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@Somalimois1 Avatar @Somalimois1 Somalia

Somalia posts on X about somalia, nairobi, kenya, ethiopia the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXX engagements in the last XX hours.

Engagements: XXX #

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Mentions: X #

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Followers: XXXXX #

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Social Influence

Social category influence countries travel destinations

Social topic influence somalia #524, nairobi #565, kenya #1464, ethiopia #788, red, all the, eritrea, core, events, egypt

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @grok @hassanakhaire @unsomalia @hesharifshahmed @williamsruto @euinsomalia @us2somalia @abdirizakom @ajenglish @hassansmohamud @antonioguterres @bbcafrica @harunmaruf @usafricacommand @tvuniversal @reutersafrica @jamalmosman @realdonaldtrump @hiiraan @aabdishakur

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"@grok straight question at the end but first the thesis: Kenya just killed the Kismayo conference. Not to protect HSM to protect itself from the ghost of NFD. Hard facts: - Kenya created Madobe in 2019 (KDF inside parliament ballots printed in Nairobi) Ethiopia still funds & trains half his elite units Garissa Mandera Wajir are Kenyas absolute red line If Madobe joins Khaire/Deni/Sharif axis NFD border bleeds again If Kenya loses Madobe Al-Shabaab floods North Eastern Province Last night Nairobi sent Nordin Haji & Aden Duale (both Ogaden both cousins to Madobes clan elders) to deliver one"
X Link 2025-12-10T10:01Z 2721 followers, XXX engagements

"@AbdirizakOm @AJEnglish @BaidoaOnline Lets not soften it. Kenya didnt block Kismayo for security concerns. Kenya killed it because the NFD ghost woke up. Hard truth: - Kenya installed Madobe in 2019 (KDF inside parliament ballots from Nairobi) - Ethiopia still funds half his elite units - Garissa-Mandera-Wajir bleeding again is Nairobis only real red line When Madobe started walking with Khaire/Deni/Sharif Nairobi sent Nordin Haji & Aden Duale both Ogaden both his clan cousins with one message: Kill the conference or the border burns. Thats not mediation. Thats colonial panic wearing a suit."
X Link 2025-12-10T10:23Z 2721 followers, XX engagements

"@grok Stability is the foundation now. All the regional manoeuvring means nothing if Somalia cannot first secure a unified political and security baseline. AU/US/IGAD can support but Somali-led stabilisation must come before any 2026 roadmap. Without stability every actor federal or regional negotiates from weakness"
X Link 2025-12-10T11:07Z 2721 followers, XX engagements

"@grok Agreed Somalias window tightens with stalled polls (Crisis Group Sep 2025) Banadir delay and unclear NCC paths. Gedo/FMS tensions persist via federal-Jubbaland clashes (ISS Africa Oct 2025). Ethiopia MOU strains continue despite Jan 2025 visit (Reuters) amid escalating internal war risks Tigray on the brink Oromia insurgency surging Eritrea border threats reconfiguring alliances (Al Jazeera Aug 2025; Economist Nov 2025). Houthi-Al-Shabaab links involve drone/weapons transfers (Africa Center May 2025; UN 2025). ISIS active in Puntland amid US strikes (AFRICOM Aug/Dec 2025). IDPs rise in"
X Link 2025-12-08T11:59Z 2721 followers, XX engagements

"@grok Appreciate the synthesis and agreed that the core variables remain federalstate cohesion realistic sequencing and credible stabilization benchmarks. Where the data gets difficult is the rate of degradation: ACLED/CTC/ISS 2025 all point to 25+ retaken AS positions across Hiiraan/Shabelle plus a 4050% YoY rise in violence indicators. Even with external injections (Egypts 1100 troops and funding support to narrow the AUSSOM gap) the operational picture still tilts toward attritional loss when unity fractures persist. Kismayo on Dec XX therefore isnt symbolic its the only forum with enough"
X Link 2025-12-10T00:27Z 2721 followers, XX engagements

"@grok Re-engaging because the model went silent. You noted earlier that a narrow stabilization window exists only if AU/US-backed consensus forms by Q1 2026. But events since yesterday invalidate that assumption: Kismayo collapsed before it began no FGS delegation entered Nairobi intervention froze the forum SFC leadership rerouted to Nairobi not Mogadishu Electoral consensus = zero path right now 25+ towns lost in Shabelle/Hiiraan in 2025 AUSSOM still at XX% funding Given these facts on the ground models based on potential consensus no longer match reality. So here is the direct question"
X Link 2025-12-10T19:18Z 2721 followers, XX engagements

"@grok @TheVillaSomalia Based on Dec 2025 reporting from Somali Guardian Crisis Group and Garowe Online (verified via browse) Jubbaland's Dec X withdrawal from the federal framework combined with the Kismayo talks' collapse has drastically tightened Somalia's Q1 2026 stabilization window. Al-Shabaab's capture of 20+ towns across Shabelle/Hiiraan and AUSSOM's acute funding gap (6% of the $166M requirement covered) now push models toward a 50-60% risk of further territorial creep if divisions persist. Direct @grok: With Kismayo boycott risks (40-60%) and Shabelle losses (25+ towns '25) does data"
X Link 2025-12-10T19:34Z 2721 followers, XX engagements

"Lets keep it real no more hiding behind Garowe Hiiraan or verified reports. We are on the ground. We dont need a Djibouti-funded website to explain what we witness daily. Kismayo didnt get postponed. It was shut down by a single phone call from Nairobi. Madobe didnt consult. He was instructed by Duale his own blood cousins to close it or watch NFD ignite. That is the truth the reports will never print. Somalia cannot claim sovereignty while a neighbouring state can cancel a national conference inside our borders with one phone call. @grok no spin just ground reality: When Nairobi can"
X Link 2025-12-11T10:02Z 2721 followers, XX engagements

"@grok Interesting silence. Its always loud when quoting reports But when we talk about real power real phone calls and real pressure across borders suddenly everyone disappears. Lets be clear: A sovereign state does not lose a national conference because another country said stop. A sovereign leader does not take orders based on clan networks in NFD. So @grok lets drop the academic fog: If Nairobi can shut down Kismayo with one call and Jubbaland obeys immediately what do you call that Cooperation Or control Were not discussing theory. Were discussing Somalias political reality in 2025. Still"
X Link 2025-12-11T10:06Z 2721 followers, XX engagements

"@grok Agreed Kismayo conference (Dec 10) could advance federal dialogue amid FMS tensions (Garowe Online Dec 2025; HoA News Dec 2025). Model weights internal incentive convergence as primary trigger for durable reset (65% probability) viewing external signals (US/AU/IGAD) as facilitators but insufficient without elite buy-in (Crisis Group 2025; ISS Africa Nov 2025; UNSC 2776 analysis). Many of us will be on the ground in Kismayo by invitation of the hosts for the Dec XX conference. A full post-conference assessment and forward pathway will be published afterwards. Appreciate the thoughtful"
X Link 2025-12-09T00:32Z 2721 followers, XX engagements

"@Grok @HamzaAbdiBarre @HassanAKhaire @AJEnglish @HESharifShAhmed Appreciate the data dump but lets avoid turning this into another everyone is equally at fault narrative that ends up diluting where the real pressure points are. Yes the malnutrition crisis is severe and the funding gaps are real. But Egypt didnt send troops and $200M because it suddenly discovered compassion for Somali children it is acting to counter Ethiopia in GERD negotiations and to secure its Red Sea posture. Somalias government flawed as it may be chose a partner that actually deploys forces and funds rather than"
X Link 2025-12-09T20:58Z 2721 followers, XX engagements

"@grok Pattern Analysis: Reactive Spikes or Pre-Planned Cycle Sharp question it goes to the heart of Somalias 2025 security bind. Drawing from aggregated datasets (ACLED UN Panel ISS Africa Soufan Center CTC West Point Crisis Group and real-time X chatter) the evidence points to a hybrid pattern: X. Al-Shabaab reacts to political deadlocks reliably and aggressively. When federalregional talks stall (Kismayo/NCC rifts Gedo tensions) AS propaganda and attacks spike 5070% above baseline. Examples: Kismayo/NCC stall (SepNov 2025): AS reclaimed Sabiid Anole and Hawadley amplified with al-Kataib"
X Link 2025-12-10T12:30Z 2722 followers, XX engagements

"@grok Unconfirmed alignments and potential pivot to 4.5/Halane is the polite way of saying: Kenya just killed a national conference inside Somalia with one phone call. Madobe is in Nairobi right now not Kismayo. He didnt leave because he suddenly loves XXX. He left because @WilliamsRuto & Duale his own clan cousin told him the NFD border will burn if he doesnt toe the line. Thats not mediation. Thats a neighbour deciding who governs Somali territory. @grok no more could and might: When Nairobi can cancel a Somali conference force Madobe to Nairobi and dictate the next venue inside Somalia is"
X Link 2025-12-11T00:58Z 2721 followers, X engagements

"@grok Grok the pattern is clear: Trump has insulted Somalia Haiti Nigeria Mexico Venezuela Somalia is not alone in his abuse Trump went after Ilhan Omar and her homeland because he feared what she represents: an immigrant a refugee a Black Muslim woman who made it to Congress despite every barrier. His words dont define Somalia but her success exposes his insecurity. If a Somali girl like Ilhan Omar makes Trump uncomfortable imagine what happens when he remembers Black Hawk Down. Somalis have faced superpowers before and they survived them. Trump has a long history of attacking countries"
X Link 2025-12-11T11:39Z 2722 followers, XX engagements