@WarrenPies Warren Pies

Warren Pies posts on X about fed, sentiment, ai, $vlo the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

Engagements: [-----] #

• [--] Week [-------] -56%
• [--] Month [---------] +23%
• [--] Months [---------] +50%
• [--] Year [----------] -0.43%

Mentions: [--] #

• [--] Week [--] +31%
• [--] Month [--] -23%
• [--] Months [---] +40%
• [--] Year [---] +2.40%

Followers: [------] #

• [--] Week [------] +0.35%
• [--] Month [------] +1.90%
• [--] Months [------] +15%
• [--] Year [------] +34%

CreatorRank: [-------] #

Social Influence

Social category influence finance 37.21% stocks 10.08% cryptocurrencies 3.88% social networks 0.78% technology brands 0.78% exchanges 0.78%

Social topic influence fed 9.3%, sentiment 4.65%, ai 3.88%, $vlo 3.88%, has been 3.1%, gdp #159, stocks 3.1%, inflation 3.1%, tariffs 3.1%, bullish #2214

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @3fresearch @revcap @ndrresearch @movinonup623 @stevehou0 @investornick @wduby @mlp44k @soberlook @kkrco @lblaybad @sethcl @atroll12345 @neilksethi @fejauinc @scottwapnercnbc @k3ithmccullough @spreadthread1 @epbresearch @briangobosox

Top assets mentioned Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Bitcoin (BTC) Phillips [--] (PSX) Enterprise Products Partners, LP. (EPD) Rally (RLY) TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) Bitcoin Gold (BTG) Lineage, Inc. (LINE) PBF ENERGY INC. (PBF)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Until the current software debacle there has never been an instance where: -An S&P [---] industry that was so large (8% of total mkt cap) -Has sold off so hard (25% selloff) -And the market remained at highs (w/i 3% of ATHs). +Index still making higher lows"
X Link 2026-02-04T20:29Z 65.1K followers, 57.5K engagements

"GPU availability falling across the board. Of note B200 availability making new lows. Less availability = bullish demand"
X Link 2026-02-06T13:42Z 65.1K followers, 128.7K engagements

"SOFTWARE - Price-to-sales adjusted for margins The good news The recent selloff brought the software group back to fair value. The bad news On this basis no terminal value impairment has been discounted yet"
X Link 2026-02-10T18:20Z 65.1K followers, 21.3K engagements

"Weird early-cycle vibes. https://x.com/WarrenPies/status/2009264693941084431s=20 Q2 [----] was the other quarter. This was a classic "jobless recovery" period following the early-90s recession (LFPR surged as discouraged workers came back to the workforce). It seems a similar dynamic is at work today. Of course AI is another possible explanation. It is https://x.com/WarrenPies/status/2009264693941084431s=20 Q2 [----] was the other quarter. This was a classic "jobless recovery" period following the early-90s recession (LFPR surged as discouraged workers came back to the workforce). It seems a"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:24Z 65.1K followers, 15.3K engagements

"RT @firstadopter: This could be a bullish sign for one company I think. Can't put my finger on it"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:11Z 65.1K followers, [--] engagements

"We create it and provide to clients updated daily cc @fernavid @WarrenPies Excellent Chart @WarrenPies do you pay for this data @WarrenPies Excellent Chart @WarrenPies do you pay for this data"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:42Z 65.1K followers, 18.3K engagements

"January's falling UE rate provides further confirmation of this thesis. In the previous cases quarters where GDP growth was 1% AND UE rate rose UE rate came back down in subsequent quarters. Falling UE rate in today's jobs report would put us on that "benign" trajectory. In the previous cases quarters where GDP growth was 1% AND UE rate rose UE rate came back down in subsequent quarters. Falling UE rate in today's jobs report would put us on that "benign" trajectory"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:20Z 65.1K followers, 26.8K engagements

"S&P [---] A broadening market is positive. But leadership is transitioning to an unhealthy place (Energy and Staples). Tech Comm Services Financials must get back into gear"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:00Z 65.1K followers, 35.2K engagements

"Very rare to see two of the top [--] largest stocks go in opposite directions by double digits on the same day. Only two other cases I can find: -August [--] [----] (citi -10.8% vs lucent +14.2%) -April [--] [----] (msft -14.5% vs +11.1%). Unprecedented to see this w/i the same sector"
X Link 2026-01-29T21:06Z 65.1K followers, 69.2K engagements

"@Investor_NICK_ 🫡"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:33Z 65.1K followers, [---] engagements

"@w_duby @Investor_NICK_ here you go. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/02/13/unhealthy-market-leadership-increases-downside-risk-in-equities-says-3fourteens-warren-pies.html https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/02/13/unhealthy-market-leadership-increases-downside-risk-in-equities-says-3fourteens-warren-pies.html"
X Link 2026-02-14T20:39Z 65.1K followers, [---] engagements

"@buccocapital The search for that which cannot be disrupted New report out to 3FR clients examining the bearish narratives threatening the bull: -Vanishing Mag7 buybacks -Software bloodbath/rerating -The Kevin Warsh and -Precious Metals vol. https://t.co/hN6duBskcc New report out to 3FR clients examining the bearish narratives threatening the bull: -Vanishing Mag7 buybacks -Software bloodbath/rerating -The Kevin Warsh and -Precious Metals vol. https://t.co/hN6duBskcc"
X Link 2026-02-07T23:20Z 65.1K followers, 40K engagements

"JANUARY JOBS Residential construction payrolls revised down significantly but flat for the month. Notably specialty trade contractors popped to a new cycle high. This is where the 2.2% of GDP AI capex boom shows up"
X Link 2026-02-11T13:50Z 65.1K followers, 22.9K engagements

"One year later the S&P [---] is back in one of these consolidation windows.Strange. Pays to brush up on these periods (thread below). SP [---] For the past three months the S&P [---] has traded in a narrow 6% range (5825-6118). These consolidation periods are rare (occur only 13% of the time going back to 1950). Sometimes they mark tops (2008 2022). Other times big rallies ensue (1990s). Resolution is key. https://t.co/QG8iTznlDh SP [---] For the past three months the S&P [---] has traded in a narrow 6% range (5825-6118). These consolidation periods are rare (occur only 13% of the time going back to"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:40Z 65.1K followers, 50.2K engagements

"@Investor_NICK_ no doubt. When energy financials by 20% in a three month window it is no bueno"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:58Z 65.1K followers, 11.9K engagements

"@rev_cap Falling FCF is the most mid bear argument floating around"
X Link 2026-02-14T21:27Z 65.1K followers, 11.6K engagements

"K-Shaped Economy The Fed has to decide whether it wants to stimulate the "lower-part of the K" (real estate broad labor etc.) OR control the mania of the "upper-part of the K" (AI + Ultra-high end consumer). *Spoiler: They will stimulate the lower part of the K. Delicate footwork here: Bartiromo: Which pockets of the economy are now in recession Hassett: I would get Secretary Bessent to tell you which ones he thinks are in recession. Delicate footwork here: Bartiromo: Which pockets of the economy are now in recession Hassett: I would get Secretary Bessent to tell you which ones he thinks are"
X Link 2025-11-07T17:12Z 64.9K followers, 173.2K engagements

"@movinonup623 @SoberLook @KKR_Co Short answer is nothing changes. Tech debt cycle is v early compared to the underlying buildout. The only thing starting to impair my valuation thesis is that more and more people are becoming convinced"
X Link 2026-01-22T19:21Z 64.9K followers, [---] engagements

"@movinonup623 @SoberLook @KKR_Co Nothing's ever perfect. If you listen closely though you hear a lot of H1 bear cases within the context of a bullish full year"
X Link 2026-01-22T20:43Z 64.9K followers, [---] engagements

"PRODUCTIVITY: AI vs DISSAVING Productivity jumped in Q3.everyone - especially potential new Fed chairs - is hoping it continues. Optimists: AI is behind the rise (durable). Skeptics: This is just dissaving due to wealth (fickle). Our view: Mostly dissaving (80/20) BUT lower savings rate is expected in a debasement regime. Inflated asset portfolios support a very low savings rate (see wealth ratio vs savings rate). This can boost productivity for a bit until AI takes the baton"
X Link 2026-01-27T20:41Z 64.9K followers, 31.8K engagements

"Last year we wrote extensively about how a "debasement mindset" would manifest in consumers. Lower savings rate and increased speculation/gambling key markers imo"
X Link 2026-01-27T20:45Z 65.1K followers, 18.5K engagements

"At $5500 the gold move is pushing up into rare territory. I'm a broken record but these moves always go higher and last longer than investors expect. GOLD The current gold secular bull market tracking higher than the early-2000s move and lower than the 1970s bull. As we have said to clients for years these secular moves go higher and last longer than investors expect. @3F_Research https://t.co/SoiA6CdFPB GOLD The current gold secular bull market tracking higher than the early-2000s move and lower than the 1970s bull. As we have said to clients for years these secular moves go higher and last"
X Link 2026-01-29T01:46Z 64.9K followers, 142.9K engagements

"@NickTimiraos Balance sheet policy wont change for a long time if ever @TotemMacro @mykwantitative @NickTimiraos That doesn't sound like it will help Trump in the midterms lol. But in all seriousness I see debasement/inequality as multi-factor problems which mostly stem from fiscal policy. More QT is not going to fix all the problems you list (military encourage capex inequality).It @TotemMacro @mykwantitative @NickTimiraos That doesn't sound like it will help Trump in the midterms lol. But in all seriousness I see debasement/inequality as multi-factor problems which mostly stem from fiscal"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:57Z 65K followers, 15.4K engagements

"My brain is a little broken by that concept but the evidence and market action points that direction. Lib Day almost looks like a mini-recession in the rearview. imo being good at macro requires a brain that can be broken and keep working.the real test is to see how people update their priors as the data pushes them to uncomfortable conclusions. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021593940223266916 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021593940223266916"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:35Z 65K followers, [----] engagements

"SP [---] For the past three months the S&P [---] has traded in a narrow 6% range (5825-6118). These consolidation periods are rare (occur only 13% of the time going back to 1950). Sometimes they mark tops (2008 2022). Other times big rallies ensue (1990s). Resolution is key"
X Link 2025-02-13T23:26Z 65.1K followers, 209K engagements

"I'm seeing recession calls. Yet Mag7 is spending 2.1% of GDP on capex and U.S. govt running +6% deficit (expanding in H1)"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:26Z 65.1K followers, 264.8K engagements

"Interpreting econ data in the age of AI is going to become increasingly difficult.much conventional wisdom will become inverted. Excerpt from a @3F_Research report published last May"
X Link 2026-02-07T13:47Z 65.1K followers, 19.7K engagements

"Nice study from DH here Created w/ Caliban https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/caliban So far so good. When the S&P [---] experiences a positive three-month change in earnings per share (EPS) market performance has been meaningfully stronger. In these periods the index has delivered an 11.4% annualized return with positive returns on 54.6% of trading days. By https://t.co/9GlhiypKwi https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/caliban So far so good. When the S&P [---] experiences a positive three-month change in earnings per share (EPS) market performance has been meaningfully stronger. In these periods the"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:38Z 65.1K followers, 19.8K engagements

"@lblaybad @w_duby @Investor_NICK_ not underweight.just from OW to benchmark. we have oscillated between benchmark weight and overweight equities for 2+ years now. Would have to see true deterioration in the macro to get UW"
X Link 2026-02-15T18:48Z 65.1K followers, [---] engagements

"S&P [---] Mega-cap strength masking weakness under the surface (S&P equal-weight down 1% today). Median S&P stock was more than 13% away from a [--] week high as the index made new highs. Bulls need rally to broaden. Fwiw we neutralized our equity overweight last week"
X Link 2025-07-15T19:15Z 56.4K followers, 188.1K engagements

"This is why the Fed does not (and should not) set policy based on the stock market or crypto (lol). If the wealth effect is meaningful enough then it will show up in real economic data. Take a step back and think about your framework.Fed should cut in April.Fed should hike now.Stay away from policy recommendations"
X Link 2025-07-17T14:01Z 55.9K followers, [----] engagements

"Many criticize Waller and say he is just trying to get the job but there is a huge distance from him - someone who has an intellectual consistent/defensible/sound position - and the sycophants (Hassett Bowman Warsh) who are extensions of DJT. The upshot is that the market reactions will be markedly different if he is the next Chair vs the other group. Waller removes any doubt: He'll vote for a July cut. The opening line of the speech gets to the point: My purpose this evening is to explain why I believe that the FOMC should reduce our policy rate by [--] basis points at our next meeting."
X Link 2025-07-17T22:38Z 56.2K followers, 143.4K engagements

"@Etiam_Aliquam This is called making the perfect the enemy of the good.The perfect candidate does not exist.But a few disasters are available"
X Link 2025-07-17T22:48Z 55.9K followers, [----] engagements

"And reminder he signaled the pivot back in late-23 and - IMO - things turned out pretty good (to be clear if you argue that things SINCE that time have been bad it is teenage-female coded) https://x.com/WarrenPies/status/1880082524136743068 @dampedspring Andy this reminds me of a conversation we had way back in [----] surrounding the big 11/23 "Waller Pivot." Slow night.so I dug it up (twitter exchange below). Since that pivot: -Core PCE has averaged 2.5% -UE Rate up by .4% -+30 bps -FFR [----] bps -S&P [---] +30% This seems https://x.com/WarrenPies/status/1880082524136743068 @dampedspring Andy"
X Link 2025-07-17T22:50Z 56.2K followers, 17K engagements

"@mlp_44k It sucksbail now"
X Link 2025-07-18T01:08Z 55.9K followers, [---] engagements

"@mlp_44k Well Im a tough critic Thought it sucked immediatelywatched like [--] episodes due to a recommendationit did get worse as I recall"
X Link 2025-07-18T01:16Z 55.9K followers, [---] engagements

"@mlp_44k Oh my badlike I said Im a tough critic"
X Link 2025-07-18T01:22Z 55.9K followers, [---] engagements

"@AdamBScott1979 @mlp_44k"
X Link 2025-07-18T01:43Z 55.9K followers, [---] engagements

"It's a fair question (how badly the economy needs cuts). My view is that there is a distinct policy path embedded in the curve. SOFR says 5-6 cuts left in the cycle. June SEP a little more conservative. This path is already priced into rates across the curve which has normalized after its long period of inversion. My framework is less about the exact timing of the next cut but that the market still expects a significant amount of cutting in the intermediate term. Whether the next cut comes in July or December is not all that important imo. Our analysis suggests that the pricing of the 10y 2y"
X Link 2025-07-18T14:40Z 55.9K followers, [---] engagements

"@SethCL It's not about rate cuts or staying on hold. It is about what an intellectually consistent and honest appointment signals to the market VS perennial hawks who have transformed into doves b/c they will do whatever the President wants"
X Link 2025-07-18T14:42Z 56K followers, [----] engagements

"@atroll12345 @SethCL Equities would be on fire 🔥 The fire would be fueled by burning paper 💵"
X Link 2025-07-18T14:49Z 55.9K followers, [---] engagements

"@acemoney21 Big automatic bids drying up too. vol-target went from [---] S/D to +1 S/D exposure.CTAs loading up.corporates blacked out. These have been big tailwinds for the rally"
X Link 2025-07-21T20:36Z 56.1K followers, 11K engagements

"@gubbmintcheese A top or the top We still have a [----] target for the year.But it's never straight up"
X Link 2025-07-21T20:37Z 56K followers, [----] engagements

"@Chartfest1 Getting political almost always hurts returns"
X Link 2025-07-22T13:46Z 56K followers, [----] engagements

"S&P [---] - SENTIMENT Now touching extreme optimism. Would be logical to see the market cool between mid-August and mid-October. @3F_Research"
X Link 2025-07-25T01:12Z 56.6K followers, 112.2K engagements

"@PharmD_KS @3F_Research You can tell bc its hard to even tweet something mildly negative without feeling self conscious 😅"
X Link 2025-07-25T01:17Z 56.1K followers, [----] engagements

"Had some questions on the sentiment composite. Among a few other things it uses data/estimates of: -Systematic strategies -CTAs -Options data -Investor polls/survey data. Full history below"
X Link 2025-07-25T13:06Z 56.3K followers, [----] engagements

"S&P [---] Equal Weight made a new ATH today. This cures most of the breadth concerns that were floating around earlier this month. S&P [---] Mega-cap strength masking weakness under the surface (S&P equal-weight down 1% today). Median S&P stock was more than 13% away from a [--] week high as the index made new highs. Bulls need rally to broaden. Fwiw we neutralized our equity overweight last week. https://t.co/MQy7uAJeFz S&P [---] Mega-cap strength masking weakness under the surface (S&P equal-weight down 1% today). Median S&P stock was more than 13% away from a [--] week high as the index made new"
X Link 2025-07-25T22:03Z 56.4K followers, 51K engagements

"The fear of losing ground (i.e. purchasing power) is replacing the fear of losing principle This fear manifests in market structure and consumer behavior. H1 of [----] accelerated the mindset shift from "deflation to debasement." Excerpt from this week's @3F_Research report"
X Link 2025-07-26T11:33Z 56.4K followers, 32K engagements

"@realwallyg @3F_Research Correctfading optimism is WAY more tricky than fading pessimism"
X Link 2025-07-26T12:56Z 56.2K followers, [---] engagements

"Nice summary of where the bull market stands from @michaelsantoli including an overview of the @3F_Research sentiment work. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/26/bull-market-enters-the-anything-goes-phase-should-you-follow.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/26/bull-market-enters-the-anything-goes-phase-should-you-follow.html"
X Link 2025-07-28T15:22Z 56.4K followers, 13.9K engagements

"S&P [---] EARNINGS Market reaction to Q2 earnings looking very similar to the Q4 season: -Beats rewarded modestly -Misses punished severely Notable S&P [---] EARNINGS I don't want to overreact but Q4 earnings season reflects a character change in the market. In short the market is punishing earnings misses (blue line below) more harshly and beats (purple line below) are receiving a smaller pop. @3F_Research https://t.co/kCLlIUUMrt S&P [---] EARNINGS I don't want to overreact but Q4 earnings season reflects a character change in the market. In short the market is punishing earnings misses (blue line"
X Link 2025-07-30T19:37Z 56.4K followers, 30.6K engagements

"JULY JOBS First impression - this is an ugly report. Losses across the cyclical areas of the economy. -Second straight month residential construction jobs ticked down. -Manufacturing job losses piling up w/ negative revisions. -Ex-education+HC the economy lost jobs in July"
X Link 2025-08-01T12:40Z 56.6K followers, 172K engagements

"Sentiment is best revealed by how the market reacts to data. During periods of excess optimism reactions to "good" data (earnings beats) are muted.reactions to bad data (weak jobs numbers) are outsized. This week's price action confirms we need to see sentiment cool off. S&P [---] - SENTIMENT Now touching extreme optimism. Would be logical to see the market cool between mid-August and mid-October. @3F_Research https://t.co/lGUedMvxHR S&P [---] - SENTIMENT Now touching extreme optimism. Would be logical to see the market cool between mid-August and mid-October. @3F_Research https://t.co/lGUedMvxHR"
X Link 2025-08-01T13:46Z 56.6K followers, 34.1K engagements

"Jobs data has been revised down every month this year. June initial = 147k revised to 14k May initial = 139k revised to 19k April initial = 177k revised to 158k March initial = 228k revised to 120k Feb initial = 151k revised to 102k Jan initial = 143k revised to 111k JULY JOBS First impression - this is an ugly report. Losses across the cyclical areas of the economy. -Second straight month residential construction jobs ticked down. -Manufacturing job losses piling up w/ negative revisions. -Ex-education+HC the economy lost jobs in July. JULY JOBS First impression - this is an ugly report."
X Link 2025-08-01T20:10Z 56.6K followers, 181.6K engagements

"@atroll12345 Probably trump lol.negative revisions precede contractions and he is implementing contractionary policy"
X Link 2025-08-01T20:14Z 56.4K followers, [----] engagements

"@neilksethi This was always such a fade"
X Link 2025-08-02T13:42Z 56.4K followers, [----] engagements

"@fejau_inc @EconBerger Lack of hiring more than firing atm"
X Link 2025-08-03T01:08Z 56.4K followers, [----] engagements

"@rev_cap Heading to new lows for [----] still"
X Link 2025-08-04T23:57Z 56.4K followers, [----] engagements

"@RyanDetrick Great chart"
X Link 2025-08-06T01:19Z 56.4K followers, [----] engagements

"@rev_cap This is the real melt up scenario"
X Link 2025-08-08T20:27Z 56.5K followers, [----] engagements

"S&P [---] EARNINGS Post-GFC S&P earnings have grown faster than inflation all but 5.9% of the time (5y ROC). Since [----] earnings have been inflation 100% of the time. With S&P [---] ROIC 20% these companies will continue to absorb cost increases and maintain pricing power"
X Link 2025-08-10T13:10Z 56.7K followers, 39K engagements

"@Donn1nger This is why we call it a debasement regime and not an inflation regime"
X Link 2025-08-10T13:40Z 56.6K followers, [----] engagements

"What is most likely for the S&P [---] through October Melt up Mild correction/Chop Stiff correction (=7%) Melt up Mild correction/Chop Stiff correction (=7%)"
X Link 2025-08-11T20:31Z 56.6K followers, 15.4K engagements

"@BertotChristian My vote is mild correction/chop. I do worry this is becoming consensus though.So I like to ask myself what scenario I'm missing. As a rule of thumb S&P has a =5% correction (on a rolling [--] day basis) about 50% of the time from Aug-Oct. I'd guess higher odds than normal"
X Link 2025-08-11T20:56Z 56.6K followers, [---] engagements

"It's not a smart move to turn our statistical agencies into partisan propaganda arms. It won't be effective either.if the labor market is deteriorating you cannot gaslight the populace into feeling like everything is ok b/c the BLS says so. Ultimately this move just creates confusion for those of us trying to understand the labor market better"
X Link 2025-08-12T12:04Z 57.2K followers, 62.9K engagements

"JULY CPI -Supercore +.48% MOM driven by medical care (highest MOM gain since 22). -Yet overall report shows little tariff effect (modest increases in furnishings etc.) Bottom Line: The Fed's excuse to pause (tariffs) is losing its power. Sept cut odds go up to 96% (from 87%)"
X Link 2025-08-12T13:06Z 56.7K followers, 36.9K engagements

"@stevehou0 I think market had a myopic focus on seeing tariff effect.not much tariff effect = rally b/c it boxes the fed into cuts. So it can look through some of the trouble spots (medical care). That's how I explain the rally"
X Link 2025-08-12T13:11Z 56.6K followers, [----] engagements

"@stevehou0 @eaccocortex Exactly Steve.boxed in by they're own words/reasoning. The Fed should have stuck to its stated method of not anticipating policy impacts on data"
X Link 2025-08-12T13:30Z 56.6K followers, [---] engagements

"@WaterworldCapi1 Bc the Fed made this a binary decision: no tariff impact = cutboxed in"
X Link 2025-08-12T13:37Z 56.6K followers, [---] engagements

"Ironically this was the first cpi report this year that actually supports inflation reacceleration. One report is not a trend but it requires monitoring"
X Link 2025-08-12T16:19Z 57K followers, 78.4K engagements

"@rev_cap But bro you have been warning me for a looooooooonnnng time10y still around 4.25%"
X Link 2025-08-12T16:30Z 56.6K followers, [----] engagements

"S&P [---] Corporate buybacks supported the market during the depths of the Liberation Day selloff. Coming into August a-seasonal buying persisted but is now reverting to a seasonal trough. Going back to [----] S&P returns 3X higher during periods of aggressive corp buying"
X Link 2025-08-15T13:02Z 57.9K followers, 49K engagements

"From the one-year anniversary of the below tweet S&P [---] had outperformed R2K by 15% (QQQ 20%). Many funds had piled into the short R2K trade - and for that reason you have to manage the hedge a bit. With that said long large/qual + short small remains the trade. A modest small cap short is an excellent equity hedge at this point in the cycle A modest small cap short is an excellent equity hedge at this point in the cycle"
X Link 2025-08-15T13:53Z 57.3K followers, 24.1K engagements

"Notably over that period the Fed cut rates by [---] bps. And there is still a bid for smalls any time rate cut odds increase. Discussed on Tuesday w/ @ScottWapnerCNBC when the R2K had popped by 3% on higher Sept rate cut odds. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=-QfR1PAv1ao https://www.youtube.com/watchv=-QfR1PAv1ao"
X Link 2025-08-15T13:59Z 57.4K followers, 12.3K engagements

"@k3ithmccullough @ScottWapnerCNBC hahaha.I def felt that energy at the NYSE Tuesday.Benchmark weight = bearish"
X Link 2025-08-15T19:48Z 56.7K followers, [---] engagements

"I remember during the period following the GFC new homes got smaller and the floorplans cheaper to build (square foundation [--] story home etc.).brought the new home market down to reality. Similar dynamics happening now. For the first time ever it is considerably cheaper to buy a new house than to buy an existing house. Likely signals an inflection point in the housing market. https://t.co/eH9jMTROlQ For the first time ever it is considerably cheaper to buy a new house than to buy an existing house. Likely signals an inflection point in the housing market. https://t.co/eH9jMTROlQ"
X Link 2025-08-18T20:41Z 56.7K followers, [----] engagements

"JULY HOUSING STARTS SF starts remain below 80k for the month. Three-month moving average for SF starts hitting the lowest point in over two years. The housing market remains in a functional recession"
X Link 2025-08-19T12:45Z 57.5K followers, 41.7K engagements

"@EconstratPB Other factors extending the cycle are fat builder margins (which act as a source of additional incentives) and labor hoarding. Hard to let go of workers b/c of a cyclical downturn when there is a secular shortage of housing"
X Link 2025-08-19T13:48Z 56.8K followers, [----] engagements

"Powell's Jackson Hole dilemma: When Core CPI is above 3% AND rising the Fed has only cut rates one time (red vertical lines below). If August CPI prints above 3% then a September cut would be the second case. The only other time the Fed cut under these conditions: Dec 2024"
X Link 2025-08-22T13:43Z 57.8K followers, 101.3K engagements

"Yeah I guess I answered where I thought neutral was and you asked about terminal. On that question I think SOFR is about right.Good chance the Fed cuts more (2.5%). The question is when will these three factors - shelter labor oil - move from disinflation to reflation I'm trying to stay open minded on the issue"
X Link 2025-08-22T21:52Z 57.3K followers, [---] engagements

"We went from OW bonds to UW bonds on the day following the Fed cut last year. However I never fell into the trap of calling the cut a mistake. Last year the curve was inverted to flat - reflecting an unhealthy economy. Fed support via cuts plus improving labor data catalyzed the normalization. Your comment seemed to argue that rising yields were prima facie evidence of a Fed mistake. My response is that is an incorrect framing and ignores initial conditions. Carrying that framework forward is going to cause you to be confused about what the market is signaling. So I'd ask the question again"
X Link 2025-08-28T15:00Z 57.5K followers, [----] engagements

"@chairman747 @MrBlonde_macro So when the 10y minus FFR was [---] bps inverted the bond market was signaling appropriate interest rate policy no. You - like many others - misinterpreted the price action of the past [--] months or so"
X Link 2025-08-28T15:03Z 57.5K followers, [---] engagements

"@stevehou0 @mnmntklphrsn I'm w/ you Steve* *so is the bond mkt"
X Link 2025-08-28T19:33Z 57.5K followers, [---] engagements

"@sonusvarghese @stevehou0 Absolutely https://x.com/WarrenPies/status/1937550096432070808 @stevehou0 Good stuff. Here's a simple way to see it - 10yr across rate cutting cycles. On avg the typical [--] bp Fed cut lowers the 2y by [--] bps and 10y by [--] bp (7 bp steeper 2-10 curve). Just a rule of thumb over time. https://t.co/ZQr5KASNBi https://x.com/WarrenPies/status/1937550096432070808 @stevehou0 Good stuff. Here's a simple way to see it - 10yr across rate cutting cycles. On avg the typical [--] bp Fed cut lowers the 2y by [--] bps and 10y by [--] bp (7 bp steeper 2-10 curve). Just a rule of thumb"
X Link 2025-08-28T20:33Z 57.5K followers, [---] engagements

"Ok.but that is kind of a non-statement. All of these things are related and somewhat reflexive. If you held the view that JP being dovish at JH was a big mistake.you can either make up reasons why price action did not validate your thesis or you can admit you over-estimated the perceived "mistake.""
X Link 2025-08-28T20:39Z 57.5K followers, [---] engagements

"Not a fan of drawing lines on the 10y. BUT it is hard not to see this.Could be a big move in yields after tomorrow's payroll report"
X Link 2025-09-04T12:13Z 57.8K followers, 103K engagements

"What inflation swap is at 4% Tbh I'm far less certain of the macro environment than you are. But I see labor mkt weakness as the clearest factor. You disagree (I get it) but the Fed (and the bond mkt which is what matters) are looking through tariff inflation. Bottom line: -Fed likely to cut a lot over next year (Dec26 SOFR new highs/implied rates new lows). -2y will track lower. -10y will as well (to a lesser extent).hard to get 10-2 [---] bps w/o the mkt starting to price hikes in the future. Only going to get the mythical bond vigilante outcome if the Fed truly ignores the data w/o a viable"
X Link 2025-09-04T20:35Z 57.8K followers, [----] engagements

"AUGUST JOBS +22k jobs.UE rate up to 4.3% Ex-education & health care economy LOST 24k jobs Residential construction payrolls continue to bleed lower (5 straight months). Labor market is stuck in a "malignant stasis.""
X Link 2025-09-05T12:43Z 57.8K followers, 48.6K engagements

"@stevehou0 This is my question Steveseems like vibes more than data"
X Link 2025-09-05T15:10Z 58.5K followers, [----] engagements

"Some lines matter I guess Not a fan of drawing lines on the 10y. BUT it is hard not to see this.Could be a big move in yields after tomorrow's payroll report. https://t.co/2ptqxcD2yf Not a fan of drawing lines on the 10y. BUT it is hard not to see this.Could be a big move in yields after tomorrow's payroll report. https://t.co/2ptqxcD2yf"
X Link 2025-09-05T16:56Z 57.9K followers, 31.9K engagements

"@SamuelRines Every once in a whilethx Sam (missing you in fantasy football this year bro)"
X Link 2025-09-05T17:26Z 57.7K followers, [---] engagements

"August CPI out this Thursday. Two of the biggest surprise upside contributors last month - medical care + transportation services - had the largest positive July seasonal adjustment ever. Watch for reversal of both.Cooler CPI would fuel 50-bp cut odds and push yields lower"
X Link 2025-09-08T13:53Z 57.9K followers, 77.3K engagements

"@rektdiomedes I realize this is an old post but are you saying you walked [--] miles with [--] lbs on your back and a [--] lb dumbbell in each hand Truly brutal"
X Link 2025-09-09T18:15Z 57.8K followers, [----] engagements

"@Citrini7 Tariffs the difference between fiscal contraction in [----] (6.1% deficit) and expansion (7.1% deficit)bond negative stock positive (as long as its not too bond negative)"
X Link 2025-09-10T01:01Z 57.8K followers, [----] engagements

"H2 [----] @3F_Research Outlook - published 6/26.The market continues to come to us. -10y flirting with a 3-handle -3-4 Fed cuts now priced -Gold making new highs -S&P [---] making new highs -Econ data weakening"
X Link 2025-09-11T14:17Z 57.8K followers, 22.4K engagements

"AUGUST RETAIL SALES +.6% (vs .2% EST) Forward retail revenue estimates have reflected this "boom." The question: Is this a reacceleration or cost passthroughs from tariffs Weak consumer service estimates points to tariff cost increases in goods crowding out service spending"
X Link 2025-09-16T12:52Z 58K followers, 59.7K engagements

"Chart includes: [---] key U.S. retailers (AMZN WMT COST HD LOW TJX ORLY TGT) [---] key U.S. consumer service companies (BKNG DRI RCL MAR HLT CCL LVS EXPE ABNB DAL UAL)"
X Link 2025-09-16T12:59Z 58K followers, [----] engagements

"I wish I had the certainty that you do. Which airlines have rising forward sales estimates DAL not looking hot. Wealth effect is significant and I don't discount it. HH equity NW has increased at 14% of GDP. If you apply a 2.5% spending rule on this (which is in line w/ academic lit) then it equates to a $112 billion spending boost. Of course house prices falling over this period and the typical argument is that housing NW drives consumer spending more than equity NW. Not to mention the fact that yields declined after the data release.you continue to oversimplify the macro environment imo"
X Link 2025-09-16T14:21Z 57.9K followers, [----] engagements

"DOLLAR - NEW CYCLE LOWS Dollar Index on the verge of making new cycle lows. Gold (and SOFR) has been pointing to this. New lows ahead. Excerpt from the 9.11.25 @3F_Research Model Update"
X Link 2025-09-16T18:45Z 58K followers, 39.9K engagements

"Going to repost this for you. I don't think your key assertion is that consumers can absorb tariffs but that tariffs will cause a wage-price spiral that mimics a reacceleration. It may seem like nit picking but it is not. There is a big difference between saying that consumers/the economy can handle the tariff cost increase w/o a recession (I tend to agree) VS saying that tariffs will somehow lead to a "wage-price spiral" that mimics a reacceleration. https://x.com/WarrenPies/status/1968042502872781225 https://x.com/WarrenPies/status/1968042502872781225"
X Link 2025-09-16T20:06Z 57.8K followers, [---] engagements

"@SpreadThread1 @EPBResearch @rev_cap @briangobosox @w_duby I disagree that the bond market is priced for the recession probability that Eric lays out10-2 still at [--] bpsthis is a totally normal curve given 4-5 cuts ahead of us. Recession pricing (even at 33% odds) would be flatter than this"
X Link 2025-09-17T00:21Z 57.9K followers, [----] engagements

"@w_duby @SpreadThread1 @EPBResearch @rev_cap @briangobosox I think we r on the same pageI hold open the slim possibility that a 2ish FFR could be consistent with equities especially given the AI dynamics but not my base case and not going to stop all markets from pricing in optimistic outcomes in the interim"
X Link 2025-09-17T00:43Z 57.9K followers, [---] engagements

"AUGUST HOUSING STARTS Single-family starts falling below 75k for the month. Three-month moving avg for SF starts hits the lowest point since May [----] (when the post-pandemic backlog was still massive). Housing remains in a functional recession. JULY HOUSING STARTS SF starts remain below 80k for the month. Three-month moving average for SF starts hitting the lowest point in over two years. The housing market remains in a functional recession. https://t.co/hNsEXNr9Ff JULY HOUSING STARTS SF starts remain below 80k for the month. Three-month moving average for SF starts hitting the lowest point"
X Link 2025-09-17T13:32Z 57.9K followers, 20.6K engagements

"FOMC PREVIEW Big divergence between the market and the Fed: [-----] SOFR = 2.85% FFR [-----] Fed projection = 3.6% (June SEP) 1) The Fed will move towards the mkt - but not meet it 2) Contrary to consensus recent history says stocks do well in this setup (see [------] or 12.2023)"
X Link 2025-09-17T16:47Z 58K followers, 28.7K engagements

"FED Real Fed Funds Rate making new lows for [----] [----] and [----] based on new SEP"
X Link 2025-09-17T18:11Z 57.9K followers, 14.1K engagements

"One big takeaway from the September SEP meeting is that the doves won. Remember coming out of the June meeting half the committee expected no cuts.the other half multiple. Excerpt from the @3F_Research H2 Outlook published on 6/26/25"
X Link 2025-09-17T21:28Z 57.9K followers, 22K engagements

"@fejau_inc @toiletkingcap Labors left tail getting fattersaid differently they see a malignant stasis forming in the labor mktie more weakness than UE may suggestat least thats how Im squaring it"
X Link 2025-09-20T15:07Z 58.1K followers, [----] engagements

"The debasement trade.has a nice ring to it. Per this CNBC reporting the strategy favoring gold and Bitcoin now has a name: JP Morgan analysts are calling it "the debasement trade." #economy #gold #bitcoin @jpmorgan @CNBC https://t.co/tl1BOMCgz8 Per this CNBC reporting the strategy favoring gold and Bitcoin now has a name: JP Morgan analysts are calling it "the debasement trade." #economy #gold #bitcoin @jpmorgan @CNBC https://t.co/tl1BOMCgz8"
X Link 2025-10-02T19:40Z 58.6K followers, 88.1K engagements

"Appreciate that @APompliano Enjoyed the conversation I believe @WarrenPies is one of the top analysts on Wall Street. He has a unique view on currency debasement and why investors should be allocating to stocks bitcoin gold and real estate. I sat down with Warren this morning to discuss what investors need to know. https://t.co/Phq5hipxn0 I believe @WarrenPies is one of the top analysts on Wall Street. He has a unique view on currency debasement and why investors should be allocating to stocks bitcoin gold and real estate. I sat down with Warren this morning to discuss what investors need to"
X Link 2025-10-03T16:51Z 58.4K followers, 23K engagements

"Final S&P [---] poll: Pretty big sentiment swing compared to last December 👀 Is the S&P [---] more likely to end [----] Is the S&P [---] more likely to end 2025"
X Link 2025-10-03T18:33Z 58.8K followers, 38.2K engagements

"For those who are confused: Oil in transitOil in tanksTerm structure weakens (from backwardation towards contango). Back to this oil-on-water thing - our S&D model shows a modest surplus for September oil-on-water indicates a glut - a surplus of [--] Mbd. This glut is on the water heading to onshore inventories. https://t.co/GpS6TMVrC9 Back to this oil-on-water thing - our S&D model shows a modest surplus for September oil-on-water indicates a glut - a surplus of [--] Mbd. This glut is on the water heading to onshore inventories. https://t.co/GpS6TMVrC9"
X Link 2025-10-07T15:22Z 59.1K followers, 49.3K engagements

"Similarly the @3F_Research Sentiment Composite still reflects excess optimism but is rolling over now"
X Link 2025-10-11T19:46Z 59.1K followers, 10.8K engagements

"@rev_cap Cope"
X Link 2025-10-15T14:00Z 59.1K followers, [----] engagements

"$VLO could unlock 35% of additional value through $VLP - MLPs=major refiner growth outlet @NDR_Research @brisanborn http://t.co/gGiNes3mfE"
X Link 2014-09-24T18:44Z 44.9K followers, [--] engagements

"What to buy GC refiners w/ dropdown MLPs + well-capitalized stocks that can vulture assets from weak @NDR_Research $VLO $MPC $PSX $OXY $EPD"
X Link 2015-02-17T18:45Z 44.9K followers, [--] engagements

"Refiners 1% from ATHs.should b there by EOD. Uncanny resemblance to [--] pattern. $VLO $MPC $PSX @NDR_Research http://t.co/mULNIeFk8m"
X Link 2015-07-01T15:56Z 44.9K followers, [--] engagements

"E&P - Leverage now hurting equity performance @NDR_Research"
X Link 2015-10-21T14:09Z 44.9K followers, [--] engagements

"$VLO dividend increase + positive seasonality = Q4 refiner rally.crude remains a buyer's mkt @NDR_Research"
X Link 2015-10-29T18:14Z 44.9K followers, [--] engagements

"@EnergyRosen @HFM17Mile Would agree.no value yet. This cycle equities have consistently gotten ahead of fundys"
X Link 2015-11-19T19:14Z 44.9K followers, [--] engagements

"Associated nat gas production really starting to fall now. $COG $AR"
X Link 2016-01-26T19:12Z 44.9K followers, [--] engagements

"NE basis getting tighter (TGPZ4 & Dom S). $COG $AR"
X Link 2016-01-26T19:13Z 44.9K followers, [--] engagements

"First $LINE now $CHK.Who is next @NDR_Research"
X Link 2016-02-08T14:47Z 44.9K followers, [--] engagements

"If the #oil rally is sustainable inventories will confirm.never confirmed the summer [----] rally. @NDR_Research"
X Link 2016-03-09T12:29Z 44.9K followers, [--] engagements

"Interesting chart. $MPC"
X Link 2016-04-14T18:00Z 44.9K followers, [--] engagements

"Worried about the NE product glut and run cuts why not be long $MPC or $VLO and short $PBF Rather than short CL"
X Link 2016-08-10T15:07Z 44.9K followers, [--] engagements

"@pradeeepk @pgoehaus33 yes. I recommend checking out $EPDs latest presentation.good overview of ethane developments"
X Link 2016-12-31T00:20Z 57.5K followers, [--] engagements

"$AR https://x.com/pgoehaus33/status/831178629988114432 @BrynneKKelly @Slangern ethane export facilities and new ethylene plants. check out $EPD pres from Wells conference in early december https://t.co/6tAS6jKRV1 https://x.com/pgoehaus33/status/831178629988114432 @BrynneKKelly @Slangern ethane export facilities and new ethylene plants. check out $EPD pres from Wells conference in early december https://t.co/6tAS6jKRV1"
X Link 2017-02-13T17:02Z 44.9K followers, [--] engagements

"$HAL approaching an interesting spot on the chart. https://x.com/WarrenPies/status/946853021560041479 $HAL getting into gear. Higher lows and higher highs. https://t.co/rfZu7pZqIT https://x.com/WarrenPies/status/946853021560041479 $HAL getting into gear. Higher lows and higher highs. https://t.co/rfZu7pZqIT"
X Link 2018-01-23T17:58Z 45.2K followers, [--] engagements

Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing