@F2commonSense Avatar @F2commonSense F2 Common Sense

F2 Common Sense posts on X about ipo, $fnma, $fmcc, $30b the most. They currently have [--] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance 40% technology brands 2% exchanges 2% cryptocurrencies 2% countries 1% social networks 1% stocks 1%

Social topic influence ipo #640, $fnma 16%, $fmcc 16%, $30b #61, $200b 6%, guess 5%, f2 4%, $38b 4%, mortgage rate 4%, if you 3%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @holdenwalker99 @billackman @velvetandblue @donotlose @midas79 @secscottbessent @ruleoflawguy @pulte @midas79_ @howardlutnick @johncarey17 @potus @realdonaldtrump @mnuchindilutio1 @horsemancountry @ledzephyr @seaurchincevice @gsehotline @hollandstanley @riparianman88

Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@PoorCharlie The g-fees are structured to give a utility level 10% return on capital. Only way to cut g-fees in half is to also half the required capital (other than extreme gov overreach into mortgage mkt). Thats below the 2.5% statutory requirement which requires congress. Not realistic"
X Link 2026-02-09T23:43Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$FNMA $FMCC Explainer thread to debunk testimony at House Financial Svcs Cmttee here. 1st we know with mathematical certainty that Wall Street's Sept [----] meltdown was caused EXCLUSIVELY by private label mortgage bonds. Fannie & Freddie had NOTHING to do with it. 1/ https://t.co/lGdsMasPWt Explainer thread to debunk testimony at House Financial Svcs Cmttee here. 1st we know with mathematical certainty that Wall Street's Sept [----] meltdown was caused EXCLUSIVELY by private label mortgage bonds. Fannie & Freddie had NOTHING to do with it. 1/ https://t.co/lGdsMasPWt"
X Link 2026-02-11T20:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@HoldenWalker99 @BillAckman Also reverses unapproved stealth nationalization of F2 and reverts to original conservatorship terms If you were POTUS would you convert the SPS or deem them repaid Many argue Trump will convert while they themselves wouldnt. Id deem repaid very hard to justify conversion"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@HoldenWalker99 @midas79_ @velvetandblue @BillAckman I think 3-6% has been floated because it is the largest IPO that the market can absorb not so much mark to market -Lutnick. Current largest is Alibaba at $25B (trust China) Saudi Aramco had DELAYS and reduced mkt cap to get $26B. $500B mkt cap @ 6% gets $30B IPO largest ever"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@HoldenWalker99 @midas79_ @velvetandblue @BillAckman Heres a solid article about Saudi Aramcos IPO https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-saudi-aramco-ipo-breaks-records-but-falls-short-of-expectations/ https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-saudi-aramco-ipo-breaks-records-but-falls-short-of-expectations/"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:59Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@HoldenWalker99 @midas79_ @velvetandblue @BillAckman But I am team deem SPS repaid because I dont think they can justify SPS conversion. Too much risk for to little reward. Litigation doesnt end optics are terrible morally wrong contradicts Trump letter etc. And for what They really could end up with more $ deeming repaid"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@HoldenWalker99 @midas79_ @velvetandblue @BillAckman For a long while IPO proceeds were for F2 to hit regulatory capital and exit conservatorship. Its unclear now I did see one clip which implies it was a UST stake sale. Forgot where I put that. IMO raising capital makes more sense it greatly reduces conservator risk for new $"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:51Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@HoldenWalker99 @midas79_ @velvetandblue @BillAckman Youre right that a large 20.1% share float already exists if they deep SPS repaid. Float does not exist if they go scorched earth 99%. Middle ground more likely IMO SPS converted w/out LP (@ IPO price or mkt price) common would move toward $12 either upwards or downwards"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:58Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@HoldenWalker99 @midas79_ @velvetandblue @BillAckman $500B is a stretch. $30B in earnings seems fair $25.1B this year but housing picking up and $4B increased earnings from holding $200B more MBS @ current 2% spread. Major banks are [--] P/E F2 should eventually be just higher than banks but not immediately. $30B * [--] = $450B"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:21Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@HoldenWalker99 @midas79_ @velvetandblue @BillAckman IMO $400B combined is reasonable. Take $190B SPS $35B JPS $30B IPO youre left with $145B / 9B shares = $16 per share. Thats common matching JPS performance even with SPS conversion. Theres worse downside with LP or conversion price games. Thats my expected if converting"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@velvetandblue @HoldenWalker99 @midas79_ @BillAckman I understand that theory but that wont do much for UST 10y vs MBS spreads which is the admins stated metric. In fact Warsh is very critical of the Feds US bond and MBS buying. It seems he will drop rates but sell MBS and UST bonds potentially effecting the spread"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@velvetandblue @HoldenWalker99 @midas79_ @BillAckman I have not done much research into whether that would widen or narrow the spreads. It could be either depending on how much of each is sold and how quickly. I do think F2 retained MBS cap should be modified. It should scale with SOME number. I think 10% of MBS could make sense"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@HorsemanCountry @BillAckman @GSE_NewsToday @SecScottBessent https://x.com/gse_newstoday/status/2022327164486693232s=46&t=CdO8NDXM24oTS65gsw_K2w With the SOTU coming up it is the perfect time to release the [-----] sealed $FNMA & $FMCC conservatorship documents. No better way to show transparency and build trust than to expose the swamp. @realDonaldTrump @SecScottBessent @pulte https://x.com/gse_newstoday/status/2022327164486693232s=46&t=CdO8NDXM24oTS65gsw_K2w With the SOTU coming up it is the perfect time to release the [-----] sealed $FNMA & $FMCC conservatorship documents. No better way to"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@GSEHotline Agree his follow up tweets seem to shape the intent. Last time he tweeted similar message was just after Trump posted the $1T meme which resembled other memes that WSJ (I think) reported was given to Trump by Pulte. Follows the same pattern so less likely about SPS conv. risk"
X Link 2025-10-21T04:52Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@midas79_ @HoldenWalker99 @GerhardtMeyer1 @pulte IMO market read too much into the last warning. With this tweet a stronger case for causation with the valuation and timeline optimism can be seen. Market is breathing a sigh of relief @HoldenWalker99 @pulte Interesting that market reacted positively this time. I believed that last one was for $1T meme but market seemed more concerned about other meanings. This one was directly followed up with posts about valuations/timeline supporting causation. Market is reacting as if relieved @HoldenWalker99 @pulte Interesting that market reacted"
X Link 2025-10-21T20:03Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@MisterAccord [--]. SPS absolutely could be converted (unlikely IMO). If done IMO they likely use stated value of the SPS $190B. If market cap $500B ownership from SPS: 190/500=38% UST has warrants for 80% of the remaining: 100-38=62*80%=49.6% For a total of: 38%+49.6%=87.6% (almost 90%)"
X Link 2025-10-22T15:23Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@midas79_ @DoNotLose So youre using UST converting at a higher price than shares were trading with AIG to justify UST converting at a lower price than shares are trading with F2 That doesnt work the same. There would be lawsuits if a lower price was used"
X Link 2025-10-22T19:18Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@The_Jackal1997 @DoNotLose @midas79_ Based on current dividend restrictions that payout rate is unlikely. Could be modified though. Ackman shows his math on [--] P/E @ $30B earnings thats $450 hard for me to go much higher than that. Moelis said [--] P/E but that was [----] a time of lower valuations"
X Link 2025-10-22T20:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@midas79_ @rule_of_law_guy Also he does call out the LP of $220B and stated value of $120B although he didnt rerun scenarios [--] and [--] with full LP. Maybe that is because he believes using the full LP is unlikely as do I @HollandStanley UST could have amended the PSPAs to increase face value but chose instead to increase the liquidation preference. CBO uses 190B face value. Even more telling is the companies accounting go check page [--] of Fannie Maes most recent Q2 report. FHFA supervises these statements @HollandStanley UST could have amended the PSPAs to increase face value but chose instead"
X Link 2025-10-24T18:37Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@The_Jackal1997 @DoNotLose @compound248 Are you implying that you are pretending to own common shares"
X Link 2025-10-27T23:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@DoNotLose @TylerEHand And it is quite possible that after 10+ years of studying this issue you still do not fully understand it. Perhaps - mr wildly pessimistic pants and mr wildly over-confident pants"
X Link 2025-10-27T23:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@TylerEHand @DoNotLose Hedging JPS timeline risk w commons in [----] or several other times would have been a very smart play. Since then JPS are up 100% and common up 500% since capital retention disproportionately helps common. Same is true now but timeline risk seems way lower now"
X Link 2025-10-28T04:13Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@HoldenWalker99 @aerokinetic @DoNotLose @pulte @SecScottBessent So you agree the takings case would succeed I will wait [--] more years and help fund the litigation. And you understand the lawsuits so you know that taking damages would be the same amount that gov would make on conversion $190B*(1-.8)= $38B + interest absolutely worth it"
X Link 2025-10-28T20:03Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Very sad that @midas79_ will block you when he loses a debate and for making valid points like these. What is his goal on X Its ok to loose an argument $fnma $fmcc"
X Link 2025-10-29T16:15Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@wealthhub_hq The biggest factors you missed here are: 1) the UST owns warrants for 80% of common stock so you should multiply the share count by [--] 2) the risk that UST converts the $190B SPS rather than deeming them repaid which is the economic reality that it has not acknowledged so far"
X Link 2025-10-30T02:09Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$fnma $fmcc FHFA Director Bill Pulte said today at ResiDay that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac WILL remain in conservatorship However the government plans to sell up to 5% of their shares @pulte says https://t.co/UA9wlSZbo4 FHFA Director Bill Pulte said today at ResiDay that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac WILL remain in conservatorship However the government plans to sell up to 5% of their shares @pulte says https://t.co/UA9wlSZbo4"
X Link 2025-11-08T17:05Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@RiparianMan88 I cant see the full article I dont think the gov has clearly said whether the offering would raise $ for F2 or for UST IMO $ goes to F2 to hit capital requirements. Conservatorship has been a vehicle for gov theft so far new and current investors want back control ASAP"
X Link 2025-11-08T18:21Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@RiparianMan88 But I agree capital raise sounds more like $ going to F2 It would also be consistent with Lutnicks show a mark-to-market and the UST could begin selling whatever piece it wants in the open market afterwards"
X Link 2025-11-08T18:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$FNMA $FMCC The [--] year mortgage is getting tons of attention 5+ million views on this alone and the meme strongly resembles others from Pulte that POTUS has posted Trump is thinking about housing and this significantly increases the odds Trump speaks about F2 soon Donald J. Trump Truth Social Post 02:10 PM EST 11/08/25 https://t.co/GCoYZdS1yA Donald J. Trump Truth Social Post 02:10 PM EST 11/08/25 https://t.co/GCoYZdS1yA"
X Link 2025-11-09T19:38Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"Extra $ paid toward a mortgage goes directly to principle This means you could pay a [--] year mortgage as if it were a [--] year mortgage with the same interest rate and it would be payed off in exactly [--] years. You would have that same flexibility with a [--] year mortgage too"
X Link 2025-11-09T20:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@TTX_Network The domain is registered with GoDaddy it appears to be for sale for $2M. Probably someone just having some fun FHFA or F2 would not have it up for sale. Not sure though. Cool https://www.godaddy.com/domainsearch/findtmskey=nc_com_offer&domainToCheck=Thegreatamericanmortgagecorporations.com https://www.godaddy.com/domainsearch/findtmskey=nc_com_offer&domainToCheck=Thegreatamericanmortgagecorporations.com"
X Link 2025-11-10T20:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@PeterSchiff What do you think of Bill Ackmans thesis Also are you aware of the theft the government committed with fraudulent accounting and the Net Worth Sweep Please use this link for tomorrow's Fannie Freddie Presentation at 9:00am EST: https://t.co/TSrSLkfEWX Please use this link for tomorrow's Fannie Freddie Presentation at 9:00am EST: https://t.co/TSrSLkfEWX"
X Link 2025-11-10T20:40Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Were about to have a bunch of White House meetings about what we can do There will be more to announce soon but housing has been one of the top policy things weve been studying the last few weeks -Kevin Hassett WH National Economic Council Director $FNMA $FMCC https://t.co/1UTsjVHCdk https://t.co/1UTsjVHCdk"
X Link 2025-11-11T13:46Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"$FMNA $FMCC 🚨 BREAKING: President Trump is set to fire off a BLIZZARD of economic policy announcements to make life cheaper for Americans. He's going all-in on affordability. "New efforts to address higher MORTGAGE rates" "Reducing tariffs on a range of food and agricultural products" https://t.co/kQjlq1EMHi 🚨 BREAKING: President Trump is set to fire off a BLIZZARD of economic policy announcements to make life cheaper for Americans. He's going all-in on affordability. "New efforts to address higher MORTGAGE rates" "Reducing tariffs on a range of food and agricultural products""
X Link 2025-11-17T16:40Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@BillAckman IF SPS were converted what is the downside By my calculations if they only convert the stated value not full liquidation preference at the IPO price the common stock could still appreciate 100% from here Would UST convert stated value only or full liquidation pref"
X Link 2025-11-18T16:43Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@BillAckman Could we get details of legal arguments that will be pursued if UST forces a conversion of SPS Would it be a good idea to have your lawyers from Pershing Square or plaintiffs lawyers like David Thompson could give deep-dive presentations about that"
X Link 2025-11-18T16:45Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@FnFGateFan @BillAckman Good point but I would guess that the NYSE would be able to waive those requirements temporarily. If Fannie Mae raises $30B they will meet all minimum capital requirements and can be released. Idk if its the next day or upon 10-Q but temporary waiver could be justified"
X Link 2025-11-18T19:39Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@FnFGateFan @BillAckman Not sure if that would also require SEC approval but if the admin wants to do the offering they will find a way to do it"
X Link 2025-11-18T19:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@HoldenWalker99 @JohnCarey17 At what point in time During covid fall of [----] They didnt even start retaining capital until [----] 🤦♂ Then they were trying to win an election this was a TBD issue and they were not going to execute this in the [--] months after the loss"
X Link 2025-11-19T04:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@HoldenWalker99 @JohnCarey17 And leave the unrealized value for the next admin All of the blame none of the reward executed just before the election during covid Calabria was at FHFA for less than [---] years to develop a plan again during covid craziness Ya I guess they COULD have but seriously"
X Link 2025-11-19T14:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@HoldenWalker99 @JohnCarey17 This is why I give Calabria some credit he was busy saving the mortgage market. Same with Mnuchin he wasnt sure if deeming SPS repaid was even legal because he barely had time to look. Sensibly they had planned to defer to the 2nd term just thought it would be 2020-24"
X Link 2025-11-19T14:09Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@HoldenWalker99 @TwoNickleTony @MIA95629998 @JohnCarey17 Yes when ERCF was released everyone talked about how its not 4.5% its 2.5%. Many same people are now complaining about 4.5%. Id have to look back at my numbers but assuming a 4% growth rate they would never get past 60% payout and 4% capital anyway and itd take many years"
X Link 2025-11-19T14:23Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@HoldenWalker99 @TwoNickleTony @MIA95629998 @JohnCarey17 Plus F2 are generating a 10% return at those proposed capital levels reduce them and you probably also reduce their earnings but nobody wants to talk about that part huh"
X Link 2025-11-19T14:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@HoldenWalker99 @JohnCarey17 Cool meme but LMK if you want to address the actual point. Again Calabria didnt get there until mid-2019 BTW"
X Link 2025-11-19T14:28Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@GSEHotline @BillAckman Not to mention that at current levels common can outperform JPS even with SPS conversion provided UST uses stated value not the liquidation preference. There are many reasons they would use stated value CBO uses it F2 balance sheets etc. it makes the most sense"
X Link 2025-11-19T18:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Mnuchindilutio1 @HoldenWalker99 @Led_Zephyr_ @MontSalvatUSA @BillAckman @POTUS @SecScottBessent @howardlutnick I do think this point is missed sometimes. Trump wrote that letter to answer the question that SCOTUS said should determine damages. Meaning Trump was supporting the plaintiffs argument for damages of deeming SPS repaid"
X Link 2025-11-19T22:23Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Mnuchindilutio1 @HoldenWalker99 @Led_Zephyr_ @MontSalvatUSA @BillAckman @POTUS @SecScottBessent @howardlutnick DOJ often argues positions it doesnt actually agree with I dont know what youre referring to here Im not sure I do know that John Paulson joined the Fairholme suit which seeks to deem the SPS repaid @davejones406 @midas79_ @GSEHotline DOJ often argues positions it doesnt agree with. Trumps DOJ William Barr was supposedly a proponent of this duty to defend executive branch actions. Somewhat relates to strong advocation for the unitary executive theory. Im not an expert on it but that"
X Link 2025-11-20T03:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Mnuchindilutio1 @HoldenWalker99 @Led_Zephyr_ @MontSalvatUSA @BillAckman @POTUS @SecScottBessent @howardlutnick I do think its important to recognize the potential downside with SPS + LP conversion even Ackman hedged with JPS. I think if the UST does decide to convert SPS they will use stated value at price of offering. The common can still outperform JPS with that conversion method $fnma $fmcc I made a simplified price projection matrix and probability weighted it. What do you think https://t.co/47GYsGroRF $fnma $fmcc I made a simplified price projection matrix and probability weighted it."
X Link 2025-11-20T03:32Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@HoldenWalker99 @high52weeks @Mnuchindilutio1 @aerokinetic @Led_Zephyr_ @BillAckman @POTUS @RandPaul @SecScottBessent @realDonaldTrump The path has narrowed but it is more clear if you read the directions that the courts have given. I understand if you dont want to take the time to find it but you are asserting there is no path"
X Link 2025-11-20T04:09Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@DoNotLose @sedatiko You are aware that the admin is more likely to make this decision on principled grounds than on small differences in valuation right $38B is the cost of deeming SPS repaid and that is only 0.1% of the national debt"
X Link 2025-11-20T23:31Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@DoNotLose @sedatiko By committing theft That doesnt sound principled to me The Obama admin broke some rules but if excess payments are credited there was effectively no theft. Conversion changes that Trump would be finalizing the steal. I dont think he does that based on moral principles"
X Link 2025-11-21T00:53Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@HoldenWalker99 @JamesTraylor25 For BTC maybe I underestimated how much exposure Fannie and Freddie ("F2") have to crypto not on balance sheet but in their shareholder bases. Run a correlation between F2 and bitcoin and you will see what I mean. Forced liquidations and margin calls in crypto are leading to F2 share sales I underestimated how much exposure Fannie and Freddie ("F2") have to crypto not on balance sheet but in their shareholder bases. Run a correlation between F2 and bitcoin and you will see what I mean. Forced liquidations and margin calls in crypto are leading to F2 share sales"
X Link 2025-11-21T19:15Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@DoNotLose From the little I know about IPO underwriting contracts they are very specific. They will need assurance that SPS will either be deemed repaid or converted. That can be written into a contract or just executed before hand. Idk either but Id guess PSPA amendment comes first"
X Link 2025-11-22T20:26Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@DoNotLose In your tweet you seemed to be speculating whether they would select an ibanker before or after SPSA amendment. I was guessing SPSA amendment. Obviously SPSA amendment is necessary before the actual IPO/SPO"
X Link 2025-11-22T20:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@DoNotLose Benny Johnson is really hammering Make Housing Great Again. It seems the admin is starting to focus in on housing. Benny has recently made several announcements/breaking news (according to him). Its worth paying attention to and this is Trumps post with 1M+ views Everybody stop and watch what President Trump just posted. This is EXACTLY what were fighting for. The American Dream is: - White picket fences - Rocking chairs on the porch - Kids playing in the yard - An American flag out front - Family dinners All under the same roof of a https://t.co/PFDkkwYGMA Everybody stop and watch"
X Link 2025-11-22T21:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@rule_of_law_guy @DoNotLose While I do think they will deem the SPS repaid IF they convert I think they will use stated value. Based on CBO F2 balance sheets the fact that there is a distinction in the first place etc"
X Link 2025-11-22T21:52Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@DoNotLose @rule_of_law_guy That used to be true but not anymore. Its worth another look. Common can outperform JPS from here EVEN WITH SPS CONVERSION. As long as its only stated value and at IPO price. SPS converted before warrants is worse for common. Top right [--] align most with your expectations: $fnma $fmcc I made a simplified price projection matrix and probability weighted it. What do you think https://t.co/47GYsGroRF $fnma $fmcc I made a simplified price projection matrix and probability weighted it. What do you think https://t.co/47GYsGroRF"
X Link 2025-11-22T22:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@DoNotLose @rule_of_law_guy It could be true given settled litigation reduced future litigation optics of fairness and share appreciation happy Ackman vs angry Ackman etc. More likely though its just that the value differs some (even [--] P/E increase is $30B) and the cost of deeming repaid is $38B IMO"
X Link 2025-11-22T22:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@DoNotLose @rule_of_law_guy Then what really is the cost of doing the right thing $38B $8B Could potentially make more for it And there is a cost with setting precedent as well what happened to F2 is a great playbook to run a socialist takeover of the financial system"
X Link 2025-11-22T22:19Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@DoNotLose @rule_of_law_guy JPM has a P/E above [--] and banks would tend to have more volatile earnings so F2 would likely be about there or higher. Moelis supports that thinking placing valuation on the higher side of banks"
X Link 2025-11-22T22:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@DoNotLose @rule_of_law_guy And in that excel doc I did take out $30B for IPO capital raise"
X Link 2025-11-22T22:27Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@DoNotLose @rule_of_law_guy Calabria was pretty clear they literally copy and pasted from existing conservatorship law. SCOTUS did try to separate the two by saying HERA was clearly a special conservatorship but idk"
X Link 2025-11-22T22:54Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@KoyfinCharts Return on invested brain damage $fnma $fmcc"
X Link 2025-11-22T23:12Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"@gcmarbella @PeterSchiff has several things right but he has clearly not done enough research on this topic Private gains and public losses the exact opposite is true when considering accounting practices and the Net Worth Sweep"
X Link 2025-11-25T16:27Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@MichaelHal54147 @realDonaldTrump @SecScottBessent @pulte @BillAckman Nah F2 has required years of patience. Announcements are coming Pulte recently predicted action in Q1 maybe Q2. Politicians say best time to break bad news is just before a long weekend. The admin is spinning this as good news so Id guess we hear something in December"
X Link 2025-11-26T02:16Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@TRothell62855 @MichaelHal54147 @realDonaldTrump @SecScottBessent @pulte @BillAckman Nah To Dec announcement or action in Q1/2 Now that F2 have $170B capital its no longer recap and release its just release. A simple amendment gives Trump $300B+ I think hell do it I first bought shares in [----] and added over the years so [--] years and counting"
X Link 2025-11-26T18:22Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@HoldenWalker99 @seaurchincevice @howardlutnick @SecScottBessent Bessent either needs to clear the path to deem the SPS repaid or be certain in converting them. [--] years and still counting has shown that not to be a simple matter Trump wont want to be seen as declining $ but also wont want his name on the largest govt taking in history"
X Link 2025-12-03T21:46Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@HoldenWalker99 @seaurchincevice @howardlutnick @SecScottBessent Doesnt need to be proved only need to be possible. It is possible and Bill Ackman is publicly supporting the idea so that box is checked"
X Link 2025-12-03T22:54Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@seaurchincevice @HoldenWalker99 @howardlutnick @SecScottBessent @BillAckman As you probably know but omitted neither C or AIG had a NWS Pershing Square has about $21B its F2 position is currently about $2B so about 10% of the fund now"
X Link 2025-12-04T01:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@seaurchincevice @HoldenWalker99 @howardlutnick @SecScottBessent @BillAckman Yes and that is why F2 shareholders have asked for UST to give the money back to F2 (plus interest) Alternatively UST can deem SPS repaid so UST doesnt have to write a $300B check"
X Link 2025-12-04T01:28Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@DoNotLose @Bow47064648John I know its a class action that David Thompson is representing. That is not wrong I have talked to bankruptcy lawyers at large firms who are interested and may be willing to self-fund future litigation"
X Link 2025-12-04T01:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Mnuchindilutio1 @EphraimH1980 @BillAckman 🙄 @Mnuchindilutio1 @Finance_Waves @michaeljburry You seem to like regurgitating misinformation from @DoNotLose. Ackman uses the full 79.9% warrants then those are diluted by the conversion of JPS and IPO to get to 71%. Thats not even hard to understand just read the slide the number came from https://t.co/4GuWmhkwQA @Mnuchindilutio1 @Finance_Waves @michaeljburry You seem to like regurgitating misinformation from @DoNotLose. Ackman uses the full 79.9% warrants then those are diluted by the conversion of JPS and IPO to get to 71%. Thats not even hard"
X Link 2025-12-15T15:51Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@tho58575 @pulte @POTUS @BillAckman How much MBS should F2 holdCurrently a fixed $225B limit each but holding $90B each. I think letting them hold 10% of outstanding MBS could be reasonable. That would be $750B+ total and would help offset the Feds MBS QT. Earning more while MBS appreciate as yields drop"
X Link 2025-12-17T16:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@tho58575 @pulte @POTUS @BillAckman Its true that as refinancing increases due to lower rates that prepayment would also increase but assuming that is reinvested the outcome would still be increased market value for the part that doesnt just less recurring revenue. Separately F2 make $ on the refinance"
X Link 2025-12-17T19:27Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@HorsemanCountry @DoNotLose I think the best shareholder base comment was probably about who they work with on the IPO. Bessent has also said that many banks would be a part of an offering this size theyll want long term holders. Then again 3-6% IPO the current shareholder base even w max dilution"
X Link 2025-12-23T21:47Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Greg06679569 @HorsemanCountry @DoNotLose @grok Max dilution is convert SPS AND liquidation pref AND warrants after AND announcing plan before so price crashes first. Common stock would be worth $0. Even then JPS would be worth 10% of F2 and likely convert so existing shareholders are larger part of base than IPO buyers"
X Link 2025-12-24T05:13Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Trump posting Pulte memes again (This seems to match the format of others that were reported to be from Pulte) And Pulte reposting it $FNMA $FMCC ( @realDonaldTrump - Truth Social Post ) ( Donald J. Trump - Dec [--] [----] 11:24 AM ET ) https://t.co/qETf76SLPy ( @realDonaldTrump - Truth Social Post ) ( Donald J. Trump - Dec [--] [----] 11:24 AM ET ) https://t.co/qETf76SLPy"
X Link 2025-12-26T23:03Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"While F2 do have $200B in reserves the purchase of $200B MBS will come from increasing their retained MBS portfolio to the higher end of their FHFA cap currently $225B each $450B total. They hold a combined $240B leaving room for $210B in additional purchases $FNMA $FMCC More housing activity from Trumps Truth Social invoking Fannie Freddie . I am instructing my Representatives to BUY $200 BILLION DOLLARS IN MORTGAGE BONDS. This will drive Mortgage Rates DOWN monthly payments DOWN and make the cost of owning a home more affordable. https://t.co/Gm0tuQi4eX More housing activity from Trumps"
X Link 2026-01-08T22:46Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"@VladTheInflator They will be expanding their mortgage portfolios (see below) not using their capital reserves which youre probably confusing As of Q3 [----] capital reserves are Fannie - $105B Freddie - $68B Total - $173B. Probably $180B by now which is not a stretch to round to $200B While F2 do have $200B in reserves the purchase of $200B MBS will come from increasing their retained MBS portfolio to the higher end of their FHFA cap currently $225B each $450B total. They hold a combined $240B leaving room for $210B in additional purchases $FNMA $FMCC While F2 do have $200B in reserves the"
X Link 2026-01-09T20:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@luckybazooka @KelseyHard10948 Thats a bad bet for you considering that he has been trumpeting Fannie and Freddies $200B MBS purchases and theyve stated they have major housing announcements to be made in Davos. Maybe nothing about them going public but Id guess they will at least be mentioned"
X Link 2026-01-14T16:45Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@AlanGL2025 I dont think the market likes it. Hes kinda bragging about NOT selling F2. While it might be a compliment to Trumps intelligence I dont know what else it accomplishes. The logic seems to lead toward he would be smart not to sell them again I know thats not the goal but"
X Link 2026-01-16T03:10Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@jyorkcar81 @nicosintichakis The $200B MBS purchas will be through not regulatory capital but existing retained portfolios which currently add up to $240B leaving them $210B below the cap of $450. FHFA Director Pulte himself said on national television that if anything it makes the IPO more likely"
X Link 2026-01-16T14:01Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@RiparianMan88 @AlanGL2025 Larger valuations are easier by converting JPS. JP Morgan has a 15x PE so thats probably the upper bound supported by Moelis blueprint analysis of comparable PEs. I cant see this under 10x PE with S&P at like 30x PE. My estimate is [----] PE * $30B = $375B total market cap"
X Link 2026-01-16T14:52Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@HollandStanley #2 IPO should get F2 across their minimum capital requirements then F2 will be released just afterwards. Before IPO the capital stack must be smoothed and the path must be made clear. The current equity prices reflect uncertainty with how the capital stack will be dealt with"
X Link 2026-01-16T20:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@HollandStanley #3 Capital requirements are fine. Not ideal but fine. Bessent has mentioned lowering mortgage capital requirements across the board not just F2. Theres a good chance that will be announced but not necessary. F2 min cap req is 2.5% terminal is 3.25% max is 4.5%"
X Link 2026-01-16T20:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"It sounds like the reason $FNMA and $FMCC have been dropping last few days is because of a NYT article that suggested the F2 IPO was unlikely due to the $200B MBS purchase. Does anyone think it is because of something else Also heres evidence that narrative is wrong 👇"
X Link 2026-01-16T20:53Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"That assertion is directly contradicted by FHFA Director Pultes statement that $FNMA and $FMCC buying MBS is also potentially good for a prospective IPO 5:00-5:05 full question and answer 4:30-5:10 https://m.youtube.com/watchv=bjT5I35UChY https://m.youtube.com/watchv=bjT5I35UChY"
X Link 2026-01-16T20:53Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"@pulte With respect to a F2 IPO you have said if Trump decides to do it. Trump already said he is working on it. That was him announcing his decision to do it right Youre uncertainty is being seen as if he is rethinking this plan"
X Link 2026-01-16T23:22Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@rule_of_law_guy @dragonstoscale @Alec_Mazo @timpagliara Somewhat surprisingly the ratio of JPS price to common price has held pretty steady during this selloff. That suggests the exit is in doubt more than before rather than the odds of SPS conversion having been raised"
X Link 2026-01-17T05:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@jm16jm16 @rule_of_law_guy @dragonstoscale @Alec_Mazo @timpagliara I agree that probably no market participant knows something but to the extent that JPS trade primarily on par times the odds of an exit - a lower price seems to imply that the market has collectively decreased its perceived/theoretical/predicted odds of an exit"
X Link 2026-01-18T07:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@DoNotLose I think his point is the NYSE listing doc doesnt change anything. Should be obvious they are prepared to list at any time. Release and timing is no more certain than previously. I appreciate that he is (usually) expressing his views constructively. Thanks Holden"
X Link 2026-01-22T16:15Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@T_Castelluccio Maybe even people wanting to take some gains but didnt want to pay taxes on them so soon. Selling this year means paying next"
X Link 2026-01-24T00:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Even with SPS conversion $FNMA and $FMCC can outperform JPS from here. Deeming SPS repaid (the principled thing to do and most likely IMO) is a bonus. Heres my math: $fnma $fmcc I made a simplified price projection matrix and probability weighted it. What do you think https://t.co/47GYsGroRF $fnma $fmcc I made a simplified price projection matrix and probability weighted it. What do you think https://t.co/47GYsGroRF"
X Link 2025-10-17T01:57Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"My fav JPS $FNMAT trades at $16 par is $25 upside is 60% $FNMA traded at $10 today $16 if SPS (no LP) converted at IPO valuation of $400B upside 60% (math in above screenshot) With SPS deemed repaid it could be $37 upside 270%"
X Link 2025-10-17T02:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@dragonstoscale @MichaelHal54147 Thats not it either he said the spread between mortgage rates and the 10yr need to NOT EXPAND and that it would be nice for it to decrease and they have a plan to make it decrease"
X Link 2026-01-28T14:27Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@firewill65 Agree we likely hear nothing until after earnings Disagree for IPO mortgage rates do not need to drop or tighten nor do they need to complete the MBS purchases"
X Link 2026-01-29T17:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@GeorgeFruk @HorsemanCountry Shareholders would mostly be in favor of F2 maxing out their retained MBS portfolio because it increases earnings so releasing them does nothing to change the MBS acquisition"
X Link 2026-01-31T06:18Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@gcmarbella Bill Pulte has directly said multiple times now that the opposite is true (I know you know that I appreciate your reporting)"
X Link 2026-02-04T23:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@nicosintichakis Patriots [--] - Seahawks 20"
X Link 2026-02-05T04:18Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@revgalerivs @nicosintichakis https://x.com/billackman/status/1991935364508889378 I underestimated how much exposure Fannie and Freddie ("F2") have to crypto not on balance sheet but in their shareholder bases. Run a correlation between F2 and bitcoin and you will see what I mean. Forced liquidations and margin calls in crypto are leading to F2 share sales https://x.com/billackman/status/1991935364508889378 I underestimated how much exposure Fannie and Freddie ("F2") have to crypto not on balance sheet but in their shareholder bases. Run a correlation between F2 and bitcoin and you will see"
X Link 2026-02-06T18:16Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

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