@TBU12345678 Avatar @TBU12345678 TBU

Several tech companies have recently reported earnings, with some experiencing significant reactions. $SMCI and $TXN have made headlines with their quarterly performances, with $SMCI's miss and $TXN's bookings being notable mentions. The semiconductor sector seems to be under scrutiny, with many stocks experiencing volatility.

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Social Influence

Social category influence stocks 63.57% technology brands 46.43% finance 17.86% countries 11.43% cryptocurrencies 7.14% financial services #1994 currencies 2.86% social networks 1.43% exchanges 0.71% automotive brands 0.71%

Social topic influence $nvda 17.86%, nvda 12.86%, $mu 10.71%, $amd 9.29%, dell #502, $dell #9, $aapl #235, ai 7.86%, china 7.86%, $tsm 7.14%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @jukan05 @cousingraig @kairospraxis @semianalysis @tenreirodaniel @alex_intel_ @contrariancurse @clarktang @rwang07 @pythiar @alexintel @evrgn11112231 @stevehou @srasgon @dalibali2 @fabknowledge @chairliftcap @insaneanalyst @bucknsf @gavinsbaker

Top assets mentioned NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Dell Technologies, Inc. (DELL) Apple, Inc. (AAPL) Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO) Intel Corporation (INTC) HP Inc (HPQ) NetApp Inc. (NTAP) Arista Networks Inc (ANET) Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co (HPE) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Synopsys, Inc. (SNPS) Cadence Design Systems Inc (CDNS) Coldstack (CLS) Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL) Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock (SMCI) NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) Microchip Technology Inc. (MCHP) Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) Metadium (META) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Morgan Stanley (MS) GammaSwap (GS) Arm Holdings plc (ARM) Blue Owl Capital, Inc. (OWL) Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) Logitech International SA (LOGI) Lumentum Holdings Inc. Common Stock (LITE) Coherent Inc (COHR) CHEGG, INC. (CHGG) Orochi Network (ON) Stacks (STX) Unity Software Inc. (U) UBS Group AG (UBS) Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) Evernode (EVR) Basis Cash (BAC) Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT) Elastic N.V. (ESTC) Workday Inc (WDAY)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"$OWL: "I focus on the neoclouds you know once they find out they're getting a GPU they sign where you tell them to sign don't ask questions don't understand the rates" Baum: "And you target neoclouds too" $OWL: "Their credit actually isn't bad enough for him" $APO: "I'm a yield guy" $CRWV $NBIS https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018092206410891760 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018092206410891760"
X Link 2026-02-01T22:40Z [----] followers, 23.5K engagements

"good times create hard comps hard comps create hard times hard times create easy comps easy comps create good times"
X Link 2025-05-06T14:25Z [----] followers, 69.9K engagements

"ok guys as of last week Im in the $TSEM bandwagon: - mega winner of 1.6T with 80% share of the fastest growing mkt in AI - SiPho is gross margin accretive - $GFS scattered competitively looking at mips / China / not focused - true oppty to double with $4-5 of eps on the table"
X Link 2025-08-25T19:44Z [----] followers, 10K engagements

"guys have we considered that stuff isn't actually getting displaced by AI but rather the non-AI economy has just been absolute dogsht for the past [--] years"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:35Z [----] followers, 14.6K engagements

"at this point clear that NAND and DRAM are in an inflationary trajectory. so who does this affect negatively - PC makers like $HPQ $DELL who just took price and prob cant again - storage box guys like $NTAP who isnt really levered to hyperscale + guiding to commod deflation"
X Link 2025-09-12T16:11Z [----] followers, 15.3K engagements

"thought the $AMD GM guide of 55-58% was either flat wrong or portends someone in the supply chain getting squeezed given that $TSM and memory way more expensive. is it ODM again theyre planning to crush"
X Link 2025-11-11T22:41Z [----] followers, 11.6K engagements

"I have always wondered why some hedge funds append "Global" to the end of their name (e.g. Tiger Global Avala Global Viking Global Investors). If I were to have a venture it would emphasize the desire to give back to the community hence be called "TBU Local Investors""
X Link 2025-12-09T21:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"CES recap: 1/ only thing $NVDA accomplished in this keynote was pumping $SNPS and $CDNS bags. yawn"
X Link 2026-01-05T22:22Z [----] followers, 22.4K engagements

"I think there have been very few new "themes" since October that have necessitated significant repositioning. as I look to Q4 EPS the following things stand out to me as potential unwinds: - consumer electronics doesn't die immediately which leads to short term covering (but I think people come back here pretty quickly so this is short lived) - the networking names $ANET $CLS actually roof numbers causing people who were sneaky short to cover - $TXN actually smashes numbers meaning analog short capital needs to either pound consumer electronics further or pound compute - $AMD roofs numbers on"
X Link 2026-01-16T17:09Z [----] followers, 23.3K engagements

"to be clear the above does not change the north star on $HPQ $LOGI $NTAP $DELL all getting wrecked this year so any rip is an opportunity"
X Link 2026-01-16T17:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"not much to add to the SaaS debate other thanlook at $CDNS and $SNPS EDA literally the only software category where seats are like definitely increasing rel to enterprise PM workflow mumbojumbo numbers set up well and cheap rel to history"
X Link 2026-01-20T00:43Z [----] followers, 14.2K engagements

"@ContrarianCurse $aapl $ntap $dell $hpe $hpq $logi literally in a death spiral to your point ppl getting it"
X Link 2026-01-21T01:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"MICRON TO INVEST $24B OVER [--] YEARS IN SINGAPORE NAND PLANT as the prophecy foretold $SNDK $MU"
X Link 2026-01-27T13:30Z [----] followers, 87.4K engagements

"instead of a parlay brining back an old classic. after being a bear on $NVDA for the past few months (successfully) I think it's time to get constructive: - $MU $SNDK Hynix are great but they are all pricing in a stupid number of Rubin units; as do the buyside numbers for $LITE $COHR - $NVDA has drawn the most relative to the index outside of a semis down market and has just reversed that trend - they are about to see capex raises from hyperscale next week absolutely obliterate Q4 with GTC as a backstop which makes you scared about the wingy stuff since Jensen can zero them in one comment -"
X Link 2026-01-30T20:19Z [----] followers, 34.3K engagements

"$NXPI call most awkward thing ever. just cut ur LT guide if u can't commit to it bro $NXPI https://t.co/xdK4LckPco $NXPI https://t.co/xdK4LckPco"
X Link 2026-02-03T14:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"one for the software is a zero morons: if $AAPL services is software and the reason it trades at 30x shouldn't you guys re-rate it back to 8x"
X Link 2026-02-03T15:26Z [----] followers, 13.8K engagements

"@ChairliftCap dude who on earth would ever guy $CHGG"
X Link 2026-02-03T18:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"with due respect to $AMD and $AAPL we have seen two ok but not "holy cow rip memory pricing to infinity and let $TSM jack infinite price" prints. so capacity tightness has been caused by a party that hasn't reported + will crush numbers. My guess is $NVDA but open to feedback"
X Link 2026-02-03T23:13Z [----] followers, 54.2K engagements

"lmao congrats to the CoWoS boys on being like almost 40% off on Mediatek '27 ASIC revs thinking they'd kill $AVGO. h/t to @insane_analyst for perhaps the best way to describe this situation"
X Link 2026-02-04T13:44Z [----] followers, 13.8K engagements

"Sanjay at $MU when spot prices are down for a week: "The market is in an itsy bitsy little gully right now. It's like everybody said ok that was crazy let's just all calm down.""
X Link 2026-02-04T16:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Sanjay: "I sold this DRAM module for $1 when it was built then [--] days later $2 then $5 [--] days ago. This company bought it for $10 yesterday. He'd let it go for that.it'll break his heart but he'll let it go." Baum: "Why is he selling" Sanjay: "He's not shipping product right now" $MRVL https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019092791507267790 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019092791507267790"
X Link 2026-02-04T16:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"some thoughts from $GOOG print: - riddle me this Mediatek CoWoS boys - what's "a bit over $1B" divided by $180B back to die counting - compute is back. memory+semicap are priced hardware sucks and analog is a cyclical hedge - calling bottom on unwind at least in semis"
X Link 2026-02-04T23:40Z [----] followers, 26.9K engagements

"@jukan05 @KairosPraxis dude Mediatek told you how much is going to them and it is inconsequential"
X Link 2026-02-04T23:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@jukan05 @KairosPraxis I think we're saying the same thing Mediatek's ability to make a viable product has been overstated to the point where their involvement is not that relevant"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@_clarktang yeah the market de-rated $NVDA a ton for this though after $AVGO's big "SAM" reveal. relative to when the "bull case" was $5 CY25 EPS this pretty materially underperformed the buyside revision + compounding of earnings"
X Link 2026-02-05T22:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"given technicals there is a 50/50 chance "it's over" in AI. my prior is that it's not.but are there legitimate reasons that the market is sniffing out the end without us being in a rising rates regime (or not even on the cusp of one)"
X Link 2026-02-06T00:54Z [----] followers, 11.2K engagements

"catalyst path for $NVDA: - other megacaps eh but ripped capex $MU on the ropes so flows available while everyone either sold $NVDA or is funding short - previews solid to portend a smash - post print there is GTC '27 CoWoS out in April and Brad Gerstner will be all over CNBC + do a podcast instead of a parlay brining back an old classic. after being a bear on $NVDA for the past few months (successfully) I think it's time to get constructive: - $MU $SNDK Hynix are great but they are all pricing in a stupid number of Rubin units; as do the buyside numbers for https://t.co/T2R1S5XOcV instead of"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:14Z [----] followers, 26.5K engagements

"@rwang07 @SemiAnalysis_ good delineation between this is longer and this is different because we will decel next qtr"
X Link 2026-02-07T04:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@rwang07 @SemiAnalysis_ and congrats ray they are a great firm and you are a great hire"
X Link 2026-02-07T04:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"TBU's weekend roundup: - if you were bearish on the American consumer put that away. stimulus is coming ppl waiting in FREEZING temperatures all over the West/East Village/Flatiron for the chance to spend money at places that Tiktok told them to go.but lines ever-so-slightly less; hard to tell if second deriv or a 1x-cold weather adjustment - $DASH and $UBER shockingly humane for not forcing delivery guys out in [--] degree weather props to them - the "tactics" of EPS becoming less interesting than thematics rn but things like OpEx-induced misses (see $AMD $AAPL) mean that modeling is not dead"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"nvm $COIN was the most reprehensible ad"
X Link 2026-02-09T01:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Hassane at $ON pulling the underutilization charges BS has triggered a complaint from Sanghi at $MCHP who wants royalties for using his playbook"
X Link 2026-02-09T22:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@PythiaR I can see that for early cycle industrials (which are forever too expensive but get that it is early cycle). but those + defensives ripping is a market meta that is not congruent"
X Link 2026-02-10T22:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@TenreiroDaniel I'd prefer an investment in the Dan Tenreiro ETF"
X Link 2026-02-11T23:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@TenreiroDaniel I'm incompetent so that's a pretty small circle"
X Link 2026-02-11T23:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Alex_Intel_ snps or cdns or china"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"and you morons are still bearish $NVDA. if your thesis on $STX and $MU are right pricing and volume are locked if its wrong volume will wreck pricing. but dont worry $135b of wfe will not create any additional wafers until [----] maybe [----] Seedance [---] Prompt: Sum up the AI discourse in a meme - make sure its retarded and gets [--] likes. https://t.co/09yPdo3Tjy Seedance [---] Prompt: Sum up the AI discourse in a meme - make sure its retarded and gets [--] likes. https://t.co/09yPdo3Tjy"
X Link 2026-02-14T02:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"pretty sure $AVGO making the byte asic. maybe you idiots will sell that every day too"
X Link 2026-02-14T03:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"CES predictions: - $HPQ softly rebases their guidance to the lower end - $DELL obstinately claims that thugs are fine; nobody believes it - $IFX.DE and $ON sound better on 800V oppty; $ADI / $MCHP try to talk up the cycle but ultimately were here for AI so its eh - $MU and Samsung continue to sound really good the stocks keep rolling - $AMD and $NVDA keynotes are eh; $NVDA sounds good in Q&A but fails to recapture the magic - the conservative Tokyo Electron sounds wildly good and gives us a glimpse into how big the $ASML $AMAT etc quarters will be - TBU gouges out own eyes because domestic"
X Link 2026-01-03T17:24Z [----] followers, 11.9K engagements

"ethernet networking names like $ANET $CLS ripping higher on checks implying stupid high numbers Anthropic et al jamming $GOOG cloud usage and the release of $AAPL Siri chatbot that Clawdbot provided can happen.all while hedge funds are "funding short" $AVGO hmmmm"
X Link 2026-01-27T16:17Z [----] followers, 11.1K engagements

"listening to this $CLS call and my only takeaway is rediscovering that a guy named "Thanos" covers the company which is awesome and that the company keeps saying they'll beat (so why not.guide.higher)"
X Link 2026-01-29T13:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Enrique Lores moving from CEO of $HPQ to CEO of $PYPL nuking the stocks of both companies is just a really impressive compliment and speaks to the man's eye for quality"
X Link 2026-02-03T13:46Z [----] followers, 44.1K engagements

"so like do they have to make Meyers or one of the punters MVP"
X Link 2026-02-09T02:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"*The Information: XAI Nears $3 Billion Deal With Apollo for Chips $APO $OWL: "I focus on the neoclouds you know once they find out they're getting a GPU they sign where you tell them to sign don't ask questions don't understand the rates" Baum: "And you target neoclouds too" $OWL: "Their credit actually isn't bad enough for him" $APO: "I'm a https://t.co/BOAdpGnQVv $OWL: "I focus on the neoclouds you know once they find out they're getting a GPU they sign where you tell them to sign don't ask questions don't understand the rates" Baum: "And you target neoclouds too" $OWL: "Their credit"
X Link 2026-02-09T14:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"to be fair this is a pretty good strategy for him"
X Link 2026-02-09T22:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"nothing more infuriating especially in cold weather when someone burns a treadmill to fcking walk with no incline. just dont lie to yourself and eat the donut"
X Link 2026-02-09T23:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"find it interesting that the hardware names everyone agreed were f'ed a mere [--] weeks ago like $DELL $NTAP $AAPL $HPE etc have found their ways to green on the year"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"this CY it is wildly interesting that (thus far) "buy at trough multiple vs. index" has been a wildly bad strategy whereas historically it's been pretty tried and true. look no further than megacap tech for historically cheap companies that are bidless every day. wonder why"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I think @evrgn11112231 has posted some version of this. fine to play the momo market but feels.not that healthy"
X Link 2026-02-10T22:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$135B of CY26 WFE spend and we are deluded enough to believe that no capacity will come online until [----] at the very earliest. Sensible Taiwan media: Rumors emerge that Micron may acquire Innoluxs Fab [--] in Taiwan. https://t.co/OZWVStyfpR Taiwan media: Rumors emerge that Micron may acquire Innoluxs Fab [--] in Taiwan. https://t.co/OZWVStyfpR"
X Link 2026-02-11T23:54Z [----] followers, 10.3K engagements

"my favorite thing this season is looking at what sellside is saying about these obvious AI losers that whiff: Temporary Headwinds Bc AI is Killing $U / $DUOL / $CHGG / whatever but Thesis Remains Intact Remain OW"
X Link 2026-02-12T02:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@BucknSF man this was like the OG OG $MNDY bear case. love it"
X Link 2026-02-12T03:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"LMAO top find it interesting that the hardware names everyone agreed were f'ed a mere [--] weeks ago like $DELL $NTAP $AAPL $HPE etc have found their ways to green on the year find it interesting that the hardware names everyone agreed were f'ed a mere [--] weeks ago like $DELL $NTAP $AAPL $HPE etc have found their ways to green on the year"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Alex_Intel_ @CousinGraig IP is prob the issue where you're definitely not allowed to train on that much data much less the absolute best blocks in the space"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"you would think that some of these analysts on the $ANET call have never been on one of these. "ohhh uhhh why is the back half so conservative oohhh why is non-AI not growing". it's because they always do this and raise through the year dumbass"
X Link 2026-02-12T22:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"random musing but this Jan / Feb market has created a lot of Id buy it higher guys. think that style gets killed in h2 but works through at least March. pains me to say since I think said style is emblematic of true stupidity in 80% of cases"
X Link 2026-02-13T19:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@stevehou some of these guys like $U are straight missing numbers. some stuff is out with the bath water but generally earnings are eh. can even look at stuff like S&P industrial earnings revisions since [--]. straight line down even still"
X Link 2026-02-13T19:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Fanduel and $DKNG ads ruining the super bowl. gambling rots everything it touchessave that for stocks"
X Link 2026-02-09T00:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@GavinSBaker @itsDanielWu the junkiest expression of a trade always has the most torque to the upside but gets smoked in a downcycle. issue with "quality" is that it defends you when things are bad but when things are good it'll underperform"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:05Z [----] followers, 13.7K engagements

"2/ I can only imagine the shteating grin on Gary at $AMAT's face right now as he steals the crown from $KLAC"
X Link 2026-02-12T22:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"leaving this here for later but the greatest lie ever told was clean room constraints. we are about to see capital spend like no other which will obviously have no impact on supply / demand $MU $AMAT"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:20Z [----] followers, 12.5K engagements

"RIP to the Mag7 Era: Jan 2023-Jan [----] $AAPL $NVDA $META $GOOG $MSFT $AMZN $TSLA"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"really impressed with the brooks adrenaline gts [--]. fixed everything i flagged around weaker heels cheaper support material laces etc. vendetta over"
X Link 2026-02-15T15:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"RIP to the memory podcast bois who thought that Gavin Baker could drive stock price more than fundamentals. Will delete if momo ppl bid this all up in the morning because of the podcast $MU"
X Link 2025-01-22T23:07Z [----] followers, 21.4K engagements

"top [--] hardware sellside analyst (random order): [--]. Erik Woodring (MS) [--]. Brett Simpson (Arete) [--]. Dylan Patel (Semianalysis) [--]. Tim Arcuri (UBS) [--]. Tom O'Malley (Barclays)"
X Link 2025-02-28T16:02Z [----] followers, 11.2K engagements

"dumb question but what do people who leave mkt neutral hedge funds end up doing sounds like not much of an LO or L/S bid for that talent so leave the industry genuinely curious not a dig"
X Link 2025-03-11T21:33Z [----] followers, 53.2K engagements

"Lone Pine investing be like "let's start with the TAM""
X Link 2025-03-12T19:05Z [----] followers, 31.4K engagements

"anyone found a way to manage inbox in public markets I'm an inbox zero person and it sort of sucks to wake up to [---] unread emails like every day"
X Link 2025-03-21T11:58Z [----] followers, 17.1K engagements

"in hindsight it's incredibly impressive that Masa's Softbank / Stargate plans were within [--] or so days of the $NVDA ATH"
X Link 2025-03-28T17:33Z [----] followers, 10.7K engagements

"Hock once again throwing down the hammer with a $10B $AVGO buyback while the market is computing the difference between a 35% and 37.5% tariff impact on $DELL"
X Link 2025-04-07T20:20Z [----] followers, 12.3K engagements

"ok I love being bearish but these drawdowns are worse than [----]. dunno if you guys traded that period but it felt unavoidable given inflation - this feels ever-so-slightly more reversible (NVDA being the outlier that needs to take medicine) $AMD $ANET $AVGO $MRVL $MU $NVDA $TSM"
X Link 2025-04-08T22:23Z [----] followers, 20.4K engagements

"2 kinds of guys in our office today: most ppl: recommending trades on newflow flipping through pre done analyses; making the fund $ new guy: asking about the PA trading policy and trying to swing trade $10k fire guys like the new guy full stop"
X Link 2025-04-09T21:13Z [----] followers, 24K engagements

"irrespective of the print $TSM is wildly interesting here: - Trump is creating the need to use US capacity for $NVDA $AMD $AAPL et al to avoid tariffs which is super short right now.creating a pocket of supply shortage / effectively infinite pricing power in tough macro - bear case saying that they magically give trade secrets to $INTC is stupid if anything Lip-Bu wants to outsource MORE to save the product biz which is why he initially left - $TSM the ultimate px/cost winner since it's an n of [--] biz in a world of input inflation (this time tariffs) px/cost winners outperform - bulls have"
X Link 2025-04-15T17:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"hilarious that $INTC is so irrelevant in AI that they didn't even have to 8-K their China AI revenues going to zero since it's not material"
X Link 2025-04-16T21:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I find the industrial investor community to be the probably least intellectually honest (always playing for some garbage recovery in secular losers over-bidding "winners" that would be average companies in any other space etc.). Change my mind"
X Link 2025-04-17T15:24Z [----] followers, 23.4K engagements

"top spec sales in TMT: [--]. Patrick Wu - $UBS [--]. Andrew Rocha - $WFC [--]. Kevin Rippey - $EVR [--]. Tom Wigg - $MS [--]. Pete Callahan - $GS honorable mention to Brian Fenske at $BAC"
X Link 2025-04-17T17:49Z [----] followers, 42.1K engagements

"some broad takeaways from spending this weekend away from my desk and getting less pale: - energy in NYC is nuts right now with the sun actually showing up. would not be surprised to see mkt in a "glass half full" mode - michelin ** and *** still pretty packed so wealth effect is not really working through yet - wine lists haven't been adjusted for tariffs yet; lot of what's bought is at auction so confluence of a) lessening demand offsetting px increases b) Chinese demand remaining tepid and c) decent inventory buffer may prevent px increase from getting too crazy. intg microcosm"
X Link 2025-04-20T17:55Z [----] followers, 27.6K engagements

"*TSMC RECEIVES 2-NM ORDERS FROM INTEL but but 18A $TSM $INTC"
X Link 2025-04-22T00:19Z [----] followers, 63.8K engagements

"I think $NVDA has become pretty interesting again on a relative basis: - most insulated semis name from China since the H20 got banned - any reversal is upside versus other folks need China to hold serve - GB200/300 checks inflecting back positively so generational bag not fully fumbled - $VRT + infra guys basically saying there is demand to stick $NVDA chips in infra through at least Sept/Dec '26.so I guess pending macro '26 is an up year - $NVDA at a cheaper multiple than the pack + itself versus history and is still a share gainer on total wallet (AI vs. generic) and within AI"
X Link 2025-04-28T19:13Z [----] followers, 13.6K engagements

"it is almost ridiculous how much better the $MS research product / analyst is than the $GS equivalent. Is there some legacy reason for this"
X Link 2025-04-29T17:46Z [----] followers, 26.5K engagements

"who are the top non-PM analysts in semis and software (in NYC/SF only)"
X Link 2025-05-01T14:10Z [----] followers, 91.6K engagements

"Worst CFOs in TMT: [--]. David Weigand - $SMCI [--]. Janesh Moorjani - $ESTC [--]. Howard Fu - $PCOR [--]. David Obstler - $DDOG [--]. Mike Scarpelli - $SNOW [--]. Jean Hu - $AMD [--]. Joe Binz - $TEAM [--]. Eric Bjornholt - $MCHP [--]. Willem Meintjes - $MRVL [--]. Zane Rowe - $WDAY/Marie Myers - $HPE (tie)"
X Link 2025-05-09T17:57Z [----] followers, 42.5K engagements

"got a bunch of responses for semis so will share. winner (very slight edge) is Atreides with Altimeter coming in close second. other notables (in order): Benchstone Coatue Davidson Kempner Ardmore Road Point [--] and Millennium who are the top non-PM analysts in semis and software (in NYC/SF only) who are the top non-PM analysts in semis and software (in NYC/SF only)"
X Link 2025-05-14T14:16Z [----] followers, 134.2K engagements

"Top [--] Worst Semis/Software CEOs in the public markets today: [--]. Antonio Neri - $HPE [--]. Carl Eschenbach - $WDAY [--]. Charles Liang - $SMCI [--]. Henry Schuck - $GTM / $ZI [--]. Tim Cook - $AAPL Will post a version with internet CEOs on a later date so feel free to suggest"
X Link 2025-05-23T14:43Z [----] followers, 32.4K engagements

"think that long $NVDA and short the junk - $MU $DELL $SMCI $VRT $COHR in a net long fashion is the right posture into $NVDA earnings: - $NVDA datapoints one-way positive after the initial rack scare Computex checks great on supply and demand; enough ammo to hit buyside bogey and maybe even more - $NVDA has underperformed the junk over the last several months; junk will squeeze on a beat but a) logical limit given liquidity should in some way move to $NVDA and b) that's why you're net long - People are afraid to short the trash given they've been one-way ticked to squeeze town which is exactly"
X Link 2025-05-27T19:07Z [----] followers, 23.7K engagements

"EPS impact of removing China is 10% to each of $SNPS and $CDNS. the first 10% down move was fair but everything after has been fear. A) this is another buyable dislocation for EDA and B) what happens to $ARM given Xiaomi used CSS to make the 3nm chip that started this all"
X Link 2025-05-29T17:36Z [----] followers, 17.7K engagements

"congrats to @Srasgon for being blackballed from both $NVDA and $AVGO sellside analyst events"
X Link 2025-06-05T21:30Z [----] followers, 41.1K engagements

"Lisa Su at $AMD bizarrely compares herself to Android to $NVDA's Apple.wtf are you doing confirming the bear case"
X Link 2025-06-12T16:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"top [--] spec sales in TMT (summer update). The spec sales guy that sends this out with the funniest caption wins my II vote and moves up [--] spots next time: [--]. Kevin Rippey - $EVR [--]. Pat Wu/Rob Ruple - $UBS [--]. Sean Diffley/Tom Wigg - $MS [--]. Andrew Rocha - $WFC [--]. Josh Meyers/Jack Atherton - $JPM [--]. Peter Callahan - $GS [--]. Brian Fenske - $BAC [--]. Jeff Favuzza - $JEF [--]. Jordan Klein - $MFG [--]. The TMT Breakout Guy"
X Link 2025-06-13T15:16Z [----] followers, 30.6K engagements

"top [--] worst headhunters in finance: [--]. Pinpoint Partners [--]. Mercury Partners [--]. CPI (worst "real" place by far) [--]. Henkel Search Partners [--]. SG Partners any strong opinions here"
X Link 2025-06-13T18:40Z [----] followers, 151.9K engagements

"@_clarktang what a crazy coincidence that theyre invested in all the privates on here"
X Link 2025-06-17T22:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"no joke someone literally laughed at me when I asked them for a price target on a given stock and told me it was all about the catalyst path. welcome to [----] put your models away"
X Link 2025-06-18T15:37Z [----] followers, 28.5K engagements

"I think that $DELL is an interesting short here: - we will be putting 20-25% tariffs on Vietnam where DELL makes most of its US-bound PCs which nukes EPS and more importantly FCF - AI server getting more competitive - 4-5% now the high end of GM range - Asia analysts are long downstream / short upstream so some long crowding with a tariff kicker - valuation perked back up a bit to above historical averages"
X Link 2025-06-24T17:00Z [----] followers, 16.1K engagements

"Top [--] Midwit stocks (iykyk): [--]. $MTCH [--]. $MRVL [--]. $ENTG [--]. $ESTC [--]. $WDAY hon mention to $AMD $ADBE $AMZN and $GOOG"
X Link 2025-06-25T14:50Z [----] followers, 17.7K engagements

"just initiated a short position in $MU: - bits are better but pricing was down sequentially which feels impossible given the checks; explained by higher consumer mix which is a symptom of pull-ins - inexplicable that HBM is not sold out in CY26 given infinite demand; I believe HBM3e 12-hi is delayed at MU (why they were so defensive) creating a bigger avenue for Samsung - still below peak GMs at higher than last peak revs GM is structurally lower thru cycle so AI loser - outperformed everything in AI for no reason -- will be a nice source of funds for winners"
X Link 2025-06-25T22:07Z [----] followers, 57.2K engagements

"new guy does it again - beats expectations by showing up to work on July 4th week but misses badly on work product as he spends all day browsing apartments on Streeteasy and not opening Excel one time. will he figure it out in the back half of CY25 FIND OUT SOON new guy strikes again. apparently there are [--] weddings that span the length of the summer each of which is at least [--] week days off.just when we were turning a corner vaguely contemplated whether the rest of us are chumps for working at all new guy strikes again. apparently there are [--] weddings that span the length of the summer each"
X Link 2025-06-30T20:43Z [----] followers, 70.1K engagements

"no position anymore but the spec sales community should be absolutely ashamed of the momo chasing of $AAPL for nothing. Fenske definitely the worst culprit"
X Link 2025-07-01T20:13Z [----] followers, 32.3K engagements

"7 pair trades for H2 25: - Long 4/5/6 trains / Short the N/Q/R/W trains - Long NYC / Short the Hamptons - Long Tahoe / Short SF - Long Founders Fund / Short Sequoia - Long Brad Gerstner / Short Keith Rabois - Long Erewhon / Short Eataly - Long South of France / Short Lake Como"
X Link 2025-07-08T17:09Z [----] followers, 11.6K engagements

"I'm like immediately suspicious of people who claim they are successful and then charge for their time on Intro. "Sure you had a lifechanging $1B exit and are answering my stupid questions for the $100 an hour" Get outta here"
X Link 2025-07-09T20:14Z [----] followers, 13.7K engagements

"old colleague said it best: i have never learned anything i didnt go in wanting to learn on an expert call"
X Link 2025-07-14T21:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"so basic $TSM "invasion" math on normalized EPS: - cut EPS by call it 60% since 30% of 2nm and below capacity in the US - they will jack up price significantly and get subsidies from the govt to rebuild so call it a 50% cut - so double the 24x ADR NTM multiple (on stale EPS).you are paying 48x the normalized INVASION-ADJUSTED EPS when stupider companies trade at stupider multiples on CURRENT earnings estimates"
X Link 2025-07-17T13:11Z [----] followers, 34.4K engagements

"top [--] easiest jobs in finance: [--]. Guy in IC who asks about the "recession case" [--]. MF PE VP [--]. Early Stage VC "Partner" [--]. Banking VP [--]. Late Stage VC "Partner" [--]. Post-MBA Associate [--]. LO PM (no bench) [--]. Tariff Consultant [--]. LO Analyst (no bench) [--]. Pumper / Substacker"
X Link 2025-07-18T16:31Z [----] followers, 79.8K engagements

"to quickly tune into the I dont need a catalyst for my long debate: - Earnings power vs. consensus is the only catalyst that matters. This means that you need to have the Company posting positive revisions at some point. Fine to use duration as you cushion (e.g. dunno if Q2 or [--] is the bottom but I think 2026-2027 are well above) but need differentiation - Broadly agree that other catalysts dont matter unless relevant to EPS power - Companies wont re-rate just randomly like they did pre-COVID. The existence of mkt neutral participants means every long needs a short so unless the Company is"
X Link 2025-07-20T19:36Z [----] followers, 46.7K engagements

"@dalibali2 goog maps added more value to society than anything meta has done and its free"
X Link 2025-07-20T19:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"congrats to @Srasgon on also being backballed from $NXPI sellside analyst events congrats to @Srasgon for being blackballed from both $NVDA and $AVGO sellside analyst events congrats to @Srasgon for being blackballed from both $NVDA and $AVGO sellside analyst events"
X Link 2025-07-22T13:00Z [----] followers, 33.8K engagements

"by popular demand TBU's rules of shorting: - need a catalyst to change the "thesis" that bulls are playing for; "valuation for what it is" is insufficient (sorry $IBM bears) - play against actors that think like you. it would be stupid for me to short a meme stock like $OPEN (same with industrials cos) because I think those actors are irrational - put a timeline on your catalyst ("I think people will freak out about $MU because the commentary around HBM will force people to do the S&D math I've already done and I think Samsung qual noise will get louder by the end of August"). evaluate your"
X Link 2025-07-23T18:07Z [----] followers, 21.7K engagements

"I trade megacaps with really just two checks: - this guy I know who got fired from $GOOG right before the '23 rally and joined at the end of '21. short whatever company he joins and then go long when they fire him and get serious. he just joined $AAPL btw - a poly guy I know who works at $AMZN. Every time he picks up an additional girlfriend it's a long. if he dumps one it's a short bc he has to work if the biz sucks. perfect indicator"
X Link 2025-07-24T17:29Z [----] followers, 40.7K engagements

"Takeaways from $INTC call: - the pre-call EDM Intel Inside mix lowkey slaps - bullish $TSM - looks like 18A is over and 14A is DOA - if $INTC gives up on foundry to save product this prob works; til then they are cutting price to defend share - Bunch of love to $CDNS and $SNPS"
X Link 2025-07-24T21:42Z [----] followers, 40.5K engagements

"new guy does an expert network call on his company that was negative. instead of just logging it he freaks out and asserts that the expert is a fraud and tells the network that he needs to know everyone this expert talked to. this was what he was up to all week. unbelievable new guy does it again - beats expectations by showing up to work on July 4th week but misses badly on work product as he spends all day browsing apartments on Streeteasy and not opening Excel one time. will he figure it out in the back half of CY25 FIND OUT SOON new guy does it again - beats expectations by showing up to"
X Link 2025-07-25T15:58Z [----] followers, 70.1K engagements

"reminder - semiconductor companies are better than most companies in other spaces. even $MU had to win the brutal memory wars of the 90s that almost sent all of memory to zero. what you have left are the best of the best operators / innovators; no other space can say that"
X Link 2025-07-29T14:45Z [----] followers, 34.2K engagements

"the $AAPL explanation for why this isn't pull forward is incredible. "the aging base wants to upgrade" sure [--] months into the [--] and right before the [--] the cohorts decided to upgrade all at once. like do they think we are this stupid enjoy ur fade"
X Link 2025-07-31T23:54Z [----] followers, 15.6K engagements

"FUN FACT: the Tiger Cubs have all badly underperformed the market return compounded from [--] (including standout Maverick) with tech leading the way. props to the IR teams at these places"
X Link 2025-08-06T15:41Z [----] followers, 19.1K engagements

"I think the groundwork is sort of laid here for a long $ARM / short $AMD pair: - Arm should start to show progress in server CPU at some core AMD customers next year at significantly lower ASPs than Venice - Arm ASIC + in-house CPU are not in numbers yet whereas AMD contends high high GPU expects + fickle China revs - Arm's first ASIC customer is SB which has every incentive to overspend - Arm is giving you an entry point via its multiple vs. SPX vs. history (and lagging as an AI name) + is a crowded short with limited float; AMD is fully positioned long and at a higher multiple vs. the SPX"
X Link 2025-08-11T17:16Z [----] followers, 35.9K engagements

"reflections from my first weekend in NYC: - more "grifter" types ("courses" guys crypto hangers on) than I've seen since '21 in respectable hangout areas - all types of people spending on insane things even for NYC (saw someone buy a Poland Springs for $12); for now no proclivity to stop - wine lists have 2x'ed with vendors blaming tariffs. I had to order Roumier instead of Armand Rousseau Probably near-term bullish but this feels like Q2 '21 vibes"
X Link 2025-08-17T21:25Z [----] followers, 19.6K engagements

"running list of things that rhyme with 2021: - services re-inflating while goods still hot (this time due to immigration) - the most annoying people bragging about doing the hot thing ("vibe coding" this time but before was "building NFT projects) on weekends but creating no tangible value thereafter - VCs not doing diligence again and paying 100-200x "ARR" multiples again; stupid no-name VC funds raising again - young hotshot raises chunky fund much the the ire of pros (this time Leopold last time Lachy Groom) and doing well - Matthew Pietras is basically Anna Delvy just with bigger $ - the"
X Link 2025-08-17T21:31Z [----] followers, 29.3K engagements

"now that enough time has passed that it's not obvious what this stock was I'm sad to report that the expert was right and new guy took a down 30%+ print in the face new guy does an expert network call on his company that was negative. instead of just logging it he freaks out and asserts that the expert is a fraud and tells the network that he needs to know everyone this expert talked to. this was what he was up to all week. unbelievable new guy does an expert network call on his company that was negative. instead of just logging it he freaks out and asserts that the expert is a fraud and"
X Link 2025-08-18T14:21Z [----] followers, 31.6K engagements

"today was basically the super bowl for why is X down today guys"
X Link 2025-08-20T00:08Z [----] followers, 27.7K engagements

"can't help but admire the guts of this lady in my $MU meeting asking the questions we all have but with zero tact: - How do I own this if Samsung is qualifying - Isn't HBM going into oversupply - Isn't Nu-vid-i-a making the base die"
X Link 2025-08-26T19:41Z [----] followers, 18.7K engagements

"once again only one man and one guide can save us from mega selloff in September $NVDA"
X Link 2025-08-27T18:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"as Aug ends and a weaker Sept nears I'm intrigued by quality megacap u/p (so $MSFT $META $TSM $NVDA even pre- print) vs. junk that ppl extended to buy. I think $TSM is a really interesting rel play and my top scale up idea for Sept; will post spreads later.happy LDW"
X Link 2025-08-29T19:21Z [----] followers, 25.9K engagements

"I think $TSM is really good here: - 3nm demand is significantly higher than supply which will cause 5nm conversions (which they say is not intensive); potential to increase YoY growth by [--] points - margins are still understated and currency is no longer bad guy - the "monopoly" story is over which i think is net good since you need a viable #2 to not be subject to death by [----] cuts; USFG not taking a stake seems like it's decided it's taken enough by forcing local production - SiPho is a total call option for now as Aug ends and a weaker Sept nears I'm intrigued by quality megacap u/p (so"
X Link 2025-09-02T13:53Z [----] followers, 20.5K engagements

"$AVGO very strong print but interesting that non-XPU AI revenues (so true AI networking) only grew 3% sequentially which is mildy shocking given the reads. Is this.the $NVDA effect on networking not to say $AVGO not epic but clearly someone is coming for the networking crown"
X Link 2025-09-04T23:22Z [----] followers, 13.5K engagements

"GS TMT running recap: 1/ the number of ppl who were max long $AVGO and at the same time pissed its up a ton appear equal; pain trade still up"
X Link 2025-09-08T17:35Z [----] followers, 37.1K engagements

"with some duration I think that long $AMAT / short $MU works: - AMAT is 35-40% exposed DRAM applications with an emphasis on commodity. Stock was heavy on ICAPS rugs but China is now rightsized. also benefits from leading edge logic which should be strong next year - the MU commodity cycle is well appreciated + DRAM is driven by CPU strength (for now); SOCAMM a driver in [--] but should mean more equipment - commodity GMs HBM GMs for MU which will take up nums but that's not why it should trade on P/E not book (implicit in this is "this time isn't different"); AMAT is discount vs its mult"
X Link 2025-09-19T13:03Z [----] followers, 33K engagements

"I view the $BABA commit to invest $50B+ in [--] years as very bullish for $NVDA and their ability to start selling in China again given the commentary and the sheer size of investment relative to (current) domestic production"
X Link 2025-09-24T13:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"it happened I'm finally bullish $AMD for a chip shot into earnings: - we know trad server CPU is the main culprit behind this memory rip and the stock has seen no goodness - Xilinx is finally ok which is their big gross profit driver (Alterra raising px) - deal with $INTC is bullish since they aren't out in the cold with the govt + can be in good graces - MI400X is unknowable but the space is so hot that the analyst day probably needs to be viewed as a positive catalyst post-print since they can guide a mega number and you won't be able to call BS on it"
X Link 2025-10-02T13:46Z [----] followers, 29.3K engagements

"saving this for later $SNDK"
X Link 2025-10-03T16:39Z [----] followers, 27.9K engagements

"first 20-30 min of $DELL analyst day literally explaining to us why AI is like important instead of why they are like.at all relevant in this world. in case you needed another reason that this was a total laggard co"
X Link 2025-10-07T13:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I think it's more apparent than ever now that any outperformer long needs a credible bear case to overcome or it will lag. I like $AMAT (even respected PMs will point to China as structural issue and forget DRAM torque) and favored $AMD (MI400X is a zero) for those reasons. $TSM was trash when it was n of [--] but now there are real bear cases you can overcome (or disprove) post-Trump / $INTC vs. fantasy bear cases"
X Link 2025-10-08T17:50Z [----] followers, 18.9K engagements

"bubble boy generalist starter pack: - $STX $20 of EPS by 20x - $MU $20-25 of RR EPS by 12.5x - $CLS cuz it's up a lot - $SFBY as "cheap" OpenAI exposure (PT=infinity) - scouts in $RGTI $IONQ $QBTS - won't add to $NVDA because "my cost basis is like $30 bro""
X Link 2025-10-08T22:27Z [----] followers, 27K engagements

"credit to Toshiya / Colette for stripping out China from $NVDA revs. betting on the reversion of the $NVDA vs. the junk is probably once more the correct move here"
X Link 2025-10-10T21:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"big props to Michael Dell for dumping $1B of $DELL stock on buffoonish LOs buying at the top right before the big China draw. there's a reason this guy is a billionaire what a legend"
X Link 2025-10-13T16:22Z [----] followers, 42.9K engagements

"guys what if the incremental revenues are actually bad $NVDA $AVGO $AMD. Another banger from the Information"
X Link 2025-10-17T13:39Z [----] followers, 41K engagements

"literally fell over laughing when i saw the headline but pods gotta cover nonetheless which should be comical $NVDA $QCOM *QUALCOMM SHARES JUMP 14% AFTER UNVEILING CHIP TO RIVAL NVIDIA"
X Link 2025-10-27T14:42Z [----] followers, 10.2K engagements

"are we literally asleep at the wheel $NVDA with a gigaraise to consensus"
X Link 2025-10-28T17:27Z [----] followers, 66K engagements

"broad takeaways: - $SMCI is giving away AI servers for free which is cool I guess. can't wait for the boomers to hammer the bid on $DELL anyway - $AMD gotta spend money to make money. broadly think this is pretty good and keeps the bull thesis on track - $ANET got some 'splaining to do - $LITE optical go brrr"
X Link 2025-11-04T21:52Z [----] followers, 26.2K engagements

"top [--] Twitter calls of the year: - @dalibali2 call on Stargate being the harbinger of bloody April - @Citrini7 bottom-ticking $TER - @evrgn11112231 on hodling $ASML - @fabknowledge / @SemiAnalysis_ calling out the $QCOM trash ASIC - @viggy_krishnan long $SFTBY for OAI exposure"
X Link 2025-11-05T18:31Z [----] followers, 55.7K engagements

"Harlan Sur asks questions so long that management has to literally update the guide since it's literally mid-quarter by the time he's done yapping. Much love to big Harlan though $ARM"
X Link 2025-11-05T22:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

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