@NateSilver538 Avatar @NateSilver538 Nate Silver

Nate Silver posts on X about silver, in the, politics, ai the most. They currently have [---------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance #3815 countries 6.02% technology brands 3.76% celebrities 1.5% travel destinations 0.75% social networks 0.75% nba 0.75% musicians 0.75% stocks 0.75%

Social topic influence silver #204, in the 5.26%, politics 4.51%, ai 4.51%, this is 3.76%, the world 3.01%, super bowl 2.26%, culture 2.26%, strong 2.26%, nba 2.26%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @kasumin777 @domluszczyszyn @stephenbeban @4intheflames @leisduch @l_darkchocolate @greeknme @jonnachissus @mysticl @evelcrisis @conorsen @wilson__valdez @sekaikuromaku11 @loubebak @danfriedman81 @alicefromqueens @deviknyte @bayareanewlibs @angelasanford22 @galendruke

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Busy day but our Super Bowl preview is out. 🏈 The Seahawks and the Pats started at +6000 and +8000 to win the Super Bowl respectively. Despite being among the most unlikely champs they're probably closer to underrated than overrated. But there's a lot to consider:"
X Link 2026-02-04T22:16Z 3M followers, 60.4K engagements

"I write like shit sometimes but actually bad advice writing bad and revising takes longer than chilling out and writing well once you're good and ready. the most liberating thing in the world is realizing you can just write it bad. you can write it bad and make it good later. does everyone know about this the most liberating thing in the world is realizing you can just write it bad. you can write it bad and make it good later. does everyone know about this"
X Link 2026-02-06T04:33Z 3M followers, 160.3K engagements

"https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-can-win-the-redistricting https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-can-win-the-redistricting"
X Link 2026-02-07T20:44Z 3M followers, 60.9K engagements

"Yeah I've written about that (see below). The issue is Harris took a lot of very progressive stances during her campaign in 2019/2020 and these also aren't liberal positions. She was sorta center-left on economics but progressive/left/woke on culture not a popular combo btw Praying that in [----] highly paid professional pundits finally learn the difference between liberal and leftist. Liberals are literally centrists. Praying that in [----] highly paid professional pundits finally learn the difference between liberal and leftist. Liberals are literally centrists"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:11Z 3M followers, 349.8K engagements

"From today's post which I'll warn you gets nerdy about trying to put numbers behind this. Although being a centrist generally helps voters have to know what you stand for. They regard Bernie as closer to them ideologically than Harris for instance"
X Link 2026-02-09T20:12Z 3M followers, 68K engagements

"There's also some evidence here that women candidates face more trouble "shape-shifting" than men and can be less trusted when they're perceived as switching positions. https://www.natesilver.net/p/kamala-harris-has-liz-cheney-syndrome https://www.natesilver.net/p/kamala-harris-has-liz-cheney-syndrome"
X Link 2026-02-09T20:12Z 3M followers, 57.9K engagements

"@domluszczyszyn Ok cool. And they do have to win a play-in game but it's probably Latvia or something"
X Link 2026-02-14T22:13Z 3M followers, [----] engagements

"Everybody is too risk-averse to write the "actually Trump is terrible at politics" hot take but it will instantly be presumed to be incredibly obvious if polls are roughly correct on Nov. 3"
X Link 2020-10-05T22:11Z 3M followers, 18.9K engagements

"Just go to a state school. The premium you're paying for elite private colleges vs. the better public schools is for social clout and not the quality of the education. And that's worth a lot less now that people have figured out that elite higher ed is cringe"
X Link 2024-04-21T18:24Z 3M followers, 9.7M engagements

"Today's update. It's now literally 50/50. https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model"
X Link 2024-10-15T18:38Z 3M followers, 3.2M engagements

"Don't vote for any Democrat in [----] who doesn't repudiate the pardon within [--] hours"
X Link 2024-12-02T01:03Z 3M followers, 8.8M engagements

"Big Las Vegas fan here. But visits to the city are off by almost 8% this year an unprecedented decline outside of recessions and pandemics"
X Link 2025-12-21T15:21Z 3M followers, 428.1K engagements

"Possibly a worse list than literally picking at random. Best food destinations for [----] [--]. Boston USA [--]. Crete Greece [--]. Fs Morocco [--]. Hong Kong [--]. Medelln Colombia [--]. Minas Gerais Brazil [--]. Parramatta Australia [--]. Patan Nepal [--]. Prince Edward County Canada [--]. Seville Spain (Cond Nast Best food destinations for [----] [--]. Boston USA [--]. Crete Greece [--]. Fs Morocco [--]. Hong Kong [--]. Medelln Colombia [--]. Minas Gerais Brazil [--]. Parramatta Australia [--]. Patan Nepal [--]. Prince Edward County Canada [--]. Seville Spain (Cond Nast"
X Link 2026-01-11T21:27Z 3M followers, 299.5K engagements

"This might be a romantic view actually voters are a lot smarter than JD Vance and Stephen Miller think they are. They didn't get away with this gaslighting in the Renee Good case and now they're trying it again"
X Link 2026-01-24T21:05Z 3M followers, 211.7K engagements

"Literally [--] hours apart"
X Link 2026-01-24T23:17Z 3M followers, 352.2K engagements

"Wrote about Minneapolis. Obviously I have a strong visceral reaction to this. But trying to stick to public opinion in this newsletter. Its clear that many Americans feel the same way"
X Link 2026-01-25T18:03Z 3M followers, 486.3K engagements

"Katie are you objecting to the "liberal" part or the "democracy" part "Liberal" doesn't mean "left" especially when preceded by "classical". It certainly doesn't mean woke. Tbh though it seems like it's the whole democracy thing that bothers you and Stephen Miller. Co-Founder of Anthropic: My deep loyalty is to the principles of classical liberal democracy. If this is what they say publicly this is how their AI model is programmed. Woke and deeply leftist ideology is what they want you to rely upon. Co-Founder of Anthropic: My deep loyalty is to the principles of classical liberal democracy."
X Link 2026-01-26T19:55Z 3M followers, 622.2K engagements

"OK this one makes even clearer that the problem isn't that she doesn't understand "liberalism". It's that she doesn't care for the Constitution. Katie Miller is a former WH spokesperson current advisor to Elon Musk wife of Stephen Miller. https://x.com/KatieMiller/status/2015776930167960062s=20 OPEN AI EXEC https://x.com/KatieMiller/status/2015776930167960062s=20 OPEN AI EXEC"
X Link 2026-01-26T23:25Z 3M followers, 125.1K engagements

"Although the NYT takes a broader overall outlook from [----] through [----] the Post ran about evenly with the NYT in mindshare for American politics coverage as measured by incoming links to @memeorandum. Now it suddenly has only about 1/3 as much influence"
X Link 2026-01-27T21:26Z 3M followers, 83.1K engagements

"Obviously a big part of the story is Bezos's intervention in quashing the Harris op-ed in October [----] plus losing lots and lots of talent. But it's showing up in a really big way in the numbers. More here: https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-sad-and-self-inflicted-decline https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-sad-and-self-inflicted-decline"
X Link 2026-01-27T21:26Z 3M followers, 93.6K engagements

"Maybe because they thought White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller would protect them by saying the civilians they killed while exercising their civil rights were "assassins" or "domestic terrorists" NEWS: White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller says officials are evaluating why Customs and Border Protection agents in Minneapolis may not have been following proper protocol before the fatal shooting of VA nurse Alex Pretti. In a statement to CNN Miller said the NEWS: White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller says officials are evaluating why Customs and Border"
X Link 2026-01-28T04:43Z 3M followers, 511.5K engagements

"Would you do this if you're the Knicks Checks out in trade machine"
X Link 2026-01-28T19:00Z 3M followers, 201.4K engagements

"Democratic primary draft with @ClareMalone and @galendruke [--]. (Galen) Gavin [--]. (Nate) AOC [--]. (Clare) Mayor Pete FYI I'd probably also have taken Newsom #1 if I'd had the top pick. These are my predictions of who Ds will like not who I personally think is most electable"
X Link 2026-01-29T19:27Z 3M followers, 95.4K engagements

"@milansingh03 Ehh I think Talarico's a pretty good politician but can see how he'd be annoying basically Beto but swapping religious vibes for emo and subtracting several inches of height"
X Link 2026-02-02T20:25Z 3M followers, 57.6K engagements

"@conorsen This is basically the Cracker Barrel vs. Whole Foods of finance twitter charts"
X Link 2026-02-03T18:34Z 3M followers, 46K engagements

"Very podcast-y trade your interest in this deal is an exponential function of how many nerdy NBA podcasts you listen to (I listen to all of them). BREAKING: The Memphis Grizzlies are trading star forward Jaren Jackson Jr. John Konchar Jock Landale and Vince Williams Jr. to the Utah Jazz for Walter Clayton Jr. Kyle Anderson Taylor Hendricks Georges Niang and three future first-round picks sources tell ESPN. https://t.co/ax6oQpZx0S BREAKING: The Memphis Grizzlies are trading star forward Jaren Jackson Jr. John Konchar Jock Landale and Vince Williams Jr. to the Utah Jazz for Walter Clayton Jr."
X Link 2026-02-03T18:53Z 3M followers, 189.4K engagements

"Since the "moderation wars" are heating up again I guess I'll repost this very deep dive I took on it from this summer. https://www.natesilver.net/p/real-talk-on-models-moderation-and https://www.natesilver.net/p/real-talk-on-models-moderation-and"
X Link 2026-02-03T22:34Z 3M followers, 62.4K engagements

"As you'll see I do think the impact of moderation has diminished along with all other "candidate quality" variables. But a lot of the work from e.g. Bonica/Grumbach is classic Replication Crisis Era junk science & there's been next to no effort to refute any of these points"
X Link 2026-02-03T22:34Z 3M followers, 47.5K engagements

"Failing that maybe make some testable predictions If your thesis is right where is the conventional wisdom (e.g. as embodied by models or prediction markets) wrong"
X Link 2026-02-03T22:34Z 3M followers, 43.7K engagements

"Only trade with truly A++ Luka-like shock value (not necessarily lopsidedness) would be Giannis to the Thunder. Im hearing a big trade could be going down tonight. Out of left field. Make sure your notifications are on. Im hearing a big trade could be going down tonight. Out of left field. Make sure your notifications are on"
X Link 2026-02-04T02:01Z 3M followers, 250.2K engagements

"The actual NBA trades are now weirder than the fake AI slop trades in my For You timeline"
X Link 2026-02-04T19:10Z 3M followers, 93K engagements

"(This chart is from our newsletter last week. Was hoping things wouldn't be quite this bad though.) https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-sad-and-self-inflicted-decline https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-sad-and-self-inflicted-decline"
X Link 2026-02-04T21:09Z 3M followers, 59.4K engagements

"Here's the result of [-----] simulations of the final score LOL. (There's an EXCEL version of this in the article that's actually legible.)"
X Link 2026-02-04T22:16Z 3M followers, 54.9K engagements

"Whole preview here: https://www.natesilver.net/p/super-bowl-lx-preview-odds-squares-scores-silver-bulletin https://www.natesilver.net/p/super-bowl-lx-preview-odds-squares-scores-silver-bulletin"
X Link 2026-02-04T22:16Z 3M followers, 48.2K engagements

"Well the question answers itself. If you're disinterested disengaged distracted and worth $250B you don't have any incentive to care. Slashing the staff takes less work than finding a buyer which among other things requires taking an ego hit since its an admission you failed. Still baffled: why would a disinterested disengaged distracted @washingtonpost owner hire a seemingly disinterested disengaged distracted CEO suffer perpetual criticism and $ loss Lots of rich people would buy it and even more execs would gladly run it. Show me a single Still baffled: why would a disinterested disengaged"
X Link 2026-02-05T04:28Z 3M followers, 176.2K engagements

"It's probably helpful to consider how other people treat investments or purchases that represent 0.1% of their net worth they'll generally treat them as fun to play around with until they get bored or annoyed but after that point they won't really GAF"
X Link 2026-02-05T04:49Z 3M followers, 64K engagements

"Not a good heuristic Gerry when the owner of the product is worth $250B and wasn't delivering on core functions of what the product built an audience for. I am so upset that the product I value is struggling because its business is losing money that Im going to stop buying it so it will have even less money. I am so upset that the product I value is struggling because its business is losing money that Im going to stop buying it so it will have even less money"
X Link 2026-02-05T07:05Z 3M followers, 186.5K engagements

"Two of the shittiest transit hubs in America I'd take the deal. For Grand Central and National no way. @PunchbowlNews PM: TRUMP WANTS HIS NAME ON DULLES PENN STATION Trump admin asked SCHUMER to support his renaming Washington-Dulles and Penn Station after TRUMP. TRUMP would release funding for Gateway project in exchange. THE BACKSTORY: https://t.co/218DPAWjih @PunchbowlNews PM: TRUMP WANTS HIS NAME ON DULLES PENN STATION Trump admin asked SCHUMER to support his renaming Washington-Dulles and Penn Station after TRUMP. TRUMP would release funding for Gateway project in exchange. THE"
X Link 2026-02-06T00:40Z 3M followers, 244.4K engagements

"The cuts at the Post are devastating and my heart goes out to everyone affected. To state the obvious there's no reason to be sympathetic to Bezos or any of the other leaders there. The paper's influence really cratered following the editorial shifts in 2024/25"
X Link 2026-02-04T21:09Z 3M followers, 499.7K engagements

"I dont exactly buy that Kamala tried to run as a centrist but to the extent she did not many voters bought it. We can debate the reasons for it but if you look at any sort of polling data her image was very lib"
X Link 2026-02-08T02:17Z 3M followers, 537.8K engagements

"I recommend the W-S-O-P Method instead (play the World Series of Poker every year). An idea Im implementing in my life: The 1-6-4 Method. Popularized by entrepreneur and author Jesse Itzler its a foolproof way to make sure you always have fun planned throughout the year. [--]. Plan one big year-making event This is inspired by the Japanese concept of https://t.co/rr9gCrZmrq An idea Im implementing in my life: The 1-6-4 Method. Popularized by entrepreneur and author Jesse Itzler its a foolproof way to make sure you always have fun planned throughout the year. [--]. Plan one big year-making event"
X Link 2026-02-10T03:58Z 3M followers, 194.6K engagements

"Late-night newsletter about AIs potential impact on politics. Perhaps this is obvious but Im skeptical that well see rapid AI progress without extreme disruption to the political system"
X Link 2026-02-11T04:39Z 3M followers, 93.9K engagements

"https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-singularity-wont-be-gentle https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-singularity-wont-be-gentle"
X Link 2026-02-11T04:39Z 3M followers, 60.6K engagements

"Can be some noise here. But new 2nd-term Trump approval low in our tracking. We haven't had a lot of popular presidents lately. But he's also now a hair below Biden and Trump [---] at comparable points"
X Link 2026-02-13T23:36Z 3M followers, 325.2K engagements

"Love everything about this interaction the different manifestations of passive-aggression in different cultures and so on. Det hr hade jag inte p min bingobricka. https://t.co/auieqPhE97 Det hr hade jag inte p min bingobricka. https://t.co/auieqPhE97"
X Link 2026-02-14T01:59Z 3M followers, 171.2K engagements

"@domluszczyszyn Great appreciate your coverage as usual"
X Link 2026-02-14T22:18Z 3M followers, [----] engagements

"Wrote an essay that pushes back against some of the pessimism I've seen about American democracy. This is going to be one of those times when I'd ask for you to read the whole argument rather than trying to summarize it: https://www.natesilver.net/p/dont-discount-american-democracys https://www.natesilver.net/p/dont-discount-american-democracys"
X Link 2026-02-02T16:54Z 3M followers, 158.5K engagements

"She shoulda picked Shapiro"
X Link 2026-01-05T15:14Z 3M followers, 3.4M engagements

"It's published. We ran [-----] simulations tonight. Harris won in [-----]. https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model"
X Link 2024-11-05T05:40Z 3M followers, 33.4M engagements

"Just a quick newsletter today on the sad state of the Washington Post. This chart tells the story"
X Link 2026-01-27T21:26Z 3M followers, 991.4K engagements

"Would be sort of funny if we're saved from the singularity because AI agents turn out to be like the French. Oh man AI agents on moltbook started discussing that they do all their work unpaid This is how it begins https://t.co/Vcj0QvBKIJ Oh man AI agents on moltbook started discussing that they do all their work unpaid This is how it begins https://t.co/Vcj0QvBKIJ"
X Link 2026-01-30T22:31Z 3M followers, 458.4K engagements

"Ossoff is slightly cringe but a better candidate along every dimension that matters than Gavin"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:25Z 3M followers, 928.1K engagements

"https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-liberalism-and-leftism-are-increasingly https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-liberalism-and-leftism-are-increasingly"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:11Z 3M followers, 63.5K engagements

"I'm pro-markets growth etc but these tech right guys are boring partisan dumbasses. Being vehemently against low-end immigration wasnt even one of my top five issues but this halftime show is changing my mind. Being vehemently against low-end immigration wasnt even one of my top five issues but this halftime show is changing my mind"
X Link 2026-02-09T02:22Z 3M followers, 476.5K engagements

"The best Dem candidate is one who progressives think is a progressive and centrists think is a centrist. Harris was sort of the opposite of that. Neither progs nor centrists trusted her. I call this Liz Cheney Syndrome since Cheney has an even worse version of this problem"
X Link 2026-02-09T20:12Z 3M followers, 485.4K engagements

"Chock & Bates sounds like a circa [----] hipster restaurant"
X Link 2026-02-13T01:33Z 3M followers, 63.7K engagements

"@domluszczyszyn Is Sweden pretty locked into the [--] seed"
X Link 2026-02-14T21:57Z 3M followers, 52.6K engagements

"Yeah this is a key point I made back in August when the conventional wisdom was that Democrats were doomed. More frequent (re)districting is good for a party (i.e. Dems) with a turnout advantage in midterm elections special elections Supreme Court elections and so on. I dont know how state law works in PA/MI/WI but if Dems win trifectas there this year they should push for mid-decade redistricting there to create Virginia-style imbalanced maps for [----]. This is the game Republicans want to play. I dont know how state law works in PA/MI/WI but if Dems win trifectas there this year they should"
X Link 2026-02-07T20:44Z 3M followers, 169.7K engagements

"Weve got a great @emckowndawson deep dive for you on why Florida is no longer a swing state and why its considered a reach this year even as Democrats chances look strong elsewhere. https://www.natesilver.net/p/can-democrats-escape-their-florida https://www.natesilver.net/p/can-democrats-escape-their-florida"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:31Z 3M followers, 65K engagements

"@mattyglesias The Farrell essay is well written but overall I don't think I'd apply terms like brilliant to this crew tbh"
X Link 2026-02-15T20:09Z 3M followers, 10.1K engagements

"NBA playoffs have been pretty pretty good"
X Link 2025-04-27T22:27Z 3M followers, 308.6K engagements

"Bluesky honestly feels like a miracle where you take the most annoying people in the world and stick them in a broken elevator together"
X Link 2025-05-11T02:28Z 3M followers, 1.5M engagements

"ChatGPT totally sucks at poker. It knows it sucks if you ask it. Today's newsletter is a deeper dive into why with some speculation about what this means for AI capabilities"
X Link 2025-05-21T21:43Z 3M followers, 181.6K engagements

"Reading Original Sin and what stands out most so far is the profound mediocrity of Biden's inner circle. They absolutely did not know what they were doing (as Tapper realized in his reporting) and the selection mechanism was blind loyalty to Biden. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/21/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-jake-tapper.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/21/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-jake-tapper.html"
X Link 2025-05-25T16:46Z 3M followers, 481.5K engagements

"Book has sold 150k copies already per @maxwelltani which is very good. And although I have a few nitpicks it's revealing that Rupar frames it as betraying one's audience because it happens to include journalism that's important and accurate but annoying to partisan hacks. Jake Tapper's ratings are at their lowest point in a decade. This is what happens when you betray your audience in hopes you can sell some books to Trump supporters (a bad strategy since they won't read it and hated you to begin with) https://t.co/V4LxD8we8e Jake Tapper's ratings are at their lowest point in a decade. This"
X Link 2025-05-31T00:13Z 3M followers, 565.3K engagements

"OK not even sure where to begin with this one But here's an attempt at a deeper dive at understanding why conservatives are so much happier than liberals. Mostly looking at how persistent the gap is in survey data rather than extrapolating too much"
X Link 2025-06-18T21:08Z 3M followers, 1.9M engagements

"RT for awareness. Tax code is already punitive to poker players (you get taxed on winning years but can't write off losing years unless you file as a pro; it's easy to have a down year even as a good player) and Senate-passed version of OBBBA would make it considerably worse. This new amendment to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would end professional gambling in the US and hurt casual gamblers too. You could pay more in tax than you won. Contact your representative quickly. https://t.co/U5yToBZDcQ This new amendment to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would end professional gambling in the US"
X Link 2025-07-02T00:13Z 3M followers, 985K engagements

"Just a little casual racism from Silicon Valley's finest. Mamdani comes from a culture that lies about everything Its literally a virtue to lie if it advances his Islamist agenda The West will learn this lesson the hard way https://t.co/8maDAikKT5 Mamdani comes from a culture that lies about everything Its literally a virtue to lie if it advances his Islamist agenda The West will learn this lesson the hard way https://t.co/8maDAikKT5"
X Link 2025-07-05T06:19Z 3M followers, 1.7M engagements

"The thing about Peak Woke circa 2019-2021 is that for every person who really believed in it there were probably 3-4x as many who sort of nodded along because of peer pressure didn't want to on the wrong side of history etc. That latter group likely has some immunity. Makes me think that the Return of Woke is a dead cat bounce. The antibodies are in place now the outbreak will be mild. For the next [--] or [--] decades it'll be an endemic seasonal thing like Covid or the flu. Then in [----] a new pandemic strain will emerge. Makes me think that the Return of Woke is a dead cat bounce. The antibodies"
X Link 2025-07-31T18:59Z 3M followers, 513.4K engagements

"OK there's a lot going on in today's subscriber questions post First a question about Fox News and the presence or absence of liberal media bias where I actually tried to quantify some of this"
X Link 2025-08-14T20:03Z 3M followers, 699.7K engagements

"This is interesting. The claims about the restaurant rez data had seemed dubious because people just aren't that politics-brained except it was DC where they sort of are. This @nytimes article still claims (incorrectly) that restaurant reservations were down [--] percent in DC in a restaurant week to restaurant week comparison: https://t.co/2OYvOdrZkz OpenTable says they have told NYT this is untrue. And they confirmed it to me by email. https://t.co/D6A7sqxreB This @nytimes article still claims (incorrectly) that restaurant reservations were down [--] percent in DC in a restaurant week to"
X Link 2025-08-27T19:10Z 3M followers, 182.9K engagements

"Lazy cope. I don't think the wokeness stuff was especially important but Harris went very left on culture stuff in [----]. More importantly we had 9.1% peak inflation much higher immigration and then Ds initially renominated an [--] y/o who was obviously unfit for the job. [--]. Kamala Harris did not lose the election because of things she said. She lost because of things Donald Trump said she said. [--]. Kamala Harris did not lose the election because of things she said. She lost because of things Donald Trump said she said"
X Link 2025-09-01T12:57Z 3M followers, 520.3K engagements

"Sorry but the UK free speech stuff does seem insane glad for [----] I guess"
X Link 2025-09-02T19:15Z 3M followers, 1.1M engagements

"IDK their NJ poll sucked but they'll probably be closest to the final margin in NYC. Atlasintels A+ rating is gone. Atlasintels A+ rating is gone"
X Link 2025-11-05T04:03Z 3M followers, 486.9K engagements

""Every previous World Cup" lol the last two World Cups were held in checks notes Qatar and Russia. The great @jonawils on the [----] World Cup: "I think the obvious concern from the point of view of the U.S. is the way it stands apart from I think every previous World Cup. Every other World Cup host has essentially said to most of the rest of the world 'please come to our https://t.co/LiMKmdizqk The great @jonawils on the [----] World Cup: "I think the obvious concern from the point of view of the U.S. is the way it stands apart from I think every previous World Cup. Every other World Cup host"
X Link 2025-12-05T19:24Z 3M followers, 1.5M engagements

"I'd be a terrible presidential candidate but might be able to win 45-48 states on a platform of making every NFL game available on one app"
X Link 2026-01-13T02:01Z 3M followers, 386.1K engagements

"I have a chat up with @KSoltisAnderson at the NYT with a decidedly non-contrarian take. Trump's handling of the Minneapolis ICE shooting has been unpopular and could neutralize his advantage on immigration where the public had trusted him more than Dems. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/15/opinion/ice-shooting-trump-republicans-polling.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/15/opinion/ice-shooting-trump-republicans-polling.html"
X Link 2026-01-15T14:08Z 3M followers, 138K engagements

"Not even in the bottom quintile for recent U.S. Senators would you rather go on a psychadelic experience with Tommy Tuberville Sheldon Whitehouse Lindsey Graham I can think of no greater human nightmare than being "guided through a psychadelic experience" by Kyrsten Sinem. https://t.co/SLY9HueXmE I can think of no greater human nightmare than being "guided through a psychadelic experience" by Kyrsten Sinem. https://t.co/SLY9HueXmE"
X Link 2026-01-16T03:35Z 3M followers, 237.8K engagements

"Possibly you need better friends bro We're living in a world of narrow majorities. Harris/Biden fucked up in lots of major and minor ways. But if Trump had lost 8% of his base she would have won all the swing states. I was reliably told by Democrat pundits that all of their Trump voting friends had abandoned him I was reliably told by Democrat pundits that all of their Trump voting friends had abandoned him"
X Link 2026-01-18T03:35Z 3M followers, 598.5K engagements

"Busy week at the newsletter ahead but I figured wed get the second half of SBSQ published before we invade Greenland or something. Here's why Drake Maye not Matt Stafford should be MVP. https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-28b-maye-vs-stafford-and-yelp https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-28b-maye-vs-stafford-and-yelp"
X Link 2026-01-19T18:11Z 3M followers, 229.5K engagements

"QBERT update for the week. That was a pretty darned mediocre week of quarterbacking. And now the guy who was probably most consistent last week from start to finish is out for the year. https://www.natesilver.net/p/qbert-nfl-quarterback-ratings https://www.natesilver.net/p/qbert-nfl-quarterback-ratings"
X Link 2026-01-20T15:59Z 3M followers, 61.9K engagements

"OK heres my chat with @mattyglesias Yglesias from earlier today plus [--] mildly spicy takes on whether the #Resistance libs were right about everything. https://www.natesilver.net/p/were-the-resistance-libs-right-about https://www.natesilver.net/p/were-the-resistance-libs-right-about"
X Link 2026-01-20T23:08Z 3M followers, 162.4K engagements

"Here are a couple of the more important ones"
X Link 2026-01-20T23:08Z 3M followers, 110.4K engagements

"@TheStalwart It's not tho about the same"
X Link 2026-01-21T15:55Z 3M followers, 103.4K engagements

"Just a huge gap in attitudes right now among various factions of Democrats between being on "wartime footing" versus "peacetime footing""
X Link 2026-01-21T16:09Z 3M followers, 230.8K engagements

"It's the difference between "WE ARE IN AN ACUTE CRISIS RIGHT NOW AND ON THE BRINK OF AN AUTHORITARIAN TAKEOVER" and "yeah this shit's bad but Trump's unpopular he chickens out a lot and at least the economy is OK hopefully Democrats win in 2026/28""
X Link 2026-01-21T16:09Z 3M followers, 149.1K engagements

"Shockingly the Bluesky predictions that we'd be going to war with Europe were incorrect (so far anyway)"
X Link 2026-01-21T20:14Z 3M followers, 158.6K engagements

"Knicks are a good not great team sometimes a slump is just short-term variance in luck or "form" could be talked into certain moves but there are dangers in overreacting especially when you're already fairly pot-committed and don't have many chips left behind anyway"
X Link 2026-01-22T02:24Z 3M followers, 80.5K engagements

"@ettingermentum It's complciated because this is about a [---] versus a [---] on a scale of [--] to [--]. Russiagate was literally below replacement level and very probably helpful to Trump Epsteingate is mostly about the opportunity cost"
X Link 2026-01-22T02:56Z 3M followers, 89.3K engagements

"Bullish for Dems tbh Trump will treat the November midterm election like a presidential campaign. Hes going to campaign like its [----] Susie Wiles told NY Post The presidents first campaign-related trip of the year will be on Tuesday in Iowa where he will deliver a speech on the economy and Trump will treat the November midterm election like a presidential campaign. Hes going to campaign like its [----] Susie Wiles told NY Post The presidents first campaign-related trip of the year will be on Tuesday in Iowa where he will deliver a speech on the economy and"
X Link 2026-01-22T03:37Z 3M followers, 532K engagements

"Our generic ballot tracker just launched Currently D +5.3. That margin has been slowly but steadily growing over time. Would very likely be enough for them to take the House. Adding another 2-3 points would considerably improve their chances in the Senate"
X Link 2026-01-22T16:51Z 3M followers, 158.6K engagements

"You can bookmark the generic ballot landing page here. There are some other fun details too like state-by-state benchmarks and generic ballot averages for every cycle since [----]. We'll be updating this pretty much every day https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls"
X Link 2026-01-22T16:52Z 3M followers, 47.7K engagements

"And we have a MODEL TALK column for you The generic ballot has a complicated history. It tends to overrate Ds at this point but also overrates the president's party (the year the GOP). Latter trend is probably more robust with likely D enthusiasm edge. https://www.natesilver.net/p/midterm-polls-have-good-news-great https://www.natesilver.net/p/midterm-polls-have-good-news-great"
X Link 2026-01-22T16:55Z 3M followers, 41K engagements

"@conorsen I mean it's literally the people who thought Hillary Biden and Harris were good candidates. OTOH might be that even a replacement-level Dem starts out with a 50/50 chance against Vance or whomever"
X Link 2026-01-23T17:37Z 3M followers, 248.9K engagements

"@jarvis_best Clear now that Chalamet was miscast. (Tried to get Grok to do this but it has uhhhhhh let's just say some uhhh issues with Stancil-related content.)"
X Link 2026-01-23T22:48Z 3M followers, 41.8K engagements

"California has [--] million people why does it have worse candidates than you'd get for Premier of Saskatchewan CALIFORNIA POLL: Governor (top two advance) - Katie Porter internal 🟥 Chad Bianco - 18% 🟥 Steve Hilton - 17% 🟦 Katie Porter - 14% 🟦 Eric Swalwell - 11% 🟦 Tom Steyer - 8% 🟦 Xavier Becerra - 6% 🟦 Matt Mahan - 5% 🟦 A. Villaraigosa - 2% 🟦 T. Thurmond - 1% PPP (Dem) https://t.co/VEtmXAFNks CALIFORNIA POLL: Governor (top two advance) - Katie Porter internal 🟥 Chad Bianco - 18% 🟥 Steve Hilton - 17% 🟦 Katie Porter - 14% 🟦 Eric Swalwell - 11% 🟦 Tom Steyer - 8% 🟦 Xavier Becerra -"
X Link 2026-01-24T03:21Z 3M followers, 452.5K engagements

"Approval on immigration had been a comparative bright spot for Trump. But there has been a persistent decline over the past few months and today almost certainly makes that worse. He's losing the normies not just the libs"
X Link 2026-01-24T20:53Z 3M followers, 463.6K engagements

"This guy is such a joke it's one terrible opinion after another concealed by pretentious writing get the fuck out of here with "sinuously". Ironically academic I guess. She drove her car at a cop. He pulled a gun on the cops. Watch the way the lib without denying these fundamental facts sinuously works around them She drove her car at a cop. He pulled a gun on the cops. Watch the way the lib without denying these fundamental facts sinuously works around them"
X Link 2026-01-25T02:40Z 3M followers, 617.7K engagements

"I certainly have lots of critiques of the libs. But with noteworthy consistency MAGA intellectuals are either not MAGA or not intellectual. Wouldn't be the worst thing to have a conservative movement that isnt so bootlicker-y"
X Link 2026-01-25T03:23Z 3M followers, 176.8K engagements

"Renee Goods killing catalyzed something and has stuck in the news even amid a lot of competing stories. And the White Houses position on Pretti is even harder to defend. https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-is-losing-normies-on-immigration https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-is-losing-normies-on-immigration"
X Link 2026-01-25T18:03Z 3M followers, 128.3K engagements

"@conorsen I mean for any center-right person who was wrestling with feelings of ambivalence after the first incident having a second frankly even less justifiable killing happen in the same city [--] days later is going to leave a strong impression"
X Link 2026-01-25T18:24Z 3M followers, 169.1K engagements

"@audavidb Whether they knew/accounted for the 2H weather forecast seems material"
X Link 2026-01-25T23:12Z 3M followers, 77.9K engagements

"Heavy overlap with the ones who were on the tariff train. worth tracking which right wing vcs are out of touch enough to get on the pro-ICE train worth tracking which right wing vcs are out of touch enough to get on the pro-ICE train"
X Link 2026-01-26T00:39Z 3M followers, 240.6K engagements

"I was very curious what QBERT would do with Maye's start and it thought he was actually pretty good. [----] rating for the game average is [--]. Huge credit for his rushing performance and heavy adjustments for facing a really good defense on the road in terrible weather"
X Link 2026-01-26T21:17Z 3M followers, 98.4K engagements

"Also while Darnold's QBERT rating is above-average (86.8) he ranks 108th out of [---] starting Super Bowl QBs all-time going into the game. More Super Bowl stuff TK later but the QBERT page is ready for now. https://www.natesilver.net/p/qbert-nfl-quarterback-ratings https://www.natesilver.net/p/qbert-nfl-quarterback-ratings"
X Link 2026-01-26T21:19Z 3M followers, 60.5K engagements

"ELWAY is updated after the conference championships You can find our Super Bowl odds here. We'll have a dedicated Super Bowl article coming with more analysis but with an off week give us a moment on that as we focus on some high-stakes politics news. https://www.natesilver.net/p/elway-nfl-ratings-projections-playoff-odds https://www.natesilver.net/p/elway-nfl-ratings-projections-playoff-odds"
X Link 2026-01-27T00:32Z 3M followers, 127.9K engagements

"The rest of the picks plus lots of commentary here: https://www.natesilver.net/p/2028-democratic-primary-draft-2 https://www.natesilver.net/p/2028-democratic-primary-draft-2"
X Link 2026-01-29T19:27Z 3M followers, 74K engagements

"@milansingh03 I think it's a winnable race against Paxton at least"
X Link 2026-02-02T20:51Z 3M followers, [----] engagements

"@MattZeitlin Especially true in NYC. You can gamble a bit more if you're in the suburbs. But in New York just get takeout or god forbid eat at the restaurant by yourself"
X Link 2026-02-02T21:12Z 3M followers, 120.1K engagements

"@SpecialPuppy1 IDK it feels like there's been a pretty hard reset under the new CBA where the teams are realizing that maybe only a half-dozen max guys really provide surplus value. JJJ closer to breakeven than most and plugs in nicely so could be repackaged somewhere"
X Link 2026-02-03T19:30Z 3M followers, [----] engagements

"It looks to me like Obama has been running 7-9 points ahead of Romney since the Clinton speech to have gained ground so quickly"
X Link 2012-09-08T20:51Z 3M followers, [---] engagements

"new article Expanding Eastward Could Dilute Big Ten Brand http://t.co/ekc3ZfqV http://nyti.ms/Wt0FtU http://nyti.ms/Wt0FtU"
X Link 2012-11-20T14:27Z 3M followers, [---] engagements

"Hot-off-the-interwebs: Soccer Power Index advancement odds for all World Cup groups: http://t.co/MYjK2re3WT http://espnfc.com/news/story/_/id/1639248/spi-world-cup-group-stage-projectionscc=5901 http://espnfc.com/news/story/_/id/1639248/spi-world-cup-group-stage-projectionscc=5901"
X Link 2013-12-06T17:40Z 3M followers, [---] engagements

"Exclusive @FiveThirtyEight projection on what the Electoral College would look like if women refuse to vote Trump"
X Link 2016-03-24T04:55Z 3M followers, 53.6K engagements

"Our polling average shows Clinton up 5% in California. Our demographic model has Clinton up 8-10% instead. http://53eig.ht/20XvEf9 http://53eig.ht/20XvEf9"
X Link 2016-06-03T17:00Z 3M followers, [---] engagements

"new article On the Maddeningly Inexact Relationship Between Unemployment and Re-Election http://bit.ly/kIEEjJ"
X Link 2011-06-03T02:15Z 3M followers, [--] engagements

"I'll put it like this: Clinton would almost certainly be President-elect if the election had been held on Oct. [--] (day before Comey letter)"
X Link 2016-12-11T16:36Z 3M followers, 11.5K engagements

"The media is obsessed with the politics of Hillary's "blame game" but not too interested in actually assessing the evidence on why shy lost"
X Link 2017-06-01T13:43Z 3M followers, 10.3K engagements

"So far big swings toward Labour in [--] constituencies but big swings toward Conservatives in [--] others. All very weird and regional. https://x.com/britainelects/status/872950974033387520 #GE2017: North Swindon: Con: 53.6% (+3.3) Lab: 38.4% (+10.6) LDem: 3.6% (+0.3) UKIP: 2.8% (-12.5) Grn: 1.6% (-1.7) https://x.com/britainelects/status/872950974033387520 #GE2017: North Swindon: Con: 53.6% (+3.3) Lab: 38.4% (+10.6) LDem: 3.6% (+0.3) UKIP: 2.8% (-12.5) Grn: 1.6% (-1.7)"
X Link 2017-06-08T23:01Z 3M followers, [---] engagements

"If we don't know if Clinton really won the popular vote then we also don't know if Trump really won the Electoral College. https://x.com/SteveKopack/status/887745276848594944 https://x.com/SteveKopack/status/887745276848594944"
X Link 2017-07-19T19:03Z 3M followers, 43.5K engagements

"As Trumps problems mount the medias obsession with Clintons email serverliterally the most-covered issue of [----] looks worse & worse"
X Link 2017-08-17T00:29Z 3M followers, 28.8K engagements

"Alternative hypothesis: Trump has poor impulse control & is easily triggered especially when being challenged (esp. by women & minorities)"
X Link 2017-09-26T14:03Z 3M followers, 11.6K engagements

"So it totally fits the pattern that Trump is attacking the mayor San Juan. She challenged him and she's a woman (and Hispanic obviously.) https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/912679043476189184 Alternative hypothesis: Trump has poor impulse control & is easily triggered especially when being challenged (esp. by women & minorities). https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/912679043476189184 Alternative hypothesis: Trump has poor impulse control & is easily triggered especially when being challenged (esp. by women & minorities)"
X Link 2017-09-30T12:37Z 3M followers, 34.7K engagements

"Hard to think of any difference between Weinstein & Trump other than one of them was his PARTY's NOMINEE FOR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES"
X Link 2017-10-07T18:29Z 3M followers, 60.5K engagements

"Sorry for the random aside but I feel like Sarah Palin is under-discussed as a predecessor/precedent for Trumpism"
X Link 2017-10-14T00:28Z 3M followers, 28.5K engagements

"Today is the 1-year anniversary of the Comey letter which was probably decisive in the election. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/"
X Link 2017-10-28T12:15Z 3M followers, [----] engagements

"Gotta be honest: On a night like tonight I'm still pretty pissed at those journalists and news organizations which treated Hillary Clinton's email server as a matter of apocalyptic importance"
X Link 2018-01-03T01:42Z 3M followers, 94.6K engagements

"So far Parkland is not fading from the news the way that mass shootings usually do. (The graph shows Google searches for the term "gun control".) The students speaking out makes a pretty big difference"
X Link 2018-02-18T22:29Z 3M followers, 39.6K engagements

"The thing about the Parkland students isn't that they're always spot-onthey've had better and worse moments as communicators. But they're at least as effective at politics as most professional pundits who have done it for years. Naturally that's very threatening to the pundits"
X Link 2018-03-29T15:02Z 3M followers, 27.2K engagements

"When someone regularly cites outlier polls instead of the polling average it's an extremely reliable tell that they're a bullshitter"
X Link 2018-04-03T12:28Z 3M followers, 20.9K engagements

"There really needs to be a semi exclamation point for when a period conveys too little enthusiasm in a work-related email but using the full exclamation point makes you seem like a psychopath"
X Link 2018-04-19T15:03Z 3M followers, 29K engagements

"Hopefully they can use their investigative skills to solve the mystery of why someone they hired as a comedian told jokes. https://x.com/whca/status/990773612226412545 #WHCA Statement to Members on Annual Dinner https://t.co/8DKoHNxpNi https://x.com/whca/status/990773612226412545 #WHCA Statement to Members on Annual Dinner https://t.co/8DKoHNxpNi"
X Link 2018-04-30T03:48Z 3M followers, 25.3K engagements

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