@CelsiusEnergyFM Celsius Energy

Celsius Energy posts on X about bullish, realtime, celsius, alltime the most. They currently have [------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance countries travel destinations

Social topic influence bullish #316, realtime, celsius, alltime, bearish, avg #101, mexico, natgas, in the, longterm

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @gmailcom @scottbilly56 @analysisop @srmandapaka @lalaninarendra @rebelty8 @scool891 @paulsaladino7 @brianboil @antonio03264177 @qld891 @gasino11 @frankpedinelli @illiniprogrammr @permianligand @nycstock @gilligansmemes @californiagpt @hfalpha @virajhshah

Top assets mentioned Celsius (CEL) April (APRIL) RAMP (RAMP) Rally (RLY) BLAST (BLAST) Gains (GAINS) TradersCoin (TRDC)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Despite a massive [----] MMbbl EIA-reported crude #oil inventory drawdown oil is selling off perhaps due to disappointment with larger-than expected refined product builds. With projected stocks perhaps falling to [---] MMbbls by years end I feel oil should be bought on any dips"
X Link 2019-09-11T16:47Z 17.5K followers, [--] engagements

"#Natgas demand will surge today as historic arctic cold stretches from the Rockies to the Eastern Seaboard. I am projecting a [---] BCF/d daily storage withdrawal [--] BCF bullish vs the 5-yr avg & typical of the first week of February. More: http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/intraday-natural-gas-storage.html http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/intraday-natural-gas-storage.html"
X Link 2019-11-12T13:12Z 17.5K followers, [--] engagements

"Projected Realtime #natgas inventories will fall below [----] BCF this PM while overnight the storage surplus vs the 5-yr avg flipped back to a deficit. But because of extreme cold last yr the YoY storage surplus will only narrow by [--] BCF to +506 BCF. More http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/intraday-natural-gas-storage.html http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/intraday-natural-gas-storage.html"
X Link 2019-11-12T13:22Z 17.5K followers, [--] engagements

"Much has been made about the divergence between the GFS & ECMWF but the long term models are having their own disagreement with the (admittedly highly variable) CFS considerably colder than the latest ECMWF-EPS weekly. Advanced model page for subscribers: http://celsiusenergy.co/p/advanced-model-page.html http://celsiusenergy.co/p/advanced-model-page.html"
X Link 2020-02-07T14:53Z 17.5K followers, [--] engagements

"Are #natgas traders preparing for a bull market CFTC-reported money manager short exposure plunged [-----] contracts last wk bringing the 7-wk short-covering flurry to 283K contracts. While buyers haven't yet stepped in this does suggest that the bears are pricing in a bottom"
X Link 2020-03-29T15:30Z 17.5K followers, [--] engagements

"Per the latest data from GIE #natgas inventories in Portugal have already exceeded working capacity while [--] other countries are at over 75% capacity--and it's only May. The European situation makes the USA's +394 BCF surplus look rather pedestrian. More: http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/european-natural-gas-inventories.html http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/european-natural-gas-inventories.html"
X Link 2020-05-10T23:28Z 17.5K followers, [--] engagements

"What a difference [--] days makes. Since Feb [--] #natgas inventories have flipped to a YoY deficit now approaching [----] BCF & the long-standing storage surplus vs the 5-yr avg has narrowed by over [---] BCF to just +17 BCF this afternoon. More: https://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/intraday-natural-gas-storage.html https://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/intraday-natural-gas-storage.html"
X Link 2021-02-13T18:37Z 17.5K followers, [--] engagements

"Despite a significant gain in wind generation the #natgas share of the powerstack is actually up +0.7% vs [----]. Instead it is coal that has taken the hit & is down -0.4% YoY. It will be interesting to see how this evolves this Summer if prices remain high as Powerburn rises"
X Link 2022-03-30T18:29Z 17.5K followers, [--] engagements

"#Natgas demand will begin ramping up today as heat builds across the South before spreading east. Daily injections will fall from todays near-avg +11 BCF to a bullish +7 BCF by Mondayand stay there the rest of the weekpushing the storage deficit vs the 5-yr avg above [----] BCF"
X Link 2022-06-11T15:05Z 17.5K followers, [--] engagements

"For todays EIA #Natgas Storage Report for Sep 24-30 I am projecting a +122 BCF injection [--] BCF bearish vs the 5-yr avg. It would not only be the largest injection for the week in the last [--] yrs but the largest all-time (since 1994) in both cases topping last years +114 BCF"
X Link 2022-10-06T12:18Z 17.5K followers, [--] engagements

"Todays EIA-reported natural #natgas injection was not only the largest ever for the week of September 24-30 it was the third largest all-time for ANY week since [----] behind only +147 BCF in [----] & +132 BCF in [----] both holiday weeks. Naturally prices are up +2% on the news"
X Link 2022-10-06T15:17Z 17.6K followers, [--] engagements

"Thanks to production rising to near record highs & colder temperatures driving net imports from Canada to seasonal highs total #natgas supply has been very strong reaching [-----] BCF per todays early data up +6.7 BCF vs [----] one week after briefly dropping to a YoY deficit"
X Link 2022-11-15T16:28Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements

"Todays better-than-expected +76 BCF EIA #natgas storage injection was driven by a tiny +3 BCF injection in the South Central Region (5-yr avg: +10 BCF). This drove the regional surplus vs the 5-yr avg to +161 BCF a new [----] low & nearly half March 10ths +301 BCF peak"
X Link 2023-06-29T21:18Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"Per today's CFTC data money manager #natgas long positions (208742 contracts) now exceed short positions (208601 contracts). And despite gas prices being down -58% vs last year short holdings have fallen [--] straight weeks & are down -4% vs [----] while longs are up +26%"
X Link 2023-07-07T21:35Z 17K followers, 12.2K engagements

"The near-term temperature outlook is in a word HOT. Per my Consensus Modelwhich integrates a performance-based average of GFS OP GFS ENS and ECWMF ENS dataGWDDs for July 11-24 will reach [---] GWDDs easily the single most for the period in the last [--] yrs. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-07-11T19:56Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"@RoyRctf Weather is bullish but production is strong and the storage surplus is near +370 BCF vs the 5-yr avg. That is keeping prices in check"
X Link 2023-07-11T21:22Z 16K followers, [---] engagements

"#Natgas powerburn reached a [----] high of [----] BCF/d yesterday up +4.6 BCF/d vs [----]. The [------] GWh of electricity generation from gas was the 2nd highest on record behind only July [--] 2022s [------] GWh. Note that the top [--] highest generating days are all in the last [--] yrs"
X Link 2023-07-14T20:00Z 16K followers, 14.7K engagements

"After dipping below [--] BCF/d last week LNG feedgas demand has recovered back to [----] BCF/d today. While still down nearly [--] BCF/d from Aprils record highs demand is a respectable +1.6 BCF/d higher than last year countering around half of the years production gains. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-07-17T08:52Z 16K followers, 15.5K engagements

"Per todays early-cycle pipeline data LNG feedgas demand will rise to [----] BCF/d up a steep +2.7 BCF/d vs [----]. While this is nearly [--] BCF/d below record highs the year-over-year gain is the largest since mid-April largely due to a sharp drop this time last year. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-07-20T00:30Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"The Baker Hughes #Natgas rig count fell for a rd straight week dropping another [--] rigs to [---] rigs down [---] rigs vs [----]. The count is back to within [--] rigs of the [----] low after early Julys surprise spike in the Permian count (likely due to an oil-to-gas reclassification)"
X Link 2023-07-28T17:38Z 16K followers, 12.7K engagements

"After a mid-week dip LNG export demand has recovered back to [----] BCF/d up a strong +2.4 BCF/d vs [----] thanks to a recovery in volumes at Sabine Pass Cove Point & Corpus Christi. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-07-29T21:58Z 16K followers, 12.5K engagements

"Todays EIA +14 BCF #natgas storage injection is a win for the bulls [--] BCF bullish vs the 5-yr avg. It was spearhead by a strong [---] BCF withdrawal in the South Central Region its 2nd straight which cut the regions surplus vs the 5-yr avg to +163 BCF the lowest since Feb 3"
X Link 2023-08-03T20:47Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"Someone didnt tell the 12z GFS Op run that Summer is usually winding down by mid-August. For Aug [--] the GFS shows widespread highs 10F-20F hotter-than-normal across the Midwest & East--triple digit heat for many. Might be overblown but certainly fuel for todays #natgas rally"
X Link 2023-08-07T18:23Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"@scool891 I just double checked the data and it looks on point. When prices drop below $3/MMBTU the tend to stay there for a while. The [--] streaks comprise around [----] days meaning that since [----] prices have been sub-$3/MMBTU roughly a quarter of the time. Is that illogical"
X Link 2023-08-10T00:54Z 17.6K followers, [---] engagements

"While todays #natgas storage injection came in above expectations at +29 BCF & the commodity is being punished accordingly the South Central Region saw a very bullish [---] BCF draw (5-yr avg: +2 BCF) driving its surplus vs the 5-yr avg to +145 BCF the lowest since Jan 13"
X Link 2023-08-10T14:37Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"The Baker Hughes #Natgas Rig count fell [--] rigs this week to [---] rigs a [----] low & the lowest since Feb [--] [----]. Rigs are down [---] rigs vs [----]. The decline came largely from the Permian which after a bizarre July spike has now faded back to its long-term baseline of [--] rigs"
X Link 2023-08-11T17:15Z 16K followers, 10.6K engagements

"See more on daily & realtime #natgas powerburn data on the sites dedicated Powerburn Page here:"
X Link 2023-08-14T19:52Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"Thanks to very weak wind generation of just [---] GWh & continued robust cooling demand across the South the #natgas share of total daily electricity generation reached 47.3% yesterday the largest daily share for any date since 2018"
X Link 2023-08-16T19:28Z 14.7K followers, 12.6K engagements

"With cool temperatures across the Northeast #natgas demand will reach a near-term minimum today w/ a +8 BCF daily storage injection [--] BCF bearish vs the 5-yr avg. But with an expansive heat dome building demand will soar next week w/ builds falling to just +1 BCF by Thursday"
X Link 2023-08-19T15:33Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"On Thurs the EIA reported that powerburn demand averaged [----] BCF for Aug 10-16 up just +3.2% vs [----]. However during the same period electricity generation from gas was [------] GWh up a stronger +11.8%. I feel that the EIA is underestimating the YoY gain in demand. Thoughts"
X Link 2023-08-20T17:30Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"After initially holding steady LNG feedgas demand to Corpus Christi will fall to just [---] BCF/d per todays early cycle pipeline data 59% of capacity & a Summer low. The drop comes in the wake of Tropical Storm Harold which made landfall just to the south yesterday. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-08-23T13:06Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"The decline appears related to planned maintenance at the plant that will last [--] days rather than directly due to the tropical storm"
X Link 2023-08-23T13:18Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"For todays EIA #Natgas Storage Report for August 12-18 I am projecting a +30 BCF injection a solid [--] BCF bullish vs the 5-yr avg & [--] BCF smaller than last years build. It would be the single smallest injection for the week in the last [--] years just below 2021s +34 BCF"
X Link 2023-08-24T12:11Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"Wow. The EIAs +18 BCF #natgas injection verified [--] BCF below my +30 BCF & [--] BCF bullish vs the 5-yr avg. The to-date seasonal build stands at +1253 BCF [--] BCF bullish below the 5-yr avg the 1st bullish to-date injection this season. The build is now just [--] BCF below 2022"
X Link 2023-08-24T14:37Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"The bullishness of todays EIA-reported #natgas injection was driven by the South Central Region w/ a [---] BCF withdrawal [--] BCF bullish vs the 5-yr avg. Since peaking on July [--] South Central storage has fallen [---] BCF. The surplus vs the 5-yr avg has narrowed to just +112 BCF"
X Link 2023-08-24T14:45Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"Low Pressure is organizing off Mexico & will become Idalia today or tomorrow. Models are in good agreement taking the storm into Florida potentially as a hurricane a track that has shifted west but which would still spare most #natgas production & LNG export infrastructure"
X Link 2023-08-26T19:46Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"For those interested in how my #natgas storage projections compare w/ EIA data: Over the past [--] months the average weekly error is +/-4.9 BCF. The smallest error was a [--] BCF miss while the largest error was a [--] BCF miss. My projections have tended to skew slightly bearish"
X Link 2023-08-27T14:28Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"@Scottbilly56 Stronger wind generation & production countered some of that increase in cooling demand"
X Link 2023-08-31T14:43Z 16K followers, [--] engagements

"The Baker Hughes #Natgas Rig Count inched down by [--] rig this weekthe 7th drop in the last [--] weeksto [---] rigs down [---] rigs or -30% vs [----] and the lowest since January [--] [----]. Still waiting to see a meaningful impact on gas production which is holding near all-time highs"
X Link 2023-09-01T17:11Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"With cool temperatures across the densely-populated East & West Coasts #natgas demand will bottom near-term today with a +9 BCF/d daily storage injection just below the +11 BCF/d 5-yr avg. However intense heat rapidly expands with builds falling to +3 BCF by early next week"
X Link 2023-09-02T17:03Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"LNG feedgas demand reached [----] BCF/day yesterday the highest since July [--] & very close to Summer highs. As temperatures cool along the Gulf Coast as we move further into September I expect volumes to ramp up above [--] BCF/day in the weeks to come. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-09-03T17:37Z 17.3K followers, 15.7K engagements

"While this week will feature very hot temperatures & 5-year high GWDDs the 2nd & 3rd weeks of Sep have trended cooler w/ near-avg GWDDs. While the storage surplus will continue to narrow & I remain bullish I wouldnt be surprised for #natgas to come under early-week pressure"
X Link 2023-09-03T21:30Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"Tropical Storm Lee is quickly intensifying across the open Atlantic. The storm will likely become a very large very strong hurricane perhaps category [--]. However it is likely to recurve well east of the Carolinas & shouldn't impact #natgas production powerburn or LNG exports"
X Link 2023-09-06T12:48Z 14.6K followers, [----] engagements

"Over the weekend the near-term temperature outlook has settled into a seasonal pattern for the next 14-days. Forecast Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) for Sep 11-24 stand at [---] GWDDs just below last years [---] GWDDs & the 2nd fewest for the period in the last [--] yrs. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-09-10T22:43Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"Over the weekend LNG feedgas volumes to Freeport plunged falling as low as [----] BCF/d just 15% of capacity. Per todays early-cycle data flows to Freeport will gain back +0.4 BCF/d to [----] BCF/d or 29% of capacity. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-09-11T12:24Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"LNG export demand has recovered fully from last weeks Freeport drop reaching close to Summertime highs of [----] BCF/d yesterday 90% capacity. What will it take get volumes back to record highs above [----] BCF/d Sabine Pass (4.5 BCF/d) alone is [--] BCF/d below capacity. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-09-17T15:19Z 14.7K followers, [----] engagements

"European #natgas storage injections have diminished this month. I'm now projecting inventories peak at [----] BCF [----] BCF below capacity. However this has less to do with strong demand & more to do with several countriesSpain Portugal & Czech Republicalready at capacity"
X Link 2023-09-18T13:06Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"Per todays early-cycle pipeline data LNG feedgas to Cove Point will drop close to zero as the plant begins its annual maintenance. This is earlier than last year (Oct 1) but on schedule with [----]. Last year maintenance lasted [--] days while in [----] it lasted [--] days. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-09-20T12:56Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"As a result of the scheduled drop in Cove Point volumes total LNG feedgas demand will fall to [----] BCF/d today still up +0.8 BCF/d versus last year. To be clear this is not bearish. It happens every year and will not impact total LNG volumes this Fall. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-09-20T12:57Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"While todays EIA #Natgas Storage Report hasn't been well-received by investors it's worth noting that the build was much tighter than last week due to lighter winds higher LNG exports etc. In fact I calculate that imbalances averaged [---] BCF/d tight vs [----] a new [----] high"
X Link 2023-09-21T18:51Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"The EIA has not updated daily electricity generation data since Sep [--]. However I continue to publish Realtime #natgas powerburn numbers based on electrical grid data. Powerburn is quite strong todayup +4.1 BCF/d YoY intradaydue to hot Deep South temperatures & light winds"
X Link 2023-09-25T21:41Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"LNG feedgas demand will slump to just [-----] BCF/d today per early-cycle pipeline data due to big drops at Sabine Pass (70% capacity) & Corpus Christi (63% capacity). Volumes are down [----] BCF/d from last year the largest year-over-year drop since June. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-09-26T13:31Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"#Natgas demand for the next week will remain robust as Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) are still driven predominantly by Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) & conditions will stay hot. But as Heating Degree Days (HDDs) take over by early October & the outlook stays mild GWDDs fall off"
X Link 2023-09-26T19:55Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"LNG feedgas demand was revised upwards from under [--] BCF/d yesterday morning to [----] BCF/d in late-cycle data. Per todays early-cycle data volumes will gain another +0.6 BCF/d to [----] BCF/d still down [----] BCF/d vs [----]. Gains will be driven primarily by Sabine Pass. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-09-27T12:22Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"The EIA is back to releasing its daily electrical grid numbers. Based on this data #natgas powerburn demand has started the week strong thanks to strong cooling demand across the South & light winds. Demand came in at a very strong [----] BCF/d yesterday up +7.9 BCF/d vs 2022"
X Link 2023-09-27T17:17Z 17.3K followers, [----] engagements

"Per todays early-cycle data LNG feedgas volumes will rebound to [----] BCF/d a 10-day high. Were Cove Point not down for maintenance volumes would be topping [----] BCF/d or seasonal highs. Its not preventing this mornings selling pressure but its still bullish news. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-09-29T12:40Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"The Baker Hughes #Natgas Rig Count fell for a second straight week dropping [--] rigs to [---] rigs down [---] rigs or -27% vs [----] though still off the [---] rig [----] low from September [--]. The Oil Rig Count also dropped by [--] rigs to [---] rigs the lowest since Feb [--] 2022"
X Link 2023-09-29T17:30Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"#Natgas powerburn demand has handily topped year-ago levels for [--] straight days thanks to the combination of hot temperatures coal-to-gas switching & light winds. Look for the YoY gap to narrow into October as above avg temps become less favorable as absolute readings cool"
X Link 2023-10-03T18:24Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"On Friday the 2x #natgas ETF BOIL began its every-other-month rollover selling November futures contracts & buying January contracts. The fund now holds 20% of its futures contracts in the January contract & the remaining 80% in November. The rollover will finish on Thursday"
X Link 2023-10-08T18:42Z 17.5K followers, 11.2K engagements

"Because the January #natgas contract ($3.88) is in a state of steep contango to November ($3.33) exceeding +16% this will be a bearish rollover for BOIL long-term. For the week ahead investors will note that BOIL will likely trade at less than 2x the front-month contract"
X Link 2023-10-08T18:43Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"You can track the current futures holdings of the #natgas ETFs UNG and BOIL/KOLD on the sites dedicated page here:"
X Link 2023-10-08T18:43Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"Trade Alert for Subscribers. Email alert with trade discussion sent to subscribers. Discussion also available on the site's Portfolio Page. #Natgas More: Click here to subscribe:"
X Link 2023-10-09T16:12Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"For todays EIA #Natgas Storage Report for Sep 30-Oct [--] I'm projecting a +88 BCF injection [--] BCF bullish vs the 5-yr avg & [--] BCF smaller than last yrs build. It would be the 2nd smallest injection for the week in the last [--] yrs albeit well behind 2020s +58 BCF 5-yr minimum"
X Link 2023-10-12T12:15Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"Ouch. Both the GFS & ECMWF models trended much warmer overnight especially for the closely-watched day 10-14 period. 14-day Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) for Oct 13-26 are close to 5-yr lows. If #natgas is to hold its current levels the forecast will need to revert colder"
X Link 2023-10-13T12:52Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"Cheers for the rollover: Front-month #natgas prices fell 3.2% today. However the 2x ETF BOIL only fell 3.3%. This is because as of today the fund holds January [----] contracts which were far less volatile dropping 1.5%. Of course the opposite will hold true on a green day"
X Link 2023-10-13T23:57Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"Per todays early-cycle pipeline data LNG feedgas will rise to [----] BCF/d up +3.0 BCF/d vs [----] 94% of demonstrated capacity & within [---] BCF/d of record highs. It's the highest level since Apr [--]. Stay tuned to see if demand hold up thru tonights late cycle numbers. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-10-14T15:13Z 16K followers, 14.5K engagements

"Short Squeeze: Yesterday the CFTC announced that money manager #natgas short positions plunged by [-----] contracts during the week ending Oct [--]. This is the 2nd largest weekly drop in short exposure since [----] behind only a COVID-driven [------] contract drop from Mar [--] 2020"
X Link 2023-10-14T18:48Z 16K followers, 12.4K engagements

"LNG feedgas demand climbed to a 6-month high of [----] BCF/d yesterday the highest since Apr [--] & just [----] BCF/d below record highs. Per todays early-cycle data volumes will hold steady at [----] BCF/d up +2.7 BCF/d vs [----]. Sabine Pass will lead the way at 98% capacity. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-10-17T12:58Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"Trade Alert for Subscribers. Email alert with trade discussion sent to subscribers. Discussion also available on the site's Portfolio Page. More: Click here to subscribe:"
X Link 2023-10-17T18:31Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"For #natgas bulls heading into the weekend looking for something positive: keep an eye on the October 29-November [--] outlook. Over the past 12-18 hrs the computer models have trended colder hinting at the potential for above-avg GWDDs just as the withdrawal season gets underway"
X Link 2023-10-20T19:57Z 14.5K followers, [----] engagements

"The late October-early November temperature outlook continues to look unseasonably chilly. I am now projecting daily #natgas storage withdrawals for Oct [--] & Nov [--] each more than [--] BCF/d bullish vs the 5-yr avg. However it still appears that the cold snap will be short-lived"
X Link 2023-10-25T12:18Z 14.6K followers, [----] engagements

"LNG feedgas will come in at [----] BCF today still [---] BCF below record highs. LNG exports have been kept in check by hot temperatures at Gulf Coast facilities. However I expect volumes to ramp up next week as colder conditions arrive driving more efficient liquefaction. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-10-25T14:23Z 14.6K followers, [----] engagements

"For todays EIA #Natgas Storage Report for Oct 14-20 I'm projecting a [--] BCF injection [--] BCF bearish vs the 5-yr avg & the 3rd largest build for the week in the last [--] yrs. The report carries greater-than-normal uncertainty after last weeks much larger-than-expected surprise"
X Link 2023-10-26T12:30Z 14.6K followers, [----] engagements

"While the solid EIA Storage Report helped todays rally in #natgas prices is being driven primarily by the near-term temperature outlook which has trended colder across the entire 14-day timeframe but especially Nov 4-8"
X Link 2023-10-26T19:59Z 14.6K followers, [----] engagements

"LNG feedgas demand will jump to [----] BCF/d today close to seasonal highs & [---] BCF/d away from record highs. The bulk of todays gains will come from Sabine Pass which is benefiting from much cooler temperatures along the Gulf Coast that enhance liquefaction efficiency. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-10-30T12:20Z 14.6K followers, [----] engagements

"As of [--] PM EDT #natgas inventories are on track for their first daily withdrawal of the season at [----] BCF/d thanks to a surge in res/com heating demand & strong LNG exports. Demand is up +13.4 BCF/d vs [----] which easily tops the modest +2.3 BCF/d year-over-year supply gain"
X Link 2023-10-31T01:12Z 14.6K followers, 10.7K engagements

"As arctic air pushes all the way into the Southeast this morning todays Gas-Weighted Degree Day (GWDD) outlook will surge to [----] GWDDs the second most in the last [--] years behind only 2020s [----] GWDDs & much much higher than last years dismal [---] GWDDs. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-10-31T12:23Z 14.6K followers, [----] engagements

"As US #natgas inventories flip to withdrawals Europe continues to inject with inventories topping [----] BCF yesterday nearly [---] BCF above the previous record high & at over 99% capacity. European stocks could challenge [----] BCF before cooler air finally arrives this weekend"
X Link 2023-10-31T22:06Z 16K followers, 11.6K engagements

"For todays EIA #Natgas Storage Report for Oct 21-27 I'm projecting a +81 BCF injection [--] BCF bearish vs the 5-yr avg but [--] BCF smaller vs [----]. It would be the 2nd largest build for the week in the last [--] yrs. It will also be the last build of the traditional Shoulder Season"
X Link 2023-11-02T12:46Z 14.6K followers, [----] engagements

"Per todays early-cycle pipeline data LNG feedgas demand will rise to [----] BCF/d up +3.2 BCF/d vs last year & right at the record high from April [--] [----]. Demand is being led by volumes to Freeport (95% capacity) & Calcasieu (99% capacity). #Natgas"
X Link 2023-11-02T14:24Z 14.7K followers, [----] engagements

"Net #natgas imports from Canada remain exceptionally strong at [---] BCF/d today up +2.8 BCF/d vs last year & close to seasonal highs. As temperatures warm across the Northern Tier & regional heating demand drops I do expect imports to fade in the coming days"
X Link 2023-11-03T13:27Z 14.6K followers, [----] engagements

"As of [--] PM EDT this weeks #natgas daily storage withdrawals are on track to flip back to a +3 BCF/d injection today aided by declines in powerburn and residential/commercial heating demand. Look for builds to top double digits this weekend"
X Link 2023-11-03T19:50Z 14.7K followers, [----] engagements

"Ugh. The near-term temperature outlook looks consistently above-average for the next 14-days with both GFS & ECMWF trending milder over the weekend. My forecast [---] Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) for Nov 6-19 would be the 2nd fewest for the period in the last [--] yrs. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-11-05T21:46Z 14.7K followers, 22.6K engagements

"As a result of this broadly warmer-than-normal temperature outlook I expect daily #natgas storage injections to continue into mid-November extending the injection season by at least a week. By November [--] the storage surplus vs the 5-yr avg could be topping +250 BCF"
X Link 2023-11-05T21:46Z 14.7K followers, [----] engagements

"#Natgas demand will stay weak today due to mild temperatures & strong wind generation. At [----] BCF/d demand will be down [----] BCF/d vs [----]. And due to robust supplies & weak powerburn temperature-adjusted supply/demand imbalances will be an estimated [---] BCF/d loose vs 2022"
X Link 2023-11-06T14:04Z 14.7K followers, [----] engagements

"At [----] BCF European #natgas inventories are at a remarkable 99.9% of their estimated capacity and are at their highest level on record by a more than [---] BCF margin. Most areas will continue to see seasonal temperatures into mid-November"
X Link 2023-11-06T22:32Z 14.7K followers, 11.1K engagements

"Europe continues to find ways to squeeze additional #natgas into every nook and cranny. Six countries are at or above their estimated capacity led by Portugal at 107.3% capacity. An additional seven are above 99% while the remaining are all above 95% capacity"
X Link 2023-11-06T22:32Z 14.7K followers, [----] engagements

"Within the past hour projected Realtime #natgas inventories have topped [----] BCF for the first time since December [--] [----]. It is unlikely that storage levels make it to [----] BCF but if the current mild temperature outlook warms further they could get close"
X Link 2023-11-07T01:59Z 14.7K followers, [----] engagements

"#Natgas bulls suddenly can't catch a break: Production roared to an estimated record high of [-----] BCF/d yesterday and per todays early-cycle data will only drop to [-----] BCF/d still up +3.3 BCF/d vs [----]. Gains have come from both the South Central & Appalachian Regions"
X Link 2023-11-07T14:24Z 14.7K followers, 16.4K engagements

"Public Service Announcement: There will be no EIA #Natgas Storage Report today. The EIA is undergoing a website upgrade and will instead release two weeks worth of data in next weeks report on November 16"
X Link 2023-11-09T13:42Z 14.7K followers, [----] engagements

"#Natgas production may be at record highs & weather-driven heating demand may be weak but exports are solid. LNG feedgas will rise to [----] BCF/d today up a strong [---] BCF/d vs [----]. Exports to Mexico will rise to [---] BCF/d the highest since Oct [--] & up [---] BCF/d year-over-year"
X Link 2023-11-09T15:31Z 14.7K followers, [----] engagements

"Per todays early-cycle data LNG feedgas demand will surge to [-----] BCF/d up a strong +3.7 BCF/d vs last year & within [---] BCF/d of record highs thanks to cooler conditions along the Gulf Coast. Watch for potential record highs above [----] BCF/d this weekend. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-11-10T13:59Z 17.5K followers, 10.5K engagements

"#Natgas demand will reach a near-term high today with inventories holding flat. As warmer temperatures expand to dominate the lower [--] this week I am projecting a string of very bearish injections. I don't expect consistent withdrawals until the 4th week of November"
X Link 2023-11-11T19:41Z 14.7K followers, [----] engagements

"Per todays early-cycle pipeline data LNG feedgas demand will reach [-----] BCF/d up +2.0 BCF/d vs [----] & within [----] BCF/d of the record high [-----] BCF/d set on April [--]. This represents only 96% of demonstrated capacity so volumes can in theory top [--] BCF/d. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-11-12T18:45Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"Over the weekend the near-term computer models have hinted at the potential for at least more seasonal temperatures by the last week of November. This seems to be driving a relief rally in #natgas electronic trading this evening though bullish sentiment will be quite tenuous"
X Link 2023-11-12T23:24Z 14.7K followers, [----] engagements

"The EIA should return to a more typical update schedule this week after last week's site upgrade. This includes Wednesdays Petroleum Status Report & Thursdays #natgas Storage Report but also things likely daily electricity consumption which hasnt been updated since Nov 1"
X Link 2023-11-13T14:14Z 14.7K followers, [----] engagements

"Mother Nature is out of the doghouse. After a cooling trend in the GFS & ECMWF over the past [--] hrs 14-day accumulated GWDDs stand at [---] GWDDs for Nov 14-27 now only the 2nd fewest for the period in the last [--] yrs & snapping a week-long streak of 5-year lows. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-11-13T21:53Z 14.7K followers, [----] engagements

"LNG feedgas was revised sharply lower yesterday to just [----] BCF after an outage at Freeport dropped volumes to 14% capacity. Per early data Freeport flows will rebound to 81% today driving total demand to [----] BCF. Let's see if it holds in todays late-cycle numbers. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-11-14T13:29Z 14.7K followers, [----] engagements

"LNG feedgas demand held at [----] BCF/d yesterday & will rise to a very strong [----] BCF/d today up +2.2 BCF/d vs last year & within [---] BCF/d of record highs. It appears that Mondays downward revision at Freeport that took volumes below [----] BCF/d was a one-off event. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-11-15T14:27Z 14.8K followers, [----] engagements

"The EIA will release a pair of #Natgas Storage Reports today: the delayed number from the week ending November [--] & a full report for November 4-10 at its usual time"
X Link 2023-11-16T13:24Z 14.7K followers, [----] engagements

"For the week ending Nov [--] Im projecting an out-of-season [---] BCF #natgas storage withdrawal an exceptional [--] BCF bullish vs the 5-yr avg & [--] BCF stronger than last years +83 BCF injection. It would be the 2nd largest withdrawal for the week in the last [--] years"
X Link 2023-11-16T13:24Z 14.7K followers, [----] engagements

"Meanwhile for the week of November 4-10 I am projecting a +47 BCF #natgas storage injection [--] BCF bearish versus the 5-year average but [--] BCF smaller than last years build. It would be the second largest injection for the week in the last [--] years behind only last year"
X Link 2023-11-16T13:25Z 14.7K followers, [----] engagements

"Per yesterdays finalized pipeline data LNG feedgas demand rose to a new record high of [-----] BCF/d on Wednesday just topping the [-----] BCF/d from April [--]. Per todays early-cycle numbers volumes will inch back lower to [----] BCF/d still up +2.9 BCF/d year-over-year. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-11-16T14:27Z 14.8K followers, 10.5K engagements

"While the EIAs [---] BCF withdrawal for Oct 27-Nov [--] was close to expectations the +60 BCF build for Nov 4-10 was a disappointing [--] BCF above my projection & [--] BCF bearish. #Natgas will need 12z model runs to bail it out todayor doom the commodity to sub-$3 pricing"
X Link 2023-11-16T15:58Z 14.8K followers, 10.1K engagements

"The ECMWF data center suffered a major power outage this afternoon taking many systems offline and delaying the 12z model run. Some systems are coming back online but the run will invariably be delayed or may just not come out at all. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-11-16T20:03Z 14.8K followers, [----] engagements

"#Natgas prices are again under pressure this morning after overnight model runs trended milder though forecast Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) are still expected to rise above-average by Nov [--]. With a +250 BCF surplus vs the 5-yr avg by then however more is needed"
X Link 2023-11-17T14:08Z 14.8K followers, [----] engagements

"The Baker Hughes #Natgas Rig Count dropped by [---] rigs this week to just [---] rigs just [--] rig off the [----] low & down [---] rigs or -27% vs [----]. However the key Marcellus & Haynesville producing basins saw a net +1 rig gain. The rig count drop was primarily in the Permian Basin"
X Link 2023-11-17T18:25Z 14.8K followers, 10.4K engagements

"There is a growing discrepancy between the GFS (especially the operational runs) and the ECMWF ENS. The former has trended warmer over the last [--] hrs while the typically gold standard ECMWF is quite cold into early December. Honestly surprised to see #natgas down so much today"
X Link 2023-11-17T20:11Z 14.8K followers, [----] engagements

"Over the weekend the near-term computer models are presenting a mixed picture. On the one hand both the GFS & ECMWF have backed away from a potent late-November arctic outbreak. Instead they have pivoted towards more moderately-above avg GWDDs but for longer. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-11-19T20:17Z 14.8K followers, 16K engagements

"14-day GWDDs for Nov 19-Dec [--] currently stand at [---] GWDDs the single most for the period in the last [--] yrs. By rights #natgas should bounce here sub-$3/MMBTU. However with the arctic outbreak blunted & comfortable storage levels the bears may continue to lean on the sector"
X Link 2023-11-19T20:18Z 14.8K followers, [----] engagements

"While both the ECMWF & GFS near-term models have trended milderprompting todays #natgas selling pressurethe 2-week temperature outlook remains colder than normal. 14-day GWDDs for Nov 21-Dec [--] stand at a solid [---] GWDDs 2nd most for the period in the last [--] years"
X Link 2023-11-20T20:43Z 14.8K followers, [----] engagements

"The 7-10 day forecast remains unseasonably chilly w/ GWDDs at 5-yr highs. So why are #natgas prices down again There is an unusually strong warming signal especially from the GFS in the 11-14 day period which I suspect is contributing. Still the selloff seems overdone here"
X Link 2023-11-21T19:03Z 16K followers, 12.1K engagements

"The EIA will release its weekly #Natgas Storage Report for Nov 11-17 this morning at 12:00 PM EDT one day early due to tomorrows holiday. I am projecting a +8 BCF out-of-season injection [--] BCF bearish vs the 5-yr avg & the single largest build for the week in the last [--] yrs"
X Link 2023-11-22T13:15Z 14.8K followers, [----] engagements

"I project that the #natgas storage surplus vs the 5-yr avg will peak near-term today. Beginning tomorrow colder temperatures will drive bullish daily withdrawals narrowing the storage surplus by at least [--] BCF over the next 7-10 days"
X Link 2023-11-22T14:24Z 14.8K followers, [----] engagements

"@ColossusBIO That is what the current forecasts indicate though confidence is low at that range"
X Link 2023-11-22T14:51Z 14.8K followers, [---] engagements

"Given record production & how mild it was during the week the EIAs [---] BCF #natgas storage withdrawal is a solid number only [--] BCF bearish vs the 5-yr avg. In particular the Easts [---] BCF regional draw was just [--] BCF bearish vs its 5-yr avg. More:"
X Link 2023-11-22T17:27Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"Much colder temperatures will overspread the Great Plains today driving Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) to [----] GWDDs easily the single most for November [--] in the last [--] yrs & a new seasonal high. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-11-24T13:03Z 15K followers, 13K engagements

"#Natgas prices are under pressure again this AM as investors look past the current cold snap & focus on the first week of December. Overnight both the GFS & ECMWF models trended significantly warmer for the period cutting for than [--] GWDDs from the an already mild forecast"
X Link 2023-11-24T13:06Z 15K followers, [----] engagements

"#Natgas demand will rise sharply today as unseasonably chilly conditions expand across the Central US. Fueled by strong residential & commercial heating demand & powerburn I project that total gas demand will reach [-----] BCF/d a new seasonal high & up +23.4 BCF/d vs 2022"
X Link 2023-11-25T18:51Z 15K followers, 31.9K engagements

"While unseasonably chilly temperatures will drive above-avg GWDDs thru Nov [--] there is good agreement among the computer models that a much milder airmass will quickly move in to start December. Unless this forecast changes #natgas prices will find it very difficult to rally"
X Link 2023-11-26T20:04Z 15K followers, [----] engagements

"@FayeKnoozIV I know sorry. Just telling it like I see it"
X Link 2023-11-26T20:50Z 14.9K followers, [---] engagements

"Much of Europe will see consistently colder-than-normal temperatures for at least the next 7-10 days. This will drive strong #natgas heating demand and bolster storage withdrawals. Here are forecast anomalies for this coming Wednesday afternoon"
X Link 2023-11-26T21:16Z 15K followers, 15.6K engagements

"The boost in European #natgas heating demand is needed too. At [----] BCF storage levels remain by far at record highs at a +549 BCF surplus vs the 5-yr avg and more than [---] BCF higher than the previous record from last year (3623 BCF). More:"
X Link 2023-11-26T21:17Z 15K followers, [----] engagements

"#Natgas cant stop tripping over its own feet. Over the weekend production rose to fresh all-time highs above [---] BCF/d and will hold close to that level today up +5.1 BCF/d vs 2022"
X Link 2023-11-27T15:55Z 15K followers, 11.5K engagements

"#Natgas demand will reach a near-term high today as chilly temperatures drive strong heating demand. At [-----] BCF/d total demand will be up +26.0 BCF/d vs last year fueling a bullish [-----] BCF/d withdrawal. Look for demand to retreat beginning tomorrow as temperatures warm"
X Link 2023-11-28T12:31Z 15K followers, 13.7K engagements

"As unseasonably cold temperatures have infiltrated the continent European #natgas storage saw its largest daily withdrawal of the season yesterday at [-----] BCF/d [----] BCF bullish vs the 5-yr avg. Unlike the US cold snap this chill will stick around for another 7-10+ days"
X Link 2023-11-28T23:39Z 15K followers, 11.9K engagements

"European #natgas inventories registered another strong withdrawal yesterday at [---] BCF/d [--] BCF bullish vs the 5-yr avg. With cold temperatures to persist into December the storage surplus vs the 5-yr avg--currently at +530 BCF--will likely be trimmed by [---] BCF or so"
X Link 2023-11-29T20:56Z 15K followers, [----] engagements

"It is way way too early to draw firm conclusions but #natgas production appears to have peaked for the time being with output holding at or below [---] BCF/d for several days due partly to maintenance events. Stay tuned to see if production trends back higher in December"
X Link 2023-12-01T14:00Z 15K followers, [----] engagements

"After some spotty updating over the past month the EIA appears to be back on a daily schedule for its electricity data which is used to calculate #natgas powerburn numbers. In brief: powerburn has been a bright for the sector averaging up a strong +3.6 BCF/d over the past week"
X Link 2023-12-01T18:14Z 15.1K followers, [----] engagements

"As long as LNG exports exports to Mexico & coal-to-gas switching (powerburn) remains strong demand factors are sufficient to counter production gains & leave #natgas supply/demand imbalances neutral to slightly tight. But with a +250 BCF storage surplus is that good enough"
X Link 2023-12-03T17:19Z 15.1K followers, 10.8K engagements

"#Natgas powerburn demand has remained very strong as prices have dropped fueled by weak winds & coal-to-gas switching. Over the past [--] days powerburn is averaging [----] BCF/d up +5.6 BCF/d vs [----] on its own countering essentially all of the year-over-year production gain"
X Link 2023-12-04T17:31Z 15.1K followers, 12.3K engagements

"@HiddenAegis Yes there can be favorable elements of supply & demand (powerburn LNG Mexico) but this time of year without at least seasonal temperatures it doesn't matter in the near-term"
X Link 2023-12-04T17:34Z 15.1K followers, [---] engagements

"LNG feedgas demand was revised to within a hairsbreadth of record highs yesterday at [----] BCF but per todays early-cycle pipeline data will fall back to [----] BCF still up +2.4 BCF vs [----]. The drop comes from Sabine Pass & it's possible this is revised higher tonight. #natgas"
X Link 2023-12-05T14:50Z 15.1K followers, [----] engagements

"After several years of rapid growth gains in wind generation have slowed in [----]. And over the past month wind generation has been essentially flat vs [----]. This has bolstered the #natgas share of the powerstack vs [----] as it has claimed coal share but not lost any to wind"
X Link 2023-12-05T20:02Z 15.1K followers, [----] engagements

"#Natgas demand will reach a near-term high today as cooler temperatures expand across the Eastern Seaboard. Despite strong supply (111.3 BCF/d up +7.0 BCF/d vs 2022) gains is res/com heating demand powerburn & exports will drive a projected [-----] BCF/d withdrawal today"
X Link 2023-12-06T13:58Z 15.1K followers, [----] engagements

"In addition to the usual offenders (mild temperatures production growth) #natgas is under pressure today on news that the Plaquemines LNG export facilityexpected to provide nearly [--] BCF/d of exports by 2024-25--will undergo a lengthy commissioning that could delay exports"
X Link 2023-12-06T17:09Z 15.2K followers, 19.4K engagements

"For todays EIA #Natgas Storage Report for Nov 25-Dec [--] I am projecting a [----] BCF withdrawal a strong [--] BCF bullish vs the 5-yr avg thanks to consistent heating demand during the week. It will easily be the largest draw for the week in the last [--] yrs besting 2018s [---] BCF"
X Link 2023-12-07T13:31Z 15.2K followers, 14.5K engagements

"On Thursday the 2x #natgas ETF BOIL began its bimonthly rollover selling January contracts & buying T+2 March contracts. As of this evening BOIL held 20% March contracts with 80% remaining in January contracts. The ETF will complete its roll by next Wednesday"
X Link 2023-12-08T03:25Z 17.5K followers, [----] engagements

"After a slow Fall wind generation surged to a seasonal high yesterday at [----] GWh which is top [--] all-time. This displaced an estimated [----] BCF/d of #natgas powerburn demand more than [--] BCF/d higher than last year temporarily loosening supply/demand imbalances"
X Link 2023-12-08T16:04Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"Look for wind generation to remain strong for the next 2-3 days which will keep downward pressure on #natgas powerburn. You can monitor daily & Realtime wind generation on the sites dedicated page here:"
X Link 2023-12-08T16:05Z 15.1K followers, [----] engagements

"The Baker Hughes #natgas rig count rose by [--] to [---] rigs this week still [---] fewer vs [----] but the smallest yearly decline since July. Its not like production isnt at record highs inventories arent bloated & LNG projects arent getting delayed but you do you producers"
X Link 2023-12-08T18:20Z 15.2K followers, 13.7K engagements

"I have upgraded the sites Historical Weather Data section now showing daily GWDD data for the past [--] months plus NOAA state temperature data for the past [--] months. Click to see the new page or find it off the sites Weather Data page. #Natgas More:"
X Link 2023-12-10T17:25Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"Over the weekend there was no significant change in the near-term temperature outlook with both the GFS & ECMWF calling for a stable zonal flow & below-avg Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) at least thru Dec [--]. It remains hard to see #natgas prices rallying in this environment"
X Link 2023-12-10T22:17Z 15.2K followers, 15.8K engagements

"With cheap #natgas prices weaker wind generation & (temporarily) more supportive temperatures powerburn demand is very strong today. As of 1:30 PM EDT Realtime powerburn is already above [--] BCF/d & could challenge [--] BCF/d by tonight up over +8 BCF/d vs 2022"
X Link 2023-12-11T18:30Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

".It won't fix the heating demand problem but it does tighten up underlying fundamentals and mean that if cold air ever does show up very strong total demand would drive outsized withdrawals"
X Link 2023-12-11T18:33Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"For realtime and daily #natgas powerburn numbers based on electrical grid data:"
X Link 2023-12-11T18:34Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"With #natgas prices in freefall the 2x inverse ETF KOLD closed at $105.32/share today up a massive +597% over the past year. Such performance is rather unusual for 2x ETFs due to the insidious impact of leverage-induced decay long-term. But sometimes it pays to be bearish"
X Link 2023-12-12T00:07Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"Perhaps the most frustrating part of the #natgas sell-off for the bulls is that the demand potential is there--if only there was cold air to take advantage of. Between gains in LNG & Mexican exports & powerburn demand temperature-independent demand is up 5-10 BCF/d vs 2022"
X Link 2023-12-13T13:29Z 17.5K followers, 11K engagements

"The 2x #natgas ETF BOIL has completed its bimonthly rollover and now holds exclusively March [----] futures contracts. 1x UNG will continue to hold January contracts for another week or so before it rolls over into the February contract"
X Link 2023-12-14T02:49Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"For todays EIA #Natgas Storage Report for Dec 2-8. I am projecting a [---] BCF withdrawal a moderate [--] BCF bearish vs the 5-yr avg but [--] BCF larger than last years draw. It would be the 2nd smallest draw for the week in the last [--] years larger only than 2022"
X Link 2023-12-14T13:16Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"@Antonio03264177 The bulls hope you are correct"
X Link 2023-12-14T14:54Z 15.2K followers, [---] engagements

"A little self-promotion: It was a strong week for the sites #natgas supply/demand dataset with all [--] primary componentsproduction imports from Canada exports to Mexico LNG exports industrial demand & powerburncoming within [---] BCF/d of the EIA's numbers (via S&P global)"
X Link 2023-12-15T01:42Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"Interested in a signing up for a subscription for daily data A supply/demand data-only subscription costs $35/mo while a Full Access Subscription (supply/demand data plus Daily Commentaries advanced weather data & portfolio access) is $50/mo. To sign up:"
X Link 2023-12-15T01:45Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"@PermianLigand I look at interconnections with domestic interstate pipelines that do and then update the others as finalized EBB numbers become available"
X Link 2023-12-15T03:40Z 15.2K followers, [--] engagements

"There's an interesting dynamic between #natgas futures & ETFs today. 1x ETF UNG is up 2.1% as it holds Jan [----] contracts which are up over 3%. 2x BOIL is up 1% as it holds Mar 2024s which are up 1.5%. Both ETFs are underperforming adjusted for yesterdays post-2:30 PM gains"
X Link 2023-12-15T15:16Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"Wondering what each #natgas ETF is holding and when it rolls over See the current ETF data on the site's dedicated page here:"
X Link 2023-12-15T15:17Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"@NycStock Why does it make zero sense This has been the rollover schedule for both ETFs for several years and front month contracts are typically more volatile than later contracts though perhaps a bit more than usual today"
X Link 2023-12-15T15:37Z 15.2K followers, [---] engagements

"Per todays early-cycle pipeline data LNG feedgas demand will inch upwards to [----] BCF/d up +2.1 BCF/d vs [----] & right at last weekends [-----] BCF/d all-time high. It also represents an impressive 97.4% of demonstrated capacity. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-12-16T17:31Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"I've adjusted the sites Historical Weather Page to cover the current #Natgas Demand Season i.e. the 2023-24 Withdrawal Season which runs from Nov [--] to Mar [--] rather than the rather arbitrary 90-day period as before. As always feedback is welcome. More:"
X Link 2023-12-16T20:49Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"While there are indications from both the GFS & ECMWF models that GWDDs will approach long-term averages in the waning days of December as temperatures cool the outlook still remains quite bearish for heating demand. I wouldn't be surprised to see #natgas prices drop tonight"
X Link 2023-12-17T20:30Z 14.7K followers, [----] engagements

"@toogood2fail Well stranger things have happened"
X Link 2023-12-17T20:37Z 15.2K followers, [---] engagements

"LNG feedgas demand reached a new record high of [-----] BCF/d yesterday just topping the [-----] BCF/d from the previous Sunday. Per todays early-cycle data volumes will hold nearly steady at [----] BCF/d up a solid +2.0 BCF/day versus last year & at 96% of capacity. #Natgas"
X Link 2023-12-18T14:04Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#Natgas demand will rise sharply today courtesy of strong LNG exports exports to Mexico & cooler temps boosting res/com heating demand. This will drive a marginally bullish [---] BCF/d withdrawal. However the cold will be shortlived with demand falling equally sharply tomorrow"
X Link 2023-12-19T14:24Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"The #natgas share of fossil fuel consumption (gas + coal) has held steady above 70%. The year-over-year gain climbed above +10% yesterday to a new seasonal high due to coal-to-gas switching plus unseasonably cold air this time last year that recruited additional coal consumption"
X Link 2023-12-19T18:07Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"Why is #natgas green today but both ETFs UNG & BOIL are down Only the front-month (but most frequently quoted) January [----] contract has managed to rally into positive territory. UNGs February & BOILs March contract holdings remain deep in the red"
X Link 2023-12-19T20:20Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#Natgas prices are once again under pressure as todays GFS & ECMWF model runs have pushed back the timing of an anticipated pattern shift trending warmer especially for December 28-January [--]. Bulls cant catch a break"
X Link 2023-12-20T20:23Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"For todays EIA #Natgas Storage Report for December 9-15 I am projecting a [---] BCF withdrawal a modest [--] BCF bearish vs the 5-yr avg but [--] BCF larger than last year. It would be the third weakest draw for the week in the last [--] yrs. More:"
X Link 2023-12-21T13:30Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"I estimate that the year-over-year gain in #natgas production stands at an absurd +18.4 BCF/ today. While production at record highs above [---] BCF/d is contributing this massive gain is primarily driven by temporary freeze-offs this time last year"
X Link 2023-12-22T15:50Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"#Natgas demand bottomed on Sunday with an exceptionally bearish +0 BCF/d daily storage injection. Look for withdrawals to steadily rise this week potentially climbing above the 5-yr avg this weekend or early next week as a coolerbut not arcticairmass arrives"
X Link 2023-12-26T20:46Z 16K followers, 10.3K engagements

"#Natgas prices are finding support this AM after overnight model runs trended colder especially for the Jan 5-9 period. Still no arctic blast but early January has been unusually warm the past few years such that these numbers actually look rather favorable by comparison"
X Link 2023-12-27T13:48Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"For todays EIA #Natgas Storage Report for December 16-22 I am projecting a [---] BCF withdrawal [--] BCF bearish vs the 5-yr avg & a steep [---] BCF smaller than last years draw. It will be the 2nd smallest draw for the week in the last [--] years behind only 2018s [---] BCF"
X Link 2023-12-28T13:20Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"This afternoon the Realtime year-over-year #natgas storage surplus topped +500 BCF the highest since Aug [--]. However the bears should enjoy it while it lasts. Beginning this weekend the surplus will collapse falling below +200 BCF by late January & below +100 BCF by March"
X Link 2023-12-29T00:29Z [--] followers, 11.7K engagements

"#Natgas demand will rise today courtesy of stronger powerburn & residential/commercial heating demand driving total demand north of [---] BCF/d up +15.3 BCF/d vs [----]. This will support a [-----] BCF/d daily storage withdrawal a 10-day high & just above the [---] BCF/d 5-yr avg"
X Link 2023-12-30T18:08Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"@QLD891 The gain in supply is somewhat inflated due to some residual freeze-offs from last year. Year-ago production will gain another 1-2 BCF/d over the next week. Also I would not be surprised to see current production dip somewhat into the New Year as we've seen before"
X Link 2023-12-30T19:33Z 16K followers, [---] engagements

"@PermianLigand What do you mean stale It's based on today's early-cycle pipeline numbers. That said Mexico numbers are notorious for delayed revisions so yes this might change somewhat in the days to come"
X Link 2023-12-30T19:35Z 16K followers, [---] engagements

"@JonThom08950792 Yes powerburn is up markedly on a per degree day basis this year especially over the past month as prices have dropped largely stealing share from coal as you said. Alone this doesn't offset supply gains but coupled w/ higher exports imbalances are neutral to slightly tight"
X Link 2023-12-30T19:36Z 16K followers, [---] engagements

"After modest cooling in the 12z GFS & ECMWF model runs 14-day accumulated GWDDs per my Consensus Model stand at [---] GWDDs for Dec 31-Jan [--] the 2nd most in the last [--] yrs & [---] GWDDs more than last year. If this trend holds it would bode well for #natgas entering the New Year"
X Link 2023-12-30T20:30Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"@GilligansMemes Well it includes both [----] and [----]. For consistency I call the first day of the forecast the year. Starting tomorrow it will flip to 2024"
X Link 2023-12-30T21:39Z 16K followers, [---] engagements

"The year-over-year #natgas storage surplus peaked yesterday at a massive +544 BCF. However this surplus is going to contract dramatically over the next week due to stronger heating demand coupled with very weak demand this time last year tumbling under +300 BCF by January 13"
X Link 2023-12-31T19:36Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"I have added these projected daily #natgas year-over-year storage departure charts to the site on the Near-Term Inventories Page. You can now tab back and forth between projected departure vs the 5-yr avg & vs last year. More:"
X Link 2023-12-31T19:37Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"@Hydrocrbon_Man Reviewing my own s/d data I'm seeing numbers in the same ballpark: Total demand down [----] BCF/d & total supply up +5.1 BCF/d. Powerburn LNG exports & mexican exports have all bolstered supply but beginning in early November consistent res/com losses have cancelled this out"
X Link 2023-12-31T22:04Z 16K followers, [--] engagements

"While cold air still isnt pervasive across the Lower [--] (yet) todays Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) will rise to [----] GWDDs the single most for January [--] in the last [--] years & more than 65% higher than last years dismal 5-year low of [----] GWDDs. #Natgas"
X Link 2024-01-01T17:20Z [--] followers, 14.8K engagements

"While the models are still uncertain about the magnitude & timing of the coming cold air what is increasingly likely is that the weather pattern will become more active with two large-scale storm systems in the next 7-10 days impacting the East Coast & the Great Lakes. #Natgas"
X Link 2024-01-01T19:49Z 14.7K followers, [----] engagements

"@Scottbilly56 Yep. That will be the peak of the year-over-year surplus for at least the next 3-6 months. If cold air shows up in January and February this could even flip to a deficit by the end of the heating season. The surplus vs the 5-yr avg will see a more modest contraction"
X Link 2024-01-01T20:23Z 16K followers, [---] engagements

"While the near-term temperature outlook isnt as cold as it was yesterday I feel that it has improved sufficiently over the holiday weekend for #natgas to gap up when electronic trading resumes this evening. The ECMWF in particular has trended colder since Friday"
X Link 2024-01-01T21:48Z 15.2K followers, [----] engagements

"@crislan9999 I am seeing production in 105.5-106.5 BCF/d. Because of the # of pipelines involved in the calculation--including intrastate lines that aren't publicly available--ouputs from different analysts will vary. The important thing is how the number relates to their year-ago & 5-yr avg"
X Link 2024-01-01T22:53Z 16K followers, [---] engagements

"@CaliforniaGPT Sometimes they do (i.e. Dec 26). Agreement is much better in the 1-5 day range. Thereafter small differences can blow up into big differences. More important in my opinion is the trend of each"
X Link 2024-01-01T22:55Z 16K followers, [---] engagements

"After a significant overnight warming trend both the GFS & ECMWF cooled in todays 12z runs. I'm forecasting a still-solid [---] GWDDs for Jan 3-16 the 2nd most in the last [--] yrs. Expect continued #natgas volatility as the models work to get a handle on the coming pattern shift"
X Link 2024-01-02T20:24Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"Powerburn continues to be a bright spot for the #natgas sector lately averaging [----] BCF/d over the past week up +6.0 BCF/d vs last year despite only marginally favorable temperatures"
X Link 2024-01-03T16:26Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

".If you are not yet a subscriber please consider giving the site a try. Subscribers gain access to daily #Natgas supply/demand data Commentaries an Advanced Modeling Page updated w/ the latest GFS/ECMWF data & a managed Energy Portfolio. More:"
X Link 2024-01-03T23:48Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

".And if you sign-up for a premium subscription today you effectively receive a 1-month trial since new subscribers for this month will not be charged until February [--]. You can quit at any time though I hope you'll stay. More:"
X Link 2024-01-03T23:58Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"@Scottbilly56 Per my Fair Price Model the February & March contracts look pretty fairly valued at current levels. The direction from here will be squarely related to upcoming model runs"
X Link 2024-01-04T14:45Z 16K followers, [---] engagements

"Ooof. After todays EIA-reported [---] BCF #natgas storage withdrawalbearish even by already bearish expectationsheating season to-date withdrawals stand at [----] BCF the single fewest by a [--] BCF margin. However look for things to improve substantially in the weeks to come"
X Link 2024-01-04T15:37Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"14-Day Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) now stand at [---] GWDDs for January 5-18 just topping [----] for the single most for the period in the last [--] years. It is a completely opposite last year which saw a dismal [---] GWDDs for the same period. #Natgas"
X Link 2024-01-04T20:04Z 16K followers, 18.4K engagements

"My projected #natgas storage withdrawal for January 13-19 continues to look juicy at [----] BCF [--] BC bullish vs the 5-yr avg & [---] BCF larger than last year. Dont etch this one in stone yet as the predicted arctic outbreak could easily change but looks impressive right now"
X Link 2024-01-05T15:24Z 16K followers, [----] engagements

"Its going to be a nervous weekend for #natgas traders. If I was a bear Id be worried about a short squeeze Monday ahead of an arctic onslaught. If I was a bull Id be worried that the forecast cant look any better than it already does & prices will lose momentum & sell-off"
X Link 2024-01-05T20:04Z 16K followers, 34K engagements

"@HFAlpha_ I typically look at the 30-year average for temperature but for Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) I look at the 5-yr avg since that is the typical comparison period for natgas storage"
X Link 2024-01-06T16:44Z 16K followers, [---] engagements

"@HFAlpha_ This has been particularly relevant lately since while temperatures vs the 30-yr avg have remained warmer-than-average we have still seen bullish daily storage withdrawals because GWDDs have been above avg vs the 5-yr avg (but not the [--] yr avg) due to a mild past [--] years"
X Link 2024-01-06T16:44Z 16K followers, [---] engagements

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