@DanielTNiles Avatar @DanielTNiles Dan Niles

Dan Niles posts on X about fed, inflation, ai, $googl the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance 63.79% stocks 43.1% technology brands 31.03% countries 13.79% cryptocurrencies 4.31% fashion brands 3.45% social networks 3.45% financial services 3.45% products 1.72% currencies 1.72%

Social topic influence fed 28.45%, inflation #2788, ai 14.66%, $googl 11.21%, $amzn 11.21%, $aapl 10.34%, $msft 8.62%, china 8.62%, q4 8.62%, fund 7.76%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @cnbc @cvpayne @cnbctechcheck @saraeisen @deebosa @mariabartiromo @lizclaman @hakumai69835915 @davidfaber @foxnews @carlquintanilla @jprecept @jonfortt @tomhoenig @willkoulouris @sullycnbc @seagoat73 @jp_money_95630 @squawkcnbc @riskreversal

Top assets mentioned Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Apple, Inc. (AAPL) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Intel Corporation (INTC) Metadium (META) Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) Netflix Inc (NFLX) JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Nike Inc (NKE) Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) Boeing Co (BA) Jabil, Inc. (JBL) Impinj, Inc. Common Stock (PI) Target Corporation (TGT) Bitcoin (BTC) Snap, Inc. (SNAP) Walmart, Inc. (WMT) Stacks (STX) FedEx Corporation (FDX)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Santa came last wk w/ S&P +1.4% Mag7 +1.3% & my AI index +1.6% w/ $GOOG complex +3.3% & OpenAI complex +0.7%. But is gold/silver +4%/+18% despite recent core CPI the lowest since Mar-2021 sniffing out an issue for [----] My goal in the near-term is to hopefully enjoy the last [--] trading days of the Santa Claus rally. Over the full [--] trading days the S&P is on average +1.3% and up over 70% of the time. Over the first two days it gained 0.3% already. As I think about [----] I plan on focusing on what is right in front of me with the expectations that it will be very choppy but with an upward bias"
X Link 2025-12-28T19:40Z 121K followers, 64.2K engagements

"More Details on My [----] Top [--] Picks & Outlook for a Choppy [----] The biggest positive entering [----] is the continuation of easy money policies. The stock market has seen strong appreciation over the past three calendar years with the Fed stopping the most aggressive rate hikes in over [--] years in [----] then cutting in [----] and again in late [----]. The S&P has seen price appreciation of 78% over the past three calendar years as a results despite EPS only growing by 20%. The Fed started QE light in December of [----] and a new Fed Chairman will be appointed in May of [----] who will want to cut rates"
X Link 2026-01-04T21:10Z 121K followers, 94.1K engagements

"On @CNBC 11am EST w/ @davidfaber @saraeisen on [----] outlook. I think it will be choppy given AI trade is getting more discerning as we enter yr [--] but new Fed chief in May will want to cut by at least [---] bps keeping the easy money flowing. Also talking Top5 Picks for 2026"
X Link 2025-12-31T14:47Z 121K followers, 163.2K engagements

"Going into Mag7 earnings which start next week it is important to remember that [--] of the [--] underperformed the S&P last year and without GOOGL +65% the average would have been below the S&P return for the other six. This year [--] of the [--] are down YTD and as a group are down 0.5%. This compares to a 1.0% gain in the S&P 3.8% gain in the EW S&P and 7.5% gain in the R2K. There has been a distinct shift from concentrated to diversified and large to small since late October as investors started to differentiate between winners and losers in AI. It would not surprised me to see that continue. For the"
X Link 2026-01-25T21:40Z 121K followers, 88K engagements

"The shift since late October continued in the month of January from large to small (Mag7 +0.4% R2K +5.3%) & concentrated to equal weight (S&P +1.4% EW S&P 3.4%). From 10/29/25-1/31/26: Mag7 -2.3% R2K +5.2% S&P +0.7% and EW S&P +5.2%. Big picture the Fed started QE light in December tax benefits from the OBBB are in Q1 and newly nominated Fed chair Warsh will want more aggressive rate cuts than current chair Powell. I would expect the current year to start off on a solid note driven by easy money policies as result. However I continue to believe that diversification is important and that there"
X Link 2026-02-01T20:47Z 121K followers, 60.9K engagements

"The G7s Bank of England said to expect a response that reflects a combination of fiscal measures & central bank initiatives.across jurisdictions Only Fed cut after a 4.6% S&P surge Hope other gov. actions overnight. Poor expectations setting but still up from lowsfor now After a rare conference call G-7 finance minister only pledge to fight Covid-19 but take no action IMO not what investors were looking for when they pushed S&P up 4.6% yesterday. Markets have a way of testing the resolve of central bankers & investors when they are disappointed After a rare conference call G-7 finance"
X Link 2020-03-03T23:30Z 121K followers, [--] engagements

"Satori II is now available to meet growing demand from Accredited Investors for whom we did not have an investment vehicle. The fund has a cap of [--] investors & investment documents for the fund must be submitted prior to June [--]. Visit to get more details. http://danniles.com http://danniles.com"
X Link 2020-05-20T18:52Z 121K followers, [--] engagements

"Strong jobs # but slightly lower AHE than expected implies goldilocks scenario of strong economy w/ declining services inflation. But implications of higher for longer inflation/Fed mattering more for now for bonds/S&P. Still believe ST S&P rallies from oversold on any catalyst"
X Link 2023-10-06T14:46Z 121K followers, 62K engagements

"On @SquawkCNBC shortly at 8:45am ET. We will be discussing $AAPL our favorites in the Magnificent [--] and why we are optimistic about a rally through year-end. We are still cautious longer-term & watching developments in the Middle East closely"
X Link 2023-11-03T12:30Z 121K followers, 43.8K engagements

"On Oct 26th posted that shorts now 1% of assets. Following this recent 10%+ surge in S&P to overbought conditions getting defensive to protect against short-term pullback. Then believe we get one more FOMO/Santa rally before YE w/ an up December. HUGE Space at [--] PM EST today We have @DanielTNiles joining us at [--] PM EST. HUGE Space at [--] PM EST today We have @DanielTNiles joining us at [--] PM EST"
X Link 2023-11-28T17:21Z 121K followers, 105.1K engagements

"While I started the year with cash as my leading pick and no Magnificent [--] names on April 7th I did a CNBC interview that was titled Might see a short-term bounce but still cautious long-term says investor Dan Niles. On April 9th the [--] day pushback on tariffs as President Trump became concerned enough by the bond market and fears of a recession helped drive a one day 9.5% rally. Since then hopes of [--] trade deals in [--] days has helped maintain the optimism. The S&P is now down just 6% from the beginning of the year and 3% from the day before Liberation Day. But does the political climate"
X Link 2025-04-28T00:55Z 121K followers, 154.7K engagements

"Last wk S&P +1.9% Mag7 +2.5% R2K +2.5%. Wknd had good trade developments. Looking for mkt melt up to continue this wk driven by likely: 1) Fed cut & QT stop on Wed 2) solid earnings in aggregate from [--] of Mag7 on Wed&Thurs (25% of S&P) 3) positive Trump mtg w/ Xi on Thurs"
X Link 2025-10-26T23:35Z 121K followers, 170.1K engagements

"Events last week were roughly as I expected. 1) The Fed did cut w/ QT ending on 12/1. But a December rate cut was "not a foregone conclusion" which was the biggest surprise to me. The Fed up until now has called any upcoming inflation driven by tariffs transitory. End of the government shutdown with official data being produced again probably gives them the air cover they need to justify continuing cuts. But this rate cut pushback drove down the R2K by 1.4% for the wk. This index has a greater percentage of unprofitable companies and is therefore more sensitive to rate cuts versus their"
X Link 2025-11-03T00:04Z 121K followers, 192.8K engagements

"Last wk S&P -0.6% Mag7 -2.0% AI index -3.7% but EW S&P +0.7% & R2K +1.2%. Fed starting QE light sparked S&P rally on 12/10. S&P edged higher on 12/11 despite $ORCL -11% on poor results but was hit hard on 12/12 w/ $AVGO -11% despite ostensibly beat & raise results. The $GOOGL related companies declined 4% last wk driven by the decline in Broadcom while the OpenAI related companies declined 7% driven by Oracle. The reaction to the Broadcom results were particularly disheartening following the lowered bar set by Oracle results the prior day. Oracle 1) missed total revs & cloud expectations for"
X Link 2025-12-14T22:46Z 121K followers, 55.8K engagements

"@jprecept @CNBC @davidfaber @SaraEisen Zebra Tech $ZBRA is involved with RFID mainly as the market share leader in readers but RFID is only a mid-single digit % of total revs for them"
X Link 2025-12-31T20:06Z 121K followers, [----] engagements

"The shift since late October continued this past wk from large to small (Mag7 -2.1% R2K +2.0%) & concentrated to equal weight (S&P -0.4% EW S&P 0.7%). From 10/29/25-1/16/26: Mag7 -4.2% R2K +7.8% S&P +0.7% and EW S&P +5.7%. I previewed last Sunday (1/11/26) that I was concerned about the unofficial start of earnings seasons with the big banks especially given the momentum coming in with the $KBWB +29% in [----] and the President's call for a 10% interest rate cap on credit cards for a year. Unfortunately this turned out to be the case with the $KBWB -1.7% last week and the financial subsector"
X Link 2026-01-19T20:35Z 121K followers, 44K engagements

"Zoom presentation on 6/30 at 4:30 PM EST on my macro view & investment ideas w/ [--] minutes of Q&A for qualified purchasers and/or accredited registered investors. Current and prospective investors in the Satori Fund are welcome. To register: https://invest.thesatorifund.com/ https://invest.thesatorifund.com/"
X Link 2021-06-28T20:34Z 121K followers, [--] engagements

"I am holding a conference call on 9/29 4:00 PM EST for qualified purchasers and/or accredited registered investors. I will give an overview of the economic landscape likely Fed action inflation outlook & investment ideas followed by Q&A. To register: http://invest.thesatorifund.com/Register http://invest.thesatorifund.com/Register"
X Link 2021-09-28T19:01Z 121K followers, [--] engagements

"This past wk did not go as I expected. A gap lower on Tuesday and 1.2% decline for the day for no apparent reason (this always concerns me when valuations are this high) was followed by more selling for the rest of the wk driven by: 1) OpenAI talking about a government backstop calling into question the nearly $1.5 trillion of infrastructure commitments they have made which drove down my AI index 5.9% for the wk the Mag7 by 3.2% and the S&P by 1.6% 2) stagflation concerns with the most Challenger job cuts in October since [----] with the highest ISM services prices paid number in three years 3)"
X Link 2025-11-08T00:31Z 121K followers, 167.5K engagements

"Last wk easy money hopes increased with odds of a 12/10 Fed rate cut moving from 45% to 70% on comments by a Fed governor & 2) for AI optimism $NVDA beat CQ2 consensus rev by $2B & guided CQ3 $3B above. But S&P/Mag7/AI index was -1.9%/-2.4%/-6.5%. These optimistic developments seemed to be outweighed by increasing doubts on OpenAIs ability to fund their $1.4 trillion of infrastructure commitments over the next [--] years. $GOOGL seemed to be a big part of the reason. On 11/18 Google released Gemini [--] which outperformed ChatGPT [--] on most benchmarks. Gemini [--] was also immediately available in the"
X Link 2025-11-24T03:27Z 121K followers, 102.5K engagements

"While on the surface today was a horrible day for the AI names with both the $GOOGL & OpenAI complex down 4%; there were some signs of at least a potential short-term bottom. $JBL was up 2% on a beat & raise qtr while $MSFT which owns 27% of OpenAI was down only 0.1% despite the continuing bludgeoning of OpenAI related names $ORCL and $SFTBY both down 4-5%. If $MU a leading high-bandwidth memory supplier manages to rally tomorrow in response to spectacular guidance (EPS guided 76% above consensus and revs guided 31% above) this may be at least a short-term tradeable bottom for the market into"
X Link 2025-12-18T00:13Z 121K followers, 136.1K engagements

"Last wk 1) AI related $MU +10% nxt day on earnings (unlike $AVGO $NVDA which sold off hard) 2) OpenAI raising money at $830B valuation 3) core CPI surprising at lowest since Mar-2021 put themes driving this mkt for past [--] yrs back on optimistic footing: easy money & AI. I posted on Wednesday there were some signs of at least a potential short-term bottom. $JBL was up 2% on a beat & raise qtr while $MSFT which owns 27% of OpenAI was down only 0.1% despite the continuing bludgeoning of OpenAI related names $ORCL and $SFTBY both down 4-5%. I was fortunate and this indeed turned out to be the"
X Link 2025-12-21T19:58Z 121K followers, 86K engagements

"My [----] Top [--] Picks have defense & offense: $CSCO Keep Riding the AI wave corporate upgrade cycle $BA I love big backlogs I cannot lie & ramping cash flow $NKE Just Do It-Turnaround w/ depressed multiple & EPS $AAPL Better Late than Never- AI enabled foldable iPhone $PI The time has come- RFID tech at an inflection point I will put out a more detailed write-up on each name this Sunday as well as the overall positive and negatives I see for the market as a whole. I wanted to keep this post shorter given my @CNBC interview on New Years Eve with @davidfaber and @saraeisen got into each name in a"
X Link 2026-01-01T19:15Z 121K followers, 268.6K engagements

"S&P celebrating NY w/ +1.8% gain in [--] trading days & shrugged off Venezuela. The broad mkt was even better. EW S&P +3.2% & R2K +5.7% driven by easy money as GSEs ordered to buy $200B MBS to lower mortgage rates. Expect more consumer targeted stimulus policies till mid-terms. This performance is even more impressive when considering the Magnificent [--] are down YTD and only the impressive gains by $GOOGL +5.0% and $AMZN +7.2% have kept that group up 0.5% on average YTD. Particularly notable is the 0.9% YTD decline in $NVDA despite the bullish comments by the company at CES including the CEO"
X Link 2026-01-11T22:19Z 121K followers, 50.8K engagements

"Demand was solid over the Cyber5 driving the $XRT (retail ETF) up 2.2% over the past wk. My AI index also rose 1.9% powered by the OpenAI names +4.8% while Google related +0.8%. This wk has: 1) Fed 12/10 (25 bps cut but numerous dissents likely) 2) $ORCL 12/10 (expecting great results but will it matter w/ OpenAI overhang) 3) $AVGO 12/11 (expecting solid results with hyperscaler demand for ASICs driving results.) Normally I would be very long equities given the normal seasonal strength through year-end with that continuing through January. However the stock market has shown how sensitive it"
X Link 2025-12-07T22:40Z 121K followers, 69.1K engagements

"It was an eventful wknd surrounding Greenland following Venezuela earlier in the yr. Looking forward to discussing whether that disrupts my belief in a solid start to the yr due to easy money fiscal & monetary policies w/ @cvpayne @FoxBusiness 2:15PM EST today"
X Link 2026-01-20T16:35Z 121K followers, 47K engagements

"The shift since late October continued last week from large to small (Mag7 -4.5% R2K +2.2%) & concentrated to equal weight (S&P -0.1% EW S&P 2.1%). From 10/29/25-2/6/26: Mag7 -6.8% R2K +7.5% S&P +0.6% and EW S&P +7.4%. Big picture the Fed started QE light in December tax benefits from the OBBB are in Q1 and newly nominated Fed chair Warsh will want more aggressive rate cuts than current chair Powell though he is likely to be more conservative on the balance sheet. I would expect easy money policies as result to be supportive of the overall market in the near-term. However I continue to"
X Link 2026-02-08T22:49Z 121K followers, 41.6K engagements

"2026 Top5 Pick $PI after pre-announcing a better Q4 than expected on 1/13 before presenting at an investor conference the next day formally reported. Their Q1 guide was a huge miss: rev/EPS mid-pts $72.5M/10.5c consensus $90.5M/39c. Given the positive pre-announcement the guide is a huge disappointment. Now the question becomes whether my core thesis is broken and should I remove it from my Top5 Picks. It unfortunately has happened to me before. In the case of Impinj I do not think so. The issues seemed to be caused by a confluence of order timing ongoing retailer inventory burndown product"
X Link 2026-02-06T05:02Z 121K followers, 34.2K engagements

"$TSM reported rev for Jan was +37% y/y. This is an acceleration from Dec +20% Nov +24% and Oct +17%. Following AI hyperscaler capex estimates following Q4 earnings being revised from 25-30% to 60% for CY26 this is supportive of $NVDA & $AVGO CQ4 earnings results coming soon"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:21Z 121K followers, 46.8K engagements

"W/ no rate hikes since [----] ECB today endorsed [--] bps raise in July & potential for [--] in Sept. Optimists thought this was discounted. But $EZU (Eurozone ETF) -20% already from ATHs & down another 4% today. Most CBs joining inflation to become the enemy of PE ratios globally"
X Link 2022-06-09T18:52Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Covering shorts to get close to neutral. 40% of our technical metrics oversold. Prefer 50%+ to get aggressively long. Also a large asset manager bankruptcy is possible w/ bonds & stocks both crushed for 1st time since 70s/80s. $BTC another risk to aggressive funds. Love cash. $TGT cut [--] wks after guiding on shift in consumer spend from pandemic to re-opening categories. $MSFT cut on FX [--] wks after guiding. Now $INTC effectively cut [--] wks after guiding on macro. Expect more to follow. Sold longs bought for this expected S&P rally & added shorts $TGT cut [--] wks after guiding on shift in consumer"
X Link 2022-06-13T19:30Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Interview w/ @CarlQuintanilla @JonFortt @dee_bosa at 11AM ET on: 1) S&P correlation/addiction to Fed policy 2) the big positioning changes in longs & shorts necessary to make money 3) upcoming Q2 earnings w/ $TGT $MSFT $INTC negative guidance foreshadowing the ugliness to come"
X Link 2022-06-16T13:24Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"As discussed @CNBCTechCheck 6/16 covered more shorts given selloff intensifying w/ 44% of our technical metrics oversold by EOD. Credit metrics firming today ($JNK $HYG CDS) so buying stocks. Have moved from neutral to net long for nxt bear mkt rally. LT believe S&P down 30-50% Covering shorts to get close to neutral. 40% of our technical metrics oversold. Prefer 50%+ to get aggressively long. Also a large asset manager bankruptcy is possible w/ bonds & stocks both crushed for 1st time since 70s/80s. $BTC another risk to aggressive funds. Love cash. Covering shorts to get close to neutral."
X Link 2022-06-17T17:55Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"For those that want more information on the topics I am going to discuss today at 10am & 3PM ET on @SundayFutures w/ @MariaBartiromo such as recent central bank action the economy & current investment landscape you can find more information at: https://www.danniles.com/articles/2022-06-18 Tomorrow join us #LIVE @SundayFutures @FoxNews 10am et @mikepompeo @SecPompeo @RepMikeTurner @MayraFlores2022 @DanielTNiles @tom_hoenig former pres of @KansasCityFed https://t.co/LOzfuKBU9A https://www.danniles.com/articles/2022-06-18 Tomorrow join us #LIVE @SundayFutures @FoxNews 10am et @mikepompeo"
X Link 2022-06-19T13:35Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Interview w/ @MariaBartiromo & the brilliant @tom_hoenig. He was the sole dissenter at the [--] Fed meetings in [----] against easy money policies he feared would eventually drive inflation. While I expect a NT rally I still believe S&P down 30-50% ultimately. https://video.foxnews.com/v/6308172842112 https://video.foxnews.com/v/6308172842112"
X Link 2022-06-20T21:26Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"$NKE outlook cut on known issues: FX China lockdowns hurting demand elevated supply chain costs. Stock up 3% early & now down 5% & near [--] wk low. This is a warning sign if you think bad news is discounted going into Q2 earnings season especially after recent bear mkt rally"
X Link 2022-06-28T17:29Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Buying $XOP $XLE & $OIH. WTI at $95. Extreme St. targets of $200 post Russia invasion are now $50 in recession. But structural supply issues of underinvestment remain w/ China likely to stimulate their economy before National Congress in November. Get aggressive $90. There is an adage that the cure for high oil prices is high oil prices. It slows economic growth increases recession risk & reduces oil demand. We are removing $USO from our [----] Top5 Picks following a gain of 39% YTD which tracks WTI Oil prices which are at $111 up 86% y/y There is an adage that the cure for high oil prices is"
X Link 2022-07-13T17:34Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Removing $GOOGL from Top5 Picks. Unlikely to outperform S&P given 2/3rds of total ad spend online now vs 12% during 2008/09 recession when total industry ad spend fell 23% over 2yrs. Also ad share gains at TikTok $AMZN $AAPL & soon $NFLX. Like cash. http://danniles.com/articles/2022-07-13 http://danniles.com/articles/2022-07-13"
X Link 2022-07-13T23:28Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"$AMZN rev +44% y/y in Q4:20/Q1:21 from pandemic benefits. After year of slowing growth +6% forecast for Q2:22. Prime Day however 18% growth vs last yr of 8%. Bought $AMZN & pairs well against internet ad related shorts. Also grew retail share in 08/09 recession growing 28-29%"
X Link 2022-07-15T15:38Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"WTI at $102 up 7% in [--] trading days; took some profits. I try to tweet high probability ideas to generate returns or that can outperform S&P so I can hedge. But I trim positions based on high stdev moves up or when they go wrong to minimize losses. Managing risk key to LT profits Buying $XOP $XLE & $OIH. WTI at $95. Extreme St. targets of $200 post Russia invasion are now $50 in recession. But structural supply issues of underinvestment remain w/ China likely to stimulate their economy before National Congress in November. Get aggressive $90. Buying $XOP $XLE & $OIH. WTI at $95. Extreme St."
X Link 2022-07-19T01:30Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Talking w/ @SaraEisen at 3PM ET about 1) some of the big changes we made to our shorts (covered some internet ad shorts) & longs last Friday (sold $AMZN) following $SNAP disaster & 2) some of the underappreciated risks (cloud services) into big tech earnings later this week. Removing $GOOGL from Top5 Picks. Unlikely to outperform S&P given 2/3rds of total ad spend online now vs 12% during 2008/09 recession when total industry ad spend fell 23% over 2yrs. Also ad share gains at TikTok $AMZN $AAPL & soon $NFLX. Like cash. https://t.co/ikd8ae0HxF Removing $GOOGL from Top5 Picks. Unlikely to"
X Link 2022-07-25T16:01Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Guest hosting w/ @dee_bosa on @CNBC from 6-7PM ET tonight. Discussion on: 1) recent tech earnings 2) have we seen THE bottom 3) the Fed inflation & valuations & 4) importance of risk management & position sizing around earnings- $AMZN $MSFT $GOOGL 5) Chips Act- $INTC"
X Link 2022-07-29T18:13Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"On Friday the amazing @dee_bosa w/ an assist from me tried to fill the shoes of the incomparable @jimcramer who has inspired so many to start investing over past [--] years of MadMoney w/ his blend of entertainment humor & market wisdom. Writeup of our discussion coming soon"
X Link 2022-07-31T23:08Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Here are the details around my thoughts and the topics we discussed. https://www.danniles.com/articles/2022-07-31 Guest hosting w/ @dee_bosa on @CNBC from 6-7PM ET tonight. Discussion on: 1) recent tech earnings 2) have we seen THE bottom 3) the Fed inflation & valuations & 4) importance of risk management & position sizing around earnings- $AMZN $MSFT $GOOGL 5) Chips Act- $INTC. https://www.danniles.com/articles/2022-07-31 Guest hosting w/ @dee_bosa on @CNBC from 6-7PM ET tonight. Discussion on: 1) recent tech earnings 2) have we seen THE bottom 3) the Fed inflation & valuations & 4)"
X Link 2022-08-01T14:17Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Hope: Tech estimates have been kitchen sinked & are now beatable. Fact: $MU guided Aug qtr rev 21% below consensus just over a month ago & today negatively pre-announced. Memory is in most tech hardware & beyond so real-time economic gauge. Demand is still slowing. After guiding rev/EPS 7/10% above consensus for May qtr on 3/29 & sounding positive at their investor day on 5/12 $MU guided August qtr rev/EPS 21%/37% below consensus. Another sign of how quickly demand for goods benefitting from pandemic including PC & Smartphone is falling. After guiding rev/EPS 7/10% above consensus for May qtr"
X Link 2022-08-09T15:08Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Fed Summary of Economic Projections has rate hikes to 3.8% exiting [----] while Fed futures markets have rate cuts and 3.23%. Expect Powell at Jackson Hole mtg this wk to push back against repeating the Burns Blunder. Dont Fight the Fed or Fundamentals despite bullish technicals"
X Link 2022-08-22T13:32Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Good discussion on @CNBCTechCheck about: 1) our worries about future enterprise demand 2) why valuations need to be considered when evaluating further downside 3) focusing on total S&P earnings versus individual company reports 4) the long path ahead for the Fed. Let's get to the long and short of it 📈📉 Satori Fund Founder @DanielTNiles has been picking up $AMZN and $WMT in hopes that they gain market share during a potential recession placing bets against names in the enterprise space. https://t.co/vtKgq33PnX Let's get to the long and short of it 📈📉 Satori Fund Founder @DanielTNiles has"
X Link 2022-08-24T00:36Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Powell channels Volcker: While higher interest rates slower growth & softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation they will also bring some pain to households & businesses failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20220826a.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20220826a.htm"
X Link 2022-08-26T14:58Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Great discussion w/ @dee_bosa @JonFortt on Fed trying to gain credibility about tightening financial conditions given their track record of reversing course every time the stock market goes down since [----]. Higher rates/inflation = lower S&P multiples. Dont Fight the Fed. Don't stop believin' âš¡ Satori Fund Founder @DanielTNiles thinks Fed Chair Powell's comments today on inflation were "a good first step" toward investors rebuilding trust in the central bank saying we're now seeing weakness in fundamentals spreading into the enterprise space. https://t.co/y0DJwKq3nB Don't stop believin' âš¡"
X Link 2022-08-26T21:34Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Over [--] yrs S&P in Sept is only up 44% of the time w/ avg loss of 0.6%. But if down YTD through July & also down in August (12 occurrences) it is only up 17% of the time in Sept w/ avg loss of 3.3%. Also fundamentals still weakening in tech w/ $STX -pre just [--] wks after guide"
X Link 2022-09-01T03:17Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Great in depth interview with @savitz for @barronsonline on the market. https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-a-bearish-money-manager-likes-gambling-stocks-and-is-ready-to-dump-apple-51662093001 Don't miss my new Q&A with tech hedge fund manager @DanielTNiles. His thoughts on @Apple @Amazon @Intel @DraftKings - and why the market is headed for lower lows. https://t.co/hYuGC62AiN $aapl $intc $amzn $dkng $wmt @barronsonline https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-a-bearish-money-manager-likes-gambling-stocks-and-is-ready-to-dump-apple-51662093001 Don't miss my new Q&A with tech hedge fund manager"
X Link 2022-09-02T17:47Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"On w/ @LizClaman @FoxNews at 3PM ET on 1) importance of $FDX as a leading economic indicator 2) Fed mtg next wk 3) why it will take time to find the ultimate fundamental bottom 4) why our target remains [----] on the S&P by mid next yr with a range of down 30-50% from its peak"
X Link 2022-09-16T18:13Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Here is the interview from Friday. https://video.foxbusiness.com/v/6312437092112#sp=show-clips On w/ @LizClaman @FoxNews at 3PM ET on 1) importance of $FDX as a leading economic indicator 2) Fed mtg next wk 3) why it will take time to find the ultimate fundamental bottom 4) why our target remains [----] on the S&P by mid next yr with a range of down 30-50% from its peak. https://video.foxbusiness.com/v/6312437092112#sp=show-clips On w/ @LizClaman @FoxNews at 3PM ET on 1) importance of $FDX as a leading economic indicator 2) Fed mtg next wk 3) why it will take time to find the ultimate"
X Link 2022-09-18T22:07Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Over [--] yrs S&P in October is up 60% of the time w/ avg gain of 1%. But if down 15%+ YTD through Q3 October is up 83% of the time w/ avg gain of 3%. Lone loss was -17% due to Lehman bankruptcy in [----]. Financial institutions better capitalized today but still a valid concern. Over [--] yrs S&P in Sept is only up 44% of the time w/ avg loss of 0.6%. But if down YTD through July & also down in August (12 occurrences) it is only up 17% of the time in Sept w/ avg loss of 3.3%. Also fundamentals still weakening in tech w/ $STX -pre just [--] wks after guide. Over [--] yrs S&P in Sept is only up 44% of"
X Link 2022-10-03T13:16Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"The Reserve Bank of Australia last night raised by only [--] bps vs expectations of [--]. Is this the first sign of a pivot by central bankers given the fear of breaking something in the financial system like an EU bank Expect further S&P gains in near-term on FOMO & low positioning Over [--] yrs S&P in October is up 60% of the time w/ avg gain of 1%. But if down 15%+ YTD through Q3 October is up 83% of the time w/ avg gain of 3%. Lone loss was -17% due to Lehman bankruptcy in [----]. Financial institutions better capitalized today but still a valid concern. Over [--] yrs S&P in October is up 60% of"
X Link 2022-10-04T12:45Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"I will be presenting on Tuesday October [--] [----] from 2:45 pm - 3:15 pm EDT at the MoneyShow Virtual Expo. Accredited investors can register for the event at the link below: https://link.edgepilot.com/s/da4b6fc2/sCdWcCqm1ky5DWE1vCGnTQu=https://online.moneyshow.com/2022/october/accredited-virtual-expo/registration/scode=058110 https://link.edgepilot.com/s/da4b6fc2/sCdWcCqm1ky5DWE1vCGnTQu=https://online.moneyshow.com/2022/october/accredited-virtual-expo/registration/scode=058110"
X Link 2022-10-09T20:10Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"On @CNBCTechCheck at 11AM ET on our big picture investment theme of Dont Fight the Fed & Dont Fight the Fundamentals. S&P [----] (15x PE on $200 in CY23 S&P EPS) is still our target for THE bottom driven by inflation coming down slower than expected coupled w/ a recession"
X Link 2022-10-13T13:46Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Here is the interview https://www.youtube.com/watchv=I3LszyEFSx8 On @CNBCTechCheck at 11AM ET on our big picture investment theme of Dont Fight the Fed & Dont Fight the Fundamentals. S&P [----] (15x PE on $200 in CY23 S&P EPS) is still our target for THE bottom driven by inflation coming down slower than expected coupled w/ a recession. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=I3LszyEFSx8 On @CNBCTechCheck at 11AM ET on our big picture investment theme of Dont Fight the Fed & Dont Fight the Fundamentals. S&P [----] (15x PE on $200 in CY23 S&P EPS) is still our target for THE bottom driven by inflation"
X Link 2022-10-13T16:01Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Listen to what companies say as their economic views are generally a reflection of what they are seeing. This makes me wary of $AMZN into earnings despite their history of gaining share during prior recessions. I try to adapt to new data even if it goes against my prior beliefs. Yep the probabilities in this economy tell you to batten down the hatches. Yep the probabilities in this economy tell you to batten down the hatches"
X Link 2022-10-19T21:15Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Interview yesterday on why I am wary of megacap earnings (generally loved w/ high PEs) next wk but still believe Oct finishes up within another bear mkt rally. Would rather be long unloved names down more than the mkt where expectations are much lower https://www.danniles.com/interviews/2022-10-20-cnbc https://www.danniles.com/interviews/2022-10-20-cnbc"
X Link 2022-10-21T13:49Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Most important factor for S&P this yr & future GDP growth is actions taken by the Fed to battle inflation. Investors want a reason to believe this is THE bottom & a less aggressive Fed on 11/3 is arguably at the top of that list. Still believe bear mkt rally but long either way. The Fed is barreling towards a fourth straight 75-basis-point rate rise at the November FOMC meeting. That meeting could serve as a critical staging ground for future plans including whether and how to step down to [--] basis points in December https://t.co/vPMSXDjHL8 The Fed is barreling towards a fourth straight"
X Link 2022-10-21T15:58Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"As previewed we were wary of megacap tech earnings this wk & S&P target for the latest bear mkt rally was 3900-4000 per our interview w/ @cvpayne on 10/21. We started reshorting & reducing longs today. Test for S&P tomorrow given $MSFT & $GOOGL results. https://www.danniles.com/interviews/2022-10-21-1 Interview yesterday on why I am wary of megacap earnings (generally loved w/ high PEs) next wk but still believe Oct finishes up within another bear mkt rally. Would rather be long unloved names down more than the mkt where expectations are much lower https://t.co/4VnsIo9FwL"
X Link 2022-10-25T21:42Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Despite 2nd & 3rd largest components of S&P $GOOGL & $MSFT down 6% S&P is passing this test w/ flying colors on 10yr yields & $USD dropping w/ hopes of less aggressive Fed nxt wk. Still 50%+ net long vs 80%+ yesterday. FOMO may take mkt even higher given today. As previewed we were wary of megacap tech earnings this wk & S&P target for the latest bear mkt rally was 3900-4000 per our interview w/ @cvpayne on 10/21. We started reshorting & reducing longs today. Test for S&P tomorrow given $MSFT & $GOOGL results. https://t.co/mLXtGsMwL1 As previewed we were wary of megacap tech earnings this wk"
X Link 2022-10-26T14:47Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"5 tech megacaps ($AAPL $AMZN $GOOGL $META $MSFT) that reported are down 9% on avg this wk (have covered many shorts & buying $AAPL today) & S&P passed this test up 3% on 1% lower $USD & [--] bps drop in 10Yr yields. Expect bear mkt rally to continue & less aggressive Fed on 11/2 Despite 2nd & 3rd largest components of S&P $GOOGL & $MSFT down 6% S&P is passing this test w/ flying colors on 10yr yields & $USD dropping w/ hopes of less aggressive Fed nxt wk. Still 50%+ net long vs 80%+ yesterday. FOMO may take mkt even higher given today. Despite 2nd & 3rd largest components of S&P $GOOGL & $MSFT"
X Link 2022-10-28T15:03Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Interview on @CNBCPro 1PM ET on cross currents in mkt. Despite this likely being the last [--] bps raise by Fed I think given recent data (JOLTS PMI ADP) the terminal rate increases to 5%+ to get it above future inflation. Given recent rally this could be a sell the news pivot"
X Link 2022-11-02T13:54Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Looking forward to my interview w/ @BeckyQuick at 8:30 PM ET on the cross currents for the market & the potential impact of the mid-term elections on the investment climate going forward"
X Link 2022-11-08T21:38Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Thoughts on 1) CPI 2) continued faith in a Q4 rally at least till 12/13 CPI print 3) potential for bigger than normal rally 4) FTX implications for downside tail risk 5) upside tail risk from peace in Ukraine. Still believe THE low is in [----] but remain pretty bullish ST. Let's get ready to rumble âš¡ With October's CPI print fueling one of the Nasdaq's best days of the year Satori Fund Founder @DanielTNiles likes our chances for a market rally heading into the end of [----]. https://t.co/yMlBRCK2z4 Let's get ready to rumble âš¡ With October's CPI print fueling one of the Nasdaq's best days of the"
X Link 2022-11-10T18:38Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"On w/ @LizClaman 3:30PM ET on 1) changes made to portfolio in last [--] hours given S&P surge on Powell speech 2) expecting ST digestion & then typical Santa rally 3) unchanged LT view on sticky inflation earnings cuts & multiple compression in [----] 4) the need to be nimble"
X Link 2022-12-01T19:07Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"W/ S&P digestion of recent gains & PPI 12/9 CPI 12/13 & Fed 12/14 upcoming positioning for Santa rally into YE before poor Q4 results become the focus. Still believe S&P [----] is ultimate low. Fallout of PE firms recently limiting withdrawals is another tail risk to be hedged. Expecting short-term digestion & then typical Santa rally but my long-term views unchanged on sticky inflation earnings cuts & multiple compression in [----]. I still expect S&P to break to new lows during upcoming recession. Stay nimble. Expecting short-term digestion & then typical Santa rally but my long-term views"
X Link 2022-12-07T16:33Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Looking forward to joining them for the entire show going into an important week ahead with both the CPI release on Tuesday and Fed decision on Wednesday. Wall St breaks its losing streak but #UST yields continue to rise and the #FTC sues to block $MSFT's acquisition of $ATVI. Don't miss Dan Niles @DanielTNiles of Satori Fund TODAY at 9:00 SIN/HK. https://t.co/8CHgormaYr @tanvirgill2 @willkoulouris Wall St breaks its losing streak but #UST yields continue to rise and the #FTC sues to block $MSFT's acquisition of $ATVI. Don't miss Dan Niles @DanielTNiles of Satori Fund TODAY at 9:00 SIN/HK."
X Link 2022-12-08T22:00Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"3% rally since 12/9 on CPI expectations/release & resultant optimism into Fed today. Given under Powell the S&P both sells off from the open & closes down on Fed days over 50% of the time I prefer to be neutral into event at 2PM ET today"
X Link 2022-12-14T17:32Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Fed yesterday revised [----] forecasts w/ inflation higher FFR higher unemployment higher & growth slower. Stagflation terrible for stks. Today ECB We should expect to raise interest rates at a [--] bps pace for a period of timewe have longer to go and we are in for a long game 3% rally since 12/9 on CPI expectations/release & resultant optimism into Fed today. Given under Powell the S&P both sells off from the open & closes down on Fed days over 50% of the time I prefer to be neutral into event at 2PM ET today. 3% rally since 12/9 on CPI expectations/release & resultant optimism into Fed today."
X Link 2022-12-15T15:36Z 121K followers, [---] engagements

"Covered a lot yesterday: 1) inflation & the Fed 2) relevance of data after 1970s/early 80s 3) focus on wrong job cuts 4) S&P [----] in play 5) [----] bad pandemic beneficiary demand transitions to [----] bad enterprise demand. Were focused on layoffs at the wrong companies says @DanielTNiles on @CNBC. Its going to take a much harder recession to kill labor inflation at SMALL businesses where consumers are stoking demand. Good moment of clarity here at the 2:35 mark: https://t.co/EExYgz7WLU Were focused on layoffs at the wrong companies says @DanielTNiles on @CNBC. Its going to take a much harder"
X Link 2022-12-16T15:31Z 121K followers, 177.6K engagements

"S&P bulls hope for a soft landing for the economy in [----] & recovery in [----]. $MU last night: The industry is experiencing the most severe imbalance between supply and demand in the last [--] yrs. $MU cut their capex by 40% y/y/ for FY23 but importantly w/ FY24 DOWN y/y as well Hope: Tech estimates have been kitchen sinked & are now beatable. Fact: $MU guided Aug qtr rev 21% below consensus just over a month ago & today negatively pre-announced. Memory is in most tech hardware & beyond so real-time economic gauge. Demand is still slowing. Hope: Tech estimates have been kitchen sinked & are now"
X Link 2022-12-22T16:53Z 121K followers, 135.6K engagements

"+Surprise as $AAPL set report date 1/4. No -pre. Stk still -1% on 1/5. Could their 8K on 11/6/22 cover them given now no "formal guide" $TSLA missed deliveries by only 4% stock -37% in just Dec & still got hit for 12% on 1/3. Not great stk reactions prior to Q4 tech results"
X Link 2023-01-06T14:24Z 121K followers, 97.5K engagements

"Interview w/ @MariaBartiromo at 8:45 am ET on 1) our thoughts going into Q4 earnings which should be bad for tech in particular 2) recent declines in inflation data & 3) why we continue to believe the Fed will need to keep rates higher for longer than the market expects"
X Link 2023-01-13T13:29Z 121K followers, 94.7K engagements

"Interview from earlier today on my views on the market upcoming earnings season & Top [--] Picks for [----]. WATCH @DanielTNiles tells me his top #2023investmentpicks plus what his prediction is for the S&P [---] and the #USEconomy https://t.co/h1CL4Yc06f WATCH @DanielTNiles tells me his top #2023investmentpicks plus what his prediction is for the S&P [---] and the #USEconomy https://t.co/h1CL4Yc06f"
X Link 2023-01-18T03:58Z 121K followers, 163.1K engagements

"Read this post from one of best tech CEOs about what he is seeing. Maybe poor guidance from tech cos for [----] is fully discounted when Q4 earnings hit nxt wk but would rather wait & see how bad & stck reactions. Another head fake S&P rally like in [----] https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2023/01/18/subject-focusing-on-our-short-and-long-term-opportunity/ https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2023/01/18/subject-focusing-on-our-short-and-long-term-opportunity/"
X Link 2023-01-18T15:50Z 121K followers, 142.5K engagements

"Azure decelerated through CQ4 (up 38% y/y) exited at run rate of mid-30s & CQ1 implied forecast of 30-31%. Azure growth rate is why $MSFT multiple so high (27x trailing PE vs 18x for S&P.) CEO's memo telegraphed this but now it is real. Bad sign for megacaps earnings nxt wk Read this post from one of best tech CEOs about what he is seeing. Maybe poor guidance from tech cos for [----] is fully discounted when Q4 earnings hit nxt wk but would rather wait & see how bad & stck reactions. Another head fake S&P rally like in [----] https://t.co/J6gvpH0pcu Read this post from one of best tech CEOs about"
X Link 2023-01-25T14:09Z 121K followers, 90.8K engagements

"I am a special guest host on @StreetSignsCNBC today for the hour at 8PM ET. Topics: 1) the dovish Fed earlier today 2) are we in a new bull market w/ the Fed soon going on hold 3) great results by our [----] Top5 Pick $META 4) what to expect from $GOOGL $AAPL & $AMZN tomorrow"
X Link 2023-02-01T23:29Z 121K followers, 76.7K engagements

"2023 Top5 Pick $META especially post $SNAP looks great: 1) Q4 rev beat & Q1 guide in-line 2) [----] dubbed Year of Efficiency- capex cut 11% & opex 5% 3) Reels product & AI discovery engine driving growth 4) solid user growth & engagement 4) PE still below S&P even at $180"
X Link 2023-02-02T13:43Z 121K followers, 107.3K engagements

"Last wk $CCJ the biggest component of Top5 Pick $URA beat Q4 rev/EPS expectations & forecast 2023/24 production above expectations. Driven by energy security concerns post Russia invasion believe nuclear is on upswing following steady declines post [----] Fukishima disaster"
X Link 2023-02-14T16:19Z 121K followers, 33.9K engagements

"On @CNBCTechCheck at 11AM ET on thoughts post Q4 earnings & why we view this as a low quality though powerful technical S&P rally with the next 5-10% lower. We continue to like our Top5 Picks w/ a combo of offense & defense commodities on China reopening & India plays"
X Link 2023-02-15T15:13Z 121K followers, 140.9K engagements

"Old saying Fed keeps raising until something breaks so [--] bps raise most likely 3/22. Banking system MUCH better capitalized vs GFC. Believe SIVB is a take under. Covering many shorts today for ST bounce but believe ultimate low ahead due to earnings & high svcs inflation. On @CNBCTechCheck at 11AM ET on thoughts post Q4 earnings & why we view this as a low quality though powerful technical S&P rally with the next 5-10% lower. We continue to like our Top5 Picks w/ a combo of offense & defense commodities on China reopening & India plays. On @CNBCTechCheck at 11AM ET on thoughts post Q4"
X Link 2023-03-10T15:59Z 121K followers, 69.3K engagements

"Trimmed $META today given our quant models give it a poor risk/reward over near-term & bought commodities & sports betting names. Plan to buy it back. Bought $META post Q3 results when hated. I believed spending cuts were coming. Today a loved name post those cuts & TikTok news"
X Link 2023-03-16T21:22Z 121K followers, 71K engagements

"Interview w/ @MariaBartiromo at 8:45 am ET on 1) S&P bounce continuing NT 2) 2H China driven commodity inflation 3) US consumer running out of $1.5T in excess savings by YE 4) 2x job opening/unemployed keeping svcs inflation high 5) lagged impact of tightening on EPS"
X Link 2023-03-17T12:26Z 121K followers, 75.2K engagements

"Here is the interview https://video.foxbusiness.com/v/6322738354112#sp=show-clips Interview w/ @MariaBartiromo at 8:45 am ET on 1) S&P bounce continuing NT 2) 2H China driven commodity inflation 3) US consumer running out of $1.5T in excess savings by YE 4) 2x job opening/unemployed keeping svcs inflation high 5) lagged impact of tightening on EPS. https://video.foxbusiness.com/v/6322738354112#sp=show-clips Interview w/ @MariaBartiromo at 8:45 am ET on 1) S&P bounce continuing NT 2) 2H China driven commodity inflation 3) US consumer running out of $1.5T in excess savings by YE 4) 2x job"
X Link 2023-03-17T17:55Z 121K followers, 45K engagements

"On w/ @cvpayne at 2PM ET. Expecting more bank failures ahead despite strong belief in FDIC expansion. Started [----] w/ $620B unrealized US bank losses & inflation still elevated. $700B Troubled Asset Relief Program passed 10/3/08 & bank failures rose to [---] in [----] from [--] in 2008"
X Link 2023-03-24T16:02Z 121K followers, 97.9K engagements

"Talking to Michael Gayed @leadlagreport through @TwitterSpaces at 12-1 PM ET on thoughts today post banking turmoil. Taking listener questions as well. Reference slides on https://www.danniles.com/articles/2023-03-27-1 https://www.danniles.com/articles/2023-03-27-1"
X Link 2023-03-27T14:30Z 121K followers, 40K engagements

"Selling our energy related positions due to 1) outsized surge in stock prices due to OPEC production cut & 2) our concerns over global demand due to the recent banking crisis & 3) in 3/14 interview thought SPX to [----] possible or at latest till start of Q1 earnings (4/14 $JPM.)"
X Link 2023-04-03T18:35Z 121K followers, 186.5K engagements

"On 4/14 $JPM $WFC $C will see CY23 NIM drop due to higher deposit rates & lower loans but likely aggregate deposit INFLOWS due to little risk of failure. $PNC likely the key report (& stock move) as a super-regional bank w/ more risk of deposit outflows & higher NIM compression"
X Link 2023-04-11T15:37Z 121K followers, 189.3K engagements

"$PNC -2% today despite megacap banks being up on results. SPX up in March as Fed balance sheet +$392B in [--] wks following SVB. Now has dropped $91B over past [--] wks as bank stress subsides. Believe SPX in April will be down now that Fed support gone again & earnings season is here. On 4/14 $JPM $WFC $C will see CY23 NIM drop due to higher deposit rates & lower loans but likely aggregate deposit INFLOWS due to little risk of failure. $PNC likely the key report (& stock move) as a super-regional bank w/ more risk of deposit outflows & higher NIM compression. On 4/14 $JPM $WFC $C will see CY23 NIM"
X Link 2023-04-14T16:33Z 121K followers, 83.4K engagements

"Great discussion yesterday w/ @SullyCNBC on Fed & mkts. At the end of full interview: the Fed Balance sheet now has dropped about $100B from the peak levels ( [--] weeks ago) and that maybe a clue that bad news is going to be bad news again People expecting interest rate cuts this year are going to be extremely disappointed says @DanielTNiles. https://t.co/6nIiRSfVAw People expecting interest rate cuts this year are going to be extremely disappointed says @DanielTNiles. https://t.co/6nIiRSfVAw"
X Link 2023-04-14T20:19Z 121K followers, 63K engagements

"Sold energy related positions w/ WTI +6% on 4/3 on surprise OPEC production cut. $XOP $OIH down 6% since 4/3 as froth getting worked off. Buying some back. Position sizing is critical especially for commodities that do not have infinite upside. Goal is good RISK ADJUSTED returns. Selling our energy related positions due to 1) outsized surge in stock prices due to OPEC production cut & 2) our concerns over global demand due to the recent banking crisis & 3) in 3/14 interview thought SPX to [----] possible or at latest till start of Q1 earnings (4/14 $JPM.) Selling our energy related positions"
X Link 2023-04-21T19:32Z 121K followers, 69K engagements

"Interview @CNBC at 8:45 am ET this morning on expectations & positioning into tech megacap earnings this upcoming week"
X Link 2023-04-24T12:27Z 121K followers, 42.1K engagements

"Recap: Sold $NVDA $INTC on weak IT spending concerns. Plan is to be not involved/short into earnings this week on concerns over online ad spend- $GOOGL $META weak PC demand recovery- $MSFT cloud spend- $AMZN $MSFT $GOOGL. $TSLA $T $NFLX earnings reactions are warnings. "The good news is $META and $GOOGL have pretty good valuation support trading around the S&P multiple" says @DanielTNiles on tech. "You look at $MSFT at a [--] P/E with a lot of optimism around ChatGPT or $AAPL at a [--] P/E." https://t.co/9M4FCio1h6 "The good news is $META and $GOOGL have pretty good valuation support trading"
X Link 2023-04-24T21:20Z 121K followers, 132.1K engagements

"Lack of profitability in their retail biz has been a problem w/ $AMZN despite big growth. But Q1 saw a glimmer of hope. Buying some $AMZN today. Still expect AWS to get worse but retail is ultimate profit driver. Shorting more cloud software names which also hedges that risk"
X Link 2023-04-28T16:17Z 121K followers, 143K engagements

"Expect [--] bps Fed raise & pause but no rate cuts later this yr due to svcs inflation remaining 3%. If we get a cut economy will have to be bad in 2H given job openings/unemployed 1.5x today. S&P PE at 19x despite CPI at 5%. Risk to reward is poor when [--] month T-bills yld 5.2%"
X Link 2023-05-03T15:54Z 121K followers, 117.9K engagements

"Powell- We on the committee have a view that inflation is going to come down not so quickly it will take some time. In that world if that forecast is broadly right it would not be appropriate to cut rates. I thought Fed was wrong on transitory but believe this is correct. Expect [--] bps Fed raise & pause but no rate cuts later this yr due to svcs inflation remaining 3%. If we get a cut economy will have to be bad in 2H given job openings/unemployed 1.5x today. S&P PE at 19x despite CPI at 5%. Risk to reward is poor when [--] month T-bills yld 5.2% Expect [--] bps Fed raise & pause but no rate cuts"
X Link 2023-05-03T19:39Z 121K followers, 67.7K engagements

"On w/ @LizClaman 3:35PM ET on solid Q1 earnings & optimism on debt ceiling resolution. LT cautious: 1) recession in late [----] but no Fed rate cuts 2) weak China despite exiting Covid zero 3) lagged economic impact from tighter lending standards & rate hikes 4) high valuations"
X Link 2023-05-22T19:19Z 121K followers, 132.3K engagements

"Discussion w/ @SullyCNBC at 7:35PM ET on Surgeon General warning about the impact of social media on children. My view is this is a tool you need to know how to use. I think this will have a negligible impact on the stock returns of social media companies. https://www.danniles.com/articles/2023-05-23 https://www.danniles.com/articles/2023-05-23"
X Link 2023-05-23T22:34Z 121K followers, 23K engagements

"We expect the Fed to pause. Central banks of Australia & Canada both paused but restarted hikes in June. Fed is probably in the same position later this yr. FOMO & AI optimism driving S&P to 20x PE w/ lagged effects of rate hikes in front of us while 3-month T bills yield 5.3%"
X Link 2023-06-14T14:01Z 121K followers, 64.5K engagements

"209K NonFarm payrolls 3.6% unemployment 4.4% avg hourly earnings roughly inline with expectations. Positive View: soft landing still in play. Negative view: rates going up & staying higher for longer. At a 20x S&P PE I side with the negative going into Q2 earnings & Fed mtg"
X Link 2023-07-07T16:10Z 121K followers, 59.2K engagements

"I love biz models w/ pricing power. $NFLX effectively raising prices by cracking down on pswd sharing but Q2 5.9M sub adds still much higher than 2.1M expected. Stock -11% since reporting EPS beat due to rev/ARPU miss. Buying $NFLX & natural hedge vs tech shorts left to report"
X Link 2023-07-24T17:28Z 121K followers, 41.8K engagements

"To expand on $AAPL thoughts was a tactical short in our tech short basket given our expectation of the reaction to earnings. But over past [--] yrs it is up nearly 70% of the time w/ avg gain of 3%+ in the month before new product launch (9/13). Likely to cover & get long prior. On @CNBC w/ @andrewrsorkin 8:45am ET: $AMZN $AAPL & best long ideas in AI. But also concerns over: 1) rising [--] yr yields due to changes in YCC & US treasury issuance 2) oil surge impact on inflation & 3) student loan repayments restart impacting 2H:23 consumer demand. On @CNBC w/ @andrewrsorkin 8:45am ET: $AMZN $AAPL &"
X Link 2023-08-04T13:40Z 121K followers, 65.8K engagements

"Detailed thoughts below: https://www.danniles.com/articles/2023-09-13-1 Based on our risk management principles: we sold some $INTC: 1) RSI reached [--] (up 51% YTD) intraday 9/12 on IMS news 2) CEO gave positive earnings update recently 3) received big pre-payment for foundry capacity 4) grew to our largest position in years. https://www.danniles.com/articles/2023-09-13-1 Based on our risk management principles: we sold some $INTC: 1) RSI reached [--] (up 51% YTD) intraday 9/12 on IMS news 2) CEO gave positive earnings update recently 3) received big pre-payment for foundry capacity 4) grew to"
X Link 2023-09-13T20:04Z 121K followers, 42.6K engagements

"Japans Central Bank raised interest rates for the 1st time since [----]. Given how many leveraged macro strategies have been based on cheap yen borrowing costs it will be interesting to see if eventually there is any collateral damage"
X Link 2024-03-19T13:27Z 121K followers, 39K engagements

"French retailer Kering $KER.FP is down 11% after pre-announcing Q1 sales down 10% y/y & biggest brand Gucci down 20% driven by weak demand for luxury goods in APAC. This is not a good omen for the upcoming Q1 earnings results for those looking for improvement in China"
X Link 2024-03-20T16:48Z 121K followers, 40K engagements

"If $AAPL does not negatively pre-announce on Monday (low chance) expect a technical relief rally given 2+ standard deviation move lower yesterday on DOJ news. This had been previewed for [--] months. My longer-term fundamental view remains negative based on competition & valuation"
X Link 2024-03-22T14:45Z 121K followers, 55.6K engagements

"Report from @IDC states $AAPL PC shipments in Q2 grew 21% y/y the fastest among global PC makers. This is much faster than the 3% overall market growth which grew y/y for the 2nd consecutive quarter driven by AI capable PCs after [--] quarters of declines. https://x.com/IDC/status/1810833931031449862 On 5/3 I posted on $AAPL with the stock -5% YTD about a likely AI driven iPhone replacement cycle. Since then positive datapoints have driven the stock to +17% YTD including: 1) Apple's estimated iPhone shipments in China surging 40% y/y in May 2) Apple Intelligence (their AI"
X Link 2024-07-10T13:31Z 121K followers, 44.1K engagements

"WTI oil is now +8% in a week from near oversold levels of $66 on 9/10 to $71 on 9/17 & is nearing the [--] year average of $73. Be aware of the elevated volatility around todays Fed decision on rates and be sized appropriately. Risk management is important. I continue to look beyond the tech sector & the Magnificent [--] for ideas through year-end. I like consumer staples telecom services & utilities as sectors that will benefit from rate cuts through year-end though roughly overbought near-term. Sentiment in oil is now getting I continue to look beyond the tech sector & the Magnificent [--] for ideas"
X Link 2024-09-18T04:51Z 121K followers, 36.6K engagements

"Interview w/ @MelissaLeeCNBC 5:10 PM ET on implications of DeepSeek on AI capex & the ROI datapoints starting from mid-2024 calling into question spend for [----]. But this is also bullish for those that benefit from lower hardware costs like $META & agent focused software names. DeepSeek is said to have trained a competitive open- sourced AI model for $6M. Innovations like Multi-Token Prediction & partial activation of Mixture of Experts are likely to be used by others to cut hardware costs dramatically in the future while helping drive the AI agent DeepSeek is said to have trained a"
X Link 2025-01-27T20:25Z 121K followers, 60.8K engagements

"Tariffs on only the 15% of nations that generally have trade imbalances with the US is likely to add fuel to the rally I expected this week driven by pension fund rebalancing. Less onerous reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd should keep the rally going until Q1 earnings season. Summary: While I believe this last week in March should be positive for the S&P given greater than normal pension fund rebalancing I believe Q1 earnings season will be rough as estimates get lowered. I doubt corporations in particular will be making major spending decisions with Summary: While I believe this last week in"
X Link 2025-03-24T13:20Z 121K followers, 72.7K engagements

"I loved the latest @WilfredFrost pod w/ Jeremy Grantham who is a historian of market bubbles & one of my favorite investors. He wrote the incredibly timed Reinvesting When Terrified in March of [----] during the Global Financial Crisis. TRAILER. [--] weeks in on The Master Investor Podcast where we celebrate & learn from the success of the greatest investors business leaders & politicians in the world& were just getting started Subscribe here: https://t.co/Xa8BhEJWnO https://t.co/KtVvU0n58n TRAILER. [--] weeks in on The Master Investor Podcast where we celebrate & learn from the success of the"
X Link 2025-07-14T17:03Z 121K followers, 37.5K engagements

"Looking forward to being on @CNBC at 10:05AM ET to discuss why I am dreaming of sleigh bells but hoping I do not receive coal"
X Link 2025-08-25T13:44Z 121K followers, 25.9K engagements

"Looking forward to this. RIGHT NOW ON DEIRDRE BOSA LIVE. - AI bubble or baseline @DanielTNiles on the AI trade - OpenEvidence CEO Daniel Nadler on building the Google for Healthcare @EvidenceOpen - @Vercel CEO @rauchg on on Grok [--] open source and whos really winning the AI talent war STREAM HERE: RIGHT NOW ON DEIRDRE BOSA LIVE. - AI bubble or baseline @DanielTNiles on the AI trade - OpenEvidence CEO Daniel Nadler on building the Google for Healthcare @EvidenceOpen - @Vercel CEO @rauchg on on Grok [--] open source and whos really winning the AI talent war STREAM HERE:"
X Link 2025-07-17T19:04Z 121K followers, 37K engagements

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