[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

@TMTLongShort Avatar @TMTLongShort Just Another Pod Guy

Just Another Pod Guy posts on X about china, tariffs, bessent, trade war the most. They currently have XXXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.

Engagements: XXXXXX #

Engagements Line Chart

Mentions: XX #

Mentions Line Chart

Followers: XXXXXX #

Followers Line Chart

CreatorRank: XXXXXXX #

CreatorRank Line Chart

Social Influence #

Social category influence countries finance travel destinations cryptocurrencies stocks technology brands social networks gaming celebrities automotive brands

Social topic influence china #746, tariffs #330, bessent #306, trade war #420, over the #2113, countries #1499, beijing #324, taiwan #50, chains #148, has been

Top assets mentioned Intel Corporation (INTC) MP Materials Corp. (MP) Lithium Americas Corp. Common Shares (LAC) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

Top Social Posts #

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"@cornell_pj I only own gold and BTC in my personal account. I posted two days ago re BTC. For my day job I cant discuss due to compliance"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-12T12:41Z 21.6K followers, XXX engagements

"Nothing scares elites more than being called traitorous commie lovers When the narrative shifts from trade war because Trump likes tariffs to economic warfare with an adversarial China everyone will fall in-line because the rhetoric and patriotism you are going to see ignited will scare even the likes of Kyle Bass. The script writes itself and there is a lot of (justified) pent up anger looking for an external target. This is important to anticipate because it drastically increases the probabilities of getting through bipartisan legislation that right now seem impossible. Be ready for the"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-14T17:18Z 21.8K followers, 6727 engagements

"Greenland is not the default path. Its deposits would be a nightmare to process. But it is an option at much much higher prices in a decoupling. Think of it as an unappealing put option"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-12T16:43Z 21.8K followers, 6459 engagements

"We spent decades going to war to secure access to oil so consumers can drive around cheaply and you accepted that without question. But I tell you that Washington is willing to accept lower stock prices if it ensures they secure the critical inputs to retaining hegemony and you call me retarded. 🤷♂"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-12T21:34Z 21.8K followers, 17.7K engagements

"In this analogy the Chinese are seeing the kids meeting up at the park and is actively throwing a tantrum. Trump is saying sure come join but only if you fundamentally change who you are and stop being a dick. Both Trump and the Chinese know that isnt going to happen. The problem is if the kid who was left out throws too much of a tantrum hell remind the other kids why he was left out of the new game in the first place"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-12T22:42Z 21.8K followers, 14.1K engagements

"Let him cook 👨🍳 😉 (Get it Cook)"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-14T19:42Z 21.8K followers, 9762 engagements

"This is absolutely correct and the most common pushback Ive been getting over the last six months to the decoupling thesis. Its also the angle Ive dedicated a large number of tweets explaining. Because this is the primary asymmetrical weakness it was addressed head on by: First taking the batteries out of the smoke detector that is the bond markets. Short dating issuance getting capital commits from Gulf states that Trump has discretion over stablecoin legislation control of treasury and soon Fed SLR regs etc Second using this new found freedom to pump the economy (OBBB) and bribe voters"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-11T23:42Z 21.6K followers, 19.8K engagements

"Who gets Taiwan will be the last step in all this never the first. But until the very last moment it is game theory optimal to act as if TSMC is safe while throwing as much fuel on the AI capex fire as possible. Because the higher hyperscaler capex demand climbs the more aggressively TSMC will ramp new capacity and the higher the mix of American customers it has. Therefore if you want the AZ fabs to be ramped as fast as possible you make believe Taiwan is safe even if you anticipate it will be rubble in two years. To be clear that is not my base case. Just explaining how to frame it"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-14T20:45Z 21.8K followers, 9277 engagements

"@mingfang1979 @Crussian17 Bessent"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-15T18:18Z 21.8K followers, XXX engagements

"@Brad_Setser @Lingling_Wei The end state is decoupling. Trump knew that. It was inevitable the moment that cardboard tariff chart debuted on the White House lawn"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-10T18:05Z 21.8K followers, 5470 engagements

"True. But reflexively being pro-detente when the default path is erosion of hegemony is also self-defeating. Anyone who understands the CCPs aspirations deeply intuits why status-quo is inherently defeatist. Some people are incentivized to take the naive lens by default either due to portfolio holdings or due to proximity to those who are pushing a more pacifist stance (e.g. Gurley). I dont blame them - China has done an incredible job capturing institutions that are upstream of narrative. But Washington is already well past the point of being fooled. Wall st is a step behind. I tweet mostly"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-12T20:29Z 21.8K followers, 12.8K engagements

"AI and China arent two separate topics - not just because of semi supply chains thats obvious. And not just because of military use cases. And not just because of negotiating leverage with allies. They are inextricably linked because outsourcing to China was the first major deflationary shock where we took existing jobs and replaced them with non-American labor at a much lower cost. And replacing or supplementing existing workers with cheap AI agents or robots will do something very similar. Except this time we will have complete control. Because (unless youre Yudkowski) its unlikely that AI"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-15T19:15Z 21.8K followers, 8029 engagements

"Notice how he framed it as depression for his country and not depression for our countries Narrative warfare people. The frog is being boiled. And Beijing can either watch helplessly as Trump solidifies a global trade block against them or act belligerently to halt progress. Rock and a hard place for a country that prides itself on being methodical and deliberate. Because if Xi acts too aggressively he re-enforces the notion of the very threat Washington is highlighting as the rationale for ultimate decoupling. Every day Trump can push off an escalation is a win. When Xi goes gloves off it"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-12T17:26Z 21.8K followers, 46.3K engagements

"Interesting notion that China might aggressively push on humanoid robot production as a way to incentivize countries to stay in its trade orbit. I wouldnt be surprised by this. And one would think they have an extreme advantage here due to machining expertise and manufacturing scale. However while building a robot is not as simple as building a toaster it is far less complex vs say an iPhone. And we already have much of the capex pre-existing as part of decades supporting the Western auto sector. And most importantly by far what drive the utility of a robot is its level of cognition. And here"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-14T14:25Z 21.8K followers, 8829 engagements

"The isolationist camp (Vance etc) are a gift to the the salvage globalization by restructuring it camp (Bessent etc) because it lets them play good cop bad cop credibly"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-14T13:52Z 21.8K followers, 7763 engagements

"@JerrysTakeChina I appreciate the offer but pod refers to a type of hedge fund (Im never going to beat the allegations)"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-15T02:53Z 21.8K followers, XXX engagements

"My concern with BTC in contrast to gold is that the former is to a large degree correlated to liquidity. And one of the sharpest arrows in the American quiver is weaponizing dollar access in a decoupling. Look at the recent Argentinian bailout and how it was structured. So reducing global liquidity temporarily when shit hits the fan may serve policy makers interest even as domestic liquidity is boosted via direct transfer payments and industry-level subsidies. That said I still anticipate a broad-based tsunami of stimulus into midterms late next year. So I hold BTC but am mentally bracing"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-12T14:07Z 21.6K followers, 9547 engagements

"@Alt_Perspektiv Incredible"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-13T18:39Z 21.8K followers, XXX engagements

"The difference is we can ameliorate the rare earth chokehold in under a year under war time measures while China will struggle to scale up GPU volumes to supply the rest of the world within even three years. Dont fall for the doom porn. China has cards but there is strategic asymmetry"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-11T19:19Z 21.8K followers, 51.5K engagements

"Part of why I was adamant this wasnt an equity call is because we are going to run the economy so fucking hot. Because if you want to convince allies to give up the Chinese consumer you better have a really compelling alternative market. A booming American economy and access to dollar liquidity so you can stimulate your own consumers as well is the only viable path. Ofc if you dont play ball you will be locked out. Stimulus is coming. That its going to coincide with the midterms isnt an accident either"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-13T11:51Z 21.8K followers, 26.3K engagements

"@ewinsberg @proforma_addbck I wouldnt say no way. Id say its difficult without TW buy in"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-14T22:31Z 21.8K followers, XXX engagements

"Sides must be chosen"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-13T11:18Z 21.8K followers, 9127 engagements

"@LH47706917 Gave it thought and realized Im too lazy to deal with physical. If GLD gets zeroed out Ive got bigger problems. Terrible advice but i dont really care much about my savings tbh"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-12T14:21Z 21.6K followers, XXX engagements

"Re-circulating this with the addition of Apple in China Breakneck Chinas Economy by Kroeber King Dollar Our Dollar Your Problem House of Huawei and Focus: The ASML Way"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-11T20:15Z 21.7K followers, 11.4K engagements

"The reason you need an AI boom to decouple is it provides a compelling alternative source of demand for the major commodity suppliers who were reliant on China for thirty years of non-stop growth. Australia is at the top of this list. It is fortuitous that this is coinciding with a property bust in China. Still economic seppuku but with a veneer of opportunity"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-13T11:40Z 21.8K followers, 8524 engagements

"As decoupling has gone from a schizo post espoused by a cartoon acct to a topic of discussion over the last few months an increasing number of people have started to pushback with: yeah they want to decouple but its low on their list of priorities I firmly disagree. Because as I outlined in prior tweets the only way you can successfully decouple is by also dragging your allies away from China as well. And that is economic seppuku. Therefore the only way to decouple is if it is your primary focus. The overriding priority. Anything less and you are destined to fail from the jump. Fuck it we"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-13T14:28Z 21.8K followers, 7808 engagements

"I respect the hell out of Rush and honestly his book was one of the reasons why I fell down the geopol rabbit hole early on. I completely disagree with his take. But I also understand why he assumes the Trump admin has been caught unaware. I said from the start the admin would lie and then lie some more to achieve its objectives. When he heard Trump and Bessent say they didnt want to decouple he believed them. When he saw TACO he saw that as the extent of their will and tolerance for pain. And because hes now on the outside after helping to steer the Biden admin for the preceding four years"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-10T17:14Z 21.6K followers, 24.6K engagements

"@LetsBlameChina My services are available for the lowly price of two Moscow 10s or three Beijing 12s 🫡"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-15T03:12Z 21.8K followers, 3446 engagements

"Somewhere in the bowels of the State Department a disheveled analyst finished putting together a briefing titled Myanmar: the anatomy of undoing a coup via Discord and implications for rare earth supply chains"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-12T23:02Z 21.8K followers, 5776 engagements

"Very good point regarding the risk the Chinese are forced to dump gold to underwrite near term stimulus. I still think if decoupling is the end state then you need a neutral reserve currency because the Chinese and anyone in their orbit will be kicked off the dollar system. Barring some sort of intervention re ability for citizens to hold gold thats likely a driver of much much higher gold prices. I dont think China will collapse. I think we need this to be an outcome they can accept without going kinetic"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-14T10:06Z 21.8K followers, 20.4K engagements

"Got a Q on what is the disincentive for China to invade Taiwan if it sees the world decoupling from it. Stream of consciousness answer for those who are curious: The game theory assumes that as long as there is ambiguity about the final outcome specifically which sphere each neutral country sides with it is irrational to attempt Taiwan because it will harden vacillating countries that arent firmly in one or the other camp. That is why I framed the first war as a war of narratives. So China which defaults to being deliberate and careful will first want to see what the board looks like. Now"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-15T01:20Z 21.8K followers, 8170 engagements

"In a world where the U.S. decouples without the rest of the world the West will find itself at the receiving end of crushing supply and at the mercy of a regime who will not think twice about crushing them if they step out of line. A world of trade without Americans isnt the paradise the propagandists tell you it is. It is a cynical dark place where CCP overwatch gets a passport and social credit scores are a thing members of every parliament have to worry about. Americans can be careless greedy insular and belligerent. But we arent deeply cynical. For all our shortcomings we dont see the"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-14T10:26Z 21.8K followers, 16.6K engagements

"Nothing scares elites more than being called traitorous commie lovers When the narrative shifts from trade war because Trump likes tariffs to economic warfare with an adversarial China everyone will fall in-line because the rhetoric and patriotism you are going see ignited will scare even the likes of Kyle Bass. The script writes itself and there is a lot of (justified) pent up anger looking for an external target. This is important to anticipate because it drastically increases the probabilities of getting through bipartisan legislation that right now seem impossible. Be ready for the frame"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-14T17:06Z 21.8K followers, 1746 engagements

"We were at war. We are at war. See the world as it is - not how you think the stock market tells you it is"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-13T10:51Z 21.8K followers, 6841 engagements

"Friendly reminder that if the journalist is based in China even if they work for the WSJ they are inherently conflicted and at the mercy of what ever narrative the CCP feels like pushing. Similarly if they have significant familial ties to the mainland they are inherently conflicted. It is not racist to understand that we dont have the same system of ethics and threshold for coercion. Just because a mainland journalist reports to an American or British editor who walks on egg shells and would never accuse them of being biased or question their sources because that might be seen as racist"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-11T00:45Z 21.6K followers, 24.2K engagements

"@424xh Yup but youll see US labs lean in much more aggressively on the latter category as the compute constraint is ameliorated with the ramp of gb200s"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-14T14:34Z 21.8K followers, XXX engagements

"@0xMVU Not really. We need a neutral reserve asset that sovereigns would accept readily if we are going to decouple and BTC isnt there yet"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-12T23:15Z 21.7K followers, XXX engagements

"few people do a better job of encapsulating the problem - worth a listen: @JackFarley96 @Brad_Setser"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-13T20:10Z 21.8K followers, 13.1K engagements

"@truesteel23 @Victorpcuellar Agreed. Its not an easy issue to predict. The alt is there is different repression and you can tilt causalities towards rural families"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-15T02:06Z 21.8K followers, XXX engagements

"@newmachines I remember listening to the Odd Lots episode when this study came out and thinking dam their assumptions are way too optimistic"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-13T02:02Z 21.7K followers, XXX engagements

"Only children gloat or take victory laps. Adults understand nothing goes in a straight line. Lying is part of the strategy. Nothing is binary. The permutations are vast and the endstate is uncertain. I was clear from the start that I was not making a directional bet on equities. Only vol and gold. The endstate is likely decoupling because the Chinese will not accept the alternative. I didnt say the attempt would be successful only that it would be attempted. Too many of you seem to be unable to think in probabilities and distill complex topics to their core drivers. Its easy to say decoupling"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-12T22:14Z 21.8K followers, 17.3K engagements

"Forgive those that were blind. That squandered year is exactly why the West now has a fighting chance. Let this be a valuable lesson - there are many educated people but there are few original thinkers. Most are just memetic to an extreme"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-15T17:42Z 21.8K followers, 14.3K engagements

"An under-appreciated aspect of the last six months is the Pavlovian response that has been deeply embedded in retail investors psyche. Buy the fucking dip This phenomena has massively accelerated over the last six months. This is by design. Because like I stated from the start the Chinese know that the West is heavily financialized. So you could threaten to dump bonds and stocks. And back when the Japanese were threatening to do so earlier this year that was a real and scary risk. But now the treasury is firmly under control the Fed will soon be under control and retail is primed to buy hand"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-10T16:34Z 21.8K followers, 18.7K engagements

"Now that the word decoupling is entering the common lexicon I want to clarify what I mean when I use it. Complete decoupling in every sense. Dividing the world into two separate financial spheres. Dividing the world into two separate IP protection spheres. Dividing the world into two separate academic spheres. Dividing the world into two separate military alliance spheres. Dividing the world into two separate tourism destination spheres. It has to be complete. It has to be impermeable. Airtight. Hermetic. Because that is the only way it becomes irreversible when future political parties take"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-16T08:48Z 21.8K followers, 5641 engagements

"@TheWalrus83 @truesteel23 Or we just skip ahead because this is an obvious next step that was discussed and preemptively negotiated as part of the trade talks between each country 😉 (transhipment clause)"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-15T00:54Z 21.8K followers, XX engagements

"The end state has always been obvious. Most of our politicians have been weak willed and self-serving. America is special because the system is self correcting. This is the face of self-correction"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-13T12:39Z 21.8K followers, 12.4K engagements

"@SanAlessandri Correct"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-12T15:41Z 21.7K followers, XXX engagements

"Round one of the narrative war was: Trump is disrupting a perfectly healthy global trade system and China is a benevolent supplier of cheap goods while Americans take advantage of Chinese peasants with overvalued dollars. Failed to take hold. No one was fooled. Round two of the narrative war is: China has a strategic chokehold on the worlds supply chains and ripping away from China will be catastrophically painful and it is therefore malfeasance to even try. You are here. Dont fall for it. Yes it is painful. But journalists asking grok for timelines is the least credible source imaginable."
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-11T19:34Z 21.8K followers, 36.7K engagements

"@bigjohn032782 Like XX% of instances its cheating but not legally cheating because assembly isnt considered transshippingyet 😉"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-14T00:20Z 21.7K followers, XXX engagements

"Nothing changed today. I told you what would happen. Trump is not surprised. Not even a little bit. Every step is predictable and has been carefully choreographed. China has a lot more cards to play. But many of those cards have been defanged. Why Because they waited. Because strategic ambiguity worked against a society that errs on the side of cautious deliberation. By waiting they lost the chance to ruin the 2025 holiday season. By waiting they let the Trump admin pre-structure the new trade order with mechanisms to force China out. The trans-motherfucking-shipment clause. By waiting they"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-10T16:01Z 21.8K followers, 68.9K engagements

"How the current admin look at current stock of illegals and the broader labor market: If AI productivity ramps aggressively and starts displacing jobs you immediately ramp deportations to bring labor supply-demand back in balance. If inflation re-accels you first aggressively shift unproductive public sector employees to the public sector and simultaneously pull funding to wellfare channels in blue states. If inflation persists in medium-skilled sectors (healthcare) you ramp deportations of low skilled and throw open legal migration of skilled. If inflation appears in lower-skilled"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-08T19:14Z 21.8K followers, 9074 engagements

"There are three upcoming major catalysts & strategic own-goals: 1) The day China does something that scares every day Americans 2) The day China does something that terrifies its geographical neighbors 3) The day China does something that scares Western trading partners Every day that goes by we inch closer to each of these being unlocked. The CCP is infinitely patient. It is also inherently adverse to vol in a way democracies arent. But by virtue of its patience it is forced to watch narrative control slowly slip away from its grasp. And because controlling narrative is critical to"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-14T09:14Z 21.8K followers, 40.3K engagements

"lol if you think hes the good cop you are gonna be in a world of pain 😭"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-13T13:06Z 21.8K followers, 12.4K engagements

"A lot of boomers still hung up on seemingly deteriorating economic signal if you exclude AI contribution. A couple points: 1) Street AI capex estimates are too low to a laughable degree which means there is likely upside contribution 2) OBBB contribution has only just started and there is a lot of pent up capex 3) dont underestimate the impact of dereg 4) dont underestimate the productivity differential from shifting jobs from public sector to private 5) Trump is going to stimulate the fuck out of consumers via tariff rebate checks to bribe voters into midterms 6) we are absolutely going to"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-07T15:19Z 21.8K followers, 16.6K engagements

"@JerrysTakeChina Elucidate me Jerry - Im all ears 😉"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-15T02:31Z 21.8K followers, XXX engagements

"@realKunalAShah @briangobosox Thats what they have been doing. Trump is trying to pull forward the inevitable to the time of our choosing while we still have strategic advantage"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-14T14:02Z 21.8K followers, XXX engagements

"A lot of what has motivated me to so publicly tweet about decoupling over the last six months stems from three motivations: 1) to battle-test my assumptions publicly 2) to kickstart a dialogue around what the future might look like and how to navigate once consensus shifted towards accepting a decoupling was being attempted 3) to ensure that in 2027 when people look back and try to write a synopsis they cant assert that the administration just bumbled into this by happenstance. Now if this all ends badly they also cant be excused and will hold the blame. This is an incredibly high-risk"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-16T09:51Z 21.8K followers, 3761 engagements

"The Trump administration couldnt be transparent wrt its intentions from the outset because decoupling requires strategic ambiguity and game theory. But there were breadcrumbs One of those was the seemingly bizarre focus on Greenland. Guess where the largest and most easily accessed deposits of rare earths are You dont undertake the restructuring of global trade without thinking this far ahead. Anyone who tells you that Washington was caught unaware by REE export restrictions has a comically flawed understanding of how Washington operates and radically underestimates the intelligence level of"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-11T23:18Z 21.8K followers, 28.2K engagements

"@adcock_brett"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-09T14:52Z 21.8K followers, 5208 engagements

"Fun facts: 1) Scott Bessent hasnt been allowed to visit China Beijing or Macau for the last decade due to critical comments made on Australian TV post-Xis promotion 2) He owns a lot of physical gold that he stores in vaults in Texas 3) He refuses to higher graduates from Harvard after having a failed 0/5 hit rate on prior hires 4) He was targeting $40-50/barrel for oil to 5) Target of X% GDP growth and flat fiscal budget to grow out of fiscal debt load months before he was officially nominated which was when this interview was conducted 6) He is incredibly hawkish on China and thinks they"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-09-24T11:41Z 21.8K followers, 319.2K engagements

"But regardless of who you voted for if youre American youre in the shit now. There is no turning back without losing our status as hegemon and all the benefits that it provides to you and everyone you care about. If Trump were to catch a stray tomorrow the facts on the board wont change. We attempted to force China out of the system. If we fail regardless of who is president they will exact revenge. They will work day and night to make sure we can never attempt this again"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-13T17:32Z 21.8K followers, 23.9K engagements

"The war is not to salvage US-China trade. The war is to shape narrative to influence undecided countries to choose one sphere vs the other when decoupling occurs. Luckily supply shortages can be incredibly painful but defaulting on dollar-denominated debt can topple governments. And the people in power will always optimize for retaining power"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-12T15:40Z 21.8K followers, 22.1K engagements

"Six months ago there were a grand total of three accounts on this hellscape of an app using the word decouple. We were accused of being schizo. Unthinkable retarded tariffs are about tax revenue Notice how the goal posts have shifted"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-15T17:53Z 21.8K followers, 13.1K engagements

"The agenda for China is as follows: Step 1: Reunify with Taiwan Step 2: Exact retribution on Japan for past humiliation Step 3: Push the Americans out of South Korea and the Philippines Step 4: Dominate APAC in its entirety which will be the largest and fastest growing economic bloc on the planet Step 5: Coerce surrounding nations to ensure continued access to ever growing export markets and free flow of inbound commodities This is Chinas ambitions as its neighbors see it. Whether its true or false has little significance. Every politician from Sydney to Seoul believes this deeply in their"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-14T18:20Z 21.8K followers, 81.9K engagements

"@Hopehope_G_hope Every politician"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-15T14:40Z 21.8K followers, XXX engagements

"@Observateur2024 Myanmar is interesting"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-14T14:21Z 21.8K followers, XXX engagements

"No idea if this was happenstance or not. But it doesnt matter. If Im right there will be mass sabotage at a scale we havent seen since WW2. Roosevelt put 120k Japanese-Americans in internment camps post Pearl Harbor for a reason"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-10T18:37Z 21.8K followers, 41.9K engagements

"Dont underestimate the CCP. But also dont overestimate their pain tolerance. Its a delicate balance. Err on the side of overestimation when in doubt"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-13T00:58Z 21.8K followers, 9972 engagements

"@AphelionRMC Before end of XX I think"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-12T17:33Z 21.7K followers, 1044 engagements

"If you havent read Freedoms Forge do so asap. Washington sure has"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-12T19:43Z 21.8K followers, 10.7K engagements

"@BaldingsWorld Correct. The isolationist camp (Vance etc) are a gift to the the salvage globalization by restructuring it camp (Bessent etc) because it lets them play good cop bad cop credibly"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-14T13:51Z 21.8K followers, XXX engagements

"@JerrysTakeChina For the love of god 😭"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-15T02:52Z 21.8K followers, XXX engagements

"We will be getting similar reports on Chinese espionage across the west. Canada France Spain Germany Australia. Narrative warfare. The CIA and NSA are about to go on a generational run You forget about the infrastructure Kissinger & co built brick by cynical brick that underpins the peaceful life you now live. Deeply flawed humans. But they were our pitballs. And they left a legacy. Narrative warfare. Hegemons dont just walk away and into the sweet summer night. 🫡"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-15T18:16Z 21.8K followers, 25.9K engagements

"This is by far the wildest interview Ive listened to all year. Burn it all to the fucking ground. 🤬"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-11T17:13Z 21.8K followers, 44.2K engagements

"This matters more than the rare earth drama. Lines have been drawn. Focus"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-13T02:14Z 21.8K followers, 27.1K engagements

"@ElectricBerry1 Absolutely. But that impacts calibrations of probabilities while my point was the expected value was the biggest error which is a function of imagination"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-07T02:17Z 21.7K followers, XX engagements

"Many more to come"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-13T01:31Z 21.8K followers, 36.5K engagements

"@volcrushed No idea. Said from the start they would stimulate like crazy and try to mitigate pain. Never was an equities call only framing the end state"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-12T18:08Z 21.6K followers, XXX engagements

"There are two ways this AI cycle ends badly (at least temporarily): A) scaling laws dont hold B) Xi gets jealous and bombs the fabs The more valuable AI appears the more prevalent the latter scenario becomes. I still believe decoupling is being attempted. But if robotics works and starts ramping it changes a lot of the calculus for all parties involved. Not saying TW invasion is the modal outcome. Just reminding people that this all rests on chips being manufactured an ocean away next door to a country that we stopped selling GPUs to. And yes AZ is ramping but thats a 2-3 year pause even if"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-08T23:50Z 21.8K followers, 17.1K engagements

"The difference in IQ between the average human and orangutan is roughly XX points. That difference drives most of why we have a $100T economy and orangutans live in zoos. You are being far too myopic when you think about the AI bull case"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-06T21:41Z 21.6K followers, 63.8K engagements

"@long_equities @PiRaTe_1011 Transshipment clause"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-13T14:49Z 21.8K followers, XXX engagements

"The vibes have not sufficiently shifted until this is firmly in the top XXX on Amazon"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-13T17:48Z 21.8K followers, 14.5K engagements

"There is no world where this was ever an option. None. The TACO kool-aid has short-circuited any semblance of first principles thinking. Continued tolerance of Chinese mercantilism is inherently destabilizing to the current financial system that underpins the ongoing market rally. Even if you simplistically and naively believe that trumps sole guiding star is higher markets you would have to contend with Miran and Bessent patiently repeating in his ear the prospect that free flowing trade with China will inevitably result in stocks crashing within his lifetime. Because every year that goes by"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-13T01:54Z 21.8K followers, 16.9K engagements

"Good post on the nuances of dysprosium & terbium as well as the importance of access to ionic clays in regions like Malaysia Brazil and Myanmar. Link in his bio"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-12T16:36Z 21.8K followers, 9969 engagements

"@nikitabier You say youre trying to clean up this bird app and yet here you are encouraging us to post dial-up era porn"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-12T02:08Z 21.6K followers, 1384 engagements

"The reason you arent hearing from Elon on anything China related is fairly obvious - hes being held hostage via Tesla Shanghai. As long as there is a chance (however low) that China will capitulate and we wont decouple he has a fiduciary duty to shareholders to not antagonize the CCP. Once it becomes clear we are decoupling I suspect he will be given wide latitude to vertically integrate supply chains much in the same way Kaiser and Knudsen were tasked with converting auto plants to bomber production lines during WW2. This wont be about saving the EV industry - the humanoid robot supply chain"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-12T15:29Z 21.8K followers, 16.7K engagements

"@nickvannewkirk @ewinsberg Yet to see it. Would love for someone to flag it if they see one"
X Link @TMTLongShort 2025-10-14T12:18Z 21.8K followers, XX engagements