@W_Igoe Avatar @W_Igoe Seattle Biker

Seattle Biker posts on X about $spx, money, inflation, vix the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance countries stocks cryptocurrencies technology brands exchanges currencies us election travel destinations celebrities

Social topic influence $spx, money, inflation, vix, tariffs, $vix, spx, fed, gdp #316, russia

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @stlouisfed @grok @paulkrugman @bmhltd @jasonfurman @realdonaldtrump @billackman @davidsacks @elerianm @speakerjohnson @dampedspring @thestalwart @mcfaul @boeing @wil50133 @sullycnbc @jonhaidt @bobeunlimited @stephaniekelton @billbrowder

Top assets mentioned SPX6900 (SPX) Vixco (VIX) Limitus (LMT) Boeing Co (BA) Reserve (RSV) GrokCoin (GROKCOIN) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Eclipse (ES) IBM (IBM) Bitcoin (BTC) DIA (DIA)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@ModeledBehavior @JonSteinsson @jasonfurman @TimDuy Not a professional macroeconomist but practical user of derivative models. So 2cents. 1st good paper. 2nd inflation expectations is not an arbitrage model Fisher equilibrium is. In fact arbitrage models might explain a number of the crisis periods 3rd bankers knew they /1"
X Link 2022-02-13T13:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@jasonfurman Before putting total blame on the UK the US does bear some responsibility for its aggressive policy of exporting inflation through currency appreciation. The WSJ blasted Bostic on British pond controversy. I tracked four splits on the pound collapse over the last year. As treasury rates rose the pound initially rose as the US was the inflationary culprit. As the Fed became more aggressive with rate increases the power of the /1 https://t.co/YJawEt6eHx The WSJ blasted Bostic on British pond controversy. I tracked four splits on the pound collapse over the last year. As treasury"
X Link 2022-09-28T23:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"With the exception of the Dot-Com period and crash the market (SPX) seeks an equilibrium with the real 10-year interest rate. In this graph I normalize the SPX value with money supply (M2). I suspect this normalization is why volatilities are lower"
X Link 2023-02-11T15:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"I look at the graph and wonder. Jay Powell is doing the same. Real rates of interest needed to extraordinary heights to quell inflation. His term ends in [----] and that fight will continue afterwards Will the level of real wealth continue its current decline I am with the higher for longer crowd as the fight has just begun. #inflation"
X Link 2023-03-06T14:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Paraphrasing Adam Smith here: All wealth emanates for agriculture and mining. All other endeavors are value added activities. Today we might add intellectual mining but the country needs true "Net Investment" not financial shenanigans. The graph of real wealth below is instructive. Money creation does not create national wealth"
X Link 2023-03-17T14:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"I previously tweeted on using an adaptive expectations model to forecast a terminal yield curve. I also tweeted that the error term of our regressions allows us to create a covariance matrix"
X Link 2023-04-24T02:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"That covariance matrix allows me to build a Cholesky Matrix. Which in turn allows me to simulate the economy and the SPX markets going forward. The data uses data since [----] so many crisis periods are included in the volatility of simulation"
X Link 2023-04-24T02:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"This graph is just a normal "polyfit". No predictions but the graph does show the scale of the volatility collapse in equities. Dive boomer look to it. The risk is clearly a revival in volatility"
X Link 2023-06-21T14:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"The damage over the [--] percent target rate will take time to overcome. Let's face it the pandemic monetary expansion was a tax on everyone"
X Link 2023-07-12T17:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@UmmmSureBud @wil50133 @paulkrugman Oh a denier How original Pensions and life insurance companies' plans typically hold bonds and were blasted -just check out TLT last [--] years. Equity portfolios are rebounding but not yet at highs. Smaller companies rolling over debt at higher interest rates face challenges"
X Link 2023-07-12T18:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@DavidSacks You and Putin seem pretty happy about the outcome"
X Link 2023-07-13T13:56Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@BiiNunya Yes and the PPP loans to people who are already rich. All that fraud was paid through an inflation tax. Coin clipping is the oldest trick in the monetary book"
X Link 2023-07-13T02:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"For jollies my polyfit on $NVDA . These graphs are just mathematical exercises and not a prediction effort"
X Link 2023-08-26T14:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@JosephPolitano Fed owns [--] percent of the debt and returns interest payments to the Treasury Department. US taxpayers pay taxes on interest to guess who. the Treasury Department. Circular worries mate"
X Link 2023-08-30T23:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"I would think that by now that 10-year plus maturities would begin to flow to the 510-year bucket. Fed support"
X Link 2023-08-31T21:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@jasonfurman @JStein_WaPo Don't worry the Inflation Reduction Act should fix things"
X Link 2023-09-03T23:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@zpaikin The US military couldnt recover a square inch without air cover. Give Ukraine fighters credit: these men have balls of steel. Why These Ukrainian warriors are fighting for their freedom. Not just for themselves but for every man woman and child in Europe"
X Link 2023-09-04T09:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Current BBB Bond Spread index vs VIX. The current regime is the grey dots lower left. Slope and absolute level appear low relative to past regimes. Is the flood of deficit spending suppressing the bond risk profile I suspect so. Will it continue I doubt it"
X Link 2023-09-08T13:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@paulkrugman Paul we know inflation is down and it took high interest rates to accomplish that outcome. You constantly harp on this topic. That said housing affordability is well unaffordable. That fact frustrates many of the younger generation looking for a place to raise a family"
X Link 2023-09-10T15:16Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@paulkrugman My point is that these massive swings in rates and monetary policy create a bifurcated society an American caste system of sorts"
X Link 2023-09-10T15:55Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@GrangerE04117 Curious how difficult is it to remove a destroyed ship from a dry dock"
X Link 2023-09-13T20:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@anneapplebaum This war on authoritarianism can easily be lost. We look forward to @JakeSullivan46 for obfuscation on explaining why American are one again forced to fight abroad. The cost of that battle wont be $6 billion but $6 trillion"
X Link 2023-09-20T07:36Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Updated the 'adaptive expectations' regression on the Treasury yield curve. @SantelliRants would be the red line on the left graph; My expectations curve is the green line. The current market is blue dotted. The right graph is the difference. Getting close to my expectation"
X Link 2023-10-03T18:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"The new GDP numbers seem peculiar. Note the recent spike in Personal Consumption Expenditures. "Swifties" no doubt"
X Link 2023-10-04T18:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Relative to $ES these bank volatilities are elevated. $JPM earnings tomorrow. $BAC of course has those pesky HTM securities. It is good to be TBTF"
X Link 2023-10-12T22:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@BMHLTD I am shocked at the size of the deficit relative to GDP. As long as we stay at these levels of government spending we expect rates to remain elevated. If we continue a necessary march to war we could see a some sort of yield curve control as in the WW2 period"
X Link 2023-11-01T07:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@elerianm Not everyone lives off the largess of government spending (8 percent of GDP). Green projects are localized projects thus money is not distributed evenly. Furthermore might some voters have the expectation that this largess is . transitory"
X Link 2023-11-07T15:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@jhains2 @elerianm I meant to say deficit. Thanks for the clarification"
X Link 2023-11-07T15:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"The decline of oil and gas prices is clearly beneficial for consumers. Fred discontinued some inflation series. I therefore updated my graph and noted that the Median Inflation gauge is higher. The decline in oil and gas is masking inflation in other areas"
X Link 2023-12-13T15:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

""Median Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of core inflation calculated the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the Ohio State University. Median CPI was created as a different way to get a 'Core CPI' measure or a better measure of underlying inflation trends.""
X Link 2023-12-13T15:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"On $VIX: curious I added an adaptive expectation mean line to the histograph. My thought that adaptive mean would be less than the median but greater than the mode. Nope -- right in line with the mean"
X Link 2023-12-15T16:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"When discussing with my colleagues this question arose is the agressive use of $ODTE option changing market behavior I thus did a split regression to see if I can spot these changes. Look at the right table: during periods high volatility the lag beta is horrible- chaos ensues"
X Link 2023-12-15T16:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"People wonder how @Citadel and other MMs can consistently hit the home run. It is estimated that [--] percent of funds are buy-writes. Many $ODTE seller add fuel to the leverage that MMs obtain when negative events change market dynamics. Careful out there"
X Link 2023-12-15T16:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$VIX "Waiting for Godot". I recall the events of the two previous lows -- Barings Bank collapse after the Kyoto earthquake and the announcement of $HSBC taking losses on sub-prime loans. Stuff happens"
X Link 2023-12-16T00:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@ScottSkyrm Good lord US Federal reserve went for decades without such a sizable facility. You are aware there is a private for repurchase agreements does exist. Do you not believe in free markets"
X Link 2023-12-19T15:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Quiet holiday markets continue. I offer some CBOE VIX histographs of different asset classes: First IBM [--] percent of VIX prints were higher than the current market"
X Link 2023-12-20T15:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@SullyCNBC Meaning that people under [--] hold [--] percent of the wealth. You do know there is a retirement crisis"
X Link 2023-12-21T16:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Then this graph showing a steady increase in [--] year plus holdings"
X Link 2023-12-21T17:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"So as we move forward it will become harder for the Fed to continue balance sheet reduction with a small balance sheet"
X Link 2023-12-21T17:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Russia fires [---] cruise missiles into Ukraine and just one for jollies in to Poland David Sack thinks Western Powers should capitulate and negotiate with a proven killer.Hailing from South Africa David has no appreciation for American democracy. @SpeakerJohnson do your job Tom are you still pretending that you got Ukraine right How much more of a disaster does it need to be before you knock off your pompous know-it-all act Tom are you still pretending that you got Ukraine right How much more of a disaster does it need to be before you knock off your pompous know-it-all act"
X Link 2023-12-29T23:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@mariocavolo needs a geography lesson. North Korea borders two of the largest Asian trading countries by land and one by sea and is still unable to have a proper economy. What a stupid ignorant tweet by Musk North Korea like Cuba has been under brutal US sanctions for decades unable to be a part of the world unable to develop for its people. Any intelligent informed person knows this. Why would Musk mislead and spread this misinformation. What a stupid ignorant tweet by Musk North Korea like Cuba has been under brutal US sanctions for decades unable to be a part of the world unable to develop"
X Link 2023-12-31T09:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"In this series of graphs I post the highest correlated period in $SPX with the last four months. First Kennedy admistration vows to cut taxes. Green is the comparison blue is our recent history and red is [--] year following"
X Link 2023-12-31T16:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Vietnam war is winding down. Nixon bullies Arthur Burn into expanding money supply"
X Link 2023-12-31T16:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"More recently LTCM and continuous Fed bailout do help. Anyone remember Y2K"
X Link 2023-12-31T16:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Ending a war (Korean) cures all ails. But the gaming of money supply is not yet in our academic playbook. Have a Happy New Year"
X Link 2023-12-31T16:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Did any of these guys study simutaneous equations A lot goes on in a $23 trillion economy. The economy is dynamic and rearranges itself. Of course a self-inflicted supply chain matters and of course nominal interest rate levels matter (see housing). Silly debate for traders. OK since the debate is mostly happening here a thread on why I don't buy the argument that Fed rate hikes explain disinflation and unwinding of transitory shocks does; Mike Konczal says most of it but here's my version 1/ https://t.co/L3tEFjuU7E OK since the debate is mostly happening here a thread on why I don't buy the"
X Link 2023-12-31T16:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Econ_Marshall In aggregate the housing market drifts higher due to MMT(think $SPX). Locally R/E is akin to single stocks. Think Gary or Detroit. Being from Chicago Ive known families who lost everything due to bad leveraged R/E investments. Hoods fail.I like my embedded put option"
X Link 2024-01-05T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"I find it amazing that exogenous variables like [--] billion Asian workers ignored. These cute little graphs are just that graphs. Money supply matters: gold equities housing and other assets are rising in tandem. Disagreeing with an argument I didnt make. This was about [----]. Of course we had stimulus in [----]. And better than stagflation Disagreeing with an argument I didnt make. This was about [----]. Of course we had stimulus in [----]. And better than stagflation"
X Link 2024-01-06T22:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Speaking of silly graphs thanks to @JonHaidt @glukianoff this graph is as silly as the 1980s Laffer curve. The social science of DEI explained here. The simplistic description runneth amok ruining our national fabric. Rodney King was right: Cant we all just get along"
X Link 2024-01-06T23:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@JonHaidt I read your book. The graph is oversimplified nonsense. What struck me is that the graph is not constant in time or place. Thus as a science the graph cannot possibly be true. The non-science of economics is similar; the Laffer Curve became the 1980's darling. MMT is next"
X Link 2024-01-09T13:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@alifewithoutus @gunsnrosesgirl3 I do see the Lorentz contraction can you"
X Link 2024-01-09T13:56Z [--] followers, 58.7K engagements

"Well they do have a decent football team. IMPORTANT UPDATE The size of the DEI bureaucracy at the University of Michigan has doubled over the past two years and is now so big that its payroll could pay the in-state tuition of [----] undergraduate students. The average annual salary of these employees is nearly IMPORTANT UPDATE The size of the DEI bureaucracy at the University of Michigan has doubled over the past two years and is now so big that its payroll could pay the in-state tuition of [----] undergraduate students. The average annual salary of these employees is nearly"
X Link 2024-01-09T14:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Money supply and currency valuation: here I put together a series of slides on the ratio of M2 of the US versus the M2 of other currencies. You would think that the ratio of the two national money supply levels drive currency valuations. First"
X Link 2024-01-19T23:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Argentina on the left the two national M2 levels. Top Right the ratio of the two M2 level and the value of the USD versus the national currency. Bottom right the M2 ratio divided by the exchange rate. As I expect the level is very flat. Variations attributed to macro factors"
X Link 2024-01-19T23:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"A nice trend for Mexico"
X Link 2024-01-19T23:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Same for Brazil. I am betting of future political instability"
X Link 2024-01-19T23:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@paulkrugman In the graph below the target rate of [--] percent (blue line) was crossed rapidly by actual CPI on (Sept. 2021). Those with fixed income pensions are right to be skeptical. The red line of actual CPI is still rising"
X Link 2024-01-20T23:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Stuff happens when immigration enforcement is political. The Posse Comitatus Act is a United States federal law limits the powers of the federal government in the use of federal military personnel to enforce domestic policies within the United States. It's time for Biden to federalize the Texas National Guard and maybe send in the 101st Airborne like Little Rock. This nonsense needs to stop It's time for Biden to federalize the Texas National Guard and maybe send in the 101st Airborne like Little Rock. This nonsense needs to stop"
X Link 2024-01-23T23:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Powell's speech reminds me of why I look at the @ClevelandFed Median Consumer Price Index (blue line)"
X Link 2024-01-31T21:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"At least $GLW was a great tax loss for Schedule D. Ditto $NVDA"
X Link 2024-02-07T15:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$VIX rolls are costly. Was not well played on my part. Note the lack of $VIX skew on the brief downmove in $SPX"
X Link 2024-02-08T04:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Did I watch the Putin interview Nah I learned a valuable lesson decades ago. Don't squander time watching a publicity seeking journalist interviewing a known serial killer. Can we say [----] apartment buildings Beslan School massacre and now Ukraine Two hours WTF"
X Link 2024-02-09T13:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Per my last tweet. Some products just won't abide by interest rates increases. Why These products are not seasonal items. Rather they are substitutions. Consumers receive cash flow from deficit spending but are on a budget and act accordingly. My '70s experience.H4L"
X Link 2024-02-13T15:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Astonishing that the Speaker of the House for the United States Government @SpeakerJohnson accepts money from Russia. Konstantin Nikolaev Mikhail Yuriev and Andrey Kunatbaev own [--] percent of House Speaker Mike Johnson threw cold water on the Senate-passed foreign aid bill signaling he will not bring it for a vote as it stands. "The Republican-led House will not be jammed or forced into passing (the Senate's) foreign aid bill" he said. https://t.co/9mG7N62fBA House Speaker Mike Johnson threw cold water on the Senate-passed foreign aid bill signaling he will not bring it for a vote as it"
X Link 2024-02-14T22:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Thursday numbers today. The Fed will reduce Treasury holdings as stated policy. However expect Reverse Repurchase to decline as well; thus overall market liquidity remains constant. Here is the split regression. Current regime is the bottom grey line Current data point on left"
X Link 2024-02-22T15:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Rally from 11/22/2023 to 2/07/2024 is the pink dotted plot on the bottom center/right. A quick rally with slightly increasing $VIX volatility. Light blue is the recent consolidation at a higher $VIX"
X Link 2024-02-26T00:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"You can see the current $VIX level is slightly above the modal range. Last Price is the Black vertical line"
X Link 2024-02-26T00:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@ojblanchard1 Laws of physics are immutable. Laws concerning the Rights of Man are immutable. Regulations and statutes mutate within time and space but must yield to the Rights of Man"
X Link 2024-02-27T12:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"When welog the series we get a nice straight line. Real M2 expansion is above the trend line but closing in"
X Link 2024-02-27T22:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"We are an import nation with China. China will try to export its way out of its troubles. Will China also be exporting its price deflation I expect yes"
X Link 2024-02-27T22:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@JohnHCochrane Different policy regimes will yield different results. Using 100-Total Capacity(X-Axis) one see the Phillips Curve (Inflation Y Axis). Split Regression analysis looks for policy regimes"
X Link 2024-03-04T20:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Solution: Let market forces set short and long term interest rates. Stop fooling around with the money supply"
X Link 2024-03-21T11:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"History is fun and an April Fools joke is even better. Happy April Fool's Day. On this day in [----] Jonathan Swift -- years before publishing Gulliver's Travels and A Modest Proposal -- inflicted one of the first public April Fool's hoaxes on his reading public. It was as harsh and brutal as you'd expect from him. A thread: 🧵👇 https://t.co/HRQqIKZ83h Happy April Fool's Day. On this day in [----] Jonathan Swift -- years before publishing Gulliver's Travels and A Modest Proposal -- inflicted one of the first public April Fool's hoaxes on his reading public. It was as harsh and brutal as you'd"
X Link 2024-04-02T02:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@DavidSacks Read a little U.S. history President Wilson feared paying reparations to Germany for U.S. support to the U.K. and France. The situation in Europe was dire. Instead Wilson sent two million troops to end the war. I ask is @davidsacks willing pay Putin Without sufficient Western military aid Putin has no incentive to negotiate. He will absorb and obliterate and Ukraine. In negotiations Putin will demand reparations from Western Powers -- study WW I history. Trump/GOP will pay those reparations. https://t.co/825HyxMv9B https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1776955470911312143 Without sufficient"
X Link 2024-04-07T12:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@dampedspring Overall the higher term premium implies a higher risk in owning long term assets. We can see that risk profile at the 30k foot level. But . seel next comment"
X Link 2024-04-08T13:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@jessefelder Friedman was right. Just grow money supply at the mean growth of rate of the economy. Say [--] percent and let private and government actors compete for cash"
X Link 2024-04-17T21:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Had a W/E discussion on the potential consequences of a major war. Dragged out my WWII chart on May [--] [----] Germany invaded the Netherlands. In one week the $SPX fell from [-----] to [----] or [--] %. Red is the market Black is [--] day close to close volatility. Are you ready"
X Link 2024-04-22T03:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Big supporter of the Gerontocracy in his argument. Good God we had to watch Sen Feinstein be wheeled in to a find vote. Ill go with the Biden plan as long as all branches of government have term limits. Um there's this thing called elections that happen every [--] years for senators. Biden was [--] times re-elected. Judges on the other hand are appointed. It's hard to understand I know but important. Once you grasp the subtle distinction you'll realize how dumb you sound. Um there's this thing called elections that happen every [--] years for senators. Biden was [--] times re-elected. Judges on the other"
X Link 2024-07-30T18:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@DJDeepThought1 My bet is holdings will become part of foreign sovereign holdings. Basically the policy is cannibalizing U.S. wealth for social policy. We could sell Guam or Hawaii no"
X Link 2024-08-22T15:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"If truly transitory then the CPI should return to its previous price level. Will the apolitical Fed allow for a period of zero to negative CPI growth for mean reversion I doubt it"
X Link 2024-08-24T14:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Laptop repaired. First graph for Seattle friends. Noting that the unemployment rate hit [--] percent. Numbers on September [--] will be interesting. AI affecting high tech"
X Link 2024-08-30T20:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Like with the whole tipping trend on credit card restaurant purchases I find myself having to subtract the calculated tip on sales tax. These analytical polls never suggest inflation indexing capital gains for taxation. Is policy driven inflation considered a taxable event Analytical question: which would you prefer and why assuming these two tax options raised the same revenue: [--]. Taxing only realized capital gains at a 23.8% rate [--]. Taxing all gains realized and unrealized at a 5% rate Analytical question: which would you prefer and why assuming these two tax options raised the same"
X Link 2024-09-01T13:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"I am skeptical that lower rates will spur consumer consumption. First a graph. From 1958to [----] the ratio of consumption to GDP has steadily increased (58 to [--] percent). Since [----] the ratio has hit a plateau. Investment and government spending represent a barrier. /1"
X Link 2024-09-03T01:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Using a split regression we identify the regimes of our consumption ratio with 10-year Treasuries rates. We expect and note that higher real treasury rates do correlate with lower consumption. At elevated levels of consumption changes in interest rates have a negligible effect"
X Link 2024-09-03T01:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Four graphs on Treasury Maturities held by the Fed. Top: Slight rise in the [--] to 5-year bucket is due to normal runoff from the [--] to 10-year bucket. More interesting is the continuous rise in maturities held in [--] to 30-year bucket. A bit of yield curve control as the portfolio mortgage securities continues to decline"
X Link 2024-09-03T13:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Is inflation dead Not so sure using the Cleveland Fed's Median CPI"
X Link 2024-09-04T21:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"More here on the Median PCE Inflation http://clevelandfed.org http://clevelandfed.org"
X Link 2024-09-04T21:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"I watched the movie. Free money via MMT is very persuasive because money becomes free. Who doesnt like that By ignoring the inflation bias we witness MMT beget wealth through leverage. Donald Trump and other oligarchs acquire wealth by simply owing stagnating real estate assets. Those asset collect newly created monies via rising rents of MMT policies. It should no wonder that the Gini Coefficient continues its inexorable rise. Donald Trump had negative Net Worth during the late 1980s. Inflation not innovation bailed him out. Im probably biased but I think its a great movie. From independent"
X Link 2024-10-07T11:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"When the Federal Reserve creates new monies which economic agents are best in absorbing the cash flow Corporations and shareholders are one of a few absorbing states in the Markov process of economics. Another absorbing state are endowments not subject to Federal Taxes. Ive never seen a situation where the market soared as more and more people suffer economically. The misery index is off the charts. Something is just off about all of it. Usually when the economy is strong everyone is prospering. Thats just not the case this time. Ive never seen a situation where the market soared as more and"
X Link 2024-10-17T17:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Warren Buffet warns that the ratio of the SPX to GDP is alarmingly high. Looking at the log of GDP (X-Axis) versus the log of SPX(Y-Axis) we note very tight regime regressions. Might the continuous rise in the ratio be structural due to rising corporate retained earnings Consider the large cash pile of AAPL as an example. My contention fits in with my previous tweet stating that certain sectors of economy are in fact absorption states of a economic Markov Process. Food for thought"
X Link 2024-10-18T00:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Its election time Note the flat slope of the SPX to VIX ratio on the far right"
X Link 2024-10-21T21:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"How Machine Politics waste financial capital. Billions spent tied up on unused buildings. The proceed go to sycophants who bring out the vote. $1 billion is how much @ChiPubSchools wants to spend on its [--] emptiest schools. #CPS' [----] Facility Plan calls for $35M for Douglass and its [--] kids. That's a capital spend of $1 M per student at that empty school. Via @Wirepoints https://t.co/b8w0zbiKoA #twill @chicagosmayor https://t.co/t9HO5YSfSG $1 billion is how much @ChiPubSchools wants to spend on its [--] emptiest schools. #CPS' [----] Facility Plan calls for $35M for Douglass and its [--] kids."
X Link 2024-10-22T14:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"She is unfamiliar with one of the Cardinal rules of finance. Operating expenses are paid with current income; capital expenditures are paid with debt or equity. Creating money to give away "free and clear" does not increase the operating wealth of a nation. Capital and debt require a rate of return in excess of the cost of borrowing for national wealth to increase. Our national lack of wealth creation (perhaps negative) is evidenced by the increasing use of debt to pay interest expense on previously issued debt. Her continuous tautology of idiocy will lead to national ruin. This passage (from"
X Link 2024-10-24T12:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Noting $TLT lower again today. Can you spot the elephant in the room"
X Link 2024-10-29T15:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@BobEUnlimited @BobEUnlimited are rising bond yields a result of the 'crowding out effect' https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1851302928625373358 https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1851302928625373358"
X Link 2024-10-29T16:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Congress: Get your House in Order. @StanleyDrucken1 might be right. Trump: Tariffs are not going to cut it. The graph illustrates the history of Federal interest expense as a percent of Federal tax receipts (Left Y-Axis-red) and ten-year Treasuries (Right Y-Axis black)"
X Link 2024-11-01T15:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"My previous post suggested Congress needs to get its house in order lest interest expense dominate tax revenues. $TLT is again lower today. Note the ARIMA drift (12-month forecast - the shaded area) for the unemployment rate is higher. Deficits do matter"
X Link 2024-11-01T18:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"This Putin creatin is the most pathetic immigrant from South Africa. All for mass deportation if we can get rid of this guy. The most under-reported story in Washington is how much corrupt Ukrainian cash is trying to buy influence. It wasnt just Hunter Biden. Most of the warmongers are PAID. The most under-reported story in Washington is how much corrupt Ukrainian cash is trying to buy influence. It wasnt just Hunter Biden. Most of the warmongers are PAID"
X Link 2024-11-09T02:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"What hurt the Democrats @StephanieKelton and the dream of MMT. Inflation exceeded the target path by a significant margin. Ironically inflation allows millionaires to become billionaires -- see President Elect Trump and his real estate investments. Oh and according to @nardotrealtor the average age of homebuyers is now [--] years up from [--] in [----]. Thank you MMT"
X Link 2024-11-09T03:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"MMT theorists have zero financial credibility. Who would be the buyers of equity and debt sold by the wealthy to pay a proposed wealth tax Likely sovereign wealth funds. Thus the U.S. would be cannibalizing national wealth for a dubious gain. Such a policy would yield lower tax revenues and national wealth for future generations"
X Link 2024-11-09T20:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"We havent seen Sacks tweet so much since he was begging for deposit insurance on $17 trillion. Silicon Valley was a gimme for the rich far greater than the u.S. aid to Ukraine. Russian stooge. You called the MAGA movement worse than garbage. You should apologize. You called the MAGA movement worse than garbage. You should apologize"
X Link 2024-11-10T19:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Billbrowder This book explains why Britain and the EU do not cross Russia when it comes to money. Perhaps a brokerage fee of [--] percent would the oligarchy class"
X Link 2024-11-11T14:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Can you smell complacency Banks' stocks are up [--] percent and $TLT hit. Look at these credit spreads relative to $VIX. The lower left quadrant: notice the red arrow peeking from the X-Axis (VIX) vis-a-vis the $BBB spread on the Y-Axis. $BRKB is in treasuries for a reason"
X Link 2024-11-11T17:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Seems the definition of a financial top. Why should the U.S Treasury Department borrow money to buy $BTC Does the Treasury Department not have faith in its own currency created by the Fed If the Federal Reserve has any spine the Fed should no longer buy Treasuries to monetize such circular folly"
X Link 2024-11-12T03:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@andersostlund Logical conclusion for every country on the planet when mutual defense treaties are only worth the paper written on -- Budapest Memorandum for one"
X Link 2024-11-13T16:46Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@TheStalwart Oh and half of this book is how Gilbralter gaming authorities introduced gambling to the world. https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1855975392945020985 @Billbrowder This book explains why Britain and the EU do not cross Russia when it comes to money. Perhaps a brokerage fee of [--] percent would the oligarchy class. https://t.co/7zCABto3wt https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1855975392945020985 @Billbrowder This book explains why Britain and the EU do not cross Russia when it comes to money. Perhaps a brokerage fee of [--] percent would the oligarchy class. https://t.co/7zCABto3wt"
X Link 2024-11-13T22:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@mtmalinen @realDonaldTrump War mongering Russia is losing [----] troops a day on a failed invasion. You say you are a market guy but do you ever take losses"
X Link 2024-11-14T16:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Traded interbank currencies for years. Something like [--] percent of interbank dealing are spot traders banging around markets to identify who is trading and their bias via the broker market. Central banks appreciate the bank speculation as it increases liquidity for commercial needs. Large commercial orders might be a direct call to banks to accommodate customers. The entire dealing room will participate. Overall money supply ratios between sovereigns are what drive values Here is a chart I use to illustrate that concept"
X Link 2024-11-15T22:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@BMHLTD They know the art of shorting securities no doubt"
X Link 2024-11-16T08:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"It is the time of the year to bring out the presidential scorecard. I will say Clinton was our best President. Biden's term is exceptionally good but inflation's narrative is a giant killer. @BillClinton @paulkrugman @jasonfurman @davidaxelrod"
X Link 2024-11-17T15:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Almost every economic post I see on these proposed tariffs assumes will NOT see counterparty blowbacks. Correct. Economic theory predicts that tariffs will change relative prices. They will not create a persistent increase in the rate of change of prices aka inflation. The puzzle to me is why the government budget deficit currently running at 7% has not at least not yet Correct. Economic theory predicts that tariffs will change relative prices. They will not create a persistent increase in the rate of change of prices aka inflation. The puzzle to me is why the government budget deficit"
X Link 2024-11-17T17:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@amuse Just return the nukes and long-range bombers to Ukraine relinquished after signing the Budapest Memorandum. That proposal might hasten peace. Ukraine received $3 billion is debt forgiveness and is now taking on a trillion in damages"
X Link 2024-11-18T21:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"The diplomatic and human off-ramp is for Putin to leave Ukraine. Seems simple. Why should Ukraine capitulate for your fears. Our older generation lived through the cold war and Cuban missile crisis. You are a terrible poker player. Sell $VIX and your fears. https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1858876199562605115 https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1858876199562605115"
X Link 2024-11-19T17:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Nope not worried about the nuclear war. Split regression: $VIX and $SPX "
X Link 2024-11-19T22:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) did not originate during Alan Greenspan's tenure as Federal Reserve Chairman nor was it an official policy of his era. I started my career in capital markets in the early 1980s when daily returns on the S&P [---] were consistently negatively correlated with changes in Treasury yields. This relationship made sense in a traditional economic framework: falling yields lowered discount rates increasing the present value of future cash flows which boosted equities. However around [----] this dynamic shifted. The continuous bailouts of capital markets brought about a false"
X Link 2024-11-22T17:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"There is a nascent movement advocating for the U.S. Treasury to establish a Bitcoin reserve alongside efforts to make Bitcoin sales tax-free. In a bold and controversial move Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis recently proposed selling U.S. gold reserves to acquire Bitcoin. Preposterous you might saybut in todays unpredictable political and economic environment such an idea raises legitimate questions. Cui bono Who benefits This push for Bitcoin draws a striking parallel to the "silver bloc" of the 1930sa coalition of Western senators who lobbied for the Silver Purchase Act of [----]. Their goal"
X Link 2024-11-22T21:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@StephanieKelton Clinton actually did a good job. Inflation is the incumbency slayer. https://x.com/w_igoe/status/1858343316712276161s=46&t=i6yxGY49qfWkzxyAehf4Uw This dummy variable regression is a beauty. Changes on $SPX daily prices versus each President since the Coolidge administration. Recall Clinton's slogan "It's the economy stupid". Well he was right. Only two presidents have beta coefficient that are significant. Clinton https://t.co/01hKNWpycN https://x.com/w_igoe/status/1858343316712276161s=46&t=i6yxGY49qfWkzxyAehf4Uw This dummy variable regression is a beauty. Changes on $SPX"
X Link 2024-11-23T23:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Be wary of a simultaneous rise in Term Premium and equity markets. I added this chart because of my recent post using ChatGPT"
X Link 2024-11-24T21:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Added a mean line to the graph"
X Link 2024-11-24T21:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Scrolling through X this morning I see lots of chatter about Bitcoin but no mention of December [--] as Pearl Harbor Day. Its another reminder that I come from a different generation than many who are active on this platform. Getting ready to leave X"
X Link 2024-12-07T17:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"I know pornography when I see it. Graph on top: Changes in monthly M2 versus Sticky price inflation year-to-year. Below is the bar chart of cross correlation for different lag periods"
X Link 2024-12-07T19:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Analyzing the hidden Markov model for 10-year treasury rates since 1962: Current rates (3.20%-5.22%) are the most common regime with a 98.7% chance of staying in this range. Transition probabilities: 1.1% to higher rates 0.6% to lower. As the Fed contemplates cuts history highlights the long-term risk of higher rates. Trump may want rates lower but Congress will have to get its fiscal house in order before lower LT rates become a reality"
X Link 2024-12-11T21:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"With $BTC volatility at so high a level why is this pseudo-asset deserving of reserve currency status The daily shifts between transition states is far too high. Grok response is next 1/2"
X Link 2024-12-12T00:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Here is #grok's response. The transition states depicted in your image for Coinbase Bitcoin's log differences from [----] to [----] offer a detailed look at the asset's volatility and market behavior through a hidden Markov model (HMM) framework. Here's an analysis based on the visual and numerical data provided: Volatility and State Transitions: The upper left graph shows the log differences over time indicating periods of high volatility especially noticeable in the earlier years (around 2017-2018 and 2020-2021) which are typical for Bitcoin. This volatility is a significant factor when"
X Link 2024-12-12T00:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"I found this principal component analysis interesting. Also interesting in light of @dampedspring analysis of corporate bond and treasuries. Note PC [--] in the bar chart. I asked #grok for an analysis. I think Andy's analysis is more compelling. 1/3"
X Link 2024-12-12T02:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Here is @dampedspring 's link. Grok's response is next. Amazing how grok can analyze an image 2/3 https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1857563248872272105 Credit spreads are not tightening as much as you may think - [---] One way of measuring value in corporate bonds is to compare their yield to a treasury bond of similar maturity. When doing this credit spreads have fallen all year and are at historic tights. BUT this is https://t.co/rIAhSceURZ https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1857563248872272105 Credit spreads are not tightening as much as you may think - [---] One way of measuring value in"
X Link 2024-12-12T02:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Using a probit model for recession detection with the variables of the unemployment rate industrial production CPI changes personal consumption and S&P [---] shifts the probability of being in a recession period is slim. The only variables worth watching are the S&P [---] and the unemployment rate. Otherwise invest wisely and ignore the noise"
X Link 2024-12-15T16:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"For jollies I asked grok for thoughts on the image. Pretty amazing. @elonmusk This image appears to be a probit regression model used for predicting recessions accompanied by a time series plot of recession probabilities. Probit Regression Model: Factors Considered: Unemployment Rate S&P [---] Log Difference Personal Consumption Expenditures Industrial Production Index and Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers. Model Statistics: Beta: Coefficients for each factor. StdErr: Standard Error of the coefficients. T-Stat: T-statistic values indicating the significance of each factor. P-Value:"
X Link 2024-12-15T17:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Had a long discussion on this concept this morning. The Fed and other Central Banks need to understand that they need to re-establish credibility -- fast. If BTC becomes legitimized fiat currencies will be competing with a transactional BTC- type currency. Just imagine if employees begin to demand payment in BTC rather than a depreciating paper. Countries would now need to deal with the prospect of deflation -- a fixed supply of money (BTC) will bring that outcome about. Going to be an interesting year - 2025"
X Link 2024-12-17T03:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"I am nervous about the elevated levels of the $NDX. I offer another sign of toppish markets -- we are seeing a breakdown of traditional relationships between indices. Here I display the correlation of daily return between $SPX and $DIA. Note the bottom left table and note that we are in state [--] with (359) observations. The predominate correlation state is state is state 4(1473) observations"
X Link 2024-12-17T15:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Very organized relationship between $SPX and $VIX. On the far right pale blue fifty-six data points right in a row. That includes the election"
X Link 2024-12-17T18:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TheStalwart DJIA ain't your father's DJIA. The top weight is now $GS. In this tweet you can see the breakdown of the relationship between $SPX and $DJIA. https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1869036100905533733 I am nervous about the elevated levels of the $NDX. I offer another sign of toppish markets -- we are seeing a breakdown of traditional relationships between indices. Here I display the correlation of daily return between $SPX and $DIA. Note the bottom left table and note that https://t.co/oJjXBBGbec https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1869036100905533733 I am nervous about the elevated levels of the"
X Link 2024-12-17T20:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@BMHLTD Powell blew it. Fed lost credulity. Lowering rate and LT rates rise. Fed's inflation models have high volatility. The market expected four cuts next year but only getting two. Also people had a wonderful year and profit taking is not a terrible thing to do"
X Link 2024-12-18T21:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@k_sonin @DavidSacks loves this guy"
X Link 2024-12-19T18:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"At heart I am a monetarist (UofC graduate). The recent explosion of asset prices is a direct result of monetary expansion. I offer an interesting analysis using Hidden Markov Processes. You can see from the top line chart that the recent COVID money expansion is now on the target logistic line. Interestingly the top table in the left quadrant shows we are now in State [--] and likely to transition to State [--] where M2 growth rate of M2 is most frequent -- [--] percent of outcomes. 1/3"
X Link 2024-12-22T18:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"My concern is that the value of the S&P [---] far outstrips the growth in Federal reserve liquidity. Yes we had a nice bounce from the lows of last week. I do not expect that bounce to last. The unknown policies outcomes of the incoming administration might well conflict with the Federal Reserve's desire to return to normalcy. 2/3"
X Link 2024-12-22T18:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"I will also point out the level of reverse repurchases agreements is close to zero. Any additions to liquidity will be made using repos. That process will be our proof of normalcy in [----]. 3/3"
X Link 2024-12-22T18:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Money growth should grow at the natural real growth rate of the economy. That rate is about [--] percent in real terms. The Federal Reserve has a habit of bailing out bad investments by printing money. We might get back to [--] percent thanks to Chinas excess investment and not because of U.S. production. You might also ask why the Federal Reserve feels it is necessary to inflate away the benefits of technological advancement. Why Because our economy is based on financial leverage and not true wealth creation"
X Link 2024-12-24T01:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Let's do bond math without doing traditional bond math. @elerianm and others suggest that rates are going higher. I concur as large deficits plus a deregulated private economy will create considerable crowding out effect when competing for funds. The Federal Reserve is not likely to accommodate. What does the current Bond market suggest Use FRED data to find out. Sneek preview to the answer: the forward-forward graph suggest that the bond market is pricing for higher rates going forward. See graph on the lower right"
X Link 2024-12-26T15:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"So how do I calculate forward forwards I simply look at the ratio of the discount factors for each period using the period discount factor as a base"
X Link 2024-12-26T15:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Applying then by deflating the ratio by the number of periods between the base period and the forward period we get the forward-forward rate"
X Link 2024-12-26T15:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"The atmosphere of Mars is the layer of gases surrounding Mars. It is primarily composed of carbon dioxide (95%) molecular nitrogen (2.85%) and argon (2%).3 It also contains trace levels of water vapor oxygen carbon monoxide hydrogen and noble gases.352 The atmosphere of Mars is much thinner and colder than Earth's having a max density 20g/m3 (about 2% of Earths value) with a temperature generally below zero down to [---] Celsius. The average surface pressure is about [---] pascals (0.088psi) which is 0.6% of the Earth's value"
X Link 2024-12-27T02:55Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Go Irish I forgot the Federal Reserve numbers reported during the Sugar Bowl. Big add to liquidity due to year end window dressing. The recent decline in the $SPX is notable in the bar chart on the bottom right"
X Link 2025-01-03T15:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"The U.S. made the mistake of relying on cheap production from overseas. The strategy decimated hundreds of small towns across America. Buying cheap gas from Russia was akin to buying cheap crack cocaine. Very hard to kick that habit. You always want to go back to your dealer for the next fix"
X Link 2025-01-06T07:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"While $MSTR and $BTC are nicely correlated I suspect the correlation will breakdown for obvious reasons. Note the lower teal line on the top right quadrant. Debt leverage will impair equity valuations"
X Link 2025-01-09T14:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Fed liquidity returns to normal levels after year-end window-dressing. M2 continues its rise. Inflation is not returning to [--] percent any time soon"
X Link 2025-01-11T02:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will have his hands full. I have no idea what the next administration is thinking. Do you"
X Link 2025-01-13T16:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Logistic growth curve for China imports: Note the subtitle figure of "Top" $41 billion. China's economic investment assumed unlimited growth. That growth isn't happening. The logistic curve combined with Trump tariffs will hold that cap"
X Link 2025-01-15T03:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@heimbergecon The why rely on the United States for Defense"
X Link 2025-01-15T19:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@EchoesFromND I was at Notre Dame School shut down for days. University of Maryland was able to fly in for a basketball game. Free attendance to all who could get on to campus"
X Link 2025-01-15T20:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Hmm were the inflation figures good yesterday Seems to me that the slope on the Target Error is increasing. Inflation is the beast that crushes any Presidency. President-elect Trump and Scott Bessent better understand that"
X Link 2025-01-16T15:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Using FRED data the current yield on the 10-Year Treasury is now at [----] percent. Given the historical data of the ten-year treasury this yield places the market in State [--] where the yield range is between [----] and [----] percent. I suspect the market will remain within this range until the Treasury Department's policies become more transparent. The transition probability of staying in State [--] is [-----] indicating a high likelihood of persistence in this state according to the transition matrix provided. See the center grid on the left"
X Link 2025-01-16T21:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"A bit of fun with #grok this morning. The image is constructed using monthly return since Jan. [----]. Look at the transition matrix of Row [--] and consider the recent market's activity. I asked #GrokAI to look at the image with this question. "Looking at the State [--] row. If you have a bad month of returns. There is a [--] percent chance that returns will continue to be bad in state [--]. But a high probability of a market bounce beyond state [--] correct" Here is Grok's response: "Looking at the transition probabilities from State [--] which represents a "bad month of returns" based on the context: There's"
X Link 2025-01-18T16:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"The correlation between DJIA and SPX is normalizing post-2023 after the Mag [--] stocks' influence. The analysis shows the extreme recent correlation disconnect between &SPX & $DJIA is over: #stockmarket #finance #analysis"
X Link 2025-01-19T15:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Nope I (er my probit analysis) don't see a recession. Not even close. Both recession indicators have weakened. They are still flashing warning but no longer rising. 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada - perhaps instant recession or massive inflation - or both No one really knows what Trump will do. https://t.co/U03SuECati Both recession indicators have weakened. They are still flashing warning but no longer rising. 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada - perhaps instant recession or massive inflation - or both No one really knows what Trump will do. https://t.co/U03SuECati"
X Link 2025-01-23T22:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"No real changes in the Fed Balance sheet. The market rally continues despite the concerns of many pundits including myself"
X Link 2025-01-23T23:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Does a stable economy (low unemployment rate) beget complacency in the national savings rate It appears so. Does consumer complacency in saving (profligacy in spending) lead to a higher Gini coefficient Just asking. Note the jump in savings only when the unemployment rate rises. Using a polynomial distributed lag (PDL) model here"
X Link 2025-02-04T16:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Term Premium for the 10-year Treasury is healthy. With the unemployment rate at the four percent handle and heavy deficit spending we can expect that premium to hold"
X Link 2025-02-07T14:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"The adaptive model for the yield curve is right on target"
X Link 2025-02-07T14:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@MikeCostarell24 @BillAckman Except the ban applies to all U.S. Navy vessels"
X Link 2025-03-01T22:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Despite the 'rapid' declines in $SPX the corresponding $VIX rise is organized. Note the purple line on the right"
X Link 2025-03-07T14:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@BMHLTD What remarks Was cycling. You just can't keep up with it"
X Link 2025-03-07T18:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Hope is not a strategy. Will this attack stiffen the spine of the GOP I doubt it. I now offer a chart of $SPX and day to day volatility prior to WWII. Note the biggest drop in $SPX was not Pearl Harbor Day but the May [----] invasion of the Neatherlands. RUSSIA ATTACKED AMERICA DAYS AGO & NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT ITvs On March [--] a U.S. military tanker was RAMMED by a cargo ship. The captain Russian. The victims American. Do you really think its Ukraine that doesnt want peace Think again https://t.co/9g6nWDG8Tx RUSSIA ATTACKED AMERICA DAYS AGO & NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT ITvs On March [--] a U.S."
X Link 2025-03-12T15:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"You will also note that after the attack on Pearl Harbor America responded with overwhelming force. $SPX follows American strength not subservient appeasement"
X Link 2025-03-12T15:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"My chart on the S&P [---] prior to World War II includes annotations highlighting key historical events. Notably the appeasement strategy with Germany failed. The sharpest decline in the S&P [---] occurred when Germany invaded the Netherlands in May1940 not on Pearl Harbor Day December [----]. After the Netherlands invasion markets continued their decline as the United States remained inactive and watched the European horror unfold from afar. Pearl Harbor was a shock that awakened a sleeping giant. Following the attack markets rallied continuously. Making America great again means standing as a"
X Link 2025-03-12T16:54Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Wow What an R-Square- [----] My favorite indicator for the CPI is still beer I don't own a TV so I typically head to the pub for sporting events. With March Madness coming up I'll need a loan. In this regression I look at the highest of correlation of consumer component to fit the CPI"
X Link 2025-03-13T13:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"If Denmark declares article [--] is the United States obligated the defend against it own aggression Someone please help me on this one. The Kingdom of Denmark; You need to Invoke Article [--] of the NATO. ASAP. The Kingdom of Denmark; You need to Invoke Article [--] of the NATO. ASAP"
X Link 2025-03-13T21:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Thought the spread between the U6 rate and the reported unemployment rate might be a leading indicator on the economy. Not so sure. we'll find out"
X Link 2025-03-18T13:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Thursday numbers out. $SPX and #M2 ratio"
X Link 2025-03-20T21:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Billionaires thought it smart to fund a KGB takeover The backlash is going to be massive. Tax the Rich will leave them with dinghies for party boats. The fat lip technology of wives becomes useful as life jackets. In economics there is always a reversion to the mean. Thank you Tucson and the more than [-----] people who came out to see me @AOC and Rep. @GregCasar. In just [--] events we had over [-----] join us to stand up to authoritarianism & oligarchy and stop any bill that slashes Medicaid to give billionaires even more tax breaks. https://t.co/gcbiD5nrT2 Thank you Tucson and the more than 23000"
X Link 2025-03-23T08:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Balance of Payments: Nice little dive on that last datapoint. Next release date April [--] right after the 'hard' now 'flexible' tariff deadline of April [--]. During the 1980s period this number was the MOST important number for the FOREX market"
X Link 2025-03-23T23:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@RickSantelli of @CNBC a fellow Chicago my favorite financial newscaster. Donald Trump is known to watch the network and does in fact keep track of the market. Note the date of the recent $SPX low and the #VIX high. I am conviced the "THIS IS INSANE" comment altered the administrations thinking"
X Link 2025-03-24T14:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Rose Mary Woods (a.k.a. @PeteHegseth) explaining to congressional investigators how @JeffreyGoldberg was included in secret War Plans"
X Link 2025-03-25T01:37Z [---] followers, 16.5K engagements

"@Dennis_Rodkin The Palmolive beacon had quite a history as well thanks to the taller structures built afterwards. Nice post"
X Link 2025-03-25T13:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TgMacro This HHM article aid in explaining the dynamics of the $VIX $SPX relationship. https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1904875688848744689 https://t.co/yQ3LSUO3Ak https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1904875688848744689 https://t.co/yQ3LSUO3Ak"
X Link 2025-03-26T13:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@MAGALieTracker Nice watch. It appears that Kristi Noem may have worn a $60K Rolex during her visit to the El Salvadoran prison camp today. https://t.co/5QWfqzrtzN It appears that Kristi Noem may have worn a $60K Rolex during her visit to the El Salvadoran prison camp today. https://t.co/5QWfqzrtzN"
X Link 2025-03-27T08:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@MeghanMcCain @TulsiGabbard Thats fantastic. Russia trusts her too. A marvelous coincidence"
X Link 2025-03-27T11:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@McFaul But then we are friends with MIGHTY Russia GDP per capita of a whopping $10000 -- sans toilets. Just over that of Suriname. Just bonkers"
X Link 2025-03-29T17:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@TheStalwart Going to be a mean-ass Gini coefficient if the government powers allow for the continued distribution of economic data. I am beginning the think DOGE might do a number on FRED"
X Link 2025-03-31T13:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Interesting regime graph. The $SPX / $VIX teal line is still the current regime. However the dispersion of the $VIX around the regression line is wide. Vol traders and MM are undoubtedly loving volatility. I expect Citadel to announce some dang good profits"
X Link 2025-03-31T15:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"This looks nice. Real Final Sales of GDP"
X Link 2025-04-01T20:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"It is said that the tariffs will be the largest tax increase ever. However the tax is voluntary as you pay only if you consume. Rather might the Rate of Personal Savings be a logical response Here is the history of the Savings Rate versus the Average Tariff Rate"
X Link 2025-04-02T19:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@Utahdesert @JustinWolfers Food and shelter are local and not imported. Do you really need a rubber ducky for the bathtub Maybe cut coffee consumption"
X Link 2025-04-02T21:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@BMHLTD If you are using interactive brokers and have coding skills you can build an algo to do the trades for you. I've had algos run all night gamma trading"
X Link 2025-04-03T13:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Damnation The Orange Guy did it President Trump officially had the worst inaugural start of any President including President Hoover. Damn he is good"
X Link 2025-04-05T01:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"For the $SPX my "Find Similar" routine shows that even with the two-day decline markets most resemble the start of the Vietnam War. I joined Twitter in [----] because of Trumps bizarre market-moving tweets. Now his actions are even more insane. Worse his dictatorial style wont allow him to admit mistakes. Rather his followersI'm reading the X threadsrationalize his behavior and illogic. Russian bots amplify his desire to destroy the middle class to save the nation. This logic is Stalinist thinking and we cannot predict the outcome. I fear that on Monday our great nation may be transformed in"
X Link 2025-04-05T12:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"They say that volatility comes in waves. $VIX"
X Link 2025-04-05T15:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Take away government spending (Kalecki Effect) then add tariffs and general uncertainty on investment will force Corporate Profits to revert to the mean growth rate"
X Link 2025-04-06T20:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@BillAckman @realDonaldTrump Yes I enjoy financial history. Here is the historical consequence of Smoot-Hawley. https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1909068221929640094 History rhymes. Smoot-Hawley signed into law June [--] [----]. Top Graph is the SPX for the 4-year period following. Bottom Graph is the 90-day close to close volatility measurement. Grey period is the recession. Yes volatility can go higher. https://t.co/X06CpbvM5f https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1909068221929640094 History rhymes. Smoot-Hawley signed into law June [--] [----]. Top Graph is the SPX for the 4-year period following. Bottom Graph is"
X Link 2025-04-07T02:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Does anybody recall Japan bombed Pearl Harbor in retaliation for the oil embargo placed by the United States Just asking. Given China's shipbuilding capacity we won't win this one"
X Link 2025-04-07T15:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@mytk56 @McFaul Typical MAGA response. You don't believe Japan bombed Pearl Harbor"
X Link 2025-04-07T16:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"President Trump wants to eliminate the income tax and replace it with a [----] tariff system. Ok let's look at that concept in a [----] world where we have social security numerous subsidies world's most powerful military etc. At the same time we have the high bar of being revenue neutral. In the top chart I graph total Federal Expenditures against total imports of goods and services. At the bottom is the simplistic ratio of expenditures / imports. The required tariff rate is well over [---] percent. You can be sure that won't happen. A VAT or consumption tax will be required. 1/3"
X Link 2025-04-08T14:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@BillAckman @realDonaldTrump Nothing is free and to replace a federal income tax with tariffs is just nuts. https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1909609960516075960 President Trump wants to eliminate the income tax and replace it with a [----] tariff system. Ok let's look at that concept in a [----] world where we have social security numerous subsidies world's most powerful military etc. At the same time we have the high bar of being https://t.co/ow2rPsvmjr https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1909609960516075960 President Trump wants to eliminate the income tax and replace it with a [----] tariff system. Ok let's"
X Link 2025-04-08T14:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Grok found a picture of Peter Navarro discussing tariffs with Ron Verra a.k.a. Harvey"
X Link 2025-04-08T15:57Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@Nouriel Also helps when Russians bail him out on a $300 million Deutsche Bank loan. I see no bailout with this baddie"
X Link 2025-04-09T06:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Using yesterday's yield curve and the adaptive expections regression model is today's bond price movement just a regression to the mean. I look at this chart weekly. Blue line is yesterday's close Green line is my expectation Red line is the average over the entire yield curve data set"
X Link 2025-04-09T12:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@EffMktHype The Chaos is by design. Trump put the entire equity market into a disequilibrium. https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1910330239374532888 https://t.co/QvKzgqxPI6 https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1910330239374532888 https://t.co/QvKzgqxPI6"
X Link 2025-04-10T14:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@judahrhodie Absolutely true. Even the treasury secretary has no understanding of the nuts and bolts of capital markets. Lutnick was merely a broker"
X Link 2025-04-11T03:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Curious with the long-term correlation of changes between the $SPX and the #treasuries. Depends on the context of the times. Note the negative correlation pre-1998 and then positive thereafter"
X Link 2025-04-11T20:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@davidfrum The Chicago alderman Paddy' Bauler quipped Chicago aint ready for reform. Paddy didnt have Signal and never spoke phone. Rather he would just say Lets have a nice quiet conversation on State Street. Washington learned the rules"
X Link 2025-04-12T07:16Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

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