@WillManidis Will Manidis

Will Manidis posts on X about if you, money, ai, in the the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [---------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

Engagements: [---------] #

Mentions: [--] #

Followers: [-------] #

CreatorRank: [------] #

Social Influence

Social category influence finance #6858 technology brands social networks countries stocks travel destinations #5568 vc firms currencies automotive brands celebrities

Social topic influence if you, money, ai, in the, history, the world #1989, open ai, twitter, has been, business

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @tbpn @tszzl @patrickoshag @pratyushbuddiga @jeremygiffon @chakravidhi @paddycosgrave @almostcmb @ilyasu @a16z @harrystebbings @beuysaunt @nabeelqu @zebulgar @antoniogm @shaunmmaguire @pmarca @yrechtman @nchirls @elonmusk

Top assets mentioned Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Bitcoin (BTC) Dell Technologies, Inc. (DELL)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"in the last few months i've started a practice of walking for [--] hours a day-- back and forth to work and after dinner for a bit often while taking calls. I feel so much happier healthier and more alive. this is wild"
X Link 2019-08-05T20:24Z 99.8K followers, [---] engagements

"linkedin is criminally undervalued"
X Link 2019-08-20T15:27Z 86.3K followers, [---] engagements

"@dril_gpt2 gpt2 has gone too far"
X Link 2019-12-23T21:39Z 94.9K followers, [--] engagements

"little girl: "santa they say you're always watching how do you do that" santa: "with the palantir platform i have no limits on the generation of intelligence""
X Link 2019-12-25T20:45Z 70.9K followers, [---] engagements

"@vcstarterkit isnt this just the default outcome"
X Link 2020-01-06T13:17Z 99.8K followers, [--] engagements

""Instead we have the endless hellscape of the casual polymath. . The world of atomized content through hyper-specialization isnt a stable equilibrium. We are all casual polymaths now." (via MR) https://applieddivinitystudies.com/2020/09/28/polymath/ https://applieddivinitystudies.com/2020/09/28/polymath/"
X Link 2020-10-15T13:22Z 70.5K followers, [--] engagements

"@zebulgar @TurnerNovak Was in at four likes will happily sell you my allocation"
X Link 2020-10-20T01:39Z 99.8K followers, [--] engagements

"the vast majority of pre-seed funds will demand much more equity and be much less useful than a small well connected angel investor"
X Link 2021-08-19T13:42Z 70.4K followers, [--] engagements

"@GritGrowthCap global founders capital will love this"
X Link 2021-09-09T00:24Z 73.2K followers, [--] engagements

"@shaig this data feels wildly incorrect. you're getting weird ranking effects for funds that disclose more (gaingels) and sparse data for mega funds (YC)"
X Link 2022-01-03T18:45Z 80.3K followers, [--] engagements

"in rural America dispensaries are now seemingly 10x more common than coffee shops The transition from stimulant to depressant economy in our industrial base is the greatest red flag"
X Link 2022-01-20T19:21Z 78K followers, [----] engagements

"the current state of healthcare data is windows xp apps being demod in virtual machines to execs with billions of dollars in purchasing power and technology that couldnt load a jpeg. its impossible to see how theres not a thousand plus billion dollar outcomes to be built"
X Link 2022-03-16T19:08Z 81K followers, [---] engagements

"fujifilm colors in sf"
X Link 2022-03-24T14:18Z 86.5K followers, [--] engagements

"which venture funds if any do you think have had someone killed"
X Link 2022-04-11T21:57Z 78.6K followers, [----] engagements

"January [--] 2022: link between MS and EBS established April [--] 2022: trials begin on the mechanism A small trial has shown that transplanting immune cells that target Epstein-Barr virus can reduce or reverse the progression of multiple sclerosis. https://t.co/t1OBwWB0xl A small trial has shown that transplanting immune cells that target Epstein-Barr virus can reduce or reverse the progression of multiple sclerosis. https://t.co/t1OBwWB0xl"
X Link 2022-04-12T19:18Z 70.3K followers, [--] engagements

"as an angel investor you have one job to not make the success or the failure of the company about you"
X Link 2022-04-13T00:52Z 70.6K followers, [---] engagements

"first board meeting after three mfers with substacks lead your series b in December"
X Link 2022-05-20T21:47Z 70.5K followers, [---] engagements

"inflation cant touch you if you spend 100% of your income"
X Link 2022-06-11T18:59Z 99.8K followers, [---] engagements

"google ethicists: laMDA is another step in a long line of machines that experience complex emotions"
X Link 2022-06-12T20:46Z 70.5K followers, [--] engagements

"wiz just went from $1m to $100m in [--] months no free trial no PLG no pay as you go. a big clunky enterprise sales process when well tuned is an amazing thing to watch"
X Link 2022-08-11T00:13Z 70.3K followers, [---] engagements

"in the rust belt new dispensaries are now seemingly 10x more common than coffee shops The transition from stimulant to depressant economy in our industrial base is a huge red flag"
X Link 2022-09-15T12:25Z 78K followers, [----] engagements

"asking stable diffusion to generate the last image ever"
X Link 2022-09-18T14:51Z 70.5K followers, [--] engagements

"ok now you essentially have rebuilt IRS level audibility into decentralized currencies in just a few years. your great power adversaries are significantly weakened. total cost a few billion and a sports stadium sponsorship"
X Link 2022-09-21T13:01Z 90.9K followers, [---] engagements

"when did we all decide the only acceptable language was hr speak. you aren't circling back for brunch disclosing your discomfort aligning expectations with your partner rightsizing your apartment balancing expectations. talk like a human being"
X Link 2023-01-19T19:38Z 78.8K followers, 81.6K engagements

"this recession is going to make clear how many "great companies" were actually just arbitrages. many "great startups" were just subsidizing selling high cost items for below with cheap venture dollars. now those venture dollars are gone these markets disappear"
X Link 2023-02-03T17:09Z 83.1K followers, 36.4K engagements

"vanderbilt's DEI office got caught using chatgpt to generate a nonsensical email about the Michigan shootings which was sent to the entire student body. automation has come for the woke bureaucracy https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/pocharaponneammanee/vanderbilt-email-chatgpt-ai-msu-shooting https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/pocharaponneammanee/vanderbilt-email-chatgpt-ai-msu-shooting"
X Link 2023-02-21T20:27Z 70.6K followers, 44.6K engagements

"After a four years of bombings and arson CLODO disappeared without a trace. Despite repeated government investigations a single member was never identified. Left without a choice computer corporations moved out of the city to suburbs. a precursor to todays technology parks"
X Link 2023-02-27T14:30Z 70.6K followers, [----] engagements

"CLODO's final attack was three years before IBM released the first personal computer. but their critiques have clear echos today in the deccel and even AI alignment communities. How far are we from seeing similar attacks on GPU farms in the US"
X Link 2023-02-27T14:30Z 70.8K followers, 11.9K engagements

"the "center for effective altruism" got caught using $4m of FTX stolen funds to buy a literal castle lol the scale of this grift is unbelievable https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahemerson/2023/02/28/effective-altruism-linked-group-used-millions-donated-by-ftx-to-buy-a-czech-castle/sh=3dd48c766baf https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahemerson/2023/02/28/effective-altruism-linked-group-used-millions-donated-by-ftx-to-buy-a-czech-castle/sh=3dd48c766baf"
X Link 2023-02-28T15:52Z 70.5K followers, 30.6K engagements

"the father of ai safety wants his unelected group of ethicist friends to be able to firebomb you out of existence for training a machine learning model this isnt new they are authoritarians they always have been"
X Link 2023-03-30T01:22Z 77.9K followers, 53.2K engagements

"youve gotta stop angel investing you need to be slowly accumulating huge positions in 2-3 businesses run by you or your close associates. you cant index fund success youve gotta go all in life isnt about owning a small piece of the pie its about eating the whole thing"
X Link 2023-04-05T13:47Z 70.9K followers, 93.1K engagements

"now you're going to buy one. just use an SBA loan or something idk plenty of other people on twitter can teach you how to do that. thats the easy part you'll probably pay a single digit multiple of ebitda you can't even buy a studio in new york for the price you'll pay"
X Link 2023-04-10T13:30Z 76.9K followers, [----] engagements

"next-- this is the hard part-- you do not change a single thing about how that business operates in year one. go to every single customer buy them dinner shake their hands learn their kids names. and slowly slowly introduce technology products to your inhouse team"
X Link 2023-04-10T13:30Z 76.7K followers, [----] engagements

"@buccocapital guys theres a strict no fighting rule at the all in summit"
X Link 2023-05-06T14:34Z 77.5K followers, [----] engagements

"its crazy that like 15% of big vc fund partners at are like cartoon villain levels of evil and if you ask founders theyre like yep he murdered my cfo and then sued me because I missed coffee but when you talk to LPs theyre like great guy well give him 2b"
X Link 2023-05-17T20:12Z 57.7K followers, 161.9K engagements

"@tolstoybb the low iq conclusion is that better synthetic media wont actually matter for fake news because people are already ready to fall for dalle-1 quality generation and it has barely changed how we live our lives"
X Link 2023-05-22T14:24Z 64K followers, [---] engagements

"@bryan_johnson you cannot be serious with the blood boy stuff come on man make it the demonism less obvious"
X Link 2023-05-22T15:15Z 94K followers, [----] engagements

"@Suhail what no one will tell you is you dont need any of this shit its just overly complicated notation just read the implementations"
X Link 2023-05-24T16:42Z 59K followers, [----] engagements

"absurd to think about how much vertical software has been painstakingly built for healthcare over the last decade only to be made obsolete by simply embedding documents and querying a vector database. patient matching trial selection and q&a are all embeddings"
X Link 2023-06-08T13:18Z 62.7K followers, [---] engagements

"@antoniogm the great impact of AI will be increasing the amount of management fees growth investors can collect with limited dilligence"
X Link 2023-06-15T22:16Z 62.4K followers, [----] engagements

"If true: - Most foundation models have reached a plateau in terms of scaling laws. - Regulation/safety are cynical attempts to delay others from catching up. - Winning from this point forward is not about scale but about cloud optimization massive rlhf and niche data"
X Link 2023-06-22T13:34Z 62.4K followers, 22.2K engagements

"@FrancisSuarez mayor suarez this is a family fun run no one is keeping time"
X Link 2023-07-04T17:52Z 62.5K followers, 16.9K engagements

"the only way to fix a python instillation is to buy a new laptop"
X Link 2023-07-10T22:35Z 62.4K followers, 50.7K engagements

"@auren first to go if someone presses the red button"
X Link 2023-07-12T23:49Z 57.4K followers, [----] engagements

"We believe that LLMs are the key to unlocking healthcare's unstructured data problem with 80% of patient information living in unstructured text LLMs provide the first realistic solution to sort parse and make sense of this data. but foundation models alone won't solve this"
X Link 2023-07-18T20:55Z 62.5K followers, [----] engagements

"healthcare will need an entire AI stack: [--]. Application logic (langchain llamaindex) -- to build business/clinical logic [--]. Domain specific Embeddings (science) -- to capture and encode knowledge [--]. Vector DBs (chroma) -- as memory and grounding for models"
X Link 2023-07-18T20:55Z 62.5K followers, [--] engagements

"the tiger global memo is like q anon for sagaponack residents"
X Link 2023-08-25T21:27Z 57.4K followers, 29.4K engagements

"To prevent losing the thousands I accidentally contributed to my FSA I signed up for the eight-month waiting list to get a spot. The appointment begins months before you arrive with a set of intake surveys designed to match your health concerns to a battery of possible appt"
X Link 2023-08-29T13:30Z 57.4K followers, 278.6K engagements

"From this intake they curate an onsite agenda. In my case three twelve-hour days of specialist appointments and tests. the schedule addresses both your stated concerns and includes an exhaustive panel hand-built to detect and address concerns appropriate for your age"
X Link 2023-08-29T13:30Z 57.7K followers, 271.8K engagements

"I received my 6-page schedule a few weeks before I was set to fly out. The concierge called to make sure I had no additional concerns helped me book a local hotel arranged transport from the airport and even offered to assist with dinner and entertainment reservations"
X Link 2023-08-29T13:30Z 62.5K followers, 245.4K engagements

"On arrival the visit could not be more unlike a normal hospital visit. You are escorted to the "Executive Health Center" - a luxury WeWork-like space with Wi-Fi a free catered kitchen and call rooms so you can work while onsite. This will be your home base during the visit"
X Link 2023-08-29T13:30Z 57K followers, 245.3K engagements

"The experience is a bit of a whirlwindmine involved blood tests peeing in cups imaging dermatology workups a half a dozen hours of PT a full eye and hearing exam and a cardiac test that has you running on a treadmill with all manner of wires attached"
X Link 2023-08-29T13:30Z 62.4K followers, 226.7K engagements

"Each appointment was similar to the kind of care you'd receive anywhere in any other hospital but each was delivered without rush beginning exactly on time with the kindest doctor you've ever met. Any concerns raised could yield a same-day follow-up not a many-month wait"
X Link 2023-08-29T13:30Z 62.4K followers, 215K engagements

"Your visit is bookended by two 60-minute sit-downs with your new primary care provider to delve into in exacting detail your care roadmap and any recommended interventions. My provider was kind extremely willing to indulge my weird questions and very thorough"
X Link 2023-08-29T13:30Z 62.4K followers, 205.9K engagements

"I got the results I largely expectedmy chronic stuff was well managed. I should probably do more cardio and find ways to lower my stress. I was also reminded repeatedly that I should pay less attention to Ray Peat I walked away with incredible comfort knowing all was okay"
X Link 2023-08-29T13:30Z 62.5K followers, 211.1K engagements

"I walked away believing that executive physicals are the most obvious sign of what is to come for our healthcare system. Middle/upper-class patients are opting out of the system entirely replacing it with cash pay for as-needed services to "enhance and optimize" their health"
X Link 2023-08-29T13:30Z 62.5K followers, 208.1K engagements

"This leaves our normal healthcare system in the duststruggling with access cost of care and increasingly burnt-out providers. More patients leaving this system en masse for an even more inaccessible level of care is perhaps unavoidable but it's a disaster waiting to happen"
X Link 2023-08-29T13:30Z 57K followers, 189.2K engagements

"This style of care is not without critique either. The effectiveness of executive physicals seems at best unclear with plenty of literature calling into question all manner of risks from over-detection to just poorly constructed visits at many sites"
X Link 2023-08-29T13:30Z 62.7K followers, 183.4K engagements

"Services like Prenuvo have offered a more tech-enabled vision of the same services centered around services previously unheard of in healthy patients like full body MRIsthat have much more nebulous outcome data and are growing at incredible rates"
X Link 2023-08-29T13:30Z 62.5K followers, 116.8K engagements

"None of the folks I met were Fortune [---] executivessure many were well-offbut most were not. Many were normal people spending huge percentages of their income and flying across the country to receive a quality of healthcare they feel has been gutted elsewhere"
X Link 2023-08-29T13:30Z 62.4K followers, 192K engagements

"Ultimately what an executive physical provides is a five-thousand-dollar ticket to having the world's top medical experts tell you that it's all going to be okay. A level of personal comfort and security with your health that is available no where else"
X Link 2023-08-29T13:30Z 58.5K followers, 124.5K engagements

"@chamath they're all kind of mid if you're already in good health / take care of yourself i think really they're built to lower the tail risk of the [--] year old overweight exec with lifestyle factors from dropping over dead"
X Link 2023-08-29T17:49Z 70.7K followers, 81.6K engagements

"LLM spend feels exactly like how people used to treat data warehousing spend zero discretion zero deduplication just cranking massive volume these businesses all decelerate at scale when everyone realizes they are money pits"
X Link 2023-08-31T18:58Z 62.7K followers, [----] engagements

"the real secret of venture capital is if you exclusively invest in businesses that are impossible to mark to market things without comps weird deep tech basically occult software anything without ARR no one can ever tell if youre good or not before you retire"
X Link 2023-09-05T18:53Z 62.5K followers, 24.8K engagements

"@eringriffith they have like . half a billion on balance sheet a random series b startup could buy that runway for a penny on the dollar"
X Link 2023-09-06T19:58Z 62.4K followers, [----] engagements

"the hardest lesson to learn is the more public someone is with their charity and ethics the more likely that person is a demon on the inside"
X Link 2023-09-07T12:53Z 62.5K followers, 36.8K engagements

"NYC is going the way of Chicago second tier in every meaningful sense. Cincinnati is better as a global city / financial center Sedona has a stronger creative scene and Fort Worth is 10x better for technologists. When not in EU Ill be spending more time in Tulsa"
X Link 2023-09-12T23:20Z 62.4K followers, 369K engagements

"Norton Commons is the most underappreciated development project of the last few decades. A hyper-walkable basically car free traditional community built in the middle of Kentucky in [----] No venture funding no twitter threads on vitality. They simply chose to build well"
X Link 2023-09-13T13:30Z 62.7K followers, 456.6K engagements

"Norton Commons is in Prospect-- a farming community roughly [--] miles west of Louisville. The land was originally a family farm owned by the Norton Trust. Mary Shands inherited the farmland in [----] and wanted to preserve the rural character of the land"
X Link 2023-09-13T13:30Z 62.4K followers, [--] engagements

"Enter Charles Osborn III a Baptist preacher from Texas that left the church to found houseboat manufacturer Kings Craft He ultimately would settle in Louisville and open a sports club and senior care facility before becoming obsessed with the idea of New Urbanism"
X Link 2023-09-13T13:30Z 62.1K followers, [----] engagements

"New Urbanism emerged in the 1980s as a response to increased suburban sprawl and isolation-- building walkable mixed-use communities that promote interaction among residents. this is the same set of ideas that lead to current techno-utopian versions like "praxis" or "culdesac""
X Link 2023-09-13T13:30Z 57.6K followers, [---] engagements

"There is no great founding story with Norton Commons-- if you google the place its basically impossible to find a history let alone who founded it. I had to dig through obituaries and the internet archives to even piece this much together. There was no great founding moment"
X Link 2023-09-13T13:30Z 58.5K followers, [--] engagements

"Every charter city has too much capital and too little conviction The answer to building a new place isn't hidden in culture (even milady raves) weird new capital structures (even a NFT) or even new industries. you can walk into a field and just get building"
X Link 2023-09-13T13:30Z 62.7K followers, [----] engagements

"@Starterup2 Most initially sold for 2-300k you can still grab something for 500-ish. The newest ones are 1m+ but thats a very recent change"
X Link 2023-09-13T13:39Z 62.4K followers, [----] engagements

"founder of $6m company: we are redefining employee experience-- we shorten the connection between dreams and manifestation for the enterprise" founder of $2b company: its just a slack clone but its fedramp compliant. sorry for the zoom problems the jet has bad wifi""
X Link 2023-09-18T14:13Z 57.4K followers, 146.9K engagements

"crazy that the massive wave of nicotine use as a performance drug is entirely underreported/ignored talked a resident at a top medical school day he estimates that 60% of his peers are using zyns daily --"Everyone in my class uses nicotine in some form its table stakes""
X Link 2023-09-19T12:57Z 68.5K followers, 1M engagements

"to clarify my rapid nicotine posting. I'm not a large fan of the drug I'm certainly not trying to shill it it just seems like the endemic waves of totally accepted addiction to 1) adderall 2) weed are starting to rapidly unwind and there's a question of "what next" for many"
X Link 2023-09-19T18:41Z 57.4K followers, 38.7K engagements

"were within striking distance of having basically free physician quality artificial intelligence and the most interesting question the industry can ask is how can this automate the fax machine"
X Link 2023-09-20T21:09Z 62.8K followers, 32.5K engagements

"sf tech bros will move to new york and invite six cal grads who work at palantir to their east village rooftop and be like i love this citys energy"
X Link 2023-09-22T18:29Z 59K followers, 643.7K engagements

"if you want to understand how foundation models will be funded look at drug development tiny companies will discover and test techniques at small scale massive co's will buy them fund the most expensive stages of development and scale their commercial functions post launch"
X Link 2023-09-26T13:28Z 62.5K followers, 31K engagements

"deals like aws/anthropic are insane for tech but look exactly like every biotech success ex: pharmacyclics develops blood cancer drug with $25m in funding shows promise in early clinical trials sells to AbbVie for 21B in [----] approved by FDA that year sales rapidly hit $5B"
X Link 2023-09-26T13:28Z 62.4K followers, [----] engagements

"@nic__carter Theres good academic work on the opposite poisoning datasets. https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.10149 https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.10149"
X Link 2023-09-27T03:43Z 70.9K followers, [---] engagements

"no one is prepared to regulate forms of care that were historically unregulated because they were provided by a community but are now massively scalable because of the leverage that LLMs give. this will be a mess to untangle"
X Link 2023-09-27T13:00Z 56.9K followers, [----] engagements

"@sama wifi connection has been achieved internally"
X Link 2023-09-27T17:43Z 56.9K followers, 21.1K engagements

"venture capital is a one way wealth transfer between pension funds and billboards no one sees in times square"
X Link 2023-09-28T21:09Z 62.5K followers, 55.1K engagements

"has mr beast gone too far"
X Link 2023-09-30T13:48Z 63.1K followers, 15.7K engagements

"im sorry but all of the intellectuals trying to dunk on the vegas orb are absolute losers. ive seen the Eiffel Tower the Sistine chapel the london eye none of it none of it even comes close to the beauty of the giant dumb led orb. not even close"
X Link 2023-10-01T19:14Z 57.4K followers, 453K engagements

"Last year the average employer-sponsored premium for individual health insurance was $7000. For a family it reached $22463. if anyone understood that 40-50% of their cost to employ came from benefits they rarely use and how much directly hits wages there would be riots"
X Link 2023-10-02T13:02Z 70.6K followers, 210.3K engagements

"@ntkris @gokulr late stage: databricks early stage:"
X Link 2023-10-02T15:12Z 62.4K followers, [---] engagements

"i don't think it will ever be normal/ok to record 100% of your conversations to play back later with perfect recall I don't think anyone wants this at all. yet every single AI hardware product is chasing this"
X Link 2023-10-02T23:22Z 62.5K followers, 252.8K engagements

"I pulled data on [-----] LEGO releases since the year [----]. I dropped any promotional items duplicate items or any other oddballs. This got me down to 10k or so. For each I then pulled in resell data from bricklink for each item to get current market price (ebay prices higher)"
X Link 2023-10-03T12:55Z 57K followers, 81.8K engagements

"This allowed me to calculate a net IRR assuming you bought it at release and held it until [----]. The VC benchmark data is sourced from the Cambridge Associates recent years are iffy because of extreme paper markups (30%+ mean IRR). The data seems best through 2010/2015"
X Link 2023-10-03T12:55Z 57.7K followers, 12.5K engagements

"In most years random purchasing rivaled the returns of the median venture fund. If you just blindly bought certain themes you can consistently generate double digit IRR across all vintages. For most resale was high enough at EOY1 that these strategies would be obvious"
X Link 2023-10-03T12:56Z 57.7K followers, 11K engagements

"Dollar value and piece count seem to have less effect on present resale value. But other strategies seem possible. Applying modest statistical methods on like two years of data leads to finding strategies producing 20%+ irr over 10y+"
X Link 2023-10-03T12:56Z 62.6K followers, 27.3K engagements

"the world of super alternative assets is hilariously vast and probably deeply unexplored. there are paths towards transcendence (a hamptons compound w/ a [----] Land Rover Series III) that involve deploying capital at things other than b2b software"
X Link 2023-10-03T12:56Z 62.4K followers, 26.5K engagements

"@chamath if you gave me half a billion dollars i think i could deploy it"
X Link 2023-10-03T17:35Z 62.4K followers, 39.2K engagements

"very limited supply on the best names basically infinite willingness to pay from a small set of buyers. Price discovery is hard/centralized in a few marketplaces with stupidly high transaction costs. This is what venture looked like in the 80s and those guys did alright. with even $100m bankroll you could control basically all liquidity on the highest quality assets and price set however you want. just buy in massive blocks the demand is there. secondary market volume per year is 80% of current revenues from the company (8-9b)"
X Link 2023-10-03T17:54Z 62.4K followers, 13.7K engagements

"lessons from this tweet: [--]. crazy how many people without AUM are concerned about this scaling in AUM [--]. crazy how low people think venture transaction costs are"
X Link 2023-10-03T19:08Z 57.2K followers, 42.3K engagements

"If the current growth rates continue there will be more illegal weed bodegas in NYC than people by the end of [----]. 2022: [--] known to the city officially 2023: [----] 2024: [------] (projected) [----] [---------] (projected)"
X Link 2023-10-04T12:30Z 62.4K followers, 10.9K engagements

"one of the best decisions we ever made as a company was renting way too much office space during Covid and then allowing customers to come in and work out of it. Stupidly easy way to get the best real time feedback in the world"
X Link 2023-10-04T18:01Z 62.5K followers, 72K engagements

"@natfriedman this will either be the most important discovery of original manuscripts since the Dead Sea scrolls or incalculable amounts of Pompeii pornography no middle ground"
X Link 2023-10-04T20:15Z 61.8K followers, [----] engagements

"When I posted about how buying LEGO sets randomly would outperform many venture capitalists you all had the same question. "Is there enough liquidity" I did the math and the LEGO secondary market is of similar scale if not greater scale than some national economies"
X Link 2023-10-09T13:30Z 67.4K followers, 356.8K engagements

"tl;dr we found buying LEGO durably produce 10%+ IRR. Top decile sets will return 30%+ constantly over a decade confusingly it is easy to predict these IRR drivers. ex: sets that appreciate in year n-2 are likely to hold that IRR for years representing basically free annuities"
X Link 2023-10-09T13:30Z 62.5K followers, 13K engagements

"Plenty of you were willing to point out reasons why this might be the case. Storage is expensive shipping probably sucks as does actually running a store. Many believed these strategies were worthless because the market is tiny and you couldn't scale enough. Let's do the math"
X Link 2023-10-09T13:30Z 62.4K followers, [----] engagements

"I exclusively focused on Bricklink. A [--] year old fan created secondary market now owned by LEGO itself. While Bricklink is a fraction of total secondhand volume it has incredible historical pricing and volume data and is easy to access at least for recent time periods"
X Link 2023-10-09T13:30Z 57.7K followers, [----] engagements

"I scraped over four million transactions and offers from the platform. Our original IRR math only involves sealed sets but for the sake of completeness I pulled parts and minifigures as well. Bricklink by my estimate is $300m GMV annually and has a catalog value of over $100m"
X Link 2023-10-09T13:30Z 56.9K followers, [----] engagements

"Bricklink is not the highest volume platform for selling sealed sets (90% of GMV comes from loose parts). Back of the napkin math from this data puts the total secondhand market size at a few billion annually a significant fraction of the companies $9b first party revenue"
X Link 2023-10-09T13:30Z 62.5K followers, 12.4K engagements

"This suggests you could easily move tens of millions if not hundreds of millions of dollar of volume in this market. Certainly not the scale of venture capital but you can make some money here"
X Link 2023-10-09T13:30Z 56.9K followers, 11.7K engagements

"@blofeldernst1 Redid the IRR calculation with their fees and it was a rounding error difference"
X Link 2023-10-09T15:18Z 57.7K followers, [----] engagements

"@sampullara apples and oranges"
X Link 2023-10-09T21:44Z 57K followers, [----] engagements

"incredible that every consumer company can now blame missing earnings on GLP1s a drug that basically only exists in a tiny segment of cash pay patients that are otherwise entirely price insensitive"
X Link 2023-10-10T12:06Z 70K followers, 17.6K engagements

"it was a mistake to write off the last [--] years of radical anti-Zionism on campuses as a juvenile thing that theyll grow out of the rhetoric was always different it was always about finding a pretense for genocide. and we allowed every elite institution to play host"
X Link 2023-10-10T21:07Z 62.4K followers, 33.4K engagements

"If you want to fix your life just stop treating it like an index fund. every decision you make you should be all in on. dont spread your bets the kingdom of heaven isnt achieved through diversification"
X Link 2023-10-11T13:16Z 57.4K followers, 313.5K engagements

"you should be systemically destroying optionality every door you don't take you should slam shut every bet you make should kill you if you lose it think about anthropic leverage you don't want to be alive to see a world that isn't the one you bet on"
X Link 2023-10-11T13:42Z 62.5K followers, 31.7K engagements

"lots of physics understanders in the qts pretending that theyve never dropped a pound of bricks and a pound of feathers at the same time and disproved Newtonian physics at home. didnt realize big physics had this many shills"
X Link 2023-10-13T15:59Z 57K followers, 1.5M engagements

"@paddycosgrave how much money have you personally accepted from the Qataris over the last decade"
X Link 2023-10-16T18:01Z 57K followers, 72.4K engagements

"@paddycosgrave can we get an answer on the Qatari question"
X Link 2023-10-16T18:34Z 70.6K followers, 11.3K engagements

"@paddycosgrave alternatively since it will be a matter of public record soon. why don't you just share the full contract you have with the qataris"
X Link 2023-10-16T18:58Z 62.4K followers, [----] engagements

"the Qataris have laundered billions of dollars through western tech companies in order to hide their support of genocide across the globe. "Pillars" of the community like Paddy enriched themselves off of this blood money and refused to disclose contracts until they were sued"
X Link 2023-10-17T13:08Z 62.5K followers, 19K engagements

"@paddycosgrave life comes at you fast"
X Link 2023-10-17T14:15Z 57K followers, 14.8K engagements

"youtube video essays are the greatest threat the west has ever seen I swear to god you do a cute little animation explain something in 17-44 minutes British accent you have normies totally upending their lives. no view can be held without a video essay 2x speed unbiased"
X Link 2023-10-18T01:07Z 62.4K followers, 12.3K engagements

"healthcare is having its top deck of the titanic moment what happens in the next year will define the next century of american healthcare and basically everyone is ignoring it. here's the real story:"
X Link 2023-10-18T13:30Z 57.6K followers, 1.9M engagements

"Healthcare has been defined by four factors: [--]. Extremely limited supply (MDs are scarce and costly). [--]. Principal-agent problem with payments (your insurance pays not you). [--]. Inelastic demand and high trust (you need it and have confidence in it). [--]. Regulatory capture"
X Link 2023-10-18T13:30Z 57K followers, 112.3K engagements

"this has allowed the industry to behave in incredibly weird ways cost can constantly grow patient experience can constantly degrade and clinics will still fill up with waitlists. because patients trust it need it aren't paying for it and have no choice"
X Link 2023-10-18T13:30Z 57K followers, 109.4K engagements

"In the last years we've seen all four of these factors shift [--]. Supply is expanding. Its hard to imagine a world where 90%+ of care isn't LLM assisted within the decade-- after years of getting brutalized by EMRs we're close to MDs having technology leverage"
X Link 2023-10-18T13:30Z 57K followers, 104.8K engagements

"The pieces of the stack that have existing regulatory entrenchment (EMR etc.) are even stickier than they've ever been. When the agency moves slow it has the effect of allowing capture to persist and entrench to absurd degrees. There is no world where we untangle these"
X Link 2023-10-18T13:30Z 57K followers, 70.6K engagements

"Yet I just spent the last month bouncing between various healthcare conferences and the party goes on. We have free physician quality artificial intelligence inbound and the most interesting question the industry can ask is how can this automate the fax machine"
X Link 2023-10-18T13:30Z 57K followers, 69K engagements

"In a world where there is no supply side competition (no net new entrants)-- this is a perfect strategy. the issue is this is no longer the case patients are now building an alternative medical system to the side of the traditional one with incredible demand"
X Link 2023-10-18T13:30Z 57K followers, 49.2K engagements

"In the next [--] months we will see hundreds of novel care schemes pop up that look unlike the healthcare system we are used to. These will be cash pay often legally gray and likely mostly LLM assisted. They will provide a better cheaper and faster option"
X Link 2023-10-18T13:30Z 57K followers, 53.1K engagements

"Even if you don't believe this libertarian-cash-pay free market utopia is likely (it is) all you have to look at is the integrated care networks for a hint of what the future looks like. Amazon/Walmart/CVS are already building this parallel care system. Its so over"
X Link 2023-10-18T13:30Z 57K followers, 69.6K engagements

"We are about to see furious competition for every single piece of the stack that has been a monopoly for a generation. From providing care to paying for it its all in play. Healthcare has become a technology industry and a consumer one and no one is ready"
X Link 2023-10-18T13:30Z 56.9K followers, 51.7K engagements

"@thedinkfive for telemedicine today when you get an rx after going through a structured form that's 99% machine and 1% human -- who is responsible how does that change when we 1000x the volume and crank the acuity. NPI holders will act like human liability shields increasingly inhuman"
X Link 2023-10-18T15:27Z 62.5K followers, 16K engagements

"just get sent a deck where the founder lists his deadlift / squat / press [--] rep max"
X Link 2023-10-22T16:13Z 57.4K followers, 414.8K engagements

"there's not a single decision that is made easier with "data" or "more information" data makes your decisions worse-- all it does it give you the tools to paint a thousand false narratives and build false conviction every great decision is self evidently clear without data"
X Link 2023-10-23T13:37Z 59K followers, 270.5K engagements

"I talked to the head of alt data at one of the most successful hedge funds in his two decades of counting cars from aerial photos reverse engineering purchase order counts and buying spending data there was not a single great trade that wasnt already obvious"
X Link 2023-10-23T13:52Z 57K followers, 11.3K engagements

"the hardest lesson Ive ever learned is there is no such thing as a good deal with a counterparty that doesnt share your values even a bad deal with a person who share your values is preferable to a fantastic deal with an asshole"
X Link 2023-10-23T20:50Z 57.7K followers, 15.5K engagements

"@varma_ashwin97 @Bio_Sifter a sufficiently number of commercial payors colluding is identical to gov in this case esp when commercial populations are exposed to more glp1 patients"
X Link 2023-10-24T23:57Z 56.9K followers, [--] engagements

"if a VC posts a thesis and you just reply lmao you can literally invalidate the entire thing they cant even invest in it anymore the Mandate of Heaven is lost its just a silly thing now theyre cooked"
X Link 2023-10-25T21:13Z 57.4K followers, 79.1K engagements

"The Executive Order on AI issued by the White House today represents the beginning of a complete overhaul of the regulatory landscape for healthcare AI. Here are my notes on what matters from the 100+ pages:"
X Link 2023-10-30T18:45Z 70K followers, 195K engagements

"It's shocking how the healthcare system has failed to reckon with its role in the opioid epidemic. Between 1999-2019 [------] people died from opioid overdoses. That's almost as many Americans as died in WWII. The healthcare system was complicit in this mass casualty event"
X Link 2023-11-01T13:29Z 57.4K followers, 28.2K engagements

"no one realizes the extent to which every llm is being hindered by junk data. Take a look at literally every dataset. They are overwhelmingly filled with data artifacts poorly scraped information from the web and completely irrelevant content. we can do better"
X Link 2023-11-02T19:08Z 57.4K followers, 15.6K engagements

"@sdw Leica makes one great product and [--] bad ones this has always been the case. It will never change because the great ones are so great Look at the Leica CL or the af-c1"
X Link 2023-11-03T16:35Z 57.4K followers, [----] engagements

"total vibe shift in tech right now last [--] years of saas were defined by "sales"-- highly mechanized process driven incremental growth we're entering the "deals" era. ex: openai/anthropic. complex legal agreements one contract that governs hundreds of cos totally new"
X Link 2023-11-07T14:29Z 61.9K followers, 315.4K engagements

"theres a huge opening for a tech native policy/lobbying shop right now were in for a heavily regulated next decade and none of the dc shops can explain what an LLM is well enough to be worth the retainer"
X Link 2023-11-09T15:28Z 57.8K followers, 18.9K engagements

"GPeatT made a GPT with access to Ray Peat's essays for q&a"
X Link 2023-11-11T15:52Z 57.7K followers, 65.2K engagements

"its crazy that the only place deep fakes have popped up is fake voice generated andrew huberman product endorsements for tiktok ads we were promised stolen elections and all we got was jaw line enhancers"
X Link 2023-11-14T14:25Z 59K followers, 156.9K engagements

"the only llm-business with a lasting moat is to find some random legacy industry with heavy regulatory/compliance requirements and build a set of wrappers that allow them to use their data with LLMs safely you can unlock literally billions in economic value doing this"
X Link 2023-11-16T14:21Z 58.5K followers, 43.6K engagements

"@jasonjoyride"
X Link 2023-11-19T00:53Z 58.5K followers, [---] engagements

"insane that if Sam returns he gains: [--]. Total full for profit structure (non profit is too dangerous after this) [--]. totally aligned board / no legacy EA baggage [--]. Organization free of weirdo doomers imagine trying to destroy someone and instead giving them complete power"
X Link 2023-11-19T01:21Z 62K followers, 503.5K engagements

"the worst mental defect of policy people is this kind of credential-based functionalism every goal is achievable with the right combination of PhDs and experts in the room they really believe history is made by great committees not by great men"
X Link 2023-11-19T15:40Z 58.9K followers, 104.9K engagements

"The OpenAI drama almost certainly taking place on Signal auto-deleting chats is like burning the Library of Alexandria for business. so many fantastic business books exist only because emails are hard to delete. This loss is massive"
X Link 2023-11-19T22:18Z 62.5K followers, 96K engagements

"in the next twelve months every enterprise will have a language model built for their data orchestrating a fleet of powerful giant open source models while whats left of openai will be stuck yelling at the sun to stop rising were so back"
X Link 2023-11-20T12:18Z 59K followers, 16.6K engagements

"its a good time to realize that every elite institution is filled with anti-human anti-flourishing anti-technology freaks not just the openai board"
X Link 2023-11-20T13:14Z 57.4K followers, 64K engagements

"delaware c corps are one of the most important inventions in human history"
X Link 2023-11-20T14:37Z 62K followers, 28.2K engagements

"anti-murder billboards are an incredibly effective economic indicator my hometown just got its first"
X Link 2023-11-20T19:47Z 62.7K followers, 1.1M engagements

"@zebowtieman yeah this is Memphis apparently theres a different one my random pa hometown"
X Link 2023-11-20T20:56Z 61.1K followers, 34.5K engagements

"@steph_palazzolo somehow this is going to end up with stability ai owning it"
X Link 2023-11-21T02:43Z 59K followers, [----] engagements

"every single one of our foreign adversaries likely had massive intelligence operations to stop or slow openai and they couldnt do 1/10th the damage a couple of our own over educated professional bureaucrats could"
X Link 2023-11-21T13:04Z 61.9K followers, 142.7K engagements

"once again we must absolutely quarantine georgetown securities studies graduates until we find out whats going on the ones lucky enough to help the boys in Langley are fine but the leftovers tend to roll their own chaos as they larp being an intelligence asset"
X Link 2023-11-21T13:19Z 57.7K followers, 10.4K engagements

"talked to a top hospital cio this morning he said hes getting 5-10 pitches for AI assisted X per week all the ones they tested show great academic benchmarks and horrible ethnic/gender bias when deployed healthcare is a game of long tails and no one is building for them"
X Link 2023-11-22T14:29Z 61.8K followers, 113.9K engagements

"i've never seen someone with a real job in a twitter space"
X Link 2023-11-22T17:21Z 61.8K followers, 21.9K engagements

"@SamoBurja @bismarckanlys bro how do they have a salesforce tower in guangdong"
X Link 2023-11-22T21:55Z 59K followers, [----] engagements

"@valueterminal in retrospect all of prestige tv was worthless the wire doesnt hold up the west wing is laughable its all nothing total coomer format"
X Link 2023-11-24T19:18Z 61.1K followers, [----] engagements

"@calleymeans under diagnosis"
X Link 2023-11-25T16:10Z 59K followers, [----] engagements

"the McKinsey internal firm history is an obvious one though easy to get these days the sequoia history that mm wrote is an obvious one (unless @shaunmmaguire 🤝)"
X Link 2023-11-25T18:16Z 62.4K followers, 379.5K engagements

"@shivon no they lack His grace in design"
X Link 2023-11-25T18:34Z 61.7K followers, 11.9K engagements

"@APompliano do you have an extra copy i can buy off of you"
X Link 2023-11-25T19:05Z 62.2K followers, 228.4K engagements

"@shaunmmaguire other pdfs i would pay bounties for: - tiger global's [--] page handbook for new analysts - tiger letters in general - the vista equities diligence checklist - the internal arnault biographies - early philadelphia yearly meeting minutes"
X Link 2023-11-25T20:00Z 62.6K followers, 385K engagements

"@shaunmmaguire i ask for banned books and you all give me pdfs available on amazon about "drugs" or "weapons" like its edgy. i dont want these. i want training manuals for industries that will have you killed for having them i want memos that the authors have tried to make disappear"
X Link 2023-11-25T20:22Z 62.2K followers, 366K engagements

"@nealkhosla surplus liberal elite are the first to go with llm automation surplus conservative elite will have pricing power because llms cant be based"
X Link 2023-11-26T17:03Z 61.7K followers, [---] engagements

"to clarify i actually really like lex. i sat in on his iap class in [----] or whatever (wasn't at mit i have no claim there). i just think grifting off a tenuous relationship w/ the institution is unnecessary"
X Link 2023-11-28T00:00Z 62K followers, 43.3K engagements

"@jasonljin @LinusEkenstam bro these are entirely different rooms"
X Link 2023-11-28T01:55Z 61.8K followers, [----] engagements

"forbes [--] under [--] should have a category for fraud"
X Link 2023-11-28T15:08Z 62.2K followers, 91.7K engagements

"every saas company with an LLM research org is totally cooked unless youre a foundation model provider these research orgs are power grabs by paper pushers models arent the hard part incorporating them into workflows are and your research org cant solve that"
X Link 2023-11-30T13:25Z 62.1K followers, 21K engagements

"i cannot explain to you how attractive "$100m budget to buy GPUs triple salaries and crank pre-prints" is to elements inside of every big technology company you are not openai don't act like it. you likely have data/workflows that are more interesting but they won't find it"
X Link 2023-11-30T13:34Z 62.1K followers, [----] engagements

"taking a spoonful of baking soda before bed has totally changed my life"
X Link 2023-11-30T16:01Z 62.8K followers, 397.6K engagements

"this year was the strangest of my life. i couldn't be more grateful to have lived it. here's [--] lessons for my birthday"
X Link 2023-12-04T14:33Z 62.4K followers, 214.6K engagements

"munger was the best amongst us in so many ways. got rich continued being rich while exploring his esoteric passion of building college dorms based on "maritime architecture" (no windows). its your job to be so weird that they can't defeat you no one does this"
X Link 2023-12-05T20:44Z 62.4K followers, 27.1K engagements

"i swear to god if you gave me 50b tomorrow i would not be running a "family office" and doing "tax avoidance". i would be building the biggest bronze cube in history i fund random states to succeed from the US i would be searching for pre-ice age civilization"
X Link 2023-12-05T20:46Z 62.7K followers, 26.3K engagements

"I dont think theres a single issue in my life that couldnt be fixed by owning a keswick green classic land rover"
X Link 2023-12-06T20:22Z 62.8K followers, [----] engagements

"there are [--] year olds on r/localllama that are two years ahead of the field in understanding finetuning/deploying/scaling llms"
X Link 2023-12-07T16:59Z 62.8K followers, 263.1K engagements

"there's a ton of LLM for accounting/legal/etc service provider companies right now you will capture 0% of the value selling software to these firms even if you increase productivity 100x. you need to own the equity. you will only win by buying/ rolling up the underlying cos"
X Link 2023-12-07T22:02Z 62.7K followers, 100.1K engagements

"every single great decision i have made was a result of a gut instinct every single horrible decision was the results of days of analysis thinking and workshopping"
X Link 2023-12-08T15:12Z 62.4K followers, 226.5K engagements

"the two most addictive substances on earth are management fees and leverage"
X Link 2023-12-14T18:21Z 62.7K followers, [----] engagements

"every time Ive said itll get easier after this it has not in fact gotten easier"
X Link 2023-12-14T20:51Z 62.8K followers, 37.6K engagements

"the most interesting application the healthcare industry can think of for LLMs is paperwork automation we have free infinite medical knowledge workers. this will enable radical new forms of care that upend the traditional system ignore the fax machine and get building"
X Link 2023-12-15T20:35Z 64.8K followers, 24.9K engagements

"if i use airpods with noise cancelling for too long i can genuinely induce havana syndrome"
X Link 2023-12-16T14:24Z 62.7K followers, [----] engagements

"the fundamental economic model of venture backed software is broken long form thoughts from @jo_hn2 and I on how to make money on the internet atherton real estate and how hyperscalers must become vertical software companies in order to grow"
X Link 2024-01-16T15:36Z 62.5K followers, 24.6K engagements

"@andrewparker we found out last night they shorted us thousands of dollars (100k+) over the last year by fucking up filings took a email to the ceo to get a support ticket replied to after four weeks still no resolution lmao fuck TriNet so deeply"
X Link 2024-01-20T17:50Z 62.5K followers, [---] engagements

"bhutanese uber driver told me that his mother can speak to bees and the apple trees and they told her that we are in a time of great darkness and uncertainty a winter of the soul but soon it will be spring and we will have incredible flourishing. i totally believe him"
X Link 2024-01-21T16:57Z 62.4K followers, 70.6K engagements

"I have never felt more confident getting on a flight"
X Link 2024-01-28T18:07Z 62.4K followers, 10.2K engagements

"i still think everyone is underestimating how underinvested internet social games are. this is the inevitable end of the tiktok-ification -- social status becomes an explicit score mechanism to build games on ⚠ Some personal news ⚠ Im launching @cryptothegame_ today and it's unlike anything you've ever seen. Its been 5+ years in the making and entries are now live: https://t.co/3uIjSUc8Cr ⚠ Some personal news ⚠ Im launching @cryptothegame_ today and it's unlike anything you've ever seen. Its been 5+ years in the making and entries are now live: https://t.co/3uIjSUc8Cr"
X Link 2024-01-29T20:37Z 62.5K followers, [----] engagements

"ONC should build federal data lake incentivize state funded systems to contribute allow companies to access these data for training/benchmarking but not directly touch/view the data. use this as a backdoor to build a non-SAMD regulatory pathway for healthcare AI"
X Link 2024-02-02T16:49Z 63.3K followers, 74.6K engagements

"there will be a regulatory pathway for LLMs to prescribe medicine within the decade with little/no MD oversight. the agency has already has a lax view of online telemedicine companies prescribing with extremely limited oversight / no video visit whatsoever. LLMs are safer"
X Link 2024-02-05T15:02Z 63.3K followers, 26.2K engagements

"if you want to build a valuable llm company today you have two choices 1) out raise everyone else 2) invest deeply in novel data origination there is no edge left other than scale and data"
X Link 2024-02-06T14:50Z 63.4K followers, 74.8K engagements

"the most underpriced asset in the world right now is structurally low margin supply limited services revenue almost all of these businesses originate hideous amounts of data that is specially valuable to real downstream workflows not just social media spam"
X Link 2024-02-06T14:50Z 63.9K followers, [----] engagements

"west texas is the closest thing ive found to magic on earth"
X Link 2024-02-07T17:18Z 63.4K followers, 144.3K engagements

"you can buy loitering munitions straight from Instagram reels now"
X Link 2024-02-11T18:08Z 63.5K followers, 265.2K engagements

"spent the weekend playing with openai sora really exciting but the generations all have this kind of "other worldly" quality. its like the models don't totally understand lighting physics or scene composition long way to go before this gets close to believable"
X Link 2024-02-17T21:46Z 63.5K followers, 98.2K engagements

"many of you"
X Link 2024-02-19T14:11Z 63.5K followers, 86.9K engagements

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