@KevinLMak Avatar @KevinLMak Kevin Mak

Kevin Mak posts on X about $asts, in the, company, short interest the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance #5218 stocks 4.67% technology brands 3.74% currencies 0.93% financial services 0.93% celebrities 0.93% musicians 0.93% exchanges 0.93%

Social topic influence $asts #4, in the 16.82%, company 10.28%, short interest #114, $sphr #3, this is #3939, guess 6.54%, if you #3604, business 4.67%, buying 4.67%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @spacanpanman @deepvaluedude @thekookreport @uzocapital @woolybooly21 @nuke2astra @thecountofmc_ @stallionairvtol @sanctuary_bio @jacobanil @alokbhardwaj @bennpeifert @williamr2rclub @mountaingoatcap @cahitmborsa @paleologo @astsspacemob @shaidardashti @jasperlauwers4 @chubbycatcap

Top assets mentioned AST SpaceMobile, Inc. Class A Common Stock (ASTS) Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) Morgan Stanley (MS) Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares (PGY) Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) Goldman Sachs (GS)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Although my trading simulation on price discovery is my favorite material in the course The Bubble Game is a close second. The simulation connects behavioral finance with game theory showing how http://x.com/i/article/2018543161396879361 http://x.com/i/article/2018543161396879361"
X Link 2026-02-03T06:06Z 28.4K followers, 27.3K engagements

"Far away from the eye-popping allure of quantum breakthroughs flying cars AI robotics and all the other usual themes lets talk about something a lot less glamorous but potentially very http://x.com/i/article/1978462394063245312 http://x.com/i/article/1978462394063245312"
X Link 2025-10-15T14:47Z 28.4K followers, 17.6K engagements

"Don't forget $SPHR earnings just came out. They beat by . a lot. Will share my thoughts later before the open"
X Link 2026-02-12T12:33Z 28.4K followers, [----] engagements

"Dolan mentioned on the call that in the next few years he expects 5-6 Spheres to be in production. So far everything Dolan has said has been true so his forecasts are highly credible. I expect the sell side to model this in more aggressively as a result"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:45Z 28.4K followers, [----] engagements

"This is not a biotech thesis. Its a mispricing created by capital flows incentives and how different investors define failure. The goal of this post like most of what I write is not to justify http://x.com/i/article/2012601430004088833 http://x.com/i/article/2012601430004088833"
X Link 2026-01-17T19:23Z 28.4K followers, 168.8K engagements

"Theres virtually nobody waking up at 7:01am looking for the data/press release with Dry powder saying if the data is good I will buy a bunch of shares Just a lot of people with massive inventories looking/hoping for a gap up to sell into. (Present company included) Volumes on the announcement were anemic and price discover super scattered. My guess is over the day (and weeks) institutional investors get caught up and buy some shares. and we get that steady post data grind up. (Pending no weird quirks announced in the conference call data) (NKTR is a 7% weight for me) Biotech scares me but it"
X Link 2026-02-10T12:54Z 28.4K followers, 48.5K engagements

"To the retail saying Im someone Congrats. You are someone. You also have alpha doing this because youre clever and work hard. You deserve it. What Im generalizing here is that the volume of NKTR traded was less than 200k shares or $8M dollars for like [--] minutes after the 7am print. This is incredibly small. As of 9:35 volume is 500k shares traded ALSO INSANELY SMALL. Not remotely enough for price discovery to be remotely possible. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021232189925662812 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021232189925662812"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:38Z 28.4K followers, [----] engagements

"$SPHR Looking forward to the call at 10AM. Here's the quick thoughts: Sphere Experience (OZ) beat by an absolute ton. I was expecting $165-$170m and the actual was $195M. There's only two explanations for this discrepency: 1) Food Bev + Merch is way higher than anyone/everyone expected. (This is likely the case) 2) Some "other source of income" that's related to Oz that we're unaware of (licensing or IP or something. this seems highly unlikely). On F&B the old postcard from Earth used to do about $7-8 bucks a person. A typical musical concert does around $30-$40. It looks like Oz is doing"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:34Z 28.4K followers, 20.8K engagements

"If you know how I run my book you'll know which one of these stocks I'm adding to today and which one I'm trimming today"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:10Z 28.4K followers, 33.2K engagements

"Dolan also said [----] concert calendar is basically full (maybe a weekend or two left) and [----] is pretty done as well. This isn't major news the market is likely baking in [---] concerts per year already. But I think we're about a year to [--] months away from Sphere starting to exert more pricing power on the artists (i.e. take a bigger cut of ticket sales). Also Sphere has a pretty solid AI Tailwind because the production costs will come down dramatically with AI assisted-production. And AI can't really disrupt physical capital/space (yet) giving them a moat from AI"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:46Z 28.4K followers, [----] engagements

"@jacobanil Yes. And its just mechanical rebalancing to keep my portfolio weights consistent with risk/reward scenarios"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:43Z 28.4K followers, [----] engagements

"$NKTR is up from $43 (when I posted) to $71 driven by understanding/forecasting how information prices into a stock. People often talk about waiting all year for the "fat pitch". It's hard but when you see it you really gotta swing. It takes years of assessing many situations to be able to actually identify beforehand what is and isn't a fat pitch. The only way to get good at it is through hundreds of reps (and learning to recognize patterns across many situations). After that it's about execution not analysis- or short hand "being a risk taker/PM vs an analyst" and far too many people spend"
X Link 2026-02-13T03:35Z 28.4K followers, 21.5K engagements

"New updated info from IHS Markit shows that short interest in JOBY has fallen by 5M shares in the past few trading sessions (exact timing with this data isn't precise). Just like many "random walk" types of data this doesn't really predict** what's going to happen in the future (maybe they're done covering maybe they'll cover more maybe new people will come short at these highs). What is useful about seeing high short interest is that moves upwards (either for flow or fundamental reasons) are exacerbated by short sellers covering. From a risk perspective it's generally pretty natural for"
X Link 2024-11-27T05:02Z 28.4K followers, 13.7K engagements

"When you spend years in a sector or strategy you build an internal index of how things work: how catalysts resolve how capital flows how sentiment forms where the bodies are buried. Some beliefs are strong some weak but the pattern-recognition engine becomes fast and instinctive. The challenge is that a lot of alpha hides in the places where those instincts are wrong where the index is stale incomplete or anchored on priors that were true once but arent anymore. To surface those blind spots I do something I call a prove myself wrong day. I take a topic where I have a moderately strong view a"
X Link 2025-12-08T04:18Z 28.1K followers, 13.6K engagements

"@spacanpanman @deepvaluedude @Uzocapital I looked at them and dismissed them but I don't remember why. Maybe it was liquidity or the weird way they're quoted. It seems off to be 5-8% IV difference though that seems way too big unless there's a structural difference"
X Link 2025-12-30T21:08Z 28.1K followers, [----] engagements

"@spacanpanman @deepvaluedude @Uzocapital Oh it's FX based. The US options are using the ADR so the vol is the vol of the underlying stock priced in GBP + GBP/USD fx rate. US-based call buyers do very well if USD keeps plummeting"
X Link 2025-12-30T21:10Z 28.1K followers, [----] engagements

"I had a few questions about rebalancing and geometric growth. Here's a quick ChatGPT conversation (mostly correct). And here's an article I wrote a while back roughly covering the topic as well. Yes taxes are ignored YMMV depending on what country you live in and what type of account you're managing. https://x.com/KevinLMak/status/1843856869300830705 https://chatgpt.com/share/696e3b44-7a60-800f-b73c-01d950952cd7 @KevinLMak Thank you for such an interesting perspective. Just to confirm: do you trade the round trips from $115 to $145 How much % of your position do you tradeDo you buy more stock"
X Link 2026-01-19T14:14Z 28.4K followers, 20.1K engagements

"$SPHR Goldman ups PT from $98 to $106 Morgan Stanley remains overweight at $105 Guggenheim ups PT from $90 to $122 Wolfe remains outperform at $124 KMak ups PT to $115 Great to see the announcement of the latest Sphere expansion. This was likely the one that Dolan hinted about back in September when he said "hopefully announce by the end of the year." Jan 18th is pretty close. Financing details are slim but the company has repeatedly communicated they will be asset-light so them putting any significant capital into this is highly unlikely. (I think 95% they do not raise capital). Maybe they"
X Link 2026-01-20T14:46Z 28.4K followers, 10.4K engagements

"@alokbhardwaj You'll see my first 13F in a few days. That gives an imprecise but comprehensive look at my holdings"
X Link 2026-02-10T06:40Z 28.3K followers, [---] engagements

"@thekookreport I saw the company just fixed a misplaced semicolon in a recent regulatory filing. This punctuates a massive unlock. CAN'T BE BULLISH ENOUGH"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:46Z 28.4K followers, [----] engagements

"I've always considered myself an educator first market participant second. While this post may seem timely if you follow my work I've tweeted most of these principles over and over again in some form. But here they are one more time in a slightly summarized format: [--]. My cost basis was X so I didn't actually lose that much. Your cost basis is irrelevant profit/loss (especially in equity events) should be marked to market based on the current price. If you don't understand this concept you need to go learn it now. Unless you have $8 cost basis NVDA shares don't use taxes as some excuse to hold"
X Link 2024-01-17T05:41Z 28.4K followers, 34.6K engagements

"Related but not really since ASTS/SatCo is in the news lately this is my preferred "clever" way to get exposure to ASTS. More or less breaking even on it over 6+ months now. Big payoff if it works out. h/t @deepvaluedude"
X Link 2025-11-08T03:04Z 28.4K followers, 10.1K engagements

"Random market microstructure thought. Markets already allow a lot of ways to hide your true intent. Iceberg orders exist for a reason. You show a small amount of size but there might be much more behind it. Someone trades with you thinking they cleared you out and then more shows up. So hiding real demand is fine. Whats not fine is showing demand that might not actually be real. Thats where spoofing gets banned. I get the theory but in practice the line feels blurry. Spoofing gets described as riskless manipulation but those orders are live. They can get hit. Theres real economic risk. And"
X Link 2026-01-01T23:32Z 28.4K followers, 18.7K engagements

"I guess this is part of the underpricing story"
X Link 2026-01-18T14:00Z 28.4K followers, 19.1K engagements

"$SPHR First mini-sphere announcement in DC Waterfront (Maryland). [----] people $200m of public funds/incentives unclear who's paying the rest. sounds like maybe Sphere co. Overall great to hear and the location sounds pretty solid given DC's high amount of annual tourist traffic plus affluent local population. (Disclosure I'm long about 5% SPHR in my fund plus have a small amount of Feb $110C)"
X Link 2026-01-19T05:01Z 28.4K followers, 11.2K engagements

"On a plane with @bennpeifert to Vegas. Heres my big chance to pitch him on my options selling course. Wish me luck"
X Link 2026-01-25T00:29Z 28.4K followers, 34.5K engagements

"@woolybooly21 short interest is inconsequential on NKTR. 700k ish shares shorted"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:28Z 28.4K followers, [---] engagements

"Look at that gross margin increase. Also for the journalists out there looking for a high conversion clickbait headline. "Las Vegas Sphere reports $1M of profit per day." Consider that these numbers are happening against a backdrop of Las Vegas headwinds where visitor counts are down for the past [--] months. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021956570397942038 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021956570397942038"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:36Z 28.4K followers, [----] engagements

"I see some people posting this as "Kevin Mak's fair value price target". I will stress that I'm not a biotech analyst I don't know this very well. This is a framework for how to think about it not precise values/estimates. That being said it's not far off consensus thinking as analysts have PT's ranging from $100-$150 and they DO spend their days carefully thinking about the inputs. My numbers above are just for the drug ignoring the Lily settlement value balance sheet and potential AA indication. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021977472791675344"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:59Z 28.4K followers, [----] engagements

"@william_R2Rclub Precise decisions. hmm. letting your portfolio weight and likely your risk in a stock change by 25% in a day based on price action seems imprecise. Doing nothing because you dont know what to do isnt the worst idea though"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:46Z 28.4K followers, [---] engagements

"$EVLV Following this one down the rabbit hole a bit more. Short interest via IHS Markit shows about 2.5M shares have been covered in the last [--] days. The data COULD be wrong/deceptive but my experience is it's usually pretty good so I should assume it's correct. 16M shares have traded in that period that 2.5M out of 16M shares is a pretty significant amount (16%) that's essentially one sided bonafide buying. Keep in mind a fair bit of the 16M is daytrade/algos just churning share with net-zero accumulation/disposition. So the 2.5M short covering is a lot more than 16% of "true volume""
X Link 2025-05-09T02:45Z 28.4K followers, 11.4K engagements

"As a [--] man shop my $SPHR dataset/analysis begs to differ. But as usual you need to be exceptional at your work your targeting and cleverness in order to develop an information edge in markets with limited resources. At a bigger firm it probably (practically) arrives in your inbox each morning. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020305397400121433 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020305397400121433"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:15Z 28.4K followers, [----] engagements

"(Pinned Profile Post) I'm Kevin I teach markets/finance/investing/economics (a bit of everything) at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. My main expertise is experiential learning where I bring real-world simulations into classrooms to motivate learning in a hands on way. My primary course is Financial Trading Strategies here's the syllabus: I'm the founder of the Rotman Interactive Trader platform which is software that simulates stock markets and has been used by over [------] students at 100+ academic institutions. The software is also used in commercial settings (market making firms"
X Link 2025-04-23T04:57Z 28.4K followers, 202.4K engagements

"Interesting dynamic as markets rip all time highs tons of low quality stuff rallying to nosebleed levels. Some companies are in the process of fundamental rerates. Despite very solid fundamentals justifying the price levels (and potentially much higher) its easy to assume theyre just up because everything else is and ignore them. ABVX comes to mind as it jumped from $10 to $52 and many would say well I missed the move but the value of the drug is in the $120 range. Buying at $52 after the news still allowed a dramatic amount of value (derisked too) for those willing to take a closer look."
X Link 2025-09-20T14:17Z 28.4K followers, 99.7K engagements

"The most common mistake amateur shareholders make is assuming that most things arent priced in. In reality markets are highly competitive and by necessity almost everything is priced in. If it werent outsized profits would be easy to captureand theyre not. Repetition of this is priced in isnt laziness; its a reflection of how markets actually work just like saying free money isnt lying on the ground. What many investors confuse is normal market volatility with evidence that information isnt priced in. These two are entirely different. Price swings dont mean the market missed somethingthey"
X Link 2025-09-25T21:33Z 28.4K followers, 43.8K engagements

"$PGY Quarter was great basically every financial metric is moving in the right direction. FLRPC is now at 5% which is great to see. Costs/expenses are under control margins expanding. Extra disclosure regarding their write downs so investors can get a better feel for how that looks. We can't forget that last year was a disaster with credit-related write downs. The story is that was a one-time (18 month) episode for the company and everything is up and to the right from here. With FLRPC margins up balance sheet usage (credit retention) down I'm inclined to believe them. If that's true (which I"
X Link 2025-11-10T14:00Z 28.4K followers, 50.3K engagements

"Reiterate h/t to @deepvaluedude for pitching the trade. I genuinely like this better than $ASTS although it may be too academic. if ASTS succeeds SATCO should succeed and VOD will accrue massive value from that. But there's lots of weird worlds where ASTS succeeds and the market is blind to the read-through to VOD (or it takes years to materialize and the calls won't pay off) fyi I'm over half the OI on this but the stock/mcap is plenty liquid and these options positions aren't distortive given how big the company is"
X Link 2025-12-30T18:02Z 28.4K followers, 37.2K engagements

"$VOD Sold the $12Cs and bought [----] $20Cs. Still chilling with the [----] 15Cs. Reduces dollar and delta exposure but more tail upside with the higher quantity of contracts. @spacanpanman Reiterate h/t to @deepvaluedude for pitching the trade. I genuinely like this better than $ASTS although it may be too academic. if ASTS succeeds SATCO should succeed and VOD will accrue massive value from that. But there's lots of weird worlds where ASTS succeeds and the https://t.co/NaciaLWBWL @spacanpanman Reiterate h/t to @deepvaluedude for pitching the trade. I genuinely like this better than $ASTS"
X Link 2026-01-26T15:32Z 28.4K followers, 23.6K engagements

"$PGY Quarter was soft and guidance soft. Interesting thing to consider is that last time this happened (2023 ish) the company "stepped up" and kept the revenue growth engine on (I think they said it was a strategic investment in the network). The result was growth stayed high but credit losses grew enormously. The market was very displeased with that partially because this strategy was not communicated ahead of time. AFTER the losses occurred it was explained "this was a strategic decision to stay in the market to show our partners we're reliable etc." This time around with the credit market"
X Link 2026-02-09T18:17Z 28.4K followers, 22.6K engagements

"$NKTR "It's up too much I missed it". Phase [--] data was as good as anyone could have expected. The data provides evidence that NKTR's drug has similar performance to the market leading treatment which sells over $10B per year. The "fair value" of the drug (probability weighted outcomes of different scenarios) is the reference point one should consider not "how much has it gone up". But if you must look at the chart it's also worth contextualizing that NKTR was trading at $65 for months BEFORE the recent Phase2 Maintenance data was released (two days ago). It's only the recent drop to $38 (with"
X Link 2026-02-12T11:40Z 28.4K followers, 42.5K engagements

"This is a rough valuation framework to think about as it pertains to the company and drug. The "real" estimates in the highlighted cells can/will be debated by people far more versed in biotech than me. But it's roughly how one should think about this situation not "well what does the chart look like""
X Link 2026-02-12T12:11Z 28.4K followers, 28.9K engagements

"$SPHR Wall Street estimate updates. Morgan Stanley [---] - $135 Goldman Sachs [---] - $126 BTIG [---] - $127 JP Morgan [---] - $128 Guggenheim [---] - $150 Wolfe [---] - $147 Seaport [---] - $125 Average [---] - $134 $SPHR Looking forward to the call at 10AM. Here's the quick thoughts: Sphere Experience (OZ) beat by an absolute ton. I was expecting $165-$170m and the actual was $195M. There's only two explanations for this discrepency: 1) Food Bev + Merch is way higher than $SPHR Looking forward to the call at 10AM. Here's the quick thoughts: Sphere Experience (OZ) beat by an absolute ton. I was expecting"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:29Z 28.4K followers, 11.8K engagements

"ASTS short interest has been completely obliterated. On the surface 74m down to 36m is 38m shares covered. At a rough VWAP of $42/share that's about $1.6 Billion dollars of ASTS shares that were purchased by short sellers over [--] weeks. Even if you take out the convert (9m) and the Russell front run (6m) its still 23M shares or $1B of short covering. With this much data now it's clear this was a very significant short squeeze. Even more interesting is that the short interest continues to fall even after the stock price has stabilized (and realistically come off 15% from the highs). You would"
X Link 2025-07-06T04:49Z 28.4K followers, 122.8K engagements

"@CahitM_Borsa All brokers who contribute to IHS Markit (which is about 90% coverage of global market)"
X Link 2025-07-06T16:42Z 28.4K followers, [---] engagements

"@spacanpanman Another survivorship bias SPAC landing firmly in the W column"
X Link 2025-07-10T14:05Z 28.4K followers, [----] engagements

"Update on my scrappy start up hedge fund In August [----] I saw a post from @__paleologo asking to meet with and learn more about successful "retail" traders. He was skeptical but open-minded about whether anyone outside the institutional http://x.com/i/article/1944599205089247232 http://x.com/i/article/1944599205089247232"
X Link 2025-07-15T15:06Z 28.4K followers, 103.9K engagements

"$SPHR Backstreet Boys at the Sphere is basically the hottest ticket in Vegas right now. Secondary market inventory is very sparse and tickets are selling for 3-5x face value. Obstructed tickets are $350+ Only [--] shows into their [--] show residency it'll be a massive hit and I'm sure they'll return for more dates in [----] and beyond. Most importantly proving out the model that the Sphere can command premium entertainment dollars with a very wide set of acts (not just superstar artists). The fixed costs of creating the show are irrelevant compared to the massive ticket revenues. $SPHR Beyonc vs."
X Link 2025-07-18T14:04Z 28.4K followers, 49.9K engagements

"Great question. I run a highly concentrated idiosyncratic book of special sits type of names. IMO their daily beta is a poor reflection of their fundamental asset beta*. I already run 33% vol with a beta [--]. Dropping my beta wont give me much room to lever the book significantly because a large idio move in one or two of my stocks is already a very large uncorrelated swing. (*A company like ASTS their 3-year return imo is almost entirely uncorrelated to SPX even if their daily beta is [---] or whatever.) My RSQ last year against SPX and IWM was about [---]. @KevinLMak If you have the ability to"
X Link 2025-07-20T01:31Z 28.4K followers, 82.9K engagements

"The world of baseball sports betting is dominated by sophisticated data-driven models. Since baseball can be broken down into discrete events such as pitcher versus batter or ball in play versus http://x.com/i/article/1948537657711362051 http://x.com/i/article/1948537657711362051"
X Link 2025-07-25T02:44Z 28.4K followers, 41K engagements

"@nuke2astra @spacanpanman 🚀🧇🛰📡📲👍💰🏎😎"
X Link 2025-08-13T17:57Z 28.4K followers, 93.3K engagements

"$ASTS Okay seriously though there's really nothing in the call that is particularly surprising bullish or bearish. And this is the trend of my usual discussion posts. Both the bulls and bears are hanging onto every Semicolon in every FCC filing trying to pull a thread in their favor. Bulls: If I asked you a year ago in August would we go [--] months without a single launch you'd say "heck no". Well it has happened. Yet you're more bullish than ever ASTS is a hardware tech startup. in space. Everything takes twice as long and costs twice as much. To quote some politics "take their words"
X Link 2025-08-13T20:03Z 28.4K followers, 113.1K engagements

"Some very interesting names on the buying side. Most likely they were acquiring shares during the June run up (contributing/causing) the run up and filing their holdings as of June 30th. I know a handful of those funds and they're more active/engaged type investors that I wouldn't have expected to show up yet. Very encouraging to see them with positions and it will signal to the rest of the market that ASTS has grown up and is more "ownable""
X Link 2025-08-16T00:12Z 28.4K followers, 18.1K engagements

"Make sure you celebrate the good days to make up for the bad ones.🥂"
X Link 2025-09-09T02:59Z 28.4K followers, 38.3K engagements

"$ASTS Latest update from the company is welcome news that production/launch cadence is on the near-ish term horizon. From a momentum perspective this is great for the stock as the last [--] months or so has been tepid when it comes to production/launch progress. My best guess is the production misses have been a combination of partner (ie ISRO) constraints internal design changes production forecasting issues overly ambitious timelines etc. To be clear none of this is particularly unexpected as I've stated many many many times before this is hard/delicate work and things take longer than"
X Link 2025-10-02T11:29Z 28.4K followers, 58K engagements

"Signing off for now spacemob🫡 I'll continue to tell you to eat your vegetables even if you keep throwing them back at me. I genuinely hope you all reach the generational wealth that you're aiming to achieve. I mean that from the bottom of my heart"
X Link 2025-10-02T22:35Z 28.4K followers, 30.1K engagements

"$ASTS Extremely impressive strength on the tape today despite the ATM offering and the general malaise around retail/momo/growth stocks AND the Scotia downgrade. I don't think it's short covering or momentum trading I think it's catch-up buying on the fundamental/story side. Still hanging tight with my 2% weight. My 1% trim at $54 has meant missing out on $500k of gains. AND COUNTING😎"
X Link 2025-10-07T19:07Z 28.4K followers, 34.9K engagements

"@ASTS_SpaceMob Bought 1.5% premarket. Guess what wasn't priced in"
X Link 2025-10-08T12:48Z 28.4K followers, [----] engagements

"This was me. The idea is that it's really hard(impossible)* to see us with a negative/bad print for Q3 earnings. Maybe it's a "sell the news" earnings event but even so I firmly believe the company would be buying back stock in the low 50's which would cushion losses on this trade if they were to occur. In other words I think the left tail of the distribution is far less likely than what the options IV implies so I'm selling that tail. Maybe the put is worth $1.50 ish as my "fair value" and market price is $3.15 so $1.65 alpha x [----] contracts = $165k or a little more than [--] bps of"
X Link 2025-10-08T15:25Z 28.4K followers, 103.8K engagements

"This post got a lot of traction so I want to circle back on it and go over more concepts. Mainly because I absolutely hate "cash secured put selling for yield" type of "strategies" and want to firmly dispel that notion on this trade here. When you're buying or selling an option you're betting on future volatility of the stock. Volatility is typically expressed as a distribution. (Black curve below) What implied volatility is basically pricing is how "fat" the distribution is. How likely is it that a stock could move up or down 10-20% etc. When there's earnings coming up the "IV ramps" because"
X Link 2025-10-09T03:26Z 28.4K followers, 60.8K engagements

"Found an unpublished draft article I wrote [--] months ago. Not gonna finish it but no point leaving it buried forever. The situation today is not entirely different from a year ago but the magnitude of the situation has changed. $ASTS --- Aug [--] [----] Price Discovery in ASTS is Broken In my lectures I talk a lot about the importance of price discovery. It's arguably the primary mechanism for why markets exist. It's also something that many retail (and professional) market participants are either entirely oblivious of or take for granted. The quickest way to describe it is that price discovery is"
X Link 2025-11-05T01:36Z 28.4K followers, 27.5K engagements

"Dipped my toe into adding some ASTS exposure today. 125% implied vol for [--] weeks with no scheduled catalysts seems rather high even for ASTS. I like the long delta here as well but overall think the short puts is a better way to express a long delta view versus buying straight stock. Wouldn't go out to December because ISRO is possibly going to be before December Opex. Gonna be a whole different set of volatility opportunities as we get closer to that. (This is in addition to my 2% stock position)"
X Link 2025-11-08T02:55Z 28.4K followers, 25.6K engagements

"When I share trades or thesis publicly they usually clear a pretty high bar. I only post when an idea checks most of these boxes: A) Contrarian or hidden. Its rarely consensus. Im drawn to ideas few people are writing about or taking large positions in. B) Quirky. Theres almost always a twist like a corporate action flow dynamic or volatility angle that makes it interesting. C) High conviction and accountable. I dont mind looking wrong but I do care that others might follow my trades. Even though nothing I post is financial advice I only share things Id be comfortable holding myself. D)"
X Link 2025-11-11T19:25Z 28.4K followers, 17.8K engagements

"$ASTS No major surprises in the latest call. I want to go back to my May 14th [----] quote: I feel like that has been mostly put to rest by management's commitment for [--] launches in the next 6-9 months. There's a very slight chance they're lying but I think that's incredibly unlikely- if there was going to be a significant design change/related delay they would have announced it yesterday. Sounds like my forecast of "incredibly unlikely" appears to be pretty wrong at this point in time. There's still a small chance but it's not looking great. The company's objectives/initiatives: Raise Money"
X Link 2025-11-13T03:50Z 28.4K followers, 58.1K engagements

"$CORZ At the close on Friday we had a huge 10mm market-on-close (MOC) order come through on CORZ. The stock gapped up about $0.30 or 3% when the size and imbalance were published. The MOC facility is generally used by large funds to buy/sell large blocks of stock with a guaranteed price set to the ending price of the day. MOC buy/sell orders are collected throughout the day and the imbalance and volume information is published at 3:50pm. On Friday at 3:50 a large buy imbalance (2M+) was published showing that there were block buy orders of about 10m shares and about 8m shares of sell orders."
X Link 2024-06-24T00:22Z 28.4K followers, 17.2K engagements

"$ASTS Short interest continues to fall steadily they just keep buying 500k shares per day to "slowly" unwind it and the stock grinds higher with their buying. My guess is that they don't want to cover too fast and get the retail momentum train too excited. Also normally game theory dynamics would suggest if many people are short and they all need to cover and they know each other will want to cover they will try to cover quickly to be "faster". IMO given how "orderly" this unwind is the majority of the short position is held by one or a few large positions which also makes sense to me because"
X Link 2024-07-12T15:52Z 28.4K followers, 34.8K engagements

"They thought they had time to slowly cover. 😂 Bad decision. They're probably in panic mode today aggressively buying back shares. We'll see what they did when the data updates next week. Maybe they're waiting for the next offering.🤡 Alligator blood all over the floor. $ASTS Why does the stock just keep slowly trending higher Here's part of the reason: Short interest keeps grinding lower which almost necessarily means that those that are short are buying back shares on a daily basis. When you have someone buying 300k shares a day it slowly https://t.co/8K87lCEP66 $ASTS Why does the stock"
X Link 2024-07-25T14:57Z 28.4K followers, 23.5K engagements

"$ASTS Answering some questions that I've gotten through DM and comments. 1) How do you "know" whether buying is short covering versus institutional accumulation versus retail etc Just like everything in markets you never know. You use your experience and datapoints to make educated guesses. Here's why I would say retail is not very involved with the current move (i.e. it's not currently meme'ing) a) Premarket and Postmarket volumes aren't very high. If retail are degen meme trading during the regular hours you'll see them pretty actively trading premarket a postmarket too. b) chatter. Really"
X Link 2024-07-28T03:30Z 28.4K followers, 36.8K engagements

"$ASTS Pretty amazing that the short interest continues to climb. They think dumb meme/momo retail is buying this. I'm pretty sure that's not the case. Datasource: IHS Markit"
X Link 2024-08-09T13:51Z 28.4K followers, 35.1K engagements

"$ASTS They just don't. get it. Plz crazy spacemob people take profits be responsible with your portfolio weights. Source: IHS Markit"
X Link 2024-08-15T14:24Z 28.4K followers, 38.7K engagements

"$ASTS "I wouldn't be surprised if we saw another 3-4 million shares covered this week (that will show up in the data next week)." .It's kinda like having cheat codes to the market. (Source: IHS Markit) $ASTS [--] Million shares covered in the past week or so (reminder data is delayed between 1-3 days). Realistically the buying (and the stock price jump) last week on the 15th and 16th would have settled and shown up on the 19th 20th 21st. So from that perspective the data is https://t.co/OumiyXjyoa $ASTS [--] Million shares covered in the past week or so (reminder data is delayed between 1-3 days)."
X Link 2024-08-27T13:29Z 28.4K followers, 23.5K engagements

"I generally hate covered calls. Specifically I hate the way retail investors embrace them- as if there's some magic way they can "reduce their cost basis" of a terrible position that they're married http://x.com/i/article/1836588057333473280 http://x.com/i/article/1836588057333473280"
X Link 2024-09-19T04:15Z 28.4K followers, 69.4K engagements

"$ASTS Two main takeaways from the call/update: Funding: about $150M needed to "fully fund" capex requirements. This means they realistically don't need to do an equity issuance to get to a reasonable/"full" commercial operation. $500M+ in cash with pretty credible 20m/sat cost estimate the story roughly checks out. I think this is important because it removes the "what if they do a big offering and tank the stock price" overhang. Also makes it so that people with a short position don't have an easy/expected exit-liquidity event. I noted in an earlier that the $150M has crept up since last"
X Link 2024-11-15T06:22Z 28.4K followers, 36.4K engagements

"$ASTS Upped my position this morning by about 50% covered with the Jan2026 $45C. A) I think we've got a lot of interesting catalysts coming up that makes me bullish. Knowing we have SpaceX launched scheduled is a big relief because it could have been a major blocker. B) Still like the covered call position because I think it's really hard to see this stock sub $15 (or sub $10 for arguments sake) in a year's time. Even if the company suffers multiple technical setbacks (already unlikely but worst case) there will be an endless parade of retail investors buying/supporting the business. Not to"
X Link 2024-11-18T18:16Z 28.4K followers, 51.9K engagements

"$ASTS Commercial agreement with Vodafone. This should have been expected but still great to see the progress. The [----] timeframe (not clear if its exclusive or not) shows a high degree of confidence with ASTS. Even if its not exclusive its generally very strong signaling that the company is not being wishy-washy about their commitment. Notable no vendor prepayment was mentioned which is directionally negative/neutral. $100m up front would have been nice but isnt necessary (long term is better imo). Added some shares this morning. Space hype is still very high and momentum retail are looking"
X Link 2024-12-09T13:42Z 28.4K followers, 24K engagements

"A lot of discussion about Single Manager hedge funds lately and how challenging it is. heres my 2c (Context is I launched my SM fund on August 1st [----] so Im going through it all right now but Ive been close to the industry for [--] years). Big picture is that its hard but it should be hard. To me hedge funds are the Olympics of Finance or bootstrap Startups of business. Youre supposed to struggle eat ramen for a year and beat the odds in order to win (and be compensated for the win). I think historically the SM game was too easy in that many smart people were getting paid handsomely to figure"
X Link 2024-12-13T00:22Z 28.4K followers, 95.7K engagements

"$RCAT This stock is now squeezing. The borrow rate is up from 8% to 42% on IBKR. IHS Markit reports the daily short interest is up to 13.8M shares from 8.6M. Basically when WSB meme'd it on Sunday/Monday lots of people shorted the pop because it's "bullshit". That's partially true but there is a fundamental story here (whether you believe it or not) and at the end of the day the Short interest is going to have a tough time financing the position if they want to stay short for a prolonged period of time. IMO no good reason for the stock to be up so much today other than short covering. (Maybe"
X Link 2024-12-19T20:31Z 28.4K followers, 39.8K engagements

"$ASTS A few people asked for my feedback/opinion on what's going on with these end of day blocks. This is likely the "CRSP US Total Market Index" quarterly rebalance. Posted below is the schedule of their rebalances and they do 20% of the adjustment per day for [--] days straight using the end-of-day closing price. The largest ETF that tracks CRSP USTMI is Vanguard's VTI which manages approx $1.8 Trillion dollars of assets VTI alone holds 4M Shares of ASTS. Vanguard holds 10M+ across other funds as well and other non-Vanguard funds track CRSP USTMI but they're not nearly as large. Since the"
X Link 2024-12-20T15:12Z 28.4K followers, 67.4K engagements

"$ASTS Some thoughts on the spectrum deal w/ Ligado. Note that these thoughts are related to corporate/finance/investment perspectives versus technology perspectives. As I've said before I'm not a telecom person I borrow almost all my telecom knowledge from the top Spacemob contributors who to date have been very accurate with their interpretations on things. This deal is very out of left field. Let me deconstruct why. 1) We've been told (or at least have been saying) that "ASTS doesn't need spectrum. The beauty of the MNO partnership model is that we borrow theirs." Some have gone so far to"
X Link 2025-01-13T04:24Z 28.4K followers, 35.2K engagements

"$RCAT New highs on the total shares borrowed (shorted) according to IHS Markit. Avg borrow rate is below previous peak because when borrow rates spike more lenders bring in inventory which increases supply (and reduces the rate). Implied Vols are low relative to the past [--] weeks which is interesting because I think we should see some announcements in the coming weeks and the short outstanding generally adds volatility so IV's may actually be a bit cheap here (hah at 125%). Recent DJI news (removing geofencing) probably slightly net positive for RCAT. I think full DJI ban is happening"
X Link 2025-01-15T19:51Z 28.4K followers, [----] engagements

"$ASTS CONVERT DEAL Not much to say here I think it all makes sense. In my previous posts Ive suggested that the company do offerings that monetize its implied vol and thats exactly what this does. With cash on hand (and the ATM usage) BB2 is fully funded. This $350m is presumably for BB3 (40 ish sats $800m ish price tags) plus general corp expenses and/or strategic deals. Theres a slight negative signal here which is that investors believe export-import bank or firstnet or rural 5g funding is readily available to the company. If so they dont need to do this convert. So the signal is that that"
X Link 2025-01-23T16:14Z 28.4K followers, 36.2K engagements

"$ASTS Not much to say here other than every dollar this stock goes down is as dollar closer to having to add anto my name. I still keep seeing valuation comparisons to Starlink. I'll reiterate my opinion of how insane that is. Starlink a privately traded meme stock held by the biggest poorly incentivized whales in finance. They'll HODL mark up their portfolios collect bonuses and participate in 2% liquidity events forever. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1885028189618991140 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1885028189618991140"
X Link 2025-01-30T18:11Z 28.4K followers, 73.3K engagements

"$ASTS ASTS has rallied 50% from $17 to $26 in [--] trading sessions. The question is is this move sustainable or have we come to far too fast This graph contrasts the volume of this latest move with the one in August. They are drastically different. Where last time there was a retail/momentum frenzy (tourists and gamblers) coming to bet on an exciting launch of a SpaceX rocket carrying block [--] (which actually makes no sense at all to be a vol event). This time the move is much "quieter" and the volume is likely coming in to get ahead of an expected announcement by commercial partners about the"
X Link 2025-02-08T05:18Z 28.4K followers, 83.1K engagements

"$ASTS My best guess is today's action is institutional accumulation or institutional short covering. The move started at the 9:30AM open. Retail doesn't wait until 9:30 to trade but institutions (generally) do with their vwap/twap type of orders. Funny that when Starlink did their "fake Apple partnership" ASTS tanked and this time Starlink does a "direct attack on ATT/VZ customers" stock rallies"
X Link 2025-02-10T15:24Z 28.4K followers, 50.7K engagements

"$ASTS Big event coming for the company with their earnings release and management call. Awkwardly the events are split across two different days so it's hard to know exactly what they will announce on each/which day. That leads to some uncertainty and will make trading and price action rather choppy. If there's good (bad) news on Monday does the market rally (tank) immediately or fear bad (good) news coming the following day Hopefully they're very forthcoming with information on Monday instead of leaving the market in limbo. I'm predicting a shift in the tone of their messaging/operations (I"
X Link 2025-03-03T03:06Z 28.4K followers, 39.4K engagements

"$ASTS Turn up the volume. ASTS is crankin' Overall very happy with the progress that they articulated on the call. They have $1B of liquidity and a $1B capex plan for the next 12-18 months. How's that for aggressive This "burn the ships" strategy is imo absolutely the way to go and I love to see the company embarking on it. Quick notes - Google 3-year service agreement signed - US Space Force contract should realized by [--] sats operating for [--] months. That's huge. - appx $500m of quasi-gov funding specifically they said "having passed key milestones including transaction committee"
X Link 2025-03-05T14:17Z 28.4K followers, 85.6K engagements

"$ASTS IMO institutional following of ASTS is still incredibly small/niche. To understand why current ASTS investors need to appreciate that most successful "professional" investors rely heavily on pattern recognition and heuristics to make decisions. There's a few reasons for this: 1) You have so much information/stories coming at you you can't "judge each book on its merit one at a time you need to judge the book by its cover". 2) You know others are also using pattern recognition so the short term game theory is to herd with others. 3) Pattern recognition is used for evaluation/bonuses so"
X Link 2025-03-25T02:31Z 28.4K followers, 40.5K engagements

"Just realized it has only been [--] trading days since tariffs were first announced. feels like a lifetime"
X Link 2025-04-09T18:10Z 28.4K followers, 13K engagements

"Everyone has a price. Even Abel. Also rumor of buyer interest could be real and would be helpful for the stock price even if ASTS is not an interested seller. Knowing VZ or someone wanted to buy ASTS for $50/share but cant is great news and would bid the stock up immensely. IMO shouldnt necessarily discount all of this info so haphazardly"
X Link 2025-04-15T19:23Z 28.4K followers, 16.9K engagements

"$ASTS I think the recent Musk/Trump situation has some interesting implications: Fundamentally- Previously any head-to-head gov't contract awards would have leaned towards Starlink given the right relationship. Even if Musk/Trump patch things up the situation would be more neutral versus favoring Musk. I think government contracts are in the hundreds of millions of dollars per year and hence worth billions of dollars to firm value. If you take a hand-waivy $5B of firm value up for grabs and the probability that ASTS wins government work has increased by 10% as a result you get a +$500M market"
X Link 2025-06-06T13:23Z 28.4K followers, 36.7K engagements

"$ASTS Scott W sold 50k shares today. Here are a few things to keep in mind: This sale was NOT made under a 10b5-1 automatic trading plan. Many insiders use 10b5-1 plans that pre-schedule sales based on price targets or preset dates. The benefit is that these plans are adopted well in advance and help shield the insider from allegations of trading on material nonpublic information (MNPI). Since this was not a 10b5-1 sale it appears Scott made a discretionary decision to sell likely recently. He sold about 10% of his holdings which is a very reasonable action for personal liquidity or"
X Link 2025-06-10T03:45Z 28.4K followers, 52.8K engagements

"6m shares covered in the last week. Honestly thats probably the bulk of the move higher. Today similarly- no real news just short covering. I think there are very few incremental sellers so the price is very inelastic on the upside. This is a squeeze imo even though its not what retail typically thinks comparing to the 2x or 5x mega squeeze situations. Given the short interest still being so elevated it seems like theres still room to the upside. Tough for me to size here price is much higher and things havent really fundamentally changed. Im down to about 5% weight here. $ASTS: Real-time"
X Link 2025-06-13T17:44Z 28.4K followers, 71.2K engagements

"Pretty wild in context"
X Link 2025-06-24T03:43Z 28.4K followers, 62.4K engagements

"ASTS headline is mostly benign- slightly positive. They have outstanding convertible debt. They worked out a deal with some debt holders to convert their debt into shares early (now instead of years from now). This cuts their annual cash interest but they gave a sweetener (more shares than contractually obligated). Its a fair trade negotiated from both sides where theyre both slightly better off). The only material difference is you will see short interest drop by 8m+ shares once the conversion is complete. Id imagine all debt holders converting are fully short and these shares just"
X Link 2025-06-25T10:48Z 28.4K followers, 93.7K engagements

"@spacanpanman Don't you feel that every week. Cuz I do"
X Link 2025-07-23T13:46Z 28.4K followers, [----] engagements

"$asts Fundamentally this convertible debt offering isn't bullish or bearish. The company needs $2-4B over the next [--] years to build out the constellation. They aren't going to get all of it via ExIm non-dilutive financing. Most of it will come from equity issuances debt issuances and mixed (convertible) issuances. This isn't uncertain this is a reality. Exactly how they time out that fundraising is uncertain. "Do we take the money now or do we announce xyz and hope the stock goes up and then issue shares later" Obviously waiting for the price to be higher is more aggressive and beneficial but"
X Link 2025-07-25T05:02Z 28.4K followers, 64.5K engagements

"Oh I see the market decided to make this personal 🤣"
X Link 2025-10-02T20:02Z 28.4K followers, 61.8K engagements

"@thekookreport promised me an Endowed Chair at Stanford when his ASTS stake hit a certain level. This isn't what I had in mind"
X Link 2025-10-08T13:25Z 28.4K followers, 21.4K engagements

"Most people love to talk about their wins. Its easy its comfortable and its a nice pat on the back. But a while back I made a bit of a tongue-in-cheek post saying that I like taking losses more http://x.com/i/article/1978650177415094272 http://x.com/i/article/1978650177415094272"
X Link 2025-10-16T03:22Z 28.4K followers, 99.8K engagements

"Nobody wants to read this article today 🤔 https://t.co/YfmasEeMRU https://t.co/YfmasEeMRU"
X Link 2025-10-16T20:27Z 28.4K followers, 34.1K engagements

"Fun trade/portfolio management thing. Over the past [--] days I've put on a $10M short position in a basket of "trash". My view is that this current run is finally over and I'm willing to call at least a local if not more enduring top on it. Note that the Beta of my portfolio is usually around [--] so this short position really just puts me slightly more defensive versus being outright short the market. Beta drops to around 0.8ish with this. If the market rallies another 5-10% into year end I'll make less. If it falls 5-10% I'll still lose money but it'll sting a little less. I'm not talking about"
X Link 2025-10-21T18:09Z 28.4K followers, 81.8K engagements

"Out of all the lectures that I give at Stanford I consider the topic of Price Discovery to be the most important one. Here's a brief description of how I teach it. ---- We use a trading simulator in http://x.com/i/article/1837682621544857600 http://x.com/i/article/1837682621544857600"
X Link 2024-09-22T04:32Z 28.4K followers, 581.7K engagements

"Consider a fictitious company called MegaTactic Inc. Lets say they hold $10 of cash per share on their balance sheet and have zero business operations. They're just a cash holding company. The fair http://x.com/i/article/1862185420714643456 http://x.com/i/article/1862185420714643456"
X Link 2024-11-28T20:08Z 28.4K followers, 82.1K engagements

"Here's the current weights in the long book of my portfolio on a delta-adjusted basis. This omits the arb/opportunistic side of my book. SPHR 15% ASTS 8% CORZ 6% CLMT 5% BBIO 5% SMCI 5% SOLV 3% RCAT 3% BKSY 2% EVLV 2% JAKK 2% PGY 2% SOC 1%"
X Link 2025-01-30T19:38Z 28.4K followers, 86.8K engagements

"The possibilities are endless We're nearing the point where there should be dozens of (true) rumors about negotiations deals partnerships etc with ASTS. Practically every company that uses the internet (car companies mno's drone makers the list is endless) should be seriously evaluating or at least "kicking the tires" on how D2D fits (or doesn't) with their business. Exciting times indeed"
X Link 2025-04-15T21:01Z 28.4K followers, 10.9K engagements

"$ASTS Theyre being very aggressive/promotional with their tone here on Golden Dome. This is very polarizing- either theyre exceptionally confident that theyre getting this business (may already have soft commitments) or theyre trying to juice the narrative to bag retail holders. I lean heavily towards the former but also see parallels to a lot of small cap shitcos that aggressively sell hype before they materialize. Large caps dont communicate in this way. Theyre much more reserved: Well tell you once its signed. But to be fair ASTS is still in start up mode despite its $10B market cap so its"
X Link 2025-06-07T12:02Z 28.4K followers, 55.3K engagements

"Every week or so I get a kind and thoughtful DM from someone thanking me for spending so much time writing/sharing on X and asking "What books should I read to learn more about markets" I http://x.com/i/article/1985885670167232512 http://x.com/i/article/1985885670167232512"
X Link 2025-11-05T02:55Z 28.4K followers, 32.3K engagements

"I had a debate with another market professional about "retail behavior" in the market. I'm convinced it's permanent they think it disappears "after a crash like in 2001". I think the actions that retail are taking are generally rational. Here's why I think it's different this time. --- The American Dream used to be pretty simple: house in the suburbs [--] kids two cars steady W2 job pension decent life. For a big chunk of people that was actually achievable. Two things happened: 1) The dream inflated. Social media made the top 1% lifestyle visible and aspirational. The new dream is a penthouse"
X Link 2025-11-13T16:51Z 28.4K followers, 107.7K engagements

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