@Globalflows Capital Flows
The current market trend indicates that inflation risk is greater than recession risk, with stocks and risk assets rallying as bonds sell off. This is driven by a credit cycle surge and excess liquidity in the system, which is expected to continue pushing equities and risk assets higher. The market is positioning for a potential rate cut by the Fed, despite rising inflation data.
Engagements: [------] #
- [--] Week [-------] -71%
- [--] Month [----------] +135%
- [--] Months [----------] -7.40%
- [--] Year [----------] +266%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [---] -49%
- [--] Month [---] +8%
- [--] Months [-----] +51%
- [--] Year [-----] +96%
Followers: [-------] #
- [--] Week [-------] +0.59%
- [--] Month [-------] +57%
- [--] Months [-------] +107%
- [--] Year [-------] +285%
CreatorRank: [-------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance cryptocurrencies #7388 stocks technology brands countries exchanges #2402 social networks currencies celebrities automotive brands
Social topic influence bitcoin, inflation, money, fomc, rates, fed, liquidity, macro, if you, has been
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @globalflows @trader1sz @sounddobad @prometheusmacro @bubblegoosexyz @realdonaldtrump @conksresearch @grok @profplum99 @pharmdks @elonmusk @tradingview @openai @billydollarcat @cryptoparadyme @skigodcrypto @hyperliquidx @opulentvocation @traderxo @interestrates
Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) Purr (PURR) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Rally (RLY) Alpha Technology Group Limited (ATGL) Strategy (MSTR) Solana (SOL) Hyperion DeFi (HYPD) Premia (PREMIA) Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) GameStop, Corp. (GME) Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) Bertram The Pomeranian (BERT) Hyperliquid (HYPE)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"God is ALWAYS good Psalm 107:1 Give thanks to the Lord for He is good For His mercy is everlasting"
X Link 2025-09-08T23:43Z 132.6K followers, [----] engagements
"This is why you need to watch TIPS price action every day. ETFs are: STIP TIP and LTPZ"
X Link 2023-04-02T17:01Z 39.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Credit risk is spiking rn into open"
X Link 2023-04-27T12:38Z 28K followers, [----] engagements
"A huge part of the distribution is concentrated in 2-5 years This is pretty significant. Goes to show WHY there is such a demand for financial education. Thankfully 👇 You wasted $150000 on an education you coulda got for $1.50 in late fees at the public library"
X Link 2023-04-28T00:42Z 28K followers, [----] engagements
"Credit risk vs monetary policy. This is what is causing the mean reversion in bonds as we have data prints/events that cause extremes on either tail"
X Link 2023-05-09T15:47Z 28K followers, [----] engagements
"Article with previous macro tweet 👇🏻🤝🔥 Next article was just dropped: How to build a strategy current macro regime signals and nonlinear learning. 👉https://t.co/q1fiBLilXi + Macro Thoughts Tweet: https://t.co/xQ6V663L4W https://t.co/k40dxGyITX Next article was just dropped: How to build a strategy current macro regime signals and nonlinear learning. 👉https://t.co/q1fiBLilXi + Macro Thoughts Tweet: https://t.co/xQ6V663L4W https://t.co/k40dxGyITX"
X Link 2023-05-18T01:58Z 53.3K followers, [----] engagements
"On May 3rd I opened a long dollar trade. As of today I have closed it. See link in bio for the article that provides more of a breakdown. Here was the trade. All the research and execution was transparent and clear. Its all shared Trade was closed for a gain 🔥 The ALPHA"
X Link 2023-05-22T14:37Z 13K followers, [--] engagements
"@SafeGamble Higher for longer = holding rates at an elevated level as opposed to additional hikes. Since Powells press conference and data releases there wasnt a clear indication that there were additional hikes. It was more of an issue with repricing the cuts as opposed to adding hikes"
X Link 2023-05-25T19:57Z 13K followers, [--] engagements
"And then I look at this chart:"
X Link 2023-05-25T23:39Z 12.9K followers, [--] engagements
"What happens when IF the FED raises its target or at least floats the idea to the market"
X Link 2023-05-25T23:39Z 12.9K followers, [--] engagements
"Additional signals. Link in bio 🤝"
X Link 2023-06-06T13:32Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"When people say risk management do you understand what they mean Plz be honest 🤝. Yes Honestly I have no clue Yes Honestly I have no clue"
X Link 2023-06-06T15:17Z 23K followers, [----] engagements
"@ExPostGigaChad $AI $PLTR $SMCI Welcome to the fun zone. Please watch your step as the ride may be bumpy"
X Link 2023-06-08T14:11Z 12.9K followers, [--] engagements
"Fra - ois moving back up. Like I said in the macro report: key signal = credit risk being the driver of vol"
X Link 2023-06-12T14:43Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Wework $WE is up over 8% today If you would have used 3x leverage you could have made a ton of money long today. Don't mind that its down 97% from ipo. Thats noise lol"
X Link 2023-06-15T19:24Z 26.2K followers, [----] engagements
"CDX Index going to touch on this more soon. Credit risk + real rates relationship"
X Link 2023-06-20T14:19Z 13.2K followers, [----] engagements
"$LULU trade @SAEDSALOMON shared is legit"
X Link 2023-06-20T14:43Z 13K followers, [----] engagements
"MACRO THOUGHTS: like/retweet for me guys🔥 We are transitioning into a period where negative growth will be the dominant impulse as opposed to inflation. What does it mean The drivers of macro vol are shifting and the people who have recency bias will be caught offsides"
X Link 2023-06-23T15:14Z 22.5K followers, 31.2K engagements
"US (purple) and AU (green) inflation swaps Make sense why monetary differentials have been driving fx flows"
X Link 2023-06-25T02:42Z 13K followers, [--] engagements
"How does this logic work I can begin to see inflation differentials and get an idea of the constraint on monetary policy. Knowing the structure of the economy allows you to take a more informed view of the persistence and structure of inflation"
X Link 2023-06-25T02:42Z 12.9K followers, [--] engagements
"to monetary policy. Therefore knowing the structure of the economy allows you to take a more informed view of inflation and monetary policy impact. This provides additional insight into the transition of inflation into disinflationary slowing growth"
X Link 2023-06-25T02:42Z 12.9K followers, [--] engagements
"This begins to inform your GIP (growth inflation policy) differential model which provides you a framework to analyze the causality of FX. It is this fundamental understanding of the mechanics that allows you to move beyond simple regression and short term momentum"
X Link 2023-06-25T02:42Z 13K followers, [--] engagements
"link in bio 🤝"
X Link 2023-06-27T13:52Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@merlinscapital There are times sir"
X Link 2023-06-29T23:40Z 13K followers, [---] engagements
"All these indicators are shadows on the wall of Plato's cave just remember that"
X Link 2023-06-29T23:27Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Watch your correlations"
X Link 2023-06-29T23:27Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"The SPX short will come. I will share it when my strategy triggers"
X Link 2023-06-30T00:19Z 13K followers, [--] engagements
"All the largest weightings in SPX and their implied volatility (bottom panel). I will provide all the signals and flows for the trade when it comes time to short SPX (link in bio)"
X Link 2023-06-30T00:34Z 26.5K followers, 14.8K engagements
"@ConvexValue thank you sir"
X Link 2023-07-09T02:13Z 12.9K followers, [---] engagements
"One of the most influential sections of a book I have ever read. Generally if I really like sections of a book I just rip them out and keep them"
X Link 2023-07-10T05:01Z 13.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@SebastinPatron3 Exactly"
X Link 2023-07-10T05:21Z 66.5K followers, [---] engagements
"Adaptability is everything"
X Link 2023-07-10T16:04Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"R:R of bonds moving into CPI:"
X Link 2023-07-11T02:22Z 13K followers, [----] engagements
"@ExPostGigaChad lol no"
X Link 2023-07-11T02:56Z 28K followers, [---] engagements
"Really helpful insight into why credit risk isn't higher:"
X Link 2023-07-11T17:59Z 23K followers, [----] engagements
"@ItsMeCryptality Yes You can go on the substack and see the previous macro reports. But I will be writing another soon 🤝"
X Link 2023-07-26T00:31Z 53.3K followers, [--] engagements
"Core CPI and Core PCE YoY"
X Link 2023-07-27T16:57Z 28K followers, [----] engagements
"@CACryptoNerd wrong lol"
X Link 2023-07-27T17:08Z 12.9K followers, [--] engagements
"Core CPI with prints coming out above or below expectations"
X Link 2023-07-30T13:06Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Will update this chart and also run PCE in the next article"
X Link 2023-08-01T16:23Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Real interest rates unlike nominal rates factor in inflation to give a clearer picture of the cost of borrowing. High real interest rates imply higher borrowing costs which could deter individuals and businesses from taking out loans thereby reducing liquidity in the market"
X Link 2023-08-01T16:23Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"GDP and Components: Nominal GDP: Personal Consumption Expenditures: Gross Private Domestic Investment: Watch the following: Industrial Production Retail and Wholesale Sector Manufacturing and Trade Inventories Housing and Real Estate. Net Exports of Goods and Government consumption expenditures and gross investment and"
X Link 2023-08-01T23:45Z 13.4K followers, [----] engagements
"10 year yield and core CPI above / below expectations (green/red)"
X Link 2023-08-02T00:07Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Price moves because there isnt liquidity"
X Link 2023-08-03T16:20Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@Capital_Hungry We are likely to have a little more upside in US bonds via positioning unwind after the NFP print Friday. Plus CL is so elevated here. Short term bounce before flipping short bonds and long the dollar again. I do expect a cpi print to eventually come in hot. Not sure about"
X Link 2023-08-07T17:55Z 11.8K followers, [--] engagements
"The macro report I wrote lays out a lot for the CPI print tomorrow. I am still not bullish bonds given how the forward curve is pricing cuts and how inflation swaps are pricing the SPEED of a deceleration in inflation"
X Link 2023-08-10T01:11Z 13K followers, [----] engagements
""If you just strip out x component of CPI we are actually in deflation" 🤦🏻♂🤡 Yeah here let me strip out that same component of consumption in your life. Oh you still want to have a place to live in and food to eat Got it got it 🤦🏻♂😂"
X Link 2023-08-10T15:55Z 13K followers, [----] engagements
"This is still the trade rn imo and connected to the calls logic"
X Link 2023-08-10T19:29Z 13K followers, [----] engagements
""Paul Krugman the man whose intellect saved countless citizens from economic challenges. His grasp of the economic system is unparalleled and exceptionally accurate" - said no one ever 😵💫😵💫😵💫😵💫😵💫😵💫"
X Link 2023-08-10T21:48Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@MBHTM I honestly dont think those things are a big deal. Theres papers on it. Cpi is a great metric for what it sets out to accomplish imo"
X Link 2023-08-11T15:14Z 28K followers, [--] engagements
"We have some growth data coming out this week with retail sales housing and IP but any spikes are likely to be sold. Inflation just hasnt decelerated enough and recession into end of year doesnt appear likely. Consensus still expects a recession into end of year tho"
X Link 2023-08-14T19:17Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"What do you think happens when we get more long end issuance no recession q1 [----] cuts priced out and potentially a CPI print above expectations Bonds = 🤮"
X Link 2023-08-14T19:17Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"My view on bonds has been clear from the macro report and recent spaces. In sum we had the NFP print causing position to squeeze marginally and then CPI served as a catalyst for more downward price action in confluence with the R:R. Retail sales continuing to mess with bulls"
X Link 2023-08-15T19:10Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"You know how everyone talks about the low-interest rates they locked in their mortgages at Yeah all the student loans are locked in at those same low rates"
X Link 2023-08-16T04:05Z 13K followers, [--] engagements
"These data prints just keep providing liquidity for big players to sell"
X Link 2023-08-17T01:13Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Gold short vibes as bonds keep selling off lol"
X Link 2023-08-17T01:30Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"I have a prediction about the new developments on Twitter Elon is going to disable the ability to block accounts except from DMs. This has two direct results: 1) more bots can spam and scam comments thereby bringing down the quality. 2) The only way to keep bots or those you dont want from commenting is by taking your account private (or disabling comments. For example Bill Gates account. We all know why comments are disabled 🤫). This results in less overall interaction. The net result is less interaction due to accounts going private and a decrease in quality for the accounts that dont go"
X Link 2023-08-19T22:14Z 13K followers, 12.8K engagements
"Me preparing for the week in front of the mirror 😂"
X Link 2023-08-20T20:10Z 13K followers, [----] engagements
"When people say to me I know nothing about markets or macro where do I start I always say the same thing 👇 Read: The Long Good Buy The Alchemy of Finance The Black Swan The DAO of Capital Full book thread here:"
X Link 2023-08-21T17:23Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@TheMarketDog Only the most interesting topics lol"
X Link 2023-08-23T17:50Z 13.2K followers, [---] engagements
"I love how everyone tries to be the next Michael Burry and call CLOs the next big short. Then CLOs just absolutely destroy lol Blue: CLO ETF Orange: High Yield ETF Turquoise: Long Duration Risk-Free ETF"
X Link 2023-08-25T18:20Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"you can buy credit default swaps i dont see a problem with leveraging loans inherently. depends on the purpose of the leverage and how it's contributing to things. And if liquidity and growth are expanding leverage is only natural in order to maintain a competitive advantage"
X Link 2023-08-25T18:45Z 12.9K followers, [--] engagements
"Cool do it we will do a twitter spaces sharing our findings. Aggregate all FED communications going back through all time categorize it and put it in a folder. We will upload it to ChatGPT with some other data from Bloomberg and have ChatGPT run some analysis on it. Shoot me an email with it capitalflowsresearch@gmail.com Keep slaying sir"
X Link 2023-08-25T19:49Z 12.9K followers, [---] engagements
"Really excellent podcast with @prometheusmacro Their work is truly exceptional Would encourage everyone to check it out 🤝 This week @kevinmuir has an in depth conversation with @menon_aahan Co-Founder of @prometheusmacro about their macro framework liquidity and that the bond market may still have some gas left in the tank. This week @kevinmuir has an in depth conversation with @menon_aahan Co-Founder of @prometheusmacro about their macro framework liquidity and that the bond market may still have some gas left in the tank"
X Link 2023-08-26T00:42Z 28K followers, [----] engagements
"Kinda funny I read all of this stuff about ML optimizing portfolios in really great ways but then we just started adding options to etfs. Like the average investor still doesnt have a beta management process much less specifically tailored strategies. ML monetization for broad participants is still so far away"
X Link 2023-08-27T04:15Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@corleone1289 See fx primers in substack It depends because it depends on the monetary policy or credit risk differential depending on inflation or deflation occurring"
X Link 2023-08-27T14:55Z 12.9K followers, [--] engagements
"The macro report has been dropped 🔥 Updated views on growth inflation liquidity and its impact on bonds. Run it 🫡"
X Link 2023-08-28T12:58Z 12.9K followers, 72.1K engagements
"Primers for understanding and trading: - FX: - S&P500: - The bond market: - Risk on Risk off Regimes: - Educational Articles:"
X Link 2023-08-28T16:26Z 13K followers, [----] engagements
"The idea of an imminent recession = wrong way to frame the distribution of possible scenarios in the future. If there was an imminent recession taking place right now bonds wouldnt be dumping. 👇🏻🤝"
X Link 2023-08-28T17:49Z 13K followers, [--] engagements
"Everyone super focused on JOLTS Lets watch bond price action through GDP personal income and NFP before getting to overexcited about a regime shift. Also people talking about how JOLTS data was manipulated on the upside but now that its moving down its right 🤦🏻♂cmon"
X Link 2023-08-29T21:55Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements
"People who got long bonds on the JOLTS print 😵💫"
X Link 2023-08-29T22:01Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@ExPostGigaChad plural Oh wow you must be really screwed then a smarter person would put it all in BTC"
X Link 2023-08-29T22:29Z 28K followers, [---] engagements
"Video breakdown of how I'm thinking about the macro right now as we move into the data prints this week. Some key charts as well Like/retweet if you want me to do more of these 🤝"
X Link 2023-08-30T04:53Z 13K followers, 111.4K engagements
"Just taking some time to read 🤝"
X Link 2023-08-30T16:15Z 28.1K followers, [----] engagements
"When delinquencies come they will suck dollars out do the system and cause disinflation. We just arent there yet. Net corporate interest expense remains muted by interest income. The path for gross expense looks higher. Cycle still cycles. @BobEUnlimited https://t.co/aWHIw4yk2z Net corporate interest expense remains muted by interest income. The path for gross expense looks higher. Cycle still cycles. @BobEUnlimited https://t.co/aWHIw4yk2z"
X Link 2023-08-31T00:50Z 28.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Doing my part to boost $AAPL earnings Interesting how all their employees each try to be so unique 🤨"
X Link 2023-08-31T01:59Z 13.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Absolutely 🔥 thread with key points to know in the next liquidity crunch"
X Link 2023-09-03T15:37Z 13K followers, [----] engagements
"Ill be releasing a video and article soon updating views on bonds gold $BTC inflation and some of the data revisions we have seen. Here is a key chart though. Notice how materials are rallying against real estate right now This exemplifies the tension we are seeing with cyclical sectors and inflation risk. Chart is materials equity sector / real estate sector with [--] year yield overlaid"
X Link 2023-09-04T23:23Z 13K followers, [----] engagements
"Video breakdown covering views on equities bonds and how to think about price action moving into the week:"
X Link 2023-09-05T05:42Z 13K followers, 11.1K engagements
"duration position continues to be connected to fx positioning. YC bear steepening + bonds down + DXY up"
X Link 2023-09-05T15:47Z 13K followers, [----] engagements
"Gold continues to move in lockstep with bonds. Silver as well. Copper and oil diverging = key signal here. Inflation remains the dominant impulse. NOT imminent recession"
X Link 2023-09-05T15:51Z 13K followers, [----] engagements
"@Mrchristophegen Bonds moving down causes credit risk to tighten Would you mind telling the market that cause its not getting the message rn"
X Link 2023-09-06T00:02Z 13K followers, [--] engagements
"Connect your data to price action or else your data predictions literally dont matter"
X Link 2023-09-06T16:21Z 13K followers, [----] engagements
"@GRomePow Overlay new home sales 🤝"
X Link 2023-09-06T21:55Z 13K followers, [--] engagements
"@GRomePow All Im saying is that it makes sense why existing home sales are down because people dont want to sell at low mortgages until their incomes are in danger. New home sales have been accelerant for several months now which is part of the reason gdp nowcasts are very positive"
X Link 2023-09-06T21:58Z 12.9K followers, [--] engagements
"@tommyxau Being a musician doesnt change facts @907Britt is a musician too @Globalflows I'm a musician who agrees. I turn them down. They don't pay enough and usually expect you to endure wretched conditions for the "privilege" of being on their poster. I'd rather play the local brewpub thanks. The only music festivals that don't suck are the picking parties. @Globalflows I'm a musician who agrees. I turn them down. They don't pay enough and usually expect you to endure wretched conditions for the "privilege" of being on their poster. I'd rather play the local brewpub thanks. The only music"
X Link 2023-09-06T22:00Z 28K followers, [--] engagements
"Just because of all the bearish news Im thinking of buying calls on $NVDA Sounds like some bears needs to be squeezed Whos right Dont care"
X Link 2023-09-06T23:45Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Where are the JOLTS and NFP bros Short bonds has been the trade since the beginning of July. Don't worry we will flip long for the recession trade when it comes. It only takes a couple of clicks. @prometheusmacro 🤝"
X Link 2023-09-08T18:22Z 28K followers, [----] engagements
"Thanks So it just depends on the nature of the recession and how elevated inflation remains. So long term I expect gold to diverge more and more from bonds in its performance. Gold is not a great hedge for liquidation tho unless your trading it against something else. Btw side note werent you the one asking for the videos to be on YouTube cause of the playback speed I believe Twitter allows change of play back speed now. Was just checking "
X Link 2023-09-08T19:00Z 13K followers, [--] engagements
"Im continuing to watch for a bear steepener. Short end seems pretty set for September but UB/TLT could keep moving down. Some premia in November FF for the potential hike. CPI is likely to set the positioning for November contract as we move into FOMC next week"
X Link 2023-09-11T14:51Z 13K followers, [----] engagements
"But real wages have been accelerating. Isn't it clear by now that credit card data isn't this magic signal"
X Link 2023-09-11T15:31Z 13K followers, [----] engagements
"Not really First it will show it gdp soon From what PCE is positive Interest in cc has risen So what That goes back to my point about people paying it off + its not the major point of leverage for the consumer Savings Not really. The savings rate has gone down but the consumer is a net beneficiary of the rate hikes. Savings rate might be down but stock of savings isnt necessarily. People overlay these charts of credit card spending and the savings rate. Its chart porn and an inaccurate comparison. You can compare a savings rate with a National amount which would be clear if you backtedted it"
X Link 2023-09-11T17:18Z 13K followers, [--] engagements
"CPI breakdown correlations to watch and economic data. Key update for bond views and positioning moving into FOMC next week"
X Link 2023-09-13T17:15Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@TraderChipmunk Good Will Hunting with Matt Damon Its a class Incredible movie"
X Link 2023-09-14T03:49Z 13K followers, [--] engagements
"A friendly reminder that P&L is denominated in the price not the economic data"
X Link 2023-09-14T16:04Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Bonds continue selling off on the long end causing the yield curve to steepen. Initial claims came in below expectations AGAIN"
X Link 2023-09-14T16:04Z 12.9K followers, [--] engagements
"Me collecting option premia from people who keep telling me the market should be doing xyz"
X Link 2023-09-14T16:09Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@profplum99 Yeah I guess thats a tough one. Do you think overall core cpi or nominal gdp would fall or have less upward force if 200bps of cuts occurred Or do you not see a causal connection between the two"
X Link 2023-09-14T22:05Z 28.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Hey everyone Going to have a Twitter spaces with @Namzes_G @MythicMkt and several other accounts tomorrow at market close. Be there 🤝🔥"
X Link 2023-09-14T22:22Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@Namzes_G Key thing im watching is implied vol of the higher weighting of the index. Cause VIX being down needs to be taken in the context of the IV of the fangs. From a macro perspetive tho if we get bear steepening with IV spiking on the bigger names = ES downside"
X Link 2023-09-14T23:53Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Twitter spaces at market close today with @Namzes_G @alchemy_invest and @MythicMkt"
X Link 2023-09-15T16:20Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"So I have this goal to never make a PowerPoint presentation. So far Im on track 😎"
X Link 2023-09-15T16:54Z 13K followers, [----] engagements
"Economic Data Modeling in Chat GPT: There are some very simple things you can do with economic data in ChatGPT. Let's use CPI as an example 👇"
X Link 2023-09-16T19:22Z 12.9K followers, [--] engagements
"We can go to the FRED database and pull YoY core CPI data:"
X Link 2023-09-16T19:22Z 11.8K followers, [--] engagements
"Then have it map the MoM change in the YoY numbers. You can look the outright number or use some type of rolling [--] month average"
X Link 2023-09-16T19:22Z 12.9K followers, [--] engagements
"Then have it extrapolate out scenarios based on a distribution of SPEED in MoM change. Simply put where would YoY CPI be if we decelerate at x speed"
X Link 2023-09-16T19:22Z 12.9K followers, [--] engagements
"Regional banks are toast"
X Link 2023-09-18T19:01Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"yeah for sure tbh the risk management and these types of things is where you make all the money. all the macro views are what people focus on but its really down to risk and execution. i know traders who literally know nothing about macro and they are just good at risk management. they slay"
X Link 2023-09-19T15:32Z 13K followers, [--] engagements
"@trader1sz Bearish CL coming 😈"
X Link 2023-09-19T20:33Z 11.8K followers, [---] engagements
"Just seems like theres been so much of a divergence of BTC from these macro flows in the short term that I wouldnt be using BTC as an expression of views here until it begins showing a higher sensitivity to the short term macro catalysts. Just me view tho. You might see something I dont 🤝"
X Link 2023-09-19T23:48Z 12.9K followers, [---] engagements
"They tend to look at core inflation Powell says For some reason people keep ignoring this as they strip out the portions of CPI they dont like. Forward curve still going to be repriced. Ive laid out my views on bonds in the macro reports. See link in bio 🤝"
X Link 2023-09-20T19:02Z 13K followers, [----] engagements
"@BobPi281836 or its already pricing it in :)"
X Link 2023-09-21T02:26Z 11.9K followers, [--] engagements
"Peak Performance Tweet: Ive done a couple articles and tweets on peak performance. Thought Id share a couple new thoughts. Ive been spending a lot more time dialing in my diet to match my workout routine. Had a good friend whos a professional athlete help me with this. Been really helpful matching the diet with the specific type of workout and time of day. I think this is massively underestimated. This is key for mental focus because most people go from a hard workout to food coma and always feel tired. You want to align your diet and workouts so you can have more mental focus not less. Been"
X Link 2023-09-22T16:34Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements
"90% of people in the industry haven't heard of this guy because he tries to keep his work and influence behind the scenes 👇"
X Link 2023-09-22T18:10Z 13K followers, [----] engagements
"Divesh Makan manages the wealth of many of the top billionaires in the world"
X Link 2023-09-22T18:10Z 11.5K followers, [---] engagements
"Had a great top-down macro/bottom-up equity convo with @alchemy_invest Main Topics: - Top Down Macro View on interest rates and growth - Bearsteepener and its impact on equities - Bottom-up sector view with lead/lag of beta - Individual stock analysis: $CRWD $NVDA $DG"
X Link 2023-09-24T21:02Z 11.4K followers, 20.6K engagements
"$TLT just keeps falling All the views and research were laid out 👇🏻🔥"
X Link 2023-09-25T14:45Z 12.9K followers, [--] engagements
"The IPO market is sending clear signals about risk on/risk off flows right now. @alchemy_invest and I did a breakdown of it"
X Link 2023-09-26T21:46Z 11.4K followers, [--] engagements
"This type of price action is directly connected to the analysis in the macro report:"
X Link 2023-09-26T21:46Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Bear steepening + overextended valuation in SPX + TLT down + dollar up = downward pressure on SPX and broad asset markets"
X Link 2023-09-26T21:46Z 13K followers, [---] engagements
"Less downside in bonds doesnt = upside. We could just be in a range for a while if inflation doesnt reaccelerate. If inflation actually does accelerate = 💣"
X Link 2023-09-27T19:37Z 28K followers, [----] engagements
"@corleone1289 @KobeissiLetter Not really how Id characterize the situation but Im always happy to discuss ideas on Twitter spaces"
X Link 2023-09-28T02:55Z 12.9K followers, [---] engagements
"Twitter spaces tomorrow at market close. Topics that will be covered: - Short Bonds Still - IPO Market and secular compounders - How to place stops Difference between time stop and price stop. - Constraints of managing capital in the industry Guests: @MythicMkt @alchemy_invest @Globalflows"
X Link 2023-09-29T01:29Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Macro report = in pinned tweet When the time comes to buy TLT i will publish it there. For now TLT isnt bullish"
X Link 2023-09-29T20:56Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Convince me of the bear case without using credit card data 🦗🦗🦗🦗 🤦🏻♂😂"
X Link 2023-09-30T01:11Z 11.4K followers, 16.8K engagements
"New standard: If the CIA is hiring people for it you should probably care about it 👇🏻"
X Link 2023-09-30T02:11Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Equity and bond views have been updated See most recent article"
X Link 2023-10-02T15:24Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"CIOs when they find out PMs covered their gold and bond shorts to early 👇🏻"
X Link 2023-10-02T16:18Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@lostgencapital unlikely rn rates are moving up but there is no dollar shortage There is a difference between dollar shortage due to liquidity crisis and monetary policy tightening"
X Link 2023-10-03T03:28Z 28K followers, [----] engagements
"If youre going to say recession please set a timeframe for the view so we can have a constructive conversation. I dont think we have a recession in Q4 of this year. At the moment I think the probability of recession is low for Q1 [----]. Maybe its the summer or H2 of [----] to early to tell. The preconditions are there. The question is the timing of the actualization. Inflation remains the dominant impulse in markets. I think we will see this impulse weaken even more in Q4 but its still the main driver right now"
X Link 2023-10-04T13:08Z 12.9K followers, 14.7K engagements
"Thanks 🙏 Yeah so the YC inversion is interesting. A lot connected with how cuts are priced which is dependent on growth. So I think its more coincident for contracting liquidity (which could potentiate a recession) as opposed to a predictor. Its about the WHY behind it might be a predictor or not"
X Link 2023-10-04T13:29Z 12.9K followers, [--] engagements
"@0xTroyTrades The type of steepening matters a lot. Those previous cases were bull steepening. We are seeing a bear steepening rn. Very different"
X Link 2023-10-04T14:19Z 13K followers, [--] engagements
"Complete vol crush $SVOL from @SimplifyAsstMgt = been long. Great ETF for short vol plays"
X Link 2023-10-06T18:58Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@LouisPhdSB @concodanomics Yeah I dont really buy it And shorting vol is one of the greatest strategies in the world. Just not accept the tails. Long SPX is short vol"
X Link 2023-10-06T23:25Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Macro Thread: We continue to be in a regime where inflation is the dominant impulse but this impulse continues to decrease in its causal force across assets"
X Link 2023-10-07T00:48Z 27.6K followers, 12.8K engagements
"There is a key tension taking place that is being ignored. Interest rate hikes caused the investment and cyclical sectors of the economy to decelerate in 2022:"
X Link 2023-10-07T00:48Z 12.9K followers, [---] engagements
"However these cyclical sectors have reaccelerated in [----] which poses a question: Are the interest rate hikes enough"
X Link 2023-10-07T00:48Z 13K followers, [---] engagements
"USDJPY continues to move in lockstep with the USD side as bonds respond to payroll numbers"
X Link 2023-10-07T00:49Z 12.9K followers, [---] engagements
"As mentioned above with the cyclical tension this payrolls number is key for a possible rate hike. I wouldnt be betting on another rate hike though. The R:R isnt there"
X Link 2023-10-07T00:49Z 28K followers, [---] engagements
"The FED rate hikes first need to transmit into higher debt service burden and THEN drag on consumption for a long enough period of time to drag it down into negative territory. We arent there yet"
X Link 2023-10-07T00:49Z 28.1K followers, [---] engagements
"man if it were only that simple The underlying "issues" have to do with how capital is transmitted not necessarily interest rates (though interest rates are part of it). Why Nations Fail is a great book explaining this dynamic"
X Link 2023-10-07T02:56Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Probably not going to see a huge market impact but wouldnt be absurd to keep your eyes on JETS ETF"
X Link 2023-10-07T22:46Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Risk Management Primer Has Been Dropped 🔥 Guest Writer = @MythicMkt The guys at @MythicMkt spent time writing a primer on how to position size manage risk and measure expectancy. Really helpful stuff"
X Link 2023-10-10T14:16Z 28.1K followers, [----] engagements
"All the research primers = in the pinned article S&P500 Primer Bond Market Primer FX Primer Regime Modeling Primer Risk Management Primer"
X Link 2023-10-11T19:47Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"The move in equities has been directly connected to the bear steepener. Bear Steepener has been directly connected to duration issuance"
X Link 2023-10-11T20:40Z 11.9K followers, 12.8K engagements
"I wouldnt frame it that way The reason a pronounced trend down in interest rates would occur is likely because of a negative growth impulse which would imply negative impact on earnings. However the Fed isnt going to cut until they are constrained too. So its not like interest rates will start trending back down and that will boost the liquidity function of equities. The reason why interest rates would trend down is because earnings revisions are taking place and the negative growth impulse has outweighed the inflation impulse"
X Link 2023-10-11T21:35Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@tolstoybb Wait seriously Hmmmmm Dont like the bars in Salt Lake City have some restriction on how many drinks you can have Could be totally off but Ive heard that"
X Link 2023-10-11T23:15Z 13K followers, 13.3K engagements
"And now we have officially begun duration issuance for Q4. UB (or TLT as proxy) spiked down on the [--] year auction several mins ago. This dragged down ES as well since bear steepener continues to drive price action in equities"
X Link 2023-10-12T17:15Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Get ready to short uranium 😏"
X Link 2023-10-12T17:21Z 13K followers, [----] engagements
"Lets see if we can ruffle some feathers 😏 Short CCJ view"
X Link 2023-10-12T17:36Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Gold Trade and Updated Observation on geopolitical risk premia No need to take weekend risk"
X Link 2023-10-13T18:36Z 13K followers, [----] engagements
"Random question for people: If we took all the participants in markets who are very active what is the breakdown of the language they speak/read For example what people group in markets can't read/speak English but is a major participant in markets What language do they speak Thanks"
X Link 2023-10-13T20:23Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@W98AB headcount trading over 10k USD (assume we adjust for exchange rate)"
X Link 2023-10-13T20:51Z 13K followers, [--] engagements
"Week Ahead Topics: - Macro Set-Up for this week - Geopolitical Risk premia - Is the 10s03m YC saying imminent risk-off event"
X Link 2023-10-16T07:14Z 12.9K followers, 11.7K engagements
"Vol crush ✊🏻 $VIX"
X Link 2023-10-16T14:19Z 11.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Everything I've learned about macro has come from @RayDalio Tiktoks Not sure why I would read or watch anything else"
X Link 2023-10-18T19:07Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"So I think the 20s are going to provide less of a signal than the 10s and 30s but in general we continue to see the market only make minimal moves down on auctions indicating that it has already priced in a lot of the duration issuance. The move in the 2s yesterday was primarily the March ZQ contract and 2024H2 [----] contracts repricing marginally. Fed speeches keep holding marginal probability of hikes on the table which means cuts in Q1 are likely off the table thereby implying the zq March contract needs to reprice and then the H2 contracts need to price the middle of the distribution by"
X Link 2023-10-18T21:01Z 29K followers, [----] engagements
"So my good friend whos a very down to earth blue collar worker calls me and I guess he came across mihaly csikszentmihalyis ideas on flow. He reads the definition to me: 👇🏻 flow is a state in which people are so involved in an activity that nothing else seems to matter; the experience is so enjoyable that people will continue to do it even at great cost for the sheer sake of doing it. And my friend says so its a called getting a job 😂 I mean yeah basically lol"
X Link 2023-10-19T15:25Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Inflation expectations ETF making new highs"
X Link 2023-10-19T16:35Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"So Im curious do you have debt in excess of your annual income (Exclude mortgage) For example student loans outstanding credit card balance (that isnt paid off monthly) car loan personal loan etc"
X Link 2023-10-20T01:05Z 13K followers, [----] engagements
"@Bobby_Cryptorod 😂😂😂 Mad respect man Where are you running it"
X Link 2023-10-20T01:11Z 12.9K followers, [--] engagements
"@agnostoxxx Insane to me that people still think stocks will melt up once yields go down why do you think yields are going down buddy"
X Link 2023-10-20T18:00Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Someone just told me the odds aren't in my favor for my future plans. Love being underestimated"
X Link 2023-10-21T16:59Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@Amabilis1 @amlivemon Oh i mean its def our job to categorize something being right or wrong lol. just to have a balanced perspective taking into account all good and bad. but for sure i hear where youre coming from"
X Link 2023-10-22T01:32Z 13K followers, [--] engagements
"The process of reading thinking and writing is what trains your brain to have a refined ability to interpret reality. It might seem simple and straight forward but generally people hate writing papers cause it was their least favorite thing to do in school"
X Link 2023-10-22T02:28Z 11.3K followers, [---] engagements
"5) Most books are complete trash. When I look through the amazon best sellers list its a bunch of dumped down ideas at an 8th grade reading level. It is totally fine if youre at this level (all of us were once) but to achieve higher level thinking you need to progress"
X Link 2023-10-22T02:28Z 11.3K followers, [---] engagements
"Flying to Miami today but should have the macro report published by tonight. Suggestions for Miami 😎"
X Link 2023-10-23T15:44Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"What a cool survey"
X Link 2023-10-24T16:53Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"People taking bets long Wheat"
X Link 2023-10-24T17:04Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Watch for accelerating implied volatility with a break above 600:"
X Link 2023-10-24T17:04Z 11.5K followers, [---] engagements
"Risk on/Risk off Regimes: How to understand them and model them There is a lot of discussion out there as to if we are still in a bear market or have entered a new bull market. What complicates things further is everyone seems to have a different definition of a bull or bear market that they assert is the correct definition as if something could even be possible. Do you know why financial advisors and media spokespeople use this Its because its a way to skirt the actual issue. Its pure marketing and misdirection. I hear people say the official definition of exiting a bear market is some"
X Link 2023-10-25T14:13Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@SandLot84 Live view of bitboy in the real world lol"
X Link 2023-10-25T14:42Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@momchev12 Why do you think this is Simply due to external pressure keeping inflation high while output falls"
X Link 2023-10-26T11:54Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements
"If you work in any capacity in financial services this interview shows why your research budget is one of your most important things. The Arkk team does thousands of hours of research to come up with wrong conclusions. Its honestly pretty astonishing. A truly good research analyst is really valuable"
X Link 2023-10-26T13:37Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@5RCapital @tradingview I think that type of mindset is wrong there are no rules that says silliness is wrong we dont deserve any specific outcome to happen or not happen"
X Link 2023-10-26T17:39Z 11.4K followers, [--] engagements
"FOMC isn't the main event this week"
X Link 2023-10-30T01:00Z 11.5K followers, 12.8K engagements
"The BoJ surprise and being long the Yen"
X Link 2023-10-30T15:08Z 11.5K followers, 25.7K engagements
"As we move into a period of time where central banks pause growth differentials will begin to exert their force. Growth differentials between the US and UK / US and Eurozone = will begin to exert itself in nominal rate differentials or potentially XCCY depending on degree of credit risk. Regime shifts are when the rules of the game change which is why they overlap with nonlinear moves"
X Link 2023-11-02T17:51Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@0xXSQT217 well yeah its because its such a small part of personal consumption expenditures its extrapolating a single data point to a larger impact than it has"
X Link 2023-11-02T18:02Z 13.9K followers, [--] engagements
"$NVDA bears been pretty quiet lately"
X Link 2023-11-02T18:18Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements
"We continue to be in a tension with the level and RoC in growth. real PCE continues to be positive:"
X Link 2023-11-02T18:31Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements
"The diffusion index needs to be viewed and held in tension with the LEVEL of data and how data is surprising expectations. Surprise index remains in positive territory"
X Link 2023-11-02T18:31Z 11.7K followers, [---] engagements
"Yes we are likely to see growth decelerate from its extreme in Q3. However recession isnt about IF but WHEN this begins to have enough impact on price action to run recessionary trades. We are late cycle but its still early to make recession bets. Hense:"
X Link 2023-11-02T18:31Z 11.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@DisruptorStocks @Tradewrite @Neil_X10 @Rahkus1 @ParrotCapital @timtamothee @DataDependant @TRILLIONCAP @THE_REAL_VICTOR @RazorSharpDNA @AnalyzingAI @ftr_investors @EugeneNg_VCap @j77324 @Ghost_of_Phi @FinPhilosopher @Beachdudeca 🙏🤝 The feeling is mutual"
X Link 2023-11-03T14:31Z 11.5K followers, [---] engagements
"So we are in a recession right now This is blatantly dismissing the attribution analysis for stocks and bonds. Recession trade is stocks down and bonds up with Vix and credit spreads blowing out. Bonds up due to normalization of duration supply doesnt = recession"
X Link 2023-11-03T16:45Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Equity and Bond Views:"
X Link 2023-11-06T01:52Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"VVIX up while ES is green = 🚨"
X Link 2023-11-06T17:12Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Term Premia:"
X Link 2023-11-07T15:48Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Jolts bros are back. When the data is really high it is "bad data" and then when its really low it "predicted it all along" I honestly don't care which one it is. I just watch how the market increases or decreases sensitivity to it in price action"
X Link 2023-11-07T16:21Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"This is "utterly beyond" Ken Griffin 😏"
X Link 2023-11-07T16:26Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@SOCryptoKapital Well the initial geopolitical risk premia is fading. Government isnt really printing a ton of money for a war rn net liquidity impulse is still negative. its about aggregating all the liquidity impulses and netting them out"
X Link 2023-11-08T15:31Z 11.6K followers, [--] engagements
"Great explanation Growth normalizing for demand side and issuance normalizing for supply side seem to create an environment for mean reversion into beginning of q1. Momentum still neutral at best for short term and long term look backs. Yield curve steepening helps with stabilizing but not bid until bull steepener. We had bear steepener and then bull flattener (over past two weeks. Still waiting. 🤝"
X Link 2023-11-10T01:41Z 11.8K followers, 10.6K engagements
"Yield Curve Tensions and Macro Views"
X Link 2023-11-12T23:12Z 22.9K followers, [----] engagements
"I don't think that we are going to get back down to 2% inflation and then the Fed will just cut 300bps. Very unlikely unless there is a constraint due to credit risk"
X Link 2023-11-15T16:47Z 13K followers, [----] engagements
"@canviobasic Uhhhh no boj actions arent enough to cause the US yield curve to steepen like that. Primarily duration supply from treasury"
X Link 2023-11-15T17:46Z 11.8K followers, [---] engagements
"It depends on how youre calculating that exactly Implied volatility yes because its being moved by real supply and demand of money. Stdv calculation is just a function of price so its attempting to extract a specific signal from price. So volatility is a specific calculation of price which doesnt give you a view into positioning. Its just about HOW you interpret that"
X Link 2023-11-18T17:06Z 12K followers, [--] engagements
Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing