@DataRepublican DataRepublican (small r)
There are reports of a perceived influence of George Soros and his network on global politics, including attempts to destabilize countries and promote radical ideologies. Soros' ideology of "open society" and pluralism is seen as a driving force behind these efforts. Critics argue that his actions and those of his allies, including some NGOs and political groups, aim to undermine traditional institutions and values.
Engagements: [---------] #
Mentions: [---] #
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CreatorRank: [-----] #
Social Influence
Social category influence countries #3639 finance celebrities technology brands #7666 stocks automotive brands us election social networks #7300 travel destinations cryptocurrencies
Social topic influence elon musk #3268, money, has been, united states #788, countries, israel, maga, china #1018, in the #2407, ericldaugh
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @elonmusk @ericldaugh @basedmikelee @mattvanswol @cynicalpublius @jdvance @jackposobiec @nicksortor @skdoubledub33 @mikebenzcyber @jameshartline @doge @bullfrog35 @gunthereagleman @honestpollster @redditlies @charliekirk11 @deaflibertarian @grok @pelositracker
Top assets mentioned Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Dogecoin (DOGE) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) GrokCoin (GROKCOIN)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Furthermore many of that cabal named in @mtaibbi s tweets had intelligence backgrounds as @MrAndyNgo has been showing. https://x.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1601387242680832000 Breaking: Seconds ago Twitter Elections & Crisis Response Lead Patrick Conlon wiped his LinkedIn detailing his past intelligence work in the US Department of Defense (He was implicated in the latest #TwitterFiles by @mtaibbi.) But I have an archive: https://t.co/kXkJL5mUsE https://t.co/0egqd8ge7e https://x.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1601387242680832000 Breaking: Seconds ago Twitter Elections & Crisis Response Lead Patrick Conlon"
X Link 2022-12-10T16:56Z 50.5K followers, [--] engagements
"So Twitter invested a tremendous amount of its IP and resources in building the worlds most advanced moderation tooling system for the sole purpose of being used by a small group of people with strong intelligence ties to influence current events"
X Link 2022-12-10T16:56Z 50.5K followers, [--] engagements
"Contrarian view: look at what happened to house prices in the 70s when interest rates went way up. TL;DR: Inflation doesn't go away. In fact I'd argue home-slash-rental prices are the very root of inflation"
X Link 2023-10-29T04:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I feel like this Tweet shows the difference between conservatism and leftism in a nutshell. Every single conservative I know would be like "what who is that account and why am I blocking this account""
X Link 2023-11-19T20:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@alexeheath Their choice of CEO speaks a lot. As does the fact none of the [--] work in OpenAI. Likely vague safety concerns. Not AGI-type concerns more like disinformation-type concerns"
X Link 2023-11-21T13:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@dwarkesh_sp I argue that in many ways LLMs are the opposite of AI. Before you yell at me - think about this. The human mind excels at making new connections based on sparse information. LLMs work the opposite direction - compressing gigantic chunks of information"
X Link 2023-11-21T22:08Z 683.2K followers, [----] engagements
"If theres any one endorsement I can make to follow on the AI debacle its @alexeheath . I cannot prove it on this account - but he is THE person in the know and I dont use the lightly"
X Link 2023-11-23T03:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@SamanthaPfaff Funny how every Democrat hates him now that he recovered his brain function and improved his mental health"
X Link 2024-01-31T01:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@steakdriven @politicalmath If I prove to you that Panera is the only one who benefits from this or ever will benefit from this will you believe that this is extreme corruption"
X Link 2024-02-28T21:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@steakdriven @politicalmath You didn't answer my question. If I prove to you that Panera is the only one who benefits or who will ever benefit will you change your mind"
X Link 2024-02-29T19:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@prestonjbyrne I have not been the same since I ever found out that the federal government forced Grindr sale in the interest of "national security" years ago and nobody noticed"
X Link 2024-04-25T05:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Trump's debate performance was entertaining in [----] poor in [----]. But somehow he got INT+5 and WIS+10 for [----]. I'm shocked. #TheRealDebate"
X Link 2024-06-28T01:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"IMO - this wasn't staged. A few reasons: [--]. People seem genuinely horrified [--]. Biden probably is coherent with the right routines meds settings etc. They removed that audience for a reason. [--]. There were other ways to force out Biden without publicly embarrassing the party"
X Link 2024-06-28T04:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"looks like someone got the memo about that Nevada ballot deadline Bad debate nights happen. Trust me I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the Bad debate nights happen. Trust me I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and"
X Link 2024-06-28T21:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Youtube watching counts on all the news channels for the press conference is crazy"
X Link 2024-07-11T23:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@earlyvotedata @RalstonReports Been to NV many times. It has a much more "red" vibe than most red states I've seen. Las Vegas has been full of Trump merchandise for a while"
X Link 2024-07-13T18:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@AutismCapital Moderately conservative/on-the-fence NT have gotten engaged. Unusually quiet for everyone else including the left-leaning Slack group I'm on. ASD glued to the screen per usual"
X Link 2024-07-14T01:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"1 inch away from civil war. What we saw wasn't luck it was divine mercy"
X Link 2024-07-14T02:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@AutismCapital I love you but Jesus is real. Ask ChatGPT how unparalleled NT is among other documents"
X Link 2024-07-14T05:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Going to sign off for the night. But on the chance any skeptic is still questioning after we came within a hair of starting civil war -- ask ChatGPT how the New Testament stacks up against other historical documents"
X Link 2024-07-14T05:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@VeganPrius God spared us from civil war. Our job now is to trust God to exact any vengeance on our behalf"
X Link 2024-07-14T12:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@MVernon_5 @JDVance1 Possibly the best pick he could have made"
X Link 2024-07-16T00:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"- On July 10th the White House announced that Jill Biden would speak in Pittsburgh on the 13th at [--] PM. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/first-lady-jill-biden-to-visit-pittsburgh-on-saturday-same-day-as-former-president-donald-trumps-rally/ar-BB1pKH69 https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/first-lady-jill-biden-to-visit-pittsburgh-on-saturday-same-day-as-former-president-donald-trumps-rally/ar-BB1pKH69"
X Link 2024-07-17T01:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Sorry I don't understand is this guy supposed to be working for the other side This is the Republican Party folks. No serious conversation on policy. No focus on the people. Just whatever the hell this is. https://t.co/fAFp7Lydgo This is the Republican Party folks. No serious conversation on policy. No focus on the people. Just whatever the hell this is. https://t.co/fAFp7Lydgo"
X Link 2024-07-19T03:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"My conspiracy theory Sisson is #MAGA and pulling off the greatest generational troll ever. This is the Republican Party folks. No serious conversation on policy. No focus on the people. Just whatever the hell this is. https://t.co/fAFp7Lydgo This is the Republican Party folks. No serious conversation on policy. No focus on the people. Just whatever the hell this is. https://t.co/fAFp7Lydgo"
X Link 2024-07-19T03:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@dg_sailingfan There's a lot of ways a Biden staffer can justify Biden staying in. The other candidates don't have name recognition Biden has the $$ Kamala is a disaster etc. If the Dems are doomed no matter what might as well as collect the paycheck + prestige"
X Link 2024-07-19T14:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"same warm fuzzy feeling as watching Biden vs. rest-of-DNC fighting all week https://t.co/02zNbJmthu https://t.co/02zNbJmthu"
X Link 2024-07-21T04:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@JackPosobiec Confirmed - I endorse Kamala as nominee"
X Link 2024-07-21T20:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I endorse Kamala as Democratic nominee. It is high time that those of us who would never pull in 1% of the primary vote finally get representation You will see so-called conservative women endorsing Kamala Screenshot this You will see so-called conservative women endorsing Kamala Screenshot this"
X Link 2024-07-21T20:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Supporting Kamala Harris IS misogyny. Think about it"
X Link 2024-07-23T04:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@JackPosobiec swallow the holypill. if you believe God was involved in Trump's near miss then you have to believe God is involved in the election outcome no matter what"
X Link 2024-07-24T17:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Cwharrisontx @loonlake55 once you change that to "they don't believe in the concept of truth" it all falls in place. what is truth"
X Link 2024-07-24T18:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@earlyvotedata @PpollingNumbers this election was never going to be a cakewalk if no other reason than there's already an assassination attempt and a coup"
X Link 2024-07-25T15:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A lot of powerful people openly say Trump is an existential threat. There's already been an assassination attempt and a coup. Believe that they truly believe their own words. This election was NEVER going to be easy"
X Link 2024-07-25T15:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@QPollsandnews This is similar to what @Peoples_Pundit has been saying. We got spoiled by the push polls designed to dump Joe Biden (and rightfully so)"
X Link 2024-07-27T01:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@AutismCapital Calling JD Vance "weird' is discrimination against undiagnosed autistics. Change my mind"
X Link 2024-07-29T22:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I'm generally a "don't underestimate the power of media manifesting wishes into reality" person but it's worth noting that @Peoples_Pundit has been adamant that Kamala Harris is popular with the deep blue states and not so much with battleground states. DDHQ Polling Average Update: [----] Presidential (Georgia) 🟥 Donald Trump (R): 47.9% (+4.8) 🟦 Kamala Harris (D): 43.1% This is R+0.3% since last week. This average is based on [--] polls. https://t.co/acerPPcHCh DDHQ Polling Average Update: [----] Presidential (Georgia) 🟥 Donald Trump (R): 47.9% (+4.8) 🟦 Kamala Harris (D): 43.1% This is R+0.3%"
X Link 2024-07-30T00:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"It's ableist to call JD Vance "weird" because he's undiagnosed autistic. [--]. He almost never discusses his feelings. It is almost like he is a detached character personally. [--]. He did math problems for fun as a kid. Like my ASD2 kid does. [--]. He graduated college in [--] year [--] months while working at the same time. [--]. He has a lot of issues with social skills in college and graduate school which he attributes to lack of education but . [--]. He mentions at the end that his wife has a lot of difficulty getting him to actually talk things through instead of withdrawing / shutting down. [--]. High test"
X Link 2024-07-30T01:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I read Hillbilly Elegy last week and IMO there's evidence for JD being autistic. Which makes calling him "weird" . well ableist Here the data points: [--]. He almost never discusses his feelings. It is almost like he is a detached character personally. [--]. He did math problems for fun as a kid. Like my ASD2 kid does. [--]. He graduated college in [--] year [--] months while working at the same time. (Hyperfixation) [--]. He has a lot of issues with social skills in college and graduate school which he attributes to lack of education but . [--]. He mentions at the end that his wife has a lot of difficulty"
X Link 2024-07-30T13:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@PoliticsFollow6 @QPollsandnews It's mathematics. Mail-in ballots were heavily D and should have given Biden a 1-2% disadvantage. Which would have put Trump over the top in several states"
X Link 2024-08-02T18:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@hodgetwins Look up the training date of ChatGPT 4o. And replace Donald Trump with Suggum Deeznutz"
X Link 2024-08-03T03:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@EndWokeness You're better than this. Look up the training date of GPT 4o. And replace Donald Trump with a random name"
X Link 2024-08-03T04:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"IMO - Fed starts panic rate cuts it'll trigger a negative feedback loop. Any investment activity that might be downstream of those rates will be on hold waiting for more cuts. We should've cut spending instead of offsetting spending with rate increases"
X Link 2024-08-05T13:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@earlyvotedata Good question. I'd say that largely depends on the government response. Worst-case scenario would be a communist takeover of equity. Something like USGOV offers to seize your 401K in exchange for an annuity or take your home in exchange for assuming your mortgage"
X Link 2024-08-05T13:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Never seen so many retail investing / retirement fund outages at once. Just saying. BREAKING: It has now been [---] hours since the market opened and users at Schwab Vanguard Fidelity Ameritrade and E-Trade are still unable to access their accounts. The volatility index $VIX just hit its third highest level in history. Yet retail traders are unable to buy https://t.co/ixkpq1KOO0 BREAKING: It has now been [---] hours since the market opened and users at Schwab Vanguard Fidelity Ameritrade and E-Trade are still unable to access their accounts. The volatility index $VIX just hit its third highest"
X Link 2024-08-05T15:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Tim Walz is a childless cat lady. Its a mindset"
X Link 2024-08-06T22:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@greg16676935420 They have a much lower standard of living compared to the USA. They hate it when you tell them that though"
X Link 2024-08-08T13:21Z 30.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@HuppenthalJohn It takes on a different light when you consider Moses wrote it :)"
X Link 2024-08-08T20:54Z 30.7K followers, [--] engagements
"@TommyTom34 @reddit_lies I think people with victim mentality just run off to get an ASD diagnosis in order to justify their victim mentality. That is exactly what one of my unemployed friends did. He thought it explained everything in his life. There are tons of highly successful ASD1/2 people"
X Link 2024-08-17T04:14Z 30.2K followers, [---] engagements
"@TommyTom34 @reddit_lies Same. Quit the booze and power suits and doing the best work of my life now"
X Link 2024-08-17T12:33Z 32.9K followers, [--] engagements
"@ChrisMartzWX Illiberalism requires uniformity. Liberalism doesn't. Progressives are illiberal ergo they can't tolerate Elon's existence. It's that simple"
X Link 2024-08-19T01:03Z 28.5K followers, [----] engagements
"If she really does speak for women no wonder marriage rates are going down. What a petty line to draw. My standards in the opposite sex - love Jesus love family and take care of health. This is 💯 true. Men playing video games is peak unattractive. Beyond red flag. Like dealbreaker zone. Its weird that so many dudes dont get this. https://t.co/nJcNiVPr8T This is 💯 true. Men playing video games is peak unattractive. Beyond red flag. Like dealbreaker zone. Its weird that so many dudes dont get this. https://t.co/nJcNiVPr8T"
X Link 2024-08-20T13:39Z 30.3K followers, [---] engagements
"@QPollsandnews How did RFK factor in this"
X Link 2024-08-22T02:34Z 29.8K followers, [---] engagements
"@deaflibertarian Yep. Walz the candidate has more than enough material. We need way more Walz memes exposes etc"
X Link 2024-08-22T21:45Z 30.4K followers, [--] engagements
"If GWB really is speaking. well FAFO. Especially if RFK endorses Trump tomorrow"
X Link 2024-08-22T23:21Z 30.3K followers, [---] engagements
"@reddit_lies which is ironic because his words never made any sense to me"
X Link 2024-08-23T04:12Z 30.5K followers, [---] engagements
"RFK Jr. laid out these priorities - [--]. Don't censor [--]. Don't wage war [--]. Don't be fat If this is what takes to turn back on communism I'll buy it"
X Link 2024-08-24T05:21Z 29.5K followers, [---] engagements
"Very nice to see RFK supporters come out with their grievances and opinions. As opposed to "Hello fellow Republicans I was hardcore MAGA for [--] years but now I am voting Kamala to save democracy.""
X Link 2024-08-24T16:25Z 31.3K followers, [---] engagements
"@earlyvotedata @BenZeisloft I wonder if they believe Lindsay Graham was serious about a federal abortion ban right before [----] elections"
X Link 2024-08-24T19:53Z 30K followers, [--] engagements
"I met Mike Pence in person. I probably have the audio somewhere. He was very very clear that Trump was the one who pushed the right wing picks on court. Most Republicans including him wanted more moderate picks that would pass a contentious Senate more easily"
X Link 2024-08-24T19:56Z 30.6K followers, [----] engagements
"If one person is responsible for overturning Roe vs. Wade its Trump. Abandoning him on the basis of a Tweet he made out of nowhere a few hours before RFK endorsement is a hot take"
X Link 2024-08-24T19:57Z 29.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@earlyvotedata @EricLDaugh @cbouzy oh I hope hes advising Kamala Harris"
X Link 2024-08-25T23:42Z 30.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@ElectionWiz Is it just me or did media sentiment about EVs suddenly turn negative overnight when Elon bought X"
X Link 2024-08-26T12:46Z 10.8K followers, [---] engagements
"@ConceptualJames There's also quite specific prophecies that haven't been fulfilled yet. There's never been a time in history which I'm aware of where lots of people claimed to be Jesus for example. Matthew 24:5"
X Link 2024-08-27T05:42Z 29.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@earlyvotedata @QPollsandnews I'm in an optimistic mood. I'll go with +8 Trump and +11 Cruz"
X Link 2024-08-30T15:44Z 15.2K followers, [--] engagements
"@Epsteins_Mom @earlyvotedata @RpsAgainstTrump Why Please back up your citations with Bible verses"
X Link 2024-08-31T15:46Z 28.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@annamlulis "you shall not murder a child by abortion nor kill that which is born" https://www.earlychristianwritings.com/text/didache-roberts.html https://www.earlychristianwritings.com/text/didache-roberts.html"
X Link 2024-09-02T16:38Z 14.7K followers, [--] engagements
"If you have access to Grok type in: "Which text in antiquity has the strongest historical support in terms of number of copies dating and number of referring texts Share the actual numbers and also comparative works." The evidence is all around us we choose to ignore it"
X Link 2024-09-03T16:46Z 12.8K followers, [---] engagements
"@ConceptualJames Grok gave an unbiased answer to - "Which text in antiquity has the strongest historical support in terms of number of copies dating and number of referring texts Share the actual numbers and also comparative works.""
X Link 2024-09-03T16:55Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements
"🌈🌴✨ Go Kamala 🌟🌊 She's not just gonna win Florida she's gonna make it 🌈BLUE🌈 again 🌴🐆 Let's flip the Sunshine State with the power of unity diversity and progressive vibes 💪✊ Power to the people 🌍❤ Let's ride this wave 🏄♀🌊 to victory with Kamala at the helm 🚢💙 🌟 💛💙🌻 The Harris/Walz campaign is expanding its staff in Florida. You dont expand staff unless its a place you believe you can win. The Harris/Walz campaign is expanding its staff in Florida. You dont expand staff unless its a place you believe you can win"
X Link 2024-09-03T23:39Z 14.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@earlyvotedata @EaglesTTT Not exactly. FL is the only state to do real time returns. My goal is to give @ScottPresler all the addresses of unregistered PA voters. But ONLY the statistically Republican ones"
X Link 2024-09-04T02:48Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@earlyvotedata @EaglesTTT @ScottPresler I'm happy to give Democrats the equivalent addresses as long as they know they'll have to pay dearly and that will go directly to the Trump campaign"
X Link 2024-09-04T02:48Z 10.5K followers, [--] engagements
"FYI - sharing a little tip. If you travel to Europe you know you're passing through AMS CDG or LHR. Something went wrong and I had [--] hours in AMS. Turns out there's . this hourly hotel right next to the McD's in AMS. Best sleep slash time skip ever. Every layover will be AMS from now on"
X Link 2024-09-05T03:31Z 27.8K followers, [---] engagements
"@QPollsandnews Hate to say it but he might be smart in watching the returns from the Cayman Islands"
X Link 2024-09-06T18:18Z 12.9K followers, [---] engagements
"@quacktack Openaddresses (Google) for most extant PA addresses. TIGER census blocks loaded in PostGIS. Individual counties can be pulled in SVG. PA sells voter rolls for $20 including party registration. data as far as how many live within a block. http://Census.gov http://Census.gov"
X Link 2024-09-29T04:49Z 50.5K followers, [---] engagements
"@quacktack Beyond that I thought of getting FL precinct-level maps made - they do publish shapefiles individual precinct ballot data by party and the challenge is in reconciling precinct names. But that is a vanity project given how red FL is now"
X Link 2024-09-29T04:54Z 27.7K followers, [--] engagements
"@quacktack If youre actually willing to drive the PA effort Ill supply you with GitHub access my private code and help you where youre stuck. All this will work just fine in my head"
X Link 2024-09-29T04:57Z 15.6K followers, [--] engagements
"@earlyvotedata I have family there and . no water no power no ability to travel on roads. Much bigger disaster than FL. Meanwhile @reddit_lies is posting mocking memes (from the left that is)"
X Link 2024-09-30T03:53Z 15.7K followers, [--] engagements
"@earlyvotedata @reddit_lies I wouldn't say "harder" but FL was way more prepared. I have family in both areas"
X Link 2024-09-30T03:55Z 28K followers, [--] engagements
"@deaflibertarian it's ok you've got [--] days to delete it before FEMA shows up and has their feelings hurt"
X Link 2024-09-30T22:00Z 14.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@pizzafan2022 @deaflibertarian I know for a fact that FEMA are fifth responders not first responders. It wasn't Nazi to call that out when Katrina hit. Just saying"
X Link 2024-09-30T22:46Z 30.8K followers, [--] engagements
"@earlyvotedata The standard leftist explanation will be "but the right-wing pollsters missed 2022." Have you done any digging into how that happened"
X Link 2024-10-03T21:15Z 30.7K followers, [--] engagements
"@earlyvotedata found it thanks to Grok. Both cases were a miss of low propensity white voter turnouts. [----] overestimated. [----] + [----] underestimated"
X Link 2024-10-03T21:23Z 30.7K followers, [--] engagements
"@Shananay_G @CynicalPublius @MZHemingway @kyleezempel @FDRLST Oh I ran these claims through GPT-o1. GPT-o1 obviously doesn't have knowledge of Helene but was unable to find inaccuracies in the rest of it. Please feel free to point out which one of the many specific claims are false"
X Link 2024-10-05T03:23Z 30.7K followers, [--] engagements
"is updating every [--] minutes. @cbouzy - let's make a bet right now Harris wins FL I delete my X account. Trump wins FL you delete your X account. Simple right I am no statistical genius like you should be an easy win. https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/ https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/"
X Link 2024-10-07T12:31Z 30.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@dg_sailingfan @earlyvotedata Agreed but correction. FEMA has never been first responders. They are fifth responders who like to take over and pretend they solved everything. They have always been. It's just that Helene exposed them for the fraud they are"
X Link 2024-10-07T13:06Z 30.7K followers, [--] engagements
"I feel like the whole "government created Milton" thing is bots or feds or both"
X Link 2024-10-08T01:38Z 30.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@chasingthebus13 @Stvn7486 @reddit_lies It explains almost everything. The reaction to Helene for example"
X Link 2024-10-09T00:59Z 30.7K followers, [---] engagements
"Florida early voting in full swing again today. Orlando and Tampa aren't reporting but the rest of blue FL seems to have mostly caught up. Advantage Harris crept up to 7.03%. (As of [--] Oct [----] it was 18%) Of interest Broward might be going the same way as Miami-Dade - rightward. https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/ https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/"
X Link 2024-10-12T15:24Z [----] followers, 25.2K engagements
"Hey @cbouzy . I'll make the terms of our bet even easier. Trump wins Florida by [--] points or more you delete your X account. If it goes the other way I'll delete mine. You on Stop using [----] as the benchmark for evaluating Florida's [----] early votes. Instead consider using data from [----] for a more accurate comparison. While @EvanPower doesn't want to admit it Republicans aren't performing as well as he had anticipated. https://t.co/t0iymFOwdd Stop using [----] as the benchmark for evaluating Florida's [----] early votes. Instead consider using data from [----] for a more accurate comparison. While"
X Link 2024-10-12T16:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This is basically their only argument - that we are reverting to [----] voting patterns. Let me defeat this talking point for once and for all. In actuality Republicans were quicker to drop VBM than Democrats in Florida. 54.9% of Democrats voted by mail in [----] and that dropped to 47.8% in [----]. 36.1% of Republicans voted by mail in [----] and that dropped to 29.9% in [----]. The trend has been that Democrats are more likely to retain vote-by-mail habits permanently. Evan the data suggests Floridians have returned to pre-pandemic norms. If my analysis is correct Democrats will perform better in"
X Link 2024-10-12T22:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The counter-argument is that fewer Democrats will VBM because of no more COVID. But I looked at [----] - [----] VBM decreases just now and Republicans dropped it in greater proportions than Democrats. The exact opposite of what they're trying to claim"
X Link 2024-10-12T22:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Save this post next time you hear the "muh Democrats aren't VBM anymore" cope. I honestly cannot take enough of a victory lap. Gallup says in [----] Democrats will vote by mail about 200% as much as Republicans. Guess what [----] was D+200%. "Muh pandemic" as being a reason for Democrats underperforming mail is in shambles right now. I honestly cannot take enough of a victory lap. Gallup says in [----] Democrats will vote by mail about 200% as much as Republicans. Guess what [----] was D+200%. "Muh pandemic" as being a reason for Democrats underperforming mail is in shambles right now"
X Link 2024-10-12T22:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Working on PA early voting maps. Here's hoping ASD holds out long enough to actually publish these tonight"
X Link 2024-10-13T04:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Advantage Harris holding steady on the map at 7.09%. Hillsborough the only blue VBM county not reporting in. If IPEV shows similar outperformance gaps as in the past this could very well be DeSantis territory well into the double digits. https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/ https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/"
X Link 2024-10-13T17:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Sudden influx of these types of comments. I guess when youve rejected objective reality then it is a valid strategy to say what you want to believe and decide thats the reality. Bring the numbers or get blocked. @TonerousHyus Alternate reality. He is finishedMAGA is finished. No need to debatejust watch and remember this tweet. America wants nothing to do with anger racism and hate. Itisover. And it wont be particularly close. Race will be called for Harris by 7pm PT. Just watch. @TonerousHyus Alternate reality. He is finishedMAGA is finished. No need to debatejust watch and remember this"
X Link 2024-10-13T18:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Remember for the muh Democrats wont VBM argument to hold true youd have to explain why more 🔴 decided to embrace the glory days of COVID-19 VBM. Orange County California early vote [----] vs [----] [----] 🟦34185 🟥19933 🟨16325 TOTAL: [-----] 🟦 +14252 [----] 🟦27812 🟥26588 🟨16815 TOTAL [-----] 🟦 +1224 https://t.co/hTItTCrg2n Orange County California early vote [----] vs [----] [----] 🟦34185 🟥19933 🟨16325 TOTAL: [-----] 🟦 +14252 [----] 🟦27812 🟥26588 🟨16815 TOTAL [-----] 🟦 +1224 https://t.co/hTItTCrg2n"
X Link 2024-10-13T22:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Mark_R_Mitchell What should the talking point be for Romney / [----] arguments Ive been saying it is because you overestimated low propensity white voters but would be nice to have confirmation"
X Link 2024-10-14T14:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@onlyonecourtney @tannerXrubicon @reddit_lies Did her parents regret having her"
X Link 2024-10-14T22:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I don't wish to berate you because I thought exactly like you when I was an atheist. I told my ob-gyn that if anything were wrong with my child he'd be aborted. No question. He won't need a full time nurse aide but he does have a diagnosis that gives him a strong likelihood of a group home or financial custodian. He is perfect the way he is. I think the lived reality and looking outside in are two very different things. Particularly when you have Jesus"
X Link 2024-10-14T22:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@TonerousHyus was expecting anywhere from 30% to 40% Black voters. 40% would put Kamala Harris closer to [----] first day IPEV performance. 30% indicates that Trump-leaning counties turned out strongly suggesting that DeKalb's numbers posted earlier were correct. If you can't wait until the morning to see the racial demographic breakdown of the day #1 Georgia vote here's a sneak peek (it includes absentees through this point). ⚪White - 57.52% (189015) ⚫Black - 30.01% (98805) Total ballots cast - [------] Whiter than usual for GA on If you can't wait until the morning to see the racial demographic"
X Link 2024-10-16T02:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Here's a peek at how NC maps are being made. I'm wrapping up the initial geocoding. Every state has its own way of address formatting. Matching records like "211 nc hwy [--] n" to "211 north carolina hwy [--] north" is the least fun and most tedious part. Matched [-------] voters with a history in 2020/2022. Of those matched [-------] active registrations. Of those derived [--------] coordinates (the large number is leniency in coordinate matching). Currently geocoding. Then it'll be onto the daily absentees file which is much faster given it is much smaller and doesn't require cross-file joins."
X Link 2024-10-16T14:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"North Carolina returned ballots status: [----] 🔵 44.2% - 🔴 18.7% [----] 🔵 37.3% - 🔴 27.1% 2022-2024 Change: 🔴 15.2% [----] 🔵 44.8% - 🔴 20.6% [----] 🔵 37.3% - 🔴 27.1% 2020-2024 Change: 🔴 14.0%"
X Link 2024-10-16T15:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Long long story short: I think Trump's loss was legitimate under very unfair COVID-19 rules. Biden should have lost [----] on mail-in votes alone which was the original premise of the JoeIsDone hypothesis - that there is a natural friction which gives mail-in votes a built-in 2% disadvantage. But all that friction (like signature verification) was lifted in [----] and mail-in ballots were virtually 100% accepted. I was unable to find statistical evidence of mass fraud anywhere except Fulton Co GA which was worth about 13K votes. There were spots incidents of ballot harvesting (nursing homes"
X Link 2024-10-16T16:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I need to sleep but here's a preview of where Democratic turnout is occurring in Mecklenburg County North Carolina (where Charlotte is). Darker areas = more turnout relative to 2022"
X Link 2024-10-17T07:52Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Explaining why these granular maps are so important. County-level / state-map tend to capture population migration trends not enthusiasm. (See Palm Beach FL) Higher granularity as shown here allows us to see true demographic trends. And here we see that the city center is not motivated relative to the less densly populated parts. This pattern is consistent with what we've been seeing so far in early voting"
X Link 2024-10-17T13:09Z 48.7K followers, [----] engagements
"He's being blackmailed isn't he"
X Link 2024-10-17T13:42Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@CATSFORTRUMP99 @ChudYork @rabois These are better VBM numbers than when DeSantis won by [--] points. We will see if that is a consistent factor when IPEV rolls in on Monday"
X Link 2024-10-17T21:51Z 854.8K followers, [--] engagements
"I am beginning to think this account is ran by someone who is under the same blackmail as Mark Cuban We just posted this on Truth Social https://t.co/Nh1sN3gbqr We just posted this on Truth Social https://t.co/Nh1sN3gbqr"
X Link 2024-10-17T23:30Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@earlyvotedata @WinWithJMC Let me guess actuary :)"
X Link 2024-10-17T23:52Z 854.8K followers, [---] engagements
"This is an earthquake. Sorry for delay in NC maps. Pulled an all-nighter and just don't have the mind to figure out the best coloring algorithms. But the data is all loaded and ready to refresh first thing tomorrow. I'll share highlights if nothing else. North Carolina Early Vote Wake County: [----] Day [--] - [-----] voters 🔵: [-----] - 54.2% (+37.1) 🔴: [----] - 17.1% 🟡: [----] - 28.4% [----] Day [--] - [-----] voters 🔵: [-----] - 42.9% (+20.5) 🔴: [----] - 22.4% 🟡: [-----] - 34.2% [----] Shift to 🔴 North Carolina Early Vote Wake County: [----] Day [--] - [-----] voters 🔵: [-----] - 54.2% (+37.1) 🔴: [----] - 17.1% 🟡:"
X Link 2024-10-18T01:46Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@EricLDaugh Busted Cope: Democrats won't VBM because of COVID New Cope: Republicans just cannibalizing their own Election Day shares"
X Link 2024-10-18T02:23Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"NC IPEV voters with no 2020/2022 history: 🔴 [-----] 🔵 9923"
X Link 2024-10-18T13:35Z 854.8K followers, 49.4K engagements
"Florida VBM comparisons [----] 🔵 48.5% - 🔴 30.9% [----] 🔵 43.4% - 🔴 37.7% 2022-2024 Change: 🔴 11.9%"
X Link 2024-10-18T14:48Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"On the cannibalization talking point. To that effect here is the percentage of voters in North Carolina who also voted in 2020/2024. 🔵 - 9.83% 🔴 - 8.65% Higher is bad - so it is actually 🔵 that are cannibalizing themselves. Larger IPEV actually heralds larger ED turnout"
X Link 2024-10-18T15:52Z 854.8K followers, 37.6K engagements
"North Carolina IPEV - which percent of 🟡 independent votes are coming from 🔴 counties and which percent are coming from 🔵 counties [----] 🔵 53.0% - 🔴 47.0% [----] 🔵 46.8% - 🔴 53.2% 2020-2024 Change: 🔴 12.3%"
X Link 2024-10-18T18:49Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"North Carolina IPEV - which percent of 🟡 independent votes are coming from 🔴 counties and which percent are coming from 🔵 counties [----] 🔵 53.0% - 🔴 47.0% [----] 🔵 46.8% - 🔴 53.2% 2022-2024 Change: 🔴 12.3%"
X Link 2024-10-18T19:00Z 854.8K followers, 95.2K engagements
"@Lawrence_in_SD ChatGPT is my DBA"
X Link 2024-10-18T19:06Z 854.8K followers, [---] engagements
"@prereworkyorick @TonerousHyus @earlyvotedata IMO - Higher turnout means lower crossovers. Lower turnouts means higher crossovers. My website in [----] projected 2% victory. It was 3%. In [----] I recall projecting 12% victory for DeSantis based on the website numbers. It was 20%"
X Link 2024-10-18T22:54Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@earlyvotedata @chriswithans Obviously he's not seeing the early vote but I think the whole point is that he used to be smart enough to at least check his own assumptions. He just went "yeah Trump is cooked" when he saw the GA IPEV vote stats"
X Link 2024-10-18T23:39Z 854.8K followers, [---] engagements
"Buncombe County got slightly redder in today's voting. Home of Asheville NC. This would be where the most highly motivated Democrats are (affluent white). Yesterday's IPEV 🔵 46.2% - 🔴 17.3% Today's IPEV 🔵 45.3% - 🔴 17.1% 1-day change: 🔴 0.7% Buncombe County NC Day [--] is in. '20 - [-----] D [----] - 44.9% R [----] - 21.1% U [----] - 31.3% '22 - [----] D [----] - 45.6% R [---] - 20.2% U [----] - 31.5% '24 - [----] D [----] - 45.1% R [----] - 17% U [----] - 37.5% #ncpol Buncombe County NC Day [--] is in. '20 - [-----] D [----] - 44.9% R [----] - 21.1% U [----] - 31.3% '22 - [----] D [----] - 45.6% R [---] - 20.2% U [----] - 31.5% '24"
X Link 2024-10-19T00:46Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Uploaded more absentee history files and dates to the database. Here are the Day [--] IPEV statistics for NC for years [----] [----] [----] [----] compared to [----]. [----] 🔵 49.7% - 🔴 25.0% [----] 🔵 36.3% - 🔴 34.7% 2016-2024 Change: 🔴 23.1% [----] 🔵 40.9% - 🔴 30.9% [----] 🔵 36.3% - 🔴 34.7% 2018-2024 Change: 🔴 8.3% [----] 🔵 46.3% - 🔴 27.3% [----] 🔵 36.3% - 🔴 34.7% 2020-2024 Change: 🔴 17.4% [----] 🔵 38.2% - 🔴 33.1% [----] 🔵 36.3% - 🔴 34.7% 2022-2024 Change: 🔴 3.5%"
X Link 2024-10-19T03:39Z 854.8K followers, 11.3K engagements
"@TonerousHyus Oh I think it might be another [----]. Romney had only the high propensity affluent white voter coalition going for him. Just like Harris"
X Link 2024-10-19T03:49Z 854.8K followers, 21.8K engagements
"Today's North Carolina high propensity voting update Voters who voted in the [----] election as a percentage of all voters who also voted in [----] and 2022: 🔵 - 18.64% (+8.81% from yesterday) 🔴 - 16.65% (+8.00% from yesterday) Delta: -1.99% 🔴 Higher percentages imply more cannibalization as fewer high prospensity voters remain for that party"
X Link 2024-10-19T12:46Z 854.8K followers, 99K engagements
"North Carolina IPEV numbers: Day [--] IPEV (non-cumulative) 🔵 33.2% - 🔴 35.2% Day [--] IPEV (non-cumulative) 🔵 36.3% - 🔴 34.7% Day-over-day Changes: 🔴 +0.5% 🔵 +3.1% Fewer NPAs voted"
X Link 2024-10-19T13:03Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"North Carolina IPEV after Day [--] - which percent of 🟡 independent votes are coming from 🔴 counties and which percent are coming from 🔵 counties [----] 🔵 52.5% - 🔴 47.5% [----] 🔵 47.8% - 🔴 52.2% 2022-2024 Change: 🔴 9.4%"
X Link 2024-10-19T13:29Z 854.8K followers, 27K engagements
"@EricLDaugh They do not operate on data"
X Link 2024-10-19T18:34Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Wake County North Carolina got a little bluer today but not much. Typical for weekends. Wake County IPEV Days 1-3 🔵 41.3% - 🔴 22.5% Days 1-2 🔵 41.4% - 🔴 21.9% Day over Day Change: 🔵 -0.6% Wake County 3-Day Cumulative IPEVs comparison to prior years [----] 🔵 52.6% - 🔴 15.0% [----] 🔵 41.4% - 🔴 21.9% 2016-2024 Change: 🔴 18.1% [----] 🔵 46.6% - 🔴 19.3% [----] 🔵 41.4% - 🔴 21.9% 2018-2024 Change: 🔴 7.9% [----] 🔵 49.1% - 🔴 17.8% [----] 🔵 41.4% - 🔴 21.9% 2020-2024 Change: 🔴 11.9% [----] 🔵 42.5% - 🔴 22.4% [----] 🔵 41.4% - 🔴 21.9% 2022-2024 Change: 🔴 0.7% Gaston County NC Day [--] Cumulative"
X Link 2024-10-19T23:51Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Wake County North Carolina got a little bluer today but not much. Typical for weekends. Wake County IPEV Days 1-2 🔵 41.3% - 🔴 22.5% Days 1-3 🔵 41.4% - 🔴 21.9% Day over Day Change: 🔵 -0.6% Wake County 3-Day Cumulative IPEVs comparison to prior years [----] 🔵 52.6% - 🔴 15.0% [----] 🔵 41.4% - 🔴 21.9% 2016-2024 Change: 🔴 18.1% [----] 🔵 46.6% - 🔴 19.3% [----] 🔵 41.4% - 🔴 21.9% 2018-2024 Change: 🔴 7.9% [----] 🔵 49.1% - 🔴 17.8% [----] 🔵 41.4% - 🔴 21.9% 2020-2024 Change: 🔴 11.9% [----] 🔵 42.5% - 🔴 22.4% [----] 🔵 41.4% - 🔴 21.9% 2022-2024 Change: 🔴 0.7% Gaston County NC Day [--] Cumulative"
X Link 2024-10-20T00:13Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"The North Carolina map has been resurrected and will be updated daily. It's meant to be a demographic exploration of North Carolina. The basis for comparison is against [----] votes. It is in "Advantage View" - meaning it'll be bluer the better Harris does in a county relative to [----] and redder the better Trump does in a country relative to [----]. Let's dig in. https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/ https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/"
X Link 2024-10-20T03:59Z 854.8K followers, 14.3K engagements
"The North Carolina map is overall 4.95% advantage Trump (in reality [----] EV was bluer than 2020). This is compared to all [----] EV so may well get redder with time if [----] EV gets redder. [----] was chosen as a basis rather than [----] because VBM dominated [----]. https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina"
X Link 2024-10-20T04:23Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"How did I implement the map Well I took all the demographics and turned a JavaScript integer into a bitfield. Here's what the JSON looks like. Each number is a bitfield that contains some unique combination of gender county ethnicity voting history etc. And maps to a count. https://joeisdone.github.io/json/northcarolina_optimized.json https://joeisdone.github.io/json/northcarolina_optimized.json"
X Link 2024-10-20T04:27Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"A query then simply becomes a single bitwise operation pass over a bunch of numbers"
X Link 2024-10-20T04:30Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Is this accurate I feel this has to be a misprint. Clark County Nevada IPEV 🔴 - [-----] (49.2%) 🟡 - [----] (20.2%) 🔵 - [----] (30.5%) 🔴 +5604 votes (+18.7%) credit @Five_Starrr https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showpublisheddocument/14834/638649704508855471 https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showpublisheddocument/14834/638649704508855471"
X Link 2024-10-20T04:53Z 854.8K followers, 115.8K engagements
"@petebray @Five_Starrr @RalstonReports @JohnRSamuelsen Apparently. I did think it was odd. I guess we ruined their narrative framing"
X Link 2024-10-20T05:14Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Updated California VBM - 13.4% of [----] votes have been turned out. [----] 🔵 50.9% - 🔴 24.4% [----] 🔵 48.4% - 🔴 30.9% 2020-2024 Change: 🔴 9.0%"
X Link 2024-10-20T06:36Z 854.8K followers, 11.7K engagements
"The North Carolina map has been updated at . Today's Advantage Trump tricked down from 4.98% to 4.72% which is normal on a weekend. Reminder the North Carolina map is based on [----] not [----]. The early voting electorate was [--] points bluer than [----]. I expect the Advantage Trump on the map to be close to the actual victory margin. https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/ https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/ https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/ https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/"
X Link 2024-10-20T11:40Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Today's North Carolina high propensity voting update Voters who voted in the [----] election as a percentage of all voters who also voted in [----] and 2022: 🔵 - 22.56% (+3.92% from yesterday) 🔴 - 19.99% (+3.34% from yesterday) Delta: -2.57% 🔴 (-0.58% from yesterday) Higher percentages imply more cannibalization as fewer high prospensity voters remain for that party"
X Link 2024-10-20T11:56Z 854.8K followers, 18.8K engagements
"This is where I tried to calculate it in Florida for [----]. And dropped the entire concept [--] days later. https://joeisdone.github.io/FloridaPrediction.html @DjsokeSpeaking At this point my biggest mistake was the continuance of this PA firewall. Worked great in the last two cycles. Now At the epicenter of a ripe miasma of disinformation. I should just stop using it tbh. I just want this election to be over. https://joeisdone.github.io/FloridaPrediction.html @DjsokeSpeaking At this point my biggest mistake was the continuance of this PA firewall. Worked great in the last two cycles. Now At the"
X Link 2024-10-20T12:14Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Need to call out to the campaign that Helene is impacting the affected WNC counties. They are consistently lighter / bluer in color compared to the eastern parts of the map. https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/ https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/"
X Link 2024-10-20T14:09Z 854.8K followers, 76.3K engagements
"For the new followers - I have a coloring scheme called the Advantage View which is a relative advantage to some basis and projects / calculates the number of votes that Trump is outperforming or trailing by. A deep blue county showing up as red in Advantage View does not mean that county is going to vote Republican. It means that Democrats are underperforming there. The North Carolina map is always in Advantage View because it's meant to be a look at which demographics are overperforming and which are underperforming. Trump is NOT winning Mecklenberg or Wake counties."
X Link 2024-10-20T14:46Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"On the topic of mispredicting [----] - I cannot speak for other pundits. I was not around in [----] except for onboarding the FL map on the very last day. [----] was a strong lesson in not extrapolating individual states' performance to other states. FL and NC went red but both at the time were considered more risky than GA and AZ. GA and AZ of course went blue. So not having enough MI/PA/WI data I've been conservative about projecting a Trump victory even with the current data. Much of early voting data I have seen from [----] particularly in NC has been bluer than in [----]. Florida was an exception."
X Link 2024-10-20T16:21Z 854.8K followers, 10.6K engagements
"North Carolina mail + IPEV totals for the first three days of IPEV [----] versus [----]. [----] 🔵 38.4% - 🔴 31.7% [----] 🔵 34.8% - 🔴 34.3% 2022-2024 Change: 🔴 6.1%"
X Link 2024-10-20T23:33Z 854.8K followers, 13.7K engagements
"If anyone wants to give this a try here's [----] versus [----]. [----] (so far): voting_date_2024 count_r count_d diff_count ------------------+---------+---------+------------ 10/17/2024 [------] [------] [-----] 10/18/2024 [------] [------] [----] 10/19/2024 [-----] [-----] [-----] 2022: voting_date_2022 count_r count_d diff_count ------------------+---------+---------+------------ 10/20/2022 [-----] [-----] [-----] 10/21/2022 [-----] [-----] [-----] 10/22/2022 [----] [-----] [-----] 10/23/2022 [----] [----] [-----] 10/24/2022 [-----] [-----] [-----] 10/25/2022 [-----] [-----] [-----] 10/26/2022 [-----] [-----] [-----] 10/27/2022 [-----] [-----] -5190"
X Link 2024-10-21T00:23Z 854.8K followers, 10.2K engagements
"Consider the basis values are much bigger in [----] than in [----]. So the numbers are that much better percentage-wise"
X Link 2024-10-21T00:25Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"The North Carolina map has been updated and loaded with Sunday's IPEV totals. These totals were quite low and heavily Democratic so the advantage dropped to 3.84%. However for a first Sunday the R's did well relative to 2022: [----] IPEV Sunday [--] 🔵 47.5% - 🔴 21.0% [----] IPEV Sunday [--] 🔵 39.5% - 🔴 26.2% 2022-2024 Change: 🔴 13.2% In prior years this day was the lowest the R advantage got so we hopefully will see it rise from there. https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/ https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/"
X Link 2024-10-21T13:00Z 854.8K followers, 10.1K engagements
"Hi @cbouzy . You didnt take my other bets. So I will make this your easiest bet yet. If Trump wins by double digits in FL you delete your account. If hes lower than 10% Ill delete mine. Deal Should be an easy one if you are the expert"
X Link 2024-10-21T14:37Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"I am calling it here and now. @cbouzy needs to take this bet right now or he will prove himself a hack for once and all. @cbouzy - if Trump wins Florida by double digits you delete your account. If Trump's margin is below 10% I delete mine. Lay it out. @DataRepublican @cbouzy Hes not taking that bet now. IPEV is a bloodbath. @DataRepublican @cbouzy Hes not taking that bet now. IPEV is a bloodbath"
X Link 2024-10-21T15:36Z [----] followers, 13.9K engagements
"In fifteeen minutes the D-R gap closed to just [----]. We might even be at an Advantage Trump by end of day"
X Link 2024-10-21T19:05Z [----] followers, 12.2K engagements
"Kamala Harris will win because Florida is cannibalizing the rest of the United States. That's the first argument I cannot dignify with a SQL query. @DataRepublican FWIW Im not sure this is so much a model question as a vibes question. In a tied national environment for instance DJT winning FL by [--] would probably be a very bad sign for his chances given COVID-era internal migration. @DataRepublican FWIW Im not sure this is so much a model question as a vibes question. In a tied national environment for instance DJT winning FL by [--] would probably be a very bad sign for his chances given"
X Link 2024-10-21T19:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"And there it is. The Republicans have overtaken Democrats in Florida early voting as of 3:30 PM ET"
X Link 2024-10-21T19:31Z 10K followers, 25.4K engagements
"@KemalistGlory @landondfw @earlyvotedata Low turnout is the precursor to crossover. R turnout is not low. The data is more consistent with the crossover voting being on the Democratic side"
X Link 2024-10-21T23:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@EricLDaugh Obviously the low propensity Democrats will vote on Election Day"
X Link 2024-10-22T00:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@AllTheWayBoys @EricLDaugh That makes total sense. Now I'm convinced Harris will win"
X Link 2024-10-22T00:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@gwheeler1 @KemalistGlory @landondfw @earlyvotedata I am getting it directly from the most up to date sources. There is not much room for error there except insofar what they choose to publish"
X Link 2024-10-22T02:26Z 50.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Technically you can check out the Github and do a git diff. It'd be a lot of time to engineer delta at the UX / UI level and UX / UI isn't my expertise. JoeIsDone (obviously) was actually the first time I'd ever even used JavaScript. @DataRepublican Is there a way when we can just see day [--] @DataRepublican Is there a way when we can just see day 2"
X Link 2024-10-22T13:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The North Carolina map has been updated and the Advantage Trump is back up to 4.59%. R's won IPEV yesterday. voting_date_2024 count_r count_d count_n diff_count ------------------+---------+---------+---------+------------ 10/17/2024 [------] [------] [------] [-----] 10/18/2024 [------] [------] [------] [----] 10/19/2024 [-----] [-----] [-----] [-----] 10/20/2024 [-----] [-----] [-----] [------] 10/21/2024 [------] [------] [------] [----] https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/ https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/"
X Link 2024-10-22T13:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@TonerousHyus My model keeps spitting out unbelievable predictions. Maybe I should trust it more"
X Link 2024-10-22T14:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Here's an updated 4/4 analysis for North Carolina. Democrats continue to dominate the high-propensity 4/4 voter group but trail among all the lower-propensity groups. 0/4 voters - people who voted in [----] but did not in [----] [----] [----] [----] 0/4 [----] voters 🔵 29.6% - 🔴 31.0% All [----] voters 🔵 35.0% - 🔴 33.6% 0/4 voter delta: 🔴 2.8% 1/4 voters - people who voted in [----] but voted for one and only one of (2016 [----] [----] 2022) 1/4 [----] voters 🔵 31.2% - 🔴 32.9% All [----] voters 🔵 35.0% - 🔴 33.6% 1/4 voter delta: 🔴 3.1% 2/4 voters - people who voted in [----] but voted for two and only two of"
X Link 2024-10-22T15:01Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@TonerousHyus Wait for Mark Cuban's handlers to tell him to spend money to move it again"
X Link 2024-10-22T15:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"It is not even noon in some parts of Florida and we are already closing on [------] net Republican votes in IPEV. It is abominable that some people actually make a living telling others that Kamala can win Florida. They are setting their followers up for heartbreak"
X Link 2024-10-22T16:54Z 854.8K followers, 15.8K engagements
"The overall Florida map is now at 3.26% Advantage Trump. It started at close to 0% this morning. Loosely translated: If all voting stopped right now and we count them we'd see Trump win Florida by 4%. And that 4% margin happened in just one day that is not even done yet. https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/ https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/"
X Link 2024-10-22T18:05Z 54.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Not every state publishes transparent early voting data. FL is the only one that does it live which is why it gets so much attention. FL and NC are by far the most transparent but NC updates only daily. I might have a (limited) Nevada map up soon if my friend delivers on [----] data. My analysis: NC FL GA NV all look out of reach. PA WI MI - I simply don't have enough EV data to make a call but I am working on experimental machine learning. @DataRepublican Florida is great and all but how are the other states looking The battlegrounds @DataRepublican Florida is great and all but how are the"
X Link 2024-10-22T18:13Z [----] followers, 14.5K engagements
"I cant write a zillion words like Ralston but I feel comfortable in saying that if Rs go into Election Day in AZ and NV with a comfortable EV margin they will win. Fifth grade math means Im not all that worried about independents. 🚨 BREAKING: Nevada Republicans NOW LEAD THE EARLY VOTE with mail included. Absolutely unprecedented in a presidential year. 🔴 Republicans: [-----] 🔵 Democrats: [-----] Data: @MichaelPruser 🚨 BREAKING: Nevada Republicans NOW LEAD THE EARLY VOTE with mail included. Absolutely unprecedented in a presidential year. 🔴 Republicans: [-----] 🔵 Democrats: [-----] Data:"
X Link 2024-10-23T01:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Id love to blow smoke up where it doesnt shine - but the honest truth is that in [----] NC and FL each were considered the states and both were considered to the left of both AZ and GA. I made the correct call in projecting both as Trump wins. I made the incorrect call in extrapolating to other safer states. I simply do not have enough data at this point to cheerlead Trump to a win. He must win one of WI PA MI. And unfortunately these are among the most opaque states when it comes to data"
X Link 2024-10-23T02:08Z [----] followers, 17.1K engagements
"My number one advice to the Trump team would be: tell Nebraska legislature to quickly usher in that change to electoral vote processing. That one district might well make all the difference"
X Link 2024-10-23T02:26Z [----] followers, 16.2K engagements
"The simple truth is - I think Trump has [---] EV locked up. The data is strong. The strongest Ive ever seen it. Full stop. It makes me insanely happy. But I dont have enough data to reliably put other states in the Trump column. No more no less"
X Link 2024-10-23T02:53Z [----] followers, 40.9K engagements
"You can save the @RalstonReports biased analysis and go directly to what my BFF commented from the unpublished data. "I just got the latest drop from NV. Dems are getting fucking roasted there. It isnt improving for them at all." Thank you for being transparent. I know where you are getting this data from now. Thank you for being transparent. I know where you are getting this data from now"
X Link 2024-10-23T04:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"North Carolina map is updated here: Republicans had an amazing day yesterday. Advantage Trump jumped by 🔴 +0.77% to 🔴 5.36%. This was driven by an unprecedented net +9092 🔴 IPEV votes. By comparison GOP did not win a single IPEV day in [----]. https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/ https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/"
X Link 2024-10-23T10:10Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements
"I cannot over-emphasize how disastrous this is. The turnout GAP between black and white voters has exploded in the last [--] days in Georgia. Going from 5.1% on Monday to 8.5% now. Projected to end at 18% White: 61.5% Black: 43.5% The turnout GAP between black and white voters has exploded in the last [--] days in Georgia. Going from 5.1% on Monday to 8.5% now. Projected to end at 18% White: 61.5% Black: 43.5%"
X Link 2024-10-23T23:15Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Assigning 🟡 by county's [----] Trump/Biden split and assuming no crossovers Trump would now be projected to win North Carolina today if all votes stopped. 🔵 49.7% - 🔴 50.3% 🔴 +1.6% This is despite 🔵 holding onto a [-----] lead on EV (not for long at this rate)"
X Link 2024-10-24T02:13Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Holy. I just checked and the R-D gap is 🔴 7.20% on overall early voting. Here's why that's amazing: [----] Total EV : [-------] R 🔴 EV : [-------] (43.2%) D 🔵 EV : [-------] (36.8%) R - D gap: 🔴 6.4% This exceeds 2022's early voting gap with almost two weeks left to go https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/ https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/ https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/ https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/"
X Link 2024-10-24T02:24Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Yeah easily. I went after cbouzy when IPEV started trying to get him to agree to a bet to delete his account if Trump won by double digits and if not then I'd delete mine. Not taking that bet was the only smart analysis he's done. @DataRepublican Are we going to get Trump +10 in Florida @DataRepublican Are we going to get Trump +10 in Florida"
X Link 2024-10-24T02:30Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Assigning 🟡 by county's [----] Trump/Biden split and assuming no crossovers Trump would now be projected to win North Carolina today if all votes stopped. 🔵 49.7% - 🔴 50.3% 🔴 +0.6% This is despite 🔵 holding onto a [-----] lead on EV (not for long at this rate)"
X Link 2024-10-24T02:51Z 854.8K followers, 10.2K engagements
"I like the republican system of government which the Founding Fathers set up but I am not a fan of the Republican party per se. @DataRepublican Random question what does (small r) mean @DataRepublican Random question what does (small r) mean"
X Link 2024-10-24T04:36Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@_chstp I mean Elon Musk reformed X by first laying off what 80% of its engineers"
X Link 2024-10-24T04:40Z 854.8K followers, [---] engagements
"In North Carolina 🔴Republicans are leading 🔵Democrats in IPEV among the 18-25 set. Including overall VBM the gap is only 1.30% and likely will close soon. https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/ @DataRepublican Yeah this isnt even close to correct. You methodology is absurd. At best we dont know. But a probably a more accurate picture is R: 90T-8H D:95H-2T I:55H-45T. There is zero reason to believe he is doing better than Biden among Is given they are even younger than lasttime https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/ @DataRepublican Yeah this isnt even close to correct. You"
X Link 2024-10-24T05:31Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Debunking the "independents will split for Harris" arguments: I did a spot check of the same heuristic that had Trump winning Nevada independents and found it would have overestimated Biden's votes in Clark County by 🔵 +42908. That's significant In [----] Joe Biden won Clark County - 🔵 [------] votes to 🔴 [------] for Trump. That's 🔵 54.8% - 🔴 45.2%. In Clark County in [----] the turnout was 🔵 [------] D 🔴 [------] R 🟡 [------] I. Under the JoeIsDone's Florida Map methodology we assign I's a split based on the R/D turnout or to calculate R=308386/(406088+308386). Which assigns 🔵 56.8% D-🔴 43.1%R"
X Link 2024-10-24T06:38Z 854.8K followers, 19.4K engagements
"Good morning Mitt Romney wishes to remind you that you cannot apply polling party identification to party registration in early voting. North Carolina map has been updated and will be live on a few minutes"
X Link 2024-10-24T11:42Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"HOLY . NORTH CAROLINA"
X Link 2024-10-24T11:45Z 854.8K followers, 19.6K engagements
"Yesterday Rs won North Carolina IPEV by 🔴 +14379. The Advantage Map at jumped to 6.14% 🔴 Trump. voting_date_2024 count_r count_d count_n diff_count ------------------+---------+---------+---------+------------ 10/17/2024 [------] [------] [------] [-----] 10/18/2024 [------] [------] [------] [----] 10/19/2024 [-----] [-----] [-----] [-----] 10/20/2024 [-----] [-----] [-----] [------] 10/21/2024 [------] [------] [------] [----] 10/22/2024 [------] [------] [------] [----] 10/23/2024 [------] [-----] [-----] [-----] https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/ https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/ https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/"
X Link 2024-10-24T11:51Z 854.8K followers, 13.5K engagements
"Also you don't need to "run out" of 🔴 Republicans to maintain enormous 🔴 R - 🔵 D gaps up to Election Day. Democrats 🔵 simply need to slow down more than Republicans 🔴. That's why North Carolina was able to post a 🔴+14379 gain in IPEV despite both parties slowing down. This is fifth grade math: https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/1848395170167091571 https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/1848395170167091571"
X Link 2024-10-24T11:57Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"There's a divergence in R/D totals on the North Carolina map. I'm chasing it down now"
X Link 2024-10-24T12:20Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"The map at is updated and now reflects Republicans winning EV. The issue affected only party registration for [----] voters. The script had been prioritizing the official voter roll party registration but it seems large enough numbers of voters decided to switch parties. The corrected numbers seem to be more favorable to Republicans thus far. https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/ https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/ https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/ https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/"
X Link 2024-10-24T12:39Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Updated 4/4 Analysis for North Carolina. This one is a bit different - I constrained voter registration year to be on or before [----]. This would eliminate new arrivals or younger voters. Among this group who also voted in [----] the registration edge is split 🔵 36.0% - 🔴 35.0% - a Democratic advantage. However this was punitive on the lowest propensity totals presumably because of voter roll purging. Consequently I don't know if I would take either the 0/4 or 1/4 numbers as significant; both were less than 10K. 0/4 voters: 🔵 27.8% - 🔴 33.3% */4 voters: 🔵 36.0% - 🔴 35.0% 0/4 voter lead: 🔴"
X Link 2024-10-24T13:38Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@earlyvotedata 10% of R's will go to Harris no crossover from D's and Harris wins I's by [--] points. Also D's will widen the gap from here now on because Republicans are running out of votes. All of this adds up to a Harris landslide not seen since [----]. How did I do"
X Link 2024-10-24T15:31Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Unfortunately seems like VBM dumped there and set it back 1K ballots. Will miss the 1PM deadline but it's still steadily closing"
X Link 2024-10-24T16:28Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
""coin toss" I think it's worth anchoring more to the fact that Biden had Democrats in a very poor position and getting things roughly in the range of toss-up is as much as could reasonably have been hoped for given how he played his hand. I think it's worth anchoring more to the fact that Biden had Democrats in a very poor position and getting things roughly in the range of toss-up is as much as could reasonably have been hoped for given how he played his hand"
X Link 2024-10-24T16:58Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"FL map overperformed Advantage Trump in [----]. NC map underperformed Advantage Trump in [----]. However NC map this time around starts with a "blue" handicap relative to [----] because it is based on bluer [----] midterm votes rather than [----] Presidential Election. So I think the bias is corrected. I like to be biased in favor of 🔵 not 🔴"
X Link 2024-10-24T17:00Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Reliable sources confirm thousands of mail ballots in Broward County Florida were processed overnight. This surely will help Dems in Florida. They have a solid mail lead there now -- 74K to 28K bringing up the Democrats' VBM firewall to [------]. Democrats have yet to return [------] ballots. Numbers when I have them. Reliable sources confirm thousands of mail ballots in Washoe County (Reno) were processed overnight. There had been a substantial backlog. This will almost surely help Dems not sure yet how much. Dems have a solid mail lead there now -- 14K to 10K. Numbers when I have them. Reliable"
X Link 2024-10-24T17:52Z 854.8K followers, 25.8K engagements
"I pushed a manual update early - as of 2:23 PM ET Miami-Dade County has officially flipped Republican by [--] votes. This is including both IPEV and VBM. https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/ https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/"
X Link 2024-10-24T18:29Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@DocKilmer Yeah. It looks like the linear trend of 100K net will continue today at least. I thought for sure it'd stall today"
X Link 2024-10-24T18:39Z 854.8K followers, [---] engagements
"And . the grand total of the drop was . 🔵 D+453. https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showpublisheddocument/14904/ https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showpublisheddocument/14904/"
X Link 2024-10-24T20:08Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Modeled Nevada turnout as of 10/24/2024; includes the Washoe dump. Assigning NPAs by R/D turnout (which is actually pro-Democratic): 🔴 R : [------] 🔵 D : [------] 🟡 NPA assigned as 🔴 R : [-----] 🟡 NPA assigned as 🔵 D : [-----] Modeled EV: [------] 🔴 R - [------] 🔵 D; Difference: 🔴 R +22493 Percentage-wise: 52.7% 🔴 R - 47.3% 🔵 D; Difference 🔴 R +5.4%"
X Link 2024-10-24T20:32Z 854.8K followers, 25.8K engagements
"This is currently much redder than NC EV"
X Link 2024-10-24T20:34Z 854.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@chompyfone I invite everyone to jump in and get involved"
X Link 2024-10-24T23:59Z 854.8K followers, [---] engagements
"@gwheeler1 @earlyvotedata He's referring to the number of weekdays this week where Republicans win IPEV in NC. @TonerousHyus called 5/5 which I thought was optimistic given R's won only one day last week. But @TonerousHyus is much better at interpreting second derivatives than me it seems"
X Link 2024-10-25T01:23Z 854.8K followers, [---] engagements
"So basically it means the R overperformance in Nevada voting is not explained by demographic changes but is a genuine shift of the electorate to the right I don't think this is the flex you think this is. The age of mail ballot voters in Clark County NV is tracking almost exactly the age on the same day in [----]. https://t.co/bQv8UzqRJw The age of mail ballot voters in Clark County NV is tracking almost exactly the age on the same day in [----]. https://t.co/bQv8UzqRJw"
X Link 2024-10-25T04:06Z 854.8K followers, 22.6K engagements
"@3scoops3scoops By absolute numbers of course but percentage-wise it's redder. 1-day change is 🔴+0.7%"
X Link 2024-10-25T04:30Z 854.8K followers, [---] engagements
"North Carolina map has been updated and I'm losing my mind at the 7.23% Advantage Trump. and wow look at these turnout differences really starting to see divergences. 🔵 D turnout at 92.27% of [----] EV 🔴 R turnout at 113.89% of [----] EV And only 1.68% separate the registration turnout. (D have a slight registration edge) At this rate 🔵 D will have to turn in an unprecedented Election Day overperformance. Which . hasn't happened in any recent year. https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina"
X Link 2024-10-25T11:13Z 854.8K followers, 47.1K engagements
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