@ResearchQf Avatar @ResearchQf QF Research

There is no news or social post specifically about QF Research. The provided tweets appear to be about other companies and economic data, including MP Materials, LITE, and CPI core data. No information is available about QF Research.

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Social Influence

Social category influence stocks 46.4% technology brands 37.6% finance 36% countries 10.4% cryptocurrencies 4% currencies 3.2% social networks 2.4% travel destinations 2.4% automotive brands 0.8%

Social topic influence ai 44.8%, $nvda 14.4%, this is 14.4%, open ai 12.8%, stocks 10.4%, if you 7.2%, china 7.2%, future 6.4%, at least 6.4%, $sndk #228

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @openai @theinformation @nopeitslily @rwang07 @extliqprovider @markosaaig @analysisop @gdb @davidjollyfl @vitrupo @oalexanderdk @googledeepmind @waymo @thepondering @demishassabis @isomorphiclabs @nothoodlum @sethbannon @cgasparino @potus

Top assets mentioned NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Lumentum Holdings Inc. Common Stock (LITE) Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO) Apple, Inc. (AAPL) Fabrinet (FN) Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL) Western Digital Corp (WDC) Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) CoreWeave, Inc (CRWV) Coherent Inc (COHR) Stacks (STX) MP Materials Corp. (MP) Dell Technologies, Inc. (DELL) Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) Teradyne, Inc. (TER)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"1) NFP 130K vs 65K cons. Private 172K vs 68K. A few outliers. Health Care & Social Assistance 124K. Government -42K. Minor [--] month revisions. 1) NFP enough for bullish cut narrative to stick around. Certainly won't impact AI views. Solidifies Sep cut and a decent possibility of cuts in Oct and Dec. Currently pricing in [----] cuts by Dec from [---]. 22K vs 75K cons. [--] month revision -21K. Private 38K vs 75K cons as govt https://t.co/YNqzwudLD0 1) NFP enough for bullish cut narrative to stick around. Certainly won't impact AI views. Solidifies Sep cut and a decent possibility of cuts in Oct and"
X Link 2026-02-11T13:41Z 24.6K followers, 11.6K engagements

"6) It's shocking how few know what's about to hit us. "Cambrian explosion." Not only stocks next W M Q or even Y though how can one ignore LT exponentials To repeat think of not only your P&L but your career future and loved ones. And their futures. https://x.com/jimmyyhwu/status/1867267048864461166 When will robots help us with our household chores TidyBot++ brings us closer to that future. Our new open-source mobile manipulator makes it more accessible and practical to do robot learning research outside the lab in real homes https://t.co/J4qvUMd84f"
X Link 2024-12-20T17:20Z 24.6K followers, 16.7K engagements

"1) US momentum to value ratio update. MS long baskets. Reversion typical (so far) at least on a [--] day % change basis for momentum vs value. Reversion is still tough to discern in long term Russell [----] vs NDX chart. 1) There were all sorts of price revisions this week. You name 'em. Small vs large cap. Value vs momentum. AI semis vs AI loser SaaS. Russell [----] vs NDX. Is it even a reversion yet https://t.co/eMKpqjyJVg 1) There were all sorts of price revisions this week. You name 'em. Small vs large cap. Value vs momentum. AI semis vs AI loser SaaS. Russell [----] vs NDX. Is it even a"
X Link 2025-08-19T20:33Z 24.6K followers, 23.9K engagements

"1) $SNDK Dec Q guide. EPS $3.30 vs $1.76 cons. Looks great but had to be great. SNDK will prob beat that and I'd be surprised if EPS runrate wasn't above $25 vs $10 cons within a few quarters. Whether stock is up or down tomorrow what really matters is earnings runrate thru [----] and market's view of peak & normalized earnings. 1st order framework is same as DRAM. TLC QLC SSD etc prices are up big but not nearly as much as DRAM. Assume commodity spots are up 50%. Contracts lags. Assume base. [---] price/70 cost = 30% GM. Price lags spot. If prices are +20% QoQ [---] price/70 cost = 42% GM. That's"
X Link 2025-11-06T22:23Z 24.6K followers, 81.8K engagements

"Every family needs a secret code now. We've had one since [----]. Create the code off-grid at a family get together. Convincing digital voice/video clones can take seconds via spam calls to record voice social media scraping (happening at scale) or even your voicemail greeting. If a "loved one" calls in a panic but doesn't mention the code don't argue. Say "ok I'm sending the money." After hanging up call back immediately since incoming calls are easily spoofed. Hopefully you hear "Hi dad" This should help until more sophisticated scams. My wife calls me panicked. The call is from her number"
X Link 2026-02-12T13:41Z 24.6K followers, 39K engagements

"The ratio of S&P [---] equal weighted vs S&P [---] market cap weighted index hit the lowest level since [----] on 10/29/25. Since then equal weighted S&P has outperformed 8%. That's a typical breadth reversion (so far) in both secular bull and bear markets. No idea if that ends this week this month or even next quarter but we may be closer to the end than the beginning. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021977092221444410 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021977092221444410"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:57Z 24.6K followers, [----] engagements

"1) NFP enough for bullish cut narrative to stick around. Certainly won't impact AI views. Solidifies Sep cut and a decent possibility of cuts in Oct and Dec. Currently pricing in [----] cuts by Dec from [---]. 22K vs 75K cons. [--] month revision -21K. Private 38K vs 75K cons as govt lost jobs & below low expectations. Prior govt pop e.g. 73K in Jun had been revised away Education & Health Services are low. Spillover from federal cuts UE SA rose to 4.3% (unrounded from 4.248% to 4.324%) as both unemployed and employed numbers rose M/M. 1) NFP beat. 147K vs 106K cons. Component surprise was"
X Link 2025-09-05T12:57Z 24.6K followers, 13.5K engagements

"2) It's really worth listening to what MU said last week. - HBM3E and HBM4 are now "fully contracted" C26 - No redesign required contrary to "self-interested" headlines from a specific country - Best performance out of the chute at "high yields" - They emphasized the "right kind of CMOS" with key IP and advanced "metallization technology" It was clear from earlier analyst previews that MU would sound reassuring on HBM4 but these are very specific comments that companies can't make lightly. This is enough detail for an engineer (i.e. Gemini [--] or OpenAI 5.1) to narrow the scope of MU's base die"
X Link 2025-11-24T19:55Z 24.6K followers, 50.7K engagements

"1) [----] was the first year that AI across multiple analytical dimensions made a material difference in investment decision making. One forward example based on $TSEM's Q3 earnings commentary: "We're working on three different pathways depending on customers' needs and desires to do the 400G modulator." Below is an AI-generated interpretation of TSEM's [--] modulation pathway comment for 400G/lane modulation in 3.2T+ photonic interconnects. This is one of many cases where AI may help identify future "alphabet soups" technology winners. Take a look. This was generated in Nov after TSEM Q3 call as"
X Link 2026-01-21T14:42Z 24.4K followers, [----] engagements

"1) $SNDK guided EPS $12-14 vs $4.95 consensus. Rev $4.6B vs $2.9B cons. SNDK Mar Q guide assumes average NAND price only roughly doubled since summer. TLC spot is up 6x since summer. QLC is up 4x. Think about that as catchup continues. It's still very surprising that there's such arb from back of the envelopes but will do that after the call. Below was the 1st order framework. E.g. this was for DRAM. If price doubles not only does GM rise from 50% to 75% revenue also doubles. DRAM spot is up 7x. Even if contract doesn't go up as much peak earnings are going to be ridiculous. 1) $MU a few"
X Link 2026-01-29T21:32Z 24.6K followers, 81.8K engagements

"1) Silver was down as much as 35% today. Not a typo. That's by far the worst single day decline since [----] if it holds into close. Prior worst declines were -18% (3/27/80 & 4/20/06). With hindsight I should've lagged all sales & shorting even fatter OTM calls by a few days but you don't need to top tick especially after catching bulk of the move in [--] months (and silver chatter became deafening). More to follow. This isn't Warsh nomination btw. 3) If wanted to reduce exposure $SLV call IV is at a 13Y high (calls were cheap before the parabolic ramp). Skew is now fairly neg. E.g. sell Apr +10%"
X Link 2026-01-30T18:46Z 24.6K followers, 19.2K engagements

"1) $TER. Is the compute test inflection here Big beat & massive guide due to "AI-related demand in compute and memory." Mar Q guide $1.2B vs $0.93B. EPS $2.07 vs $1.26. TER said at UBS in Dec "We are late in that third phase now" and more significant volume is "probably back half of '26." $NVDA test may finally be kicking in. TER is already winning VIPs XPU test share with their UltraFLEXPLUS platform but NVDA is still the whale. SOC TAM was $7B last year and growing fast. Compute test share gains next few years are the biggest swing factor for stock. Details after tomorrow morning's call."
X Link 2026-02-02T22:02Z 24.6K followers, 53.1K engagements

"1) $LITE just guided to $805M midpoint vs $707M consensus. EPS $2.25 vs $1.59. OM 30.5% vs 22.1%. - Continued growth in ultra-high-power lasers for CPO solutions; broader ramp expected in 2H CY26 - OCS shipments exceeded $10M quarterly run rate; manufacturing readiness proceeding ahead of plan - Pretty much everything else Not bad. Details after the call. $LITE guided to a big Dec Q. Sales $650M vs $562M cons. EPS $1.40 vs $1.17. OM 21% vs 18%. As always management comments are critical. But based on what I expect (which could be wrong) this guide is before the more interesting product"
X Link 2026-02-03T21:09Z 24.6K followers, 155.2K engagements

"2) LITE embeds perhaps the most holy grail comm techs. Optics will begin to "subsume copper." Pace to that ultimate TAM enabled by optical switching photonics integration & scale-up matters far more than even those backlogs & new orders. More later. https://x.com/ResearchQf/status/1996654784145936637 3) It's even more valuable doing work on alphabet soups. Most don't understand hard tech. Not that I really do but P&L impact is material and growing. Pace of change keeps accelerating. Several decades-long "holy grail" techs have emerged or will soon. https://t.co/T5REYxQ6ii"
X Link 2026-02-04T03:18Z 24.5K followers, 16.8K engagements

"Damn $GOOGL GCP 48% growth vs 35.5% cons and 38%+ whispers GCP OM 30.1% vs 22.4% Gemini MAU 750M+ Q4 vs 650M+ Q3 Capex guide $180B vs $120B"
X Link 2026-02-04T21:19Z 24.6K followers, 47.1K engagements

"RT @gdb: Software development is undergoing a renaissance in front of our eyes. If you haven't used the tools recently you likely are und"
X Link 2026-02-06T00:56Z 24.6K followers, [----] engagements

"Had a discussion with a very sharp guy today. Here's my verbatim take on our sweet spot: "I extrapolate my usage all the time too. Obviously those guys are [--] levels higher but all we need is to be half a level ahead of your average analyst or PM and then extrapolate to AI infra which industry guys and academics aren't as good at." "That's our sweet spot." That's doubly true for investing in tech & AI: "Use AI whether video image agents context etc. Then come up with independent frameworks" beyond coding. "That's the conviction then follow data points." epiphany after a month of coding: ppl"
X Link 2026-02-06T02:02Z 24.6K followers, 18K engagements

"1) Regardless of whether that was a more durable low silver's risk/reward improved on multiple fronts. I'd begun covering those short OTM calls. Call deltas are lower and IV re-priced (esp around now 150% strikes) crushing premiums. Theta helped too. Moderately long now with flexibility to add lower or higher. Trying to bottom (or top) tick such moves is usually more expensive. 1) Silver was down as much as 35% today. Not a typo. That's by far the worst single day decline since [----] if it holds into close. Prior worst declines were -18% (3/27/80 & 4/20/06). With hindsight I should've lagged"
X Link 2026-02-06T13:47Z 24.6K followers, 11.2K engagements

"RT @davidjollyfl: Folks this election is no longer about policy - it's about our national identity about who we are. The President depict"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:44Z 24.6K followers, [----] engagements

"RT @vitrupo: David Kipping says something fundamental has shifted in science. At a closed meeting at the Institute for Advanced Study (IAS"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:01Z 24.6K followers, [----] engagements

"Top [--] reasons why there may be a bubble. #10. Peter Lynch: Invest in what you know. I told everyone "you don't know yet but you'll own AI stocks." That's starting to play out with rolling waves of aha moments each bigger than the last. But AI is fundamentally so different that typical bubble analogies and any post-bubble dynamics are probably lazy and incorrect. Certain rhymes might still help. Apples to apples valuations are still nowhere near late 1990s. 1) Why there may be a bubble. Top [--]. Not in any order except #1. Sorry in adv if these cause corrections. #10. Peter Lynch. Still"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:49Z 24.6K followers, 10K engagements

"RT @OAlexanderDK: You managed to turn the most Pro-U.S. country in Europe into a country where 84% of people have a negative opinion of the"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:35Z 24.6K followers, [---] engagements

"RT @GoogleDeepMind: Genie [--] 🤝 @Waymo The Waymo World Model generates photorealistic interactive environments to train autonomous vehicle"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:39Z 24.6K followers, [---] engagements

"RT @thepondering_: fwiw Andy McCarthy conservative lawyer Fox News legal analyst National Review contributor professional hater of Bid"
X Link 2026-02-08T19:40Z 24.6K followers, [----] engagements

"RT @demishassabis: The drug design engine were building at @IsomorphicLabs is extending the SOTA further across key benchmarks showing hu"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:59Z 24.6K followers, [---] engagements

"2) Unemployment 4.3% vs 4.4% cons. AHE +0.4% vs +0.3% M/M. Benchmark revisions -862K vs -825K. Somewhat noisy but contribution for those with college degrees or higher was 1.16% vs 1.09% last month and 0.89% a year ago"
X Link 2026-02-11T13:49Z 24.6K followers, [----] engagements

"$MU presentation at Wolfe just started. Let me "address some recent inaccurate reporting on our HBM [--] position." - Have been in high volume production - Commenced HBM4 production - Shipment ramping successfully in Q1 (one quarter earlier than they indicated in Dec earnings call) - Sold out HBM supply as mentioned months ago All other comments are as one might expect so far. 2) It's really worth listening to what MU said last week. - HBM3E and HBM4 are now "fully contracted" C26 - No redesign required contrary to "self-interested" headlines from a specific country - Best performance out of the"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:00Z 24.6K followers, 54.7K engagements

"RT @NotHoodlum: I didnt realize we dont pursue pedophiles if the stock market is doing well. Thank you Pam Bondi for that clarification"
X Link 2026-02-11T19:53Z 24.6K followers, 17K engagements

"RT @sethbannon: This account was suspended immediately after this tweet"
X Link 2026-02-12T02:07Z 24.6K followers, [----] engagements

"2) imo the physics Nobel. And theoretical physics (obv experimental physicists & other Nobels are brilliant). o1 (a preview) is an improvement over "not completely incompetent grad student." A not completely incompetent grad student for Terence would be the smartest person "
X Link 2024-11-11T23:06Z 24.6K followers, 175.4K engagements

"1) Robots are making huge strides. Mechanical multiplied by AI 3D vision physical models etc. It's only one AI adjacency but its impact alone is enormous coming years/decades. Imho this alone could be by far largest macroecon driver yet it's being . https://www.citigroup.com/global/insights/the-rise-of-ai-robots https://www.citigroup.com/global/insights/the-rise-of-ai-robots"
X Link 2024-12-20T17:20Z 24.6K followers, 11.6K engagements

"1) Why there may be a bubble. Top [--]. Not in any order except #1. Sorry in adv if these cause corrections. #10. Peter Lynch. Still shocks me how few truly know and use AI or sense its future. I tell everyone "you don't know yet but you'll own AI stocks." Audio visual . 6) It's shocking how few know what's about to hit us. "Cambrian explosion." Not only stocks next W M Q or even Y though how can one ignore LT exponentials To repeat think of not only your P&L but your career future and loved ones. And their futures. https://t.co/dQwmtyJ4Gf 6) It's shocking how few know what's about to hit us."
X Link 2025-01-03T19:23Z 24.6K followers, 56.7K engagements

"Storage cool to hot is another AI theme that really took shape recently. LT still looks great. It's kind of obvious if one think about it. Analysis later. Those with mostly DC exposure outperformed those with large CE end markets (despite strong ST data points) due to worries about end demand & 2H to 1H pull-in risks. Net CE demand destruction ST is still unclear and depends on policy but they're cheap on a normalized basis. Edge AI remains a big driver IT to LT. 1) That AI inference spike is continuing. Beyond images multimodal video AI whether @OpenAI $GOOGL's Veo [--] & Gemini [---] or those"
X Link 2025-05-20T14:36Z 24.6K followers, 78.2K engagements

"1) Storage stocks (components) reacted as expected Fri. $STX $WDC (mostly DC) up Fri despite EU & $AAPL threats. Both up big YTD. $MU & $SNDK (large CE exposure) down Fri despite strong ST data points. Hard to believe but MU is +11% YTD. Again fears of pull-in and net demand destruction from unknown future electronics tariffs such as [---]. High level anecdote. I have an AI output folder. Folder size is growing exponentially. Text was tiny. Multimodal i/o such as document formats audio e.g. NotebookLM images video = storage rose from tiny - 100's KB - MB's - 10's MB - [---] MB or more/file. More"
X Link 2025-05-26T21:11Z 24.6K followers, 58.2K engagements

"1) Nice week for AI but software net exposure was at [--] year lows and negative near July end (GS PB). Glad didn't post this then. We all wanna be contrarian. Semi exposure was also at lows entering [----]. Remember tech (and general equity) sentiment then But that was right after ChatGPT moment though market took a while recognizing its importance. Imo we're still in very early innings of understanding consequences of AI. Many are still trying to ignore it. 1) S&P Info Tech (semis SW HW comm equip etc) total long/short ratio is at 10+ year low. Also most underweight 10+ years (GS PB). Semis are"
X Link 2025-08-08T21:41Z 24.6K followers, 18.8K engagements

"5) Just briefly $SNDK is also trading better. For good reasons. DC demand for eSSDs had a short pause but resumed strong growth. Consumer flash could become a real tailwind one day when edge AI storage kicks in for PCs SPs & AI native devices. Also SNDK sales beat & raised but Sep Q EPS guide was somewhat "below" consensus at $0.80. But EPS guide still included $13M underutilization charges and $60M startup costs. These will go away. It's possible SNDK earnings power is $7-8 within a few quarters. Peak EPS could be much higher depending on secular AI demand and future cyclicality. NAND"
X Link 2025-09-03T21:56Z 24.6K followers, 50.5K engagements

"$LITE guided to a big Dec Q. Sales $650M vs $562M cons. EPS $1.40 vs $1.17. OM 21% vs 18%. As always management comments are critical. But based on what I expect (which could be wrong) this guide is before the more interesting product drivers really kick in C26 and beyond. 3) Back to COHR and LITE (which remains a top interconnect position). In May I mentioned LITE CQ4 [----] could be well into $600M's which was well above cons. That cons is now $678M and a $700M Q is a now decently more likely than not. A very interesting narrative is wrt https://t.co/8HaxpYjtyp 3) Back to COHR and LITE (which"
X Link 2025-11-04T21:18Z 24.6K followers, 96.2K engagements

"1) $TSM results. Key metrics met or exceeded buyside expectations. Q4 beat with stronger Q1 guide: - Rev $35.2B vs $32.6B cons - GM another big step up 64% vs 60.3% cons from AI tools higher UTR pricing. - AI productivity. "That 1% or 2% productivity improvement that is free to TSMC and that's why also our gross-margin is a little bit satisfied even in this a very high cost period of time." - AI productivity is R&D operations manufacturing. Recall TSM said in Q2 "1% of productivity gains in a company of our size that equals to $1 billion." This number multiplied in [--] months. - AI CAGR '24-'29"
X Link 2026-01-15T14:30Z 24.6K followers, 46.6K engagements

"1) A reminder how actually insane the runup to [----] dotcom peak really was. $VRSN peaked at 300x P/T12M rev. $JDSU $PMCS hit 100x. Remember ART Tech 180x. $ZICA (Chinese text entry on handsets) 700x. With 10-30% corrections every M or [--] as 100's stocks rose 50x 100x or "
X Link 2023-05-31T17:12Z 24.6K followers, 151.4K engagements

"US momentum vs value mean reversion (so far). [--] day % change of momentum vs value just hit Mar levels. For context on size of short term reversion only. [--] day % change was much lower in Apr because that panic had longer duration. MS long baskets have long history and I've posted this series recently. As always don't know if bottoms today next week this quarter etc but doubt yet again that this is all over imho. However one's view will depend primarily on longer term views top down & bottoms up AI growth. Keep in mind absolute levels of momentum/value ratio over long term horizons aren't"
X Link 2025-11-13T17:23Z 24.6K followers, 125.2K engagements

"If you ran $ADBE and had $200 billion would you do anything different"
X Link 2026-02-05T22:11Z 24.6K followers, [----] engagements

"Almost the minute GPT [---] codex came out the @OpenAI ecosystem (which includes $NVDA) started snapping back. That's during a huge rising AI tide. Constraints everywhere seem worse almost daily. It felt almost too obvious though "OpenAI compute" was never gonna be unused no matter who wins. Net token demand trajectory isn't likely to change. But keep that in mind as fully Blackwell (and then Rubin) trained models roll out. OpenAI: "GPT5.3-Codex was co-designed for trained with and served on NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 systems." h/t to the creator of the "YOU ARE HERE" chart (can't find the original)."
X Link 2026-02-09T16:23Z 24.6K followers, 20.5K engagements

"AI packaging bottleneck. $AMKR [----] capex guide $2.5B - $3.0B vs $1.3B cons. That's 3x actual [----] capex of only $905M This trend already started showing up across certain packaging equipment supplier earnings with possibly more to come. Advanced packaging is constrained for multiple AI applications. Most interesting number this afternoon (so far). 1) $TSM results. Key metrics met or exceeded buyside expectations. Q4 beat with stronger Q1 guide: - Rev $35.2B vs $32.6B cons - GM another big step up 64% vs 60.3% cons from AI tools higher UTR pricing. - AI productivity. "That 1% or 2%"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:38Z 24.6K followers, 91.5K engagements

"AI packaging bottleneck. $TSM BoD approved $45B capex in Q1. For context that was $17B in 1Q25. And approved $4.7B for advanced packaging & specialty devices vs $1.8B 1Q25 and $1.2B 4Q25. That's consistent with earnings comments that advanced packaging & specialty devices have higher share of $52-$54B capex (also higher than expected). This has been showing up in packaging equipment supplier & competitor results. There could be more. There's upward bias to capex even if approvals are lower Q2-Q4. Advanced packaging is one of multiple AI constraints. AI packaging bottleneck. $AMKR [----] capex"
X Link 2026-02-11T23:20Z 24.6K followers, 28.2K engagements

"Logistics stocks are crashing today. Wealth advisory stocks were hit hard recently. What are 3rd party logistics companies They are brokers Companies that optimize scheduling loading (kinda like load balancing $FFIV) and so on for shippers carriers buyers. OHften with few hard assets. It's software all over again. There are so many possible AI losers every day that my head is spinning. $RIME has a market cap of $7M but just erased many billions of logistics market caps. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022019281513222176 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022019281513222176"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:45Z 24.6K followers, 13.5K engagements

"1) AI Data Center With Up to [--] GW of Power Is Envisioned for South Korea (WSJ) In case you haven't seen yet. a) While 1st Stargate DC (only [--] GW initially) is under construction in TX there are already [--] more mini-Stargate announcements: b) France c) Korea. Like France . 1) Follow on report @theinformation. Still want to see others confirm with more details but consistent with Stargate dynamics so far. a) Protection from Musk b) $ORCL signed deal to lease [---] GW for Abilene. Crusoe wants to grow DC to [--] GW mid-'26. $100B total cost while . https://t.co/FRdBTE7GEK 1) Follow on report"
X Link 2025-02-18T18:14Z 24.6K followers, 44.1K engagements

"Trump Team Seeks to Toughen Biden's Chip Controls Over China (BN). Could take months but regulations being considered include further $NVDA export restrictions asking Japan and Netherlands (again) to stop maintaining $ASML (DUV) and TEL equipment intensifying restrictions on SMIC Huawei and importantly restricting CXMT as well as strengthening AI diffusion framework. That could include lowering limit of [----] H100 equivalents without a license (for Tier 2). Discussions sound early so would assume much can change"
X Link 2025-02-25T03:29Z 24.6K followers, 14.1K engagements

"This is a must read. Trump Warned US Automakers Not to Raise Prices in Response to Tariffs (WSJ). CEOs were rattled and worried they would face punishment. And "they were baffled by the desire to both impose tariffs - but also tell car companies they couldn't raise prices." Lol the executive then says "so who pays for that" Us Not China the consumer or Canada This is after our president threatened EU and Canada with "far larger" tariffs if they worked together. "The impacts are so potentially negative that we struggle to see how such measures can truly remain a 'permanent feature' of the US"
X Link 2025-03-28T01:55Z 24.6K followers, 54.1K engagements

"This is correct. What a fckin joke. Switzerland. Exports $25B. Imports. $63.4B. Deficit $38.4B. 38.4/63.4 = 61% "tariffs charged to the USA" Japan. Deficit/imports = 68.5/148.2 = 46% "tariffs charged to the USA" Thailand. 45.6/63.3 = 72% "tariffs charged to the USA" Just figured out where these fake tariff rates come from. They didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers as they say they did. Instead for every country they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us. So we Just figured out where these fake tariff rates come"
X Link 2025-04-02T22:53Z 24.6K followers, 19.7K engagements

"Politico story is consistent with Bessent being asked to negotiate with Japan instead of Lutnick and earlier reporting by @CGasparino. This is a step in the right direction but there's been a sea of stories and this is just one more. Is there room for compromise and how fast can they move if so https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/07/trump-bessent-trade-deals-tariff-endgame-messaging-00277395 Following a very constructive phone discussion with the Government of Japan @POTUS @realDonaldTrump has tasked me and @USTradeRep to open negotiations to implement the Presidents vision for the new"
X Link 2025-04-07T23:04Z 24.6K followers, 33.1K engagements

"Barrage of $NVDA checks over the last day basically say same thing. GB300 board from Cordelia back to Bianca to mitigate further risk of delay due to yield which is implies GB200 yields have really improved. Cordelia boards can always come back later gen. Some checks suggest both GB200 and Hopper orders actually increased due to you know that inference spike that's been obvious for weeks. Rate limits and even outages at major AI services. It'd be comical if it wasn't so sad. Had a rational competent administration focused on what's most important to our future AI instead of delusions"
X Link 2025-04-11T16:19Z 24.6K followers, [----] engagements

"1) Stephen Miran met hedge funds and big asset managers after tariffs sparked Wall Street turmoil (FT). Some found Friday's meeting counter-productive with two people describing Miran's comments as "incoherent" or incomplete. One said he was "out of his depth." When he got questions "that's when it fell apart." It's worth recalling past CEA chairs include Greenspan Stiglitz Yellen Bernanke Lazear and Furman. Seemed nice enough on X but how did an average FinXer almost get cast as the John Keynes of Trump's trade theory"
X Link 2025-04-29T23:39Z 24.6K followers, 65.3K engagements

"Robotics will 100% be a multi-$trillion revenue industry. Even top CS graduates are having a very tough time finding jobs even though they're supposed to replace all those expensive senior SW engineers. Physical AI just began. The opportunity is massive and will grow for decades. I almost wish I could go back to school. This will likely produce a business 100x bigger than Apple's market cap (or more) What's clear now is we're in the right decade for humanoid robotics - this will feel like the future jumped ahead by [--] years This will likely produce a business 100x bigger than Apple's market"
X Link 2025-05-16T20:10Z 24.6K followers, 56.9K engagements

"@nope_its_lily Next Q. Impact Apr Q was also larger. But H20 isn't relevant at this point. It's whether rack units are 9K 12K or 14K in a few quarters"
X Link 2025-05-28T20:52Z 24.6K followers, 24.1K engagements

"$AVGO. With the huge move to ATH it's not surprising trading down somewhat on inline headline & guide. $NVDA is still below ATH. AI revenue was $4.4B inline with guide. But July Q AI guided to $5.1B which is ok and above $4.8B cons. Sweet part of $GOOGL $Gemini TPU6 $META MTIA Tomahawk [--] (102.4 Tb switch with 200G SerDes capability) etc should still be in future quarters. Tapeouts for new customers are also coming but size of specific opportunities are still not well understood. While AVGO isn't cheap on today's AI rev Hock's earnings comments (he sometimes describes SAMs & timing with more"
X Link 2025-06-05T20:40Z 24.6K followers, 19K engagements

"1) Only new info here is he's prob approving whatever deal was made London. Not mentioning any concessions for rare earths iss to be expected. [--] hours of talks WSJ report that He Lifeng drove a hard bargain AND that Bessent & co needed Trump's approval (people had a sense what Trump approved before talks) suggests that details may be different than Geneva How did we get to the point where official Chinese readout has more credibility than the White House Also He Lifeng and Li Chenggang presser sounded as or even more positive than Bessent and Greer's. This is esp true of Li Chenggang's"
X Link 2025-06-11T13:12Z 24.6K followers, 60.1K engagements

"1) $ORCL is now an important and incrementally very important AI read for obvious (e.g. Stargates & @OpenAI) but also less obv reasons. May Q a decent beat though IaaS inline. A few interesting metrics: RPO: - Nov '24 Q $97B. Feb '25 Q $130B. May '25 Q $138B vs $128B cons (current portion in call) - "RPO is likely to grow more than 100% in FY26" cons () Capex: - Nov '24 Q $4.0B. Feb '25 Q $5.9B May '25 Q $9B cons More later. As always Larry's comments will be critical. ORCL 10Q can be juicy"
X Link 2025-06-11T20:52Z 24.6K followers, 41.4K engagements

"2) Even if you don't care about ORCL tech or AI do yourself a favor and listen to Larry Ellison who's run ORCL since the 1970's. A few choice quotes: "We actually currently are still waving off customers . This is a situation that we have not seen in our history and the numbers themselves are so enormous." "We recently got an order that said we'll take all the capacity you have wherever it is. This could be in Europe it could be in Asia we'll just take everything . The demand is astronomical." "I mean I don't know how to describe it. I've never seen anything remotely like this." Clearly"
X Link 2025-06-11T23:12Z 24.6K followers, 60K engagements

"1) US Eyes Plan to Use Cold War-Era Powers to Develope Rare Earths (BN). "MP Materials the sole domestic producer of rare earths would be a prime beneficiary." $MP 1) Rare earths. Trade China and $MP "If China doesn't speed up those approvals companies have warned the White House auto plants may have to idle pandemic-style stoppages." (WSJ) Rare earths were more important for initial trade detente with China than some realized. https://t.co/NDISjMbXcx 1) Rare earths. Trade China and $MP "If China doesn't speed up those approvals companies have warned the White House auto plants may have to"
X Link 2025-06-12T19:53Z 24.6K followers, 31.6K engagements

"1) Here's one oldie. $LITE beat & raised early May then preannounced + at BofA early Jun and guided Sep Q to $500M one Q earlier than expected. LITE has multiple secular drivers but OCS (Optical Circuit Switch) seems very underappreciated. LITE is a big net supplier of high speed datacom sources that are still in short supply such as EMLs & CW SiPh (i.e. LITE is a true net beneficiary when CPO takes off & will gain transceiver share) as well as coherent DCI & telco products. But check out OCS which is a 300x300 (going to 500x500 or more) MEMs based optical switch. Remember MEMs"
X Link 2025-06-24T02:38Z 24.6K followers, 32.3K engagements

"$MRVL mentioned winning [--] "emerging hyperscaler" XPUs during its Custom Silicon Webinar. Have been narrowing the pool also but GF Securities comment about @xai and $ORCL might be valid (but want further confirmation). Identities of several new $AVGO customers are reasonably well understood and Hock has mentioned conditions wrt customers AVGO is willing to work with. That leaves a pretty small pool of emerging hyperscalers. ORCL and xAI are in that small pool. $AVGO. With the huge move to ATH it's not surprising trading down somewhat on inline headline & guide. $NVDA is still below ATH. AI"
X Link 2025-06-24T04:31Z 24.6K followers, 34K engagements

"1) $NVDA hit ATH yesterday. Other AI related names are at or near ATHs. Makes sense. AI demand & supply data keep improving almost daily within an exponential framework. It's not impossible that CQ4 NVL racks may be 12-14K vs 6K in CQ2. Prior post in May was more a 20-80 guestimate. Q4 variance is still very large but smaller than in May. Track data real time going forward. Subject to quick change. That's with BW Ultra only starting to kick in. B300 production prob 100K's in Q3 with nominal GB300 shipments (given lag to racks) but some GB300 volume CQ4 followed by bigger ramp in [----]. More"
X Link 2025-06-27T00:25Z 24.6K followers, 39.7K engagements

"1) Pentagon Invests In Rare Earth Magnet Producer $MP to Back New Plant (BN). MP secured $400 equity investment from US DoD To build a new plant with $1 billion financing from JPM and GS. Pentagon also agreed to purchase any of the plant's NdPr products at (above market) floor of $110 per kg. These are Sputnik moments from both US and China. 1) US Eyes Plan to Use Cold War-Era Powers to Develope Rare Earths (BN). "MP Materials the sole domestic producer of rare earths would be a prime beneficiary." $MP https://t.co/jyGD03EDIH 1) US Eyes Plan to Use Cold War-Era Powers to Develope Rare Earths"
X Link 2025-07-10T12:34Z 24.6K followers, 14.3K engagements

"1) Commercial Times is reporting that $TSM is accelerating construction of its previously announced 3rd fab in Arizona and expected to start selecting suppliers this quarter "striving to complete the contract award before the end of the year." Maybe not a coincidence that Taiwan didn't hasn't receive a letter (yet). There is a great deal of speculation around TSM & possibly Taiwan as a whole receiving favorable Section [---] treatment and/or some level of exemption(s). Both Trump & Lutnick also hinted at grace periods. Taiwan hasnt received a notice from the US regarding tariffs (yet) via BN."
X Link 2025-07-14T02:30Z 24.6K followers, 11.7K engagements

"5) Don't be too bearish LT. If bullish prob should understand true driver. To repeat again never seen anything remotely like this in my career. Liberation [--] or whatever can cause ST selloffs but AI exponential still overwhelms over sufficient periods. https://x.com/ResearchQf/status/1936167410463395993 https://x.com/ResearchQf/status/1936167410463395993"
X Link 2025-07-15T01:51Z 24.6K followers, 14.3K engagements

"2) *TRUMP: PHARMA WON'T BE PART OF IT Headlines few minutes into the meeting. At least he didn't mention chips. Trump headlines are misleading most of the time. Not sure what that means. Is that above 15% but much less than 200% What about grace periods & interim tariffs Are there quotas before higher tariffs such as outlined for metals To repeat "hopefully everyone gamed him sufficiently for Sunday" as they did with Japanese negotiations"
X Link 2025-07-27T16:34Z 24.6K followers, 18.1K engagements

"That was fast. Less than an hour after presser ended. Prob means existing metals tariffs have a quota as reported before the meeting. We'll know details behind pharma quickly. Also implies coming semis & electronics are capped at 15% for EU. Generally a good sign for AI and its supply chain but will know for sure quite soon. 2) *TRUMP: PHARMA WON'T BE PART OF IT Headlines few minutes into the meeting. At least he didn't mention chips. Trump headlines are misleading most of the time. Not sure what that means. Is that above 15% but much less than 200% What about grace periods & interim tariffs"
X Link 2025-07-27T17:56Z 24.6K followers, 16.5K engagements

"1) Optical interconnect update. $LITE & $FN closed at ATH. $COHR lagging slightly. Discussed why that may be earlier. Classic 800G 1.6T transceiver data points have improved globally for months including just reported $GLW & $CLS. GLW rose to 24Y high with a big beat & raise due to optical comm fiber which rose +41% Y/Y and beat cons by almost $100M at $1.57B. Enterprise (which includes DCs) was +81 Y/Y. CLS beat & raise was driven by CCS ($2.07B rev vs $1.89B) where 800G switches are ramping at multiple hyperscalers. CLS has also won 1.6T programs that will begin generating some rev 2H '25"
X Link 2025-07-30T13:18Z 24.6K followers, 10.9K engagements

"4) $NVDA will lead 1.6T with GB300 & ConnextX-8. But $GOOGL isn't far behind. Others are following. $FN was a clear beneficiary. Decline in its 800G will mean revert. Smoother BW Ultra ramp will helps 1.6T. FN has other drivers including DCI and $AMZN. https://x.com/ResearchQf/status/1900544515338825925 https://x.com/ResearchQf/status/1900544515338825925"
X Link 2025-07-30T13:18Z 24.6K followers, 21.7K engagements

"If some of this talk about increasing orders from @OpenAI partners (plus higher CSP4 capex and some incremental sovereigns into 2026) as well as continued supply improvements are real . Should hear more soon if valid. Hon Hai AI servers were slightly disappointing in June but they should & need to improve significantly through 2H. Have to deconvolve large companies like Hon Hai more carefully. Apr up big MoM wasn't about AI. Neither was May down MoM"
X Link 2025-08-04T13:52Z 24.6K followers, 31.5K engagements

"2) It's still bit shocking when most analysts who cover 20-30 stocks fail to ask the key questions about true drivers of a company. Harder the tech the less likely. This is actually good for those who put in work. Will go over some details tomorrow if have time. Stock is now +/- after hours. But forget ST for a minute. Numbers will go up a lot next 1-2 years short of some economic calamity. $600M+ CQ1 seems more likely than not vs $559M cons (which has also risen sharply) coming into today. At this point a $700M Q late C26 could be more likely than not vs $650M cons. With $7-8 EPS power"
X Link 2025-08-12T23:50Z 24.6K followers, 32.7K engagements

"2) Are we sure of HBM oversupply soon with these dynamics & demand spreads Didn't even mention edge which will mix in with DC HBM. Will $AAPL $MSFT Huawei $DELL etc finally get edge AI SP NB DRAM content too. Lower total capex today better than not. https://x.com/ResearchQf/status/1955086476351250576 https://x.com/ResearchQf/status/1955086476351250576"
X Link 2025-08-15T18:47Z 24.6K followers, 68.2K engagements

"1) Hon Hai takes baton from smaller ODMs on schedule. If you missed earnings call HH guided AI servers as much as 300% Q/Q or potentially 4x Q/Q. Nomura after visiting HH on 8/15 during tech tour: HH observes its CSP clients are "desperate" to get more GB200s and would not want to wait for GB300. GB300 ramp smoother than GB200 which isn't new. This is beyond July monthlies and certain temporary GB200 to GB300 transitions at smaller ODMs where demand is not an issue. Orders were stronger everywhere. This has yet to be fully absorbed and reported by analysts but that's already rolling this"
X Link 2025-08-17T21:44Z 24.6K followers, 44.7K engagements

"1) Speaking of latest video & image AI in prior thread here's an AI storage update. $STX $WDC. Maybe even $SNDK Kioxia $MU etc soon with DC & edge AI WDC +54% since this post and +71% YTD. STX +41% since 5/26 and +84% YTD. STX said "a typical one-minute video consumes 100x more data than one HD image. So think about that." 1) Storage stocks (components) reacted as expected Fri. $STX $WDC (mostly DC) up Fri despite EU & $AAPL threats. Both up big YTD. $MU & $SNDK (large CE exposure) down Fri despite strong ST data points. Hard to believe but MU is +11% YTD. Again fears of pull-in and net"
X Link 2025-08-24T17:17Z 24.6K followers, 27.8K engagements

"1) We're barely past month seven. Trump might respect only two people in the world. Putin and Xi. China can punch back hard. Uppercut is rare earths. Russia I also wonder. Li Chenggang heads to DC this week and will demand fentanyl tariffs be removed and looser tech restrictions (WSJ). What's the chance the 20% fentanyl tariffs ultimately disappear and Xi has cards for more than just H20 whether B30A and/or WFE First Geneva. Then London. Stockholm. Now Washington. #USCHINA trade talks https://t.co/sVcxNWmerU First Geneva. Then London. Stockholm. Now Washington. #USCHINA trade talks"
X Link 2025-08-26T02:34Z 24.6K followers, 32.7K engagements

"2) Even BB WSJ FT MS GS NYT Reuters etc make mistakes or incorrectly interpret what sources may have said. Reporters aren't tech analysts but a hallmark of professionalism is updates and changes. This also reminds me of the 90's. Human behavior hasn't changed when there's huge $ at stake. Social media adds to that dynamic which will get worse. S/N is falling and will continue to do so not because of S but rising N. These are opportunities. I do mention data sometimes but when fuller context is more supportive and still caveat by saying other supporting data may be needed to increase"
X Link 2025-08-27T13:39Z 24.6K followers, 27K engagements

"1) $IREN. Another in lower tier list. These are small but pure (or purer) than tier [--] CSPs = leverage as AI tides rise. Will be awful if & when tides recede but that's not today. See past posts $CRWV $NBIS $APLD $WULF. "In terms of revenue these GPUs will be delivered and progressively commissioned over the coming months targeting $200 million to $250 million of annualized revenue by December this year." AI Cloud Services revenue annualized was mid $20's Jun Q. Horizon [--] and [--] underway and they alone will support 38K GB300s. Sweetwater "could support [------] GB300s (sic they mean B300)." 1.4"
X Link 2025-08-29T13:31Z 24.6K followers, 26.6K engagements

"1) $NVDA is more likely have bigger upside(s) than usual by Jan Q. Based on a pretty broad set of data points. It's also not impossible that Oct Q could also be quite decent. Given NVL run rate by Q4 one week in timing could mean over +/- $3B. But timing won't matter if NVDA DC rev has larger than usual midpoint for combined Oct + Jan Q vs $101B DC cons for that period. This is independent bottoms up & top down build. I.e. most sell side models look more conservative than typical. There's always a spread could be wrong but my midpoint is higher than normal vs expectations. Subject to quick"
X Link 2025-09-03T12:51Z 24.6K followers, 21.3K engagements

"Was it my imagination or did $TER seem a touch more confident at Citi vs earnings call a month ago about breaking into GPU test next year with Rubin Nothing is decided but was tone a bit better And TER was willing to discuss its confidence around the UltraFLEXplus tester designed "specifically for high-perf compute kind of bottoms up for this as opposed to an evolutionary increment to an existing tester." Would be a very big deal if TER is successful even if initial share is low as qual for compute test is a critical long process. But outcome is lasting once qualified. Advantest dominates GPU"
X Link 2025-09-05T17:54Z 24.6K followers, 27.7K engagements

"1) This is insane on multiple levels. Add extreme comments from nativists. They are "illegal aliens" and they deserve being chained as publicly as possible. Let's set aside that Korea is #2 in the world in batteries and have some of the world's top manufacturers and technologists. They are building a $7.6 BILLION battery plant in Georgia that will be operational later and will create 1000's of jobs in a critical industry where US has little expertise. Let's also set aside that these professionals are actually needed to build and train but they have jobs & families in Korea and like $TSM"
X Link 2025-09-08T02:05Z 24.6K followers, 24K engagements

"1) $SNDK +58% since this post last week. $MU is up big too and near ATH. MU has real SSD exposure. HBM/DRAM later but overall S/D in '26 '27 is what really matters. Oversupply seems a little less likely. ST datapoints in MS report aren't really new and have been reported by other sources the past week but comprehensive thematic views starting to taking hold. If one were paying close attention it was clear for weeks that NAND and eSSDs had picked up. Wish I'd discussed that somewhat earlier. SNDK presented at GS yesterday evening. Bullish tone for sure but not too many details. 5) Just"
X Link 2025-09-11T14:28Z 24.6K followers, 18.5K engagements

"Even the price action is giving me deja vu. Some AI stocks are now most extended since [----] or since they've been around. Yet recent pullbacks are often shallower. Incredibly this isn't yet close to what true dotcom stocks did even during pre-bubble stages. But more of this and we'll be closer. I'll discuss details if we reach that point. It's gonna sound crazy to some but that's when the "easy" money is sometimes made. There's certainty no guarantee that there's a future bubble. Or another policy induced panic or a geopolitical crisis could easily occur first. As always top-down &"
X Link 2025-09-12T21:04Z 24.6K followers, 12.9K engagements

"1) Remember that Feb mini-panic about data center oversupply Here's a DC & DC supplier update. 10Q's are also must reads. And perhaps Larry does believe what he said last week. $ORCL is making commitments. Here's one of the Cowen notes that triggered that scare. $MSFT cancelling leases "points to a potential oversupply position." AI trade was all over again. Mentioned at the time "what DC industry is seeing globally is the opposite." Cowen had taken [---] + [--] = +1 but only pointed out [---]. And this was before the huge surge in inference which is continuing. What were MSFT & ORCL lease commitments"
X Link 2025-09-14T20:11Z 24.6K followers, 29.2K engagements

"$NVDA underperformed for a few weeks due to several reasons but if anything feel more comfortable of bigger upside(s) than usual by Jan Q. [----] outlook is still improving at least on an absolute basis. $AVGO & @OpenAI doesn't help. Gemini has been #1 for [--] days in a row on $AAPL app store [--] days. That's also not great for sentiment since $GOOGL TPU has some real share. And NVDA is a convenient punching bag. But is something more likely to happen in China than not Not only RTX Pro [----] or H20 but a more powerful chip If so Chinese market for NVDA is multiples of what AVGO just gained from OAI."
X Link 2025-09-15T14:51Z 24.6K followers, 40.9K engagements

"1) $COHR risk/reward improved IT and I rotated a part of LITE back into COHR. It's still a smaller position. $LITE almost tripled past year and outperformed COHR 2.2x. For good reasons. LITE was and still is better positioned across a range of current and future interconnect technologies & products. As a result LITE's forward earnings cons rose 30%. COHR's forward cons was almost flat after last [--] Q's. But based on data today COHR numbers also have greater upside vs downside while valuation compressed. LITE also became much too big in the portfolio but that's portfolio dependent. 2) It's"
X Link 2025-09-18T22:07Z 24.6K followers, 30.8K engagements

"1) "If few months of early model (still previews) image & short videos are already making a difference for cool to hot storage imagine much longer high resolution consumer to cinematic videos over the next year or two. And AI storage is more than videos." Without @OpenAI and others in the game nor most GenZ's & millennials (yet) but they all will. @sama mentioned compute-intensive offerings for Pro users only. Could be it. If so specs will be interesting. If not it's when and not if. Full Veo [--] (still preview) is still only available for $GOOGL Gemini Ultra subs but just standard res [--] sec"
X Link 2025-09-21T21:30Z 24.6K followers, 22.7K engagements

"Looks like @OpenAI won't go bankrupt anytime soon. They didn't need $300B and had little doubt they were going to be funded them one way or another. And even in the 1990's similar investments began well before that bubble actually got going. Numbers like [--] or [--] GWs are being thrown around. These are just massive but don't be sure jthat compute won't be required. This also isn't vendor financing a la Lucent Nortel Alcatel $CSCO Motorola Nokia etc etc in the 1990's (yet). They financed Global Crossing WinStar (fixed wireless networks) ICG Teligent Qwest and so on . Even if "bubble-like""
X Link 2025-09-22T17:13Z 24.6K followers, 50.1K engagements

"1) Whatever $AMD MI450 volumes for @OpenAI may be scale-up is much more than AMD and should still be a top interconnect term. Credible non $NVDA scale-up tech providers include $AVGO $ALAB and perhaps even $MRVL. UAE & UAL next few years. A few market caps are still tiny and everyone is placing multiple bets. E.g. Tomahawk Ultra announced this summer is optimized for scale-up. [---] nm latency PAM4 SerDes 51.2T Ethernet switch for up to 256s XPU to [---] XPUs. AVGO was down as much as $13 pre-market because its custom ASIC for OpenAI. Even if Rubin wasn't delayed maybe that Fubon note had"
X Link 2025-10-06T14:24Z 24.6K followers, 40.2K engagements

"Doubt this was a main driver for the selloff today. However most reporters also aren't financial analysts and @theinformation has been mixed. $125M gross profit on $900M revenue or a disastrous 14% gross margin E.g. $ORCL just began filling in its Abilene DC. Try back of envelopes but depending on unknown depreciation & fixed cost overheads possible GM for massive DCs that are quickly built and are just starting to be utilized has a . very wide range. There are assumptions under which it wouldn't be shocking for initial GM to be negative at very low utilization for a facility of this"
X Link 2025-10-07T18:14Z 24.6K followers, 28.7K engagements

"1) Believe it or not we're still not anywhere close to the craze of the dotcom bubble into [----] using apple to apple comparisons. Detailed examples another time. Again these aren't predictions but only observations. That includes pinned tweet from May [----] (also not a prediction). Rather for the first time in my career it occurred to me that ingredients of a real bubble could be coming together due to AI and its future curves. One didn't think in such terms as a naive young PM in the 90's. The bull was like ether or the air we breathe. I had less experience but I could do DCFs much faster"
X Link 2025-10-09T00:02Z 24.6K followers, 36.3K engagements

"1) $NVDA higher target at Cantor is based on some info. CJ hosted several days of meetings for Jensen and Colette. The bubble or not commentary you decide. - Customers are searching desperately for compute wherever they can find it and every GPU sold out - Huge uplift in consumer demand from "long thinking" and inflection in AI token demand last 12-16 weeks likely tied to time-based reasoning coupled with multimodal inputs led by video None of this should be that surprising if one's been paying attention but it's always good to hear all this again especially when Colette is there. $NVDA"
X Link 2025-10-09T18:26Z 24.6K followers, 15K engagements

"1) Mainstream DRAM and NAND spot prices were up 10% last night alone. DDR5 spot just doubled. I've never seen this before. $MU and SK Hynix almost doubled since local bearish peak for DRAM & HBM in Aug. Large parts of buy & sell-side as well as Fintwit. Do math for "commodity" DRAM margins. Assume spot goes sideways and contract (which lags spot) catches up. If [---] price/50 cost = 50% GM. [---] price/50 cost = 75% GM (). It's not surprising every time I turn around any incremental price negotiations for HBM3e and HBM4 sound better. Have discussed varying fungibility timeframes between DDR and"
X Link 2025-10-20T22:35Z 24.6K followers, 100.1K engagements

"1) Trump Xi meeting could be very important. 2nd day also seems to have gone well. Incremental developments since Madrid and recent saber rattling appear to include "substantial" soybean purchases what could be more proactive mentions of tech export controls & fentanyl as well as final TikTok details. Importantly both Hi Lefeng and Li Chenggang also made positive comments Sunday. 1) Only new info here is he's prob approving whatever deal was made London. Not mentioning any concessions for rare earths iss to be expected. [--] hours of talks WSJ report that He Lifeng drove a hard bargain AND that"
X Link 2025-10-26T14:52Z 24.6K followers, 54.1K engagements

"1) $NVDA financial team clarified those details yesterday evening to analysts. Jensen misspoke as mentioned here. If one took his statement literally he said at least $500B next [--] quarters but $500B is cumulative BW & Rubin over [--] years thru end of C26 or F27. His GTC slide is still fine and not inconsistent. For example this is MS comment this morning after feedback from Colette's team. My back of envelope last night is roughly inline. It's not the 60% higher forward guide but still well above consensus "so far" and doesn't including China where Trump said "we'll be speaking about"
X Link 2025-10-29T12:17Z 24.6K followers, 70.8K engagements

"1) $IREN indicated up 20% pre-market. Signed $9.7B contract with $MSFT (including a 20% prepayment) or [---] MW GB300 load at Childress over just [--] years where new DC capacity will be available in [----]. IREN also made a separate agreement to purchase $5.8B of equipment from $DELL. Recall Childress is planned for [---] MW of total capacity and Sweetwater is on track for [--] GW. 1) $IREN. Another in lower tier list. These are small but pure (or purer) than tier [--] CSPs = leverage as AI tides rise. Will be awful if & when tides recede but that's not today. See past posts $CRWV $NBIS $APLD $WULF. "In"
X Link 2025-11-03T13:31Z 24.6K followers, 15.5K engagements

"1) $FN is the first major interconnect supplier to report. Beat & guided to a big CQ4. $1.075B vs $0.98B cons and on the bright side of the ledger even today. The [--] segments discussed prior posts all contributed to upside. Datacom DCI and HPC. Largely 1.6T for $NVDA BW Ultra new DCI programs for $CIEN (including CWDM/DWDM) $AMZN HPC (Trainium). "All three of those look to be very strong. DCI it's been a fantastic set of products for us and customers. Of course datacom is great for everybody and then HPC." 200G EMLs are still constrained for 1.6T. Not surprising but also not bad for $LITE who"
X Link 2025-11-04T15:31Z 24.6K followers, 32.9K engagements

"AI headlines especially around $NVDA has been rough for weeks. Timing of the unforced error by @OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar is also perfect but underlying reality whether one believes is bullish or bearish didn't change much. And many AI infra suppliers recently spiked big to ATHs. Part of that is specific product drivers to AI growth. But near term reads for NVDA also aren't bad. NVDA has also had a pattern of rising into earnings but has now pulled back 9% (so far) from recent ATH. A kind read Risk/reward into $NVDA print may be improving assuming results and commentary are reasonably good. 1)"
X Link 2025-11-06T17:12Z 24.6K followers, 17K engagements

"Remember Terence Tao's backhanded praise of o1-preview just a year ago He described o1-preview's mathematical ability as "roughly on par with trying to advise a mediocre but not completely incompetent graduate student." But "a not completely incompetent grad student for Terence would be the smartest person most would likely ever meet" outside those communities. Now he's coauthoring papers using the LLM powered tool AlphaEvolve. It's not only coding math sciences medicine law accounting finance etc. The anecdotes I've about R&D or engineering across multiple industries have also broadened"
X Link 2025-11-07T18:50Z 24.6K followers, 174.2K engagements

"1) South Korea's chip stockpiles increased by most in more than four years (BN). The Y/Y spike in chip inventory in '18 was followed by a cyclical downturn. Excesses are bigger this cycle. This is inventory just at . $SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-30/south-korea-s-chip-stockpile-jumps-amid-tech-slowdown-concernssref=EIoLdIrN https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-30/south-korea-s-chip-stockpile-jumps-amid-tech-slowdown-concernssref=EIoLdIrN"
X Link 2022-06-30T16:30Z 24.6K followers, [---] engagements

"Sam Altman Seeks $Trillions to Reshape Business of Chips and AI (WSJ) - project could require raising as much as $5 to $7 trillion - Altman has often complained there aren't enough chips to power OpenAI's quest In case you think $90B WFE ( in '22) & $100B of GPUs is too much"
X Link 2024-02-09T03:50Z 24.6K followers, 23.6K engagements

"Some asking why $VIX stuck "high" with ATH S&P. 90's vol was structurally high. $SMH 3M impl vol is [--] and 2x pre-AI (non-bear) years. Daily vol 37/sqrt(252) 2.3%. Or 2% moves 1/3 days. Mostly noise with ghost signals. Should happen IF poss future bubble. More later"
X Link 2024-09-27T18:35Z 24.6K followers, 30.6K engagements

"You didn't trade tech thru [----] if you think this is anything resembling a bubble. Little doubt AI changes our society & nature in a way no tech has imho. Anyways the possible bubble No certainty if or when. But a true cyclical AI correction next few Y is a touch less likely. 4) Exponentials aren't intuitive and this is one of kind. Most don't know what's about hit us. Relatedly chance of a real bubble next years ticked up. Need a long thread. Gonna attach this to every post. What's a [--] million Rubin cluster going to do OMG. https://t.co/wDEWARxMi1 4) Exponentials aren't intuitive and this is"
X Link 2024-11-10T16:36Z 24.6K followers, 15.4K engagements

"1) Thank you @VKMacro for mentioning Siemens Energy. And I kicked myself. Have worked on grid infra due to AI since last year. Beyond in-rack and in-DC power. Grid tech orders T12M = 20.9B vs 8.6B sales. B:B = [---] Or backlog grew 23B to $33B. Heard from renewable . Siemens energy https://t.co/IfBRvPIfar Siemens energy https://t.co/IfBRvPIfar"
X Link 2024-12-11T17:15Z 24.6K followers, 15.3K engagements

"1) Words "upside skew" wasn't an accident. There was big options component in $MRVL trade. But this post is about ease of options strategies with simple AI. Advice on when to use options later in thread. a) $90 call 12/20 expiration: Cost $2.2. Last trade = $35.60. Not bad 1) Options. It's 100% clear to me that if you know a company and its cyclical/secular fundamentals better you often have better view of outcome distribution than what markets price. But you need basic options understanding. I've asked variations of this in interviews when . 1) Options. It's 100% clear to me that if you know"
X Link 2024-12-16T23:37Z 24.6K followers, 34K engagements

"1) Siemens Energy ENR outperformed $VRT 22% since Dec Q results yesterday. Both are DC power stocks but market may not fully understand timing mismatch. More later but ENR orders have been HUGE. Total B:B = [---]. Grid ( distribution) B:B [---] Gas turbine B:B [---] and [--] GW . 2) PE investors for a while that lead times e.g. transformers were stretching. Transformers Barely tech. Now certain lead times are many years Industry can't meet demand. Tech investors more focused on $VRT's +160% YTD. But: Siemens Energy +321% YTD (by far highest in DAX). https://t.co/4vdmtltZe8 2) PE investors for a while"
X Link 2025-02-13T22:31Z 24.6K followers, 42.4K engagements

"1) Jack Ma deserves attention but many invited by Xi are among who's who of Chinese tech leadership. Huawei Xiaomi CATL BYD Tencent DeepSeek Iflytek Will Semi . Unitree. Policy statements are huge. Unitree isn't as known but like EVs (BYD). https://x.com/UnitreeRobotics/status/1890377207169548775 What Dance Would You Like to Perform with Unitree G1 With the upgraded algorithm G1 can learn any dance. Leave a comment to tell us what dance you'd like to see😘 #Unitree #AGI #EmbodiedAI #SpringFestivalGalaRobot #AI #Humanoid #Bipedal #WorldModel #Dance https://t.co/pskis1nycg"
X Link 2025-02-18T02:16Z 24.6K followers, 20.4K engagements

"1) It's one of the oldest tricks in the book. A trader starts a rumor by calling other traders. "Hey I'm hearing this rumor." Even better is the more innocent "are you hearing this rumor" I'd consider the 1st FinTwit source of "there's a rumor going around" before judging credibility of any rumor. Unclear how much impact this had. And imo Trump & co finally started scaring investors"
X Link 2025-02-21T22:04Z 24.6K followers, 151.9K engagements

"1) $MSFT DC scare 🧵. High level with details if have time. Some know all datapoints mentioned. Or more (if you have non-MNPI data pls DM me). a) Conclusion 1st. Global AI capex next few years went UP recently. Even MSFT. Is this just the latest AI scare Again Trump & co finally began scaring investors. Have pet theories about scenarios but a different thread. The usual discussion about LT AI variability later in 🧵. Even Satya Sam Ilya Jensen Dario Jeff etc don't know 5-10 year consequences of AI. I have no idea. There's never been a tech cycle like this in human history. But let's start"
X Link 2025-02-23T23:30Z 24.6K followers, 145.2K engagements

"7) OpenAI is the consumer and enterprise leader today for a multitude of reasons. I find it most valuable followed by Gemini. Grok discussion at a later time but AI in all forms is equivalent to a good analyst for me already. Jagged though. AR super analysts with 1M Rubins Even more confident today. This doesn't mean anyone and certainly not me knows who very long term winners or survivors are. That includes OpenAI. I've also often mentioned uncertainty around even $NVDA $AAPL other layers 1-3 and layer [--] application companies many of which I am or have been generally long since '23. As"
X Link 2025-02-23T23:31Z 24.6K followers, [----] engagements

"8) One more data point before some local press releases. $BABA has done well. Take a look at its capex ramp in just reported Q and forward comments. No wonder H20 orders were widely reported to have picked up last month. And $GDS (9698 HK) benefited with a big run despite exposure to ASEAN data centers. https://x.com/ResearchQf/status/1891914216795222190 https://x.com/ResearchQf/status/1891914216795222190"
X Link 2025-02-23T23:31Z 24.6K followers, 10.9K engagements

"1) There are certain DC developers and related "footprint" suppliers that I wasn't long but couldn't help starting to nibble today. This is with knowledge which I didn't have time to discuss that total $MSFT leases "that had not yet commenced" were: Jun Q $117B (a peak after that huge lease ramp prior [--] years) Sep Q $116.1B Dec Q $100B $100B is still huge but that alone would be a bad reason. What DC industry is seeing globally is the opposite. Bottoms up data (more always comes out after mini-shocks) is remarkably consistent a broader top down analysis. Not sure widely understood. 1) $MSFT"
X Link 2025-02-24T22:45Z 24.6K followers, 26.7K engagements

"@rwang07 Yes Wiwynn has 70-80% of its capacity in Mexico and it seems none in China. Mar rev was 86.6B vs 46.5B in Feb prob due largely to pull-ins"
X Link 2025-04-09T14:45Z 24.6K followers, [---] engagements

"1) $CRWV is small and plays that role at the margin. AI demand spike last few months was broad but @OpenAI had a big role. Some data: a) $MSFT. Commercial bookings grew +17% Y/Y and +6% Mar Q due largely to OpenAI after a spectacular Dec Q where bookings grew +75% Y/Y. Again OpenAI. MSFT had guided Mar bookings flat in Jan. "We expect growth to be roughly flat Y/Y." Instead bookings grew 17% and RPO grew to $315B from $298B Dec and $235B Mar '24 Despite OpenAI trying to diversify with $CRWV and its other DCs they simply needed more compute NOW. MSFT capex comments were also good and continued"
X Link 2025-05-16T16:39Z 24.6K followers, 18.9K engagements

"1) Rare earths. Trade China and $MP "If China doesn't speed up those approvals companies have warned the White House auto plants may have to idle pandemic-style stoppages." (WSJ) Rare earths were more important for initial trade detente with China than some realized. Chinese rare earth controls are similar in nature to US tech export controls. But why are mostly unknown elements so important"
X Link 2025-06-01T17:50Z 24.6K followers, 59K engagements

"AI is changing the world but you ain't seen nothing yet. In a blink of an eye in historic terms AI will change our very nature. I might've been a cyclical or a secular bear today under current circumstances if ChatGPT hadn't happened yet. Then again markets wouldn't be anywhere near this level without AI THE driver of this secular bull. Even if someone was bullish last few years it could be just fortune unless he or she understood AI intuitively & technically. Even many tech specialists missed much of this as hard tech expertise is still in short supply. And many bears are busy blaming"
X Link 2025-07-28T00:07Z 24.6K followers, 43.9K engagements

"1) Damn $MSFT Azure beat big growing 39% Y/Y vs 34.2% cons. Commercial bookings +30% Y/Y. RPO grew $53B Q/Q to $357B. Like $GOOGL AI demand is only accelerating. $MSFT capex ex-leases $17.1B vs $17.9B cons. F26 capex guide on earnings call is much more important. $META capex inline at $16.5B vs $16.4B cons. Zuck only raised '25 capex from $64-72B to $66-$72B but he had raised big last Q. AI inference & token explosion is continuing and prob the leading indicator. Conference calls always critical. 1) $CRWV is small and plays that role at the margin. AI demand spike last few months was broad"
X Link 2025-07-30T20:21Z 24.6K followers, 27.4K engagements

"$ORCL RPO. I first thought it was a typo. RPO increased 359% to $455B. Consensus was $149B. "Astonishing quarter" and "RPO is likely to exceed half a-trillion dollars." 1) $ORCL is now an important and incrementally very important AI read for obvious (e.g. Stargates & @OpenAI) but also less obv reasons. May Q a decent beat though IaaS inline. A few interesting metrics: RPO: - Nov '24 Q $97B. Feb '25 Q $130B. May '25 Q $138B vs $128B cons https://t.co/Bas6m3vv6n 1) $ORCL is now an important and incrementally very important AI read for obvious (e.g. Stargates & @OpenAI) but also less obv"
X Link 2025-09-09T20:10Z 24.6K followers, 46.6K engagements

"Even if you don't care about $ORCL tech or AI do yourself a big favor (again) and listen to Larry who's run ORCL since 1970's. Or listen to other tech leaders. Maybe leading AI researchers who are among the smartest people in the world really do see something most don't understand Recall Larry's comments in last Q - we are waving off customers situation we have never seen in our history and the numbers are so enormous demand is astronomical I don't know how to describe it I've never seen anything remotely like this. A few this Q. "Not everyone fully grasp the extent of the tsunami that is"
X Link 2025-09-10T13:35Z 24.6K followers, 58.5K engagements

"Jensen might've misspoken which is why "we really need Colette to be sure." More details to come. More than $500B BW & Rubin so far and not including China is still significantly above consensus of $455B for total DC revenue (assuming defined revenue compare is roughly apple to apple) for [--] years through Jan '27 Q. I went back and listened to Jensen again a half a dozen times here. Some headlines read $500B of business next [--] quarters for $NVDA. But at one point he explicitly said $500B next [--] quarters. And is that Blackwell and Rubin revenues only rather than total Consensus for next 6"
X Link 2025-10-29T02:08Z 24.6K followers, 67.9K engagements

"1) Storage stocks cool to hot are the top [--] stocks YTD. And would be top [--] if $SNDK were included which is +454% since its spin-off from $WDC in Feb. $STX $MU Hynix Kioxia HDDs NAND & SSDs. DRAM & HBM. As someone who followed these industries for a long time this is remarkable. AI-related stocks are bulk of top performers. But S&P [---] doesn't even include other top themes discussed this year (neocloud interconnects physical & military AI rare earths power and others). Many outperformed even storage & memory. Value has been unkind. Storage cool to hot is another AI theme that really took shape"
X Link 2025-11-02T19:04Z 24.6K followers, 56.3K engagements

"SK Hynix is down 15% in [--] days. Korea Exchange issuing an "Investment Caution" yesterday didn't help but stock did go a little parabolic. Regulators would jump to the buyside if they could outsmart markets. $ANET down $20 after earnings also doesn't help among others but ANET did lose some share back to $NVDA where networking grew from $3B to 7.3B last [--] quarters after flatlining well over a year. Jayshree didn't really give the impression of denying that either. ANET also isn't able to ship to demand due to . memory constraints. And $AVGO switch chips. "Lead times on many of our components"
X Link 2025-11-05T02:52Z 24.6K followers, 31.9K engagements

"1) Burry's conclusion is economically wrong. He is technically right in the sense depreciations are incredibly rough accounting estimates (as a side note this is also true of plenty of fully depreciated plants & fabs out there that are are still in operation and profitable today). Do your own back of envelopes. It's worth your time. Below are [--] independent H100 $/GPU-hr trackers since early [----] which align in overlapping periods. Conclusions first. Depending on use cases and other assumptions buyers of H100 late [----] may have broken even already or will soon. Most importantly total ROI may"
X Link 2025-11-11T20:22Z 24.6K followers, 125.1K engagements

"1) $SNDK is down 14% today but still 7x since its Feb spinoff from $WDC. Did you know 3M ATM implied vol was [---] yesterday (even higher than peak Liberation Day panic spike) as stock closed at a new ATH of $283 That's up from implied vol of [--] in Aug when stock was only $48. Vol multiplied as stock skyrocketed. Not to overdo 90's analogies but this (which includes many AI winners) is one of the reasons why vol was structurally higher late 90s and why vol may remain higher if this bull market continues. Index 1M vol was much higher last few years than lows seen near [--] during market highs"
X Link 2025-11-13T22:21Z 24.6K followers, 37.5K engagements

"1) Grid power infrastructure is still on a huge roll. But there are AI macro reasons to update Siemens Energy (ENR GR) and power infra themes. As a reminder ENR is by far the best performing stock in the DAX since the beginning of '24. Up 9x since. ENR hit another ATH after earnings Friday. Book to bill was [----] for Gas Services and [---] for Grid Tech. Or backlog grew for [--] quarters as orders exceeded sales significantly despite strong sales growth. Given visibility ENR significantly raised organic growth targets through F28 due to Gas Services & Grid Tech. Not too surprising in one sense but"
X Link 2025-11-17T02:04Z 24.6K followers, 30.5K engagements

"I went back and listened to Jensen again a half a dozen times here. Some headlines read $500B of business next [--] quarters for $NVDA. But at one point he explicitly said $500B next [--] quarters. And is that Blackwell and Rubin revenues only rather than total Consensus for next [--] quarters is just under $400B. Consensus for next [--] quarters is $320B. That's for total revenue. We really need Colette to be sure"
X Link 2025-10-28T17:59Z 24.6K followers, 116.7K engagements

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