivalent precipitation. This would suggest a snow:liquid ratio of 21:1 averaged throughout the event. .but there's more to this story. Rain gauges can under measure precipitation when snow falls in windy conditions and when snow crystals have relatively lower density (like dendrites observed yesterday) which is called undercatch. Take the Charlotte obs below - during some of the peak snow rates the gauge only measured 0.02" liquid-equivalent precipitation per hour. This is"
X Link 2026-02-01T18:27Z 53.5K followers, 15.6K engagements

"This isnt your typical view of the Hudson River across from Manhattan widespread ice coverage across the river this morning. With wind gusts reaching 45-55 mph tomorrow from the northwest and given the already extensive ice coverage Id imagine there is a risk of an ice push in Hudson waterfront in Manhattan tomorrow & Sunday. These are more common in the Great Lakes where strong winds push ice into the shore but are much more rare in Manhattan especially in recent decades"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:17Z 53.4K followers, 23.2K engagements

"Lake Erie being almost completely frozen also means cold air masses from Canada can more easily intrude into parts of the Mid Atlantic without moderating over the warmer lake waters. Lake Ontario remains mostly open so the frigid airmass is moderated some while passing over it"
X Link 2026-02-06T23:24Z 53.4K followers, [----] engagements

"I dont have much to add for tonights minor snow event that hasnt already been said but a few minor points: even among areas of light snow rates tonight snow:liquid ratios are likely to be over 10:1 with weak ascent through a somewhat deep saturated DGZ the exact location of the inverted trough formation tomorrow is still uncertain likely somewhere in the vicinity of the RI to Boston corridor but strong low-level convergence and associated ascent should favor high snow:liquid ratios and localized snow totals over 6-10 inches"
X Link 2026-02-06T23:39Z 53.4K followers, [----] engagements

"As I analyzed in much more depth in my thread last night there are two separate near-stationary heavy snow bands this morning: [--]. Training heavy snow bands over NE Mass [--]. Inverted trough axis has come to a near stall over southern RI into far eastern CT Two separate corridors of locally heavy snow are expected to develop tomorrow somewhat independently of each other: [--]. Coastal friction enhanced snow band in eastern MA [--]. SE-NW band associated with the inverted trough https://t.co/sycPdpuJ5z Two separate corridors of locally heavy snow are expected to develop tomorrow somewhat independently"
X Link 2026-02-07T12:20Z 53.5K followers, [----] engagements

"As the cyclone offshore deepens and its associated pressure gradient increases stronger low-level NE flow will force the NE MA snow bands to gradually push to the SW inland until merging with the inverted trough axis. Heavy snow rates will overspread eastern MA & RI with the potential for thundersnow this afternoon (read last nights thread for a detailed explanation of the why)"
X Link 2026-02-07T12:24Z 53.4K followers, [----] engagements

"Given already observed heavy snow rates favorable dendritic growth profiles and slow movement of the snow bands I wouldnt rule out localized totals as high as 10-12 or even higher in southern Rhode Island"
X Link 2026-02-07T12:26Z 53.4K followers, [----] engagements

"Another neat observation this morning: the Arctic front moving east is currently merging with the stalled inverted trough leading to enhanced low-level convergence and heavier snow rates over eastern CT. Theres so many neat aspects to analyze with these mesoscale snow events"
X Link 2026-02-07T13:46Z 53.4K followers, [----] engagements

"I was trying to think of a name to describe this game but Slumber Bowl Super Field Goal Super Bored are just as lame as the game itself"
X Link 2026-02-09T02:21Z 53.4K followers, [----] engagements

"Recognizing that the discussion over AI/LLM advancements and their impact on the job market is a rather heated debate Ill try adding some thoughts as neutrally as I possibly can: The more LLMs progress in their abilities the less the question becomes can we use LLMs for this task and the more it becomes should we use LLMs for this task. To some people this is primarily an ethical consideration meaning is it ethical/moral to use AI for certain tasks or even use AI/LLM as a whole Considerations here include the resources AI/data centers use and AI companies motives for example. To other"
X Link 2026-02-11T00:41Z 53.5K followers, 26.7K engagements

"Theres [--] main key features to watch out for: #1 north stream shortwave trough will dig SE in response to ridge amplification upstream. This determines whether there is a phase messy interaction or no interaction with the southern stream trough (#2) #2 southern stream shortwave trough associated with Gulf moisture & severe weather will lead to a surface low developing intensity & location depending on its forward speed and amplitude #3 antecedent tropopause polar vortex will depart the NE US but its track and timing will determine how much antecedent cold air will linger in the region ahead of"
X Link 2026-02-11T12:03Z 53.4K followers, 12.3K engagements

"The 0z ECMWF & some ensemble members have the ideal evolution for a PA/NJ major snowstorm: trough #1 digs sharply south and phases with trough #2 leading to rapid cyclones off the Mid Atlantic coast antecedent TPV is slow enough that it leaves a sufficiently cold antecedent airmass in place trough #1 also brings down enough cold air to favor heavy snow in the cold sector of the cyclone https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021556591825182775 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021556591825182775"
X Link 2026-02-11T12:07Z 53.4K followers, [---] engagements

"12z ECMWF: aaaaand its gone Easy to see why comparing the 500mb height field: north stream trough (faster and digs less) completely misses interaction with the southern trough (slower and more south) antecedent TPV is farther north with less antecedent cold air the 6z ECMWF is in and despite showing a more amplified & north southern-stream system it also has a much warmer system with little snow outside of high elevations. Going back to my earlier analysis to understand why: - trough #1 (north stream) is less amplified but still https://t.co/lhFr9c70Wd the 6z ECMWF is in and despite showing a"
X Link 2026-02-11T19:13Z 53.4K followers, 12K engagements

"Next up is the north stream trough (trough #2) - this will be key in whether rapid deepening occurs or not. And as I'll show below it really would only take a small adjustment from what models currently show to lead to a major snowstorm. As I previously noted current models keep this trough north and detached from the southern trough (#1). But what happens if there's just slightly more upstream ridge amplification that leads to it digging a bit more than currently forecast Compare the 6z vs. 12z runs of the AIFS - on the left we see that slightly increased southern push of trough #2. On the"
X Link 2026-02-12T22:54Z 53.4K followers, [----] engagements

"We can actually trace this sensitivity back as early as tomorrow morning (12 UTC) - lower heights over the northern Rockies vs. currently modeled will be associated with a greater likelihood of a rapidly deepening low off the Mid Atlantic coast and a potential major snowstorm. This area will be important to monitor over the next day. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022083145286222191 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022083145286222191"
X Link 2026-02-12T22:59Z 53.4K followers, [----] engagements

"Going back to this topic for a bit - I will acknowledge I have used LLMs increasingly in my workflows. But there are some areas I won't substitute LLMs into - one of them is my writing which is purely in my own words. LLMs wrote 0% of this post below. Recognizing that the discussion over AI/LLM advancements and their impact on the job market is a rather heated debate Ill try adding some thoughts as neutrally as I possibly can: The more LLMs progress in their abilities the less the question becomes can we use LLMs for this Recognizing that the discussion over AI/LLM advancements and their"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:41Z 53.4K followers, [----] engagements

"@ericfisher I'm sorry as an AI language model I do not have a sense of humor"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:45Z 53.4K followers, [---] engagements

"Friday 2/13 update: 🧵 There's no major change today except that probabilities of a major (6" snowstorm) have decreased some but not down to zero. Many of the same forecast challenges still remain from yesterday though the range has slightly narrowed some. Meteorology explainer thread 🧵 Even though models no longer show a major snowstorm for Sun-Mon ensembles show a different story - while most ensemble members don't show snow out of those that do have snow most of those members show a major snowstorm. This is what we call https://t.co/LCj6xvuruG Meteorology explainer thread 🧵 Even though"
X Link 2026-02-13T23:57Z 53.5K followers, 11.7K engagements

"First recall from yesterday's ensemble sensitivity analysis that lower heights in the northern Rockies (i.e. the opposite of the left map) this morning are associated with a more amplified northern stream trough & more rapidly deepening low off the Mid Atlantic coast. The right image shows how the EPS trended over the last day valid this morning - not an exact copy of the sensitivity regions on the left map but pretty darn close. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022460686006129117 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022460686006129117"
X Link 2026-02-13T23:59Z 53.5K followers, [----] engagements

"So what should we be keeping an eye out for Bringing back my favorite ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA) tool - this shows the primary mode of variability in the EPS ensemble meaning either we get a rapidly deepening low off the Mid Atlantic coast or we don't. The right plot shows the sensitivity has little to do with the southern trough (#1) - but almost everything to do with trough #2 (right). The deeper the trough is the more likely a rapidly deepening low is and vice versa. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022082842776547368 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022082842776547368"
X Link 2026-02-12T22:58Z 53.5K followers, 13.9K engagements

"The northern shortwave trough will be moving into the NW US tonight subtle shifts in its location & amplitude will have significant implications on the Mid Atlantic/Southern New England forecast on Sun/Mon. Until models get a better handle on this feature gradually over the next 1-2 days I would be wary of outright dismissing a major (6+) snowstorm potential and especially wary of assuming no snow is a guarantee. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022520234775543914 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022520234775543914"
X Link 2026-02-14T03:56Z 53.5K followers, 10.3K engagements

"And if youre a snow enthusiast and worried about my snow curse dont worry Im currently on a plane leaving NJ because Im almost always out of town when theres snowstorms lol"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:58Z 53.5K followers, [----] engagements

"The TL;DR version of my thread below and posts over the last few days: It was always premature ruling out a snowstorm for Sun-Mon. Even when at one point no model besides a few ensemble members showed it it was always a plausible option based off of typical model errors & how this forecast is especially sensitive to short-term errors. A few notes about tomorrow-Mondays forecast: [--]. The models that do show a moderate-major snowstorm dont have a conventional phase but do so as the result of a slightly more amplified north stream trough that due to its sharp curvature is more quickly able to"
X Link 2026-02-14T15:14Z 53.4K followers, 15.1K engagements

"As the cyclone offshore is deepening the strengthening NE flow associated with its circulation is pushing the intense ocean effect snow bands SSW through eastern Massachusetts. Heavy snow rates over 1-2/hour are expected with these bands with the potential for isolated thundersnow"
X Link 2026-02-07T18:30Z 53.4K followers, [----] engagements

"I have to respectfully push back on this not only is this not the case but the maps you posted above dont support that statement either. Its correct that this upcoming week the time frame your maps are valid for dont support a Mid Atlantic snowstorm. The key is how much wave spacing there is between the departing Michigan ULL & incoming trough and how much upstream ridge amplification occurs due to the digging NE Pacific trough. Yes its transient but even a transient ridge is enough to lead to a major (not historic) snowstorm potential if the downstream config is favorable"
X Link 2026-02-17T00:54Z 53.4K followers, [----] engagements

"If you have a reason why Id love to hear it I am open to changing my mind if you have compelling evidence why Im wrong. It absolutely is possible a major snowstorm doesnt come out of it in fact its a slight majority solution amongst ensembles right now but neither you nor I can know that for sure right now until the upstream features are better resolved. This isnt a slam dunk synoptic configuration that is prohibitive of a major snowstorm potential"
X Link 2026-02-17T01:02Z 53.4K followers, [----] engagements

"Some quick thoughts on the Sun-Mon storm potential in a short thread: [--]. While deterministic guidance is highly volatile ensembles show low but non-negligible probabilities of a major snowstorm. As with the last storm at this lead time it's too soon to know which scenario will happen but there are hints we can keep an eye out for. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023591349707305259 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023591349707305259"
X Link 2026-02-17T02:52Z 53.4K followers, 22.9K engagements

"Meteorology explainer thread 🧵 Even though models no longer show a major snowstorm for Sun-Mon ensembles show a different story - while most ensemble members don't show snow out of those that do have snow most of those members show a major snowstorm. This is what we call a "low-likelihood high-impact" scenario. But how can a forecast still be so uncertain so close to the event More details below:"
X Link 2026-02-12T22:33Z 53.4K followers, 36.3K engagements

"Welp I said that before seeing the reports that already came in this morning. Were easily getting a solid area of 12-14+ in southern RI today https://x.com/keepinit_reale/status/2020118924935753968s=20 Woof so far. 12"+ coming https://t.co/Ivb5JfaMkN https://x.com/keepinit_reale/status/2020118924935753968s=20 Woof so far. 12"+ coming https://t.co/Ivb5JfaMkN"
X Link 2026-02-07T13:23Z 53.5K followers, [----] engagements

"2. The first point of uncertainty is whether a storm even exists near the Mid Atlantic next Sun-Mon. That depends in part on the separation between an antecedent upper low over the Great Lakes & the shortwave of interest over the Rockies later this week. If that Great Lakes low shears out or quickly moves off downstream with more separation between the two features odds of a snowstorm increase. If it's much slower/stronger with little to no height rises upstream of it odds of a snowstorm decrease. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023591988571107666"
X Link 2026-02-17T02:55Z 53.4K followers, [----] engagements

"Keep in mind that the default GFS 10:1 snow ratio maps factor in sleet and some freezing rain with 10:1 ratios. PolarWx snow maps for the GFS apply a precipitation type filter to mitigate this (right):"
X Link 2026-01-24T05:32Z 53.1K followers, 20.4K engagements

"Putting my skepticism of the Kuchera ratios for this event aside (itll be over 10:1 but Im not sure if by this much) the euro does produce more precipitation overall and delays the changeover to sleet to maximize snow totals (closer to the [--] end of my range if not a bit higher). Definitely a plausible outcome but wont be able to definitively rule it or other scenarios out until later today. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014965240216355147 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014965240216355147"
X Link 2026-01-24T07:35Z 53.1K followers, [---] engagements

"With the major snow/ice storm imminent my focus today will be on [--] areas: - Ice storm in the Mid Atlantic/Southeast - Snowfall amounts in the Ohio Valley/Northeast As a preview of what we'll be looking out for when narrowing down the fine details of the forecast there are still significant differences with where the heavy snow swath will be located - for example the HRRR with a southern scenario (left) and RRFS with a northern scenario (right). Upstream observations and short-term model adjustments will be important to monitor throughout the day"
X Link 2026-01-24T11:04Z 53.1K followers, 32.4K engagements

"Differences between models for tomorrow are tied to the amplitude and track of the storm. The ECMWF in the southern camp has a noticeably weaker and farther south mid-level low than the RRFS in the northern camp. These differences drive how far north sleet extends tomorrow"
X Link 2026-01-24T11:33Z 53.1K followers, 10.4K engagements

"Will make a final call for the NYC metro with my snow map later this afternoon but there appears to be a clear last minute adjustment towards a more amplified system which would favor the lower end of my forecast range (5-7) and a quick changeover to sleet tomorrow afternoon"
X Link 2026-01-24T16:34Z 53.1K followers, [----] engagements

"Quick thoughts while working on a snow map for tomorrow: Regardless of how much snow falls in NJ/NYC heavy snow rates over 1-2"/hour are expected at the peak during the afternoon. What is in question is how long these rates will last for and how quickly sleet begins which depends on nuances in exactly how strong and far north the cyclone is as a whole"
X Link 2026-01-24T19:06Z 53.1K followers, 16.2K engagements

"@sssdsol It is very much a plausible outcome - if the cyclone is slightly stronger/farther north WAA aloft leads to sleet already overspreading the NYC metro by 3-4pm with only 7-9 hours of snow in total. The longer sleet is held at bay the closer snow totals will be to a foot"
X Link 2026-01-24T19:09Z 53.1K followers, [----] engagements

"Snow forecast for tomorrows storm: This map wasnt as thorough as I wanted it to be given that ironically my travel plans were affected by this storm. And knowing that all forecasts are wrong but some are less so than others I decided to post this anyways despite it being a difficult forecast for NJ/NYC on south. Read onto the next post for the forecast reasoning which Ill use to evaluate what went wrong/right and why after the storm:"
X Link 2026-01-24T22:36Z 53.1K followers, 70K engagements

"Brief overview: A swath of heavy snow will be oriented WSW to ENE driven predominantly by warm air advection on Sunday. While a warm nose aloft and breezy winds may limit snow:liquid ratios my guess is they may end up in the 12:1 to 15:1 range for this portion of the event. A second round of differential cyclonic vorticity advection snow on Monday will drive lighter but much higher ratio snow generally along & north of I-90. At the peak of the event snow rates near or over 2/hour are expected including over locations where less than a foot of snow is expected. But more important for snow"
X Link 2026-01-24T22:41Z 53.1K followers, [----] engagements

"Forecast uncertainty: models still vary with the exact amplitude and latitude of the cyclone. I would be lying if I said I know for fact which is right and which is wrong. The HRRR/RAP/RGEM are in the weaker and south camp while the NAM/RRFS/MPAS suites are in the stronger and north camp. In the absence of obvious indicators pointing one way or another I went for a median approach in between these scenarios. This would bring sleet into NYC early Sunday evening but the sleet line would struggle to expand much north of NYC with precip type dependent on rates as heavier rates can adiabatically"
X Link 2026-01-24T22:46Z 53.1K followers, [----] engagements

"As warm air advection aloft continues to strengthen snow rates will continue to increase throughout the morning and early afternoon across NJ. Snow rates near or over 2/hour are expected by the peak in the early-mid afternoon"
X Link 2026-01-25T15:00Z 53.1K followers, [----] engagements

"The peak of the snowstorm is now ongoing in central/northern NJ. mPING observations & correlation coefficient indicate sleet is currently progressing into the Philly metro and will continue north into the NYC metro late this afternoon"
X Link 2026-01-25T16:47Z 53.2K followers, 10.4K engagements

"The sleet has been advancing slightly faster than even the NAM nest modeled at this point. Ive repeatedly tried to say this in spite of relentless harassment over the last few days the NAM nest excels at northward sleet extent when it has the synoptic evolution correct"
X Link 2026-01-25T18:16Z 53.2K followers, 31.2K engagements

"The sleet line will waver a bit south and fluctuate after it has reached its northernmost extent which will be partly driven by precip rates (heavier rates will lead to a slight southward shift in the sleet line once it reaches its peak latitude) @burgwx Hasnt it crashed back down in south central and EPA @burgwx Hasnt it crashed back down in south central and EPA"
X Link 2026-01-25T18:36Z 53.2K followers, 10.7K engagements

"Looking at the @nysmesonet NYC Micronet precipitation that fell so far over most of NYC looks to be averaged a bit over 0.70". Central Park additionally recorded 0.73" of precipitation through 1pm. Public snow reports from NYC & vicinity so far seem to be generally in the 7-9" so far indicating ratios from the all snow portion of the event averaged out to slightly over 10:1. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015498734663008693 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015498734663008693"
X Link 2026-01-25T18:55Z 53.2K followers, 13.4K engagements

"RT @wxbrad: This might be an all-time sounding around here [--] at 3280' but it's [--] at ground level. Also the [---] shift in the wind"
X Link 2026-01-25T22:32Z 53.2K followers, [--] engagements

"As Ive said to people at AMS today Houston looked like the aftermath of a devastating ice storm only without the ice"
X Link 2026-01-26T04:31Z 53.2K followers, 10.4K engagements

"@NbergWX Those scattered low probabilities outside of the main swath are an AIFS bug the AIFS ensemble snow accumulation fields for some reason erroneously show snow even in locations that are way too warm for it"
X Link 2026-01-26T10:50Z 53.2K followers, [----] engagements

"As a quick sanity check here's ESA applied for the valid time of the peak of the nor'easter: - stronger and more negatively tilted TPV is associated with a stronger and more northwest nor'easter - weaker and less negatively tilted TPV is associated with a weaker and farther southeast nor'easter These were already dynamically inherent assumptions but are further supported by ESA as a sanity check. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016021663259783438 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016021663259783438"
X Link 2026-01-27T05:33Z 53.2K followers, [----] engagements

"RT @burgwx: Monday 1/26 Forecast One thing that remains clear over the last few days is theres an extremely high end ceiling for snowf"
X Link 2026-01-27T15:21Z 53.1K followers, [--] engagements

"@CameronJNixon The 100m res TOR model consistently simulates a long-tracked EF-4 tornado over western Oklahoma. Chasing permits are fully booked as by this point storm chasing is a regulated industry and the entire SW OK region is a chaotic mess of drones helicopters & flying cars. (1/2)"
X Link 2021-11-20T01:46Z 53.4K followers, [--] engagements

"What do we know at this time Given the above factors barring any major synoptic-scale errors near the historical bounds for this lead time we know the following: ❄ A swath of heavy snow is likely from the south-central Plains into the Mid Atlantic where over 1-2 feet of snow are possible fueled by ample moisture long duration of snow and intense snow banding 🧊 A major ice storm is likely south of the snow swath https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013349485712126314 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013349485712126314"
X Link 2026-01-19T20:34Z 53.4K followers, [----] engagements

"This warning turned out prescient. Overnight guidance significantly adjusted towards heavy snow expanding well north into NYC New York & New England a scenario which very few ensemble members even hinted at yesterday. As Ive said earlier today I would be very careful with posting snow maps for the weekend storm this far out. There remains significant uncertainty with the amplitude and progression of both the SW US trough and the north stream trough which influences their interaction. This https://t.co/xxW2MVvdno As Ive said earlier today I would be very careful with posting snow maps for the"
X Link 2026-01-21T13:10Z 53.3K followers, 54.6K engagements

"Wednesday 1/21 Update As discussed earlier today models have significantly adjusted towards a more north system with much higher impact north of I-80 in the Ohio Valley & Northeast. Lets dive a bit deeper into the latest forecast:"
X Link 2026-01-21T22:50Z 53.3K followers, 63.6K engagements

"A few model watching notes: the GFS has not and still does not have a good handle on the synoptic evolution of the storm. It is currently in the process of catching up to the other model guidance. NAM and RGEM are useful for identifying how far north sleet might extend assuming they have a good handle on the synoptic evolution of the storm. If the synoptics are off so will the sleet extent. ECMWF exaggerates freezing rain extent at the expense of sleet. This means freezing rain QPF maps which already dont represent actual ice accretion as is will be extremely overdone from the ECMWF. be"
X Link 2026-01-22T22:49Z 53.3K followers, 129.5K engagements

"There is a legitimate winter weather storm potential to monitor for the East Coast in early February. The large-scale ingredients are there: - Departing antecedent trough suppressing the baroclinic zone and acting as a transient 50/50 low - SW US trough entering the Gulf - Potential north stream trough being transported into the central/southern US downstream of western North American ridging There is still a lot of uncertainty and a suppressed low track is quite possible. but there is a very high-end ceiling for a major snowstorm if one does materialize out of these ingredients. If you're"
X Link 2026-01-23T20:04Z 53.2K followers, 176.9K engagements

"These two sounding profiles compare the 18z NAM nest (left) and RGEM (right) over Northeast NJ on Sunday evening. These temperature profiles are very similar except for a slight warm wedge just above [---] hPa in the NAM nest while the RGEM maintains an isothermal layer just below freezing. Despite no significant differences in the large scale system this still makes the difference between 5-7 of snow changing to sleet late Sunday afternoon vs over 8-12 of snow with little to no sleet. Given that both of these models are often reliable for mid-level warm layers this is a slightly more"
X Link 2026-01-23T22:39Z 53.3K followers, 17.8K engagements

"Honestly its still a hard one for the NYC metro we are in the southern end of the max snow corridor where slight north/south shifts in the system and how quickly sleet moves in makes all the difference between 5-7 of snow changing to sleet by Sunday afternoon or 8-12+ of snow with only a little sleet on Sunday evening. Hence why upstream observations will be crucial. @burgwx Any early guesses yet @burgwx Any early guesses yet"
X Link 2026-01-24T05:53Z 53.4K followers, 16.6K engagements

"Elaborating on this point a bit more: As the saying goes "all models are wrong but some are useful." Each model has its own set of biases & weaknesses and strengths which forecasters leverage to try and get at a better forecast. The NAM has many weaknesses for sure - it's too slow with precipitation onset as was the case here and accordingly underestimated front-end snow totals. But one of its strengths is resolving mid-level warm layers and warm air advection and when it has a good handle on the synoptic evolution of the storm it does well with the sleet extent as was the case today. When we"
X Link 2026-01-25T19:00Z 53.3K followers, 25.5K engagements

"Here's a quick look at public snow reports (LSRs) over the last [--] hours. Snow reports in NYC & vicinity are so far generally in the 7-9 inch range:"
X Link 2026-01-25T19:29Z 53.3K followers, 15.1K engagements

"Be careful with snow drifts when measuring - sticking a ruler on top of the largest drift you find isn't an accurate measurement. It's best to take an average of measurements across several spots to get a more representative measurement"
X Link 2026-01-25T19:32Z 53.3K followers, [----] engagements

"MRMS radar reflectivity & HRRR precipitation type over the last [--] hours. An absolutely massive storm"
X Link 2026-01-25T19:36Z 53.3K followers, 149.2K engagements

"RT @NickPBassill: The radar correlation coefficient at 1.5km nicely highlights where the transition zone is between sleet & snow. The brig"
X Link 2026-01-25T22:40Z 53.2K followers, [--] engagements

"Quasi-Linear Convective Sleet (QLCS)"
X Link 2026-01-25T22:46Z 53.3K followers, 18.4K engagements

"Its currently snowing out in Houston meaning #AMS2026 in Houston got more snow than when AMS was held in Boston or in Baltimore"
X Link 2026-01-26T03:54Z 53.4K followers, 13.2K engagements

"Now that Ive had a chance to look over todays storm in more detail a couple of observations: the NAM nest did exceptionally well with the northward advancement rate of sleet but overdid the northernmost extent of sleet. I suspect it may be partly due to the NAM being slightly too strong with the cyclone & too far north with the mid-level warm front. The NAM also failed to show the sleet line wavering with precip rates and eventually pushing back south as much as it did. in contrast the HRRR underestimated the mid-level warm layer and was accordingly too slow with advancing sleet northward."
X Link 2026-01-26T04:12Z 53.3K followers, 10.6K engagements

"If this seems like TL;DR to you its because its also partly notekeeping for me for future reference. Its incredibly helpful to reference previous forecasts see what each model showed (& why it showed what it did) and how that influenced your thinking what the verification was and what the strengths & weaknesses of each model were"
X Link 2026-01-26T04:37Z 53.3K followers, [----] engagements

"Weve seen significant model adjustments for this potential early February storm over the last day and an increasing number of deterministic & ensemble members show an intense noreaster either just offshore or producing a major snowstorm. If a major snowstorm is to happen locations closer to the coast are most favored but given a highly chaotic upstream waveguide models will continue to remain highly variable over the coming days. The best we can do at this time is monitor this potential over the coming days. There is a legitimate winter weather storm potential to monitor for the East Coast in"
X Link 2026-01-26T04:51Z 53.3K followers, 148K engagements

"Its a busy time at the @WindBorneWx booth in the #AMS2026 exhibition hall featuring a snapshot of our model simulating a potential major East Coast snowstorm next weekend"
X Link 2026-01-27T01:02Z 53.3K followers, 37.1K engagements

"Monday 1/26 Forecast One thing that remains clear over the last few days is theres an extremely high end ceiling for snowfall from the upcoming weekend noreaster. The ingredients are all there: TPV lobe ejecting south out of Canada TPV quickly becomes negatively tilted over the SE US forcing rapid cyclogenesis near the Gulf Stream the suppressed height field downstream favors a slow moving low leading to prolonged duration heavy snow The million dollar question as is always the case at this lead time is where & exactly how much peak snow totals will be and no one can answer this with high"
X Link 2026-01-27T04:40Z 53.3K followers, 51.5K engagements

"Thread addition 🧵 The 18z EPS is a great example of significant ensemble spread so let's apply ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA) to it. First we need to look at the dominant mode of variability (EOF1) in the ensemble MSLP field which gives us a very strong signature of cyclone amplitude & NW/SE extent. Meaning: - positive EOF1 is associated with a deeper and farther northwest cyclone - negative EOF1 is associated with a weaker and farther southeast cyclone"
X Link 2026-01-27T05:31Z 53.2K followers, [----] engagements

"Tracing back to [--] hour lead time (valid Friday PM) the sensitivity is clearly tied to the TPV over the Midwest and the antecedent height field over the NE US: - more held back/slower TPV & more antecedent height rises over the NE US are associated with a stronger and more NW nor'easter. and vice versa for a weaker and more SE nor'easter. (minor correction - this plot is applied to the 50-member EPS not 31-member GEFS)"
X Link 2026-01-27T05:35Z 53.3K followers, [----] engagements

"Once you trace the signal far back enough the TPV is still tied to the sensitivity at [--] hour lead time (valid Weds PM) but so is a shear vorticity maximum over central-western Canada. As the largest sensitivities originate in largely data-sparse regions it will likely take at least 2-3 more days for models to start gaining a more consistent handle on this storm potential"
X Link 2026-01-27T05:42Z 53.3K followers, [----] engagements

"Tuesday 1/27 Forecast The EPS & AIFS guidance noticeably shifted southeast today either showing a major Carolinas snowstorm or keeping the heavy snow entirely offshore while missing the DC-NYC-BOS corridor. The GEFS in contrast is far more aggressive with snow expanding closer to I-95. While current probabilities of a major DC-BOS snowstorm have decreased I would still not feel confident in locking in on any particular solution just yet. Forecast analysis below: Monday 1/26 Forecast One thing that remains clear over the last few days is theres an extremely high end ceiling for snowfall from"
X Link 2026-01-28T00:23Z 53.3K followers, 50.4K engagements

"Following up from my discussion yesterday the biggest uncertainty is in the exact evolution of the TPV emerging out of Canada: - how quickly does the TPV become negatively tilted - how far south/west does this occur Broadly speaking scenarios range from the following: Scenario 1: More progressive and weaker TPV digs into the SE US and only becomes negatively tilted offshore with a minor-moderate snow event over the Carolinas & heavy snow well offshore Scenario 2: TPV is stronger and farther west becoming negatively tilted over the SE US & forcing rapid cyclogenesis just off the Carolinas with"
X Link 2026-01-28T00:29Z 53.3K followers, [----] engagements

"With temperatures remaining well below freezing for days to come ice will only continue to build up in the Hudson River Latest updates 👉 https://t.co/ciHNDA6tzj Ice continues to build on the Hudson River surrounding NYC. It's a rare sight making for stunning visuals as boats maneuver through it. https://t.co/7aaJzEnB6C Latest updates 👉 https://t.co/ciHNDA6tzj Ice continues to build on the Hudson River surrounding NYC. It's a rare sight making for stunning visuals as boats maneuver through it. https://t.co/7aaJzEnB6C"
X Link 2026-01-28T03:35Z 53.3K followers, 10.3K engagements

"For anyone model watching live: the 0z GFS took an adjustment with the TPV that will translate to a more amplified and NW cyclone in the east coast later in the run (meaning more snow for I-95) Using the 12z EPS for ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA) the primary mode of variability is still a stronger/more NW storm vs. a weaker/more SE storm left. This sensitivity is largely traced back to the amplitude of a TPV lobe emerging off the Hudson Bay over the next 1-2 https://t.co/x6YkYc28HL Using the 12z EPS for ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA) the primary mode of variability is still a"
X Link 2026-01-28T03:50Z 53.3K followers, 18.6K engagements

"Respectfully pushing back on this. A few reasons make it clear why this is not a good comparison: [--]. This isnt Jeffs fault but I am perplexed why [----] & [----] show up as CIPS analogs for the upcoming storm. Those were predominantly subtropical moisture driven while this event is predominantly north stream/TPV driven. [--]. a sample size of [--] is far too small to establish a significant correlation between prior analogs and expected evolution for this storm especially given the aforementioned synoptic differences. The analogs rarely lie. The top [--] from the @SLU_Official CIPS site at 00z/28 include"
X Link 2026-01-28T14:01Z 53.4K followers, 26.2K engagements

"We can use ensemble percentiles to look deeper into the underlying spread. The 25th percentile of all members has no snow from DC-NYC and just an inch for Boston. But the 75th percentile has Philly-NYC on the edge of heavy snow with a major snowstorm from the Delmarva to Long Island & eastern New England"
X Link 2026-01-28T14:37Z 53.3K followers, [----] engagements

"So what is the overall interpretation of the ensemble spread from the 6z EPS Locations along and south/east of I-95 up to NYC plus much of New England currently are forecast to receive little to no snow but there is a low-probability high-impact scenario where a slight amplification/NW adjustment in the cyclone will lead to much more snow than currently forecast"
X Link 2026-01-28T14:41Z 53.3K followers, [----] engagements

"One thing that should be clear by now is the major 2+ foot snow solutions for DC-NYC are off the table. The peak synoptic forcing for ascent from the TPV occurs too far to the south as the antecedent confluent zone is too suppressed and the TPV digs too far south before becoming negatively tilted. If there is any accumulating snow in the DC-NYC corridor it would require the low to occlude closer to the coast with pivoting snow bands on the NW fringe of the storm expanding far inland enough. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016725107289325587"
X Link 2026-01-29T04:08Z 53.3K followers, 15.7K engagements

"Thursday 1/29 Update This chain of quoted posts is an excellent example of how a storm potential is correctly identified from synoptic-scale signals in the extended range but where models were too far north/west in the medium range before backing off to the southeast. Over the last [--] days ensembles still showed a low-probability high-impact scenario where a modest NW shift would lead to several inches of snow along the DC-NYC corridor but that has yet to materialize and its quite possible it may not materialize either given the low probability. Wednesday 1/28 Morning Update This update will"
X Link 2026-01-29T14:28Z 53.3K followers, 18.5K engagements

"To be clear there is still a non-zero chance of accumulating snow in the DC-NYC metro. Even though most models dont show it right now a NW nudge in model guidance to lead to that outcome is within the historical bounds of model errors at this lead time. But the model scenarios that were shown in prior days of a historic snowstorm are simply no longer physically possible given where the TPV is currently situated and is expected to track"
X Link 2026-01-29T14:34Z 53.3K followers, [----] engagements

"Neat visual summary of all of the recon missions during the [----] Atlantic hurricane season with clusters for hurricanes Erin and Melissa clearly visible #AMS2026"
X Link 2026-01-29T14:53Z 53.4K followers, [----] engagements

"How unusual is this upcoming cold outbreak in Florida Per the latest forecast the cold airmass aloft is within 1-2 degrees Celsius of the year-round cold record from 1950-2024:"
X Link 2026-01-29T15:31Z 53.4K followers, 16K engagements

"❄ Snow in Tampa ❄ Youve likely heard the news by now theres a chance of snow in the Tampa-Sarasota corridor on Saturday night. It might sound too crazy to believe and it is indeed a very unusual scenario but if it doesnt happen its not because it was all hype or the potential never existed. If youre interested in the nerdy details read on for an in-depth meteorological analysis for why this snow potential exists and what would be needed for it to happen: https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017033672361234484 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017033672361234484"
X Link 2026-01-30T00:34Z 53.4K followers, 17.1K engagements

"The quoted map map is deceptive not only do our best models show only a low chance of over [--] of snow from DC-NYC this weekend but that map also includes snow from another potential snowstorm next week. This kind of bad information then reflects poorly on meteorologists when we get asked why the big promised snowstorm didnt happen. Communication should never come at the expense of accuracy or reliability. Some places are expected to see the MOST SNOW they've seen since [----] in the Carolinas this weekend Big time East Coast winter storm is about to unfold. https://t.co/b8XsTGfYbn Some places"
X Link 2026-01-30T01:35Z 53.4K followers, 52.7K engagements

"One of the most impressive aspects of this cold outbreak is its duration large swaths of the East Coast will be over 16-20 degrees below normal averaged over a 5-day period:"
X Link 2026-01-30T15:00Z 53.4K followers, 45.5K engagements

"@MaxVelocityWX This post is misleading. Extreme cold warnings were known as Wind chill warnings before [----] and the last time all of central Florida had wind chill warnings was [--] years ago"
X Link 2026-01-30T22:29Z 53.4K followers, 19.1K engagements

"This is as ripe as weather patterns get for persistent cold and low-latitude snow in the eastern US. Not only is there a western North American ridge which drives northerly flow advecting frigid air from Canada south into the US but there is a broad region of high-latitude blocking with a zonally (west-east) oriented corridor of below normal heights. This kind of pattern is more favorable for significantly suppressing the low track to the south and preventing cyclones from cutting too far north as opposed to -NAO episodes where the negative height anomalies to the south are smaller in scale"
X Link 2026-01-31T00:36Z 53.4K followers, 32.1K engagements

"As we head into mid-February we'll see the pattern starting to change as the North Pacific troughing that's been locked in place and driving the western North American ridge breaks down. This will support troughing in the West Coast - perhaps finally breaking the prolonged Rockies snow drought - but what happens farther to the east is a big wild card. Typically western US troughs mean eastern US ridging - but with strong Greenland blocking persisting with lingering antecedent airmass the large-scale pattern may favor another cross-county winter storm if this signal persists and subtropical"
X Link 2026-01-31T00:42Z 53.4K followers, 12.5K engagements

"Your casual reminder that not every noreaster trends stronger and northwest with decreasing lead time:"
X Link 2026-01-31T21:32Z 53.4K followers, 50.4K engagements

"@PlaysSaheb Indeed - especially in the peak of winter you don't necessarily need below average temperatures for above average snow (and in some cases well below average temps implies snow suppression to the south)"
X Link 2026-02-01T01:36Z 53.4K followers, [---] engagements

"Ice buildup continues along the edges of the Hudson River this photo is from the NJ side theres a lot more ice from the NYC side of the river"
X Link 2026-02-01T20:48Z 53.4K followers, [----] engagements

"@HeatwaveKGNS Not sure. the light snow obs was legit but my first guess would be if it may have had something to do with snow blowing onto the gauge"
X Link 2026-02-03T00:41Z 53.4K followers, [--] engagements

"Running some (very) quick math on GHCN daily data - Central Park recorded its 11th coldest 7-day stretch since [----] this past week. The last time a 7-day stretch was this cold was in [----] by about half a degree. and before that 1994"
X Link 2026-02-03T01:14Z 53.4K followers, 18.1K engagements

"The coldest 7-day stretch in Central Park's records is around New Years' Day in 1917-18 with a 7-day average temperature of 2.5F. Not sure if NYC would be able to handle a Times Square NYE ball drop that cold nowadays"
X Link 2026-02-03T01:17Z 53.4K followers, [----] engagements

"@cody__snell Not gonna lie I was initially eyeing that lead wave Weds morning but seems the vorticity max to the north has been trending towards suppressing that"
X Link 2026-02-03T03:17Z 53.4K followers, [----] engagements

"Just to clarify (my bad for not being clearer in my original post) the plot compares the ensemble standard deviation vs the climatological standard deviation for this time of year. So a value of [---] means that ensemble spread in 500mb height at that location is [---] times the climatological variability from historical data at that location & time of year TL;DR much larger ensemble spread than usual"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:47Z 53.4K followers, [---] engagements

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