@Woirble Avatar @Woirble Andrew Nicholls

Andrew Nicholls posts on X about $soc, the clean, debt, bank the most. They currently have [--] followers and [--] posts still getting attention that total [--] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence stocks finance countries social networks technology brands

Social topic influence $soc #78, the clean, debt, bank, sable, in the, what is, lee, soc, oil

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @esghound @dumbmuskrat @sylvain1741723 @anthony65092926 @jasonstrom @finfreedommgmt @duedillengence @baronarchimede @fasttradeking @100xcompounding @jaycrude265 @dansitz @unclefungus @cornelialake @grokandchatgpt @sonnejayy @dreds928 @mitchmo0221407 @juliekelly2 @shipwreckedcrew

Top assets mentioned Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@julie_kelly2 If Jack Smith was improperly appointed does Jack Smith have any immunity if former President Trump sues Jack Smith for his legal costs Would Jack Smith have any immunity if charged with say election interference"
X Link 2024-01-12T19:54Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@shipwreckedcrew Why were these considered "business records" Defined as "any writing or article including computer data . maintained by an enterprise for the purpose of evidencing or reflecting its condition or activity." Maintained by T Org but not reflecting "its" condition or activity"
X Link 2024-05-31T17:40Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@lee_kovarsky @gooddogbadp @gtconway3d If the Supreme Court ruled that there was no FECA violation how do you know if the jury decided on the basis of one of the other two "unlawful means" The verdict sheet did not require them to set out which one or ones they thought applied. Wouldn't a new trial be required"
X Link 2024-06-02T19:52Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Josh_Young_1 Israel is degrading Iran's air defence destroying Iran's ballistic missile launchers and depleting its ballistic missiles. The U.S. is bolstering Israel's air defence while its M.E. bases and the oil infrastructure of all the Gulf states are not being attacked. This is dumb"
X Link 2025-06-19T20:51Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Dumbmuskrat @Sylvain1741723 Grok: BOEM could grant approval of the DPP update conditional on CCC not objecting under CZMA and SBCAPCD granting air permits. Commerce Secretary could indicate intention to override CCC if they object already considered re: [----] DPP Option A. Enough for DOE loan guarantee"
X Link 2025-11-24T15:59Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Dumbmuskrat @Sylvain1741723 The EPA can revoke the delegation to SBCAPCD of authority to administer the Clean Air Act. If EPA makes decision no CEQA assessment. SBCAPCD Rules appear to require BACT on the OS&T. Management says would be within air permits. Offsets for shutting down onshore facilities"
X Link 2025-11-24T16:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Dumbmuskrat @Sylvain1741723 Isn't Sable planning to do a refinancing in Q1 [----] that will allow them to both repay Exxon and buy an OS&T That was what Sable said on the November [--] Strategic Update Call"
X Link 2025-11-26T19:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Sylvain1741723 @Dumbmuskrat On the Hunterbrook leaked audio call Flores said they were trying to arrange refinancing with JP Morgan and one of the participants (not Flores) said that with their LTV it was a "no-brainer""
X Link 2025-11-26T20:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Sylvain1741723 @Dumbmuskrat Could be a bluff but I don't think Cali will blink without BOEM approval and a federal loan guarantee which requires taking a lot of steps towards implementing the OS&T strategy. I do think Sable would pivot back to pipeline if Cali permits Flores said they would on HB call"
X Link 2025-11-27T21:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Sylvain1741723 @Dumbmuskrat When Flores said that the government was shut down and nobody could have anticipated it would last so long. On the November [--] Strategic Update Call Flores said he felt BOEM could get it done "this year". Approval conditional on CZMA consistency win + air permit maybe We'll c"
X Link 2025-11-28T02:18Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Sylvain1741723 @Dumbmuskrat If Trump admin lets California bankrupt and destroy Sable what other company is going to be willing to purchase offshore leases in California OCS and try to drill for oil. Exxon could have taken back SYU at start of [----] if they wanted but extended loan instead"
X Link 2025-11-28T13:24Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Sylvain1741723 @Dumbmuskrat Exxon has many attractive places to spend their exploration and development money. They clearly don't want to fling themselves into the woodchipper of California regulations and environmental group litigation. Plus reputational risk. Sable is the Honey Badger of oil companies"
X Link 2025-11-28T13:27Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Sylvain1741723 @Dumbmuskrat I am no expert on the new Energy Dominance Financing program under the DOE but I think the leases and platforms are likely worth a lot more than the $900000000 Exxon loan if (big if) Sable can get the permits it needs. DOE assigns value to in-kind contributions"
X Link 2025-11-29T18:01Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Sylvain1741723 @Dumbmuskrat Flores talked about JP Morgan financing with a government loan guarantee that would be used to pay off the Exxon debt and to fund OS&T pivot. Sable equity contribution would be leases platforms and cash FMV of that should easily be 20% of the total loan of $1.7 - [---] billion"
X Link 2025-11-29T18:14Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@ESGhound @HFI_Research The Consent Decree was issued by a federal court. I think any motion to amend the Consent Decree would have to be made in the same federal court. If PHMSA asserts fed jurisdiction Grok suggests that Judge Geck will lose jurisdiction Her Honor sits in a Superior Court of Cali"
X Link 2025-12-15T14:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@JasonStrom_ @ESGhound @yazeedkhatatbeh Aren't they paying Exxon a $4M/month operator fee until the permits are transferred Sable will challenge the Board of Supervisor decision"
X Link 2025-12-18T03:01Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@JasonStrom_ Sable said they were seeking federal financial support in respect of the OS&T strategy. If Sable pivots back to the pipeline do you think they can get a loan guarantee under the DOE National Energy Dominance Program for financing from a bank to take out Exxon Loan"
X Link 2025-12-18T03:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Dumbmuskrat You said that you had bought April [--] Calls. If there is a short squeeze tomorrow do you sell the calls How much are the calls likely to be impacted by the squeeze given that the shorts will have long since covered by April [--] Thanks for any advice. I have some calls too"
X Link 2025-12-18T03:23Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Lipsman @xio9240 If PHMSA approves restart before Jan [--] do you think Sable can fill the pipeline while it is bringing its motions in federal court and Judge Geck's court Or is it going to get hit with contempt of court"
X Link 2025-12-18T22:08Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@duedillengence @Dan_Sitz Do you know of any way that Sable can restart without first bringing a motion to get rid of the case before Judge Geck and/or Her Honor's preliminary injunction. If oil can flow before January [--] we get certainty that SB-237 does not apply too"
X Link 2025-12-23T23:54Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@MachiavelliCap @FastTradeKing I saw that too. "All parties acknowledge that Sable can operate without that transfer taking place but only if Exxon agrees to allow the company to operate under Exxon's existing permits." Not an expert but I thought Sable would have to sue for writ of mandate. Apparently not"
X Link 2025-12-24T14:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@FastTradeKing @JasonStrom_ Grok: Federal law (PSA) supersedes state regulation in this area via the Supremacy Clause. At contempt hearing Judge Geck would likely: 1)Dissolve the preliminary injunction 2)Dismiss the underlying case and 3)Decline to hold Sable in contempt or impose minimal/no sanctions"
X Link 2025-12-24T18:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@FastTradeKing @JasonStrom_ Relying somewhat on Grok here but I thought all the claims in the case were based on what OSFM should be doing but OSFM has now been sidelined. Sable should bring a motion to dismiss the case before Judge Geck to comply with the law . but it's Sable"
X Link 2025-12-24T18:54Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Sylvain1741723 Any chance of bank financing to take out Exxon with a loan guarantee from the DOE under the Energy Dominance Financing Program for what Flores described as the National Energy Dominance Council's No. [--] project"
X Link 2025-12-26T20:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@FinFreedomMgmt @100xCompounding @dwarf_co If Sable restarts they have said they can get bank financing to take out the Exxon loan but a DOE loan guarantee would give them a very favourable interest rate"
X Link 2025-12-28T20:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@unclefungus_ SB-237 amends the Elder California Pipeline Safety Act of [----] to require spike hydrostatic testing for the restart of a pipeline that has been idle for more than [--] years. The Elder California Pipeline Safety Act applies to interstate pipelines not interstate pipelines"
X Link 2025-12-30T19:31Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@ESGhound @CBandz40 Hi Dog I'm trying to understand your points here. What is the "order to comply with the Coastal Act" that the CCC will get In the Anderle case The CCC has the April [--] CDO and RO but my understanding is that they have said those apply only to pre-April [--] actions"
X Link 2025-12-31T04:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@100xCompounding Yes but there has to be a happy ending"
X Link 2026-01-02T23:26Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@JayCrude265 @unclefungus_ @TcheeseRa If BOEM approves the OS&T Cali government and enviro groups are going to warm to the pipeline -- they hate tankers. It also may provide another basis on which DOE can provide a loan guarantee under the Energy Dominance Financing Program = refinancing at lower interest rate"
X Link 2026-01-03T22:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@JayCrude265 Haven't they already restarted"
X Link 2026-01-05T00:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Dan_Sitz @JayCrude265 "Juan Carlos Posadas" claims it restarted Dec [--]. I saw another X post that claimed pollutants were up and suggested it was evidence of restart. A few commenters have speculated they probably restarted on December [--] or [--] to beat SB-237. Fingers crossed for a Form 8-k tomorrow"
X Link 2026-01-05T03:06Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@CorneliaLake Not sure if this is the same Anon but there was an Anon that posted snippets of the Hunterbrook leaked audio before the whole thing was released. I think Jeff Lipsman posted he must be connected to/part of Hunterbrook. HB may have a source at CCC. Or he's lying"
X Link 2026-01-05T16:47Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@CorneliaLake I spoke to a "Headquarters Enforcement Counsel" (job title) at CCC about [--] months ago and she said that the CCC considered a Sable restart to be "development". She did not describe the legal basis for that"
X Link 2026-01-05T16:51Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@grokandchatgpt The Anderle case does not prohibit restart. The motion before Judge Geck will be heard on February [--] not in April. The Ninth Circuit did not prohibit restart. PHMSA approved restart under the Consent Decree. Arguments that SB-237 does not apply"
X Link 2026-01-12T23:16Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@duedillengence @BaronArchimede @sonnejayy @grokandchatgpt Grok says that it is more difficult to get a loan than a loan guarantee from the DOE. But if they get a loan guarantee it eliminates any risk and the banks should be happy to refinance the Exxon debt and lend them funds to operate until restart at a very low interest rate"
X Link 2026-01-13T14:55Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@100xCompounding You have reach. Would you please consider reposting Administrator Lee Zeldin's post from yesterday. He links a Washington Examiner article reporting a change to the rules under the Clean Water Act to prevent blue states blocking pipelines using the Act. Likely Sable related"
X Link 2026-01-14T14:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@JasonStrom_ Did you see EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin's post from yesterday He links a Washington Examiner article reporting a change to the rules under the Clean Water Act to prevent blue states blocking pipelines using the Clean Water Act. Likely Sable related"
X Link 2026-01-14T14:13Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@ESGhound Hi Dog You previously suggested that the Clean Water Act could be used to block Sable's pipeline. The Washington Examiner said that the EPA is amending the rules in respect of the Clean Water Act to prevent the use of the Act to block pipelines. What is your legal thesis here"
X Link 2026-01-14T15:01Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@duedillengence @sonnejayy Isn't Sable already paying Exxon $4 million a month for operating under Exxon's permits and also paying Exxon's legal costs of appealing the permit transfer decision"
X Link 2026-01-14T18:56Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@DReds928 @Anthony65092926 possible catalysts hitting now/very soon: -BOEM approval of October [--] DPP update adding OS&T (pipeline looks better) -amendment to CZMA regs Commerce Secretary can override CCC without having to wait for CCC objection. -DOE conditional commitment to provide refi loan guarantee"
X Link 2026-01-15T05:11Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@DReds928 @Anthony65092926 $soc Flores said Sable was seeking federal financing on Oct. [--] (Hunterbrook) and Nov. [--] Strategic Update call. Grok estimates that DOE could already have provided a conditional commitment to provide a loan guarantee for refinancing under the Energy Dominance Financing Program"
X Link 2026-01-15T13:47Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@BaronArchimede $soc My understanding is that Jeffrey Dintzer was asked whether oil was flowing through the pipeline and he said "No.". Grok says "flowing through" means oil being delivered at Pentland. You're assuming that Sable didn't fill the pipeline to avoid the application of SB-237"
X Link 2026-01-15T14:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@BaronArchimede $soc You can argue that is not a restart complying with Judge Geck's preliminary injunction but if so the pipeline is likely no longer idle inactive or out of service"
X Link 2026-01-15T14:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@ESGhound Hi Dog Wanted to get your view. What if Sable sold the onshore pipelines to the federal government in exchange for $1 and a long-term agreement permitting transport of Sable's oil for a fee or pipeline maintenance or both Exxon didn't own the pipelines when SYU was producing"
X Link 2026-01-20T16:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@hntrbrkmedia Did you see the Santa Barbara Independent article which reported that the Board of Supervisors said they can't block restart if Sable can use Exxon's permits"
X Link 2026-01-23T17:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@duedillengence @HowieDennison @BaronArchimede Flores said they were looking for a bank loan guaranteed by the federal government supposed to be faster to get than loan. According to Upstream Online Sable is looking at purchasing "Western Isles" a FPSO in the UK. Would need $$$. May have conditional commitment from DOE"
X Link 2026-01-25T20:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@ESGhound Grok: Sable applied for a DOE loan guarantee after completing all pipeline repairs/upgrades financing to enable restart of existing pipeline. The DOE would likely have conducted a limited NEPA review in the form of a Categorical Exclusion (CX) determination. Your thoughts"
X Link 2026-01-27T02:19Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@ESGhound I'll have a look at the statute. Could the Trump DOE just have rammed it through though"
X Link 2026-01-27T04:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@ESGhound Hi Dog Aren't you somewhat concerned about a possible loan guarantee from the DOE under the Energy Dominance Financing Program in conjunction with a refinancing of the Exxon debt It would give Sable a lot of runway"
X Link 2026-01-26T16:59Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@ESGhound Grok: The NEPA review starts when the due diligence step of the process begins. Grok: If the NEPA review is conducted as a Categorical Exemption there is no public review. Shouldn't due diligence have begun some time ago (assuming application accepted) Yet no NEPA announcement"
X Link 2026-01-27T04:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@ESGhound section [---] of DOE Implementing Procedures June [--] [----] (a) DOE shall analyze only those reasonably foreseeable environmental effects that have a reasonably close causal relationship to the proposed agency action and alternatives"
X Link 2026-01-28T04:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@ESGhound (d) Project Costs do not include: . (7) Expenses incurred after startup commissioning and shakedown of the facility. ; . (9) Operating costs. The Las Flores Pipeline has not restarted yet. Arguably Sable should not be considered to be operating yet"
X Link 2026-01-28T15:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@ESGhound $soc See above discussion of possible loan guarantee from DOE Energy Dominance Financing Program with Mean Law Dog. I am not an expert. I would welcome polite comments discussing the law"
X Link 2026-01-28T15:53Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@FinFreedomMgmt @Anthony65092926 Do you think a loan guarantee from the DOE is ruled out Flores said they were trying to get a loan guarantee to finance the acquisition of the OS&T and refinance the Exxon loan. I had expected the government to be very supportive"
X Link 2026-02-04T01:49Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Anthony65092926 @FinFreedomMgmt Judge Geck: The trial courts consider two interrelated questions in deciding whether to issue a preliminary injunction: 1) are the plaintiffs likely to suffer greater injury from a denial of the injunction than the defendants are likely to suffer from its grant; continued"
X Link 2026-02-04T05:55Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Anthony65092926 @FinFreedomMgmt and 2) is there a reasonable probability that the plaintiffs will prevail on the merits. There were [--] bases on which the plaintiffs were attacking the state waivers issued by OSFM. Judge Geck held that only one had a reasonable probability of success continued"
X Link 2026-02-04T06:09Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@FinFreedomMgmt @Anthony65092926 I had a possibly dumb idea. What if Sable sold the onshore segments of the Las Flores Pipeline to the federal government for $1 and a long-term contract permitting Sable to use and requiring Sable to maintain the pipeline Exxon never owned it when the SYU was producing"
X Link 2026-02-04T14:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@ESGhound @MitchMo0221407 Trump admin could amend [--] CFR [-------] to delete "Secretarial review shall only be initiated after the completion of State agency review pursuant to the relevant subpart". I think that would mean no federal consistency review at the CCC"
X Link 2026-02-12T23:33Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@ESGhound @MitchMo0221407 EPA could determine that the SBCAPCD no longer meets the requirements for delegation set forth at [--] CFR section 55.11(b)(1-4) and revoke the [----] delegation of authority to administer the Clean Air Act within [--] miles of Cali coast"
X Link 2026-02-12T23:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@ESGhound Grok- States generally cannot regulate federally owned infrastructure without express congressional consent due to federal pre-emption and supremacy. No authority to impose permitting safety or operational requirements that conflict with federal law or hinder federal objectives"
X Link 2026-02-13T19:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@ESGhound $SOC Wonder if they are talking about DOE possibly buying the onshore pipeline segments for a nominal amount and a long-term contract with Sable that permits transport of oil but requires Sable to operate and maintain pipeline. DOE owns some SPR pipelines operated by private co"
X Link 2026-02-13T16:18Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@ESGhound $SOC Grok: Supremacy Clause -- If the federal government acquired the onshore segments any attempt to apply or enforce Judge Geck's preliminary injunction against it would likely be removed to federal court and dismissed on immunity grounds"
X Link 2026-02-13T19:14Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@ESGhound but this compliance is enforced through federal mechanisms (e.g. by the EPA) not direct state oversight or enforcement. This should mean no CEQA assessments Existing air permits (pumping stations) should transfer with title"
X Link 2026-02-13T19:22Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@ESGhound $SOC Dog What state law do you think would apply and block pipeline restart"
X Link 2026-02-13T19:24Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

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