@ZhouJaron Avatar @ZhouJaron Jaron Zhou

There is no mention of Jaron Zhou in the provided tweets. The tweets appear to be discussing various US elections, including mayoral, gubernatorial, and attorney general races, with a focus on results, polling, and prediction markets.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance 6.25% travel destinations 3.91% countries 3.91% celebrities 3.13%

Social topic influence dems 8.59%, chance #650, this is 6.25%, kalshi 6.25%, in the 5.47%, lol 5.47%, to win 4.69%, market 4.69%, the most 3.91%, new york 3.91%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @kalshi @forecasterenten @polltracker2024 @usapolling @statisticurban @stevekornacki @popcrave @chaznuttycombe @admcrlsn @marionstefan @rustbeltcrypto @jeremylshow @bernardbulletin @rebels2008 @bp3_pm @drnealdunnfl2 @elizlanders @europeelects @acyn @bayareanewlibs

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Gwen Graham said she was considering running for this district A special election would be one of the most favorable conditions for her A top source says @DrNealDunnFL2 will announce an early retirement next week for a time certain that will be before the Midterm. Special election in Summer. A top source says @DrNealDunnFL2 will announce an early retirement next week for a time certain that will be before the Midterm. Special election in Summer"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:02Z [----] followers, 17.6K engagements

"All those newly drawn R+15 Texas House seats looking a bit dicey at the moment It certainly appears that Democrat Taylor Rehmet will defeat Trump-endorsed Leigh Wambsganss and flip Texas SD-9 a seat held by Republicans for [--] years and carried by Trump by [--] points in [----]. https://t.co/c5OGWJTtnV It certainly appears that Democrat Taylor Rehmet will defeat Trump-endorsed Leigh Wambsganss and flip Texas SD-9 a seat held by Republicans for [--] years and carried by Trump by [--] points in [----]. https://t.co/c5OGWJTtnV"
X Link 2026-02-01T04:35Z [----] followers, 15.9K engagements

"Democrats just hit 70% chance to win the Maine senate race for the first time Maine didn't vote for this. https://t.co/vdLl21L3uF Maine didn't vote for this. https://t.co/vdLl21L3uF"
X Link 2026-02-04T16:21Z [----] followers, 159.4K engagements

"Great segment from @ForecasterEnten about why the GOP is getting more worried about the Senate. In Texas the controversial AG Ken Paxton is favored to beat incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the primary and GOP general election chances have been sliding. Ofc the other side of that coin is that Dems seem poised to nominate James Talarico over Jasmine Crockett"
X Link 2026-02-06T19:08Z [----] followers, 98.1K engagements

"@ElizLanders Please someone ask her at the next press conference who the gorilla in the Lion King is"
X Link 2026-02-06T19:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"After starting out as a super crowded field the markets see this as a 3-way race for now. Schlossberg surging likely on news of the planned endorsement from Pelosi. Breaking News: Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi is said to be planning to endorse Jack Schlossberg a political commentator and the grandson of John F. Kennedy in his run for a hotly contested House seat in New York City. https://t.co/Nu6W2PVDa2 Breaking News: Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi is said to be planning to endorse Jack Schlossberg a political commentator and the grandson of John F. Kennedy in his run for a hotly contested House"
X Link 2026-02-07T19:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@EuropeElects Magyar leads for now but cannot count Orban out. Reminds me a little of the last Turkish election where Erdogan managed to win despite polling showing him down by as much as double digits"
X Link 2026-02-07T19:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Pretty strong messaging from Ossoff if he holds onto his Senate seat in Georgia he could become a real [----] presidential contender. Currently at 5% chance to win the nomination Ossoff: We were told that MAGA was for working-class Americans. But this is a government of by and for the ultra-rich. Its the wealthiest Cabinet ever. This is the Epstein class. They are the elites they pretend to hate. If youre Steve Bannon how do you sell any of this https://t.co/CtZmBl1MYB Ossoff: We were told that MAGA was for working-class Americans. But this is a government of by and for the ultra-rich. Its the"
X Link 2026-02-08T02:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"This is not English Clavicular was mid jestergooning when a group of Foids came and spiked his Cortisol levels 😭 Is Ignoring the Foids while munting and mogging Moids more useful then SMV chadfishing in the club https://t.co/QtSfANxCyh Clavicular was mid jestergooning when a group of Foids came and spiked his Cortisol levels 😭 Is Ignoring the Foids while munting and mogging Moids more useful then SMV chadfishing in the club https://t.co/QtSfANxCyh"
X Link 2026-02-08T02:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Acyn This seems like messaging that could work far beyond a Georgia senate race 5% chance Ossoff is the Dem presidential nominee in 2028"
X Link 2026-02-08T02:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Time for an obligatory Shane Hazel appreciation post: Ossoff: "You're seeing what I'm seeing right The president posting about the Obamas like a Klansman." https://t.co/56hNtFtfNh Ossoff: "You're seeing what I'm seeing right The president posting about the Obamas like a Klansman." https://t.co/56hNtFtfNh"
X Link 2026-02-08T02:43Z [----] followers, 427.2K engagements

"@USA_Polling Ossoff only at 5% to be the nominee at the moment but his stature will likely grow with the senate race outcome"
X Link 2026-02-08T02:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@BayAreaNewLibs @ProBillionaires The California billionaire wealth tax only has a 28% chance of passing in 2026"
X Link 2026-02-08T02:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Said this for a while now if Ossoff can win and win big the [----] chatter will be deafening. Similar to the DeSantis hype post [----] except 1) Ossoff seems much more normal in person and 2) no person with Trump-like stature on the Dem side in the primary. If Ossoff ends up winning his senate seat by like 7% or more I think he just rides that momentum all the way to the White House in [----]. Hes a perfect candidate. - Can unify the base. - Battle-tested swing-state winner. - Handsome + charismatic = good combo (Obama JFK etc) If Ossoff ends up winning his senate seat by like 7% or more I think he"
X Link 2026-02-08T15:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@KyivIndependent 55% chance that Magyar defeats Orban and becomes prime minister after the election"
X Link 2026-02-09T00:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@danpfeiffer Worth noting that although Ossoff is the most vulnerable Dem incumbent up hes strongly favored to win at this point:"
X Link 2026-02-09T00:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@PatrickSvitek @hobbyschooluh Huge narrative nuke in the Dem primary if true"
X Link 2026-02-09T15:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"This is a fascinating race where the markets believe Talarico is favored to win even as most polling shows a dead heat or Crockett lead. New UH Hobby School poll of #txsen Paxton: 38% Cornyn: 31% Hunt: 17% Suggests voters are starting to come home to their camps and has Paxton winning any runoff hes in + Cornyn Hunt https://t.co/fiPPvGWi9c New UH Hobby School poll of #txsen Paxton: 38% Cornyn: 31% Hunt: 17% Suggests voters are starting to come home to their camps and has Paxton winning any runoff hes in + Cornyn Hunt https://t.co/fiPPvGWi9c"
X Link 2026-02-09T18:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"One sign that this is NOT what Trump actually said is the fact that the Fed Chair Nom markets have not moved. If this was actually about Warsh (and not Powell) the markets would have reacted much more strongly. 🚨TRUMP: I made a mistake on Kevin Warsh. https://t.co/q5QHAsYYUm 🚨TRUMP: I made a mistake on Kevin Warsh. https://t.co/q5QHAsYYUm"
X Link 2026-02-10T04:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Lutnick spiking to be the next Trump cabinet member to leave Lutnick clearly lied about his relationship with Epstein which turned out to be much deeper and lasted much longer than Lutnick said. All across Europe politicians are losing their careers over Epsteins ties to them but no one in MAGA gives a damn about Lutnick. The White Lutnick clearly lied about his relationship with Epstein which turned out to be much deeper and lasted much longer than Lutnick said. All across Europe politicians are losing their careers over Epsteins ties to them but no one in MAGA gives a damn about Lutnick."
X Link 2026-02-10T13:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@litcapital Amazing the impact given this is all pretty theoretical the tax only has a 29% chance of passing and is basically 50-50 on even making it onto the ballot"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Notably Newsom has not moved much since last fall this is mostly due to Vances decline and Rubios rise BREAKING: JD Vance and Gavin Newsom are only 4% apart in the [----] Presidential race the tightest its ever been https://t.co/q6dZa3rqHB BREAKING: JD Vance and Gavin Newsom are only 4% apart in the [----] Presidential race the tightest its ever been https://t.co/q6dZa3rqHB"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Oh if they both run this could bring back the Trump vs DeSantis dynamic in full force Trump adviser @alexbruesewitz is strongly considering running for this seat that is currently held by Neal Dunn according to sources familiar. This could lead to a messy primary between a fierce desantis critic Bruesewitz and DeSantis wife if the speculative candidates do Trump adviser @alexbruesewitz is strongly considering running for this seat that is currently held by Neal Dunn according to sources familiar. This could lead to a messy primary between a fierce desantis critic Bruesewitz and DeSantis wife"
X Link 2026-02-11T23:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"New Hampshire has governor elections every [--] years so all its governors are constantly thinking about reelection. Even in what could be a decent year for Dems Ayotte is still heavily favored to win. Republican governor vetoes anti-trans bill. yes really https://t.co/Q6XhIslj7q Republican governor vetoes anti-trans bill. yes really https://t.co/Q6XhIslj7q"
X Link 2026-02-11T23:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The really crazy thing about this is that only ONE candidate ran on the GOP side in a Harris +6 state 🚨Report: Republicans in New Mexico wont have a candidate for the [----] general election against Democrat Incumbent Senator Ben Ray Lujn The only candidate who was running was disqualified This is the first time this has ever happened New Mexico State history https://t.co/WL0Hw6acN6 🚨Report: Republicans in New Mexico wont have a candidate for the [----] general election against Democrat Incumbent Senator Ben Ray Lujn The only candidate who was running was disqualified This is the first time"
X Link 2026-02-12T04:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"If Ossoff wins by like 7-8 points or more get ready for [----] DeSantis - esque headlines and hype Ive been seeing a lot of Ossoff +4/+5 hypothetical scenarios GA was R+2.2 vs R+1.5 nationally in [----] almost in line with the national result. Ossoffs a reasonably strong incumbent too So Im saying we need to think bigger 🙂 Ive been seeing a lot of Ossoff +4/+5 hypothetical scenarios GA was R+2.2 vs R+1.5 nationally in [----] almost in line with the national result. Ossoffs a reasonably strong incumbent too So Im saying we need to think bigger 🙂"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:52Z [----] followers, 13.2K engagements

"Robson bows out of the Arizona Governor election. With her exit the primary race now appears to be between Rep. Andy Biggs and Rep. Dave Schweikert. Thank you Arizona ❤ https://t.co/htJcrtMsSX Thank you Arizona ❤ https://t.co/htJcrtMsSX"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Idk he should keep hiking the Appalachian trail NEW: Mark Sanford is eyeing a political comeback -- including a possible primary challenge to Lindsey Graham Sanford met with GOP strategist Jeff Roe earlier this week to discuss his options https://t.co/nVPkQcecZe NEW: Mark Sanford is eyeing a political comeback -- including a possible primary challenge to Lindsey Graham Sanford met with GOP strategist Jeff Roe earlier this week to discuss his options https://t.co/nVPkQcecZe"
X Link 2026-02-14T06:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@blockedfreq Crazy given how Dems couldve reasonably gotten 50-60k more votes out of Philly alone based on [----] turnout"
X Link 2022-11-23T20:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@PollTracker2024 Wow shes rly just throwing shade at the entire [----] Dem primary field"
X Link 2025-09-18T21:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Bubblebathgirl Shes fallen to fourth place at 15%. Only candidate whose odds have plunged faster is Jay Jones"
X Link 2025-10-15T05:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"One year ago Kathy Hochul was only at 56% chance to win the Democratic primary. Today her main challenger dropped out and shes at 98% chance to win the primary. The way her political fortunes have changed in the past year is simply stunning. To sum up Hochuls good fortune: -Lawler declines to run -Stefanik drops out [--] weeks after launching her campaign -Delgado drops his primary challenge To sum up Hochuls good fortune: -Lawler declines to run -Stefanik drops out [--] weeks after launching her campaign -Delgado drops his primary challenge"
X Link 2026-02-11T03:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"A lot of people thought that Bass would face a strong challenge from the center or the right. Instead its the Democratic-socialist linked Nithya Raman that is shaking up the race (and market) The plot twist shaking Los Angeles https://t.co/hKgg5b9vdw The plot twist shaking Los Angeles https://t.co/hKgg5b9vdw"
X Link 2026-02-14T18:08Z [----] followers, 16.6K engagements

"Needless to say Democrats winning white voters in [----] would be game over for the GOP Generic Ballot Polling Among White Americans: 🔵 Democrats: 46% 🔴 Republican: 44% Quantus / Feb [--] [----] (Republican Pollster) Generic Ballot Polling Among White Americans: 🔵 Democrats: 46% 🔴 Republican: 44% Quantus / Feb [--] [----] (Republican Pollster)"
X Link 2026-02-15T22:14Z [----] followers, 73.9K engagements

"Democrats hit a new high of 40% chance to win the Senate in [----] "Who should control the Senate" 🔵 Democrats: 50% 🔴 Republicans: 42% Quantus / Feb [--] [----] (Republican Pollster) "Who should control the Senate" 🔵 Democrats: 50% 🔴 Republicans: 42% Quantus / Feb [--] [----] (Republican Pollster)"
X Link 2026-02-15T22:16Z [----] followers, 31.4K engagements

"This might only get Democrats to parity if the Supreme Court rules against the VRA later this year with potentially a dozen Dem seats in the South at risk 🚨BREAKING🚨 Democrats will attempt to redraw congressional maps in Washington Colorado and Pennsylvania in [----] according to people close to Hakeem Jeffries. 🚨BREAKING🚨 Democrats will attempt to redraw congressional maps in Washington Colorado and Pennsylvania in [----] according to people close to Hakeem Jeffries"
X Link 2026-02-16T09:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@metzgov @lxeagle17 Thats 63% of the House"
X Link 2022-07-19T22:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@AvaldamonArt @WeirdMedieval No wonder the renaissance started there"
X Link 2022-10-18T23:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Garrett_Archer @KariLake @katiehobbs @bgmasters @CaptMarkKelly @RealMarkFinchem @Adrian_Fontes @AbrahamHamadeh @krismayes The rurals are pretty much all in at this point just Maricopa other blue counties and Pinal left"
X Link 2022-11-12T02:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@JenAFifield Most inefficient way to get rid of ballots ever"
X Link 2022-11-28T18:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@KariLakeWarRoom If Cochise doesnt certify Dems gain 10k votes statewide lol"
X Link 2022-11-28T20:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@schlagteslinks Mark Udalls political playbook was [--] years ahead of its time apparently"
X Link 2023-01-11T02:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@DeSantisFan2024 Turns out libs were right when they called out trump cultists"
X Link 2023-03-22T03:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"This poll unironically makes me feel better for Bidens numbers in the other states given that hes winning Illinois by at least [--] [----] Illinois GE: Biden 43% (+9) Trump 34% .@EmersonPolling [---] RV 10/1-4 https://t.co/MIkA5dn67k https://t.co/nF7VWAAvDj [----] Illinois GE: Biden 43% (+9) Trump 34% .@EmersonPolling [---] RV 10/1-4 https://t.co/MIkA5dn67k https://t.co/nF7VWAAvDj"
X Link 2023-10-15T20:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@GalenMetzger1 If Arab Americans start voting GOP over Israel itd be a massive self own"
X Link 2023-10-31T18:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@dougboneparth This money is absolutely not all going to the rager"
X Link 2024-05-02T12:43Z [----] followers, 40.5K engagements

"@davidgross_man Wait they only polled Long Island Or just for these cross tabs"
X Link 2024-08-06T23:05Z [----] followers, 22K engagements

"@ghispainful More Dems voted than in the presidential primary lmao def an enthusiasm surge"
X Link 2024-08-15T15:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@qlzsu Actually ohios rurals are just a lot more populated in general tbh vs a state like Illinois"
X Link 2024-11-02T13:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@umichvoter Clearly this is about more than just Gaza"
X Link 2024-11-06T15:29Z [----] followers, 17.2K engagements

"@StatisticUrban Cuomo was also supposed to be up like 30+ with black voters"
X Link 2025-06-25T04:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@ZacharyDonnini Also highlights how republican white voters in Mississippi are lol"
X Link 2025-07-22T14:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I want to point out that the aggregate of polls during the Dem primary did not show anything near a 50-50 race even at the end. But predictions markets like @Kalshi factor in lots of other data such as the early voting numbers showing sky high youth turnout in more leftist-friendly neighborhoods of the city. Thats why by Election Day before any results were known the markets had narrowed to basically 50-50 odds already. If the polls and poly markets were wrong during the primary WHY do we believe they are right now If the polls and poly markets were wrong during the primary WHY do we believe"
X Link 2025-09-06T22:48Z [----] followers, 13.5K engagements

"@StatisticUrban Dark horse states that each party has potential in and need to keep an eye on: Kansas for the Dems and Rhode Island for the GOP"
X Link 2025-09-07T05:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Today (Sept 8) is Election Day in Norway heres a quick recap of where things stand going into an election that will determine all [---] members of their parliament and their next Prime Minister: For a long time the ruling Labour Party (last elected in 2021) looked like it would get crushed polling in third behind the center right Conservatives and the populist right Progress Party. Just like in Canada and Australia though Trumps election win blunted the right wings momentum and drove a rallying effect around the left-wing government. But it was Jens Stoltenberg (the wildly popular former"
X Link 2025-09-08T13:10Z [----] followers, 24.7K engagements

"This is what @Kalshi was made for. Flashback: in July the One Big Beautiful Bill limited gambling deductions in taxes to 90% of losses down from 100% previously. In response Nevada Congresswoman Dina Titus (who represents part of Vegas) proposed the FAIR BET Act an amendment to the bill that would restore the ability to deduct 100% of gambling losses. Now it seems like the House Rules Committee just rejected the push. Sportsbooks wont care they dont pay the cost; users do when they file taxes. Good news: Kalshi traders don't have to worry about this since our CFTC-regulated prediction markets"
X Link 2025-09-10T00:04Z [----] followers, 29K engagements

"Imagine making 100X return just because you were extremely bullish on Tim Walz. Wow. Only on @Kalshi Im running for reelection to continue serving as Governor of Minnesota. Weve made historic progress in our state but were not done yet. Im staying in the fight and I need you with me. https://t.co/NsVCXfq4M2 Im running for reelection to continue serving as Governor of Minnesota. Weve made historic progress in our state but were not done yet. Im staying in the fight and I need you with me. https://t.co/NsVCXfq4M2"
X Link 2025-09-16T17:20Z [----] followers, 123.8K engagements

"Beyond excited to officially announce @Kalshi's partnership with @votehub through the midterms VoteHub is changing the game across election analysis and data visualization. You may have seen their incredible [----] Election map released this week which provides vote share estimates by demographic at a precinct level something never done before. Meanwhile Kalshi is revolutionizing political forecasting through our people-powered prediction markets and we are thrilled to have VoteHubs data driving our markets Big news VoteHub is partnering with @Kalshi through the midterms. Together were"
X Link 2025-09-17T16:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@PollTracker2024 Pete would not have been a good VP choice unfortunately Harris shouldve tried to put more distance between her and the administration and Pete would not have helped accomplish that"
X Link 2025-09-18T02:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@souljagoyteller Even at the time it was clear that it was a loveless landslide mostly caused by Reform and Tories splitting vote Labour % barely increased from previous election"
X Link 2025-09-20T06:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@BasedIllinoisan Just based on that Forsyth county result its like Ossoff +8 or something lol"
X Link 2025-09-21T00:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Dont forget that Georgia has [--] statewide Public Service Commission races this fall and theyre both partisan (D vs R) races This is the defining issue in the Georgia statewide races happening in November: https://t.co/IJdIs53EUB (Yes Georgia has statewide races this fall Its one of just [--] states electing statewide officials tho everyone is sleeping on this.) This is the defining issue in the Georgia statewide races happening in November: https://t.co/IJdIs53EUB (Yes Georgia has statewide races this fall Its one of just [--] states electing statewide officials tho everyone is sleeping on this.)"
X Link 2025-09-21T16:11Z [----] followers, 11.8K engagements

"This is an internal poll so take with lots of salt. But its undeniable that sentiment on how well Sherrill will do has shifted in recent weeks. Last week she was at 28% chance to win by 14% or more the likeliest margin. Now traders think theres a 54% chance she ekes out a win by [--] points or less. [----] New Jersey Governor Race Poll 🔴 Jack Ciattarelli: 46% (+1) 🔵 Mikie Sherrill: 45% National Research (🔴) Internal 9/16-18 https://t.co/7AnnofkUlC [----] New Jersey Governor Race Poll 🔴 Jack Ciattarelli: 46% (+1) 🔵 Mikie Sherrill: 45% National Research (🔴) Internal 9/16-18"
X Link 2025-09-21T18:07Z [----] followers, 26.8K engagements

"@samhaselby I didnt say he couldnt be on the ticket because he was gay. Proceeds to use the next [--] seconds to explain why Buttigieg being gay made him too big a risk to be on the ticket"
X Link 2025-09-23T15:52Z [----] followers, 31.2K engagements

"@omgTrex22 Doesnt the fact that they could be so ambiguously interpreted mean that they could be adapted after an election to explain any outcome"
X Link 2025-09-24T18:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@PollTracker2024 Part of his reasoning was that Elissa Slotkin swore a lot when he met her and thats authentic (this is actually what he said)"
X Link 2025-09-28T01:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The return of wine cave discourse in a Dem primary I promise you I will not be attending any DSCC fundraising events in a wine cave in California. I promise you I will not be attending any DSCC fundraising events in a wine cave in California"
X Link 2025-09-28T01:35Z [----] followers, 57.4K engagements

"Had a fantastic time speaking on the Prediction Markets panel at the Political Analytics Conference It was great to be back at Harvard to talk about the future of @Kalshi in elections forecasting and beyond. Huge thanks to our moderator @stranter and to my fellow panelists @mschwimer and @gelliottmorris for such a thoughtful discussion. We covered a ton of topics such as: - Kalshis explosive growth and leadership in the prediction markets space - The (often symbiotic) relationship between prediction markets and polls - The accuracy of Kalshi markets in the [----] elections and the NYC Mayoral"
X Link 2025-09-28T16:08Z [----] followers, 22.2K engagements

"Whats most notable to me isnt the Adams number on the chart. Its that Curtis Sliwas chances to drop out also jumped from 8% to 20% reflecting traders belief that pressure will now mount on him to follow Adams lead and exit the race. BREAKING: Mayor Eric Adams is dropping out of New York Citys mayoral race amid escalating pressure to clear the crowded field in a last-ditch attempt to stop socialist Zohran Mamdanis election to City Hall. https://t.co/tn2FB9eGgk BREAKING: Mayor Eric Adams is dropping out of New York Citys mayoral race amid escalating pressure to clear the crowded field in a"
X Link 2025-09-28T17:59Z [----] followers, 62.4K engagements

"@JCColtin Sliwa once said that his favorite thing do to was running for NYC mayor and I believe him lol"
X Link 2025-09-28T18:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"In honor of Eric Adams dropping out heres one of my favorite moments from his mayoralty: New York City mayor Eric Adams has ended his bid for re-election. https://t.co/A3obmpEnzc New York City mayor Eric Adams has ended his bid for re-election. https://t.co/A3obmpEnzc"
X Link 2025-09-28T20:21Z [----] followers, 471.5K engagements

"This post (and community note) is a close second: We call New York City the Port-Au-Prince of America. We feel the pain our Haitian neighbors feel as the situation grows dire. To the people of Haiti and our own Haitian community here in New York City know that we stand with you today and always. We call New York City the Port-Au-Prince of America. We feel the pain our Haitian neighbors feel as the situation grows dire. To the people of Haiti and our own Haitian community here in New York City know that we stand with you today and always"
X Link 2025-09-28T20:22Z [----] followers, 25.9K engagements

"@PopCrave 82% chance that Zohran wins but 100% chance the debate will be less funny with Adams gone"
X Link 2025-09-28T22:31Z [----] followers, 10.1K engagements

"@ChazNuttycombe Real echoes of Mark Robinson here"
X Link 2025-10-01T17:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@SteveKornacki Hes a net [--] points more popular with the opposing party than the party that he represents. Is there any other senator whos close Murkowski maybe Either way this makes him potentially vulnerable in a Dem primary in 2028"
X Link 2025-10-01T19:42Z [----] followers, 17K engagements

"Imagine if Shannon Taylor had won the Democratic nomination for AG instead of Jay Jones Delegate Geary Higgins tweets out the text messages described in @AudreyFahlberg's piece: Delegate Geary Higgins tweets out the text messages described in @AudreyFahlberg's piece:"
X Link 2025-10-03T20:45Z [----] followers, 44.5K engagements

"BIG movement in our VA AG market Jones plummets from 80% chance of winning to just 44%. For the first time trader see incumbent GOP AG Miyares as favored to win. A joint statement from @SenLouiseLucas and @SenatorLocke https://t.co/vKsqrVEO8Z A joint statement from @SenLouiseLucas and @SenatorLocke https://t.co/vKsqrVEO8Z"
X Link 2025-10-04T02:34Z [----] followers, 62.9K engagements

"@nicholaswu12 I havent seen anything from Jeffries that would make me feel confident in his debate skills"
X Link 2025-10-06T19:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@TheChiefNerd Trump definitely has that gene mutation where you only need like [--] hours of sleep a night max"
X Link 2025-10-07T12:54Z [----] followers, 88.3K engagements

"Her odds absolutely tanked following this interview release. Not only was crash out bad the answer itself was also not what you want to say even if she doesnt mathematically need Trump voters in a D vs R race she created an impression that shed ignore or dismiss 40% of Californians"
X Link 2025-10-08T13:43Z [----] followers, 40.2K engagements

"@badhombre Shes now in third behind Rick Caruso in our CA Gov market"
X Link 2025-10-10T02:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@ForecasterEnten Neither of the two candidates ahead of her in the market Alex Padilla or Rick Caruso have declared their candidacies yet. Shes basically coming in third in a one way race"
X Link 2025-10-10T14:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@JDCocchiarella Even with her entry seemingly guaranteed shes still in a tossup race against Platner. Thats remarkably bad for a two term incumbent governor and speaks to the energy that Platner has captured"
X Link 2025-10-11T01:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Fetterman criticizing Democrats and MTG criticizing Republicans for the shutdown. Try explaining that to someone in fall [----] lol Fetterman: My party may want to shut our government down. That's like I'll be a Democrat saying hey that's wrong. https://t.co/jT0CTOeAzM Fetterman: My party may want to shut our government down. That's like I'll be a Democrat saying hey that's wrong. https://t.co/jT0CTOeAzM"
X Link 2025-10-13T01:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@BruneElections North Carolina Supreme Court races really should be getting the same amount of attention that Wisconsin Supreme Court races do"
X Link 2025-10-13T21:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@AZAGMayes Speaker Johnson knows that swearing Grijalva in would likely result in a vote on releasing the Epstein files that could very well pass (or at the very least get every member of the House on the record about the issue)"
X Link 2025-10-14T22:12Z [----] followers, 15.8K engagements

"@Kalshi Theyve gone down even more since this aired yesterday"
X Link 2025-10-16T16:34Z [----] followers, 16.1K engagements

"Curtis Sliwa slams Andrew Cuomo in NYC mayoral debate: You think youre the toughest guy alive you lost your own primary you have a difficult understanding of what the term No is"
X Link 2025-10-17T00:25Z [----] followers, 68.2K engagements

"@Lis_Smith He can do a whole debate without filler words"
X Link 2025-10-17T00:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The market does not like this video especially the fact that the Ciattarelli campaign will likely be dogged by questions about this in the final weeks of the campaign. Sherrills odds have moved above 80% again in our market. Ciattarelli's executive director for Muslim relations Dr. Ibrar Nadeem introduces Ciattarelli says he wants a ban on same-sex marriage and insists he isn't "taking money from Jews" Ciattarelli's executive director for Muslim relations Dr. Ibrar Nadeem introduces Ciattarelli says he wants a ban on same-sex marriage and insists he isn't "taking money from Jews""
X Link 2025-10-20T19:46Z [----] followers, 116.3K engagements

"@admcrlsn Any Democrat winning a statewide race in Texas would unleash a [----] magnitude political earthquake"
X Link 2025-10-21T03:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Its crazy that Pop Crave is posting about Pennsylvania state Supreme Court retention elections lol Upcoming Pennsylvania Supreme Court elections are some of the most important of this year. The court rules on issues such as abortion rights LGBTQ+ rights and IVF in the state. https://t.co/GRAMRzlYMf Upcoming Pennsylvania Supreme Court elections are some of the most important of this year. The court rules on issues such as abortion rights LGBTQ+ rights and IVF in the state. https://t.co/GRAMRzlYMf"
X Link 2025-10-21T03:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@samshirazim Also even if Dems are already ahead in VA Gov Obama can likely still help boost Dem turnout and margin which is critical for downballot races"
X Link 2025-10-21T22:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Jones is surging in our market back at a 45% chance to win. Polls agree that hes trailing Spanberger badly but can she win by enough to carry him over the line Biggest question is how undecideds will break in this race in the final days of the campaign. New - Governor Poll - Virginia 🔵 Spanberger 55% 🔴 Sears 42% ATTORNEY GENERAL 🔵 Jones 50% 🔴 Miyares 45% S. Navigation #C - LV - 10/20 New - Governor Poll - Virginia 🔵 Spanberger 55% 🔴 Sears 42% ATTORNEY GENERAL 🔵 Jones 50% 🔴 Miyares 45% S. Navigation #C - LV - 10/20"
X Link 2025-10-22T17:43Z [----] followers, 15.6K engagements

"@CBSNewsPoll Prop [--] now favored to win by more than Mamdani in NYC"
X Link 2025-10-22T19:41Z [----] followers, 38K engagements

"NYC debate becoming a shouting match. Cuomo attacking Mamdani's attendance record in the state assembly and Mamdani going after Cuomo's actions as governor saying he screwed over NYC. Devastating. Close to home. And he lands the hit with a smile. Devastating. Close to home. And he lands the hit with a smile"
X Link 2025-10-23T00:03Z [----] followers, 296.7K engagements

"@CurtisSliwa Crazy how Sliwa and Mamdani get along better than they do with Cuomo"
X Link 2025-10-23T01:00Z [----] followers, 117.7K engagements

"@MichaelLangeNYC It's interesting how Sliwa and Mamdani really seem to get along better than they do with Cuomo. At this point if Sliwa drops out nonzero chance he endorses Mamdani lol"
X Link 2025-10-23T01:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I guess I expected Platner to be doing well but ahead by [--] points against the sitting governor is crazy. Of course with some of the new scandals the numbers might have shifted since. Whats the worst margin by which an incumbent governor has lost a primary for any office Neil Abercrombie in [----] has to be up there"
X Link 2025-10-23T12:58Z [----] followers, 52.5K engagements

"@PopCrave We should all have a friend who believes in us so much they're willing to put money on our success"
X Link 2025-10-23T18:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"This is actually crazy Democrats are taking advantage of a missed procedural step over a year ago in their attempt to redraw Virginias map mid decade. I doubt this plan was a year in the making given Texas hadnt even redistricted at that time but wow is this a clever use of a loophole. This is an epic detail re how Democrats in Virginia plan on pulling off a mid-decade redistricting which would require amending the state constitution. https://t.co/AeXq7J5Syn https://t.co/V9K39xAuHv This is an epic detail re how Democrats in Virginia plan on pulling off a mid-decade redistricting which would"
X Link 2025-10-24T20:49Z [----] followers, 151.2K engagements

"Brooklyn turnout increasing the most 👀 Compared to Day [--] of in-person early voting in [----] turnouts up 515% The largest % increases by borough: Brooklyn (+589%) Queens (+553%) Manhattan (+527%) Even with the caveat that in-person early voting was lower in [----] due to COVID still astounding turnout for Day [--] https://t.co/YRr9aGlI4p Compared to Day [--] of in-person early voting in [----] turnouts up 515% The largest % increases by borough: Brooklyn (+589%) Queens (+553%) Manhattan (+527%) Even with the caveat that in-person early voting was lower in [----] due to COVID still astounding turnout for"
X Link 2025-10-26T00:43Z [----] followers, 210.2K engagements

"As we get more robust early vote data now that satellite locations have opened in populous VA counties the markets will react accordingly to this real vote data. And so far traders dont like what theyre seeing for the GOP in Virginia Gov as Earle-Sears has dropped back to 5%. Just ran the new early vote numbers in Virginia. Its over. https://t.co/HMhjmtTIuz Just ran the new early vote numbers in Virginia. Its over. https://t.co/HMhjmtTIuz"
X Link 2025-10-26T15:42Z [----] followers, 23K engagements

"@IAPolls2022 This would be a massive overperformance in relation to the final polls in this election which showed a very tight race with the LLA leading by [--] points or less"
X Link 2025-10-27T00:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Young voters led the June primary but age 50+ voters are driving turnout now. Cuomos odds are up to 12% while Mamdanis have fallen to 87% likely based on early vote data + Suffolk poll"
X Link 2025-10-28T14:32Z [----] followers, 95.6K engagements

"@atelections I feel like this shows lots of voters have one linchpin issue in any given election and all the other personal views and issues are peripheral at that moment"
X Link 2025-10-30T05:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@IsaacDovere She still got that CIA training in her"
X Link 2025-10-30T20:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@RichPianian Wow"
X Link 2025-10-31T12:32Z [----] followers, 45.7K engagements

"@ElectsWorld Honestly given how unpopular Perus last like [--] presidents have been decent chance she gets that extra 0.13% and wins this time"
X Link 2025-10-31T18:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Wow - last Emerson college poll has Jones back in the lead. Notably theres less undecideds here showing that previously undecided voters may have in fact been shy Jones voters. Jones has surged back to 45% chance to win - its a tossup race. NEW: VIRGINIA POLL with @thehill Governor: Abigail Spanberger (D) 55% Winsome Earle-Sears (R) 44% 1% undecided Attorney General: Jay Jones (D) 49% Jason Miyares (R) 47% 4% undecided https://t.co/jk1ADCTxP9 NEW: VIRGINIA POLL with @thehill Governor: Abigail Spanberger (D) 55% Winsome Earle-Sears (R) 44% 1% undecided Attorney General: Jay Jones (D) 49% Jason"
X Link 2025-11-02T18:57Z [----] followers, 33.2K engagements

"Ive long said Florida was the state Dems should be most worried about in redistricting after Texas 3-5 Dem seats can easily be wiped away there #NEW: Florida Republican leaders supported by Trump and DeSantis are exploring redistricting to increase their congressional majority by [--] seats with GOP executive director Bill Helmich saying they should consider eliminating all Democratic seats. https://t.co/S0XiEGLVSm #NEW: Florida Republican leaders supported by Trump and DeSantis are exploring redistricting to increase their congressional majority by [--] seats with GOP executive director Bill"
X Link 2025-11-04T00:32Z [----] followers, 17.7K engagements

"Its election day in the U.S. While there are thousands of state and local elections across the country here are the key races Im tracking tonight: NYC Mayor: The three-way contest between Democrat Zohran Mamdani Republican Curtis Sliwa and independent candidate and former governor Andrew Cuomo hurtles to a close today. This race has been the most watched of this year with Mamdani upsetting Cuomo in the Dem primary and maintaining a lead throughout the general election. Polls at the end have diverged with some showing a tighter race where Sliwas decision to stay in could tip Gracie Mansion to"
X Link 2025-11-04T15:30Z [----] followers, 29.7K engagements

"Thanks to our partnership with the @AP you can now see live election results on @Kalshi as they come in right on our [----] election hub map Truly the one-stop shop for both election results and election markets"
X Link 2025-11-04T20:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@ChazNuttycombe and @StateNavigate polling in Virginia were absolutely spot on this cycle true blue wave scenario Looks like wipe out for Virginia House of Delegates Republicans Dems on track to get at least [--] seats if not more GOP had [--] seats in [----] before the elections then Now will be below [--] in second Trump era Follow @StateNavigate for all the calls Looks like wipe out for Virginia House of Delegates Republicans Dems on track to get at least [--] seats if not more GOP had [--] seats in [----] before the elections then Now will be below [--] in second Trump era Follow @StateNavigate for all"
X Link 2025-11-05T02:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@ChristianHeiens Blue tsunami Dems basically won every seat they targeted in Virginia HoD"
X Link 2025-11-05T03:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@FabioOrvil I think that accurately reflects the range of outcomes in Virginia its a blue leaning state but Republicans can still narrowly win"
X Link 2025-11-05T17:29Z [----] followers, 31.6K engagements

"@admcrlsn This is fascinating Ive never seen traders react this way to a race call before. They prob agree with you here"
X Link 2025-11-07T01:56Z [----] followers, 26.1K engagements

"@electionsjoe @thebrownsugars All the crazier given she has quite the difficult last name to spell and write"
X Link 2025-11-07T20:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@PeterTwinklage He ended up dying while giving a speech on the House floor fighting for his beliefs until the literal end"
X Link 2025-11-10T03:44Z [----] followers, 13.2K engagements

"@ElectoralEagle [--] is such a round number it provides a powerful numerical and psychological anchor despite the fact that for most of the U.S.s history we have not had a perfect number like [---] senators"
X Link 2025-11-11T19:29Z [----] followers, 20.3K engagements

"This is a key county to watch. Passaic and Paterson are both in this county and both had massive shifts to Trump in [----]. Majority Hispanic Passaic went from Biden + [--] to Trump + [--]. Meanwhile Paterson which has both substantial Muslim and Hispanic populations went from Biden +61 to Harris +28. Can the GOP hold their gains here without Trump on the ballot IN PERSON EARLY VOTE. DAY 1-3 Passaic County 2024: 🔴 [----] (38%) 🔵 [----] (32%) ⚪ [----] (30%) 2025: 🔵 [----] (42%) 🔴 [----] (40%) ⚪ [----] (18%) IN PERSON EARLY VOTE. DAY 1-3 Passaic County 2024: 🔴 [----] (38%) 🔵 [----] (32%) ⚪ [----] (30%) 2025: 🔵"
X Link 2025-10-29T03:18Z [----] followers, 45.3K engagements

"Wow #BREAKING: Kansas Republicans drop push to redraw the states congressional map https://t.co/SZGcUNMQMw #BREAKING: Kansas Republicans drop push to redraw the states congressional map https://t.co/SZGcUNMQMw"
X Link 2025-11-05T00:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"It is really funny that Virginia voters do this every [--] years: Every county in Virginia shifted blue. Every. Single. One. https://t.co/H5D5GiXy4f Every county in Virginia shifted blue. Every. Single. One. https://t.co/H5D5GiXy4f"
X Link 2025-11-05T17:18Z [----] followers, 1.1M engagements

"@USA_Polling Buttigieg setting a new personal record up from his previous best of 0%"
X Link 2025-11-10T22:34Z [----] followers, 23K engagements

"Sliwa during the debate: "Zohran your resume could fill a cocktail napkin and Andrew your failures could fill a public school library in New York City." I still do not want anything to do with you Stop glazing me. I still do not want anything to do with you Stop glazing me"
X Link 2025-10-22T23:54Z [----] followers, 2.7M engagements

"Kalshi correctly predicted the winner of every single key race this year: ✅NYC Mayor ✅ NJ Gov ✅ VA Gov ✅ VA Lieutenant Gov ✅ VA Attorney General ✅ VA House of Delegates control ✅ CA Prop [--] ✅ All [--] Pennsylvania Supreme Court elections ✅ [--] other statewide Pennsylvania court races ✅ Both statewide Georgia Public Service Commission races All while having the best (and only) map-based U.S. election trading interface with live results"
X Link 2025-11-06T15:34Z [----] followers, 1.4M engagements

"- Democratic sweep of last Tuesdays elections - Slightly brighter outlook on redistricting with Utah and Virginia - Renewed focus on Epstein - Trumps bad interview answers on cost of living and H-1B visa - Noticeable movement against GOP in generic ballot / issues polling All likely contributing to Dems surging in House control market recently. 🚨NRCC pollster show MASSIVE warning signs for Republicans🚨 For the first time in two years voters whose top priority isinflationand the economy now prefer a generic Democrat for Congress (D+13) OVER a Republican. Generic Ballot 🔵Dem: 50% 🔴GOP: 44%"
X Link 2025-11-14T15:58Z [----] followers, 50.9K engagements

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