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@GlennLuk Avatar @GlennLuk Glenn

Glenn posts on X about china, countries, elements, investment the most. They currently have XXXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.

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Social category influence countries #6850 finance XXXX% technology brands XXXX% travel destinations XXXX% stocks XXXX% automotive brands XXXX%

Social topic influence china #385, countries #1753, elements #832, investment 0.49%, governments #192, geely #97, infrastructure 0.37%, beijing #556, has been 0.37%, rates #1000

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @joequant @gonglei89 @bauhiniacapital @tonamiplayman @matthewswspence @brad_setser @teortaxestex @bradsetser @wrenevans217208 @hspekingpanda @zephyrz9 @tphuang @pseudoerasmus @thepoliecon @dawn2042 @stevehou0 @pretentiouswhat @jz281c @hongshenzhu @industrlpolicy

Top assets mentioned Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

Top Social Posts #

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"@Wije73381133 @lithos_graphein Imagine Hangzhou Hefei Wuhan Nanjing Shanghai Shenzhen Chengdu and Xian are all countries instead of cities. Now China has a bunch of specialized STEM expertise from many different countries to draw on. Dont know what the relevance of expertise of many countries here"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-17T02:59Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements

"This is true. China's rare earths supply can be replaced. But you can say the same thing about advanced chipmaking. Thus more relevant question is: Will the U.S. be able to secure rare earths processing capacity before China develops self-sufficiency in advanced node chips"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-04-24T14:45Z 26.6K followers, 151.6K engagements

"@yishan Between ethanol and biofuel its clear that these are just fit leaf check marks to meet poorly designed environmental mandates. Its actually easier to just synthesize clean fuel now but some people seem to go out of their way to avoid helping the environment"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-15T11:28Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements

"This illustrates just how much income U.S. MNCs are making in China enough to offset the bilateral trade deficit"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T13:43Z 26.6K followers, 1689 engagements

"More broadly I fundamentally disagree with this characterization of local governments being incentivized having free rein to do anything they wanted and "GDP at all costs" and hyperbolic descriptions of SOEs bearing unlimited financial losses"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-16T12:17Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements

"Here is the latest update on my analysis on the profitability of China's NEV sector. It updates for various 1H financial and volume updates by key carmakers like BYD Geely Xiaomi Xpeng and Leapmotor"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-09-30T18:02Z 26.5K followers, 15.7K engagements

"I hear over and over again how there are "100-150" Chinese EV firms and "only a handful are profitable". This is BS and highly misleading. The people who cite these figures can never seem to name even a fraction of these firms . . because they are mindless parrots who are unwilling or incapable of doing their own work to check out basic factual claims or provide highly relevant context"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-09-27T12:21Z 26.6K followers, 88.7K engagements

"@Wije73381133 @lithos_graphein Science includes engineering in this context. Science and engineer the shit out of things just doesnt roll off the tongue as well though"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-17T02:15Z 26.6K followers, XX engagements

"If it is later revealed to be true the latter would be akin to Japanese militarists sabotaging the efforts of civilian administrators to moderate imperial ambitions by assassinating dove-ish officials in the lead-up to WW2 (re: assassination of Prime Minister Inukai Tsuyoshi)"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-11T11:18Z 26.5K followers, 6624 engagements

"To boot this is the right solution for humanity. Nations competing to out-innovate each other instead of competing to out-bomb one another. That's how humanity moves forward"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-13T13:22Z 26.5K followers, 1605 engagements

"1. Funds would likely have been transferred out the normal way if the special layer of corporate governance to Nexperia NV had not not been put into effect ex post facto due to Entity Rules. X. There is no normal circumstance where companies are subject to nationalization/takeover due to "inappropriate inter-company fund transfers." That is extremely disproportionate action that only makes sense because of the geopolitical context"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-15T13:31Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements

"Addendum: This violently ends the short-lived fantasy that there was no linkage between the 9/29 BIS entity rule modification and the Nexperia takeover by explicitly linking the two"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T11:34Z 26.6K followers, 6997 engagements

"@zephyr_z9 Would really want to understand just how/whether BABA's investments in AI are what is driving market share gains in delivery - and whether Meituan's investment in LLMs was a belated realization of that"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-17T13:05Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements

"If they are unable to obtain a waiver they will have to then "design in" an alternative chip (e.g. from Broadcom) for their products (again often mature products) to be able to continue selling. Given the enhanced safety requirements of automotive/industrial/power the effort here will be similar to redesigning the product from scratch"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-15T13:14Z 26.6K followers, 1768 engagements

"This reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of China's administrative bureaucracy. The central gov't ultimately played the "disciplining" role for local governments. China's system of "checks and balances" is the central vs. local government dynamic"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-16T12:18Z 26.6K followers, 1181 engagements

"First the data: Very clear the changing mix of capital investment from shorter-lived factory machine type assets (business) to housing and infrastructure over the past XX years"
X Link @GlennLuk 2023-12-24T12:37Z 26.5K followers, 6025 engagements

"@gen3ralist China is the world's largest "importer" of iPhones from a company that is based in its direct geopolitical competitor"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-04T13:50Z 26.5K followers, XXX engagements

"Sacrilege. I remember being able to get from HKIA to my office in Cheung Kong Center walking either (i) indoors or (ii) under covered walkways. It's "hard" and "tiring" for other reasons but the sheer challenge of making a city work with that level of concentrated urban density in rugged mountainous topography doesn't work without intense focus on the pedestrian"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T17:09Z 26.5K followers, 3898 engagements

"Beijing has long understood that the fundamental source of its leverage here was "producer power" that centers on specialized manufacturing equipment process knowledge and human capital"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-12T15:53Z 26.5K followers, 1959 engagements

"High likelihood of finding out soon that to secure domestic supply without access to the latest Chinese IP know-how and specialized equipment we are going to have to "brute force" it i.e. starting from scratch similar to where China was XX years ago"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T15:49Z 26.6K followers, 3389 engagements

"Now the narrative has completely flipped to a narrative where China is now simultaenously and pro-actively (i) restricting supply of critical materials and (ii) rejecting imports of American-derived high-tech which had been seen as key chokepoints"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-12T15:51Z 26.5K followers, 1578 engagements

"No. The reason why it has a monopoly today is because China has: (i) made significant technology and process advances that effectively isolate/mitigate the effects of the environmental damage concentrated in the up/midstream mining and separation phases on society and (ii) invested in human capital / specialized manufacturing equipment and optimized steps in the downstream processing stages including deep integration with end-product manufacturing (e.g. permanent magnets which make up the bulk of use cases by economic value) Whether simply ignorance or worse inability to recognize e.g. by"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T15:28Z 26.6K followers, 49.1K engagements

"First notice from earlier the analysis/framework keeps changing. The writedowns figure is now $6.9T. LGFV loan loss estimates have ballooned from $1.5T to $2.8T. Mortgages have been replaced with "property-collateralized corporate""
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-16T11:26Z 26.6K followers, 1210 engagements

"The circularity here is making my head hurt. "The consensus is that it's exploiting its monopoly position but the deeper story is that its exporters are hurting badly so China has to go for broke" Source: Robin Brooks"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-15T12:43Z 26.6K followers, 18.6K engagements

"So excluded from the U.S. asset number is the amount of Fortune 1000 market cap that can be directly attributed to operating income made off selling to the China market. So characterizing the U.S. as having disproportionate leverage on this vector is inaccurate. Both countries will be hurt rather proportionately if escalation gets to this point"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T13:43Z 26.6K followers, 1245 engagements

"That was quick. Beijing responds within XX hours restricting exports of its chips fabricated in its China fabs. This is likely to draw in more countries (Germany Philippines Malysia UK) as its operations span the globe"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T11:47Z 26.6K followers, 9061 engagements

"@Wije73381133 @lithos_graphein Are you going to say because it is a bunch of little countries"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-17T03:01Z 26.6K followers, XX engagements

"@PAstynome Yep - clear rise in alternative non-regulated markets (crypto/bitcoin) and gambling (fanduel/draftkings)"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-13T11:43Z 26.6K followers, 3171 engagements

"There have been some other past threads on this but I now notice that Alex's posts have been deleted. Here is one from a year ago: Anyway I think Alex is making unreasonable outlier assumptions on one of the key support pillars for his hypothesis"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T13:43Z 26.6K followers, 2019 engagements

"2 American MNCs make more money off China than vice versa Alex brings up the difference in net asset balance ($2.5T for China $500B for the US) but I would argue that it's not asset values that matter but the lost income on those assets. The reality is that China makes a relatively paltry return on its US-exposed asset portfolio because it is mainly locked up in low-return USTs and equities while U.S. investment in China is locked into high-return FDI"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T13:43Z 26.6K followers, 1538 engagements

"Excellent reporting yet article has zero mention of the 9/29 BIS ruling which the Chinese response clearly mirrors. The real news here is the possibility of elements within the Trump administration whose direct objective is to sabotage the talks. Similar vibes to rogue arrest by lower-level underlings of the Huawei CFO in December 2018 that kicked off the tech war in the first place"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-11T03:32Z 26.5K followers, 63.1K engagements

"That is why the nature of the collateral is also important. The credit boom in China the last two decades has been underpinned by the formation of long-term assets like buildings highways bridges and railway that have very long useful lives. They are hard tangible assets which usually have fairly high asset recovery rates (especially if measured against debt with equity taking the brunt of the losses)"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-16T11:50Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements

"To beat China the U.S. needs to paradoxically stop focusing on beating China. And instead focus on being the best version of itself"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-15T20:48Z 26.6K followers, 369.4K engagements

"@zephyr_z9 So Google is aligned with Anthropic Who is MSFT aligned with if they are splitting from OpenAI"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-16T15:36Z 26.6K followers, 4925 engagements

"In another similar-sized tech/industrial sector NEVs I estimate the cumulative industrial subsidies since 2009 at $200B by Y/E 2025"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-17T11:20Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements

"@Marxistcham I dont think its any different from others. TSMC was notable for always keeping the latest gen technology at home and opening up plants outside Taiwan that are 2-4 generations behind. Audi did not use their most powerful engines for the China market"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-15T11:04Z 26.6K followers, XX engagements

"Bringing up ethane and high purity quartz is revealingly grasping at straws. Advanced SME was the trump card and it was played early. China is like Toby in The Office calling Michael who had bluffed and gone all-in on the first hand"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-12T10:59Z 26.5K followers, 11.4K engagements

"Google token update now 43T per day up 4x from just a few months ago"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-09T17:50Z 26.6K followers, 3557 engagements

"New growth drivers are other areas like tech/AI advanced manufacturing biotech healthcare etc. which not only benefit from freed-up workforce from the real estate sector but also the long-term structural shift to a more college-educated workforce"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-16T12:38Z 26.6K followers, 1948 engagements

"Corruption is bad but there are degrees. Its one thing to do it in real estate involving transfer of state/public assets (and natural rent-seeking elements); quite another for an Internet / tech company. Miles Kwok and Desmond Shum types involved in real estate was bad enough but imagine if they were involved in non-rent-seeking industries disaster from a societal perspective"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-12T13:48Z 26.5K followers, 42.5K engagements

"Companies that have wholly owned subsidiaries can typically appoint directors and indirectly executvies. The owners generally have unrestricted access to funds. Wingtech paid $3B+ in 2018 for that right"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-15T12:14Z 26.6K followers, 3338 engagements

"Note that Wuxi is a prosperous city in Jiangsu featuring some of the highest levels of quality of life in China. Safe bet the locals care about pollution. If the competitive advantage of this ultrapure dysprosium refinery were truly ability to tolerate pollution there are so many other places in the country in less prosperous sparsely populated areas that it could have been located. No the reason it was located there was clustering of relevant human capital and supply chain"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-13T11:56Z 26.5K followers, 6011 engagements

"The difference is even larger using capital stock estimates provided by the IMF (Model 2). IMF uses even more basic depreciation assumptions for its capital stock estimates assuming flat rates depending on the developmental category of an economy"
X Link @GlennLuk 2024-01-30T04:28Z 26.6K followers, 3125 engagements

"All while its principal antagonist continues to: (i) under-estimate China's ability to move forward and push through often-painful structural reforms (corruption real estate catching up in tech vulnerabilities) (ii) misdiagnose the key culprits of its eroding geopolitical advantage and (iii) prioritize talk over execution when it comes to known vulnerabilities in areas like rare earths gallium/germanium tungsten renewables etc"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-12T16:00Z 26.5K followers, 3783 engagements

"I'd once again encourage folks to listen to this podcast from @twittwoods who has been studying the development of China's rare earths industry and was really the first one to clue me into just how much investment has bene made to raise environmental standards especially since the mid-2010s"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T15:35Z 26.5K followers, 6623 engagements

"The "overinvestment" thesis carries a rather elitist conceit: that one billion Chinese people at this current standard of living (or below) don't deserve or should delay full development. You simply cannot move beyond this standard without significant gross capital formation i.e. meaning vast quantities of concrete steel energy and construction investment"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-09-29T10:13Z 26.5K followers, 115K engagements

"What I have an issue with is the subjective moral grandstanding in the first place vs. analyzing it from more objective strategic/geopolitical and economic analysis. China reached market dominance sectors like rare earths and renewables because it made a conscious choice to sustain invest in the relevant production factors to enable high-efficiency production including taking into account environmental costs over a long period of time"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T16:15Z 26.5K followers, 2509 engagements

""Measured in terms of primary energy" This was obvious when you saw coal XX PWh (total power demand in China is XX PWh). These figures include heat loss from combustion. It's like accounting for heat loss from fusion energy produced at source (the sun) for solar/wind power"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-09T11:00Z 26.5K followers, 21.5K engagements

"Massive solar deployments convert erstwhile barren land with minimal economic value into some of the most productive real estate in the country"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-16T00:53Z 26.6K followers, 15.2K engagements

"@benbawan This is going to cause major major headaches for their automotive and industrial customers that sell into the U.S. or markets potentially subject to the Entity List rules as they are no longer going to be able to purchase from Wingtech/Nexperia China without a waiver"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-15T13:07Z 26.6K followers, 1913 engagements

"@zephyr_z9 Crypto fell like 10-15% so wipeouts mean many folks were 85-90% leveraged"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-12T21:20Z 26.5K followers, 1663 engagements

"Major vibe shifts in Vietnam which is emerging as a serious winner out of the US-China trade war deftly straddling its geopolitical position to tremendous benefit for its 100M+ population. From @CNMNguyen"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-17T14:14Z 26.6K followers, 7260 engagements

"Chinese-made EVs have even higher market share in Thailand Indonesia and Brazil than China mainly driven by mass-market models. Teslas by far the largest non-Chinese EV sold in China are priced at a premium and not as affordable for middle class buyers in developing markets"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-08T11:42Z 26.6K followers, 25.9K engagements

"By my count there are now at least X profitable EV makers selling in China by the end of this year. BYD Tesla (China only) Li Auto Seres Leapmotor Chery Chang'an and Geely Auto. On top of this you have CATL and Huawei which extract economics at the highly profitable battery and tech/software segments of the value chain respectively. These count because if these firms did not exist as independent entities those economics would simply flow to other carmakers. Xpeng Xiaomi SAIC GWM are also either already profitable on their EV operations or close"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-09-27T12:21Z 26.6K followers, 14K engagements

"When half of inference tokens are being generated for erotica the rationale that every GPU that goes to China means one less for America will start to sound rather uhhhh flaccid"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T20:02Z 26.6K followers, 7907 engagements

"The cottage industry of people whose main objectives seems to be to underestimate or otherwise downplay China's real achievements are actually very harmful to the long-term strategic interests of the country. Better to over-estimate than under-"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-16T13:10Z 26.6K followers, 2603 engagements

"As an incumbent Geely also sells traditional ICE vehicles. Some have used this to exclude Geely as a "profitable EV maker". But EVs now make up 3/5ths of its sales. At this point it is more an EV than ICE company so it should count as one"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-09-27T12:21Z 26.6K followers, 11.8K engagements

"Second even high-level credit analysis breaks up recovery rate into two key components (NPL rate and asset recovery rate) because these are often more observable and thus easier to analyze. This is a much improved framework that can be sanity checked against outside numbers:"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-16T11:30Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements

"Ratio'ed in own feed"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-13T17:30Z 26.6K followers, 6676 engagements

"Critical components of chip capacity buildout like the physical datacenters wires networking and supporting power infrastructure (both onsite the transmission grid and upstream electricity generation) are all mature and SOTA in China and do not require subsidies"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-17T11:23Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements

"Note that I am by no means saying that China is on the side of the moral right here. Indeed I have been quite clear that the main driver of embracing a clean environment agenda isn't morals but quality of life and strategic imperatives"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T16:08Z 26.5K followers, 1836 engagements

"To characterize the primary reason for the takeover as "financial misconduct" ignoring that the the "financial misconduct" was directly linked to Wingtech's addition to the Entity List is highly misleading and disingenuous"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-15T12:14Z 26.6K followers, 2116 engagements

"The board is controlled by the controlling shareholder under normal circumstances and dividends/repatriation are perfunctory and non-controversial. The specific governance layer was added as a result Entity. If Entity existed back then Wingtech would have never agreed to send $3B to NXP to acquire the business. So this all goes back to Entity however much you want to use the fig leaf of legal language cover to obfuscate. It's certainly not going to convice Beijing"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-15T13:25Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements

"@Wije73381133 @lithos_graphein STEM expertise right"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-17T02:55Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements

"Bytedance daily token update 30T per day on its Volcano platform"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-16T11:14Z 26.6K followers, 1505 engagements

"1) Once we start projecting out that far we are now talking long-enough timeframes where the known population based on consensus demographic trends will be able to utilize (derive economic value out of) such infrastructure. If some areas become gradually depopulated many decades into the future you simply shut down the infrastructure but they will have already served their purpose (being used by millions of the existing population for decades). An empty train station in XX years is not an example of poor asset allocation today if it had been used intensively for the full extent of its"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-08T11:34Z 26.5K followers, XXX engagements

"The subsidies represent the totality of fiscal industrial policy support that central and local governments in China have poured into the NEV sector which is now profitable (and thus self-sustaining) on a go-forward basis"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-17T11:22Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements

"1) Interesting how many folks who were pikachuface.jpg shocked at the Chinese rare earths restrictions after having ignored the 9/29 BIS modifications framing them first as "escalatory" and later as an "overreach" . are now framing this or not framing it at all e.g. mostly ignoring it as if it should be perceived as nbd non-event. 2) Very high likelihood that China will reciprocate prior to APEC; including simply cancelling the planned Xi-Trump meeting. This was eminently foreseeable on the escalation pathway"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-13T17:14Z 26.6K followers, 49.4K engagements

"We don't need Chinese idioms to pierce the mystical veil. China's really not that hard to read on the trade/tech war: It laid out its position very clearly and directly in April and its reactions/responses have been highly predictable"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T16:49Z 26.6K followers, 28.7K engagements

"Addendum: People who cite high-purity quartz as a significant source of geopolitical leverage vis a vis rare earths must have failed chemistry. Purifying quartz is OoM less complex process vs. isolating all the various rare earth elements from ore"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T14:25Z 26.5K followers, 1745 engagements

"That XX% to me would be an absolute theoretical limit given how "Three Red Lines" clamped down on new asset formation (and associated malinvestment) how the LT nature of most LGFV assets need time to mature naturally and general rising income levels in the broad economy which support underlying usage/absorption of the assets sitting in LGFVs"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-16T12:48Z 26.6K followers, XXX engagements

"What other precedents / examples of companies in The Netherlands that were seized/nationalized solely on the basis of "improper transfers" and with this timetable To imply/say this is a normal everyday thing that would have happened without the geopolitical backdrop is disingenous / obfuscation"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-15T15:34Z 26.6K followers, 3124 engagements

"Another signal/indicator that Chinese fabs/foundries are gaining confidence in viability of domestic lithography solutions as replacements for the remaining (more mature) product lines ASML is allowed to sell to China"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-15T14:21Z 26.6K followers, 37.6K engagements

"This is compelling evidence that getting depreciation rates correct (and recognizing changing capital mix) has a major impact on capital stock TFP and the Solow growth accounting model"
X Link @GlennLuk 2024-01-30T04:28Z 26.6K followers, 8175 engagements

"To get to the same point the U.S. and its allies needs to move on from moral grandstanding and make a similar sustained effort investing in real things like human capital tech/IP and process development to catch up to China in these areas. In other words it's not about China; it's about looking inwards and asking ourselves why we have thus far been unsuccessful in making significant catch-up headway in these critical sectors"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T16:15Z 26.5K followers, 2412 engagements