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@Greenbackd Avatar @Greenbackd Tobias Carlisle

Tobias Carlisle posts on X about red, end of, $oex, yield curve the most. They currently have XXXXXX followers and XX posts still getting attention that total XXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.

Engagements: XXXXX #

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Mentions: X #

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Followers: XXXXXX #

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CreatorRank: XXXXXXX #

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance XX% stocks XX%

Social topic influence red 10%, end of #778, $oex #1, yield curve 5%, the first 5%, commodities 5%, silver 5%, sentiment 5%, inflation 5%, market cap X%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @callumthomas @topdowncharts @akwilk @markmap4 @iiicapital @spystsignals @mr_neutral_man @vanckzhu @alanmcmaster88 @barbariancap @matyr3al @spice1975503 @jbreuckm @andyflattery @thotschild

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"The yield curve re-steepening suggests we are entering the "danger zone" In almost every cycle back to the 1960s recessions began after the 3-10 Treasury curve re-steepened not during the inversion. The first chart shows the 3-Month Treasury (blue) vs. 10-Year Treasury (red) This chart shows the actual levels of the short end (3-month) and long end (10-year) of the yield curve from late 2021 through late 2025. The second chart shows the FRED 10Y 3M Spread (Yield Curve) This is the spread not the levels. It shows the difference between long-term rates and short-term rates. Between 20222024 the"
X Link 2025-12-08T16:09Z 69.9K followers, 370.3K engagements

"Stock market returns over next decade are likely well below average. According to this model based on the Shiller PE around XXX% per year total return which includes XXXX% in dividends meaning the index is likely negative by about -XXX% per year. The chart shows three series from 1880 to the present based on the Shiller PE: * Actual Total Return (Blue 10-yr CAGR) Realized forward returns from each point in time. * Implied Total Return (Red): An expected return model based on Shiller PE valuation * Average Total Return (Gold): A long-run meanroughly XX% real or XXX% nominal depending on"
X Link 2025-12-03T18:18Z 69.9K followers, 7804 engagements

"Oil's making all the other commodities look good"
X Link 2025-12-09T20:42Z 69.9K followers, 9678 engagements

"Top XX holdings in the High Beta (speculative) index"
X Link 2025-12-09T23:43Z 69.9K followers, 11.8K engagements

"Every recession since 1960 has been preceded by a material downturn in this ratio. Todays reading is squarely in that danger zone. These charts show the Leading Economic Index (LEI) against the Coincident Economic Index (CEI). LEI = things that move ahead of the economy (orders hours worked sentiment credit conditions). CEI = things that move with the economy (employment income production). When the ratio is high leading data is strong relative to current conditions the future looks more buoyant than the present. When the ratio falls the forward-looking data weakens relative to current"
X Link 2025-12-02T16:45Z 69.9K followers, 177.7K engagements

"I track the 2-Year Treasury Yield because it leads both inflation and the Fed This chart shows three key macro indicators from 2016 to 2025: X. 2-Year Treasury Yield (blue line) A market-priced expectation of short-term interest rates and inflation. Tends to lead Fed policy and is highly sensitive to economic conditions. X. Federal Funds Effective Rate (red line) The Feds actual policy rate lagging and slower to move than market rates. X. U.S. CPI Inflation (green line) Year-over-year inflation. Shaded area = U.S. recessions. You can clearly see: In 20202021 the 2-year yield surged before the"
X Link 2025-12-08T17:09Z 69.9K followers, 15.4K engagements

"This chart plots the ratio of the Russell 2000 Index to the S&P XXX Index from the early 1990s to today. Russell 2000 = 2000 small caps by market cap inclusion rules are mostly mechanical and allow many unprofitable / lower-quality companies. S&P XXX = XXX small caps screened for profitability (positive earnings) and generally of higher quality. The ratio measures the relative performance of junkier small caps (Russell 2000) vs. higher-quality small caps (S&P 600). Companies screened for profitability (S&P 600) dramatically outperform the broader Russell 2000. Quality matters enormously in"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:56Z 69.9K followers, 259.6K engagements

"A very rare small value stealth bomber formation"
X Link 2025-12-11T17:13Z 69.9K followers, 21.5K engagements

"We are at (or near) the most extreme growth-over-value cycle in modern history. On a relative basis growth is now more expensive vs. value than at any point in XX years including the tech bubble. Todays style imbalance (growth dominance) is more extreme than the dot-com peak. But it might have just turned the corner. First chart is S&P XXX Growth vs. S&P XXX Value as a Percent of the S&P XXX Index Blue line = Growths share of S&P XXX market cap Red line = Values share of S&P XXX market cap Second is Growth-to-Value Ratio (Growth Value)"
X Link 2025-12-11T18:30Z 69.9K followers, 16.9K engagements

"Top XX holdings in the Low Volatility (boring) index"
X Link 2025-12-12T16:37Z 69.9K followers, 27K engagements

"You'd need to be a bolder man than me to call it but this is what the end of a speculative top looks like. Chart shows the ratio of the S&P XXX ($OEX) to the S&P XXX 👉 When the ratio rises: megacaps are outperforming the rest of the market. 👉 When it falls: smaller S&P XXX constituents are outperforming megacaps. Megacap outperformance peaks near major market tops. After every peak the ratio mean reverts sharply We are in a textbook megacap-concentration blowoff Historically this does not last. And we may have just witnessed the top"
X Link 2025-12-12T16:54Z 69.9K followers, 162.3K engagements