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@Globalflows Avatar @Globalflows Capital Flows

The current market trend indicates that inflation risk is greater than recession risk, with stocks and risk assets rallying as bonds sell off. This is driven by a credit cycle surge and excess liquidity in the system, which is expected to continue pushing equities and risk assets higher. The market is positioning for a potential rate cut by the Fed, despite rising inflation data.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance #1852 cryptocurrencies #455 countries XXXX% social networks XXXX% technology brands XXXX% stocks XXXX% exchanges XXXX% vc firms XXXX% currencies XXXX%

Social topic influence macro #18, liquidity #53, bitcoin #182, to the #6250, if you 5.13%, japan #1926, silver #409, carry #1563, bearish #77, inflation #162

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @trader1sz @modern_bazar @10009nyny @reallesgoh @jaredkubin @william_r2rclub @bullmendi @tiannanzhang1 @0x13darksoldier @dcmonalds @vandvalue @pippopotamus @locustfunds @mcclartyphilip @encryptbit @zfxtrading @mmm8160 @algoflows @remindme_ofthis @real_zelmo

Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) Warner Bros Discovery, Inc. (WBD) Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) FedoraCoin (TIPS)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"These are THE TOP BOOKS I would give someone who wants to understand macro interest rates and FX: 🧵 Understanding the history of money"
X Link 2025-12-04T02:25Z 79.9K followers, 209.4K engagements

"If we were moving into a recession the curve would be much flatter"
X Link 2025-11-19T18:27Z 79.8K followers, 15.3K engagements

"Gold and silver are down on the day but copper is functionally flat Take note of that there is a bid in there imo"
X Link 2025-10-17T18:47Z 79.8K followers, 23.1K engagements

"@t__i__p I dont make the rules"
X Link 2025-11-28T15:02Z 79.8K followers, XXX engagements

"I dont subscribe to any camp of macro beliefs Im just here to compete at the highest level and win Welcome to global macro. There are no rules"
X Link 2025-12-01T01:40Z 79.8K followers, 11.8K engagements

"Here is the thesis for the macro endgame More on this in the webinar for tomorrow. Link is below"
X Link 2025-12-01T19:59Z 79.8K followers, 24K engagements

"Ill be sending out an entire suite of tradingview indicators Thursday to map global macro changes Linked below"
X Link 2025-12-02T20:02Z 79.8K followers, 24.5K engagements

"Watching how equities and bonds respond to dollar down days is critical right now Consensus doesn't want to acknowledge the dollar endgame we are in I laid out the entire playbook in the link below"
X Link 2025-12-03T14:58Z 79.8K followers, 14.2K engagements

"The entire question is HOW does this impact my portfolio and allocation decisions This is why I published a full playbook with allocation strategy and the signals for WHEN the risks are increasing"
X Link 2025-12-05T00:13Z 79.8K followers, 2484 engagements

"All of this is going to come together tomorrow when I publish the report on the connection to Japan and the global carry trade taking place right now:"
X Link 2025-12-05T00:13Z 79.8K followers, 8085 engagements

"None of this will end well Fear is on the horizon When my strategy flips bearish I will publish it here:"
X Link 2025-12-05T00:13Z 79.8K followers, 5232 engagements

"GM HOLDING ES LONG HOLDING GOLD LONG HOLDING SILVER LONG HOLDING RTY LONG Everything was laid out for The Capital Flows Community The next move will be published today on the website If you don't align the structural cyclical and positioning factors you'll always be lost"
X Link 2025-12-05T15:12Z 79.8K followers, 21.5K engagements

"@Vince_R_Jansen The quantity of money with inflation in the economy can rise which will be reflected in CPI and the quantity of money in financial markets can rise reflected in capital moving out the risk curve/valuation expansion I guess it would depend what specific youre refering too"
X Link 2025-12-08T19:41Z 79.9K followers, XXX engagements

"Macro Report: A Storm Is Coming"
X Link 2025-11-26T19:45Z 79.9K followers, 143.4K engagements

"QT ending was already priced in This isn't the driver right now Look closer"
X Link 2025-12-01T15:56Z 79.9K followers, 21.4K engagements

"There is way to much misinformation about Japan and the carry trade going around right now Im going to share my entire Japan trading playbook this Friday If this tweet gets 1k likes Ill make it free for everyone 🤝 Run it hot frens 🫡"
X Link 2025-12-03T20:56Z 79.9K followers, 34.8K engagements

"People who think the Yen carry trade is sending US mortgage rates higher are absolutely cooked They are the uninformed money. We need someone on the other side of the trade tho so always give thanks 🤲"
X Link 2025-12-03T21:00Z 79.9K followers, 12.7K engagements

"All of the intraday trading papers are here If you are trying to understand liquidity provision on a low timeframe you should read these"
X Link 2025-12-04T02:17Z 79.9K followers, 56.2K engagements

"If you understand how liquidity is functioning then you know how much risk there is from cross-border flows right now The current account (white) has gone off a cliff which is dragging capital into the US by foreigners (blue)"
X Link 2025-12-04T23:32Z 79.9K followers, 17.7K engagements

"Global trade has created more liquidity for crypto than all the central banks combined When you realize this then you'll understand why Bitcoin rallied so much during QT Welcome to global macro"
X Link 2025-12-04T23:37Z 79.9K followers, 13.1K engagements

"The moment that Trump takes office (red arrow) the DXY begins to fall and this is only the beginning"
X Link 2025-12-04T23:43Z 79.9K followers, 17.8K engagements

"Not trying to bet against Kushner"
X Link 2025-12-08T15:20Z 79.9K followers, 13.9K engagements

"My macro thesis is laid out here: In my view there are downside risks building for equities which is why I am currently neutral If this stance changes to bearish or back to bullish I will publish it The storm is forming on the horizon"
X Link 2025-12-08T19:22Z 79.9K followers, 28.9K engagements

"@pippopotamus @LocustFunds @TexasOncologist FWIW The article seems misleading Doesnt seem like the full picture I could be wrong tho"
X Link 2025-12-10T23:25Z 79.9K followers, XXX engagements

"The Storm Is Coming - The Most Important Video I'm Making All Year"
X Link 2025-11-29T18:18Z 79.9K followers, 82.8K engagements

"The Storm Is Coming - The Most Important Video I'm Making All Year -"
X Link 2025-12-01T01:23Z 79.9K followers, 89.2K engagements

"If you don't have a Bloomberg bookmark this tweet"
X Link 2025-12-04T02:17Z 79.9K followers, 413.8K engagements

"People fail in trading because they don't do this"
X Link 2025-12-04T02:18Z 79.9K followers, 73.4K engagements

"The Coming Storm in Global Carry: Japans Pivot and the Flows No One Is Watching"
X Link 2025-12-05T21:14Z 79.9K followers, 55.1K engagements

"Watch this before making any trades this week"
X Link 2025-12-08T15:55Z 79.9K followers, 29.7K engagements

"@BitwiseInvest Imagine not being long fartcoin"
X Link 2025-12-08T19:03Z 79.9K followers, 2309 engagements

"I recorded an entire video last night explaining real interest rates and their connection to the macro regime:"
X Link 2025-12-09T15:24Z 79.9K followers, 3841 engagements

"If your best example of the system being "against the little guy" is CPI data being manipulated you're not going to make it"
X Link 2025-12-09T16:26Z 79.9K followers, 9797 engagements

"Who should I do a podcast/spaces with and who should I be following"
X Link 2025-12-09T16:27Z 79.9K followers, 12.3K engagements

"1 year inflation swaps are collapsing as the H7 contract is pricing fewer cuts This is pushing real rates higher and creating headwinds for equities"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:51Z 79.9K followers, 28.7K engagements

"One of the key charts I covered in the livestream: X year inflation swaps are collapsing as the H7 contract is pricing fewer cuts This is pushing real rates higher and creating headwinds for equities"
X Link 2025-12-10T01:04Z 79.9K followers, 44K engagements

"What is driving the drawdown in Bitcoin When you stop listening to Bitcoin pundits and start listening to what Bitcoin is saying about itself then you will see the real truth I am going to lay out the X major things you need to watch for Bitcoin right now 🧵"
X Link 2025-12-11T16:00Z 79.9K followers, 35.4K engagements

"Bitcoin primarily has a positive correlation with risk assets. This is Bitcoin telling you that it has a high sensitivity to flows into risk assets (bottom panel shows correlation with SPX). Bitcoin speaks and doesn't need anyone to speak for it as a decentralized network"
X Link 2025-12-11T16:00Z 79.9K followers, 4252 engagements

"Bitcoin has deviated from equity indices recently because it has a high sensitivity to changes in macro liquidity and the risk curve. What is driving this right now This brings us to the second point"
X Link 2025-12-11T16:00Z 79.9K followers, 4118 engagements

"Second Bitcoin is currently being driven by the changes in real interest rates. Even if the Fed cuts rates the entire question is how is this input driving liquidity ON NET. The chart below shows X year real interest rates inverted with BTC overlaid. Notice the changes in real rates are moving in lockstep with BTC"
X Link 2025-12-11T16:00Z 79.9K followers, 4258 engagements

"In simple terms all of the people that hold all of the capital put up and take down risk across ALL BTC proxies at the same time. So we need to see BTC proxy plays OUTPERFORM Bitcoin for a durable move out the risk curve"
X Link 2025-12-11T16:00Z 79.9K followers, 8855 engagements

"@McclartyPhilip not at the moment i focus on absolute returns and active trades"
X Link 2025-12-11T16:48Z 79.9K followers, XX engagements

"One of the notes to paid subscribers on the higher probability of EURUSD likely to rally Notice the curve and how we are pushing the dollar lower This is a key driver right here and why gold and silver are getting a bid"
X Link 2025-11-25T18:00Z 79.9K followers, 65.3K engagements

"MAIN RISK TO US EQUITIES"
X Link 2025-12-04T23:49Z 79.9K followers, 14.7K engagements

"I also included an entire interest rate and FX strategy guide since crossborder liquidity is directly linked with interest rates. Why Because interest rates and the currency are two sides to the same coin NOT two separate markets:"
X Link 2025-12-05T00:13Z 79.9K followers, 2208 engagements

"The forms of capital are changing in the system While everyone is complaining about not having assets few are focusing on building informational and social capital There is never a point in time where its optimal to become successful"
X Link 2025-12-07T20:50Z 79.9K followers, 10.3K engagements

"The entire question moving into this week is how Powell will guide rate cut expectations for 2026 when he is only going to be around for half the year"
X Link 2025-12-08T00:33Z 79.9K followers, 13.8K engagements

"Capital Flows Macro Livestream XX Charts Mapping The Credit Cycle"
X Link 2025-12-09T00:14Z 79.9K followers, 60K engagements

"My stance is significantly less aggressive and waiting for a fat pitch. There are two ways this can occur: 1) My strategy flips short because liquidity contracts further and equities begin having downside. In this scenario I would begin shorting equities 2) My strategy flips long because the headwinds in liquidity begin to prove short term in nature and the skew begins to turn back to the bullish side for US equities. In this scenario I would begin to run longs again"
X Link 2025-12-09T15:24Z 79.9K followers, 1808 engagements

"Gold and silver are going to keep functioning as the release valve for macro liquidity in the system until the trade imbalances are resolved Countries like the US and Japan are trying to actively push their currencies down against other currencies in order to rebalance trade This creates positive and negative liquidity impulses that need to be managed"
X Link 2025-12-09T16:20Z 79.9K followers, 18.7K engagements

"Imagine that we aren't in a recession First everyone says the data is fake then they want it back when the government shuts down You cant make this stuff up"
X Link 2025-12-09T16:26Z 79.9K followers, 14.5K engagements

"Macro Risk & Mindset: How to Survive the Cycle Without Blowing Up -"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:40Z 79.9K followers, 44.6K engagements

"@encryptbit TV: TVC:US10Y FRED:T10YIE or $TIPS etf"
X Link 2025-12-10T01:41Z 79.9K followers, XXX engagements

"The "QE" is priced in already anon"
X Link 2025-12-10T19:40Z 79.9K followers, 22.5K engagements

"My macro views"
X Link 2025-12-10T20:54Z 79.9K followers, 18.6K engagements

"Gm frens Christ is KING"
X Link 2025-12-11T14:12Z 79.9K followers, 5737 engagements

"Watching all of the BTC-connected public equities will be key As I will say over and over if you truly believe in Bitcoin's decentralized ability then you will listen to it. Bitcoin will tell you everything you need to know about it via the price"
X Link 2025-12-11T16:00Z 79.9K followers, 2939 engagements

"When foreigners buy US assets to recycle their trade surpluses it pushes valuations higher. When that flow reverses equities fall much faster than people expect"
X Link 2025-12-01T01:21Z 79.9K followers, 25.9K engagements

"First Bitcoin functions as a release valve for macro liquidity on the RISK CURVE. This means Bitcoin is telling you that it is a risk asset"
X Link 2025-12-11T16:00Z 79.9K followers, 6399 engagements

"If you are trying to understand HOW real rates drive equities and risk assets this is how they work:"
X Link 2025-12-11T16:00Z 79.9K followers, 4171 engagements

"The changes in real interest rates and volatility in the dollar is directly connected to the macro end game I have been laying out for a while. I will be doing an entire livestream on it tomorrow that is available to everyone. The details are here:"
X Link 2025-12-11T16:00Z 79.9K followers, 5352 engagements

"The third thing to watch is how positioning is pricing downside and pushing around hedging pressure. Notice the implied volatility in IBIT has come down marginally as Bitcoin is consolidating. We are still seeing the Bitcoin proxy plays fall marginally which shows how the market is accepting Bitcoin"
X Link 2025-12-11T16:00Z 79.9K followers, 3534 engagements

"A lot of FX and rate flows playing into equities today"
X Link 2025-12-11T17:42Z 79.9K followers, 3976 engagements

"Markets still assume dollar weakness is bullish The truth is the source of that USD weakness determines whether you get a rally or a systemic break"
X Link 2025-11-30T23:18Z 79.9K followers, 22.2K engagements

"This is what I believe will happen in macro: So let me share with you the truth that very few people agree with me on: I believe we are going to see an increase in macro volatility in the next XX months that will dwarf 2022 COVID and potentially 2008 but the SOURCE of volatility will be from an orchestrated devaluation in the dollar against major currencies. Most people think that a fall in the dollar or dollar devaluation will cause risk assets to rally but this couldnt be further from the truth. I believe this is the biggest risk in markets today. Most investors once assumed mortgages were"
X Link 2025-12-04T23:42Z 79.9K followers, 46.9K engagements

"The global trade system is the most cross-collateralized portfolio in existence The problem is that there is no central bank put in place for global trade there is only geopolitical escalation Japan is at a convergence point where it is importing A TON from China and the US If you understand how this functions then you'll understand WHY JGB yields are melting up This is going to set the stage for a much larger shock in macro volatility. I will be publishing a report on this convergence tomorrow:"
X Link 2025-12-04T23:56Z 79.9K followers, 97.5K engagements

"Gm My macro thesis is laid out in the video below Im cooking up the next report explaining the risk reward levels of equities and interest rate If this tweet gets 1k likes Ill make it free for everyone 🤝"
X Link 2025-12-09T13:56Z 79.9K followers, 12.8K engagements

"2) Growth is significantly weaker but still resilient. The implication here is that a small rise in real interest rates could begin putting a lot more downward pressure on equities"
X Link 2025-12-09T15:24Z 79.9K followers, 2387 engagements

"The entire growth picture is part of the much larger issues that exist in the system right now and these are unlikely to go away anytime soon unless dramatic reform occurs:"
X Link 2025-12-09T15:24Z 79.9K followers, 3292 engagements

"This idea of the K shaped economy has become a topic everyone is talking about because it represents the divergence between equities and growth. I covered this chart in the video last night:"
X Link 2025-12-09T15:24Z 79.9K followers, 2181 engagements

"The critical thing to understand for the credit cycle is the link between valuations and liquidity. Most value investors use valuations as their entire framework instead of an input to quantify their view on liquidity. We are at the highest price to sales ratio in history but this alone isnt bearish. It only becomes bearish when liquidity turns. Liquidity is contracting marginally and facing some headwinds but we are not in a full on bear market YET"
X Link 2025-12-09T15:24Z 79.9K followers, 1963 engagements

"China and Japan are directly linked to macro liquidity in the system This impacts gold and Bitcoin 👇"
X Link 2025-12-09T16:24Z 79.9K followers, 7988 engagements

"inflation expectations have been collapsing"
X Link 2025-12-10T19:36Z 79.9K followers, 6726 engagements

"Powell giving so much gasoline to the plumbing bro poasters lol"
X Link 2025-12-10T19:39Z 79.9K followers, 10.7K engagements

"This is the playbook for the risks around cross-border liquidity"
X Link 2025-12-10T21:18Z 79.9K followers, 25.6K engagements

"The entire problem is that people think the only thing that matters is the Fed People have tunnel vision on Powell and are going to get blindsided by the bigger macro changes"
X Link 2025-12-11T03:19Z 79.9K followers, 18K engagements

"Dollar down and BTC down Welcome to the new correlations of macro liquidity"
X Link 2025-12-11T15:39Z 79.9K followers, 15.2K engagements

"Cyclicals vs defensives (green/red) are making a massive rally right now as S&P500 returns are flattening out marginally Welcome to the rotation This is why I am not outright bearish US equities YET. Gotta pick your spots very carefully here"
X Link 2025-12-11T16:52Z 79.9K followers, 4064 engagements

"@matty_ice_BTC Not yet. I laid out the tensions here"
X Link 2025-12-11T17:35Z 79.9K followers, 1672 engagements

"@ZFXtrading well that is what has happened on the short end but growth is still resilient which is why we are seeing a rotation in equities"
X Link 2025-12-11T18:21Z 79.9K followers, XXX engagements

"@army_cows A lot needs to take place for that target to be hit So what are they going to do if it doesnt get hit"
X Link 2025-12-11T18:40Z 79.9K followers, XX engagements