@MagicCompounds Avatar @MagicCompounds Claybrook Capital

Claybrook Capital posts on X about $blnd, $acfn, $kspi, $srad the most. They currently have [---] followers and [--] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence stocks 32.89% finance 10.53% technology brands 6.58% countries 3.95% currencies 2.63% cryptocurrencies 1.32%

Social topic influence $blnd #10, $acfn 9.21%, $kspi #4, $srad #12, imo 3.95%, $googl 2.63%, $adyey 2.63%, core 2.63%, saas #697, market 2.63%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @taylorstcap @degenlanecap @bobspaysubstack @zoomyzoomm @corpcapture @goldilock1969 @buysideaireview @buccocapital @equitybrian @multimismanaged @obsidiancap1 @timothyhliu5 @boringbiz @tintincapital @pitdesi @compound248 @evrgn11112231 @brndmg @alaminosinv @mikefritzell

Top assets mentioned Blend Labs, Inc. (BLND) Kaspi.kz Joint Stock Company (KSPI) Sportradar Group AG (SRAD) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Shopify Inc (SHOP) Ormat Technologies, Inc. (ORA) Now Coin (NOW) DLocal Limited (DLO) Alibaba Group (BABA) UiPath, Inc. (PATH) NVIDIA (NVIDIA)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Think $ORA has a big year in [--]. Lotta big boys talking about geothermal past few days and google investing in Fervo. Feel like geo gets 10% of the attention a lot of these other sources of energy do"
X Link 2026-01-07T22:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"RT @obsidiancap1: A lot of paper hands this AM. As per Jefferies - 11:1 sell to buy ratio in software from LO accounts. Completely price"
X Link 2026-01-29T15:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"So now Adyen is almost a buy again huh $adyey"
X Link 2026-01-30T14:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$BLND Posting this here this sell off feels very over done. I am not referring to the industry wide SaaS sell off there are certainly names that will see their terminal value eroded but Blend is not one of those in my opinion. I will be posting my longer form writeup when it is completed but this encapsulates my core thesis. Another point the market is right to punish the poor capital allocation and financial discipline of many SaaS companies but Blend has already been punished by the market for this and greatly streamlined operations. Why Blend has right to be a net benefactor of AI: 1."
X Link 2026-01-30T15:33Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@TaylorStCap @DegenLaneCap"
X Link 2026-01-30T15:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$KSPI Haven't talked about this one in a bit still a large holding and have been doing some work on them this week. My thoughts now that we have Hepsi deal closed: [--]. Kaspi is a prime example of longer term capex plans (which are not guaranteed to generate large ROI but given managements product/customer focused obsession large data sets and able to apply similar experience curve does give them a solid right to win imo). Strategically this also increases their growth runway substantially net +ive [--]. While the integration of third part payments is in the immediate a negative it will increase"
X Link 2026-01-31T17:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Someone just bought some $BLND"
X Link 2026-01-26T15:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@BuysideAIreview @BoringBiz_ Yeah I like having tegus integrated tbh"
X Link 2026-02-04T23:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Tintincapital Vibe coding vail rn"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@pitdesi This is an $Adyen post"
X Link 2026-02-09T22:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@compound248 Thinking Adyen was the best opp in my book after getting dragged down with SaaS. 15% position now"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"What does kaspis share price do if a deal gets signed between Russia Ukraine $KSPI Interesting point brought up on a recent VIC post is they could likely buy back the entire float in 2-3 years from FCF generation will try to put together my deep dive thoughts in next month or so and post them here. $BLND first tho https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1999152911478128697 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1999152911478128697"
X Link 2025-12-11T16:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Well little more to it than that imo. Russia Ukraine war is an overhang on the stock due to potential macro headwinds (you can imagine situations where Kazakh gets effected - attacks by Ukraine on CPC for example have already cut their oil output 10% as they are somewhat intertwined in terms of offtake routes). Additionally it would open up the ability to expand into Ukraine through their existing infra which you mention. They also are expanding into turkey currently Through Hepsi Not a direct impact as Im sure the stock you mentioned is but almost certainly involved on 2nd+ order basis."
X Link 2025-12-11T20:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@bobspaysubstack $adyey"
X Link 2026-02-03T18:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@evrgn11112231 Think same general logic applies to strip and Adyen - less so legacy players bc their data infra is all jumbled to begin with"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@TaylorStCap Thoughts on $SRAD"
X Link 2026-02-10T18:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Just to chime in without giving away too much Im buysider on FI side Moodys jacked our annual cost up by [--] figs and although there was a little grumbling about it DoR signed on for another few years. Im sure you have mentioned this but people also pay for the network analyst access etc not sure how ai replaces that. And if you dont think you need to have talked to the ratings agencies go talk to your boomer pm and get back to me https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021336950402146804 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021336950402146804"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@TaylorStCap @brn__dmg Thanks Ill do some work on it I have a tracker on $SRAD I would assume they deserve a bit of a premium to GENI given more diverse set of contracts. But to your point the easier and probably juicier growth is ahead for geni no"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"The greedy in me was trying to devise a way for $SRAD to take that but may have some antitrust issues atp. I think everything you said makes sense. The regulatory uncertainty doesnt handicap the thesis to me just a tail risk as you said. Seems market liked srads acquisitions and not genis. Any color https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021362815102271602 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021362815102271602"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Fair Im irresponsible. [----] feels kinda ridiculous and vertical SaaS specifically in slower moving / more regulated industries should not be getting puked like this. Its not like $BLND traded at $NOW multiples either. But I assume you just mean you arent trying to catch a falling knife here when everything may continue to dump https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016896498928062604 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016896498928062604"
X Link 2026-01-29T15:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@AlaminosInv @DegenLaneCap @corpcapture @TaylorStCap Its pretty hard to guide wrt mortgage side fwiw"
X Link 2026-02-03T22:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@MikeFritzell $BLND"
X Link 2026-02-05T04:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@atelicinvest $BLND has a lot of these imo"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@pernasresearch Building a $KSPI App Store tracker - trying to find a way to discern if ai implementation is seeing affects still a work in progress. Job posting tracker as well as has been mentioned"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@jay_21_ Adyen"
X Link 2025-08-18T17:41Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@SixSigmaCapital Feel like dlocal loses latam to Adyen and stripe lt no"
X Link 2025-09-04T16:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@bobspaysubstack Any thoughts on Shopify partnership. Jeff U (lol) call seemed like it was more a benefit to shop and defensive to Adyen. Not sure how that can be flipped"
X Link 2025-09-18T21:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@bobspaysubstack Agreed to your points but the counterpoint is the opposite could be true no I.e. Shopify payments (stripe) expands into some of Shopify enterprise e comm clients. But my general thought is its harder to go up market than down on payments. Thoughts there"
X Link 2025-09-18T22:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@HyperTechInvest Feel like some of your thesis building is far more similar to the guy on the right no Not even hating but nebius and amd Idk"
X Link 2025-09-19T19:04Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"@zoomyzoomm @MartinShkreli I have never gotten an intelligent thesis on quantum maybe a hot take but all the people I know texting me about quantum were also texting me about AMD signs"
X Link 2025-09-26T22:15Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@zoomyzoomm @buccocapital Buy Adyen instead"
X Link 2025-09-27T03:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$BABA LEAPS"
X Link 2025-10-10T15:27Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@StockSavvyShay This shows Shay has never made a model in excel lol"
X Link 2025-10-15T03:44Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Curious of $ACFN owners who consider it a data center play. Please explain why $ACFN"
X Link 2025-09-22T15:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@ContrarianCurse Fail to see how any of the M&A roll up strats work in payments it all comes back to stripe and Adyen. The whole problem is friction between counterparties along the payment life cycle and then these companies solve that by mashing different products together Idk"
X Link 2025-10-04T13:24Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Buying more $ACFN today. Will drop detailed thoughts in next week or so. But it comes down to will they sign another contract in ntm Will they complete an acquisition ntm Will they keep GRR 90% and tap into operating leverage. Feel very confident about three and I think likely one of [--] or [--] happens 80% confidence call it"
X Link 2025-10-15T14:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Story is essentially a when not if atp imo. A deal of similar size to their most recent one would imply 19mm revs [----] fy by my modeling. Say they get taken private at a 5x multiple (which would be no premium to current and recent levels or precedents) that gets you to about a 50% return over 50% return in [---] years. If you want to assume it should trade at a 20x earnings multiple that gets you around 40/share on 25% earnings margin on that same revenue"
X Link 2025-10-17T20:17Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@RyshabTalks How does that work"
X Link 2025-10-18T16:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Any thoughts on $BLND they have best tech in a vertical where tech has been rather nascent. Strong founder led team. Cored up their operations towards higher margin segments. Mortgage recovery would be the obvious catalyst but they have also diversified out a bit. SBC is iffy but maybe they grow into that"
X Link 2025-10-19T22:03Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"I agree. It is probably a necessary negative though. If we zoom out (and bear with me here) Kazakhstan becomes more advanced well regulated and likely economically powerful (which hinges on some other things but I think is likely over next 10). Regulations like this are inherent. They are a short term negative for a long term positive (provided they can fend off competitive pressures)"
X Link 2025-10-20T19:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@TMTLongShort Guess its not $PATH"
X Link 2025-10-28T21:18Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@BowTiedFeline Working on something on EQT. I just cant see them not being the winner here given Tobys marketing / sales ability their vertical integration and IG rating. I get EXE as well but it feels like just taking the 1b option. Thoughts"
X Link 2025-11-07T14:51Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Stepping in on $BLND here"
X Link 2025-11-07T16:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@GeoInvesting @shantaram83 Any talk of $ACFN"
X Link 2025-11-11T19:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"MY $ACFN VIC Writeup. Stock price for IRR was around [-----]. I think the recent sell off was fairly unwarranted and presents a compelling opportunity. Summary: While Acorn Energy has been written up well in the past it has been several years since the last serious look. Following a 40% drawdown post-Q3 results shares now offer a compelling setup. Acorn operates a recurring-revenue high-margin monitoring business for standby generators through its OmniMetrixsubsidiary. Recent selling pressure was largely driven by retail momentum unwinding while fundamentals remain intact. With strong"
X Link 2025-11-12T01:17Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@JaredKubin Hey Jared this and you are awesome and helpful to a young analyst and aspiring manager. You probably have posted this all throughout the past months but what would be your go to foundation for upskilling with ai/vibe coding for a fundamental analyst Thanks again"
X Link 2025-11-13T14:51Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@EquityBrian $BLND"
X Link 2025-11-15T01:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@EquityBrian $ACFN"
X Link 2025-11-15T01:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Nascent industry in a cyclical downturn has allowed the company to clean up their operations and streamline their asset portfolio. They offer a superior tech stack to mortgage originators and have been using ML/AI to enhance product quality for years now. Additionally they have added a consumer banking product which diversifies revenue streams from housing cyclicality while still leveraging their core competencies tapping into a scope advantage. They have cleaned up the cost structure by switching to a partnership model and divesting their title business. Additionally Haveli holds a 23% stake"
X Link 2025-11-15T02:32Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"ADP reports November slide. $BLND catches bid. Markets are somewhat efficient (this wont hold)"
X Link 2025-11-18T14:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@MultiMismanaged Should be up way more no"
X Link 2025-11-18T15:15Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Flycatcher @Silent01010 Incorrect. Section [---] sir"
X Link 2025-11-19T11:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Jensen Sundar = big dog guys may be on to something here. $NVIDIA $GOOG"
X Link 2025-11-26T22:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@zoomyzoomm @standuquesne Goat trader undisputed goat investor different I think no"
X Link 2025-11-28T02:39Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@KyleAdamsStocks $BLND"
X Link 2025-11-29T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@quantLR Im of the mindset that if any of these guys were remotely good as analysts they would have a job at a hedge fund / not be blatantly sharing their ideas maybe Im a hater but I dont really see an in between"
X Link 2025-12-01T00:06Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@dorse054 Pretty valid take no Regardless of your opinion on Nvidia vs google it leaves less room for them"
X Link 2025-12-01T02:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@zoomyzoomm $BLND duh"
X Link 2025-12-01T03:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@JohnBen45187502 @mvcinvesting Please explain I have my thoughts interested in yours"
X Link 2025-12-01T16:52Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"For sure. Not impressed by lack of depth in peoples knowledge but w/e Comes down to cornered resource due to supply constrained market (power and gpus) Plus counter positioned vs hyper scalers (they are not incentivized to build large clusters as they offer heterogenous cloud services) - so the quality of compute will be better vs hyper scalers until they commit resources to dedicated inference/training clusters for cloud customers. Or until breakthrough change the current scaling regimes Regardless not impressed with the simplicity and lack of knowledge of most of the nbis holders"
X Link 2025-12-01T17:33Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@amitisinvesting @RentYourStocks Context window"
X Link 2025-12-02T18:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"My detailed thoughts / thesis on $ACFN All critiques are welcomed Will be trying to post more ideas I have in the pipeline here now that earnings has died down for a bit. All ideas are for my personal account. DMs are always open to network or talk ideas. Maybe I will do a substack for now horrible thread of images"
X Link 2025-12-10T01:12Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@Midnight_Captl Got it thanks. I have only been short has lost me more money than its made me so staying sideline now"
X Link 2025-12-18T16:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Not sure if this is really a have to but I see your point on the margins. It also increases their scope of offerings significantly - which to my knowledge can help their value prop to larger dealers. I see your logic but I think that would be more the case if it was within their core competency. Open to pushback"
X Link 2026-01-07T01:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Fair points on one hand I would have preferred the type of deal you are discussing due to the aforementioned on the other hand this could lead to more total gross profit dollars. Would like to see them sign a contract more similar to the telco or execute on some m&a in the NTM. That said I think prior to this the market wasnt pricing in any deal in [----]. so I think some uptick makes sense. Magnitude obviously is up for debate and would not be surprised if [--] is the cap on share price until further clarity. I think the monitoring split is fine to me its basically just them charging a lower"
X Link 2026-01-07T02:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Interested in any whispers as to why because I had heard solid things about the previous CRO - that said I feel like a critique of them (that lead to the title blunder imo) was not having enough industry vets and too many Silicon Valley types. This does seem to be a remedy to that of sorts"
X Link 2026-01-15T22:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Hey so high level I am constructive on it. There is still a decent amount of ambiguity as to what the revenue opportunity is but you are definitely right in regards to the TAM expansion. Few things to take note of: This will lead to competition in other less nascent markets It will lower margins overall (but will increase GP dollars so big benefit imo) I would say if the deal plays out as hoped yes the stock is under appreciating it but given its a ways out before anything starts impacting financials and a lack of full clarity on how it will play out competitively I think the pricing makes"
X Link 2026-01-20T23:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Churn notices have stabilized w/ no new in [----] I think that a large part of share losses was due to customers switching to very cheap or free alternatives to preserve costs at low volumes could see some sort of rebound on share volumes . Comsumer definitely is a big part of the story now. I think the key will be if they can meaningfully penetrate wallets over the next [--] years while volumes rebound. If they can push value per loan in to triple digits the market and street are underestimating their growth. Still an if but they have the necessary foundation and have taken a lot of positive"
X Link 2026-01-27T05:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@ClayBon65310 Well your usd growth investments are all nominal right So I think you just look at it in terms of depreciation vs dollar. (which will factor in inflation) I think kaspi still growing 16% y/y in usd terms despite smartphone and macro/rate headwinds"
X Link 2026-01-27T05:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@DegenLaneCap @TaylorStCap Yeah this is it"
X Link 2026-01-27T22:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@buccocapital $KSPI I know it got fawned over on some shitty value subreddit for being hidden growth play but there some truth to it - strong management and product just a shit geography which is changing slowly"
X Link 2025-12-07T03:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@DegenLaneCap @goldilock1969 This 1000% and someone has some info"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Will update thoughts when more info comes/have chance to chat with mgmt but this is obviously a positive for $ACFN while it remains to be seen the exact scale of the partnership the scope expansion should not only help grow top line but further entrench their value proposition to customers / multi product dealers. My prior thoughts: https://open.substack.com/pub/magiccompounds/p/acfn-thesis-and-deep-diver=733w8o&utm_medium=ios https://open.substack.com/pub/magiccompounds/p/acfn-thesis-and-deep-diver=733w8o&utm_medium=ios"
X Link 2026-01-05T18:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"This goes for stock pitches too of course IMO it should be considered quite rude in most contexts to post or send someone a wall of 100% AI-generated text. Here read this thing I didnt care enough about to express myself. IMO it should be considered quite rude in most contexts to post or send someone a wall of 100% AI-generated text. Here read this thing I didnt care enough about to express myself"
X Link 2026-01-12T17:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@dennisihong"
X Link 2026-01-30T15:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@ErinCollard @MultiMismanaged"
X Link 2026-01-30T18:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

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