@Monetaryguy589 Monetary McFly 🪰
Monetary McFly 🪰 posts on X about fed, money, federal reserve, balance sheet the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
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Social Influence
Social category influence finance cryptocurrencies countries stocks currencies celebrities technology brands exchanges travel destinations automotive brands
Social topic influence fed, money, federal reserve, balance sheet, stablecoins #16, bank, debt, liquidity, in the, reserve
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @peruvianbull @dariocpx @financelancelot @lukegromen @yieldsearcher @judyshel @dapstats @ripple @mcsqueezythecow @elonmusk @realejantoni @derivativesdon @subjectiveviews @chadsteingraber @xrpwallets @realdonaldtrump @caitlinlong @kshaughnessy2 @vetx0 @barchart
Top assets mentioned Reserve (RSV) XRP (XRP) GrokCoin (GROKCOIN)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Securities Brokers are now holding the Largest short position ever in Corporate and Government Securities - over $700 Million🤨 🔵Corporate Bonds 🟢Agency and GSE Backed 🟣 U.S. Treasuries @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-06-17T22:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Aureliusltd28 @zerohedge Dont forget the unrealized losses on the Reserve Deposits themselves 👆 (recall those are just allocated Securities from the Feds balance sheet)"
X Link 2024-06-27T04:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Once again a significant RRP spike to end the quarter👇"
X Link 2024-06-28T19:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Most people dont realize it but behind the scenes the level of pullback within Commercial Banking system related to Unused CRE Construction Loan Commitments 🟣 and Unused Unsecured CRE Lines of Credit 🟠 are already starting to eclipse totals from [----] 1Q FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile 👇 @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-06-29T17:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@TheUltimator5 Im sure it does. The last day of each quarter has a large spike - which I assume is quarter end balance sheet cleanup so to speak 🤷♂"
X Link 2024-06-29T17:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Infinitynova131 Proper management of the TGA flows back into RRP is the Key 🔑"
X Link 2024-07-02T18:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"The Green in the chart below represents the weekly amount of Cash Assets in Commercial Banks that are 'Not' Reserve Deposits with Federal Reserve Banks. This would consist of Currency and Deposits Due from other non-Central Banks. I like to think of this as the "spendable" liquidity in the Banking system. Spendable on things like Operating expenses Dividends Set asides for Loan losses and Interest on Borrowings. Banks can't "spend" their Reserve deposits👎 The Yellow in the chart represents the amount of weekly interest payments that are owed by the Commercial Banks on money they have"
X Link 2024-07-02T19:39Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"H.6 Money Stock Measures - June [----] M1 and M2 Money Supply - and Components🚨 Some cool visuals to better understand M1 and M2 - and where we are currently seeing changes occur M1 Components: 🔴Currency 🟠Demand Deposits 🟢Other Liquid Deposits (f.k.a. Checking (M1) and Savings (M2) - see Reg D changes in April [----] M2 Components: 🔵Retail Money Market Funds 🟣Small Time Deposits ("CD's") When we run this same data on a year over year basis we get some funky charts due to the change in definitions of Checking and Savings in April [----] But when we zoom in for the last [--] years it gives us a"
X Link 2024-07-03T01:25Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@CDemanincor Someone else needs to create a large and liquid Bond market that other people want to save in. Until then dollars will be the more desirable of the fiat currencies as reserves perhaps 🤷♂"
X Link 2024-07-03T06:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@MetaLawMan Wouldn't something similar apply in the FHLBanks system if it applies in the Federal Reserve System ☝"
X Link 2024-07-03T22:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The Federal Government's Budget - Visualized 🚨 The Federal Government collects🟢Taxes and Spends money🟡 - lots of it. Unfortunately for decades now the Government has been Spending more than they have been collecting and so they have been running a deficit (well [--] really) The first is called "Government Saving: Social Insurance Fund"🔴. Effectively this is how they are robbing from the future Social programs to pay for the current ones. Existing S.S. Tax receipts are insufficient. The next is called "Government Saving: Other (ex. Social Insurance")🟠. This is when the Government spends more"
X Link 2024-07-04T21:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Koge19 @peruvian_bull @federalreserve On the bright side the $175Billion of Remittance Payments owed by the Fed to the Treasury (the Citizens) has now grown to such a large amount it is acting as stealth QE on the Feds Balance sheet - offsetting what otherwise would have be $175Billion of additional QT 🤷♂"
X Link 2024-07-05T22:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"1Q [----] FDIC Banking Report Update🚨 For Banks the cost of paying Interest on their customer Deposits Borrowing Money from each other and the FHLBanks and Provisioning for potential Loan Losses and ensuing Charge Offs hit a record high of $180.1 Billion in the 1Q of [----] Unlike [----] the majority of the cost to date are still centered around Interest on Deposits🔵(Domestic and Foreign) as well as the Interest costs on various forms of Borrowing:🟢Fed Funds🟣Notes and Bonds🟡Trading Liabilities and Other Borrowed Money (FHLBanks BTFP Primary Credit) The question is what does this chart start to"
X Link 2024-07-06T00:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"🟠Full Time Employment YoY 🟣Part Time Employment YoY Historically speaking YoY decreases in Full Time employment coupled with YoY increases in Part Time Employment meant we had already been in a recession for several months by that point in time 🫠 @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-07-06T05:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@k0nfuciu5 @KobeissiLetter They already did fully embrace regulated stable coms in the EU and Circle just minted $200M worth of USDC today. Im assuming as we move forward most of this Treasury collateral will be on chain as well - so it interacts with these stable coins 🤷♂"
X Link 2024-07-06T07:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"If you are interested in the Money Supply you need to understand the Components 👇 H.6 Money Stock Measures - June [----] M1 and M2 Money Supply - and Components🚨 Some cool visuals to better understand M1 and M2 - and where we are currently seeing changes occur M1 Components: 🔴Currency 🟠Demand Deposits 🟢Other Liquid Deposits (f.k.a. Checking (M1) and https://t.co/fZzfqCFlOQ H.6 Money Stock Measures - June [----] M1 and M2 Money Supply - and Components🚨 Some cool visuals to better understand M1 and M2 - and where we are currently seeing changes occur M1 Components: 🔴Currency 🟠Demand"
X Link 2024-07-06T17:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"One of the best ways to look into the future of CRE Loans at Commerical Banks is to track the changes in their Unused Loan Commitments for Commerical Real Estate Lines 🟠(which are likely new Construction Loan commitments to build new projects👌). Unused Commitments are "off Balance sheet" for the Banks - as they don't book have to book these Commitments as increases in CRE Loans until they actually fund the dollars to the Borrower sometime later in the future. FDIC tracks Unused Commitments quarterly with the most recent still being 1Q 2024🤨 In a similar vein if we see decreases in these"
X Link 2024-07-07T02:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet - Visualized 🚨 The chart below represents the major categories of Assets and Liabilities of the Federal Reserve from the weekly H.4 Fed Statistics Assets (+) are on the Top 🔵Emergency Central Bank Swaps 🔴Emergency Loans to Banks 🟡Treasuries and MBS Liabilities (-) are on the Bottom 🩶Currency in Circulation 🟢Reserve Balances "apportioned securities" 🔵Domestic and Foreign RRP 🟠Treasury General Account ⚫Earnings Remittances (Losses) due to the Citizens Both halves of the chart should "mirror" each other if the balance sheet is balanced👌 Zooming in on"
X Link 2024-07-07T21:30Z [---] followers, 13.1K engagements
"Today we had another $100M Repo drawdown - I bring this up because this is unusual for a Tuesday. Repo is when Banks need to borrow emergency Cash from the Federal Reserve "temporarily". Banks pledge securities as collateral to borrow these Funds. Banks have multiple places where they can pledge Securities and Borrow cash. When they are using the Fed instead it could signal weakness in the market or a specific participant. The increase in the frequency of $100M drawdowns over the last couple of months is concerning - but the interesting thing is they have occurred primary on Thursdays"
X Link 2024-07-09T19:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@DarioCpx FDIC 1Q Interest Expenses and with Loss provisions/Charge-offs. Imaging the graph when the Reserves 🟠 and Charge offs🔴 are finally acknowledged 🤔 https://x.com/monetaryguy589/status/1809378934011973839s=46&t=XwvAw4MOQwdkNjV87OEvUg 1Q [----] FDIC Banking Report Update🚨 For Banks the cost of paying Interest on their customer Deposits Borrowing Money from each other and the FHLBanks and Provisioning for potential Loan Losses and ensuing Charge Offs hit a record high of $180.1 Billion in the 1Q of [----] https://t.co/AhEEKwa050"
X Link 2024-07-12T14:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Bank Reserves are allocated Treasuries from the Fed's SOMA portfolio - they are not Cash Tokenizing Reserve Deposits and the offsetting Securities on the Fed's Balance sheet will be mandatory for intrabank settlement across the globe Whether or not you call it a CBDC depends on your understanding of Bank Reserves vs. Cash 🤷♂"
X Link 2024-07-12T15:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Reverse Repo Week in Review 🚨 🔵The Fed's RRP operations ended the week of July 12th with $407 Billion in total allotment Take-Up 🔴This was a $13 Billion reduction from last Friday's ending balance @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-07-12T18:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"It absolutely is. In fact here is a graphical representation of how Negative Remittance Liabilities🔴are being carried on the Balance sheet and directly offsetting the Securities they have QT'd 🟡 This graph is Year on year changes of Assets (+) and Liabilities (-) $103 Billion of Accrued Remittances losses over the last year has allowed for the same amount of QT to occur without directly impacting Bank Reserves🤷♂"
X Link 2024-07-12T22:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: Week in Review🚨 This week was not a very active week on the Fed's Balance sheet - with less than $30B in total liability maneuvers Weekly "Sources and Uses" of Capital The TGA decreased $23B (🟠Liability ) The Foreign RRP decreased $4B (🔵Liability) Negative Earnings Remittances $2B (⚫Liability ) We removed $2B worth of Currency (🩶Liability ) Loans and Repo increased $100M (🔴Asset) Bank Reserves increased $19B (🟢 Liability ) Domestic RRP increased $14B (🔵Liability) There was only $200M of Securities QT this week (🟡Asset ) The Federal Reserve's Balance"
X Link 2024-07-12T23:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Emergency Bank Borrowings 🚨- two very different stories they probably want us to forget about. 📚 Top Chart: Incremental Bank Borrowings🔴(LHS) and Fed Funds Rate🟣(RHS): This covers the time from the Fed's reintroduction of QT and rate increases in March [----] through Current - starting at $1.6 Trillion in Borrowings Bottom Chart: Incremental Bank Borrowings🔴(LHS) and Fed Funds Rate🟣(RHS): This covers the time from the Fed's rate cuts leading into the GFC in Aug [----] through Nov [----] - starting at $2.35 Trillion in Borrowings Observations: Top: From Mar [--] [----] - Mar [--] [----] as the Fed"
X Link 2024-07-13T05:31Z [----] followers, 16.1K engagements
"The account called Remittances Due to the Treasury is the account where the Fed (in the past) paid out excess profits from RRP operations back to the Treasury. This account is carried as a Liability on the Fed's Balance sheet - "Remittances due to the Treasury" Unfortunately when the Fed offers the RRP at massive losses just to prop up their MMF buddies then they start to accrue losses on these RRP positions. The only thing I could think of to call these accruing losses on these liabilities was "negative remittance liability" The point is not what it's called but that this Liability account"
X Link 2024-07-13T05:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This is what life looks like for the Small Domestic Banks currently compared to [----] 👇 Small in the H.8 Statistics is defined as not in the Top [---] Banks by Assets - so greater than $150B Some people forget that the Fed started lowering rates well before Lehman - so when the 💩 started hitting the 🪭the incremental Emergency borrowing costs werent likely an issue 🔴Borrowings 🟡Cost of Borrowings @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-07-13T06:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Some interesting visuals for those of you tracking the Feds Balance sheet activities 👇 Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: Week in Review🚨 This week was not a very active week on the Fed's Balance sheet - with less than $30B in total liability maneuvers Weekly "Sources and Uses" of Capital The TGA decreased $23B (🟠Liability ) The Foreign RRP decreased $4B https://t.co/HA4CLUlEbD Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: Week in Review🚨 This week was not a very active week on the Fed's Balance sheet - with less than $30B in total liability maneuvers Weekly "Sources and Uses" of Capital The TGA decreased"
X Link 2024-07-13T17:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@DigPerspectives @fiatleak is working again woot"
X Link 2024-07-16T15:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Maneuvers 🚨 This week the total activity across the Feds balance sheet was approximately $60 Billion consisting of the following maneuvers Foreign and Domestic RRP decreased $31.2 Billion (🔵 Liability ) Bank Reserve Balances decreased $18.6 Billion (🟢Liability ) Currency in circulation decreased $5.6 Billion (🩶 Liability ) Remittance Losses increased $1.1 Billion (⚫ Liability ) Credit Facilities and Loans decreased $2.8 Billion (🔴 Asset ) Securities and MBS "Q.T." totaled $14.6 Billion (🟡Asset ) Janet replenished the TGA by $44.5 Billion (🟠Liability ) Each week"
X Link 2024-07-18T22:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Crowdstrike down 👇 🚨🌎 Microsoft Software Failure This is what it looks like on many computers around the World right now Just enough reason to reject Digital ID & any other Bill Gates related product which is liable to completely malfunction at any given time. https://t.co/1gkQ6vGBK2 🚨🌎 Microsoft Software Failure This is what it looks like on many computers around the World right now Just enough reason to reject Digital ID & any other Bill Gates related product which is liable to completely malfunction at any given time. https://t.co/1gkQ6vGBK2"
X Link 2024-07-19T06:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Weekly RRP Update 🚨 🔵The Fed's RRP allotment ended the week with $379.8 Billion of take up. 🔴This represents a $15.4 Billion decrease from last week"
X Link 2024-07-19T18:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"For those tracking moves at the Federal Reserve I offer this visual weekly Balance Sheet update 👇 @peruvian_bull @DarioCpx Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Maneuvers 🚨 This week the total activity across the Feds balance sheet was approximately $60 Billion consisting of the following maneuvers Foreign and Domestic RRP decreased $31.2 Billion (🔵 Liability ) Bank Reserve Balances decreased $18.6 https://t.co/6lcQDW1kEv Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Maneuvers 🚨 This week the total activity across the Feds balance sheet was approximately $60 Billion consisting of the following maneuvers Foreign and"
X Link 2024-07-19T23:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The Interdistrict Settlement Account - ISA🚨 The ISA is an Asset that sits on the Balance Sheet of each of the [--] individual Reserve Banks. Daily balance sheet activity across the Federal Reserve System's ISA accounts always nets to "zero" Historically the ISA was where intra-bank settlement foreign currency swaps and new Currency creation would occur. In fact if you go back far enough we still used Currency for settlement😉 In theory post [----] the ISA is also where Reserves and other HQLA trades and financing could occur as well. This honestly doesn't likely happen too often because having"
X Link 2024-07-20T22:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Translated. there was no particular reason for the last cut and so were not doing anything until we see if the Fed has to cut theirs first 🤷♂ We decided to keep interest rates unchanged because we will have more information in September Vice-President Luis de Guindos tells @europapress. It will be crucial to see that inflation is steadily converging towards 2% over the medium term https://t.co/6t15ECqpGJ https://t.co/WDcTjfrJpX We decided to keep interest rates unchanged because we will have more information in September Vice-President Luis de Guindos tells @europapress. It will be crucial"
X Link 2024-07-23T06:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Comparing the Borrowings of Domestic Banks - H.8 vs FDIC Insured Banks🚨 1H.8 Borrowings Each week Federal reserve posts their H.8 Banking statistics. These are broken down by Domestic Banks and Foreign Banks. Within the H.8 statistics there is a category called "Borrowings" - with no definition🤔 We are left to assume this means the various forms of Borrowings that Commercial Banks engage in with the FHLBanks the Federal Reserve the Federal Funds markets the public Bond and Commercial Paper markets etc. The Chart below highlights⚫Total Borrowings of Commercial Banks🔵Domestic Bank (large and"
X Link 2024-07-24T00:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"For those tracking the Federal Reserve and their various Emergency lending facilities I offer the following visual covering the last [--] years. Currently Outstanding as of 7.24.24: 🟠Bank Term Funding Program: $102.41 Billion 🟣Primary Credit: $6.75 Billion + $68M Seasonal 🟢PPP Facility: $2.72 Billion 🩶MS Lending Facility $10.9 Billion 🟡Central Bank Liquidity Swaps: $159 Million @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-07-26T00:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@CaitlinLong_ @SenLummis Move it to Feds balance sheet as asset and then have Fed reapportion into Banking system as part of Bank reserves Then at least all citizens will benefit from something other than just IOUs backing their Deposits 👌"
X Link 2024-07-27T21:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Give the confiscated BTC back to the people by putting it on the Feds balance sheet as an Asset and then apportioning it down to the Commercial banks as part of their daily Reserve balances This will allow the BTC to to partially and proportionately back all of the Citizens deposits 👌"
X Link 2024-07-28T00:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"For those interested in how Treasury Securities on the Feds Balance Sheet turn into Bank Reserves in our Commercial Banks you need to understand the Interdistrict Settlement Accounts of the [--] Reserve Banks 👇 @peruvian_bull The Interdistrict Settlement Account - ISA🚨 The ISA is an Asset that sits on the Balance Sheet of each of the [--] individual Reserve Banks. Daily balance sheet activity across the Federal Reserve System's ISA accounts always nets to "zero" Historically the ISA was where https://t.co/bji1xn2XDP The Interdistrict Settlement Account - ISA🚨 The ISA is an Asset that sits on"
X Link 2024-07-28T21:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TheUltimator5 District [--] NY Fed acts as agent for the [--] Reserve Banks. More than 55% of all Reserve Deposits are allocated to the NY Fed. The Treasury General Account also sits on the Balance sheet of the NY Fed 👌"
X Link 2024-07-28T22:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"New York District [--] Visual Balance Sheet 🚨 - the "Agent" of the Federal Reserve Bank System Assets (+) - top half Liabilities (-) - bottom half Assets and Liabilities should Mirror each other🪞 Assets: 🟠The main Asset on the Balance Sheet of the NY Fed District [--] (and all reserve Banks) is a single line item that consists of its "apportioned" Assets. These include: "Securities Premiums and Discounts Repurchase Agreements and Loans" The Securities allocation is derived from District 2's daily "allotment" of the Fed's System Open Market Account (SOMA) balances - which currently consists of"
X Link 2024-07-29T01:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Reserve Deposit Balances of the [--] Federal Reserve Banks🚨 Prior to [----] our Banking system was easily able to operate with Reserve Deposit Balances in the $15 to $30 Billion Range. Back then Reserves were a portion of a Banks Cash Assets - today they are apportioned Securities from the Fed's Balance sheet. Looking at the flow of Reserve Deposits across the different Districts on a Year over Year basis highlights some interesting things. These annual allocations are a function of each district's Currency on hand and changes in Commercial Bank assets relative to all [--] districts. For instance"
X Link 2024-07-29T02:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The concept of illiquid Securities as Reserves and the gaslighting they do to the people around their Resiliency is ridiculous Banks not only need to MTM their Securities Assets but also their Cash Assets - at least the part of Cash Assets that consists of the Reserve Deposits"
X Link 2024-07-29T02:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@CryptoManXRP69 @xrp187 @JoelKatz At least he was doin the work for us 🤷♂"
X Link 2024-07-29T04:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Large Banks vs. Small Banks - The Credit Situation 📚 Some visual representation of Loans and Leases in Credit vs. Securities in Credit from the weekly H.8 Federal Reserve Statistics Large Banks $150 Billion in Assets - Top [--] Yearly increases in total ⚫Credit as of late are simply due to increases in Securities in Credit - consisting of Treasury Securities - and believe it or not even Mortgage-Backed securities🤔 🟢Loans and Leases - actual "Credit" as we think of it - on a YoY basis is flat to non-existent for the Large Banks- and has even gone negative recently. 🟡Securities in Credit on"
X Link 2024-07-29T06:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Notwithstanding your GME correlation I have been tracking this Secured Inversion for the last month and trying to get some feedback (SOFR borrower 🙋♂) Collateral shortages perhaps causing premiums in the centrally cleared markets Dealers holding onto Treasuries 🟡Unsecured volumes are stable - so its just the SOFR financings - which are spiking and at a premium 🤔 Borrowing Unsecured should never be cheaper than Borrowing Secured 🤡 What is going on in the Overnight Markets that is causing this continual inversion in Secured vs. Unsecured rates for the last month @concodanomics"
X Link 2024-07-30T02:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Visualized 🚨 From the weekly H.4 Federal Reserve statistics I offer the following visualizations of the major Assets and Liabilities of the Federal Reserve When the Assets and Liabilities are balanced the visual will "mirror"🪞 Assets (+) 🟣Central Bank Liquidity Swaps Loans and Credit Facilities Repurchase Agreements 🟡Treasury and Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities acquired through Quantitative Easing Liabilities (-) 🟢Currency in Circulation (mostly outside U.S) 🩶The Reserve Balances the Fed has allocated to our Commercial Banking system 🟠Treasury"
X Link 2024-07-31T00:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ITMTrading Now do the Treasury Securities on the Feds Balance Sheet as this is what backs the Bank Reserves themselves 👌 They need to MTM Securities Assets AND the Reserve Balance component of their Cash Assets as well 🫣"
X Link 2024-07-31T02:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Federal Reserve Emergency Lending Facilities 🚨 🟠Central Bank Liquidity Swaps: Trading US dollars to foreign Central Banks in exchange for their local currencies 🔵Repurchase Agreements: Loaning US dollars to Domestic Banks secured by some of the Banks Treasury collateral and the agreement for the Bank to Repurchase the Treasury collateral at a later date 🔴Loans Liquidity and Credit Facilities: This includes Commercial Banks Borrowing US dollars through Primary Secondary and Seasonal Credit; the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) the Paycheck Protection Program and Other Credit Extensions"
X Link 2024-08-01T20:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Cash Liquidity in the Banking system - and the concept that Bank Reserves can be created by the Fed - has caused dramatic changes in our Banking liquidity since [----]. Bank Reserves are no longer Cash they are simply allocated Securities from the Feds SOMA portfolio I would argue the Banks are significantly less liquid today 🤔 Here is the proof 👇 Cash Assets vs. Reserves 🚨 "Bank Reserves" are not what you think🤔 Top Chart: 🟢Cash Assets of Commercial Banks H.8 🟡Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks H.4 (also see chart notes) Bottom Charts: 1Cash Assets in Excess (or less than)"
X Link 2024-08-01T21:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Fed Balance Sheet Week in Review 🚨 This week was another low volume week for the Fed with only $50 Billion in Liability maneuvers The Fed drained $47 Billion from Bank Reserves (🟢Liability ) but without a full counterbalancing of other Liabilities or Assets. There was an increase in Foreign RRP (🔵Liability ) but a very small decrease in ON RRP The Fed QT'd $3.7 Billion in MBS this week(🟡Asset ) but also had a small $173 Million increase in Treasury Securities🤔 The Fed destroyed $2.7 Billion in Currency this week (🩶Liability ) As is the case lately the Fed also accrued another $1.7"
X Link 2024-08-01T23:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Secured and Unsecured Overnight Lending Volumes 🚨 🟠Secured Federal Reserve ON RRP - $413 Billion 🟢Secured SOFR Financing Volume - $2.185 Trillion 🔵Unsecured Bank Rate Volume - $220 Billion"
X Link 2024-08-01T23:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"July Unemployment Stats 🚨 🟠Unemployment Level: [----] million Workers 🔵Unemployment Rate: 4.3% 🔴Real Time SAHM Rule: .53 - Recession Triggered"
X Link 2024-08-02T15:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@peruvian_bull When does Fed do emergency cut"
X Link 2024-08-02T21:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@JackInabinet Wait until the results from today show up on Mondays chart Its almost like the Fed gets forced to react to the Market - and not the other way around 🤫"
X Link 2024-08-03T02:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This is YOY Fed Balance Sheet with Assets (+) and Liabilities (-) stacked From this view we can see what changes are occurring over time on the Feds Balance sheet For instance its pretty easy to see that decreases in the Reverse Repo (🔵 Liability ) coupled with accruing balances on the earnings remittance losses (⚫Liability ) is how the Fed has been managing to refill Bank Reserves (🟢Liability ) keep the Governments TGA flush (🟠Liability ) and QT some Securities along the way (🟡 Asset )"
X Link 2024-08-03T18:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Federal Reserve Securities Assets Loans and RRP Liability as of July 31st [----] - organized by maturity date 👌"
X Link 2024-08-04T01:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"For the crazy ones tracking the Federal Reserve's Treasury and Mortgage-Backed Securities Assets I offer the following weekly visuals stacked by Maturity Dates and with changes on a YoY basis ⚫As a bonus I also included the offsetting Reverse Repurchase Agreement "RRP" Liability. Overnight reductions in these Treasury Assets are what provide the Collateral to the Secured RRP Participants👌 Note the RRP consists of both Foreign and ON RRP (and I removed it in the YoY as to not confuse the visual👌) @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-08-04T03:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@hodgetwins So far its mainly large ramifications from Japan If there is a major attack it will worsen quickly Im afraid"
X Link 2024-08-05T07:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Dont worry folks Im sure this is limited to global stock markets - no ripple effects to worry about 🌊"
X Link 2024-08-05T07:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Since interest rates are moving so rapidly in the current environment I thought I would share some visuals of daily Interest Rate Inversions as far back as they have daily data🤷♂ Interpret as you wish. Top Chart: 🟠10-Year minus 2-Year ⚫2-Year minus EFFR Bottom Chart: 🟢2-Year minus EFFR 🟣1-Year minus EFFR 🔵6-Mo minus EFFR 🟠3-Mo minus EFFR 🟡1-Mo minus EFFR @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-08-06T05:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Today's Reverse Repo allotment fell below $300 Billion for first time since May 19th 2021👇 @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-08-06T18:03Z [----] followers, 40.5K engagements
"So much wasted interest Top Chart: Interest the Fed pays to the Commercial Banks on Reserve Balances the Fed allocated to them for free during periods of QE - Reserves * 🟢IORR and 🟠IORB Interest the Fed pays to a handful of MMFs on their RRP Operations -whose allotment and participation is at the discretion of the Fed 🟣 - RRP * RRP Rate Bottom Chart: Interest the Banks pay to each other mostly because of poor monetary decisions crafted by the Fed. Like paying interest on Reserves Balances for example 🤡 🔴Large Banks Borrowing * EFFR 🔵Foreign Banks Borrowing * EFFR 🟡Small Banks Borrowing"
X Link 2024-08-07T04:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Overnight Interest Rates Complex Last [--] Months @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-08-08T04:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Week in Review 🚨 This week saw a rather large $200B "non-QT" balance sheet maneuver over at the Fed🤔 The Treasury General Account dropped by $69 Billion (🟠Liability) The Fed also reduced the Domestic and Foreign RRP Allotments by $130 Billion (🔵Liabilities ) There was $6B in Emergency Loans paid back (🔴Asset ) These [--] maneuvers allowed the Fed to subsequently increase the Reserve Balances of the Banks by $195 Billion (🟢Liability ) As usual the Fed printed about $1.5 Billion in new Currency (⚫Liability) and they Accrued another $1.8 Billion in Remittance"
X Link 2024-08-08T22:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Yield Curve Inversions: 🚨 [--] Year / [--] Year [--] Year / Fed Funds [--] Year / Fed Funds Looking at the differences in the trajectories of each chart and knowing how the Fed tends to over-react after it's too late and I am even more convinced they are about to sharply cut the Fed Funds Rate in a panicky fashion🤷♂ @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-08-09T03:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Overnight Interest Rate Complex👌"
X Link 2024-08-09T07:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Cash Liquidity in the Banking System🚨 🟢Cash Assets of Banks: Currency + Deposits Due from other Commerical Banks + Reserve Deposit Balances due from the Fed 🟡Reserve Deposit Balances at the Fed (part of Cash assets) In theory there should never be a situation where the Reserve Balances of the Banks could be🔴less than the Cash Assets of the Banks However since the pandemic - and lack of Reserve requirements -we seem to be ignoring this basic concept fairly regularly🤷♂ @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-08-09T16:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"For all of the Fed Trackers. The weekly Balance sheet update 👇 Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Week in Review 🚨 This week saw a rather large $200B "non-QT" balance sheet maneuver over at the Fed🤔 The Treasury General Account dropped by $69 Billion (🟠Liability) The Fed also reduced the Domestic and Foreign RRP Allotments by $130 Billion https://t.co/QY9q9IfXFm Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Week in Review 🚨 This week saw a rather large $200B "non-QT" balance sheet maneuver over at the Fed🤔 The Treasury General Account dropped by $69 Billion (🟠Liability) The Fed also reduced the Domestic"
X Link 2024-08-09T16:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As of June [----] Consumers in the United States owe $360 Billion more on their Credit Cards🔴 than they have in their Savings Accounts🟢 .everything is fine"
X Link 2024-08-09T22:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The 2-Year Treasury Inversion - "a tale of federal funds"📚 At the beginning of July [----] the 2-Year Treasury Yield⚪inverted to the Fed Funds Rate🟢 A year later after 50-75 bps of rate capitulation the 2-Year finally peaked at 5.09% the week of June [--] [----]. This marked the beginning of an epic 100-bps+ decline over the next [--] months hitting 3.95% the week of Sept. [--] [----] Finally on Sept. [--] [----] the Federal Reserve was forced to cut the Fed Funds Rate🟢from 5.25% to 4.75%. This was followed up by two additional cuts of 0.25% in Oct. and Dec. That winter the 2-Year⚪continued its relentless"
X Link 2024-08-10T16:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"For those tracking interest rate inversions I offer the following stark reminders of where we are currently 👇 Yield Curve Inversions: 🚨 [--] Year / [--] Year [--] Year / Fed Funds [--] Year / Fed Funds Looking at the differences in the trajectories of each chart and knowing how the Fed tends to over-react after it's too late and I am even more convinced they are about to sharply cut the https://t.co/oAEQuHVtHc Yield Curve Inversions: 🚨 [--] Year / [--] Year [--] Year / Fed Funds [--] Year / Fed Funds Looking at the differences in the trajectories of each chart and knowing how the Fed tends to over-react after"
X Link 2024-08-10T17:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"For those keeping track of the Fed Balance sheet maneuvers I offer the following weekly update 👇 Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Week in Review 🚨 This week saw a rather large $200B "non-QT" balance sheet maneuver over at the Fed🤔 The Treasury General Account dropped by $69 Billion (🟠Liability) The Fed also reduced the Domestic and Foreign RRP Allotments by $130 Billion https://t.co/QY9q9IfXFm Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Week in Review 🚨 This week saw a rather large $200B "non-QT" balance sheet maneuver over at the Fed🤔 The Treasury General Account dropped by $69 Billion (🟠Liability)"
X Link 2024-08-10T18:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I think we can all agree that we have reached that critical point in time when the Fed finally capitulates and cuts the Fed Funds Rate🟢 It's important to remember it's at this same critical point in time that the number of Unemployed People🟣 tends to skyrocket I'll never understand why people constantly wish for Fed rate cuts🤷♂"
X Link 2024-08-11T04:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The Evolution of Quantitative Tightening . a visualization of Q.T. 📚 When the Fed engaged in their first round of Q.T. - June [----] to July [----] - it directly destroyed $500 Billion worth of Commercial Bank Reserve Deposit Balances🟡 In September of [----] the Fed was required to open up Emergency Repo operations for the Commercial Banks that lasted until Covid relief. The Fed engaged in the current round of Q.T. starting in June [----] - and so far they have managed to roll-off $1.8 Trillion in Treasuries and MBS from their SOMA Holdings🔴 During this round of QT instead of destroying Reserves"
X Link 2024-08-12T06:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"What actually happens when we Quantitatively Tighten 🤷 "Q.T." is when the Fed allows the🔴Securities Assets in its SOMA Holdings to mature and roll off without receiving the final principal repayment. When this happens the Securities Assets on its Balance sheet go down QT #1 - Test Case When the Fed decided to reduce their Balance Sheet through Q.T. in June [----] they only had [--] option to counterbalance the roll off of Securities - destroy the🟡Bank Reserves 👿 Unfortunately by July [----] (shortly after $500B was destroyed) the Commercial Banks found themselves in a situation that required"
X Link 2024-08-12T18:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Un-Inversions and Unemployment 🚨 🔵# Unemployed People 🟡Unemployment Rate ⚫10 Yr. - [--] Yr. 🔴Inversion Historically the time when we really start massive increases in Unemployment is when we come out of the yield Inversion Those cheering for Fed rate cuts need to understand what typically comes next 👇 @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-08-13T18:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Visualized🚨 🟢Currency Prior to [----] the only significant Liability of the Federal Reserve was physical Currency. For each dollar they printed the Fed also owned an equal amount of🟡Securities (specifically Treasuries) Back then Commercial Banks held some of their Currency with Federal Reserve Banks as Reserves which allowed them to use the Fed's electronic ledger to settle intrabank transactions (instead of driving armored trucks of currency around) 🩶Reserve Balances In [----] - without permission or public awareness campaign - the Fed decided to create a"
X Link 2024-08-14T04:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Overnight Fed Balance Sheet Activity🚨 🔵Reverse Repo 🟠Repo and🟣SOFR Inversion"
X Link 2024-08-14T18:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@TRHLofficial @AP It's truly amazing to witness the disintermediation of the mainstream media narrative live on @X"
X Link 2024-08-14T19:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Fighting the Yield Curve📉 The Fed's losing battle with the 2-Year Treasury 👇"
X Link 2024-08-15T15:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Daily Fed Balance Sheet Operations 🚨 🔵RRP - [--] Takers at $307 Billion in allotment 🟣No Repo Takers today 🟢🔴Still waiting on explanation here"
X Link 2024-08-15T18:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Week in Review 🚨 This week saw less than $50 billion worth of balance sheet maneuvers during a "non-QT week" over at the Fed The Overnight Reverse Repo allotment was increased by $41.8 billion (🔵Liability ) - while the Foreign RRP decreased slightly by $1.5B (dark🔵Liability ) The Governments account - the TGA - dropped slightly by $3.6 billion Reserve (🟠Liability) There was $251 million worth of Emergency Loans repaid (🔴Asset ) - and CB Swaps were stable No formal QT this week but there was net $31 million decrease in MBS and Treasury Securities (🟡Asset )"
X Link 2024-08-16T18:15Z [----] followers, 11.5K engagements
"Securities in Credit - Large and Small Banks🚨 Currently there seems to be two totally different Securities Holdings strategies playing out in our Commercial Banking system depending on the size of the Banking Institution Large Banks $150B Large Banks YoY Small and Regional Banks $150B Small Banks YoY During risking times (like today) Regulators like it when the Banks own Securities - especially when everyone knows interest Rates are about to come down🤷♂ @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-08-18T02:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"For those tracking the weekly moves in the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve I offer the following series of visualizations👇 @peruvian_bull Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Week in Review 🚨 This week saw less than $50 billion worth of balance sheet maneuvers during a "non-QT week" over at the Fed The Overnight Reverse Repo allotment was increased by $41.8 billion (🔵Liability ) - while the Foreign RRP decreased https://t.co/nKvcXuYRFA Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Week in Review 🚨 This week saw less than $50 billion worth of balance sheet maneuvers during a "non-QT week" over at the Fed"
X Link 2024-08-18T22:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Federal Reserve Emergency Lending Operations🚨 @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-08-18T23:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Reverse Repo Operations - the Art of Quantitative Tightening 📚 QT #1: How to Destroy the Bank Reserves 👿 From June 2018- July [----] the Fed destroyed $600B in Commercial Bank Reserves as the counterbalance to $600B of Securities roll-off from the inaugural round of "Q.T." By September of [----] SOFR broke and they said it was due to lack of Reserves and Taxes🫣 Immediately after this the Fed was forced into hundreds of Billions worth of Emergency Repo Lending to the Commercial Banks that continued through June [----] Most people forget about the last half of [----] because the Pandemic hit🤷♂ QT"
X Link 2024-08-19T01:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@DonMiami3 @MacroEdgeRes @MacroEdgeVision The next stage is upon us"
X Link 2024-08-19T02:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Federal Reserve Emergency Lending to Banks🚨"
X Link 2024-08-19T04:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Mr_Chestnut_ @DonMiami3 @MacroEdgeRes @MacroEdgeVision The Fed only does the money printing after the rates are already at zero🤷♂ Also giving the Banks a bunch of additional Reserves isn't going to make them Lend. They are just going to arbitrage the Reserves into Treasuries"
X Link 2024-08-19T18:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"When the Fed increases the Commercial Bank Reserve Balances through QE it does nothing to stimulate the economy unless the Banks use these new Reserves to create new Loans and Leases and their offsetting Deposit Liabilities. For instance the majority of the Increases in Credit at the Large Banks lately is actually the result of acquiring⚪Securities - not issuing new Credit. Of note they are making new long term high interest rate🟠home loans and reluctantly allowing 🟡credit card debt to increase All the other categories of Credit have been experiencing annual declines since July [----] 👇"
X Link 2024-08-19T20:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"A friendly reminder about future Q.E.🚨 To date the Fed has never acquired Securities to create new Bank Reserves in an interest rate environment other than zero %🤔 That means the Fed will need to cut interest rates back to zero again before they Q.E. 🤷♂ They will never give those free interest-bearing Reserves to the Banks at 5% 🤫 @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-08-20T03:55Z [----] followers, 16.8K engagements
"@_Finance365 Ironically IORR and IOER also became the same rate only [--] weeks after they were created. If the Banks had them why would they give the Fed excess Reserves at a lower rate🤡"
X Link 2024-08-20T20:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@MontaguNorman71 I tend to think that is a good assessment"
X Link 2024-08-21T22:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"One of the problems with being excited about upcoming interest rate cuts by the Fed is because it also means we are about to see further acceleration in the number of unemployed people🤷"
X Link 2024-08-22T18:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Unfortunately by the time the Federal Reserve figures out it needs to cut interest rates its usually already too late to save the employment situation 🤷 @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-08-23T01:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Let's say all of a sudden Regulators decided we needed to boost Loan Loss provisions for mounting CRE losses - from 1.6% today to something like 2.5% (it was 3.5% during GFC and 2% during the Pandemic). On $12.5 Trillion in Loans that would mean the system would rapidly need to come up with $125B Where would that new money come from Would they let the FHLBanks do it on top of the $550B they still have outstanding from March of [--] As a side note why do they never talk about the role of FHLBanks If the answer to the new money for loan losses is the Fed with another BTFP Band-Aid etc. - while"
X Link 2024-08-24T09:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"When they Created Non-Currency Bank Reserves Jan [--] - May 08: Fed is forced to sell $300B in Securities Assets🔴to cover $560B in Emergency Repo⚪and Primary Credit🟡 This compromised Currency Liabilities🟢 Sept 08: The Fed Creates Non-Currency Reserves by purchasing the mortgage-backed Securities owed by Banks and paying for them by increasing their Reserve Balances🟠- not with Currency🟢 Was this a good idea🤷♂"
X Link 2024-08-24T23:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"When they Created RRP tried to QT and Broke SOFR RRP🔵was tested in [----] but formally introduced right after QE ended in [----] By [----] the combination of RRP🔵and the ever-expanding needs of the TGA🟣seemed to be eating away at Bank Reserves🟠 - was RRP somehow allowing this🤷♂ 🔴QT started June in [----] and by July of [----] $500B of Reserves had been destroyed. Taxes came due Sept 15th Reserves were too low and SOFR broke causing massive Emergency Repo Borrowings⚪until the new Pandemic Reserves🟠were distributed"
X Link 2024-08-24T23:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The Pandemic caused the Fed to re-engage in QE Mar - Jun 20: In [--] days the Fed increased Securities Assets🔴by $2T - massively increasing Reserves🟠and allowing the TGA🟣to hit $1.4T Mar - Dec 21: RRP🔵is allowed to grow from zero to $1.9T @ 0% Interest🤔 Jun 22: Fed Starts QT - Reserves🟠are $3.3T Mar [--] - SVB Fails: Emergency Loans🟡hit $350B - but $400B in RRP🔵is tapped to offset it🤷♂ Since Mar of [--] $2.1 T worth of RRP reductions have absorbed $1.8 T worth of QT🔴almost repaid $350B in Emergency Loans🟡and kept the TGA🟣in its $750B target range Today Reserves🟠are $3.4T - thanks to"
X Link 2024-08-24T23:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"How to Build a Balance Sheet Although a somewhat noisy chart when zoomed all the way out I encourage everyone to follow the timelines Critical dates and corresponding reactions by the Fed are easier to understand when you can visualize them 👌 @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-08-24T23:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Many forget how volatile SOFR was when they first started pushing it on us back in April 2018🤔 At first it constantly spiked above Unsecured rates like EFFR and OBFR. And believe it or not it even spiked frequently above IORR and IOER - the Rates the Fed paid to the Banks on Reserves - and the high end of the Fed's Target range at the time. It spiked for a couple days over new Years [----] - right at the of end of its inaugural year. But it really broke down in September [----] after a combination of low Reserves from recent QT and quarterly Tax payments caused a massive Repo Borrowing spike for"
X Link 2024-08-25T04:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Bank Reserves the Original Digital Currency📚 By the week of October [--] [----] - less than a month after the collapse of Lehman Brothers - the Fed had already advanced $960 Billion in Emergency Repo Term Loans and Currency Swaps to Domestic and Foreign Banks and Central Banks🤯 Initially to provide this liquidity the Fed was forced to sell/pledge $300B of its Treasury Securities Assets Unfortunately doing this this left the Fed with only $480B of Securities Assets - woefully deficient to cover $850B in Currency Liabilities that were also outstanding at that time What's really interesting - is"
X Link 2024-08-25T18:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Stealth Reverse Repo to the Rescue🦸♂ During the first round [--] of Q.T. (Jun [--] -Jul 19) the Fed rolled-off over $500B of Securities Assets - and as expected - this round of Tightening destroyed $500B of M0 - "the Bank Reserves" - which are Assets of the Banks and Liabilities of the Fed Unfortunately because of low Reserves a few months later in Sep [----] the Banks were forced to borrow hundreds of billions of that "Tightening" back from the Fed's Emergency Repo window. These Emergency Bank Borrowings continued until the Fed created $2T worth of new non-Currency Reserves in the 2Q of 2020"
X Link 2024-08-27T17:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"For those following who don't follow the Fed's Reverse Repo - you should. It's how they are keeping the ship afloat⚓ Stealth Reverse Repo to the Rescue🦸♂ During the first round [--] of Q.T. (Jun [--] -Jul 19) the Fed rolled-off over $500B of Securities Assets - and as expected - this round of Tightening destroyed $500B of M0 - "the Bank Reserves" - which are Assets of the Banks and Liabilities of https://t.co/Suto2Lu8RW Stealth Reverse Repo to the Rescue🦸♂ During the first round [--] of Q.T. (Jun [--] -Jul 19) the Fed rolled-off over $500B of Securities Assets - and as expected - this round of"
X Link 2024-08-30T01:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Attention Banking Sleuths🔍 Please explain the scenario in which the Cash Assets in the Banking system (H.8) could be LESS than the Reserve Balances (H.4) the Fed reports holding for those same Banks🤔 How does this happen and why is it ok @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-08-30T02:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Week in Review 🚨 This week was an easy week over at the Fed👌 There was only $14 Billion of MBS QT planned (🟡Assets ) - so they only needed a single $115 Billion draw down on Bank Reserve Balances (🟢Liability ) to cover all the other offsetting maneuvers This allowed for a $16B increase in Foreign and $68B increase Domestic Reverse Repo (dark and light🔵 Liabilities) It allowed for a $22 Billion increase in the TGA (🟠Liability) There was slightly over $1B in Loans and Swaps repaid (🔴Asset ) They printed another $3.4 Billion in Currency (🩶 Liability) And as"
X Link 2024-08-30T19:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Monetary Mechanics Weekly Update🚨 Quantitative "Tightening" using Reverse Repo Since June of [----] the Fed has managed to roll off $1.40 Trillion of Treasuries🟡and $390 Billion of M.B. S.🟢"Assets" as part of QT [--] Interestingly enough a somewhat controlled reduction in RRP "Liabilities"🟣- now totaling $1.95 Trillion - have provided a more than sufficient counterbalance of funds to facilitate this roll off🤔 In fact a large increase in RRP "Liability" also allowed the Fed to create $400 Billion in Emergency Loans "Asset"🔴when SVB failed ($100B outstanding now) But what about the "extra" 🤷♂"
X Link 2024-08-30T23:07Z [----] followers, 16.4K engagements
"Assets of the Federal Reserve 🚨"
X Link 2024-08-31T21:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Liabilities of the Federal Reserve 🚨 Assets of the Federal Reserve 🚨 https://t.co/0yOIb4B1Pi Assets of the Federal Reserve 🚨 https://t.co/0yOIb4B1Pi"
X Link 2024-08-31T21:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I thought I would try a different way to visualize the nearly $200 Billion in Remittance losses that the Federal Reserve currently owes the Citizens of the United States Treasury These losses are coming from interest payments the Fed pays to the Commercial Banks on their Reserve Balances - currently $179 billion annually; and from interest payments the Fed pays to a handful of overnight Reverse Repo participants - currently $21 billion annually. Unfortunately the interest payments the Fed is paying for these two programs are more than the interest it is currently receiving on its Securities"
X Link 2024-09-01T00:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Fed is really nervous about these red bars.👇"
X Link 2024-09-01T01:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Because we all could use a refresher on the speed of Fed Rate Cuts - here is how they went in 2007👇 Most people forget that the 2-Year treasury dropped [---] basis points in just [--] months between June 07' and March 08' 😳"
X Link 2024-09-01T06:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"And because the Fed is always late to the party - here is how the battle has been going for them over the last [--] years👇 If you follow the green line the Fed tends to get there - just a few months behind🤷♂ History tends to repeat itself @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-09-01T06:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"When Monetary Tightening isnt really tightening 👇 Monetary Mechanics Weekly Update🚨 Quantitative "Tightening" using Reverse Repo Since June of [----] the Fed has managed to roll off $1.40 Trillion of Treasuries🟡and $390 Billion of M.B. S.🟢"Assets" as part of QT [--] Interestingly enough a somewhat controlled reduction in RRP https://t.co/7DPjRRN9j8 Monetary Mechanics Weekly Update🚨 Quantitative "Tightening" using Reverse Repo Since June of [----] the Fed has managed to roll off $1.40 Trillion of Treasuries🟡and $390 Billion of M.B. S.🟢"Assets" as part of QT [--] Interestingly enough a somewhat"
X Link 2024-09-01T19:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"What exactly is the Fed's Reverse Repo🤔 When a handful of large market Participants buy Treasuries overnight from the Fed and the Fed agrees to Repurchase them the following day they tell us that this "temporarily" reduces the Bank Reserves - which are part of M0 - ok got it👌 But what happens when the RRP isn't temporary "quarter end" -and instead it grows massively. And what happens when its balance gets to $2.5 Trillion How can a continuous RRP balance of this magnitude not be considered as an offset to M0 (Reserves) Perhaps this is one of the reasons for the March [----] Reg D changes with"
X Link 2024-09-01T21:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Rates remained at Zero for [--] years after they gave the Banks their Reserves in [----] This time they raised the rates immediately after giving the Reserves to the Banks When the Banks arbitrage their Reserves into other HQLA like Treasuries and then the Fed violently raises rates you get this situation 🤷♂"
X Link 2024-09-02T18:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"5 Years of Monetary Maneuvers - Visualized 🪞📚 Mar. [--] - Jun. 20: The Fed infused $1.0T+ of fresh🩶Reserves into the Banking system - bringing them ultimately to $2.6 Trillion by June. They also "made room" on their Balance sheet to allow the Government to add $1.3 Trillion of new Debt sales into the🔵Treasury General Account ("T.G.A.") - bringing it to its high of $1.8 T The Fed also made $750B in🔴Emergency Loans (Assets) to Commercial Banks and Central Banks. The good news is they had just created $2.3T of the new Liabilities they needed to offset these new Loans👌 These major operations"
X Link 2024-09-02T19:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Be careful here. 🟠Demand Deposits (M1) are the only component of M2 that is actively increasing YoY More traditional consumer facing accounts like 🟢Liquid Deposits - f.k.a Checking and Savings (M1) 🔵Retail Money Market Funds (M2) 🟣Small CDs (M2) are either significantly negative YoY 🟢or barely squeaking by 🔵🟣 Stacked M2 components from the H.6 Monetary Aggregates👇"
X Link 2024-09-02T21:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@MrNotAdvice The trick is to figure out exactly what Demand Deposits consist of - but I tend to think its more intrabank deposits vs consumer just based on history of accounts"
X Link 2024-09-02T22:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Bank Credit Update 🚨 If we can't figure out a way to make the Banks start lending to consumers again I think it is going to continue to get even more challenging in our economy We are at historic lows in Credit creation - and during a historically high interest rate environment🤨 Creating new Loans and Leases🟣 is a requirement of a system built on Debt For each new dollar of Loans created there is a counterbalancing new dollar of Deposits also created somewhere else in the system. If Banks stop creating new Loans then we run out of new Deposits to pay off the old Loans when they mature🤷♂"
X Link 2024-09-03T03:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Commercial Real Estate Exposure Update🚨 Over the last [--] years Small Domestic Banks ($150B) 🟣have taken on significantly more CRE exposure than the Large Domestic Banks ($150B)🟢 🟢Large Banks CRE exposure started to decline back in August of [----] and now sit $28B less than this time last year 🟣Small Banks CRE exposure has declined by $200B since SVB failed in March or [--]. Unfortunately according to the latest 1Q 24' FDIC stats there was still $530 Billion of Un-Used CRE Loan Commitments "off Balance Sheet" - so I wouldn't necessarily expect to see any annual declines until sometime in 2025"
X Link 2024-09-03T04:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"And because it's important to understand the different types of CRE Loans included in these figures I thought I would include the details by CRE category on a YoY basis 🟠Multifamily Properties 🟣Non-Farm / Non-Resi "Commercial" Properties 🟢Construction and Land Development Projects 🔵Loans Secured by Farmland"
X Link 2024-09-03T04:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Fed Funds and 2-Year inversion getting steeper again - an eerily familiar place👀 On 9/11/07 the 2-Year hit 3.85% - [---] bps inverted to Fed Funds at 5.25% A week later on 9/18/07 the Fed cut [--] bps to 4.75% They would cut another [--] bps on 10/31/07 to 4.50% [--] weeks later on 11/27/07 the 2-Year would hit 2.91% - [---] bps inverted [--] months later on 3/18/08 the 2-Year would hit 1.89% - still [---] bps inverted. The 2-Year is currently 3.87% - [---] bps inverted to Fed Funds Rate of 5.33% On 9/18/24 the Fed is expected to cut [--] bps to 4.75% Is the Fed about to chase the rabbit🐇down the hole again"
X Link 2024-09-05T06:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"RRP Update🚨 Heading into the weekend the Fed's Reverse Repo is once again below the $300 Billion level🫣 Liquidity contingency getting thinner"
X Link 2024-09-06T22:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Treasuries vs. the Fed 🚨 The Market seems to be in "colorful" disagreement with the Fed since the beginning of 2023😏 In all honesty the level of inversion is quite impressive - is that good or bad 😳 @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-09-07T05:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Current status of the Federal Reserve's various ongoing Emergency Lending operations🚨"
X Link 2024-09-07T05:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Quantitative Tightening Weekly Update🚨 Since June of [----] the Fed has used approximately $2.25 Trillion worth of reductions in the🟣Overnight Reverse Repo operations as the mechanism to allow for the roll-off of $1.83 Trillion of 🟡Treasuries and 🟢Mortgage-Backed Securities through Q.T. The additional $400B of RRP Liability reduction has made room on the Balance sheet for the Fed to Create another $100 Billion of🟢Currency Liabilities add another $90 Billion to🩶Bank Reserve Liabilities and allow the Government to maintain a $750B+ cushion in the🔵T.G.A. Liability - Extra Reserves during"
X Link 2024-09-08T02:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"In April of [----] "Checking" accounts (M1) and "Savings" accounts (M2) merged into one category called - "Liquid Deposits" (M1) 🟢🟠- totaling $12.3 Trillion Since Savings accounts were now liquid they were easily able to move over to the Fed's🔵RRP - and they did so in earnest starting in March of [--] - reaching $1.9T by March of [--] When the Fed decided to pursue Q.T. in June of [--] they simply "dialed down" their RRP Liabilities as they rolled off their Securities Assets🤷♂ $1.8 Trillion of⚫Q.T. has been directly offset by $1.9 Trillion in🔵RRP reduction Unfortunately this also led to the"
X Link 2024-09-09T16:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Interest Rate Cuts🚨 Where we have been. The most inverted the 2-Year Treasury has been with Fed Policy rates over the last [--] years occurred on Jan 18th [----] at - 1.758%. This happened after [--] previous rate cuts totaling 1.25% had already occurred The following week the Fed would engage in an emergency 75-bps Rate Cut - followed up by another 50-bps Cut the week after that Where we are going. The 2-Year inverted with Fed Policy rates at the end of [----] - with a sharp reinforcement of that when SVB failed in March of [----] It would stay inverted despite [--] more Fed rate increases through July"
X Link 2024-09-11T00:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Consumer Liquidity🚨 With changes in definitions of our Monetary Aggregates in March of [----] I thought it would be helpful to provide some clarity to Consumer Liquidity 🟢Liquid Deposit Accounts (M1) - f.k.a "Checking" 🟡and "Savings"🟠 5/04/20: $11.96 T 4/18/22: $13.46 T Currently: $10.56 T Year over Year: -$647 B and declining 🟣Retail Money Market Funds (M2) 5/04/20: $1.10T 4/18/22: $993B Currently: $1.87T Year over Year: $372 B and steady 🔵Small ($100K) Time Deposits (M2) 5/04/20: $490B 4/18/22: $39B Currently: $182 B and declining @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-09-11T18:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Consumers are almost back down to the same level of total Liquidity and Savings as they were pre-pandemic - only now everything is 25% more expensive🙄 Consumer Liquidity🚨 With changes in definitions of our Monetary Aggregates in March of [----] I thought it would be helpful to provide some clarity to Consumer Liquidity 🟢Liquid Deposit Accounts (M1) - f.k.a "Checking" 🟡and "Savings"🟠 5/04/20: $11.96 T 4/18/22: https://t.co/LONkLJR3SL Consumer Liquidity🚨 With changes in definitions of our Monetary Aggregates in March of [----] I thought it would be helpful to provide some clarity to Consumer"
X Link 2024-09-11T22:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A Thorough Examination of Broad Money Aggregates M1 and M2📚🧵 There are lot of posts on @X about "the M2 money supply going up" - and while this is true - it is also important to understand which "part" of the money supply is actually going up🤔 This thread uses data as of August 5th [----] from the H.6 Money Stock Measures Series of the Federal Reserve Let's start with the most liquid money "M1" - which consists of physical Currency and Commercial Bank Deposit accounts without withdrawal restrictions @peruvian_bull 1/12"
X Link 2024-09-13T23:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"M1 = Currency + non-restricted Deposits: Currently M1 is sitting at $18.11 Trillion - which is down$2.83 trillion since 4/22 and down $200 billion from this time last year. . but what the heck happened in 2020👀 In May of [----] changes in the way we account for Savings and Checking redefined the definition of M1 - (described further👇) 2/12"
X Link 2024-09-13T23:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Demand Deposits - M1: Demand Deposits soared in the post pandemic era. It is difficult to ascertain exactly what types of accounts are included in "Demand Deposits" - but historically they have always been accounted for separately from traditional consumer facing accounts like Checking Savings CD's and Money Market Funds. With so much volume lately and with Demand Deposits really being the only strong component of liquidity growth some transparency here would be useful🤷♂ Currently Demand Deposits are sitting at $5.26 Trillion which is up$461.7 since 4/22 - most of which ($427.6 billion) came"
X Link 2024-09-13T23:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Checking Deposits (pre- 2/01/21) - M1: In March of [----] Changes in Regulation D made Savings Accounts withdrawals unlimited. This led to the merging of Checking Deposits (M1) and Savings Deposits (M2) into a single category called "Liquid Deposits" Liquid Deposits became part of M1 in May of [----] - and Checking and Savings were discontinued. This is the cause of the massive M1 spike in 2020👌 The phasing out of Checking deposits ended on Feb 1st [----] with a final balance of $4.80 Trillion 5/12"
X Link 2024-09-13T23:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Liquid Deposits - M1: In May of [----] Checking (M1) and Savings (M2) merged into a single category called "Liquid Deposits" The starting balance on this new category of Liquid Consumer Deposits was $11.96 Trillion. By April of [----] it had increased to $13.96 Trillion due to Pandemic stimulus Currently Liquid Deposits are sitting at $10.56 Trillion which isdown $3.38 trillion from 4/22 and down $646.8 billion from this time last year 6/12"
X Link 2024-09-13T23:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Stacked Components of M1: Stacking all of the M1 Components (old and new) together looks something like the following chart We can clearly see that while M1 is down $200B on a YoY basis it is solely due to Consumer's Checking and Savings "Liquid deposits". In fact Demand Deposits are soaring almost $500B higher🤔 ."but all that money went into CD's and Money Market Funds right." If it did - we will see it in the M2 on the next slide 👇 7/12"
X Link 2024-09-13T23:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"M2 = M1 + Savings (pre - 4/27/20) + Retail Money Market Funds + Small Time Deposits ("CDs") M2 is currently sitting at $21.10 Trillion which isdown $873.1 billion from 4/22 but up $354.2 billion from this time last year 8/12"
X Link 2024-09-13T23:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Savings Deposits (pre- 4/27/20) - M2: Prior to March of [----] Savings Accounts had withdrawal limitations of [--] per month and as a result were considered part of M2 along with other non-liquid Deposits like CD's and MMFs. When this limitation was lifted it led to the merging of Checking Deposits (M1) and Savings Deposits (M2) into a single category called "Liquid Deposits" Liquid Deposits became part of M1 in May of [----] - and Checking and Savings were discontinued. This is the cause of the massive M1 spike in 2020👌 The phasing out of Savings Deposits ended on April 27th [----] with a final"
X Link 2024-09-13T23:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Fed Balance Sheet Week in Review🚨 This was another light week at the Fed. It only required a $58 billion reduction in the Foreign and ON-RRP operations (🟣Liabilities ) to accommodate the remaining Balance Sheet maneuvers this week These included: $20 billion increase in Reserves (🩶Liability ) $14 billion increase in the T.G.A (🔵Liability) $5.5 billion in new Currency printed (🟢Liability ) $10 billion in Treasuries QT roll-off (🟡Asset ) $744 million of Loans Repaid (🔴Asset ) It also allowed for another $1.7 billion to accrue on the Remittances losses due from the Fed to the Treasury."
X Link 2024-09-14T02:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Does having more Bank Reserves do anything to stimulate more Credit🤔 The amount of "Bank Reserves" we have in the Banking system has no impact on the amount of Lending that Banks can engage in. More Reserves aren't needed to create more Loans🤷♂ So if having more Reserves doesn't create more Credit then why would we think the rate of interest https://t.co/yEJ218sBFP The amount of "Bank Reserves" we have in the Banking system has no impact on the amount of Lending that Banks can engage in. More Reserves aren't needed to create more Loans🤷♂ So if having more Reserves doesn't create more"
X Link 2024-09-15T18:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Who has all the Bank Reserves💵🤔🧵 Reserve Liabilities and Securities Assets: 🩶Reserves with Federal Reserve Banks - $3.32T 🟡Fed Securities (backing Reserves)- $6.69T"
X Link 2024-09-17T15:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Reserves by Bank Type: 🔵Small Domestic Banks ($150B) - 15.5% 🟠Large Domestic Banks ($150B) - 47.8% 🟢Foreign Banks - 36.5%🤔 36.5% of the Domestic Bank Reserves are located in Foreign Banks🤔"
X Link 2024-09-17T15:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Reserves Deposits and Bank Credit💵 Between [----] and [----] the Banking system created $5.0T worth of new🔵Loans and Leases. During this time🟢Bank Reserves were consistently less than $40B (other than 9/11) - and even less than that leading up to [----]. M2 Money supply increased correspondingly by $4.5T from $3.3T to $7.8T $5.0T of Loans and Leases - Created $4.5T of M2 Deposits with only $10B of Reserves in the system👍 Between [----] and today the Banking system has created $5.5T worth of new🔵Loans and Leases During this time🟢Bank Reserves increased by as much as $4.2T - but currently sit at"
X Link 2024-09-17T23:57Z [----] followers, 10.4K engagements
"On the eve of the big rate decision its always a good idea to refresh our memories on previous rate cut cycles 👌 Interest Rate Cuts🚨 Where we have been. The most inverted the 2-Year Treasury has been with Fed Policy rates over the last [--] years occurred on Jan 18th [----] at - 1.758%. This happened after [--] previous rate cuts totaling 1.25% had already occurred The following week https://t.co/WCLuGmu9lR Interest Rate Cuts🚨 Where we have been. The most inverted the 2-Year Treasury has been with Fed Policy rates over the last [--] years occurred on Jan 18th [----] at - 1.758%. This happened after 3"
X Link 2024-09-18T04:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As large as it is now ($195B) and considering it is a Liability that is accruing to the negative this accrual now sits on the Balance sheet as a $195B offset to what otherwise would have been $195B of Securities roll off from QT. Fed accruing Remittance Losses are stealth QE 🤷♂"
X Link 2024-09-18T17:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As large as it is now ($195B) and considering it is a Liability that is accruing to the negative this accrual now sits on the Balance sheet as a $195B offset to what otherwise would have been $195B of Securities roll off from QT. The Fed accruing Remittance Losses is stealth QE 🤷♂"
X Link 2024-09-18T17:09Z [----] followers, 10.6K engagements
"As we wait a friendly reminder. [----] [-----] Rate cut cycle vs. 2-Year Treasury"
X Link 2024-09-18T17:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@NorthmanTrader The [----] - [----] Rate Cut cycle vs. 2-Year Treasury"
X Link 2024-09-18T18:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@subjectiveviews The last rate cut cycle vs. 2-Year Treasury"
X Link 2024-09-18T19:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Geiger_Capital The rate cut cycle of 2007-2008 vs. [--] Year Treasuries"
X Link 2024-09-18T19:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"On September 18th [----] the Fed cut rates by [--] bps On September 18th [----] the Fed cut rates by [--] bps What will happen this time 🤔 Interest Rate Cuts🚨 Where we have been. The most inverted the 2-Year Treasury has been with Fed Policy rates over the last [--] years occurred on Jan 18th [----] at - 1.758%. This happened after [--] previous rate cuts totaling 1.25% had already occurred The following week https://t.co/WCLuGmu9lR Interest Rate Cuts🚨 Where we have been. The most inverted the 2-Year Treasury has been with Fed Policy rates over the last [--] years occurred on Jan 18th [----] at - 1.758%."
X Link 2024-09-18T20:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@echodatruth The last time we cut rates👇"
X Link 2024-09-18T21:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Assets (+) and Liabilities (-) of the Federal Reserve 🚨 A Balance sheet must Balance Note: The negatively accruing⚪Remittances (losses) are now registering at $195B - and offsetting an equal amount of Securities roll-off from QT"
X Link 2024-09-18T23:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Yearly Changes in Assets (+) and Liabilities (-) of the Federal Reserve 🚨 Follow the flow 🏄of the Sources and Uses of Capital Changes in balance sheet items on the top half of the chart are being offset by corresponding balance sheet adjustments on the bottom half - a balance sheet must balance👌 Assets: increasing on Top and decreasing on Bottom Liabilities: increasing on Bottom and decreasing on Top Note: In this round of QT it has been🟣RRP reductions - not Reserves - that have been absorbing🟡Securities roll-off as well as assisting with🔵TGA management Reserves are higher today than"
X Link 2024-09-18T23:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"When the Fed created Bank Reserves📚 Balance Sheet of the Federal Reserve [----] [-----] Assets (+) 🟡Treasuries 🟢Mortgage-Backed Securities 🔴Loans Swaps T.A.F. operations Liabilities (-) 🟢Currency 🩶Non-currency Reserves 🔵Treasury General Account 🟣Foreign and Overnight Reverse Repo 1/4"
X Link 2024-09-19T05:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The chart below highlights the new Reserve Liabilities - and their counter balancing Cash Assets of the Commercial Banks. This is further broken down into: 🟠Large Domestic Banks ($150B Assets) 🔵Small Domestic Banks ($150B Assets) 🟢Foreign Banks And you can clearly see the Reserves in QE [--] were mainly allocated to the Foreign Banks. Perhaps the Fed traded $250B of crappy MBS to the Foreign Banks along with $500B of these new Reserves and got $800B of Treasuries. not bad 🤷♂ 3/4"
X Link 2024-09-19T05:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The chart below breaks down the Reserves by Federal Reserve District. You can clearly see the vast majority of the Reserves end up in the New York Fed District 2🟡. In fact 60% of all the Domestic Bank Reserves today are located in NY District #2 You can also surmise that many of the Foreign Banks must also be located within NY District [--] as well. In fact 36% of all the Domestic Bank Reserves today are located in Foreign Banks and these Banks are likely in NY District [--] When we add in San Franciso #15🔵and Richmond (D.C.) #5 🟢the totals from these [--] Reserve Districts contains 85% of all the"
X Link 2024-09-19T06:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Rate Cuts🚨 For those keeping track when the Fed cut rates 50- bps on September 18th [----] the [--] Yr. Treasury had just touched an inversion point 1.30% lower than the Fed Funds Rate When the Fed cut rates [--] bps on September 18th [----] the [--] Yr. Treasury was inverted at 1.77% lower than the Policy rate. What happens next from here🤷♂ @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-09-19T17:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Week in Review🚨 This week was kind of a rough one for the Commercial Banks - as the sole maneuver at the Fed was to draw down $143B from the Bank Reserves (🩶Liability ) This large move allowed the Treasury to increase the TGA by $114B (🔵Liability ) and it also allowed the Fed to increase the dwindling ON-RRP by $27 Billion - pushing it back up over $300B by the end the week (🟣Liability) The Fed also rolled off $5B in Treasuries (🟡Asset ) And the Banks paid back $3.1B of Emergency Loans (🔴Asset ) @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-09-20T17:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Foreign Bank Liquidity 🏦 For those tracking Foreign Banks and their domestic Dollar liquidity I offer the following combination from the weekly H.4 and H.8 Federal Reserve statistics👌 Foreign Bank Domestic Liquidity: Top Half 🟢H.8 Cash Assets of Foreign Banks (+) 🟣H.4 Foreign Reverse Repo (+) Foreign Bank Domestic Borrowings: Bottom Half 🔴H.8 Borrowings of Foreign Banks (-) 🟠H.4 Central Bank Liquidity Swaps (-) 🟡H.4 Foreign Bank Repo Borrowings (-) @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-09-22T02:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Net Due to Related Foreign Offices🧵 .a little slice of the Euro-Dollar Market illuminated Most people know that a handful of large international Banks control the global flow of Dollars. These Banks are the Prime Securites Brokers the FX market markers and the Custodians of everything. International Banks have multiple ledgers in multiple jurisdictions with multiple currency pairs - and all needing dollars. This inevitably gives rise to intra-bank Borrowing and Lending within their Foreign offices. Think of "Net Due to Foreign Offices" as a Liability on a Bank's Balance sheet that represents"
X Link 2024-09-22T23:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Net Due to Related Foreign Offices 🟢Foreign Banks 🟠Large Domestic Banks 🔵Foreign Banks Lending $690B more to their U.S. Offices 🔴Large Domestic banks Borrowing $450B more from their Foreign Offices 4/5"
X Link 2024-09-22T23:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Foreign Bank's Domestic U.S. Liquidity 🏄 Now that we have an understanding of Net Due we can look at how it interplays with the Foreign Banks and their liquidity - "Euro-dollars" Stacked Assets and Liabilities of Foreign Banks and the Federal Reserve from the H.4 and H.8 Federal Reserve Statistics - inverted as appropriate👌 🟢H.8 Reserves +🟣H.4 RRP Deposits + 🔵H.8 Fed Funds Sold = Foreign Bank's Liquid Dollars in the U.S. This liquidity is offset by. 🔴Domestic U.S. H.8 Borrowings +🟡H.8 Net Due to Related Foreign Offices - Offshore Dollar Borrowings Also note when the🟠CB Swaps switched"
X Link 2024-09-22T23:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Net Due to Foreign Offices - a little slice of the Euro dollar flow🏄♂ Currently Foreign Banks 🟢 in the U.S. are Borrowing 🔵 $690 Billion more from their Home Offices in other countries Currently Large Domestic Banks 🟠 in the U.S. are Borrowing 🔴 $450 Billion more from their Foreign offices @peruvian_bull @DarioCpx @conksresearch"
X Link 2024-09-22T23:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Liabilities of the FHLBanks The Liabilities of the FHLBanks mainly consist of their Consolidated Obligations "C/Os"🟣 - or Securities they sell in the open Market. FRED calls them GSE Issues of FHLB The monies raised from the Sale of these Securities are then lent to Banks Credit Unions and Insurance Companies who are Members of FHLBanks FHLBanks Members post collateral like Home Loans CRE loans and Securities to Borrow money The C/Os are not Registered with the SEC but they do carry the full backing of the FHLBanks and the "joint and several" Guaranty of its Members🫡 Currently the total"
X Link 2024-09-23T04:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Assets of the FHLBanks The Assets of the FHLBanks consist of the following: 🩶Advances or Loans to Members 🔵Securities Held 🟣Security Repurchase Agreements 🟠Mortgages Held 🔴Federal Funds Held 🟢Currency 🟡Time and Savings Deposits FHLBanks is one of the largest participants in the overnight Money Markets complex. Absent a master account with the Fed and access to IORB the FHLBanks has grown into the role of Seller of Federal Funds primarily Advances to Members - or "Loans" are detailed on the next slide👇 3/4"
X Link 2024-09-23T04:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"FHLBanks "Advances" - Loans to Members FHLBanks provides Loans to its Members. Collateral like Home Loans CRE Loans and Securities are posted from pre-positioned portfolios - and Monies are quickly able to be Loaned. We saw this the week that Silicon Valley Bank failed in March of [----] when the Domestic Banking system Borrowed $250 Billon from FHLBanks. 2Q [----] Loan Statistics 🔴Casualty Insurance Cos: $4.4B $150M 🟡Finance Companies: $151M$16M 🟢Credit Unions: $81B$3B 🟠Life Insurance Cos: $150B$6B 🔵U.S. Charted Banks: $549B$7B Banks and Life Co's are still continuing the elevated"
X Link 2024-09-23T04:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Unfortunately its looking a lot like [----] in terms of new Credit Creation 🟡 Whats different is that 🔵interest rates were Zero back then and now they are 5% - but the Banks still arent lending now 🧐 Historically when interest rates are high Banks make Loans and Leases 🟣 The record for % increase in new Loans occurred in [----] with Fed Funds at 10.50% as an example Unfortunately also like [----] - all of the new Credit is really just the Banks buying Treasuries ⚪🤷♂ We havent havent had this low of a level of new loan creation in a non Recession environment since right after the S&L Crisis"
X Link 2024-09-23T06:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"For those tracking FHLBanks - and their continued Lending within the Commercial Banking and Finance sector - 2Q [----] Stats🫡 @peruvian_bull Federal Home Loan Banks 2Q Update🚨📚 FHLBanks are a Government Sponsored Entity (GSE) that is Regulated by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) - along with Fannie Mae Freddie Mac and the Office of Finance (their Securities issuance division) FHLBanks is not part of https://t.co/D1O4to8kBo Federal Home Loan Banks 2Q Update🚨📚 FHLBanks are a Government Sponsored Entity (GSE) that is Regulated by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) - along with"
X Link 2024-09-23T16:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The Fed's🔵Reverse Repo hit $380B and is once again filling up after dropping below $300B last week I suspect the Fed now realizes the RRP is instrumental to absorb unusual balance sheet flows - and so my guess is they try to keep it between $300B - $400B Having "as needed" Liabilities like the RRP is something you don't let go easily Also we still have us a couple of Repo takers currently 🟢🔴👀"
X Link 2024-09-23T20:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Tracking the Federal Reserve's Liability Maneuvers🤔 The chart below stacks the main Assets (+) and Liabilities (-) of the Federal Reserve on a year over year basis. A balance sheet must always balance - and so there are really only a few things to worry about most of the time🤷♂ Fed Assets 🟡Securities Assets: The Fed grows its balance sheet by acquiring Securities "QE" - and shrinks it by rolling them off "QT" 🔴Emergency Loans Assets: (🟠T.A.F was GFC only). When Emergency loans are needed the Fed must either sell assets for cash (like it did in 2007) - or it must somehow create additional"
X Link 2024-09-24T00:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Monday after the 50-bps Rate cut in [----] vs Today @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-09-24T05:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@JEChalmers There was no inflation it was a single event supply side shock caused by too much money printing from folks like you and others. Now is point where the nominal sales prices - inflated by you - and the underlying demand must collide"
X Link 2024-09-24T06:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Azza875 @JEChalmers Suppliers misled into the inflation demand narrative now have over supply to sell at todays prices - but also at todays wages"
X Link 2024-09-24T07:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"M1 and M2 and Components September Update 🚨 Understanding which components are increasing and which are not is more useful than just spouting off when M2 is increasing 🟡Demand Deposits are causing the recent increases to M2 - not Checking and Savings ("Liquid"🟢) or CD's 🔵and MMF's🟣"
X Link 2024-09-24T22:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"FHLBanks Advances (Loans) to its members increased in 2Q🚨 FHLBanks "Advances" - Loans to Members FHLBanks provides Loans to its Members. Collateral like Home Loans CRE Loans and Securities are posted from pre-positioned portfolios - and Monies are quickly able to be Loaned. We saw this the week that Silicon Valley Bank failed https://t.co/IjkSdkBIX0 FHLBanks "Advances" - Loans to Members FHLBanks provides Loans to its Members. Collateral like Home Loans CRE Loans and Securities are posted from pre-positioned portfolios - and Monies are quickly able to be Loaned. We saw this the week that"
X Link 2024-09-24T23:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@McSqueezyTheCow Although still only available through 1Q 2024🤨 here is the FDIC reported non-interest income (including Trading Activity) for the FDIC insured Banks"
X Link 2024-09-25T16:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Since the recent Rate cut is now it only costs the Fed $183.6 billion in annual interest on their Open Market Operations instead of $196.3 billion🤡 Total accrued Remittances Losses owed to the Treasury are now siting over $198 billion - and growing by the week"
X Link 2024-09-25T21:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"How do you track $132 Trillion worth of Debt🚨 Z.1 Statistics: D-3 Debt Outstanding by Sector The Fed is currently monitoring over $132 Trillion in dollar denominated U.S. Commercial and Central Bank originated debt across several categories within our Domestic financial system. This does not represent the entirety of dollar denominated obligations worldwide but it does give us a window into a sizeable portion Charting it on a year over year basis clearly shows continued increases in Government debt issuance due to government spending - with 2Q [----] Federal debt a massive $2.3 Trillion more"
X Link 2024-09-26T16:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The Fed's RRP hit $425B today - It's end of quarter tomorrow - will it hit $600B"
X Link 2024-09-26T21:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Fed Balance Sheet Week in Review🚨 This week was an active week at the Fed. A large Liability maneuver was needed to accommodate a $110 billion increase in the ON-RRP (🟣Liability) and an $18 billion decrease in M.B.S through QT (🟢Asset ) These [--] maneuvers were made possible by a $61 billion decline in the TGA (🔵Liability ) and by draining $75 billion from the Bank Reserves (🩶Liability ) They also managed to receive $9 billion in Loan repayments (🔴Asset ) and as usual they had to accrue another $1.7 billion in Remittance losses to the Treasury (⚪Liability ) @peruvian_bull Tracking the"
X Link 2024-09-26T22:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"FHLBanks Loans increased again in 2Q 👇 FHLBanks "Advances" - Loans to Members FHLBanks provides Loans to its Members. Collateral like Home Loans CRE Loans and Securities are posted from pre-positioned portfolios - and Monies are quickly able to be Loaned. We saw this the week that Silicon Valley Bank failed https://t.co/IjkSdkBIX0 FHLBanks "Advances" - Loans to Members FHLBanks provides Loans to its Members. Collateral like Home Loans CRE Loans and Securities are posted from pre-positioned portfolios - and Monies are quickly able to be Loaned. We saw this the week that Silicon Valley Bank"
X Link 2024-09-26T23:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Assets and Liabilities of the of the Federal Reserve 🏦"
X Link 2024-09-28T05:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Assets and Liabilities of the Federal Reserve Visualized 👌"
X Link 2024-09-28T17:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Lead-Up to the Creation of Bank Reserves 📚 Prior to Bank Reserves Fed banking was simple. Each dollar of🟢Currency in existence or held in the🔵TGA or offered in🟣Foreign Repo operations (Fed Liabilities) were backed by🟡Treasury Securities and a smattering of overnight🔴Repo Loans (Fed Assets) In late [----] circumstances started to change and in order to provide much needed Liquidity to the Banks the Fed was forced to start liquidating / pledging / repoing its🟡Treasury Securities. At this time in Fed history financial fuckery was the only option🤷♂ If the Fed needed to increase its"
X Link 2024-09-29T03:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"If you are a Bank the scariest thing is the world is to have your fractionally backed Deposits competing with fully Reserved stable coins 👇 The Ripple Effect: A Silent Coup Against the Fiat System In the latest chapter of the ongoing financial revolution Ripple's recent minting of [------] RLUSD stablecoins signals a major step toward decentralizing the global financial system. This isn't just another blockchain https://t.co/ip9LpmLFlH The Ripple Effect: A Silent Coup Against the Fiat System In the latest chapter of the ongoing financial revolution Ripple's recent minting of [------] RLUSD"
X Link 2024-09-29T17:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Weekly Fed Balance Sheet update 👇 Fed Balance Sheet Week in Review🚨 This week was an active week at the Fed. A large Liability maneuver was needed to accommodate a $110 billion increase in the ON-RRP (🟣Liability) and an $18 billion decrease in M.B.S through QT (🟢Asset ) These [--] maneuvers were made https://t.co/npF8MMhnAY Fed Balance Sheet Week in Review🚨 This week was an active week at the Fed. A large Liability maneuver was needed to accommodate a $110 billion increase in the ON-RRP (🟣Liability) and an $18 billion decrease in M.B.S through QT (🟢Asset ) These [--] maneuvers were made"
X Link 2024-09-29T18:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@SomeBitcoinDude Except RLUSD will be regulated and it will paired with regulated tokenized securities on the same ledger"
X Link 2024-09-29T19:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Someone hit the Fed's Repo window today for $2.5 Billion👀 @peruvian_bull @FinanceLancelot @DarioCpx"
X Link 2024-09-30T19:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"🔵Reverse Repo ended the quarter at $468 Billion - without its typical spike🤔 Meanwhile someone is now hitting up the Emergency Repo 🟡Treasury and🔴MBS windows to the tune of $2.5 Billion👀 @peruvian_bull"
X Link 2024-09-30T19:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@DarioCpx Last week the Fed sucked $145 Billion from the Bank Reserves to allow for increases in RRP and the TGA Today we see an unexpected flat quarter end in the RRP and instead there is $2.5B of Repo. something is off. Weekly changes in Fed Liabilities 👇"
X Link 2024-09-30T22:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"SOFR inverted with IORB for the first time yesterday👀 The last time SOFR inverted with the overnight rate offered on Bank reserves was Jan [--] [----] @peruvian_bull @DarioCpx @FinanceLancelot"
X Link 2024-10-01T15:59Z [----] followers, 20.8K engagements
"SOFR vs. IORR/IOER and IORB The recent inversion of SOFR 🟢with Interest on Reserve Balances ("IORB")🔴is the first time we have seen an inversion in this series since the Fed dropped its Interest on Required Reserves ("IORR") ⚪and Interest on Excess Reserves ("IOER")🟣concept in Aug of [----] From its initial inception in [----] SOFR seemed to be the go-to choice for premium overnight returns on Excess Reserves - consistently returning higher yields than the Fed's Reserve options. Once all Reserves were treated equally with IORB the inversion premium seemed to stop - until yesterday🤷♂"
X Link 2024-10-01T21:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Barchart This week the Fed will push over $200B in total accrued remittances losses to date - but the good news is their interest payments are coming down with the Rate Cuts now only $181 Billion annually🤡"
X Link 2024-10-02T05:20Z [----] followers, 11.6K engagements
"The chart below is my best attempt to help people visualize how the Federal Reserve could amass almost $200 Billion in Losses Remittances Due to the Treasury over the last two years These accrued losses are now shrinking as rates cuts commence - but the current annualized post cut interest payment the Fed owes on its Open Market Operations is still running them $181 Billion 😳 @peruvian_bull @DarioCpx"
X Link 2024-10-02T06:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@AznPwr86 @peruvian_bull @DarioCpx @FinanceLancelot Rejection of short term Bills seems unlikely but that is what the curve is suggesting. We have never really done a successful rate cut with SOFR before 🤷♂"
X Link 2024-10-02T06:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Just a reminder that we have not yet completed a successful rate cut cycle in a 🟣SOFR world🤷♂ The last time we started cutting the⚪Funds Rate we saw the infamous Sept 19' SOFR breakdown @FinanceLancelot leading to immediate QE and hundreds of Billions of🔴Emergency Repo for the Banks SOFR spiked yesterday🤨"
X Link 2024-10-02T06:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
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