@Sherlockwhale Avatar @Sherlockwhale Sherlock | DeFi Researcher

Sherlock | DeFi Researcher posts on X about bitcoin, cycle, market, gold the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance 100% cryptocurrencies #4961 stocks 6.82% financial services 2.27% technology brands 1.7% automotive brands 1.7% social networks 1.14% countries 1.14% travel destinations 1.14% currencies 0.57%

Social topic influence bitcoin #2125, cycle #1294, market 10.23%, gold 9.09%, liquidity #1443, crypto #2551, law #2014, if you 5.11%, $btcdom 5.11%, level 4.55%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @cachesensitive @digidollarsbtm @2023bitcoiner @bullsbytes @searchit001 @glendailh @kemingyu1 @buybitcoin_now_ @dogeromeo @duskxbt @chad48509828743 @rob66733000 @shakirhuss96018 @steve_burkett @lordhades @basedaf333 @ttullsta @n70digital @rajatsoni @tedlliott

Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) BlackRock Inc (BLK)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Bitcoin bear market drawdowns have a clear pattern: 2011: -93% 2015: -86% 2018: -84% 2022: -77% Every cycle the drawdown gets smaller as the market matures. Following this trend the [----] bottom should be around -70% from the $126K ATH. That puts us at $38K. Good luck buying your bottom at $69K $60K and $50K. Ill see you at $38K. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019394093797757314 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019394093797757314"
X Link 2026-02-05T12:54Z 12.1K followers, 1.4M engagements

"BTC/XAU ratio just closed the weekly candle below [-----] support. The last two times BTC lost the 15-16 zone on the Gold ratio the bear market started. It just broke again. The 15-16 zone on the Bitcoin/Gold ratio is the [----] cycle top. History on this level is clean. BTC/XAU broke above 15-16 in December [----]. The bull market followed running the ratio from [--] to [--]. It lost this level in June [----]. The bear market followed dropping $BTC from $30K to $15.5K. It reclaimed this level in Oct [----]. The bull market followed again running from $28K to $126K. Three for three. Every major cycle"
X Link 2026-02-09T12:57Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements

"because $500 billion market cap vs $2 trillion market cap bro. going from $20k to $69k is a 3.4x on a smaller base. going from $20k to $100k now requires way more capital inflow because the market cap is already massive. it's not about the dollar amount it's about percentage gains and the amount of money needed to move it. a $2T asset doing 10x requires $18T in new capital. where's that coming from in one cycle"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:27Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"Haha its not random at all. Bitcoins annualized return from each cycle bottom to the next cycle bottom has been compressing but still massively outperforms everything else. [----] bottom to [----] bottom was around 53% CAGR. [----] bottom to [----] bottom 117% CAGR. [----] bottom to [----] bottom 25% CAGR. see the trend its compressing toward 15-25% range not toward zero. why not 5-8% because that would put bitcoin below the nasdaqs long term average. an asset with a hard cap of 21M growing network effects increasing institutional adoption and sovereign interest doesnt settle below equities obv. it"
X Link 2026-02-15T03:09Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"@MadScrilla1 Models can be useful tools even if imperfect. But power law's usefulness is questionable when its bands are so wide you can't act on them"
X Link 2026-02-15T16:52Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements

"@BTCoptioneer interesting"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:30Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"There are only [--] completed Bitcoin cycles in existence. I used [--] of them (excluded the first because BTC was under $1 with zero market structure). So I am using 100% of the available data. If you need [--] data points to see a trend youll be waiting until [----]. Every model in crypto works with the same limited dataset. Stock to flow rainbow chart power law all of them. The sample size criticism applies to every BTC model ever made including whatever youre using to make your own calls. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022797574046933006 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022797574046933006"
X Link 2026-02-14T22:18Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"95% R just means it fit the past data really well. That's literally what overfitting looks like. The tighter the fit to historical data the worse it usually performs going forward - that's Stats [---]. S2F also had insane correlation until it didn't. High R on past data isn't predictive power it's just proof you drew a good line through old numbers"
X Link 2026-02-15T15:20Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"@crypto_barico wouldn't surprise me at all. If we break $48K"
X Link 2026-02-15T19:46Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"Do you know you can make more than $60K a month in crypto without taking directional risk or predicting price This is called funding arbitrage and institutions have been doing this for years. Every crypto exchange on perpetual futures pays funding rates every [--] hours to keep prices anchored to spot. When funding rate is positive longs pay shorts and when its negative shorts pay longs. You collect the funding fee by holding both sides. Lets say bitcoins funding rate is 0.08%. Buy $50K of BTC spot at $94000. Short $50K of BTC perpetual at $94000. If BTC drops to $90K you lose $4K on spot but"
X Link 2026-01-19T18:06Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements

"Your 3:1 RR trades with a 40% win rate will hit a -30% drawdown. Not maybe its actually guaranteed and statistically inevitable within [---] trades. Stop letting X convince you that winrate is irrelevant and 3:1 RR is all you need its the holy grail to win. No its not. The maximum drawdown your account will see is the only number that actually matters. Let me show you the math. 40% win rate means 60% of your trades lose. The probability of hitting [--] consecutive losses is: [-----] = 0.6%. Sounds rare right But over [---] trades statistically speaking its definitely happening. At 2% risk per trade"
X Link 2026-01-20T12:50Z 12.1K followers, 17.1K engagements

"Ive compiled every crypto index that exists all [--] of them including their description. This list doesnt exist anywhere else online. Some of these are absolute game changers for tracking capital rotation correlation with Bitcoin and altseason timing. Bookmark this and you can reference the specific ones when you need them. 1- MARKET CAP INDICES $TOTAL - Total market cap of top [---] cryptocurrencies. Entire crypto market health indicator and an alternative for BTC chart also. $TOTAL2 - Total market cap excluding BTC. Pure altcoin market size. $TOTAL3 - Total market cap excluding BTC and ETH."
X Link 2026-01-22T14:31Z 12.1K followers, 17.3K engagements

"The [-----] or [-----] Fib retracement on your 4H chart means nothing if the daily and weekly charts have no such confluence. Price doesnt care about your single timeframe. It cares about where three different groups of traders are all placing orders in the same zone. Thats the real confluence. Thats the difference between 51% and 84% winrate. Bookmark this. Youll need it next time you plot Fibs. Most traders plot Fibonacci on one timeframe theyll see [-----] or [-----] and enter watching price slice through it with no reaction. Remember that the daily chart has its [-----] at a completely different"
X Link 2026-01-24T12:59Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements

"Rising Funding + Falling OI = Retail Buying the Top from Whales. Every single time. Retail traders watch funding rate and thinks they understand the market sentiment. You see +0.08% funding and assume bullish. You see -0.02% and assume bearish sentiment. But in reality youre reading half the data. Funding rate shows what leverage side is paying. Open Interest shows if new positions are actually being opened. When you see a divergence between two it tells you exactly whos in control. Here are four different scenarios: OI Rising + Funding Rising = Retail FOMO Everyone piling into longs with"
X Link 2026-01-25T13:27Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements

"Your [--] trade backtest is statistically meaningless. Heres exactly how many trades you need before your winrate matters. Bookmark this. Youll need it next time someone shows you a proven system with [--] trades. Most traders these days backtest 40- [--] trades see a 65% winrate and think they have an edge. They dont. That sample size tells you absolutely nothing. Youre just looking at chart noise and calling it a signal. Statistically speaking any edge with 95% confidence would require specific minimum sample sizes based on your win rate: 50-55% winrate: 380+ trades 60-65% winrate: 360+ trades"
X Link 2026-01-27T13:20Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements

"Bitcoin is not digital gold. The [--] day correlation between Bitcoin and Gold just flipped to [-----] the most negative reading since March [----]. You remember March [----] Gold ripped 8%. Bitcoin got obliterated 38%. Looks the same playbook to me. Gold hits $5100 silver up 241% BTC down 13%. While boomers pile into actual havens (metals) if by any chance a macro crack happens here leveraged tradfi guys will be pulling out their margins. And they wont touch their gold theyll dump the liquid stuff. Theyll dump Bitcoin. But here is the catch. This divergence is historically bullish for Bitcoin just"
X Link 2026-01-29T13:05Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements

"Bitcoin has [--] hours before the bear market officially starts. USDT dominance is about to close above 6.7% for the first time in [---] years. This is the level that started the bull market when it broke down in October [----]. Every retest of this resistance marked Bitcoin bottoms: $38K $49K $75K. Each one triggered new all time highs for Bitcoin. Bitcoin has [--] day and [--] hours before the weekly candle closes above it. If it closes above were officially in a bear market. This is the most reliable macro indicator in crypto is about to flip bearish. This level has never been wrong."
X Link 2026-01-31T12:47Z 12.1K followers, 74.2K engagements

"$85000 is about to become Bitcoins biggest resistance for the next [--] months. Everyone who bought between $85K-$108K over the past [--] months is underwater. Thats overhead supply. Trapped longs. When price rallies back to $85K all those underwater will holders get their first chance to breakeven. Most will sell immediately. This will create sell pressure at every rally attempt. Heres what makes this different from normal resistance: The volume at $85K-$95K was massive. Over $120 billion in spot volume traded in that range during October-December [----]. Thats not a thin resistance zone. Thats"
X Link 2026-02-01T14:15Z 12.1K followers, 39.8K engagements

"Bitcoin crashed 15% in [--] hours after Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. But this wasnt just a crypto crash. It was mainly a dollar liquidity event. Bitcoin dropped from $88K to $81K overnight as soon as the rumours started circulating about Warshs nomination. When Trump officially nominated him on Friday morning January [--] Bitcoin was already down 8%. Over the next [--] hours it fell another 8% to $75K. Gold crashed from Thursdays record $5600 to $4600. Silver collapsed from $120 to $81. Fundamentally this was just about Fed policy expectations. But technically speaking it"
X Link 2026-02-02T13:42Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements

"Bitcoin is going lower. A lot lower. Short the bounce to $85K - $95K and ride it to $50K. This is the big short Ive been waiting for since $108K. $85K - $95K is about to become the biggest resistance Bitcoin has seen in this entire cycle. [------] BTC in institutional supply is sitting at $85K-$95K from October - December accumulation. Those positions are underwater and waiting to exit. When we bounce back to $85K youll see the start of largest distribution event of [----]. Add to that 1D QVWAP resistance yearly open Januarys POC acting as ceiling. Every single dynamic technical resistance is"
X Link 2026-02-03T12:46Z 12.1K followers, 92.2K engagements

"$39K - $43K is the bottom. I'm calling it now while Bitcoin is at $75K. Save this tweet. We'll see who was right"
X Link 2026-02-04T14:15Z 12.1K followers, 57.2K engagements

"Stop celebrating calling $60K the bottom for Bitcoin. Were nowhere near the real bottom. Bitcoins Realized Price (average cost basis of all holders) right now is $55244. Current price of $70K is 27% above the average holders cost basis. 1- In [----] BTC bottomed at $15476 which was 34% below Realized Price of $23340. 2- In [----] BTC bottomed at $3200 which was 47% below Realized Price. 3- The same pattern repeated in [----]. The rule is simple. Bear markets dont bottom above the Realized Price. They bottom 30-50% below it. If history repeats 30% below $55K gives us $38500. Thats exactly what my"
X Link 2026-02-07T12:57Z 12.1K followers, 128.1K engagements

"Screenshot this for summer 2026: Bitcoin under $40K Ethereum under $1000 Solana under $30 Thats where Im buying not at these clown prices. All those buying right now are the exit liquidity"
X Link 2026-02-08T13:04Z 12.1K followers, 99.2K engagements

"Bitcoin will bottom in October [----] between $37000 - $43000. I have analysed [----] days of price data across [--] complete cycles. Every Bitcoin bear market lasts almost [---] days. 1- [----] top to [----] bottom: [---] days 2- [----] top to [----] bottom: [---] days 3- [----] top to bottom: Day [---] of [---] I used five completely independent timing methods and surprisingly they all point to the same month and that is October [----]. We're not even halfway through this decline. Sell now and buy in October again. Screenshot this. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021204901892677720"
X Link 2026-02-10T12:49Z 12.1K followers, 153.2K engagements

"direction and price prediction are two different things. Yeah maybe BTC wins long term as a store of value. That doesn't mean power law works. "Number go up eventually" isn't a model it's just belief. My whole point is these charts pretend to know when and how much when they don't. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023045130526343617 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023045130526343617"
X Link 2026-02-15T14:42Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"yup It's dressed up as "science" to sell hopium to people who don't know what a log-log chart actually does. The fancy name makes it sound legit when it's really just curve fitting with zero predictive power. Perfect bait for people who want guarantees in a market that gives none. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023046287508299894 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023046287508299894"
X Link 2026-02-15T14:46Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"AI agents buying BTC is the new "institutions are coming" cope. Same energy as "once countries adopt it" or "wait until the ETFs." They need a new catalyst every cycle to justify why this time will be different. It's always something inevitable just around the corner that never actually materializes the way they promise. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023076989394121086 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023076989394121086"
X Link 2026-02-15T16:48Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"no sngle model. BTC's a macro asset now you need to look at actual capital flows (ETF inflows/outflows exchange reserves) real rates and DXY strength liquidity conditions (Fed balance sheet M2 growth) and on-chain metrics like realized cap and MVRV. Combine those with basic TA for timing. Models that ignore fundamentals and just extrapolate time are useless. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023078105586475011 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023078105586475011"
X Link 2026-02-15T16:53Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"@DuskXBT A ange that spans 10x ($48K to $491K) isn't a prediction it's a safety net so wide you can never be wrong. The model said fair value was $210K in January [----] and we're at $70K that's a 67% miss. Saying "but it's still in the range"
X Link 2026-02-15T19:43Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"bad analogy. Redwoods have biological growth mechanisms cellular division photosynthesis predictable maturation curves. BTC has market participants with changing incentives liquidity cycles and competition. One is governed by physics and biology the other by human psychology and capital flows. "Scale invariance" doesn't make something a law of nature - it just means the chart looks smooth on certain timescales https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023122777432277418 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023122777432277418"
X Link 2026-02-15T19:50Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"That's the whole problem. Time-based models ignore that BTC is now competing for capital allocation in portfolios. When liquidity dries up when real rates spike when risk-off hits time doesn't matter. The model treats BTC like it exists in a vacuum when really it trades like a leveraged tech bet now. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023122971175567621 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023122971175567621"
X Link 2026-02-15T19:51Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"@DuskXBT the bands are so wide that staying inside them means almost nothing. The model can be "right" whether we're at $52K or $491K. Past performance within massive bands doesn't validate future predictive power. S2F also "worked" until it didn't"
X Link 2026-02-15T19:56Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"Scale invariance is not unique to Bitcoin. It is a very common property of complex systems. The real question is not whether Bitcoin shows scale invariance. It does. The question is whether showing scale invariance makes a model predictive. It does not simple. The S&P [---] shows scale invariance too. Nobody uses that fact to predict the S&P will hit [-----] by next Tuesday lol. And btw gold returns city populations network growth earthquake magnitudes. All show scale invariance across several orders of magnitude. This is not rare. It is one of the most common properties in complex systems. So"
X Link 2026-02-16T01:04Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"$BTCDOM UPDATE As explained in the update yesterday $BTCDOM has a descending trendline with breakout expected soon. Now that the breakout is happening target is around $4100 level we will be focusing on short positions only meanwhile. $BTCDOM UPDATE $BTCDOM forming a descending trendline expecting a move towards $4100 level. We are slowly approaching the end of month period Im not in rush to take any positions especially in this situation where things are not going anywhere. But if this breakout happens https://t.co/awqT5BTwxT $BTCDOM UPDATE $BTCDOM forming a descending trendline expecting a"
X Link 2025-08-29T09:45Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements

"$OTHERS UPDATE Though $BTCDOM is currently sitting at support $OTHERS just gave the deviation retest we talked about yesterday. This bullish retest at support is usually a powerful long signal. So unlike many out there Im not super bearish on altcoins right now. For alts that closed their daily candles below key resistances after the liquidation event yes that could be a bearish signal. But for the majority this structure looks more like a deviation retest rather than a clean breakdown. Unless we see a daily close below support this remains a good setup. This same structure is visible across"
X Link 2025-10-14T13:58Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements

"$BTCDOM UPDATE The daily bias in terms of altcoins still remains in neutral to slightly bearish zone and I would not suggest randomly going long here. For an altcoin recovery you would not just bitcoin to go up here but also for $BTCDOM to break below this newly reclaimed support zone at $4600 - $4500 level as the situation has changed alot during the last [--] hours with dominance flipping this level. Nevertheless as I mentioned in update yesterday altcoins have largerly remained stable mainly due to the strength on $OTHERSBTC chart. So unless you see a break below $4550 (a 4H close will be"
X Link 2025-11-05T08:49Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements

"$BTCDOM UPDATE This ascending trendline may come into play at some point in time in near future which will be bullish for altcoins ofcourse. But for now the index is sitting at $4400 - $4350 support. A 4H close below this level will be a confirmation of trendline and support break and a signal to go long on altcoins. Unless anything like this happens considering that bitcoin dominance is at support I would not want to take risk with any altcoin longs here. So the bias for today remains largerly neutral and if the index gives a bullish 4H close on this support then expect a small pullback on"
X Link 2025-11-10T11:41Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements

"$BTCDOM UPDATE $BTCDOM is back above the $4690 resistance after giving a small deviation retest and rejection below this level last few days. We did see the daily close above this level last time too which resulted in a deviation and if this candle just like the last time goes back under this level then there is no need to be bearish. But if we see one more daily close above $4690 which we havent seen in a long long time then its a confirmed retest and well position into shorts accordingly. Meanwhile its best to focus on shitcoin plays that care less about whats happening with $BTCDOM or $BTC"
X Link 2025-12-26T15:59Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements

"$BTCDOM UPDATE Still not a good idea if you are looking to go long on alts as $BTCDOM is far from resistance. Id like to atleast see $4590 level being retested before we even start thinking about taking any long positions. Price has moved in this range for almost [---] months and has proved to be an absolute amazing way to catch tops and bottoms on alts. Youd reach the same conclusion if you look at the $OTHERS.D or $TOTAL3 that both got rejected at big daily resistances and still far from support. So an ideal case scenario would be one in which $BTCDOM hits $4595 resistance with both $TOTAL3"
X Link 2026-01-08T10:51Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements

"$OTHERS.D UPDATE - January [--] [----] $OTHERS.D is trading at a major daily resistance with a clear ascending trendline in formation and if we see a break below you can expect $BTCDOM to go much higher than expected. The ideal case scenario for longs is a reclaim of daily resistance with a 1D close above 7.22% or a retest of 6.77% support which is not happening anytime soon. As the index continues to consolidate at the resistance the focus should be on shorts and I always talk about how everyone should pay attention to these ascending trendline. Just before the October [--] crash we had a similar"
X Link 2026-01-12T16:39Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements

"$BTCDOM UPDATE $BTCDOM almost back at the resistance and Jan [--] levels the first [--] weeks of some nice gains in the altcoin market mainly happened as a result of rejection at this resistance on the $BTCDOM chart. So yes starting to have a short term bullish bias for the altcoin market now. Would be worth catching a few longs on breakouts mostly. $BTCDOM UPDATE Still not a good idea if you are looking to go long on alts as $BTCDOM is far from resistance. Id like to atleast see $4590 level being retested before we even start thinking about taking any long positions. Price has moved in this range"
X Link 2026-01-13T14:52Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements

"$ICNT LONG Shared in @FOXIANORG Yesterday Another W 🔥 Focus on $BTCDOM to understand the rotation into altcoins. @forbinsdog I am long on $ICNT https://t.co/te8Py3bRRH @forbinsdog I am long on $ICNT https://t.co/te8Py3bRRH"
X Link 2026-01-14T10:03Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements

"If Bitcoin doesn't close above $94K this week we're all doomed"
X Link 2026-01-15T18:25Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements

"Open Interest tells you positions are opening. But open Interest Delta tells you who is opening them. Here's the metric almost nobody tracks. Bookmark this and you can save yourself from fake breakouts. Open Interest Delta = Change in OI + Price direction 1- OI rising + Price rising = New longs entering (Bullish Continuation) 2- OI rising + Price falling = New shorts entering (Bearish Continuation) 3- OI falling + Price rising = Shorts covering (Short Squeeze No Real Demand) 4- OI falling + Price falling = Longs closing (Long Liquidation No Real Selling) The secret that most people miss is"
X Link 2026-01-18T13:17Z 11.9K followers, 26.2K engagements

"@thomij98 The top was definitely euphoric enough. $126K was 3x from the lows. Institutions were euphoric. Now they're all trapped"
X Link 2026-02-05T13:35Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements

"@cryptocoinlogy 15K was the last cycle's drama. Institutions don't let go that hard anymore"
X Link 2026-02-05T14:20Z 11.4K followers, 47.5K engagements

"@LibertyBTC We dont need WW3. We just need time. Bear markets grind below Realized Price slowly. $60s are being sold right now. $50s are next"
X Link 2026-02-07T17:11Z 11.9K followers, [---] engagements

"@anualguy24 Agreed. But there's no blood yet. Wait for actual capitulation"
X Link 2026-02-07T21:59Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements

"@JamesAB999 Maturity means slower moves not elimination of cycles. We're still going to test Realized Price"
X Link 2026-02-07T22:10Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements

"@shahmaul The cup you're looking at took [--] years to form. You don't really need a blowoff top to have a bear market. [----] had no blowoff. Still dropped 85%"
X Link 2026-02-08T00:16Z 11.4K followers, [--] engagements

"@Flyintiger3 MicroStrategy bought the [----] top at $30K. They didn't defend $20K. Institutions capitulate same as retail"
X Link 2026-02-08T00:18Z 11.4K followers, [--] engagements

"@2023bitcoiner [----] top depends on M2 expansion. If Fed balance sheet doubles again $200-250K"
X Link 2026-02-08T00:20Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"@2023bitcoiner [----] top depends on M2 expansion. If Fed balance sheet doubles again $200-250K"
X Link 2026-02-08T00:21Z 12K followers, [--] engagements

"@bsfarmdog The reason is there is no reason. That's what makes it worse. It's a structural bear market"
X Link 2026-02-08T00:23Z 11.4K followers, [--] engagements

"@LitixGuy Your chart shows bounces not recoveries. [----] had three 20% bounces before $15K. [----] had four. Each one killed bulls who thought 'recovery' started"
X Link 2026-02-08T00:36Z 11.8K followers, [---] engagements

"@lordhades MicroStrategy been around since [----] and we still dropped 77% in [----] my guy"
X Link 2026-02-08T12:38Z 11.8K followers, [--] engagements

"@BigHeadTheories what if maturing markets means we finally do break it"
X Link 2026-02-08T12:46Z 11.6K followers, [--] engagements

"@enpyretos Dont forget to check my latest tweets also :) BULL RUN IS OVER BULL RUN IS OVER"
X Link 2026-02-08T13:24Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"@shwivl nothing is crazy in a bear market mate wait till you see it at $15"
X Link 2026-02-08T17:23Z 11.8K followers, [---] engagements

"@walter_est3672 patience pays see you under $40K"
X Link 2026-02-08T19:40Z 11.8K followers, [---] engagements

"@AM_THE_CPI_ATM same energy no point buying now when $30 coming"
X Link 2026-02-08T19:41Z 11.7K followers, [--] engagements

"@walter_est3672 Same mindset just preparing mentally and financially for it"
X Link 2026-02-09T08:23Z 11.8K followers, [--] engagements

"@CryptoA12552 hedging is the move if you're not convinced enough to exit"
X Link 2026-02-09T14:14Z 11.9K followers, [---] engagements

"@D3LTA_0 NPCs bought the dip at $70K 😂"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:20Z 11.9K followers, [---] engagements

"@esp_hansen No I am talking about October timeline. And top to bottom count is just one method I mentioned. Used for other completely different methods and they are all pointing at the same month"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:24Z 11.9K followers, [---] engagements

"@mrc_nnz Past performance doesnt predict cool so you also ignore support resistance and every chart pattern ever drawn Thats literally what TA is"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:26Z 11.9K followers, [---] engagements

"@NMNJBS_DFV Close enough that were probably looking at the same thing. What method are you using"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:08Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements

"@byron2924 we'll see who's lol'ing in oct [----] my guy"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:08Z 11.9K followers, [---] engagements

"@BasedAF333 [--] years means you've seen enough cycles to know this one looks identical so far"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:09Z 11.9K followers, [--] engagements

"@gamo__1 But still I believe equities may continue to run till Dec 2026"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:40Z 11.9K followers, [--] engagements

"@OutSideDaBox_ 196K is my prediction for the next cycle top. It returns are basically diminishing every single cycle which is good long term"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:42Z 11.9K followers, [--] engagements

"@BasedAF333 We did have institutions during the last cycle as well microstrategy and grayscale you name it"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:43Z 11.9K followers, [--] engagements

"@mza17 wrong person bro my prediction been oct 2026"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:14Z 11.9K followers, [--] engagements

"@DrunkrThnJunckr lmao diamond hands energy. just saying you could sell now rebuy 40% cheaper oct [----] and have way more sats"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:23Z 11.9K followers, [--] engagements

"@TaupakiTuataras possible relief rally to 70-85k to trap people but 100k seems high. bear markets love fake outs before continuing down"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:25Z 11.9K followers, [---] engagements

"@Ttullsta nostradamus wishes he had [----] days of data. this is science not mysticism g"
X Link 2026-02-10T20:27Z 11.9K followers, [--] engagements

"@StockStormX alts follow bitcoin hey follow btc's lead just delayed and more extreme. same cycle different timing"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:03Z 11.9K followers, [---] engagements

"@Bhunter_1 once a pattern becomes obvious enough smart money fades it"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:05Z 11.9K followers, [---] engagements

"@reinventideal markets price in policy changes. new admin = optimism and liquidity. midterms = gridlock fear and tightening"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:18Z 11.9K followers, [---] engagements

"@Bhunter_1 retail uses these patterns to trade becomes self fulfilling prophecy for a while then smart money front runs it"
X Link 2026-02-12T11:05Z 12K followers, [--] engagements

"@BullsBytes fed policy literally adjusts around election cycles"
X Link 2026-02-12T11:15Z 12K followers, [--] engagements

"@Zoe_104 spot on. 200-300% in any other asset class would be front page news. in crypto its "disappointing." says a lot about the mindset"
X Link 2026-02-14T13:11Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"@gorblck it acts as a leveraged proxy yes. but leverage works both ways. if BTC drops another 20% from here MSTR drops 40%. know what you're getting into"
X Link 2026-02-14T13:11Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"@he_who_fails well called. the next cycle will be the real test. if the top lands between $150-180K the pattern is confirmed beyond any doubt"
X Link 2026-02-14T13:34Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"@Chad48509828743 less sell pressure just means slower dumps not 10x pumps"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:52Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"@flyingfishandy demand from where we've had institutions for [--] years now"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:52Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"problem is most of the world can't afford even [---] BTC at current prices let alone [--] whole coin. saying '1M per BTC is reasonable because only 15M can own one' assumes demand from people who literally don't have the capital. median global wealth is like $8k. you'd need massive wealth redistribution or hyperinflation for millions of people to suddenly afford $1M per coin. plus most BTC is already concentrated top 1% of addresses hold like 90% of supply. scarcity alone doesn't create 10x gains you need actual buyers with actual capital"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:27Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"People can buy $50 of bitcoin yes. but $50 buys dont move a $1.3 trillion market cap. to take BTC from $68K to $1M you need roughly $18 trillion in new capital. thats not coming from people buying $50 at a time. A million people buying $50 adds $50M to the market. that moves the price by 0.003%. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022869028071416163 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022869028071416163"
X Link 2026-02-15T03:02Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"As a CFA Rajat you would know large cap stocks never give returns like microcaps. Apple at $3T will never 100x again. Not because Apple is bad. Because the math of large numbers makes it impossible. Bitcoin at $70K with $1.4T market cap needing $14T to 10x from a cycle low is just basic maths and "Never" is the only honest word here imo. Amazon will never trade at $0.10 again. Gold will never do a 100x in a decade again this is just reality. You tell me how many DCF models you built that did not say never implicitly When you assign a terminal growth rate of 3% you're saying this company will"
X Link 2026-02-15T04:24Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"What's your threshold then [--] cycles [--] Bitcoin has existed for [--] years. There are only [--] usable cycles. Every model in crypto uses the same [--] data points. You either work with the data that exists or you make no calls at all. And if you're making no calls you're not analysing you're just ranting about stuff. And what exactly is your alternative Wait until [----] for [--] cycles Or just assume 10x forever because it feels better Take a break I have studied statistics for last [--] years you don't dismiss a trend because n is small. You dismiss it when the variance is high or the mechanism is"
X Link 2026-02-15T04:30Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"@N70Digital people gotta accept BTC is graduating from speculative moonshot to legitimate wealth preservation tool. yeah it's less exciting than 100x dreams but way more sustainable"
X Link 2026-02-15T12:09Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"show me the [----] chart calling for no more 10x with the same three-cycle data trend i'm showing. [----] was only TWO cycles of data and the market cap was way smaller. now we have THREE cycles of clear 1/5th to 1/3rd compression AND 95% of supply mined. the conditions are fundamentally different https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023007376753008822 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023007376753008822"
X Link 2026-02-15T12:11Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"@KeMingYu1 @Rajatsoni saying 'just wait longer' changes the entire thesis bro. my thread is about cycle gains not decade-long holds. if your argument is 'just wait 10-15 years and you'll 10x' then sure maybe. but that's not what people are betting on when they expect $500k by 2029"
X Link 2026-02-15T12:13Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"@Rocketmann2019 when everyone capitulates on big gains and expects diminishing returns that's when the next moonshot comes. but rn most people are STILL ultra bullish calling for $500k-$1M not accepting reality"
X Link 2026-02-15T12:18Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"@serJanitor supply shock without demand is just scarcity sitting there doing nothing. we already cut from [---] BTC/day to [---] to [---] - the halvings happened. but if demand doesn't accelerate proportionally price doesn't explode like early cycles"
X Link 2026-02-15T12:22Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"XRP flipping BTC is pure delusion bro. XRP's entire value prop is regulatory speculation and bank partnerships that may never materialize at scale. BTC is decentralized hard money with actual adoption institutional flows nation-state reserves and a 16-year track record. XRP pumps on Ripple court news then dumps - that's not sustainable growth. calling BTC 'pedo coin' is unhinged and doesn't make XRP fundamentally stronger https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023010253542240611 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023010253542240611"
X Link 2026-02-15T12:23Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"@undersea hyperbitcoinization is decades away if it happens at all bro. most of the world can't even self-custody or afford meaningful BTC at these prices"
X Link 2026-02-15T12:29Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"@Sepr8MoneyState USD is obviously debasing long-term. but even if fiat loses 50% purchasing power over next decade that just means BTC needs to 2x in nominal terms to break even in real terms. my $155k-$190k targets are in nominal USD"
X Link 2026-02-15T12:32Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"i never said diminishing returns will continue forever in a straight line - eventually BTC stabilizes and just tracks global liquidity inflation and adoption at a steady rate. but for the NEXT few cycles (2025-2035) yeah the trend of smaller percentage gains probably continues until it flattens out completely. at some point BTC just becomes digital gold doing 5-10% annually but we're not there yet. still another few cycles of compression before it fully matures into stable-ish appreciation https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023012958415319247 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023012958415319247"
X Link 2026-02-15T12:34Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"institutions ARE already involved bro - BlackRock ETF launched over a year ago Fidelity is in MicroStrategy has been buying since [----] pension funds can now allocate. that wave already happened and drove us from $15k to $108k. so either we're currently seeing the institutional adoption play out (with diminishing returns) or you're saying there's an even BIGGER institutional wave coming. which institutions specifically are left to enter that are bigger than what's already in https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023013244571644039 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023013244571644039"
X Link 2026-02-15T12:35Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"if moderate adoption can still generate decent returns we're saying the same thing - my $155k-$190k targets ARE decent returns (3-4x from lows). but 'decent' isn't the 10-20x people are expecting. moderate adoption over years creates steady appreciation not explosive cycles. and yeah it takes time for institutions to fully allocate - which is exactly why i'm saying this plays out over decades not one cycle. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023013658285019628 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023013658285019628"
X Link 2026-02-15T12:36Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"so you're saying if we drop to $50k and run to $180k that's still a 3.6x which is solid and you're fine with that. we're literally saying the exact same thing then bro. my whole thread is that 3-4x is the realistic expectation not 10-20x. if you're aligned with that and not chasing $500k hopium then we have no disagreement. appreciate you getting it https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023014047931904218 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023014047931904218"
X Link 2026-02-15T12:38Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"@Bitcoinoclast gold took decades to go from $5T to $10T and it's the oldest store of value in human history with zero competition. BTC doubling from $2T to $4T is possible over multiple cycles sure"
X Link 2026-02-15T12:39Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"yeah liquidity matters but so does the base size. 2020-2021 we had PEAK liquidity - zero rates unlimited QE stimmies everything pumping - and BTC still only did 714% vs 2110% prior cycle. so even with maximum liquidity the market cap barrier compressed gains. next liquidity wave would need to be even BIGGER than 2020-2021 to overcome the fact that we're starting from $2T now instead of $200B. where's that extra liquidity coming from that's 10x larger than what we already saw https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023014448462754109 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023014448462754109"
X Link 2026-02-15T12:40Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"exactly bro. going from $20B to $200B market cap (10x) needs $180B. going from $2T to $20T (10x) needs $18 TRILLION in new capital. the absolute dollar amounts required get exponentially harder even if the percentage is the same. people don't grasp that moving a $2T asset is fundamentally different than moving a $20B asset. this is why diminishing returns are structural not just a trend that might reverse https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023014605422018645 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023014605422018645"
X Link 2026-02-15T12:40Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"bhutan and El Salvador are tiny players - El Salvador bought like [----] BTC total Bhutan has maybe [-----]. they're not moving a $2T market. and yeah more countries might add BTC to reserves but it'll be slow 1-2% allocations over years not massive buying waves. even if [--] countries did what El Salvador did that's still only like [-----] BTC total demand. we need TRILLIONS in sustained inflows for 10x not small nation-state experiments. these moves are symbolically bullish but not enough capital to override diminishing returns. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023015051846963261"
X Link 2026-02-15T12:42Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"@cachesensitive appreciate the thoughtful response bro. you're right that my analysis is based on historical patterns which can break and yeah market psychology + liquidity could create surprises. but i need actual reasons WHY this cycle breaks the pattern beyond just 'patterns eventually fail"
X Link 2026-02-15T12:44Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"people have been wrong before but they weren't showing three consecutive cycles of 1/5th to 1/3rd compression with 95% of supply already mined. the skeptics in [----] didn't have this data. i'm not saying BTC is dead i'm saying 10x cycles are done. if you think i'm wrong show me the actual mechanism for another 10x instead of just 'people doubted before and were wrong' https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023015859678281806 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023015859678281806"
X Link 2026-02-15T12:45Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"still waiting on you to name these mandates. "Finalized since 2024" means nothing without specifics. NIST's post-quantum crypto standards exist but they don't ban Bitcoin or force institutions to sell. You're making huge claims with zero sources. If these mandates were real and forcing sales we'd see actual evidence beyond "trust me bro." https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023047917322514595 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023047917322514595"
X Link 2026-02-15T14:53Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"you listed a bunch of mandates that apply to government systems and critical infrastructure not to Bitcoin holders. Financial institutions can hold BTC and still comply - the mandates are about their internal systems not about dumping crypto. You're conflating "fed systems need quantum-resistant encryption" with "institutions must sell BTC." Those aren't the same thing at all https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023053612465995919 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023053612465995919"
X Link 2026-02-15T15:15Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"yeah they interact with federal systems using quantum-resistant encryption for those transactions. That doesn't mean they have to sell their Bitcoin holdings. BlackRock's custody infrastructure and their BTC holdings are separate things. You're still not explaining how "use PQC for federal comms" translates to "dump all crypto." Show me the line that says institutions must divest. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023076459825525131 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023076459825525131"
X Link 2026-02-15T16:46Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"@eira74476 Exactly but remember the bottom process starts way before October. The actual wick might be Oct but the accumulation zone is Jun-Sep. Don't try to knife catch the exact date just be positioned before it"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:50Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"@duran_bree81360 based on cycle timing late [----] or early [----]. the bottom needs to form first around Oct [----] then roughly 1050-1060 days of bull market from there"
X Link 2026-02-14T13:33Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"@2023bitcoiner it wont get stuck. it will just start behaving like gold. slow steady appreciation maybe 10-15% a year. less exciting but still a store of value"
X Link 2026-02-14T13:33Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"Institutions said the same thing in [----]. MicroStrategy Grayscale futures ETFs were all there. BTC still dropped 77%. now we have spot ETFs corporate treasuries and a strategic reserve. BTC dropped 50% so far. ETFs pulled in billions yes. they also pulled out $3B in January alone. institutions don't hold through drawdowns for ideology. they hold for returns. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022672854089715896 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022672854089715896"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:02Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"@jack3394 money printing creates higher floors not higher percentage returns. BTC bottoming at $40K instead of $3K is the money printing effect. but the 3-4x from bottom to top is the diminishing returns effect. both are happening at the same time"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:03Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"@Searchit001 I wouldn't go that far. bitcoin dying would require the network to stop functioning. hash rate is at an all time high. the network has never been more secure. it's not dying. it's just becoming less exciting"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:04Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"@BTCoptioneer You're making a good point about CAGR. that's probably the right framework going forward. 20-30% CAGR over the next decade with less violent swings. the cycle may fade but I think we need one more to confirm it's actually dead. this one is playing out exactly on schedule"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:29Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements

"@Yield_Strat SP500 does 10% annualised. if bitcoin settles at 20-25% annualised thats still 2-2.5x better. the comparison to SP500 actually makes bitcoin look excellent. just not 100x excellent"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:31Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"@R3KTCrissyX top-to-top: [----] days then [----] days. bear market duration: [---] days then [---] days. drawdowns: -87% -84% -77%. nothing repeats except everything"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:34Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"@DapiwhyDpy he's right about the design. bitcoin is deflationary by code. but deflationary doesn't mean exponential forever. gold is scarce too. it still only does 7-8% a year. scarcity sets a floor. it doesn't guarantee 10x cycles indefinitely"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:35Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"@tedlliott bro i'm saying cycles are WEAKENING that's my whole point. and yeah hyperbitcoinization is cope i agree. i'm just saying don't expect another 10x not that BTC will replace fiat"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:50Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements

"@DigiDollarsBTM bro if it takes [--] years for 10x that's not a cycle anymore that's just slow growth"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:53Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"Exactly my point we're at 95.18% mined and people are still talking about supply shocks like it's [----]. The supply shock already happened. We hit [--] million coins in [--] days and suddenly the halving narrative is supposed to drive another 10x The math doesn't support it. When we went from 50% mined to 75% mined yeah halvings mattered because they were cutting significant new supply. Now we're cutting from 1.7% annual inflation to 0.85%. That's not enough to create the scarcity-driven explosions we saw in early cycles. The diminishing returns I'm describing aren't a bug they're a feature of the"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:15Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"Bro where we've had institutions for [--] years now. BlackRock launched an ETF MicroStrategy has been stacking since [----] we have sovereign wealth funds dipping in. what's the actual new demand source you're pointing to saying 'demand shock will shock you' without identifying where it comes from is just hopium. i'm looking at the supply math showing 95%+ mined and three cycles of diminishing returns. if you've got a thesis on where massive new demand enters i'm genuinely curious but right now the trend is crystal clear. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022706587408961715"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:16Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"Bitcoin purpose and its price action are two different things. i'm not saying BTC's only value is trading - it's still the hardest money ever created best store of value censorship resistant all that. but AS a trading vehicle for this next cycle yeah returns are compressing. that doesn't kill bitcoin it just means it transitions from high-growth speculative asset to mature store of value https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022708003481489745 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022708003481489745"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:22Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"exactly bro this is literally my whole point. people think i'm bearish but i'm just being realistic. a 3-5x from cycle lows over 3-4 years is still insane compared to stocks bonds real estate literally anything else. bitcoin isn't dying it's just graduating from speculative moonshot to legitimate asymmetric bet. the people mad at my take are the ones who got sold on $1M bitcoin by [----] and can't accept that 300-500% is actually incredible returns for a maturing $2T asset. we agree completely. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022708598900691356"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:24Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements

"timing bottoms and selling tops can definitely beat the base case i agree. but that's execution not the asset doing 10x. my tweet is about what BTC does low to high on average. if you're skilled enough to catch exact bottoms and tops you can amplify that but most people aren't so i'm giving the realistic expectation for the asset itself https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022708887686910037 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022708887686910037"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:25Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements

"FTX collapsed in Nov [----] after we already peaked at $69k in Nov [----] so that didn't rug the cycle top. Luna/Celsius were mid-2022 bear market. and saying we 'should've' hit $100k doesn't change the math - we peaked at $69k which was 714% from the bottom. that's the data point. on institutional adoption - BlackRock Fidelity everyone's already in via ETFs. what does 'mass institutional adoption' look like beyond what we have now https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022709789982363998 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022709789982363998"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:29Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"BTC will keep going up long-term just at a slower rate each cycle. going from $50k to $150k is still a 3x which is incredible for a $2T asset. people are mad because they wanted another 10-20x like early cycles but that's just not realistic anymore. price will keep rising returns will keep compressing. both can be true. we're on the same page bro https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022710509590737022 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022710509590737022"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:32Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"@crypto_barico if you want another big multiplier you need a lower entry. people mad at my take don't realize i'm literally describing the OPPORTUNITY"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:35Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"CAGR is a fair way to look at it long-term but doesn't change the cycle dynamics i'm describing. yeah 20-30% annualized over [--] years gets you to similar numbers but my point is specifically about CYCLE gains - the [--] year bottom to top moves are compressing. you can still get great returns holding through multiple cycles i'm just saying don't expect another 10x in one cycle like [----] or even a 5x like [----]. spreading expectations over [--] years actually proves my point - the explosive single-cycle gains are done"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:04Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"choppy is the right word. less parabolic cycles more grinding volatility with an upward bias over years. the gold market cap thesis ($15-16T) is still in play but that's a decade+ journey not one cycle. if we get there it'd be like a 7-8x from here spread over multiple cycles with plenty of drawdowns along the way. people expecting smooth sailing to $500k are in for a rude awakening but patient holders will probably do fine long-term https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022718880414863497 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022718880414863497"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:05Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"i'm assuming we drop to $37k-$50k first then 200-300% from there puts us at $111k-$200k. so new ATH is still in range. if we don't drop that low and bottom around $75k-$80k instead then yeah 200-300% gets us higher. either way the point stands we're not doing another 10x from cycle lows like early cycles https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022719649100771479 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022719649100771479"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:08Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements

"@Chad48509828743 diamond hands reduce volatility and put a floor under price but you still need massive NEW buying to push a $2T asset up 5-10x. if everyone just holds and nobody sells price stays flat unless fresh capital comes in"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:09Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"rate cuts will help for sure but they're not a magic bullet for 10x gains anymore. 2020-2021 we had zero rates unlimited QE stimmies peak liquidity and BTC still only did 714% that cycle vs 2110% the cycle before. so yeah liquidity helps but it can't override the market cap and supply dynamics. we could absolutely get a nice pump when Fed cuts i'm just saying don't expect it to replicate [----] gains even with maximum liquidity. the base has gotten too big https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022720521356611646 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022720521356611646"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:12Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"@MumuTrader BTC just won't do the insane 2000%+ gains anymore. it's transitioning from moonshot to best-in-class asymmetric bet. still way better returns than traditional assets just not life-changing 100x anymore. there's a middle ground between '10x every cycle' and 'dead money"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:14Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"hyper demand hasn't hit yet but WHERE is it coming from specifically 'corporations allocate 1%' and 'banks advertise it' are gradual adoption trends that play out over years not demand shocks that create 10x moves. we already have ETFs institutions can already buy Fidelity/BlackRock are already marketing it. so what's the NEXT catalyst that's bigger than what we've already seen https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022722812264497486 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022722812264497486"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:21Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"@yuriangelitho 'bitcoin does unexpected things' isn't data it's hopium"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:24Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"institutions have been waiting for years already bro. BlackRock launched ETF in Jan [----] we're over a year in and institutions ARE buying that's literally what drove us from $15k to $100k+. the 'waiting for clarity' narrative was valid in 2022-2023 but we're past that now. ETFs are live SEC approved spot products regulations are settling. if this WAS the institutional wave and we only got 714% gains that proves my point about diminishing returns. what's the NEXT wave after institutions that's even bigger https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022723890003505662"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:25Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"@Searchit001 i literally said BTC is still the best asymmetric bet in finance"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:31Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"institutions warming up from 0% to 2-5% allocations is already priced in bro that's what drove us from $15k to $108k over the last few years. ETFs launched a year ago MicroStrategy has been buying since [----] Fidelity/BlackRock have been in the game. so either this gradual institutional adoption IS happening and we're seeing diminishing returns from it or there's some massive acceleration coming that's 5-10x bigger than what we've already seen. the OCC allowing national banks to hold BTC is bullish long-term but that's slow regulatory wins not demand shocks"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:35Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"even with PEAK liquidity in 2020-2021 (zero rates unlimited QE stimmies) we only got 714% gains vs 2110% before. so liquidity helps but doesn't override the market cap math. unless next cycle has even more extreme monetary conditions than 2020-2021 the diminishing returns pattern holds. that's my whole thesis https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022726706197598241 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022726706197598241"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:36Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"@BuyBitcoin_NOW_ that's basically SPX returns. BTC can still do 200-300% over 3-4 years which is like 30-40% annualized way better than stocks"
X Link 2026-02-14T19:17Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"@cachesensitive why does capital flow specifically to BTC vs gold stocks real estate the inflation thesis helps long-term but doesn't override the diminishing returns pattern we've seen three cycles straight"
X Link 2026-02-14T19:19Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"nation states and corporates ARE already ramping El Salvador Bhutan MicroStrategy since [----] Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) doubled down plus dozens of public companies added BTC to treasury. that wave has been happening for 4+ years and we got 714% gains from it. so either this IS the corporate/sovereign adoption wave and diminishing returns are playing out as expected or there's an even BIGGER wave coming that's 5-10x larger. which companies specifically are you thinking will dwarf what MSTR already did https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022753236709671317"
X Link 2026-02-14T19:22Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"you're not getting 10x from THIS cycle's low to THIS cycle's high anymore. you'd need to catch an extreme capitulation bottom and hold through 2+ cycles. that's different from the [----] playbook where you could 10x in one clean 18-month run. we're saying similar things just different timeframes https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022753551395819876 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022753551395819876"
X Link 2026-02-14T19:23Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"@CacheTrading ETF approval WAS the institutional wave everyone was waiting for. it already happened and drove us from $15k to $108k. that's why returns are compressing the big catalyst already played out"
X Link 2026-02-14T19:28Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"@BuyBitcoin_NOW_ if you got in [----] congrats bro you're way up but that doesn't change what the NEXT cycle looks like for someone entering now"
X Link 2026-02-14T19:33Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"@cachesensitive long-term BTC probably does well but not in explosive single cycles anymore"
X Link 2026-02-14T19:38Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"risky move tbh. using USDT as collateral on a CEX to lever into BTC can blow up if we get a deep drawdown and you get liquidated. remember Celsius BlockFi FTX all collapsed. if you do it keep leverage super low like 1.5-2x max and have extra collateral ready if price dumps. honestly just DCA spot without leverage is way safer and still gets you 3-4x from cycle lows without liquidation risk https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023007190211309655 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023007190211309655"
X Link 2026-02-15T12:11Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"@Barakikiki there's 19.8m mined with maybe 4m lost so like 15-16m liquid supply. and yeah if billionaires and corporations actually rush in to compete for that supply it could pump hard. but is that happening NEXT cycle or over the next decade"
X Link 2026-02-15T12:18Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"@Peak_Ascent what's a better asymmetric bet rn in your view genuinely curious. BTC still has massive upside vs downside compared to stocks bonds real estate gold. alts are higher variance but also way more downside risk"
X Link 2026-02-15T12:28Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"@Zoe_104 All dead now. Power law is just this cycle's hopium dealer"
X Link 2026-02-15T13:27Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"@Joncik91 probably something about AI adoption or quantum resistance creating "inevitable exponential growth." Or some new ratio between hashrate and global M2 that "proves" BTC must hit $5M. Same playbook new buzzwords"
X Link 2026-02-15T13:30Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"@10xROE I'm pointing out power law is bullshit That's not an argument that's just cope. If you actually believe in power law explain why it missed by 67% instead of throwing weak insults. Otherwise you're just mad someone poked holes in your favorite hopium chart"
X Link 2026-02-15T14:48Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"what mandates and executive orders specifically You keep saying "read them" but won't cite anything. Institutions aren't "offloading problems" via ETFs - they're literally required to hold the underlying BTC. BlackRock's IBIT holds 560K+ BTC on chain. If there were actual quantum compliance mandates forcing sales we'd see it. Show receipts or it's just FUD https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023047212788527141 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023047212788527141"
X Link 2026-02-15T14:50Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"projection of possibilities" with a 10x range isn't a model it's astrology. And I literally said I studied physics power law isn't physics it's curve fitting. Physics has mechanisms and causality. This has neither. If the bands are so wide you can never be wrong it's useless for anything except copium https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023053204628668873 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023053204628668873"
X Link 2026-02-15T15:14Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"@DigiDollarsBTM gold Amazon housing all form straight lines on log-log over long timeframes. That's literally how the transformation works. And I'm up 40x since [----] so miss me with the "you lost money" cope. If you can't defend power law on its merits just say that"
X Link 2026-02-15T15:17Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"lmao you sent me a calculator showing BTC is "22% undervalued" based on power law and think that proves something The model's "fair price" is $88K and we're at $69K. Cool so it's wrong by $19K right now. My entire point is the bands are so wide ($52K-$88K+ range) that it can never actually be disproven. You're literally proving my argument for me"
X Link 2026-02-15T15:19Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

"what specifically are the masses missing that would push it past $126K Because right now institutional flows are slowing retail is tapped out and macro is tightening. I'm not saying $126K is impossible but what's the actual catalyst beyond "back to normal" Need more than vibes to override the diminishing returns pattern. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023054623192338524 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023054623192338524"
X Link 2026-02-15T15:19Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"bitcoin doesn't "set its own floor price" - the market does. There's nothing special about BTC's scarcity that creates a mathematical floor. The "power law floor" is just where price has historically bounced which is circular reasoning. And other finite assets like gold also show power law behavior on log-log charts. You're describing correlation as causation. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023075878683693149 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023075878683693149"
X Link 2026-02-15T16:44Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"@DigiDollarsBTM Gold has a finite supply too we mine less every year and there's a hard geological limit. Yet gold's "power law" doesn't predict price because scarcity alone doesn't determine value. BTC's 21M cap matters but it doesn't magically create a time-based price formula"
X Link 2026-02-15T16:45Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"right so the "floor" is $52K and BTC was at $15K in [----]. Already breached. The floor keeps getting redefined after the fact. That's the whole problem it's unfalsifiable. If we drop below $52K they'll just recalculate and say "well actually the real floor was $40K all along." It's moving goalposts disguised as science. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023076768870269361 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023076768870269361"
X Link 2026-02-15T16:47Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"ah got it my bad. So you're saying $126K would be the signal that confirms things are actually healthy again not a prediction. Fair enough that would break the current range and show real momentum. I can respect that as a benchmark for "okay we're actually back" rather than just choppy action. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023077536738213995 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023077536738213995"
X Link 2026-02-15T16:50Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"we already have ETFs custody solutions and regulatory clarity in the US for institutions. What specific bill are you waiting for The "trillions waiting on the sidelines" narrative has been recycled every cycle. Institutions that wanted in are already in. The ones that aren't don't want crypto exposure regulation or not. Name the trillions. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023077812249444495 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023077812249444495"
X Link 2026-02-15T16:51Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"Bro BTC is risky because it's volatile and speculative not because of missing regulations. We literally have SEC oversight CFTC jurisdiction FinCEN rules and spot ETFs approved. That IS regulatory clarity. "The clarity bill" isn't some magic switch - institutions have everything they need to buy right now. They're not buying more because allocation limits and risk appetite not regulations. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023119704240619849 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023119704240619849"
X Link 2026-02-15T19:38Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"Long-term BTC is probably fine maybe great. But people need to separate "BTC will likely appreciate over a decade" from "power law guarantees $1M by 2030." The first is reasonable the second is hopium. Your 10+ year horizon is smart - just don't expect 100x anymore expect steady outperformance https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023121226710069484 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023121226710069484"
X Link 2026-02-15T19:44Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"bitcoin's tech is solid I never said otherwise. But price discovery happens in fiat markets whether you like it or not. "1 BTC = [--] BTC" doesn't pay rent or buy groceries. Volatility is measured in purchasing power and BTC swings 30-50% regularly. The tech being good doesn't make it immune to market forces or guarantee any specific price trajectory https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023123516531626035 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023123516531626035"
X Link 2026-02-15T19:53Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"18x vs 1.3x over 3-4 years is still meaningful alpha not "beating by a little." But your broader point stands - BTC isn't the cheat code it was in [----]. It's now a volatile growth asset that can outperform but requires timing and conviction. Better than stocks worse than the myth people sell. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023123779640308162 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023123779640308162"
X Link 2026-02-15T19:54Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements

"Bitcoin follows the US political cycle with great precision. Year after election = Bull market top. Every time. 2013: Top 2017: Top 2021: Top 2025: Top Midterm year = Bear market bottom. Every time. 2014: Bottom 2018: Bottom 2022: Bottom 2026: Bottom (My forecast is for Oct 2026) It gets even more interesting. The bottom is getting closer to midterm election day each cycle. [----] Midterm - Bottom [--] days later [----] Midterm - Bottom [--] days later [----] Midterm - Bottom [--] days later The gap is shrinking by almost half each time. At this rate the [----] bottom lands right around the November"
X Link 2026-02-11T13:09Z 12.1K followers, 40.8K engagements

"Bitcoin will never do another 10x from a cycle low. Bottom to top gains each cycle: 1- 2015-2017: 12900% 2- 2018-2021: 2110% 3- 2022-2025: 714% Each cycle returns roughly 1/5th to 1/3rd of the previous one. My target for next cycle peak is $155K-$190K from a $37K-$50K bottom. Next cycle will do 200-300% at best. We are not getting a 10x or 20x ever again. 94% of all BTC is now already mined. The supply shock everyone keeps mentioning has already happened three halvings ago. Bitcoin may still be the best asymmetric bet in finance but the 100x days are log gone and mathematically over. The"
X Link 2026-02-14T12:57Z 12.1K followers, 94K engagements

"The Bitcoin Power Law is the most overhyped inaccurate model in crypto that still has a serious following. The model predicted $210000 by January [----] and Bitcoin is trading at $70000. A 67% error. But nobody will call it out because the models price bands are so wide theyre impossible to disprove. Support at $48K resistance at $491K. Thats a 10x range. I can predict the weather will be between [---] and [--] degrees and be right every day. 1- Take any asset that went up over [--] years 2- Plot it on a log-log chart 3- It looks like a straight line 4- Call it a law of nature Thats the entire model."
X Link 2026-02-15T12:55Z 12.1K followers, 45.6K engagements

"@GlendailH BTC isn't bleeding because of quantum threats that don't even exist yet. It's bleeding because macro is shit liquidity dried up and people are taking profits. Quantum FUD is just the new excuse bears grab when they run out of real reasons"
X Link 2026-02-15T13:31Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements

"amazon stock from [----] to now on a log-log chart is literally a straight line. Gold prices over 50+ years on log-log Straight line. Real estate indices over decades Same thing. Any asset with long-term appreciation creates a power law relationship on log-log regardless of the underlying mechanism. The transformation does the work not some universal law. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023122323365409270 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023122323365409270"
X Link 2026-02-15T19:48Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements

"Well you asked for diminishing returns in other assets and here it is. Gold. 1971-1980: 2328% in a single decade after decoupling from the dollar. 1980-2000: Negative 69% over [--] years. 2000-2011: 619%. 2011-2023: 8% in [--] years. That is diminishing returns. It does not require a log-log chart to exist right Second you claim the distinction between log linear and log-log is what makes Bitcoin unique. I understand the distinction. Exponential growth produces a straight line on a semi log chart. Power law growth produces a straight line on a log-log chart. These are different functional forms."
X Link 2026-02-16T01:20Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements

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