@SouthernValue95 Avatar @SouthernValue95 SouthernValue

SouthernValue posts on X about ai, $msft, in the, $goog the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence stocks 53% technology brands 39% finance 21% cryptocurrencies 5% countries 3% fashion brands 3% events 1% automotive brands 1% social networks 1%

Social topic influence ai 19%, $msft #80, in the 11%, $goog #22, stocks 8%, $amzn 7%, $orcl 6%, this is 6%, business 6%, if you 6%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @evrgn11112231 @satyanadella @pythiar @ggpcap @stephen1426397 @acapitallp @dylan522p @hedgeyecomm @theromanianone @gavinsbaker @jaredsleeper @openai @anthropicai @fabknowledge @garrytan @gringoinvesting @dwarkeshsp @benioff @sundarpichai @altcap

Top assets mentioned Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Workday Inc (WDAY) Metadium (META) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO) Salesforce Inc (CRM) Now Coin (NOW) Adobe, Inc. (ADBE) monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) Roper Technologies Inc (ROP) General Electric Company (GE) SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY) Charter Communications Inc (CHTR) Autodesk Inc (ADSK) ZoomInfo Technologies Inc Common Stock (GTM) Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT) ELYSIA (EL) CH Robinson Worldwide Inc (CHRW) Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Atkore Inc. (ATKR) IAC/InterActiveCorp Common Stock (IAC) Gartner Inc (IT) Global Payments Inc (GPN) MGM Resorts International (MGM) Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) CarMax, Inc (KMX) Certara, Inc. (CERT) WillScot Mobile Mini Holdings, Corp. (WSC) WIX.com Ltd. (WIX) Zoom Video Communications Inc (ZM) Atlassian Corporation PLC (TEAM) Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) CoStar Group, Inc. (CSGP) S&P Global Inc (SPGI) Intuit Inc. (INTU) TransDigm Group, Inc. (TDG)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"The (Karaoke) company causing logistics companies to lose 1/4 of their market caps today bc of its breakthrough AI innovation: No you see a karaoke machine company said they vibe coded freight forwarding and that caused $CHRW to crater which caused degrossing across all industrials that then spilled over into everything else & caused retail to panic sell and thats how we got the Great Depression of [----] No you see a karaoke machine company said they vibe coded freight forwarding and that caused $CHRW to crater which caused degrossing across all industrials that then spilled over into"
X Link 2026-02-13T01:26Z 14.9K followers, 55.3K engagements

"Fwd PE of S&P [---] equal weight of 17x is [--] turns below the SPY avg of 22x. That delta was 0x for 10yrs before [----] and has blown out to the widest levels post GFC (dont have equal weight data prior to 2010). Current equal weight fwd P/E is avg vs last 10yrs and -20% lower than [----] peak. Would like to see this data extending to the 1970s if anyone has it Takeaway is the whole mkt is not super expensive after this little pullback"
X Link 2024-12-20T03:01Z 14.9K followers, 86.8K engagements

"$MSFT has said to think of capex growth in the mid-teens % in FY26 and for long-lived assets (datacenter shells HVAC Fiber Power etc.) spend as % of that capex to revert from current elevated 60/40 ratio to as much as 30/70 in favor of servers/semis in 2026+. The simple math of this makes its really hard to see how industrial revenues benefitting from the boom in the "long-lived assets" category can grow in 2026+ at least w/ $MSFT (but ratio of spend elevated elsewhere too). Simply put MSFT has been double-ordering datacenters in L24mo to catch up to demand so that category of spend will"
X Link 2025-01-31T19:53Z 14.9K followers, 178.2K engagements

"Always have to do your own work. Here Goldmans $GOOG SOTP has a bust adding a 10% premium to SOTP vs a 10% discount. The error leads to a SOTP value of $220 vs $179 if corrected. Maybe AI will replace us faster than I thought"
X Link 2025-06-04T13:28Z 14.9K followers, 77K engagements

"Stocks like $NVDA $AMD $ORCL $AVGO may still be reasonable/cheap looking out to [----] on numbers that assume OpenAI's massive AI infra projects get funded and built but it is also rational for markets to apply very high VC-like discount rates to those out year FCF. OpenAI needing to 15x revenue in 5yrs to fund the buildout is basically VC-type risk and there is significant funding risk at every step along the way as OAI's burn rate is getting worse not better as it grows. This persistent funding risk leaves the AI bull case constantly vulnerable to a system shock like higher rates a recession"
X Link 2025-10-18T05:07Z 14.9K followers, 73.8K engagements

"Best moment from the @dylan522p and @dwarkesh_sp podcast with $MSFT CEO @satyanadella:"
X Link 2025-11-12T22:45Z 14.9K followers, 277.8K engagements

"What is a stock that has a legitimate bear case or hasnt executed perfectly and the stock price is just completely dislocated from historical and relative norms bc its extremely hated (Not saying all will work obv but interesting pile to dig through). Things like: - $CHTR - $WDAY - $CRM - $GPN - $ATKR - $IAC - $MGM - $ABNB - $KMX - $IT - $ADBE - $CERT - $WSC https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1994103268142690372 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1994103268142690372"
X Link 2025-11-27T17:57Z 14.9K followers, 31.5K engagements

"Where the software shorts and I are in agreement is that financial management of these companies is a complete disaster. Software companies are run more loosely than in any other industry bc 1) biz model is so good but also 2) investors have tolerated it. There is no focus on actual shareholder value creation outside of some growth and vague sandbagged adjusted profitability targets. Buybacks used to offset dilution is not a return to shareholders"
X Link 2026-01-17T01:53Z 14.9K followers, 135K engagements

"$ADSK 7% RIF announced today a second large RIF in consecutive years highlights that while most public software companies are being run with a cost structure intended to support rapid growth the businesses can operate with significantly leaner cost structures as they mature. This is why fast-growing software companies are valued in public and private markets on different frameworks than multiple of current GAAP earnings (and yes those frameworks have been badly abused by investors and companies). ADSK is currently spending 33% of revenue on sales and marketing expenses. And there has been a"
X Link 2026-01-22T18:14Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"100% of S&P performance since [----] has been driven by earnings growth offset by modest multiple contraction"
X Link 2026-01-22T21:40Z 14.9K followers, 24.2K engagements

"@HedgeyeComm Well the companies need to do what $WIX is doing with Base44 and be their own disruptor. $MNDY recent analyst day was basically all abt Monday Vibe and Monday Agents"
X Link 2026-01-31T17:49Z 14.8K followers, [----] engagements

"@Benioff @sundarpichai @altcap Tam advantage of the dislocation and buy $WDAY"
X Link 2026-02-08T00:24Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"@TheRomanianOne What [--] software stocks are going to get disrupted by ai Summarize in a table"
X Link 2026-02-08T16:49Z 14.9K followers, [---] engagements

"@PythiaR @evrgn11112231 $ZM $GOOG $AMZN"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:13Z 14.8K followers, [---] engagements

"@evrgn11112231 Outside of targeted ads entertainment/engagement what do you think they actually build into a real business Glasses Enterprise LLM API Sovereign AI"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:23Z 14.8K followers, [---] engagements

"@zoomyzoomm lol most havent reported yet. $NOW $ROP $TEAM all increasing buyback and will be more"
X Link 2026-02-09T01:45Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"@evrgn11112231 One of these is a duopoly and critical enabler of global GDP growth and the other is a credit rating agency 😉"
X Link 2026-02-10T18:47Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"@ggpcap Low GDR comes w/ SMB. Can still have a profitable model at scale look at $PAYX. Valuation is compelling. Too much SBC but Claude code should help with that"
X Link 2026-02-12T01:41Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"@Wallfacer_LuoJi Few more months until $WDAY there on NTM. Welcome to the club"
X Link 2026-02-12T03:19Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"@DanielSLoeb1 What do you think abt $CSGP being a potential AI loser and how can they defend against it Thx"
X Link 2026-02-12T19:27Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"I got killed on this. Do not currently own as I figured in this environment there was no way to work on a guide below (even though that was expected since Dec) and took a tax loss. I do not think it is a short at 1.5x sales / 10x FCF / 50% of mkt cap in cash while still growing top quartile of public SW. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022458005229314396 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022458005229314396"
X Link 2026-02-13T23:48Z 14.9K followers, [---] engagements

"@valuations_ Cool one - real value stock at 8x EPS. Data moat so its not just software. What do you think abt Checkr API-first model Do you think estimates for this year are de risked"
X Link 2026-02-14T00:23Z 14.9K followers, [---] engagements

"@Stephen1426397 Wow this is quite cheap. Why is packaged food getting hit I thought staples getting a safety bid"
X Link 2026-02-14T00:34Z 14.9K followers, [---] engagements

"Now for your ideas Id love to hear them 🙏"
X Link 2026-02-13T22:37Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"@DScwarz @ACapitalLP lol"
X Link 2026-02-13T22:43Z 14.9K followers, [---] engagements

"@evrgn11112231 @GavinSBaker At least Dario admitted $META is a monopoly. That said he thinks there are only [--] (OAI/GOOG/Anth) maybe [--] (X) AI companies so hes not a $META Maxi 😢🤣"
X Link 2026-02-14T19:29Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"@evrgn11112231 @GavinSBaker Imagine earnings growth if their only AI efforts were ad targeting engagement and content generation 😩"
X Link 2026-02-14T19:36Z 14.9K followers, [---] engagements

"20/25 largest companies in the world are American companies. Bottom [--] on this chart are a bit crazy to me"
X Link 2026-01-23T15:46Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"Not surprising that $MSFT would be slower to release new products than a startup. MSFT cannot bring to market limited releases for MacOS. New products must be able to run on any hardware every version of every OS at scale all over the world with no vulnerabilities or glitches. They will be therefore be more risk averse and act as fast followers in agents just like Teams was vs Slack/Zoom. In the meantime competitors buy them time by being forced to build on top of MSFT platforms (Claude for excel instead of Claude spreadsheets). Then when the MSFT product gets to good enough status theyll"
X Link 2026-01-24T23:06Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"Hasnt been the same since he left us $CRM $NOW $MSFT $WDAY"
X Link 2026-01-29T22:15Z 14.9K followers, 13.8K engagements

"#RPO This is a general comment about software companies: If you look across the software industry you see record levels of RPO - these are future revenues that are tied to a performance obligation before you can recognize it and before a customer has to pay you. The problem with This is a general comment about software companies: If you look across the software industry you see record levels of RPO - these are future revenues that are tied to a performance obligation before you can recognize it and before a customer has to pay you. The problem with"
X Link 2026-01-30T00:26Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"This aggression will not stand man Quality getting rocked YTD. Dev is one of the quality 🐐s and like [--] of his stocks are down (almost) double digits today $FICO: -8% $MCO: -8% $SPGI: -10% $INTU: -12% $EFX: -10% The overall port could be down 6% today. Huge moves. Valley Forge doesn't hold $TDG but that's -12% https://t.co/CvKOcyYxVL Quality getting rocked YTD. Dev is one of the quality 🐐s and like [--] of his stocks are down (almost) double digits today $FICO: -8% $MCO: -8% $SPGI: -10% $INTU: -12% $EFX: -10% The overall port could be down 6% today. Huge moves. Valley Forge doesn't hold $TDG"
X Link 2026-02-03T22:54Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"Jensen on software: Remember what software is. Software is a tool. There is a notion that software is in decline and will be replaced by AI. It is the most illogical thing in the world and time will prove itself. Suppose we are the ultimate AI artificial general robotics the ultimate version of AI that can solve any problem. If you are a human or robot would you use a screwdriver or invent a new one Id just use one. Would you use a chainsaw or invent a new chainsaw. You would use one. If you are artificial general robotics you will obviously use tools. Now do the digital version of that if"
X Link 2026-02-04T13:39Z 14.9K followers, 65K engagements

"lol. Think about what we really know vs what is discounted as the consensus without being known. Sundar for the win. 🙌 https://t.co/HjMWa9CFSg Sundar for the win. 🙌 https://t.co/HjMWa9CFSg"
X Link 2026-02-08T00:21Z 14.9K followers, 11.5K engagements

"This is truly pathetic. If you ask Gemini what [--] public software companies are most likely to be disrupted by AI And the opposite those that wont $ADBE shows up on both lists. Use AI to work better faster dont outsource your thinking. Dan Loeb hedged up using Claude. I asked Claude using his prompt. Did other PMs do similar things this past week https://t.co/H3zEHmB9CE Dan Loeb hedged up using Claude. I asked Claude using his prompt. Did other PMs do similar things this past week https://t.co/H3zEHmB9CE"
X Link 2026-02-08T15:55Z 14.9K followers, 23.1K engagements

"A bit wild that $MNDY remains a top quartile public market software company grower (25% this qtr 27% LTM should hold 20% this year) yet is trading among the cheapest EV/S EV/GP EV/FCF on the comp set. I think the no-touch weakness is mostly an SEO issue. SEO is dying replaced by paid clicks but the ROIC on paid is challenging as ad prices inflate (everyone chasing limited growth) and this part of the TAM has low LTV anyways (low $100-$1k ARR higher churn limited upsell potential) so cant justify much CAC. NRR ex price is stable and churn is at alltime lows so I dont suspect competitive or"
X Link 2026-02-10T01:59Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"$HUBS is showing basically zero signs of deteriorating core fundamentals. Healthy NNARR growth and sustaining high teens topline growth at scale. In tough segment of the mkt at that dealing w/ SEO headwinds in SMB"
X Link 2026-02-12T01:28Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"$AWS $MSFT $GOOG $ORCL:"
X Link 2026-02-13T03:47Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"@ACapitalLP Youre thinking abt this now after the entire world has thought abt it for [--] months and you expect it to make money Whats your price target on something like $MNDY which has half of its mkt cap in cash and generates FCF"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:22Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"Ideas thread. If you would be so kind please share: - What recent stock reaction is a baby thrown out with the bathwater - Why is the stock down - What is the market missing/wrong about - What will change investors minds"
X Link 2026-02-13T22:37Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"For example: - $AMZN reported great numbers in 4Q w/ accelerating growth in AWS and its role providing infrastructure to support Anthropic (which is growing explosively and accelerated in Jan/Feb) should cause AWS growth to incrementally accelerate through [----]. - Why is the stock down A 1Q guidance miss on margins (in part due to expensed satellite launch cost that will be capitalized in 2H) and a larger than expected capex guide spooked investors and caused [----] EPS estimates to fall by 2%. The stock is now -22% from Nov 3rd [----] highs. - What is the market missing AWS grew 24% in 4Q25 and"
X Link 2026-02-13T22:37Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"Is the quality bubble thoroughly popped Asset light compounders are in shambles. Which means many are just back to reasonably good valuations that they traded at regularly 2015-2019. At the same time $COST $WMT $ODFL $GE and other asset heavy quality names are at insane valuations of 40-50x EPS having gotten an additional flight to safety premium as investors rotate away from info services / tech and AI uncertainty. These too shall fall is my guess. But open to other opinions. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022661960488161640 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022661960488161640"
X Link 2026-02-14T13:19Z 14.9K followers, 15.9K engagements

"Forget what the stock price has done for a moment. $GTM is actually demonstrating exactly the financial discipline capital allocation prudence and aligned compensation incentives for mgmt/EEs that are supportive of long-term value creation. Most public software companies are creating self-inflicted headwinds in each of these areas. Props to @HenryLSchuck for controlling what he can control. The reality is that this business over earned cyclically in COVID and has since matured with some more competition at the low end of the market. However Revenue and retention trends have stabilized the"
X Link 2026-02-14T15:12Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"Some software companies get it. Read below from 4Q earnings call. Honestly this is a masterclass in corporate governance. Turning to capital allocation. I would first reiterate our commitment to using the majority of the cash we generate to repurchase ZoomInfo shares for as long as that is the best and highest return use of our free cash flow. Given the unprecedented negative sentiment of public markets toward anything software related we believe our share price is completely disconnected from economic reality. As such today we announced an additional $1 billion authorization for share"
X Link 2026-02-14T15:12Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"Heres one more: Forget what the stock price has done for a moment. $GTM is actually demonstrating exactly the financial discipline capital allocation prudence and aligned compensation incentives for mgmt/EEs that are supportive of long-term value creation. Most public software companies are Forget what the stock price has done for a moment. $GTM is actually demonstrating exactly the financial discipline capital allocation prudence and aligned compensation incentives for mgmt/EEs that are supportive of long-term value creation. Most public software companies are"
X Link 2026-02-14T15:13Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"@JaredSleeper lol cmon its the Anthropic stake"
X Link 2026-02-15T00:54Z 14.9K followers, [---] engagements

"It was because Dario threatened the video editors job I love Dario I love Dwarkesh but oh my god why would they put this cut in the podcast recording. https://t.co/vbs08DIy9U I love Dario I love Dwarkesh but oh my god why would they put this cut in the podcast recording. https://t.co/vbs08DIy9U"
X Link 2026-02-15T03:13Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"@viggy_krishnan Opportunity for companies to architect themselves in a way that much of the back office functions are entirely verifiable. But would not say this leaves much of the worlds work as completely replaceable by an agent"
X Link 2026-02-15T18:24Z 14.9K followers, [---] engagements

"$GOOG $MSFT $NOW $CRM @OpenAI @AnthropicAI Cognizant Google Cloud Team Up to Operationalize Agentic AI Across Enterprises Cognizant Google Cloud Team Up to Operationalize Agentic AI Across Enterprises"
X Link 2026-02-16T06:35Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"@fabknowledge So all this is to build something worth 8-10x PE at maturity"
X Link 2026-02-16T22:10Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"@fabknowledge And does that make $NVDA the $GE"
X Link 2026-02-16T22:11Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"Amidst the excitement its worth considering this Softbank + $ORCL involvement in Stargate exists because $MSFT and @satyanadella had the exclusive right to build 100% of that infrastructure and after careful consideration opted NOT to"
X Link 2025-01-22T14:52Z 14.9K followers, 26.8K engagements

"@garrytan Jevons paradox doesnt preclude cycles. You must not have studied the solar panel industry"
X Link 2025-01-27T01:14Z 14.9K followers, 38.4K engagements

"Momentum investors scrambling to find fundamental justification for their longs @garrytan Jevons paradox doesnt preclude cycles. You must not have studied the solar panel industry. https://t.co/aUjkcgiUK7 @garrytan Jevons paradox doesnt preclude cycles. You must not have studied the solar panel industry. https://t.co/aUjkcgiUK7"
X Link 2025-01-27T13:32Z 14.9K followers, 33K engagements

"No January performance excuses - $RSP beating $SPY and $CCMP"
X Link 2025-01-31T18:04Z 14.8K followers, [----] engagements

"$PANW w/ -50% reduction in spend on contract IT support labor thanks to AI-driven efficiencies. $ACN $IBM $EPAM"
X Link 2025-02-13T22:07Z 14.9K followers, 38.3K engagements

"Good flag by Goldman yesterday on an unhealthy level of retail buying moving stocks lately concentrated in tech and calling to fade this trade as retail investors need to sell stocks to pay capital gains taxes in March and April"
X Link 2025-02-20T15:46Z 14.9K followers, 19.5K engagements

"Narrative violation: big cap tech is under-owned (by active managers). This is somewhat structural but is below normal levels. Only $META is an active mger overweight among the Mag6. $MSFT $AMZN $GOOG $AAPL $TSLA are underweights"
X Link 2025-02-20T16:32Z 14.9K followers, 19.7K engagements

"DC power/electrical trade has been feeling some pain. Keeping up w/ the datapoints. $MSFT CEO @satyanadella went on a podcast and said we are clearly overbuilding AI DCs and he's glad he's leasing some and not building everything bc he's sure prices will be cheaper: "By the way there will be overbuild. To your point about what happened in the dotcom era the memo has gone out that hey you need more energy and you need more compute. So everybody's going to race. it's not just companies deploying countries are going to deploy capital. I'm so excited to be a leaser. I build a lot I lease a lot. I"
X Link 2025-02-21T18:31Z 14.9K followers, 66.7K engagements

"Classically dumb Chamath tweet. Both main st and wall st will win or lose together. Even if this made sense theres no way to express this trade. If you just want to bet on a recession buy bonds. If MAGA wants to claim a recession means main st is winning thats just propaganda. Long Main St. Short Wall St. The spread trade of our lifetime has started. Long Main St. Short Wall St. The spread trade of our lifetime has started"
X Link 2025-03-09T22:03Z 14.9K followers, 67.3K engagements

"After listening to Lutnick and Bessent on All-in Im baffled how the Treasury Secretary appointment could have created even the slightest bit of debate between the two"
X Link 2025-03-22T03:48Z 14.9K followers, 26K engagements

"When @theallinpod has a compelling guest"
X Link 2025-03-29T14:33Z 14.9K followers, 26.2K engagements

"We have had: - Universal reciprocal tariffs - A removal back down to 10% - 50% Chinese tariffs - 90% Chinese tariffs - 104% Chinese tariffs - 125% Chinese tariffs - 145% Chinese tariffs - Electronics exempted - Electronics now potentially back on. Good luck trying to trade the next headline"
X Link 2025-04-13T16:08Z 14.9K followers, 19.1K engagements

"I sit on a nonprofit board where I have tried for years - unsuccessfully - to fire our incompetent endowment manager and just index the capital. I was at least successful in bringing down our fees but that doesnt come close to offsetting negative performance which somehow lags every imaginable environment: growth value international U.S. whatever is leading we somehow lag. So this manager has become valuable to me as a contra. Unsurprisingly they went defensive in April and he's now talking about the progress of Chinese trade negotiations and how we will get more aggressive when things are"
X Link 2025-05-01T15:07Z 14.9K followers, 36.7K engagements

"Why do stocks in the U.S. trade at a premium to the RoW The below analysis from Goldman suggests high ROE's in the U.S. explains a significant portion of it. The S&P [---] is a quality index. "Return on equity can explain 93% of the variation in sector-level P/B valuation across the S&P [---] and MSCI World ex. US." The ideal business is one that earns very high returns on capital and that keeps using lots of capital at those high returns. That becomes a compounding machine. - Warren Buffett The higher return a business can earn on its capital the more cash it can produce the more value is"
X Link 2025-05-05T14:08Z 14.9K followers, 24.9K engagements

"To each their own. Indexing works. There are some phenomenal quant investors. I probably listen to [---] earnings calls per quarter and its value additive to my process Id probably even say its core. Easy to multi task (drive/run/model/emails/administrative tasks) so it doesnt prevent productivity. Many calls are 30-40min you can listen at 1.5x speed. When something notable sticks out Ill pause rewind re listen and jot down a note. Helps to build a mosaic of what is happening in the world what is important to companies particular themes & occasionally youll get good ideas from a call that apply"
X Link 2025-06-15T02:30Z 14.9K followers, 41.3K engagements

"If youre a growth/garp investor and youre wrong about a business youll probably lose a fair amount of money on the investment but at least youll figure out that youre right or wrong fairly quickly and be able to adjust/learn from mistakes. For the rigid value investors who are top-down mean reversionists first and foremost if youre wrong about the [---] year Case Shiller CAPE PE being the defining gravitational pull on markets you can be wrong for [--] years (as many have) and your [---] year dataset will still be barely impacted (10%). How will you realize youre wrong if it turns out that way"
X Link 2025-06-30T00:33Z 14.9K followers, 18.6K engagements

"This 20yr 100-bagger is under discussed: $APH"
X Link 2025-07-09T13:22Z 14.9K followers, 34.1K engagements

"Some of the businesses might be. But $ROPs App SW segment are just over a dozen companies that are $100-400M ARR generally vertical SORs that compete w/ $ORCL $CRM $WDAY or serve very small businesses. Their markets are large enough to have a handful of well funded competitors already and $ROP is usually buying the mkt leader bc of significant competitive advantages not related to the cost of R&D: a network effect integrated payments and systems platform dynamics etc. The largest companies in the portfolio - Strata Aderant Deltek Vertafore Cbord are platforms and have done multiple tuck-ins."
X Link 2025-07-20T00:01Z 14.8K followers, [---] engagements

"@amasad Thanks I hadnt seen the financials so its impossible for me to be lying though its quite possible Im wrong. Mind sharing the proper context as to how Anthropic and OAI can be making more revenue off your V2 than you are but you can still have positive GMs"
X Link 2025-08-10T16:28Z 14.9K followers, 48.8K engagements

"$ORLY is an 8-bagger since it (and other retailers) were considered uninvestible as a category bc $AMZN bought Whole Foods and there was an undisprovable bear thesis that all brick and mortar business were zeros. America was over retailed. Some of that was right - malls died. Some models were resilient and adaptable to e-commerce. May be some of these in software today"
X Link 2025-08-13T01:00Z 14.9K followers, 55.1K engagements

"People are really trying too hard to be thought leaders predicting the way distant future based on an emerging technology where it isnt yet clear what the ultimate capabilities or limitations will be what ultimate architectures will define the adoption of the technology or where the sustainable competitive advantages will reside along the value chain. None of this laundry list of bear cases for SaaS are happening today (exception of budget crowding from AI). Before the last 3wks panic and before the emergence of GenAI/AgenticAI software has been in a protracted 3yr deceleration on the heels"
X Link 2025-08-14T02:00Z 14.9K followers, 81.2K engagements

"Howard Marks the master marketer. Makes a provocative statement to grab headlines equities are expensive early stages of a bubble reminds me of 1990s while not making a call so that he cant be faulted for being wrong: it might be time to exercise caution but stocks could continue to get more expensive. His solution Invest in (Oakmark) credit. Makes no mention of record low credit spreads however though the host checks him on the omission. One might say: credits are expensive early stages of a bubble. It might be time to exercise caution but credit spreads could continue to narrow."
X Link 2025-08-23T00:55Z 14.9K followers, 26.9K engagements

"$MSFT a 2x in 4yrs since John predicted a lost decade for the stock. Cant link the OP since Im blocked"
X Link 2025-09-03T21:15Z 14.9K followers, 17.8K engagements

"Johns of Bleecker Street announcing they will invest in 10GW of GPU AI infrastructure by [----] supported by an investment from $NVDA"
X Link 2025-10-15T18:58Z 14.9K followers, 75.8K engagements

"Not your average mechanical contractor $FIX"
X Link 2025-10-25T03:39Z 14.9K followers, 388.9K engagements

"Warren Buffett spoke at the University of Florida in [----] forshadowing the structure of his now legendary Japan trade [--] years before acting. That is some patience"
X Link 2025-10-29T19:23Z 14.9K followers, 37.8K engagements

"This is kindof an insane length of time for $VZ to have an outage Still getting SOS"
X Link 2026-01-15T00:40Z 14.8K followers, [----] engagements

"@InverseMarcus Look at $AVGO running its software companies at 65% EBITDA margins. Look at $MSFT $ROP $ADBE. Not every back end developer maintaining a mature system needs to be in the valley making $400k + SBC. 2/3 of $ORCL technical talent is abroad (lot in India)"
X Link 2026-01-17T03:56Z 14.8K followers, [----] engagements

"$Prgs the owner of document storage and sharing app Sharefile (acquired as a castoff from the merged entity that is former Citrix and Tibco) along with various legacy mainframe dev tools is up +19% today and at +12% YTD that makes it one of the best performing software stocks in the market. Organic growth is 0-2% and some of their products are [--] years old. At 3x sales it now trades at about the same valuation as $MNDY which is growing in the mid-20s organically. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014007234292805823 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014007234292805823"
X Link 2026-01-21T16:08Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"I asked Gemini to deep research @OpenAI and @AnthropicAI job postings to see if they are using Jira anywhere in the org. Somewhat surprisingly Jira is used all over from accounts payable SOX compliance facilities mgmt ITSM and recruiting ops. Even though Linear and internal tools are used for DevOps. $NVDA is also a Jira and Confluence user and upgraded from Datacenter to Cloud last year - a complex migration effort that would have been an easy reason to churn if they planned to ditch the tools anytime soon. A bit of a narrative violation that companies at the bleeding edge of AI adoption"
X Link 2026-01-21T21:56Z 14.9K followers, 18.5K engagements

"But thats not true in any single year. and to keep up pace of recent year returns we'd need to break through the [----] low-rate bubble valuations"
X Link 2026-01-22T21:41Z 14.9K followers, [----] engagements

"@obsidiancap1 Jay from $CFLT is on BoD and took $ from Carl / sequoia right Lol maybe was asked to remove given a slight to a (well connected) vendor"
X Link 2026-01-26T20:54Z 14.8K followers, [----] engagements

"@conorsen Guessing nonprofit and SoftBank an other strategics going to hold for a bit"
X Link 2026-01-30T01:33Z 14.8K followers, [---] engagements

"@ContrarianCurse Went ex growth to fuel the fear"
X Link 2026-01-30T01:45Z 14.8K followers, [----] engagements

"@HedgeyeComm Lot of inbetween opportunity tho and MNDY still taking share in ITSM CRM and Proj mgmt today. Has good tech platform good product team $1.7B of cash and a core biz throwing off $300-400M of FCF next few years to go after this opportunity"
X Link 2026-01-31T17:50Z 14.8K followers, [----] engagements

"@evrgn11112231 Bearish OAI as in you think it actually fails Sortof think w/ $100B + IPO they will be too big to fail"
X Link 2026-01-31T18:46Z 14.8K followers, [---] engagements

"@PythiaR What do you think abt $NOW"
X Link 2026-02-03T01:39Z 14.8K followers, [----] engagements

"Chamaths cheap insurance 5yr short bets have lost -77% and -106% as we approach year [--]. The growing short case on $FB and $GOOG: [--]. New product experiences [--]. Regulation [--]. Taxes [--]. Anti-trust If you have the capital/stomach for a 5yr+ bet heres how Id build the short case. The growing short case on $FB and $GOOG: [--]. New product experiences [--]. Regulation [--]. Taxes [--]. Anti-trust If you have the capital/stomach for a 5yr+ bet heres how Id build the short case"
X Link 2024-03-09T03:26Z 14.9K followers, 418.9K engagements

"$AVGO CEO Hok Tan saying that his view of $NVDA's competitive position vs. cloud custom ASICs ("XPU's") has changed in the last [--] months. He previously thought the AI market would mostly be won by merchant silicon (i.e. NVDA/AMD GPU) but now thinks it will be mostly custom ASICs: "I used to think that general-purpose merchant silicon will win at the end of the day. I flipped in my view. And I did that by the way last quarter." Full quote below"
X Link 2024-09-06T02:27Z 14.9K followers, 214.3K engagements

"Charlie Kawwas head of $AVGO semis business was even more explicit and detailed on this today at GS segmenting the AI accelerator mkt into three parts: - Internet scale customers ( $META $GOOG Bytedance Tencent): significant logic and value for these companies spending $10s of Bns all on internal infra to customize ASICs for own environments. AVGO can bring new XPUs to mkt in a year. Sees most of this mkt going to custom silicon in 5yrs. - Hyperscale Clouds: more work to do to get adoption of custom accelerators since you also need customers to be willing to work with them. But the leaders"
X Link 2024-09-11T21:02Z 14.9K followers, 52.9K engagements

"Hyperscale clouds will get their ROIC on AI capex but there is still a debate to be had. While $AMZN $MSFT may overbuild in the short term if AI demand weakens they are not renting GPUs at a loss. They've been very clear that capex is fungible for other purposes if demand disappoints vs. forecasts perhaps w/ some time lag (would be more concerned abt others like $ORCL / Coreweave recovering ROI in a downside case). The debate regarding AI capex ROIC should be centered around: 1) The ROIC of GPU buyers ex-clouds. Mostly: will frontier model companies make $ OpenAI has negative gross margins if"
X Link 2024-09-13T21:15Z 14.9K followers, 29K engagements

"Stocks are pretty expensive but the problem rly isnt in the giant tech companies at the top. Yesterday I calculated that $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG $META were trading at a NTM PE of 24x a 10% premium to the S&P but theyre monopolies growing earnings 20%+ with fortress balance sheets. So many of the stock price bro compounder arguments on why your 5-6% EPS grower should trade at 45x P/E because its a good business when $MSFT is at 30x In time many will bite the dust heard this on $EL the whole way up So many of the stock price bro compounder arguments on why your 5-6% EPS grower should trade at 45x P/E"
X Link 2024-11-02T01:16Z 14.9K followers, 45K engagements

"$VRT reported today and the stock is down -8%. While 4Q sales were terrific growing almost +26% yoy and guidance for +16% growth in [----] was roughly in-line w/ cons (and they tend to be conservative) none of that is really new information as we already knew [----] would be a great year for AI datacenter spend. VRTs high valuation requires robust growth into [----] and [----] (came into print at 35x NTM vs. traded 10-20x from 2020-2023). The stock is down because new orders placed came in negative for 4Q below expectations for HSD-LDD growth and VRTs backlog declined sequentially by $200M. Backlog"
X Link 2025-02-12T17:36Z 14.9K followers, 123.5K engagements

"$GE $TEVA $MMM $DIS $KHC $BUD $LUV $PYPL $WBA $DG $EL $NKE $SBUX $BA $INTC $DEO $CHTR / Liberty $POOL Welcome to the Quality Compounder traps club $UNH Step One: Start off Expensive Step Two: Not much growth Step Three: Real rot underneath Steph/ Four: Well known bear case that gets ignored Sprinkle some leverage and imprudent capital allocation Mission Complete: Bags loaded"
X Link 2025-05-15T00:57Z 14.9K followers, 37.7K engagements

"OpenAI hits $10B ARR just [---] years after the launch of GPT. @theinformation reported earlier this year OAI planned to do $11B revenue in [----]. They're on pace to exit the year at mid-high-teens $B in ARR🤯 $MSFT $GOOG $META"
X Link 2025-06-09T18:06Z 14.9K followers, 176.9K engagements

"$AMZN call update"
X Link 2025-07-31T21:50Z 14.9K followers, 28.3K engagements

"Replit CEO: companies were subsidizing the cost of AI paying more money to Anthropic and OpenAI than they were making Host: Is that was you were doing Uh on v1 no on v2 yes bc our pricing was (is) out of whack (so yes). Conversations abt AI startups eating the lunch of established vendors should include the context that some of these hot startups w/ eye popping revenue ramps are just giving compute credits away at a discount obviously that can lead to a lot of revenue growth. Obviously it isnt sustainable. Remember MoviePass"
X Link 2025-08-09T16:57Z 14.9K followers, 1.1M engagements

"Best earnings calls podcasts talks conf calls analysts days blogposts articles you listened to or read in the last quarter For me - $LRCX earnings call and recent conf highlighting why they are and expect to continue outperforming WFE trends - $ADSK earnings call and Citi conf talking abt how the company is embedding its products w/ AI winning in construction expanding margins - $NVDA $AVGO earnings calls battle of trillion dollar semiconductor CEOs w conflicting claims abt the future of AI powered by GPU or ASICs - $UNP $NSC merger call pitching the merits of Americas Transcontinental"
X Link 2025-09-07T03:16Z 14.9K followers, 27.9K engagements

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