@J0nathanKayy Avatar @J0nathanKayy Jon Kay

Jon Kay posts on X about $be, $acmr, $app, ai the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence stocks 34% finance 23% technology brands 19% social networks 8% countries 3% cryptocurrencies 2% automotive brands 1% travel destinations 1%

Social topic influence $be #81, $acmr #13, $app #161, ai 9%, in the 9%, $rddt 8%, app 8%, $grpo 8%, market 7%, applovin #184

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @mathlonning @aleabitoreddit @jonahlupton @contrariancurse @patrickjensenx @benitoz @logicalthesis @nietschecapital @zephyrz9 @nuttycld @shakazulu117 @techequityeng @cruxcapital @amitisinvesting @steveplatz @donnoshid @raydalio @thexcapitalist @celestial4104 @marc_fagel

Top assets mentioned Bloom Energy Corporation (BE) ACM Research, Inc. Class A Common Stock (ACMR) AppLovin Corporation (APP) Reddit, Inc. (RDDT) Newmont Corporation (NEM) Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) TransMedics Group, Inc. Common Stock (TMDX) Nebius Group N.V. Class A Ordinary Shares (NBIS) Metadium (META) BITMINE IMMERSION TECH (BMNR) Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) The Official [--] Coin (89) (89)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"9) AppLovin has been targeted by multiple short sellers over the past year - Fuzzy Panda Culper Research Muddy Waters and most recently Capital Watch in January [----]. Short sellers are investors who bet against a stock profiting when it falls. They borrow shares sell them and hope to buy them back cheaper later. Every short report came from firms with disclosed positions meaning they profit directly if the stock falls. Notably Capital Watch withdrew their short report last week and announced they are now long APP. This is extremely unusual behavior - something I have never seen before."
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Apologies this is wrong - but they did retract their Short Seller Report here - I still think this is completely nuts Also back to the SEC investigation. Whilst they may take [--] - [--] years I think [--] months and no update is a sign that nothing significant is to come from it. Whilst this isn't anything concrete it is just my thoughts https://x.com/CapitalwatchNow/status/2020722163091959904s=20 https://x.com/CapitalwatchNow/status/2020722163091959904s=20"
X Link 2026-02-14T21:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Just to let everyone know $ACMR is one of the very few sell US trades that has exposure to AI"
X Link 2026-01-26T16:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Latest Deep Dive into $NEM as a leveraged play on Gold in [----]. Short Summary : When empires fracture gold wins. I believe we are seeing the cracks open in the US system. This is not a typical gold mining analysis but a leveraged thesis on the unravelling of the post-WW2 order and how to position for it. Newmont Corporation $NEM is the world's largest gold miner. It offers leveraged exposure to the single greatest hedge against institutional breakdown. With $38T in federal debt interest payments consuming ever larger chunks of revenue and central banks globally dumping Treasuries while"
X Link 2026-01-28T12:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@mathlonning Sk hynix is the largest customer and they smoked earnings 👀👀"
X Link 2026-01-30T14:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"With $ACMR hitting all-time highs about ten minutes ago and earnings right around the corner it felt like the right time to get into the numbers and form some conclusions for [----]. Starting with revenue the midpoint of managements [----] guidance is $1.1275B. I expect gross margins in [----] to come in around 46% to 48% up from the 42% reported in Q3. Management explicitly stated that there were two main drivers behind the lower margins. First there was a [---] basis point hit from product mix due to higher sales of smaller front-end tools. Second there was a [---] basis point hit from inventory"
X Link 2026-01-30T21:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Right so I was trying to model the stock price of $ACMR and it jumped 4% in the space of about [--] mins haha"
X Link 2026-01-30T21:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Finished the month of January up 15%. Main positions remain $BE $ACMR Smaller positions $APP $TE $DFTX $NKTR Hedges $NEM Would of been a great month had I not decided to punt in $BMNR as a leveraged play on crypto bottoming out Hey ho I guess there is a lesson in that in itself - was stupid in heinsight Looking forward to Feb - especially since lot of my positions report earnings https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017357209261265278 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017357209261265278"
X Link 2026-01-30T22:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"With $AMD bringing the whole AI trade lower $NBIS at $83 and $CRDO at $100 look quite nice"
X Link 2026-02-04T15:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@benitoz so damn bullish. I am buying more if its flat pre market"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"BLOOM ENERGY $BE Q4 FULL EARNINGS WRITEUP NOW LIVE ON MY SUBSTACK LINK BELOW : - https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/bloom-energy-2025-q4-earnings-writeupr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/bloom-energy-2025-q4-earnings-writeupr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"15/ At $152 pre market the stock is already pricing in a significant beat. I rebought at $136 but will likely trim around current levels not due to lack of conviction but because the risk reward is less attractive after the move. The core question remains whether Bloom delivers a modest beat or something far larger than guidance implies"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"FULL $BE Q4 EARNINGS WRITEUP ON MY SUBSTACK BELOW : https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/bloom-energy-2025-q4-earnings-writeupr=wlb8l https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/bloom-energy-2025-q4-earnings-writeupr=wlb8l"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Ok so Bloom Energy was my top idea going into [----]. I bought a large position around 25% of my book in the $90 range and sold 80% of my position the other day when the stock hit all time highs at http://x.com/i/article/2019802744769363969 http://x.com/i/article/2019802744769363969"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Sold a large chunk of the $BE I bought pre earnings for 15% gain. Currently up 33% YTD and 40% in cash"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Here is much current portfolio allocation : Currently up 33.2% YTD with 39.6% Cash Really liking the look of Solar at the moment $TE $TOYO off the bat of the enormous Capex projections from $AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11Dn5k6Py44-feozlWMqsFkf3QH4WZMrGGHZPsKYWVrw/editusp=sharing https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11Dn5k6Py44-feozlWMqsFkf3QH4WZMrGGHZPsKYWVrw/editusp=sharing"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Claude Opus [---] is beyond good. Makes ChatGPT look like a silly chatbot"
X Link 2026-02-08T13:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"My thesis for [----] is finding companies trading at attractive valuations with strong fundamentals in an otherwise expensive market. Reddit fits that profile. At $141 the company trades at 18-19x forward EV/EBITDA while growing EBITDA at 80-90% year-over-year. Most peers growing a fraction of that rate trade at comparable or higher multiples. Q4 delivered revenue of $726 million up 70% YoY. But the key metric is EBITDA: $327 million up 112% YoY with a 45% margin. Revenue doubled in FY25 but EBITDA more than doubled. Incremental EBITDA margin was 60% meaning $0.60 of every revenue dollar"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Little bitter that I missed the boat on $CRDO when it hit $96 a week ago amidst market selloff and fears that Photonics would take away market share. Yesterday they announced third quarter fiscal year [----] revenue in the range of $404 million to $408 million above the high-end of Credos previously announced third quarter guidance range of $335 million and $345 million. $CRDO is increasing revenue 50% QoQ which is mental. I am yet to do my full research into the valuation of the company over the next few years but just from this upside alone $CRDO looks nice."
X Link 2026-02-10T17:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$RDDT ended the day up 6%. I think the market is slowly starting to realize that a company growing revenue and EBITDA 70% yoy valued at [--] - 19x EV/EBITDA is quite a nice valuation"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@aleabitoreddit Doing the math EBITDA is growing [--] - 90% yoy. I think $RDDT does $1.5B of EBITDA in [----] which means it trades at a value under 20x NTM EBITDA. To me $RDDT is easily [--] - 50% undervalued at these prices. Also I think $RDDT is immune to AI as its platform is so community based"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"I don't know why anyone would want to buy any SaaS stocks when $RDDT is out there. Not a single stock is growing revenue 70% yoy and trades at less than 20x NTM EBITDA. The idea that they are beaten down on the assumption that AI will replace them is fair to a degree. But $RDDT is so community based that AI simply can't replace this. I have a 4% position in $RDDT but will be looking to scale it up to 10% in the near future as I really like the risk reward at these prices https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021363715371635172 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021363715371635172"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Just a small update regarding performance YTD. Currently up 38.6% YTD. Link to my portfolio here : FYI this is a new sheet that updates live when I plug new transactions so for now the transaction sheet is blank but I will update daily moving forwards. Ive transitioned out of the majority of my $BE post-earnings position purely because Ive made strong returns over the last five weeks and dont see the point in being greedy. Ill likely add back aggressively on any pullbacks but for now Im holding a smaller position. I sold all of my $ACMR call options the other week for a 100% gain and rotated"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@LogicalThesis Buy $RDDT instead. $RDDT is growing revenues at 70% yoy and EBITDA at [--] - 90% yoy. At these prices $RDDT is valued at less than 20x NTM EBITDA. I think there is much better risk reward than any software stocks out there growing revenues at 30% yoy at best"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Nietschecapital They will soon catch up. This is the edge anyway for our thesis on $APP $RDDT"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Just a small thought because I hold both $APP and $RDDT which have both sold off a bunch despite pretty damn good earnings. I think it is pretty clear to see that there is just no momentum in the market. $RDDT is being treated like its in the software bucket and $APP is trading below its 200DMA. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021977098445893705 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021977098445893705"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@mathlonning Yeah I am in a similar boat. Still up 27% YTD but with 18% cash. Bought a bunch more $APP and $TMDX though"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Sold a decent chunk of my book yesterday amidst euphoria. 1) Sold my $ACMR call options for 110% gain 2) Sold 75% of my $BE for 88% gain Currently up 37% YTD"
X Link 2026-02-04T15:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Just because I sold out of all my $ACMR does not mean I no longer think it is a great idea for [----]. My price target for $ACMR is $89 and yesterday when it hit $64 briefly I decided to take the gains in my call options and run. Your job as an investor is to make the number on your screen go up. Today is literally living proof that the market can go down as fast as it goes up https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019109427974897682 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019109427974897682"
X Link 2026-02-04T18:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"I think just general price action. I sold all my $ACMR options for 110% gain when it hit [--] briefly. I have done really well (35% YTD) and with all the political volatility on the horizon it felt greedy to hold on to them and not take my winnings. I am going to wait a little longer but still keen to run $ACMR again through earnings as I think they will surprise the market on margins. I also think that with China rapidly expanding wafer production to H2 [----] I expect guidance to be good as well. For now though the market is a bloodbath and I am sitting on 50% cash"
X Link 2026-02-05T19:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Bloom Energy $BE Q4 Earnings Thread 🧵"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Yeah $BE is one of my largest positions. However when doing the math the guidance seemed a little conservative. $BE sold 1.1GW out of their 2GW capacity for [----] by Jan 8th. They were able to provide power to an oracle data center within [--] days. I think it is pretty obvious they will sell close to all their capacity in [----]. At 2GW capacity management say revenues will be 4x that of the FY [----] revenues. FY2025 rev was $2B. 4x that is $8B. Management guided $3.1 - $3.3B for [----] - $4.8B less than if they actually were to run at full capacity for [----]. Management also were explicit that "they"
X Link 2026-02-06T15:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Its hard to think that companies like $TE and $BE won't do well over the next [--] - [--] months. All this capex has to go somewhere and it is going to go where the bottlenecks are. Energy has been clearly defined"
X Link 2026-02-06T23:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@zephyr_z9 $ACMR should do well of this. Considering they have just started shipping their advanced packaging products and this segment is growing 231% YoY I think we get some good guidance from management on Feb 26th surrounding margins and market outlook"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"1) After reviewing $APP Q4 earnings call its seems hard to believe that the stock sold off 20%+ and bottomed again around the $360 mark - down 47% YTD from a 52WH of $745. Whilst the market did rebound yesterday I still think $APP is extremely undervalued and misunderstood by most especially surrounding various forms of competition and what the company actually does. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022635239873417345 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022635239873417345"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"2) Markets hate unknowns and $APP is a real reflection of that currently. APP is getting crushed because the market is unsure where the business sits in the world of gaming and e-commerce. If APP is just a gaming ad network then margins are likely to compress over time. But if MAX can scale in the world of e-commerce then APP is likely to be a winner. I have high conviction in the latter and I am going to explain why https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022635241739854278 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022635241739854278"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"3) The main elephant in the room is competition - specifically from $META. During the earnings call the vast majority of questions and debate were about the threat that $META poses to $APP. I think this speaks for itself and shows where peoples heads are at. The market thinks Meta poses a threat to AppLovin and so I think they want tangible proof that a player of Metas scale cant disrupt AppLovins growth in a new market. I think that we see management execute continuously quarter on quarter and so for the most part I think the market is getting this one wrong."
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"4) I think the market's confusion about competitive threats stems from the lack of understanding about $APP two-sided model. MAX = The Auction Platform : When you see an ad in a mobile game there is a split second auction. Meta Google Unity and APP all bid to show their ad. MAX RUNS the auction picks the highest bidder and takes 5% cut. MAX started in gaming apps and is now expanding into e-commerce apps. AXON [---] = AppLovins AI Bidder : This is AppLovins AI that COMPETES in MAX auctions bidding against Meta Google and others. APP owns the auction AND competes in the autctions. When Axon 2.-"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"5) When asked about CloudX entering mediation CEO Adam Foroughis response was blunt stating that : The moat around our mediation is not because of the mediation. We are very good. We have got the most bid density. In any mediation A or B test if you have talked to publishers you will hear MAX does better." The reality is that a new mediation platform would need to simultaneously achieve [--]. Higher Bid Density than MAX [--]. Better AI than Axon [---] [--]. Stronger publisher relationships I think this an extremely high bar and so I think there is no threat to MAX in the mediation business"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"6) Investors worry Metas social data (knowing exactly who users are via FB and IG logins) gives them an insurmountable advantage over Axon 2.0s probabilistic model when bidding in MAX auctions. Managements counter argument has two parts: First it would violate Apples $APPL terms. Using internal social graph data to target opt-out users is explicitly against platform rules. Meta isn't going to risk their entire iOS relationship for incremental ad revenue. Second the competitive landscape has fundamentally changed. Investors are anchoring to historical data from [--] years ago when Meta dominated"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"7) In addition to this competition actually helps $APP. When more advertisers bid in MAX prices rise and publishers make more money. They reinvest that into user acquisition creating more inventory. APP collects 5% on all competitor wins so a higher bid density = more revenue Even when $APP does lose an auction inside MAX they still take a 5% cut on the winner. So $APP benefits regardless https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022635252213063813 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022635252213063813"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"8) The underlying business is still remarkable Q4 [----] : Revenue: $1.66B (up 66% YoY) Adjusted EBITDA: $1.4B (up 82% YoY 84% margin) EBITDA margin expansion: 700+ basis points YoY Q/Q flow-through to EBITDA: 95% (nearly every incremental revenue dollar converted to earnings) Free cash flow: $1.31B (up 88% YoY) Cash balance: $2.5B Full Year [----] : Revenue: $5.48B (up 70%) EBITDA: $4.51B (up 87% 82% margin) Free cash flow: $3.95B (up 91%) As CFO Matt Stumpf noted investors often reference the Rule of [--] in software - the idea that revenue growth plus profit margin should exceed 40%. AppLovins"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@NuttyCLD @Shakazulu117 $ACMR"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"New Mini Deep Dive into Coupang $CPNG. One of my pals (who is invested in $CPNG) sent me a few posts on X from @JonahLupton who had written a bit about $CPNG. I am pretty sure he is one of the fair few that has actually broken down the narrative with $CPNG - so credit goes to him. I just thought I would do my own research as I hate buying things I don't fully understand. https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/coupang-mini-deep-dive-nyse-cpngr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"
X Link 2026-01-31T20:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"January Reflection now out on my Substack : Excel Spreedsheet Tracker here - Main positions still remain $BE $ACMR $NEM Smaller positions $TE $APP $DFTX $NKTR https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11Dn5k6Py44-feozlWMqsFkf3QH4WZMrGGHZPsKYWVrw/editusp=sharing https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/january-reflectionr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11Dn5k6Py44-feozlWMqsFkf3QH4WZMrGGHZPsKYWVrw/editusp=sharing"
X Link 2026-01-31T22:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Im currently working on my $APP Q4 earnings write-up and wanted to share a few thoughts before posting it. Right now the market seems uncertain about what AppLovin really is. Is it just a gaming ad network or is it becoming a serious player in the broader e-commerce advertising space There are also concerns that $META could limit AppLovins ability to scale its e-commerce business. On the earnings call management pushed back on this idea arguing that increased competition actually strengthens their marketplace economics rather than weakens them. It feels like the market wants more proof in"
X Link 2026-02-13T18:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Full $APP Q4 earnings writeup now up on my Substack : https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/applovin-q4-earnings-writeup-ther=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/applovin-q4-earnings-writeup-ther=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"
X Link 2026-02-13T22:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Detailed Thread regarding AppLovin's $APP Q4 Earnings and why the Market is getting this Wrong"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"15) I think APP conservatively grows EBITDA at 60% YoY throughout [----]. If they do 60% EBITDA growth YoY for [----] then APP should do at least $7B in EBITDA for [----]. At a price of $365 per share that means youre paying roughly 18x NTM EV/EBITDA for a company growing EBITDA 60% YoY. I think as well in the back half of [----] we should see acceleration as self-service general availability launches and e-commerce scales. The stock has fallen over 50% from its highs while the underlying business has actually improved and is growing. The company is buying $2.58B in stock annually with $3.3B in"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"16) Full Writeup on Substack : https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/applovin-q4-earnings-writeup-ther=wlb8l https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/applovin-q4-earnings-writeup-ther=wlb8l"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"If anyone is bullish on $ACMR I would highly recommend giving this one a read. Essentially chips can't get any smaller and so Advanced Packaging is the way forward. $ACMR is growing its Advanced Packing sector at 231% YoY. Can't wait to see what that number is in earnings in a couple weeks time. https://t.co/mdmxKPUXNr https://t.co/mdmxKPUXNr"
X Link 2026-02-14T11:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@TechEquityEng $RDDT is not a software stock. Prime example explaining why $RDDT trades down along with Software names"
X Link 2026-02-14T20:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@crux_capital_ What are your opinions on $LITE vs $COHR vs $AAOI"
X Link 2026-02-15T14:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@aleabitoreddit $CRDO"
X Link 2026-02-15T14:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@amitisinvesting Short $TSLA"
X Link 2026-02-16T17:07Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@steve_platz Yeah apologies literally just checked this now. Will change. Was doing calculations based on market cap and stock price pre market so was skewed. Cheers for pointing this out"
X Link 2026-01-26T15:11Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Here are some of my own thoughts as I am long "sell US for [----] and think this is just the start 1) Immigration enforcement is now the top priority ICE is now the highest-funded federal law enforcement agency. After the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (July 2025) ICE has $85 billion available. Thats about $29 billion per year which is almost triple its previous budget. For comparison the Trump administrations [----] appropriations request for the entire Department of Justice (including the FBI) is just over $35 billion. Immigration enforcement now gets more funding than the combined budgets of all"
X Link 2026-01-26T17:50Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"Ok firstly they say in their earnings call they are getting at least 0.5oz / panel of silver so I am not sure behind the increase from $200 - $250. I am merely modelling what management is saying. Secondly I am a simple observer of what is going around. I don't like to take one side or the other politically. I am in the middle observing what is going around me and trying to be [--] - [--] steps ahead of the market. Yes Trump will try to goose the markets ahead of elections. But this all comes down to the fundamental problem of the Wealth Gap in the USA. Also with the massive operating losses this"
X Link 2026-01-26T18:11Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Haha. Look you can have your opinion and I can have mine. We will speak macro at the end of [----] once it has all played out and see who won. At the end of the day we are probably both going to do well as investors in $LODE. I just like to have a macro hedge going into [----] ahead of volatility https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015851609796772197 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015851609796772197"
X Link 2026-01-26T18:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Just posted my full Deep Dive into $ACMR and why it is 68% undervalued compared to its staked assets : FYI I have a 12% position and may add more depending on pullbacks https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/deep-dive-into-acmrr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/deep-dive-into-acmrr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"
X Link 2026-01-12T19:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$ACMR down 5% today despite objectively bullish China news: domestic equipment share hit 35% in [----] (vs 25% in 2024) with new 50%+ domestic sourcing requirements for fab expansions. ACM Shanghai is classified as a domestic supplier meaning ACMR benefits from localization alongside NAURA/AMEC taking share from $AMAT/ $LRCX / $TEL. Selloff looks like noise ahead of Jan [--] guidance rather than fundamental deterioration. The China equipment substitution wave is a tailwind not a headwind. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011103692338954426 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011103692338954426"
X Link 2026-01-13T15:50Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@mathlonning Thinking off doing the same but $ACMR is up 4.5% pre market 🤦"
X Link 2026-01-15T12:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"January Update : Currently up 22% YTD. Core positions remain : $BE $TMDX $ACMR $APP Full January Investment Newsletter now up on my Substack : https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/january-newsletter https://jonathankay33.substack.com/p/january-newsletter"
X Link 2026-01-16T18:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Day [--] of The Kay Letter is now out on Substack : Topics discussed : 1) Greenland and Geopolitics 2) My positions and why they are unaffected 3) Short report on $APP and why it is noise 4) Why $ACMR is going to crush revenue guidance on Thursday 5) Why [----] will be the year for Gold https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/the-kay-letter-trump-tariffs-andr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/the-kay-letter-trump-tariffs-andr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"
X Link 2026-01-20T11:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Apologies I have been away for the weekend so have not been active on socials. One of my next deep dives will be on Comstock $LODE. Currently I am modelling the stock price based off forward guidance for management surrounding their new state of the art solar recycling facilities that can process 100k tons or 3.3M solar panels a year. Management states that they could be processing 200k tons a year by [----]. Considering silver prices are sky high - and I see them going higher as the sell US trade matures I think $LODE could be a [--] - [--] bagger over the next few years. FYI this model does not"
X Link 2026-01-26T15:13Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"@DonnoShid Its hard to tell in what time horizon Bioleum will IPO. Management reckons [--] - [--] years. Either way its a great piece on information the market probably doesnt appreciate"
X Link 2026-01-26T16:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"This well and truly hits the nail on the head @RayDalio. Thought I would elaborate on this a touch more because I think [----] is the year for "sell US". 1) Immigration enforcement is now the top priority ICE is now the highest-funded federal law enforcement agency. After the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (July 2025) ICE has $85 billion available. Thats about $29 billion per year which is almost triple its previous budget. For comparison the Trump administrations [----] appropriations request for the entire Department of Justice (including the FBI) is just over $35 billion. Immigration enforcement"
X Link 2026-01-26T17:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Ok so here is what it would look like with your numbers. I think [----] is a "sell US trade" as volatility corruption and other tensions occur. As such investors will seek hard assets in times like these. I recently reposted an Article today on Ray Dalio's thoughts surrounding the US. I also outlined mine in this post so feel free to read that as well since all my "sell US" thoughts are outlined in there as well. Also management said they are getting 60% spot rev prices on silver in earnings call - not sure whether you want to be conservative at 50% but I am just going to go with what"
X Link 2026-01-26T17:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Yeah would make it so much more clearer if we actually knew in concrete what the deal they get on the silver and other minerals. Hopefully this gets brought up on the next earnings call. These are the numbers that I got when I put $250/Ton in. I still don't own a position as the risk/reward probably isn't there until it becomes clearer with what the gig is with silver"
X Link 2026-01-28T11:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@mathlonning Would be odd though if $ACMR crushed earnings as well despite conservative [----] full year guidance only a week or so ago"
X Link 2026-01-30T14:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@thexcapitalist If $BE wobbles off this I will buy"
X Link 2026-02-02T13:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@aleabitoreddit What are your thoughts though when they actually ramp up supply to meet demand and prices fall Yes this seems like a negative thing to say for someone who missed the memory cycle but just curious"
X Link 2026-02-02T17:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"I still think $BE will do great in their Q4 earnings tomorrow. They literally sold 50% of their 2GW capacity within [--] days of [----]. I think it is pretty obvious that demand is there. For now the stock is down 20% today. Guess that is momentum trading for you. I will probably size up a position to hold through earnings. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019108900075692286 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019108900075692286"
X Link 2026-02-04T18:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"For now I am 50% in cash. Waiting to add to the ideas that I like. $BE $TE $NBIS $ACMR $APP"
X Link 2026-02-04T18:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$BE reports earnings today. Will be doing a full write up later"
X Link 2026-02-05T12:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$BE reports earnings tonight. Revenue is expected to be $646.84M and EPS is expected to be $0.24. $BE managed to sell 1.1GW out of its 2GW capacity within just [--] days of [----] starting. I think this makes it pretty clear that demand is there and that $BE will likely sell its entire GW capacity in [----]. I believe this should start to show up in earnings tonight for $BE. Normally I would be leveraged through earnings. However with the current fear and chaos around the AI trade especially after AMDs slowing guidance I am concerned that unless $BE beats expectations by more than [--] percent and"
X Link 2026-02-05T14:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"What did I say. A company is clearly doing well if they can sell over 50% of their yearly capacity in [--] days of [----]. $BE"
X Link 2026-02-05T21:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Will publish a full $BE earnings writeup at either some point tomorrow or the weekend on Substack"
X Link 2026-02-05T21:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@celestial4104 @ContrarianCurse I just listened the earnings call. It almost felt like they couldn't give long term guidance because demand is off the charts"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@ContrarianCurse $BE"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"1/ Bloom Energy was my top idea going into [----]. I bought roughly 25% of my book in the $90s sold 80% at $174 when the stock hit all time highs and later bought back at $135 after the pullback to $136. I sold initially because I was up 88% in [--] weeks and BE is a high beta name where momentum can reverse quickly"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"2/ The earnings setup was strong. Bloom sold 1.1GW of its 2GW capacity within just [--] days of [----] which clearly signals demand. At the same time the AI trade is energy constrained and Bloom demonstrated speed to power by supplying a full Oracle data center in [--] days versus [--] days guided. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019781792144797952 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019781792144797952"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"3/ Another key takeaway from the call was that Blooms fuel cell technology can reduce electricity usage by at least 20%. For hyperscalers operating on roughly 2025% margins that level of cost reduction is highly meaningful and directly supports demand"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"4/ I avoided options into Q4 earnings despite high conviction. Premiums were elevated due to volatility and the market had been punishing even strong prints as seen with Google selling off despite beating across metrics. Instead I increased my equity exposure at $135"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"5/ Stepping back my main conclusion from the earnings call is that guidance does not reflect what is actually happening on the ground. Management sounded constrained in giving long term guidance because demand is accelerating too quickly to confidently forecast"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"13/ Using analyst cost estimates and Blooms margin profile full 2GW deployment could support $1012B of revenue depending on pricing assumptions. Under both higher and lower pricing scenarios current guidance implies only 2731% utilization"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"14/ Even a moderate utilization case suggests upside. At 65% utilization and $4500/kW pricing total revenue could approach $6B in [----] versus $3.2B guided. Combined with operating leverage EBITDA growth would materially outpace revenue growth"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@mathlonning Been hearing on X that there is some potential for a data center deal soon. Dont know if I fully believe this. Still havnt read into it properly and not familiar with $WBI"
X Link 2026-01-07T20:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"January Update: Currently up 22% YTD which is pretty decent. Core main positions remain $BE $TMDX $ACMR January Investment Newsletter on my Substack below https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/january-newsletterr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/jonathankay33/p/january-newsletterr=wlb8l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"
X Link 2026-01-16T18:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$GRPO GOPRO Thread 🧵1/13 : Why GoPro could 10x - 100x as a humanoid and AI data play"
X Link 2025-08-27T20:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"9/13 : In [--] year if $GRPO monetizes even 10% of new uploads = $1B dataset value potential - even at the low end of $80/TB Considering $GRPO made $800 million in [----] this almost doubles its revenue Stock price = $3.8 even if P/S multiples remain the same"
X Link 2025-08-27T20:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"12/13 : âš Ultimately there are always risks: AI labs may prefer synthetic data. Legal/licensing infrastructure needed for user content. Execution risk in pivoting away from just cameras"
X Link 2025-08-27T20:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"13/13 : Right now I am extremely bullish on $GRPO and waiting to see how the stock builds traction ahead of news"
X Link 2025-08-27T20:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"ACM Research releases preliminary [----] revenue guidance this week on Thursday with management guiding $875M to $925M. However I wouldnt be surprised to see this come in closer to $1B given several Q4 tailwinds: the first panel-level packaging tool ships this quarter with management highlighting strong interest from China Taiwan and US customers; advanced packaging revenue already up 231% YoY to $27.7M in Q3; deferred shipments from Q3 now hitting Q4; and the first KrF track system delivery opening a new product category. On margins while management reiterated their 42-48% target model and"
X Link 2026-01-20T20:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"3/13 : 🤖 Why this matters: Humanoid robots need to learn motor skills + edge cases from real human perspective. Lab simulations & synthetic data cant capture this. $GRPRO POV dataset is scarce unique and perfect for training embodied AI"
X Link 2025-08-27T20:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"4/13 : $GRPO Go Pro's footage is also unique in itself First-person format = perfect for robots. Millions of devices sold continuous new footage. User base already happy to share videos. Add rev-share Users will upload even more. This is a flywheel"
X Link 2025-08-27T20:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"5/13 : This could generate massive revenue potential for $GRPO AI companies are paying millions for high-quality datasets. As a base asset $GRPO has [---] PB of Content Assuming $50 - $200 per PB of data to train humanoids (pretty conservative) : 450PB x $100 = $45B"
X Link 2025-08-27T20:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"6/13 : This is all baseline potential licensing revenue which is all from their vault of data. Some of this data is not POV but even in a worst case scenario this is 10% which still gives $GRPO $4.5B"
X Link 2025-08-27T20:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"7/13 : The User Participation Model also makes it attractive as users can opt-in to license their content giving them a 50/50 rev share over their content with $GRPO"
X Link 2025-08-27T20:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"8/13 : Assuming 10% of users opt-in (250k users) and the average user creates 50GB per year = 12.5PB fresh content a year that $GRPO can sell to humanoid companies training robots"
X Link 2025-08-27T20:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

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