@LeopoldHeinrich Avatar @LeopoldHeinrich Heinrich Leopold

Heinrich Leopold posts on X about debt, rates, bitcoin, china the most. They currently have [------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance countries cryptocurrencies currencies stocks travel destinations automotive brands technology brands us election celebrities

Social topic influence debt, rates, bitcoin, china, japan, yield curve, inflation, fed, has been, germany

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @guyadami @factset @askslim @nadiainbc @mrktcall @echtirre @voltinocro @lizyoungstrat @sofi @bennollweather @judah47 @cctankumo @beckettunite @ciaspole1 @trendbullish @suicide95518428 @kobeissiletter @jwhl12 @efrommhpduehr @digitalnilesh

Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"In [----] long laterals improved well productivity and cash flow for shale companies. However this time well productivity slumped and cannot compensate for lower prices. Hence a steep slump for free cash flow and equities can be expected. #natgas #oott"
X Link 2019-02-11T07:22Z 14.3K followers, [--] engagements

"The Fed wants to help #bitcoin with lower interest rates and dollar yet inadvertently helps also commodities. #oott"
X Link 2021-05-21T15:49Z 14.3K followers, [--] engagements

"The #natgas:interest ratio signals the increasing challenge for the Fed to control the gigantic bond bubble. The parabolic shape of below curve indicates that the situation will escalate and we will end up with record high commodity prices at low interest rates soon. #oott"
X Link 2021-07-10T08:36Z 14.3K followers, [--] engagements

"As we are close to cycle peak interest rates will start to fall again correlated with shale companies ( blue line OXY) which will trigger an US corporate bond crisis of epic proportions as trillions of shale assets are at stake. #oott"
X Link 2021-07-19T09:37Z 14.3K followers, [--] engagements

"Ratio #Natgas:corporate bonds(MUT) soared as capital flows out from natgas investments due to high decline rates resource depletion and overall declining economic activity. Margins are simply too unattractive and the market has to adjust with higher prices"
X Link 2021-07-24T08:02Z 14.3K followers, [--] engagements

"#gold:#shop ratio steeply rising. Looks like gold is the safe haven in this environment. Check the parabolic MACD. There is more to come. #NQ_F"
X Link 2022-02-03T17:13Z 14.3K followers, [--] engagements

"Huge decline in #natgas inventories due to cold weather falling -274bcf or -12.2% below [--] year average. Besides weather bond market liquidity is collapsing which seriously hampers financing of new production. https://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/intraday-natural-gas-storage.htmlm=1 https://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/intraday-natural-gas-storage.htmlm=1"
X Link 2022-02-08T11:21Z 14.3K followers, [--] engagements

"Corporate bonds are in steep decline which gives stocks little chance to recover. There is no dip buying possible. #NQ_F"
X Link 2022-02-11T07:28Z 14.3K followers, [--] engagements

"Massive break out of interest rates as global capital stampedes out of Treasury bonds to pay for energy. As current accounts slumped worldwide Central Banks do not have surplus funds to invest. This is a serious challenge for asset markets.#oott"
X Link 2022-03-25T18:20Z 14.3K followers, [--] engagements

"#UNG:#ARKK ratio going wild +13.12% in one day as capital storms out of techs/assets into #natgas. This is likely not over yet and we have now the phase when panic short covering sets in. This emerges more and more as a major #BlackSwan event and sea change in capital markets"
X Link 2022-04-18T16:50Z 14.3K followers, [--] engagements

"As corporate bonds are imploding there is no cash to buy oilwhich falls over a cliff #oott"
X Link 2022-04-25T15:04Z 14.3K followers, [--] engagements

"It looks like corporate bonds will be falling in earnest over the next weeks. Only when the fall is over it makes sense to step in and buy assets ( equities property cryptos mining gold/silver.) again until the next peak is reached ( blue line). #economy"
X Link 2022-05-23T06:38Z 14.3K followers, [--] engagements

"#OOTT Historically there is a strong correlation between crude oil (red) and US Treasury rates (blue) as high crude oil prices weaken Asian exporters trade balance and ability to hoard Treasuries. Given the steep fall of crude Treasury rates should have fallen steeply too. 1/3"
X Link 2022-10-10T09:15Z 14.3K followers, [--] engagements

"#EconomyMonetary Whenever there has been a liquidity crunch Asian currencies slumped and US Treasuries (lower yield red circles) strengthened. This cycle Asian countries can sell their currency reserves to mitigate the pressure on their currencies (blue circle= higher 10y T)"
X Link 2023-02-17T08:37Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements

"Triple top $vix catapult break out which is an important signal. For the first time ever Fed rate increases were not followed by a rise of M2 (blue) due to safe haven buying of US bonds (blue circle right) which means the US economy is falling into a deep recession(red line)"
X Link 2023-02-21T17:47Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements

"#vix Until [----] the South Korean Won (blue) was inversely correlated to US Treasury yields (greenred circle) as Asian exporters had to scramble for the safety of US bonds. This has changed in [--]. Global exporters are selling their Treasury hoard than buying US bonds(blue circle)"
X Link 2023-02-22T08:08Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements

"#economyMonetary China exports (red) and US money supply (blue) reflect exactly the deal made by Nixon and Deng Xiao Ping decades ago. The US exports capital and China exports goods financed with the trade surplus. As China does not buy Treasuries it cannot export goods any more"
X Link 2023-03-03T15:08Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary Eliminating small banks (red) would be fatal as large banks (green) have stopped lending down to 0.9% credit growth (-5.5% in real terms). Small banks alone are supporting the economy"
X Link 2023-04-01T06:03Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary Large banks (green) need a liquid Treasury market as high Treasury yields (blue) take out the floor of large banks lending (red circle)"
X Link 2023-04-01T06:26Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary In the last two weeks only large banks (green) have gained some deposits benefitting from the outflow from small banks (red). Overall the trend is for an historic flight from ALL banks. It is more than redistribution of deposits"
X Link 2023-04-01T07:24Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary Sharply declining M2 is leading import (red) producer (green) and consumer (lila) prices into deep deflation. The monetary situation is historic and is likely to go to unseen extremes. There is simply no capital formation in the pipeline"
X Link 2023-04-16T07:01Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary Philly Fed General Activity Diffusion Index (green) fell steeply to [---] firmly in recessionary territory. A significant increase of M2 growth (blue) only can trigger a recovery which is far off sight"
X Link 2023-04-20T15:10Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary Charge-off on credit card loans (green) soared +55% in 4q22. This is firmly in recessionary territory and the highest within the last [--] years. Only higher monetary growth M2 (blue) will bring relief"
X Link 2023-04-25T20:11Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary Contrary to the Wall Street narrative large banks (red -6%) are losing faster deposits than small banks (green -4%). This liquidity crisis hits ALL banks at historic dimensions"
X Link 2023-05-03T06:56Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements

"#OOTT The energy eco system swiftly implodes right before our eyes as the cycle reaches its bottom around the summer (red lines). #propane is leading the pack falling again this morning despite a slight recovery of other oil products"
X Link 2023-05-04T05:37Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary The Cass freight expenditures index (red) followed correctly M2 monetary growth (blue) into recessionary territory. The music has stopped playing yet some are still dancing. A recovery is still at least six months away"
X Link 2023-05-05T14:35Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary German wholesales prices are for the first time below zero -0.5% . For the second half deflation will be the surprise"
X Link 2023-05-15T13:31Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary Again the Empire State Manufacturing survey (red) did follow the lead of declining M2 monetary growth capital formation (blue) down to recessionary levels. If monetary growth does not recover there is little chance for a market recovery"
X Link 2023-05-15T17:56Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary Federal interest payments soared from $500bn per quarter to $920bn ($ [---] trn yearly and $2trn more than last year). Most payments go back into the US economy yet one quarter of interest payments goes to foreign countries receiving a $1 trn of interest payments"
X Link 2023-05-20T18:00Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#oott #economymonetary Diesel sales price (green) continues to slump -30.3% year over year to recessionary levels. Unless monetary M2 growth (blue) resumes this trend will carry on"
X Link 2023-05-23T08:00Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary A surge in Treasury yields (green 10y Treasury) triggers a banking crisis a few days later (Bank of America blue) as losses on bank's balance sheet are emerging. Banks institutions insurance companies hedge funds.are sitting on trillion of paper losses"
X Link 2023-05-23T10:23Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements

"#OOTT Despite all the bullish talk on the media #crude continues to slump down -34.9% year over year and clearly in recessionary territory. Steeply declining monetary M2 capital formation suggests it will go much lower during the current cycle bottom"
X Link 2023-05-26T07:25Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary Recent data confirm the trend of credit contraction even at large banks (green). Usually at this point of the credit cycle (declining inflation) we should see strong liquidity yet the Fed cannot re-direct global capital flows into the US economy"
X Link 2023-05-27T05:00Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary Charge offs on commercial real estate loans (green) have jumped the most ever higher than in any other financial crisis charge offs on business loans (lila) and credit card loans (red) are following closely. This shapes up as the most dramatic cycle ever"
X Link 2023-05-28T07:13Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary German import prices plunged -7% year over year into deflationary territory. There is deflation in the pipeline which will be soon apparent in consumer inflation too "
X Link 2023-05-31T07:08Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary Until [----] US debt (blue) has grown in line with GDP growth (red). From [----] on debt has grown much faster and today net new debt of $2.7 trn per year is needed to generate $0.270trn of GDP growth"
X Link 2023-06-01T04:55Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#OOTT Energy (red diesel -33.4% yoy) follows M2 monetary growth now firmly in recessionary territory. As M2 is in decline a recovery is still at least 6-12 months away"
X Link 2023-06-06T05:02Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary The first week of June the Treasury General Account showed record $3.50trn new issues and $3.07trn redemptions for a net increase of $457 bn debtwhich increased to $31.921trn from $31.464trn this month and up $992bn during the fiscal year https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/daily-treasury-statement/ https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/daily-treasury-statement/"
X Link 2023-06-10T06:21Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary Over the last [--] years the correlation between Japanese Yen (blue) and US Treasury rates (green) has been high as Japan does not produce a trade surplus anymore and is forced to sell Treasuries for stabilizing its currency. Yen weakness will trigger higher rates"
X Link 2023-06-21T08:57Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary The US government is now testing how far it can go with new debt issues. As Japan and China cannot absorb any new debt due to their weak currencies a steep drop of the Japanese Yen (blue) has triggered an epic jump in rates (5y Treasuries green)"
X Link 2023-06-27T15:20Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"@MXAddict Wall Street always has feared higher oil prices and did fight OPEC. Yet since the advent of shale Wall Street is in the same boat with OPEC trying to push up oil prices at any occasion. However bond markets object higher oil prices. And bond markets are powerful"
X Link 2023-07-09T06:02Z 13.6K followers, [--] engagements

"Agree with the comment. The announced 30C have never materialised and London can get barely above 20C. It becomes more and more obvious that the MetOffice 'wishes' to have much higher temperatures instead of forecasting the accurate weather"
X Link 2023-07-09T06:17Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"Agree with the comment. The announced 30C have never materialised and London can get barely above 20C. It becomes more and more obvious that the MetOffice 'wishes' to have much higher temperatures instead of forecasting the accurate weather"
X Link 2023-07-09T06:17Z 13.8K followers, [----] engagements

"@arbitrage789 @wealthpotion It is not so easy anymore. Increasing the deficit would increase net debt issues which will propel interest rates even higher. Imagine mortgage rates of 10% . This will crash the housing market. The government has gone too far"
X Link 2023-07-10T04:29Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"#natgas production shows weakness falling below 100bcf/d especially compared to the last year spread which is rapidly closing in and year over year losses will come likely soon. Also last year there has been maintenance so maintenance is irrelevant"
X Link 2023-07-11T18:31Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"This includes losses of large ($-400bn) and small banks ($-235bn) "
X Link 2023-07-15T06:16Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary Kansas City manufacturing production index fell to a recessionary low of [---]. There is a growing divergence between labor and manufacturing export prices. data. At some point this must be resolved"
X Link 2023-07-27T19:03Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary US 10y rates are jumping with a weakening Japanese Yen (blue). A strong was the engine of US growth as Japan recycled its huge trade surplus back into US assets. Yet this is gone as Japan has no trade surplus anymore. The goose laying golden eggs is gone"
X Link 2023-08-01T16:51Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary A weak Japanese Yen (blue) is propelling US government bond rates (green) higher and higher"
X Link 2023-08-03T07:01Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary The bond bubble of now [--] years is unbelievable up until [----] nearly five fold. As the Treasury market weakens (right chart) also corporate bonds (left chart) start showing weakness"
X Link 2023-08-05T05:28Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary Again Japanese (green) and Chinese Yuan (blue) are plunging to multi year lows. Global exporters must start buying raw materials for the second half year and must use their dollar hoard to pay for dollar imports to produce for non dollar exports"
X Link 2023-08-10T18:18Z 13.9K followers, [----] engagements

"@GaryHaubold Even as bulls a jubilant for the recent bear market rally the higher oil prices decreased liquidity even further which will put much more pressure on oil prices over the next weeks. For higher oil prices market liquidity is necessary too. Tight supply alone does not help"
X Link 2023-08-12T14:42Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary The Japanese did weaken over the last two years by -33% the most in Oct [----]. The Japanese trade is undercut by China which can produce at much lower costs than Japan. This is likely to escalate over the next two months which will propel US rates much higher"
X Link 2023-08-12T19:18Z 13.6K followers, [----] engagements

"#oott Higher energy prices have a significant impact on long term interest rates. The recent bear market rally brought diesel (red) from -33% yoy to -15% yet interest rates soared from +10% yoy to way over 50%. 1% change in energy means 2.5% higher rates"
X Link 2023-08-13T05:56Z 13.8K followers, [--] engagements

"@TheNorthernH It is NOT about inflation it is about long term interest rates which have been soaring since June due to changes in global capital flows triggered by trade deficits of global exporters. 1% higher oil means 2.5% higher long term rates - a big change from the last cycle"
X Link 2023-08-13T12:49Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary The week started with a mighty fall of the Yuan (blue) going to [--] y lows which triggered a spike in interest rates to 4.17% reaching [--] y highs. China Japan South Korea. have to buy raw materials for the new season slipping into trade deficits again"
X Link 2023-08-14T04:53Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"China has to buy raw materials for $1trn per year which depletes by far its US trade surplus of $600bn. This is why China is short of dollars despite a vast USD surplus"
X Link 2023-08-14T05:22Z 14K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary A rapidly weakening Chinese Yuan (blue) propels US interest rates (green 5y) to a [--] year high. There is gigantic competition for market share in the global economy. China needs more exports to prop up its economy"
X Link 2023-08-15T07:10Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary Massive break out of TIPS (blue) and 10y Treasury yields (green) to [--] year highs. In my view this will escalate until October as global exporters have to buy raw materials for the new production cycle. Wall Street has expected a decline like in the [----] cycle"
X Link 2023-08-15T10:06Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary The trickle of currency devaluation of global exporters accelerates. Yuan (blue) Thai Baht (green) . all start to devaluate. It is similar to the Asian crisis [----] yet this time banks have a lot of Treasuries to sell for defending their currencies"
X Link 2023-08-15T14:36Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements

"@ciaspole1 There will be some dislocations which are underestimated by Wall Street and the Fed. Sep/Oct are historically months of tight liquidity - and this has just started. In my view it will be difficult yet of course I cannot say exactly how far this will be going"
X Link 2023-08-17T14:40Z 14.3K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary As long term bond yields (green) are escalating Banks ( Citigroup blue) are in free fall. Devaluating bonds mean a diminished capital base and less ability to lend"
X Link 2023-08-17T16:48Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary TIPS are soaring. I wonder what that means. Deflation"
X Link 2023-08-17T16:54Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements

"@MichaelMOTTCM @spurgeon9196 In August they did come down. In my view they will plunge over the next three months as interest rates will be escalating. The Treasury has issued $1.3trn new debt over the last [--] days of which $950bn have been already spent and Asian exporters are likely to sell $600bn"
X Link 2023-08-17T19:18Z 15.2K followers, [---] engagements

"Good point. Difficulties in China will hit the US debt market too. China is too big and important. China [----] is different from Thailand [----]. And above all China has tons of Treasuries to sell and can hit US markets very hard. Politicians have to work out a common solution"
X Link 2023-08-18T05:39Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary Surging US long term interest rates (green 10y T) were the last straw for the Chinese property sector (Country Garden blue). China has $2trn dollar offshore debt which it can default on. This is not Thailand [----] with a few billions of dollar debt"
X Link 2023-08-18T12:07Z 14K followers, [---] engagements

"#TSLA (blue) is interest sensitive too down big with surging interest rates (green). The correction is lasting likely until October and can be really deep"
X Link 2023-08-18T12:20Z 13.7K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary South Korean trade balance slumped steeply over the latest years. The dramatic swing of $+5bn to $-5bn on average per month leaves South Korea with $10bn less cash ($120bn per year) to buy US Treasuries. This change is the reason Treasury yields are escalating"
X Link 2023-08-20T10:45Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"The epic swing of the trade balance $+5bn to $-5bn on average per month leaves South Korea with $10bn less cash ($120bn per year) to buy US Treasuries. This change of global capital flows of global exporters is the reason Treasury yields will be escalating over the next months"
X Link 2023-08-20T10:56Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary Hang Seng (HK50 blue) slumped deeply this morning driving up US interest rates (10y T green) again. As the liquidity environment remains tight this is likely to carry on until October. China is defending its economy and currency by selling US assets"
X Link 2023-08-21T06:43Z 13.9K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary As US interest rates (5yT green) are soaring to [--] year highs Shanghai (blue) comes under increasing pressure shaving -10% within the last two weeks"
X Link 2023-08-22T05:48Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary TIPS rates are soaring +25% in just a few days. Extreme TIP rates signal extreme market moves ahead. In Oct [----] (red point) TIPS indicated extreme illiquid market conditions (deflation) before the crash Nov [----]. In Aug [----] the signal was for extreme liquidity"
X Link 2023-08-22T11:54Z 13.6K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary As US interest rates are soaring (5yY green) the pressure on US banks (blue) is escalating down -10% in [--] days"
X Link 2023-08-22T17:52Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary Mortgage rates jumped to 7.31% the highest since [----]. The mortgage index instead fell to a [----] low. How long can the housing market sustain this"
X Link 2023-08-23T12:51Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"'Cold wave' in Spain and Italy by end of August. The worldwide cooling trend continues. Cold Northern Europe over nearly the entire summer so far no Gulf of Mexico hurricanes snow fall in the Alps beginning and end of August.evidence of a welcome cool down is everywhere"
X Link 2023-08-25T07:08Z 13.9K followers, [----] engagements

"@SRSroccoReport Oil is always highly cash generating. However NGL prices are extremely low (12 mil bpd production $20 per barrel) ditto for #natgas ($20 per boe). So producers are far below free cash flow yet still above cash costs. In practical terms oil companies are losing value now"
X Link 2023-08-25T18:32Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary #crude oil and the energy eco system soared in Japanese +25% from July which significantly increases the Japanese trade deficit. This forces Japan to sell its Treasury hoard increasing long term US interest rates and weakening the "
X Link 2023-08-27T16:02Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary As Japanese (green) and Chinese Yuan (blue) are relentlessly slumping US interest rates (orange) catapult higher. This is in stark contrast to previous cycles when US interest rates (= high demand for Treasuries) fell when Asian currencies slumped"
X Link 2023-08-28T11:10Z 13.6K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary Despite massive interventions (red points) Japanese (green) and Chinese Yuan (blue) are stampeding to multi decades low. Central banks can intervene in the short term yet are powerless versus the trillions of adverse trade flows"
X Link 2023-08-28T11:18Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary Massive break down of the Japanese (blue) to over [-----] per dollar. US interest rates (green) will likely follow which will be a challenge for asset markets"
X Link 2023-08-29T12:09Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary The Chinese Yuan (blue) broke down first and the Japanese (green) followed quickly. China has significant Japanese Yen reserves which it can sell to stop the slide of its currency. When the Yuan collapses it will take many currencies with it"
X Link 2023-08-29T12:48Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary The big dilemma for Asian exporters is that export prices (Singapore export prices -12.5% at [--] year low left chart) are falling much faster than import prices (Singapore import prices -7.5% right chart) leading to trade deficits and weak currencies"
X Link 2023-08-30T05:50Z 13.9K followers, [----] engagements

"This is the root of global exporter's inability to buy more US assets and increase US M2 monetary growth"
X Link 2023-08-30T06:12Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"Global PMIs are steeply declining. Especially falling new and export orders reveal a prolonged economic cycle low"
X Link 2023-09-01T14:27Z 13.6K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary UK housing market is under serious pressure. Lower interest rates are urgently required"
X Link 2023-09-01T17:08Z 13.7K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary In ALL previous cycles (red points) there has been an increased liquidity during a cyclical correction which pulled out the US economy from any recession. However during the current cycle liquidity does not increase and is still falling"
X Link 2023-09-03T07:07Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"A recession has been so far a speed pump for the US economy and markets in previous cycles which is not coming now"
X Link 2023-09-03T07:09Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"The 'greenhouse' theory exists since [----] and temperatures remained low for [---] years despite a massive increase of CO2 emissions. [--] years ago temps started to rise yet it could also explained by the increase of weather stations in urban aereas which have higher temps and CO2"
X Link 2023-09-05T07:52Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary Japanese is breaking down again despite all interventions swaps. As the weak trade balance bites again authorities stand little chance to halt the decline"
X Link 2023-09-05T11:39Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary As the Japanese (blue) collapses again US interest rates (5yTreasuries green) soar. Sep/Oct is the time global exporters have to import raw materials and are likely to experience a trade deficit and to sell US assets (last year $360bn)"
X Link 2023-09-05T19:11Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"Add net new US debt issues of $1.45 trn over the last three months which gives a perfect storm for an interest rate spike by mid October"
X Link 2023-09-05T19:14Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary Should the dollar (DXY green) break out a major breakdown of #bitcoin can be expected"
X Link 2023-09-06T10:18Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary A spike in the dollar/yuan rate (blue) triggered another spike in US interest rates (5y green). Interest rates are flirting with [--] year highs which will be a big challenge for markets"
X Link 2023-09-07T12:40Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"Netherland left wing party at only 2.2% of votes in recent polls for the November elections. Having been for decades the dominant force in European politics Socialists are running out of voters everywhere"
X Link 2023-09-07T14:50Z 13.6K followers, [----] engagements

"@ElixirSolidity Yet the Greens are losing too at break neck speed. The Greens have been in Bavaria polls (Oct [--] election) at 13% having been previously at up to 24% "
X Link 2023-09-07T20:25Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary The Chinese Yuan gets extremely volatile falling to a [--] year low versus the dollar. Should the US inflation next week be higher than expected the pressure will be growing much higher"
X Link 2023-09-08T07:27Z 14.3K followers, [---] engagements

"@AlfredoJPinel @GameofTrades_ It all depends on inflation and interest rates which are closely related with energy. The correlation between energy and interests is during this cycle 1:2.5 much higher than in previous cycles which could lead to an interest spike next week"
X Link 2023-09-08T14:34Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"#vix One of the main reasons for higher short interest rates (Fed Funds blue) is to bring down commodity prices diesel green) and long term interest rates (10y red). As this has worked well in the [----] cycle this is different in the [----] cycle when energy and 10y are sticky"
X Link 2023-09-08T15:21Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"My guess for the August inflation rate is 5% and 7% for September due to an +30% energy bear market rally . As this will force the Fed to act again markets which were expecting much lower inflation will be shocked and the #vix will soar"
X Link 2023-09-08T15:35Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary As the fall of the Chinese Yuan (blue) escalates US interest rates (5y T green) will close the gap and escalate too"
X Link 2023-09-08T19:24Z 13.9K followers, [--] engagements

"@Georgitanev You can see it clearly from below chart. The [----] cycle has been a classic cycle. The Fed raise rates (blue) and commodities and long term rates are falling. However during the [----] cycle this is not working anymore as energy (green) and interest rates are stubbornly rising"
X Link 2023-09-09T09:20Z 13.9K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary Historically Consumer prices (red mom) rose at least 2.5% month over month when Diesel prices were up [---] dollars per month. As diesel rose $0.488 in August it implies that consumer prices will be up +2.5% in August to at least 5.7%"
X Link 2023-09-09T14:31Z 13.6K followers, [----] engagements

"@mrktcall @GuyAdami @LizYoungStrat @FactSet @SoFi Historically Consumer prices (red mom) rose at least 2.5% month over month when Diesel prices were up [---] dollar per month. As diesel rose $0.488 in August it implies that consumer prices will be up +2.5% in August to at least 5.7%"
X Link 2023-09-09T15:16Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"@mrktcall @GuyAdami @LizYoungStrat @FactSet @SoFi Agree with your cycle assessment. The current cycle is by far not yet completed as energy prices did rise inline with interest rates again"
X Link 2023-09-09T15:43Z 13.7K followers, [--] engagements

"Can we believe you Who did actually foresee the massive decline in growth this year There are rumors that Chinese government employees are not allowed to go work with a Tesla. True"
X Link 2023-09-10T12:11Z 14K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary Important cross of the IRX:TNX ratio which means the yield curve is steepening again"
X Link 2023-09-11T15:14Z 13.9K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary Despite massive interventions (red points swaps agreed with Yellen) the Japanese always weakens as China has a large trade surplus with Japan and sells to strengthen its own currency. Japan then has to sell US assets to keep its currency from collapsing"
X Link 2023-09-12T12:23Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary Italian 30y bond yields broke out from a rising wedge. Do Italian traders know more In one hour we will know all"
X Link 2023-09-13T11:44Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary As 10y bond yields (blue) and inflation did not yet escalate there are clear signs that 30y bond yields (red) are breaking out to [--] year highs. 30y bonds have bottomed out in Aug2019 long before Covid. They could sniff out what was coming"
X Link 2023-09-13T16:10Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"#OOTT The cycle analysis shows that higher FED rates have an impact on propane (red) which is slipping to its cycle low yet diesel (green) which is in short supply refuses to buckle and rises again. As the World economies run on #distillates this is a monetary challenge"
X Link 2023-09-13T18:54Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"There is currently no substitute for #distillates in the transportation sector which is the backbone of transportation. Electric vehicles are more a substitute for #gasoline. The more climateers are trying to eliminate #distillates the higher its price rises. #oott"
X Link 2023-09-13T19:05Z 13.7K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary The steep fall of capacity utilization demonstrates the challenges facing Japan in its global trade balance. Raw materials are more expensive and export revenues are declining leading to low capacity utilization. https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/capacity-utilization https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/capacity-utilization"
X Link 2023-09-14T05:18Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"@trend_bullish When physical prices rise in commodities (the same for gold silver metals.) and corporate bonds are falling mining equities are falling too despite underlying high physical prices. Mining Equities need both high physical prices AND strong corporate bonds"
X Link 2023-09-15T10:40Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary The Japanese (blue) is on the brink of a massive break down due to a re-surging trade deficit. This propels US 10y Treasuries very likely to multi decades highs"
X Link 2023-09-15T11:03Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary 30y bond yields (Italy blue US green) are surging from congestion. 30y can sniff out what is coming. In [----] yields plummeted long before the Covid recession"
X Link 2023-09-15T15:59Z 14K followers, [---] engagements

"#OOTT Triple top catapult break out of the USO:XLE ratio signals money is flowing into physical oil and out of equities as a higher oil price will weaken corporate bonds which weakens equities"
X Link 2023-09-15T16:11Z 13.8K followers, [---] engagements

"#OOTT Quadruple top break out of the USO:DJCB ratio signals that the increase of oil comes at the expense of corporate bonds and equities"
X Link 2023-09-15T16:19Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary The chart shows how the leverage of the correlation between #distillates (heating oilblue) and interest rates (US 10y green) has changed. Should #distillates go above $4 per bbl US interest rates will be soaring far above 5% with big consequences for consumers"
X Link 2023-09-16T13:59Z 13.6K followers, [--] engagements

".which is then followed by an oil crash. Then energy equities are a buy at much lower level"
X Link 2023-09-16T15:28Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary Text book break out of German 30y bond yields from a rising wedge. Long term interest rates can sniff out the trend. [----] long term rates could sniff out the trend to lower rates yet during this cycle long term rates signal an escalating tight liquidity ahead"
X Link 2023-09-16T15:59Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"For decades condensates had the same price as distillates yet this has changed as the oil market breaks apart"
X Link 2023-09-17T10:58Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"#oott US #gasoline refinery yields slumped to a record low versus refinery input (red point). US refineries produce more and more lower alkanes and less and less transportation fuels"
X Link 2023-09-17T13:24Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"@SteveWps Corporate bonds are falling - bad for equities including energy equities"
X Link 2023-09-17T14:33Z 13.6K followers, [---] engagements

"@Suicide95518428 Gasoline yields are much dependent from input. Valero has strong ties to Venezuela which is a heavy oil producer"
X Link 2023-09-17T15:53Z 13.7K followers, [--] engagements

"@Suicide95518428 Also the MPC data include way too low propane yield and are coming from heavy oil input. Of course you can keep your opinion yet I keep mine too. [--] years experience in the refining business give me a lot of confidence in my assessment"
X Link 2023-09-17T16:20Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"@AbandonHope192 @dannyrussell53 The big jump in rates rippled through the World market. Aussie Italy Spain.all yields jumped higher. The big disappointment for the Fed is no safe haven demand for US assets which it was counting for. In the contrary US assets experience extreme selling pressure"
X Link 2023-09-18T09:49Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"#oott Gigantic break out of the USO:EOG ratio from a quintuple top demonstrates that high distillate prices hit oil equities as most shale companies produce little distillate and more drilling would rather harm revenue from condensates"
X Link 2023-09-18T12:42Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary Italian 30y soared over 5% which is an important milestone. The break out from a rising wedge signals there is much more to come"
X Link 2023-09-18T20:08Z 13.6K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary TIC data of global Central banks for July reported a change of [$---] bn which is small. However interesting are the months of September and October when global Central Banks have sold $-360bn last year. https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.html https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.html"
X Link 2023-09-18T20:13Z 15.2K followers, [---] engagements

"#oott Chinese energy imports soared to $535 bn in [----]. When energy prices rise by +20% it costs China $100bn more which it cannot spend on hoarding US assets which drives up US bond yields"
X Link 2023-09-19T12:07Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#oott Soaring crude oil (blue) is propelling US interest rates (green US 5y) higher"
X Link 2023-09-19T12:14Z 13.7K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary Yesterday has been an huge interest rate spike to 4.425% which was quickly quashed down by the Fed. However the dilemma for the Fed is that any intervention is pouring oil into the fire of inflation and interest rates are clawing back higher again"
X Link 2023-09-19T13:07Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary Quintuple top catapult break out for the USO:TOL ratio signals the the heat is on for the housing market too"
X Link 2023-09-19T14:02Z 14K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary The TOL:USO ratio suggests the housing market is slipping into a parabolic decline"
X Link 2023-09-19T14:39Z 13.6K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary Despite massive interventions the Japanese keeps falling as the Japanese trade deficit soars with higher energy prices. [---] is the line in the sand"
X Link 2023-09-19T16:26Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary The Japanese slammed through resistance at [---] versus the dollar as the Japanese trade deficit came in much higher than expected the deficit with China alone [----] bn. Japan is losing ground in Asia trade as China Vietnam South Korea.undercut Japan trade"
X Link 2023-09-20T08:17Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"@GregPeer When oil rises long term yields rise too which is a back stop for higher prices as demand will be slowing down to extreme levels when bond yields are high. Only constant monitoring will give signals how far oil can go"
X Link 2023-09-20T08:59Z 14K followers, [--] engagements

"@Alpen_R Someone's gain is another one's pain. Who will win here The Fed cannot allow inflation to re-surge. The longer this conflict lasts the bigger the damage for the economy"
X Link 2023-09-20T09:06Z 14.3K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary Mighty break out from a rising wedge of long term rates despite a dovish Fed. As global exporters do not have a trade surplus there are worldwide no savings left to invest in US assets. Most countries have to SELL their currency hoard"
X Link 2023-09-21T03:56Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary In May short rates (4 week bill blue) surged far above long term rates (5y notes green). However this time short rates remained stable yet long term rates steeply surged which will be a challenge for asset housing carconsumer. markets"
X Link 2023-09-21T04:07Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"The steepening of the yield curve is very often the signal for a beginning recession (red circles)"
X Link 2023-09-21T04:17Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary Huge gap down of the TOL:USO ratio suggests the housing market feels the heat from higher oil and interest rates"
X Link 2023-09-21T13:53Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"A parabolic decline of the EOG:USO ratio shows that even oil equities feel the heat from higher interest rates (triggered by higher oil prices) which makes financing of drilling rigs more difficult"
X Link 2023-09-21T13:58Z 13.6K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary Massive steepening of the yield curve. US 4week bills were -2% inverted in May and are now -0.9% inverted. The Treasury has issued $1.7trn new debt within [--] months and global exporters have to sell $400bn in Sep/Oct to settle energy bills"
X Link 2023-09-22T05:37Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"@gmmts27fnb It is clear what the plan is. However as of now manufacturing will take a massive hit due to strikes. This is exactly why Nixon did the deal with China. China is reliable no UAW workers are obedient. This is different in the US"
X Link 2023-09-22T14:59Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary The reason for a steepening yield curve in the [----] cycle was that Fed Funds fell faster than 10y Treasuries. During the [----] cycle Treasury yields are rising faster than Fed Funds which is an incremental difference"
X Link 2023-09-22T17:23Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary Huge steepening of the yield curve. Historically this is exactly the (blue) point when a recession (shaded lines) starts. This can go now very fast. It means that Fed Funds are declining faster than long term yields indicating the Fed is forced to stimulate again"
X Link 2023-09-23T06:01Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"I have been always impressed by your way to analyse markets. However I have been always aware that your analysis must be combined with analysis of market forces. My analysis is showing that an huge move in markets is coming as the inverted yield curve is now steepening"
X Link 2023-09-23T06:20Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"@mrktcall @GuyAdami @LizYoungStrat @FactSet @SoFi Chart analysis can only give a hint to the future. It must be combined with deeper analysis. My analysis is showing that we are on an important turning point (recession = shaded area) and an huge move is likely as the yield curve is steepening again"
X Link 2023-09-23T06:30Z 13.6K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary Over [--] decades a gigantic corporate debt bubble has been piled up as any recession has been an opportunity to pump up more debt into the system (buy the dip). However over the last three years exporters have not anymore trade surpluses to recycle into the US"
X Link 2023-09-23T07:14Z 14K followers, [--] engagements

"@DanChesler This is exactly my point. The Fed actually loves an inverted yield curve as long as long term rates are falling. This has been the case in any previous cycles. Yet this time long term rates are soaring and un- inverting the yield curve which is an alarming sign"
X Link 2023-09-23T08:41Z 13.7K followers, [--] engagements

"Europe including Spain and Italy is submerged by cold air. Where is the announced heat wave drought end of the World scenario"
X Link 2023-09-23T10:54Z 14K followers, [----] engagements

"@askslim This is actually NOT the case now as long term yields are moving UP and short term yields are stable. This trend should be EXTREMELY worrisome for stocks/assets"
X Link 2023-09-23T14:41Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"@askslim In that sense bond vigilantes took over monetary policy from the Fed. It is the bond market which has the say"
X Link 2023-09-23T14:43Z 14K followers, [--] engagements

"@KobeissiLetter .or Bernanke 2008: The housing crisis is contained"
X Link 2023-09-23T15:19Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"@KobeissiLetter Remember Bernanke in May 2008: 'the housing crisis is contained'"
X Link 2023-09-23T18:10Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary The Treasury has increased its cash position to $640 bn ($682bn as of yesterday). Obviously the Treasury prepares for a new government shut down. There will be huge pressure on the bond market next week. https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/daily-treasury-statement/operating-cash-balance https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/daily-treasury-statement/operating-cash-balance"
X Link 2023-09-23T18:28Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"Dear Al Europe has the right to follow the policy which suits its citizens. Who gave you the authority to define European policy Any politician who follows your unrealistic vision will be voted out of parliament like it happened to Draghi in Italy"
X Link 2023-09-24T05:08Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"Temperatures close to zero in the midst of September. Is this really global warming the hottest year ever the climate catastrophe drought and heat waves"
X Link 2023-09-24T05:37Z 13.6K followers, [----] engagements

"Early snow storms in Iceland. Global warming Heat waves Drought End of World"
X Link 2023-09-24T11:44Z 14K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary Long term yields are sharply rising due to extreme supply of new and old debtwhich triggers a sharp steepening of the yield curve (right). This has led historically to a steep recession (shaded) and collapse of asset markets. The chance for this scenario is high"
X Link 2023-09-25T05:43Z 13.7K followers, [--] engagements

"There is increasing risk of an yield spike due to high net new debt issues of $1.7trn over the last few months. This can have a swift steepening effect on the yield curve and a steep impact on asset markets over the coming weeks"
X Link 2023-09-25T07:20Z 13.6K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary The five most severe recessions (shaded area) over the last [--] years have been marked by the steepening of the yield curve (red points) from a longer inverted period. The next weeks will show if we will get the sixth recession"
X Link 2023-09-25T07:50Z 13.6K followers, [--] engagements

"#vix The abrupt steepening of the yield curve after a prolonged period of inversion triggered the [--] severe recessions (shaded) over the last [--] years. We are currently very closed to this point as the yield curve soared over the last few days due to high net new debt issued"
X Link 2023-09-25T08:09Z 13.6K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary A week (blue) catapults US rates (green) higher. When Japan is in troubles it matters as Japan has the means to move markets"
X Link 2023-09-25T09:51Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary In a massive gap up German 30y (blue) soared to multi decade highs 3M rates instead FELL which means a significant steepening of the German yield curve joining the the US yield curve"
X Link 2023-09-25T10:04Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary The chart depicts the dynamic liquidity change. The short end (3 months green) flattens out the long end (US 30y blue) stampedes upwards. The yield curve inversion quickly resolves into a steep rise of the yield curve"
X Link 2023-09-25T10:25Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary Giant leap of 30y bonds to multi year highs. This could catapult US mortgage rates over 8% "
X Link 2023-09-25T12:07Z 13.9K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary A giant leap of long term rates (US 20y green) puts pressure on stocks (NDX blue). Usually stocks get relief at Wall Street opening yet this time the pressure is high. There are still many bonds in the pipeline ( US primary dealers) waiting to be sold"
X Link 2023-09-25T12:13Z 13.9K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary Short bonds (US 4W blue) flat long end heading for the sky (20y green) = swiftly steepening of the yield curve = challenge for asset markets"
X Link 2023-09-25T13:59Z 14K followers, [--] engagements

"@metoffice How does this comply with the constant rhetoric of 'the hottest year ever' 'the earth is warming up ever more' 'September October heat waves in the UK'"
X Link 2023-09-25T19:33Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary US federal government tax receipts were $2.9trn in q2 and expenditures were $6.5trn annualized during the same period. This adds up to a staggering deficit of $-3.6trn per year which must be financed over the bond market. No wonder interest rates are escalating"
X Link 2023-09-26T03:28Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary Korean won ( green) and Indonesian Rupiah (blue) have devaluated sharply over night. The worldwide financial system gets unstable"
X Link 2023-09-26T07:28Z 14.3K followers, [---] engagements

"@NitiVidur Japan had so far a large trade surplus which protected it from currency devaluation yet India has a massive trade deficit which makes its currency and financial markets unstable"
X Link 2023-09-26T07:32Z 14K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary As it has been at first sight a brilliant strategy to issue massive $1.7trn of net new debt in just one quarter the economy got strong yet this came at the expense of the bond market which collapsed and affects now corporate bonds as well"
X Link 2023-09-26T18:41Z 14.3K followers, [----] engagements

"@JWHL12 Printing debt is one thing finding a buyer for it is another. Ask Simbabwe"
X Link 2023-09-27T05:37Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary French consumer confidence fell again despite hovering around all time lows"
X Link 2023-09-27T08:28Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary In trying to avoid a slowdown the Treasury injected a massive $1.7trn stimulus package during q3 (red point). As this certainly jacked up growth and sentiment it triggered a massive rise in bond yields which is bringing down assets now"
X Link 2023-09-27T09:14Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"In trying to avoid a slowdown the Treasury injected a massive $1.7trn stimulus package during q3 (red point). As this certainly jacked up growth and sentiment it triggered a massive rise in bond yields which is bringing down assets now"
X Link 2023-09-27T09:19Z 13.6K followers, [----] engagements

"In trying to avoid a slowdown the Treasury injected a massive $1.7trn stimulus package during q3 (red point). As this certainly jacked up growth and sentiment it triggered a massive rise in bond yields which is bringing down assets now. Join @GuyAdami & Dan at 1PMET -Dimon Warns 7% Fed Rate Still Possible -Crude $DXY Gold -Tech Selloff $AAPL $MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL -Banks $JPM $C - $BX $APO $KKR - $COST earnings preview Sponsors @CMEGroup @FactSet WATCH https://t.co/8mRkvA3XQQ Join @GuyAdami & Dan at 1PMET -Dimon Warns 7% Fed Rate Still Possible -Crude $DXY Gold -Tech Selloff $AAPL $MSFT $AMZN"
X Link 2023-09-27T09:22Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"@askslim In trying to avoid a slowdown the Treasury injected a massive $1.7trn stimulus package during q3 (red point). As this certainly jacked up growth and sentiment it triggered a massive rise in bond yields which is bringing down assets now"
X Link 2023-09-27T09:30Z 13.6K followers, [--] engagements

"@NaturalsIndigo Exactly. $1.7trn net new debt is just matched by the Covid quarter Apr20. In [----] the stimulus package was just $800 bn. This was massive and created a straw fire"
X Link 2023-09-27T10:13Z 13.6K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary Mortgage rates jumped to a [--] year high o 7.41%. How long can the property market sustain this The $1.7 trn stimulus package in q3 is counterproductive"
X Link 2023-09-27T11:33Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary 20y rates predict an escalation of long term rates TIP rates predict a massive slowdown similar to October [----] and 4week bills predict no rate hike is coming"
X Link 2023-09-28T10:32Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary Massive jump of long term yields (30y blue) versus stable short end (3month bill green) is steepening the yield curve"
X Link 2023-09-28T18:01Z 13.7K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary The yield curves are steepening from a year long inversion. When the yield curve is positive again risks for assets emerge"
X Link 2023-09-29T04:08Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"The long end is rising now much faster than the short end of the curve showing up in a steepening yield curve. The reason for higher yields are an out of control US budget deficit which has reached nearly $ [---] trillion per quarter and prevents the Fed from raising rates further"
X Link 2023-09-29T04:33Z 14K followers, [----] engagements

"The dollar is strong when corporate bonds are weakening. The reason for higher yields and weak bonds are an out of control US budget deficit which has reached nearly $ [--] trillion per quarter. This is driving up the dollar and are a significant challenge for risk assets"
X Link 2023-09-29T04:38Z 13.6K followers, [----] engagements

"In my view markets will crash when the yield curve snaps up above zero due to a massive over supply of bonds. We are close to it and it may happen by next week. The yield curve shows a parabolic shape accelerating at increasing speed"
X Link 2023-09-29T04:48Z 13.6K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary After a period of inverted yield curve Central Banks are forced out of yield inversion by soaring long term rates due to surging supply of debt by governments. This means a period of recession which severity depends on the market capacity to absorb debt issues"
X Link 2023-09-29T06:21Z 13.7K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary The steepening of the yield curve (10-2y blue) after a period of yield curve inversion of the past three severe recessions shows clearly that we are on the brink of a steep fall of industrial production (red)"
X Link 2023-09-29T06:43Z 13.6K followers, [---] engagements

"#economymonetary The comparison with the [----] and [----] recession shows clearly that a steepening of the yield curve (blue line and circle) after a period of yield inversion was followed by a steep slump of industrial production=recession"
X Link 2023-09-29T06:58Z 14K followers, [---] engagements

"More evidence of the recessionary impact of a steepening yield curve"
X Link 2023-09-29T06:59Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"@Invested_Medici Only a yield curve steepening after a prolonged PERIOD OF YIELD CURVE INVERSION does trigger a recession. I am pretty sure it is coming"
X Link 2023-09-29T08:26Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"#economymonetary Despite a massive stimulus package of $1.7trn in q3 Chicago PMI hovers around historic lows"
X Link 2023-09-29T14:10Z 13.6K followers, [---] engagements

"#oott US rig counts slumped again despite high WTI prices. However super low condensate #natgas prices and a weak bond market are a head wind for new drilling"
X Link 2023-09-30T03:49Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#economymonetary Rates at the long end (blue) of the bond market fell much less than the short end (green) in the US and globally. This is the tipping point when Central banks have to fight deflation instead of inflation and the yield curve soars"
X Link 2023-09-30T04:02Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

"The tipping point of fighting inflation to fighting deflation has been reached over the summer and global Central Banks have to deal with deflation again as the steepening of the yield curves accelerates "
X Link 2023-09-30T04:13Z 14.2K followers, [---] engagements

"The tide has turned and Central Banks are facing deflation again"
X Link 2023-09-30T06:06Z 14.2K followers, [----] engagements

"@GennaroPierroIt Printing new debt needs also a buyer of this debt. Global exporters have no surplus anymore which was the major source of global savings. Therefore more debt will lead to a surge of long term interest rates and will be counterproductive"
X Link 2023-09-30T06:27Z 14.2K followers, [--] engagements

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