@CedarStResearch Avatar @CedarStResearch Cedar Street Research

Cedar Street Research has been discussing various stocks in the insurance industry. One of the most notable mentions is $WRB, which has seen significant buying activity, potentially driven by Japanese investors. Additionally, $ERIE has been criticized for its valuation, underwriting, and capital management, with some expressing confusion about its high price-to-earnings ratio.

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Social Influence

Social category influence stocks 54.64% finance 36.6% technology brands 11.86% cryptocurrencies 5.67% countries 2.06% financial services 1.55% currencies 1.55% automotive brands 1.03% celebrities 1.03% exchanges 0.52%

Social topic influence insurance #1573, $betr #1, $xzo #1, ai 8.25%, $asic 8.25%, business 6.7%, $arx #24, $ori #55, $wrb 4.64%, $np #1

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @onion61314 @claudeai @triberuffner @mabiverse123 @tyrobben @realnotbuffett @audittheherd @hettygreen2020 @culturalsamura1 @djebitda @tvmetguy @danielsethlewis @ironicape @karstresearch @ddblakefischer @nejatian @longwalkcapital @masayoshisson @bastianellilore @empress_cap

Top assets mentioned Better Home & Finance Holding Company Class A Common Stock (BETR) Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO) Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings (ASIC) Accelerant Holdings (ARX) Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) W R Berkley Corp (WRB) Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) American International Group Inc (AIG) Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (HG) Palomar Holdings, Inc. Common stock (PLMR) Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. (SKWD) Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC) Aon PLC (AON) Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company Ordinary Shares (WTW) Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc (BOW) Neurobro (BRO) Erie Indemnity Co. (ERIE) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Opendoor Technologies Inc Common Stock (OPEN) Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR) Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) UiPath, Inc. (PATH) Maxcoin (MAX) Progressive Corp (PGR) Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Morgan Stanley (MS) Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"$BeTr did a short just cover"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@claudeai has me plugin OpenAI API keys for additional functionality that Claude is quite honestly dogshit at. Ive been building an AI claims agent for one of my tools and it literally could parse a very basic loss runs that I was supplying it so its now using GPT to create and operate the agent. What https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022439678696452328 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022439678696452328"
X Link 2026-02-13T22:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Dear lord sweet baby Jesus nearly [--] days to cover and including dark pool volume $BETR is almost at [---] million shares short 😂😂😂 What is the fair value if we drop to a normal short interest 1-5% I don't anticipate a sharp squeeze mainly because partnerships will come in over time and it will take time for shorts to cover. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022479035087872235 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022479035087872235"
X Link 2026-02-14T01:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"lol no I think Michael and Brian are very intelligent. They did say they think they can achieve above market growth over the cycle but the past few quarters they are trailing their competitors like $HG $ASIC etc which could be due to the fact that those competitors are writing the business on worse terms or cheaper premium etc and maybe its a blip in the matrix but analyst are pretty much pure EPS modelers and the model trend is +5% right now. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1992784093147263104 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1992784093147263104"
X Link 2025-11-24T02:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Anyone notice a new partnership listed on $BETR website Say hello to Chime $CHYM has [---] million monthly active users and growing at +20% YoY. Think they can squeeze another [-----] to [-----] mortgages out of them in [----] Rough math based on a 12bps conversion rate would be more than $4B of loan volume for [----]. Still undetermined who the 50m financial services partner is as well as one other. the path to $24B in loan volume is starting to make a lot of sense. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008186525138166180 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008186525138166180"
X Link 2026-01-05T14:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@claudeai Wow Im cooking with gas now Claude powered by GPT"
X Link 2026-02-13T22:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$ORI and $WRB 😅"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Reminder for the $BETR troops out there (we had strength in numbers today) this was literally released two weeks ago and we got an 8-K with huge growth targets"
X Link 2026-02-12T22:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@TyRobben @TribeRuffner @Ironic_Ape My biggest fear to owning this would be the long end of the yield curve rising although tracking CPI and Truflation it appears the opposite trend is occurring bringing the 10yrs down"
X Link 2026-02-14T15:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"$CVNA Carvana Auto Receivables Trust 2025-P1 Prime securitization with 31% sub-prime mixed in great job guys lol Meanwhile the +31 day delinquency rate continues to climb every single year for Prime and Subprime securitizations"
X Link 2025-07-14T14:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Not going to lie this was a very frustrating print to read this morning to say the least. I have $NP at $93m of forward adjusted EBITDA - TTM Q2 [----]. A lot of folks don't know this but $NP was purchased for 18x EBITDA on 5/11/23 by FTV Capital (forward EBITDA was 12x). At the time $NP enterprise value was $900m on TTM EBITDA estimated at $50m. So FTV is shooting for a 3.1x MOIC and a gross IRR of 105% after holding an asset for 2yrs. really If they go forward with the $2.8B estimated cap I see this falling flat on it's face just like $SLDE and $ARX. 30x adjusted EBITDA will not hold. I see"
X Link 2025-09-22T15:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Winners of the day $WRB $ASIC $ORI $FFH.TO $WRB up +32.7% YTD and that doesnt even include all the dividends and special dividend thank you 🍣 🚊"
X Link 2025-10-10T21:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"If you invest in insurance and want to understand how the NAIC is formulating regulation around AI in insurance this is worth a read. NAIC Bulletin will be in thread below. $LMND $ROOT $HIPO"
X Link 2025-10-16T14:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Fintwit is so dude heavy I have a feeling if more women were involved this would be a nicer platform and there would be better investment ideas"
X Link 2025-10-18T12:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"One of the main reasons I like $WRB so much is due to the bluntness of the Berkley family they just call markets out for what they are. I think the past [--] days is just a continuation of clear evidence that the insurance industry is still a cyclical industry. And for whatever the reason may be some would say fear and greed the industry continues to seemingly make an art out of self-sabotage when it comes to its own success he said. The reinsurance marketplace clearly the property market particularly property cat that bloom is off the rose Berkley commented on the reinsurance sector"
X Link 2025-10-21T13:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Called it California mustve been big for $ASIC the road to $25 seems clearer @onion61314 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ategrity-specialty-insurance-company-holdings-200700189.html Why has the CA Stamping office not included $ASIC in their reports Are folks sleeping on their Q3 growth I honestly don't know definitively it's hard to say not knowing what they are doing in CA. As a benchmark $ASIC was up +27% in California on June [--] [----]. I doubt the https://t.co/sC4w4eVYNG https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ategrity-specialty-insurance-company-holdings-200700189.html Why has the CA Stamping office"
X Link 2025-10-23T01:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Why is $ARES using life insurance assets to buy up some of their affiliated secondary funds"
X Link 2025-10-29T16:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Anyone in Australia know what this CEO did $SDF.AX Stock halted this morning. Sounds like sexual assault per the filing "workplace complaint against a senior executive" in this case the CEO"
X Link 2025-10-30T18:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"What's the deal with $DOMH $2B shelf registration"
X Link 2025-10-30T18:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"P&C brokers finally starting to look interesting again $AJG $AON $MMC $WTW $BWIN $TWFG $GSHD $BRO"
X Link 2025-11-05T20:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$OSCR quite literally stated how dire the elimination of tax credits would be on this market [--] days ago and was hoping to work with the government to keep them going. It's now a reality they are French toast and Trump has no plans on extending them. Warned people a few weeks ago his ego would be bigger than this stock"
X Link 2025-11-10T14:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Still digesting $ARX results but they are guiding to $269m of Adj EBITDA by FY [----] which would put the forward multiple at 10.3x right now. Quarter highlights are [---] members $4B in LTM Written Premium +42% Organic Growth and [--] risk capital partners. US MGA growth appears to be robust as it's still near 20% range. LTM Adj EBITDA of $211 or a multiple of 13.2x. With the guidance and pipeline I think this has officially bottomed out again still reviewing but a forward EBITDA of 10x would be viewed as cheap in my opinion. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1988724613808099428"
X Link 2025-11-12T21:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$ARX CEO insider purchase of $1m in stock. I like the confidence Radke has in this business. I think the flywheel these guys have created is very undervalued at the moment. My fair value price is $20 and I think long-term that could be conservative considering no other company has built an MGA insurance exchange that connects MGA's Fronts Reinsurers and Alternative Capacity quite like these guys (it is incredibly challenging to do). Most folks have zero clue how hard it is to launch / manage these MGA's (people think with the flick of a wrist they get incubated. I can assure you they do not)."
X Link 2025-11-18T16:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Interesting chart from a report I'm working on. Excluding stock repurchase/dividends. who looks cheap $RLI $KNSL $MKL $WRB $BOW $ORI $SKWD $ASIC $AXS $HG"
X Link 2025-11-24T14:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$SKWD is a conundrum to say the least. Stocks trading around $46 a share and Citizens analyst just increased their target share price to $80. I struggle with how they got to $80 in all honesty. Its an interesting one they are in a lot of tough products 2x BVPS abnormal underwriting leverage (NWP/Surplus) have to circle back on their RBC ratios but would assume they are below average growing PMI like a weed will help build surplus faster permitted credit quality doesnt deteriorate and EPS as well due to the low loss ratios in that sector Apollo deal still has to hit TBV sometime next year"
X Link 2025-12-04T14:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Fun day wrapping up my $PLMR report when two of your picks $PATH +18% and $ARX +6% on the day but up +16% in less than a month. Both having fantastic days when the S&P / NASDAQ are flat on the day"
X Link 2025-12-04T15:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@linglingfool You caught it on $ASIC so I knew to look this time lol"
X Link 2025-12-04T18:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"I love being knowledgeable (some might call it on the spectrum) in a space that is dreadfully boring to investors (insurance) and one that no one cares about. It helps create alpha type opportunities though. The Florida CAT trade was a moment in time. a good moment. $ERIE is a blessing of a short. $SKWD and $BOW make fun trades L/S loved when they had a higher PE than $GOOG what $AIG is structurally very cheap. $HIPO and $ASIC deserve a deep dive. $SPNT has had a run - bought in at $18 like [--] months ago $MAX $ARX $PLMR all have a lot of upside and are not standard P&C (Boring defensive names)"
X Link 2025-12-04T23:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"In my opinion $WTW paid an arm and a leg for Newfront. As a young William Thatcher asked his father can a man change his stars It appears the answer is no in $WTW case. 18x LTM EBITDA and 12x [----] EBITDA. 70% cash at close is pretty high. Integration costs plus debt outweigh any synergies gained over the next [--] years. Ive heard NewFront built some nifty software but Im not under the impression its a full stack AI type company. $WTW adj EBITDA margin is 22% as of Q3 [----] NewFront at close reported a 24% adj EBITDA margin and they adjusted it up to 26% for [----] purposes not sure I follow."
X Link 2025-12-10T14:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Not a bad day. My core trading account but not all my direct holdings as I use two other platforms. Name blacked out is a company I haven't commented on yet so going to keep it blanked out right now. $MAX $WRB $ORI $PATH $AIG $GOOG $ARX $. $HG $PLMR $HCI $AJG $TSM $BETR $ASIC by position size https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1999219106902397122 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1999219106902397122"
X Link 2025-12-11T20:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@SoggyToast1337 @iresfrank @BrandonVanZee Happy for the shareholders no position in $ERIE anymore. I think likely a move to fend off the sell down. There is an active lawsuit on the commission if they win its good for them if they lose its bad for them"
X Link 2025-12-12T02:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Christmas came early again this year $ORI with a monster special dividend of $2.50 per share 🤙 https://ir.oldrepublic.com/news/news-details/2025/OLD-REPUBLIC-ANNOUNCES-SPECIAL-DIVIDEND/default.aspx https://ir.oldrepublic.com/news/news-details/2025/OLD-REPUBLIC-ANNOUNCES-SPECIAL-DIVIDEND/default.aspx"
X Link 2025-12-12T12:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Dear lord baby jesus please continue to keep strength in my P&C names in this time of market turmoil $WRB $ORI $AIG $ARX $HG $PLMR $HCI $AJG $MMC $FFH.TO $HIPO $ASIC $PGR $BRK"
X Link 2025-12-12T16:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$ERIE this will likely not make the lawsuit any easier for you guys. In all seriousness I would have advised against this and I love receiving a special dividend but I think it's a last ditch effort to stay in the S&P [---]. You have shareholders receiving a special dividend when policyholders are suing you because you produce large underwriting losses and are losing their surplus. Subscriber Class Action Lawsuit: Special Dividend Announcement: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/erie-indemnity-nasdaq-erie-pay-103752987.html"
X Link 2025-12-17T19:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Hard to see how $AIG doesn't grow like a weed next year: Convex acquisition 30% of $5B Everest renewal rights deal worth $2B New Lloyd's facility with $300m of premium pledged https://www.artemis.bm/news/aig-sets-up-another-sidecar-style-syndicate-at-lloyds-with-blackstone-amwins-ai-in-the-mix/ https://www.artemis.bm/news/aig-sets-up-another-sidecar-style-syndicate-at-lloyds-with-blackstone-amwins-ai-in-the-mix/"
X Link 2025-12-19T19:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Not going to lie this makes me nervous. $SKWD head of actuarial just sold $250k worth of shares which was 40% of their entire shares owned. Barely squeezed a profit out here but if you read my report from earlier in the year their reserves and growth were my main concern here and what does the head of actuarial know that the market might not know. Could be a nothing burger but not loving this. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2002126161157992707 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2002126161157992707"
X Link 2025-12-19T21:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Mrsthtoadd @peppershares With $ORI I dont sell I just slowly add over time its one of my favorite names"
X Link 2026-01-02T14:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Big change over at $AIG. Im a fan of Eric he did a great job at $AON but unfortunately you couldnt have two CEOs and Case got the nod. Eric has no experience running an insurance carrier so that strikes me as something $AIG will have to do a lot of explaining on. https://www.reinsurancene.ws/aons-eric-andersen-named-aig-president-and-ceo-as-peter-zaffino-transitions-to-executive-chair/ https://www.reinsurancene.ws/aons-eric-andersen-named-aig-president-and-ceo-as-peter-zaffino-transitions-to-executive-chair/"
X Link 2026-01-06T13:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Just my two cents because were going to see a lot of natural volatility in $AIG due to succession plan uncertainty. My take pre-market looks down near book value again. Near term $AIG is set to grow the crap out of the top line. From renewal rights deals and minority acquisitions as much as $5B not including any organic growth plus they have a massive repurchase facility and likely alot of expected deal flow from Aon via the hiring of Eric. Ill continue to be a net buyer when fear is creating sellers at these levels. Questions around Erics ability are definitely warranted. That being said hes"
X Link 2026-01-06T14:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"25 million share repurchase nice $WRB quick math around $1.75B repurchase commitment"
X Link 2026-01-08T15:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Reminder that carriers that build up excess capital in hard markets can really help boost their stock via buy-backs and repurchase facilities in soft markets. $ORI and $WRB are masters at that trade"
X Link 2026-01-08T16:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Flood insurance becoming popular these days in the MGA world. $NP"
X Link 2026-01-08T16:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Why is $BAKKT rising so much on no news Its interesting"
X Link 2026-01-09T14:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Right now the main product is an end to end (they call it a carrier in a box) homeowner insurance software solution. From what I understand that can be easily switched to commercial property as well. The advantage to Exzeo is the low integration cost versus Guidewire which is in the millions. I know of one Guidewire project that ran $1B with USAA. I dont really understand Guidewires multiple. Its growing but their margin sucks and all of their customers complain about them. I think for the time being a range of 15-20x handle is fair for Exzeo until they prove they can sell the product to more"
X Link 2026-01-14T14:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"All of mitsuis buying of $WRB they stayed pretty disciplined the whole way through"
X Link 2026-01-15T03:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@investingwithac Same but I prefer $XZO over $PRCH"
X Link 2026-01-17T16:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"This is a pretty poor hit job on the litigation history on $BETR if you take a second to look at the actual history every mortgage originator was tagged with a securities class action lawsuit $RKT $LDI $BETR $UWMC when interest rates spiked. Sure they all faced large market cap losses in the billions but none had been negligent in their business practices only the Fed controls interest rates and its no ones fault. That came through in the litigation as most of it was defense cost (lawyer bills) and the settlements that did flow through were tiny and if you have ever run a business you know"
X Link 2026-01-19T01:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Nick_Lamparelli @onion61314 Yeah Ive ran the numbers a bunch of different ways and everything is telling me $1.5 billion will get blown out appreciate the insights Lamps"
X Link 2026-01-22T12:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Ashton_1nvests $BETR $XZO and a friend has me doing a lot of DD on $HNGE thats peaking my interest"
X Link 2026-01-24T03:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I feel like $BEZ.L rejecting the $10B offer by Zurich is borderline sub [--] IQ type level thinking. Cyber is in an incredibly soft market and these guys have a lifeline to sell at a massive premium. Shareholders getting screwed by management on this one at the moment"
X Link 2026-01-24T15:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$TSLA insurance unit economics ex profit load they are operating at 6.6% expense ratio. 88% permissible loss ratio and theoretically can break even at a 93% loss ratio 🤯"
X Link 2026-01-24T20:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Sorry George but this is really bullish. $BETR not only did they confirm that a large credit facility was extended with reduced cash deposit requirements expanded leverage capacity and higher advancement rates "materially reducing ongoing equity capital requirements" they also reaffirmed that monthly origination volumes are still expected to exceed $1B per month by May [----] and positive Adj EBITDA by Q3 [----]. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016163717033943148 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016163717033943148"
X Link 2026-01-27T14:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@onion61314 Havent looked at stamp data but will try and take a peak"
X Link 2026-01-29T01:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@BDCryptoGuru $XZO finished +1.99%"
X Link 2026-01-29T21:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The plan $HHH $TSLA Rocket Man we can call it a Sparcter9 @elonmusk We have the technology to reward loyalty: @elonmusk We have the technology to reward loyalty:"
X Link 2026-01-30T04:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Mabiverse123 @culturalsamura1 @coffeshopgeorge Been running LLM searches basically everyday and Im at: Credit Karma Chime Acorns American Express Carta As well as NEO FOA Ally etc and can we get $REAX in there 😇"
X Link 2026-02-01T16:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"This strikes me as an odd move by $AGO"
X Link 2026-02-02T21:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Well if you told me the market would be hit hard and most SaaS would be down 10% or more I would not have guessed that $BETR would be up by the end of that day"
X Link 2026-02-03T21:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$BETR CEO literally talks about this constantly and no one seems to listen. Vishal built a rules based ML underwriting system with AI wrapper and agents unleashing hell of the process. He also discussed at length how they dont used seat based pricing and its all based on outcomes. Mr Market will wake up on this name as its been beaten to death and the upside is absolutely massive for them in the super outdated legacy world that is the mortgage business. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018992699752267826 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018992699752267826"
X Link 2026-02-04T10:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$UBER first demand of +3000 sexual harassment lawsuits pending in court against them. [--] demand so far $146 million. Imagine an average settlement and the fact that more plaintiffs keep getting added to the trial every month. Jury deciding this sexual harassment verdict - [--] women / [--] men. https://www.courthousenews.com/bellwether-sexual-assault-case-against-uber-heads-to-jury/ https://www.courthousenews.com/bellwether-sexual-assault-case-against-uber-heads-to-jury/"
X Link 2026-02-04T23:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Incredible one can run a company like $GOOG doing $400B in revenue grow double digits and experience margin expansion. Yes CAPEX depreciation (I have my doubts on the depreciation argument although yes an accounting trick to boost earnings / if the life of the TPU is extending and running at full utilization which it looks like they are then Im fine with it). Years past a company would have to burn a hole in their pocket to achieve this $GOOG can do it with free cash flow. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019246163929481712 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019246163929481712"
X Link 2026-02-05T03:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@AuditTheHerd @Gfilche @Lemonade_Inc Cant even begin to explain to the lemonade community how complicated health insurance is versus pet insurance. Regulatory requirements go up by about 1000x. Pet might as well have no regulation as a comparison"
X Link 2026-02-05T14:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@KarstResearch Claude can pound sand lol"
X Link 2026-02-05T20:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$ARX still doing insurance things but cant Claude just license itself create MGAs and connect fronting companies reinsurers and capital markets ILS capacity via vibe coding Honestly the Claude stuff is so ridiculous at this point"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Ironic_Ape Yes but through another company using their tech stack no I totally see companies using this technology to improve operating models I just dont see Claude launching plugins as the takeover scenario"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@Nick_Lamparelli Totally joking I think $ARX is not threatened by Claude in fact I see Claude as a tool $ARX can integrate"
X Link 2026-02-06T00:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Pretty solid hire for team $BETR today. Angello hired as Head of Capital Markets. Angello was an Executive Director of the Residential Whole Loan Trading team at Morgan Stanley and prior to that JP Morgan"
X Link 2026-02-06T02:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@culturalsamura1 Guy who probably handled a ton of the warehouse trading said why am I at Morgan Stanley when these guys are about to light it up great job team $BETR"
X Link 2026-02-06T03:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Do you guys ever run fixed premiums of project specific or OCIP type risks or is it all variable rate subject to audit Admittedly I know the coverages but not how the policies are designed. $6.00 on $1000 gross receipts and your project shoots ip 30% because of cost overruns your insurance doesnt care that your already losing money"
X Link 2026-02-06T03:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"It looks like an insurance company these dash cash flow and float and the investments literally resemble duration and fixed income mix a insurance carrier would have I was staring at this one the other day saying how the hell of they not done material M&A and/or been a little more creative with their investment strategy. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019622979504623794 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019622979504623794"
X Link 2026-02-06T04:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@JackFarley96 Yeah product has no MOAT but its cheap and you can do a lot with the balance sheet"
X Link 2026-02-06T04:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@hedgequote Appreciate it With the Head of Insurance abruptly quitting Palantir to go work for Blackstone Im wondering how well this will go for Anthropic lol"
X Link 2026-02-06T11:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@amitisinvesting whats A16z up to Got one"
X Link 2026-02-06T13:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"My thought is strategically buy monoline carriers that specialize in highly profitable products (i.e. surety) with poor unit economics (bloated expense ratios) and (poor NWP/GWP economics due to limited surplus). Buy cost takeout train AI model grow premium license software. Then expand within carrier or buy another monoline say in (niche casualty line) rinse and repeat. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019806774094614955 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019806774094614955"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@AuditTheHerd got a call today. Very intelligent individual. Starts talking random ideas to me. For reference he does not have a twitter account and we mostly talk financial services and non-health tech. He hates anything LLM gets wrappers but prefers hardware mixed in. Goes dude have you seen this Tempus AI $TEM company Thesis data MOAT as deep as Mariana Trench regulatory MOAT almost as deep revenue model stickier a Venus flytrap solving real world problems and highlighted potential of new algorithms. I have a starter position will be watching closely and adding overtime."
X Link 2026-02-07T00:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"He just run screeners all the time. Just happen to come across it. Pivoted out of financial services a year ago had an epiphany about going into healthcare and now finding himself more and more invested in that landscape from an investment perspective. I was caught off guard since we were on a rant about Better and Insurance lol https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019938414108217458 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019938414108217458"
X Link 2026-02-07T00:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@TribeRuffner @Gubloinvestor Call me crazy but I think $BETR revenue could be above $350m to $400m in [----] and north of $750m to $1B in 2027"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"3000 lawsuits tied to this case. This $8.5m verdict now sets precedent for the [----] so all [----] go to trial (Uber doesnt want that legal bill) or they do a bellwether settlement. The [----] is growing by around [---] a month likely more now that an award has been granted and there are [---] or so state cases not included in that statistic. My guess we will see a $500k to $1m settlement across nearly +4000 individuals. What would be interesting is if this figure rises to the [----] to [-----] estimate some had previously assumed it would develop to. Whatever the case no chance the $12B in reserves they"
X Link 2026-02-07T23:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I will admit Claude is kicking Grok's ass right now"
X Link 2026-02-08T17:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@NegConv3xity I agree on that end I find grok exceptional at research"
X Link 2026-02-08T21:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@TribeRuffner @elonmusk Haha one of my favorite WF skits. Used to run best of Will and Chris Farely religiously growing up"
X Link 2026-02-09T00:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@DDBlakeFischer @invest091 I honestly dont know other then M&A in the smaller deals is hard to come by and mega deals met with a lot of question marks on valuations / synergies but I caught this late today by a mate who shared the selloff with me"
X Link 2026-02-09T20:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"If that is the reason for the selloff that might be one of the dumbest selloffs Ive ever heard of These are all commercial insurance brokers doing pretty complex transactions. ChatGPT building some crappy tool to buy homeowners insurance through some insurance company in Spain sounds like pure promotion. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020964263272329401 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020964263272329401"
X Link 2026-02-09T20:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Never trust after hours but maybe just maybe the foundational layer AI mortgage player $BETR in what is an incredibly binary consumer product is finally getting noticed by some folks. Also if @truflation is remotely accurate Kevin Warsh has a lot of tools at his disposal once he takes office. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021011267561898174 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021011267561898174"
X Link 2026-02-10T00:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Empress_Cap @negligible_cap Who we liking the most right now $BRO been shot almost as bad as the Duolingo bird at this point. Always loved AJG"
X Link 2026-02-10T04:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@DJ_EBITDA Haha I thought we were friends 🍻"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"True but Neptune uses machine learning and AI their underwriting and claims process is 100% automated and agents can click and bind with them online so I dont really understand how a LLM disrupts that plus regulatory headache and hard to get capital to even want to touch flood insurance https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021624564464128019 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021624564464128019"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@HettyGreen2020 100% I was very public I wouldnt pay more than $1.8B cap and I still thought that was a little rich"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"I do not believe this is institutional shorting maybe some algos based on previous ATM announcements and pre-modeled dilution. A lot of shorts piled in after Eric Jackson published his interest in the name. It attracted a lot of dedicated shorts and doesnt strike me as traditional L/S type activity. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021635305812414598 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021635305812414598"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"The 1yrs slide of $DUOL is pretty wild to watch for a company thats financially solvent not sure if I have this right but 10x earnings Wife liked this app at one point but found it so annoying she deleted it. Anyway wow the green bird is bleeding out"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Mabiverse123 Local real estate agents have a very good pulse on local economics and things that never find their way to a database I agree"
X Link 2026-02-12T01:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Man of my word and sent a very polite note to @nejatian happy to help the OpenDoor team / model. Full disclosure have zero position in the company and I was genuinely curious what the model would price my house at. Thank you @nejatian $OPEN Had some fun last night ran my property through $OPEN to see what it would spit back in terms of a value its only off by about 50% lol I mean talk about not even being remotely close to in the ballpark I was in pretty detailed making sure it had everything. Who actually Had some fun last night ran my property through $OPEN to see what it would spit back in"
X Link 2026-02-12T12:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Vibe coding something very cool in Claude. Sadly this isnt an Industry Sector Equity Value destroying product like that really cool product ChatGPT built (JK that product is shit) but I think it fills a gap that doesnt exist in commercial insurance. Built the back end building the front end and jamming AI agents all over the platform as much as a non-coder can. Having fun spending most of my downtime walking the dog playing tennis and vibe coding outside of a hot winter tea with the wife. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021931577639333925 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021931577639333925"
X Link 2026-02-12T12:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@405HomeBuyer Did they think I would consider an offer well below market I respect a buy low sell high strategy but Im sitting on pure equity and cash/investment heavy so not just selling something willy nilly"
X Link 2026-02-12T13:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$PRCH pop today is a good test on why $XZO selloff is a bit silly. As per usual using whatever excess cash I have to buy up points of resistance. Similar models but different at the same time Ive been vibe coding personally but (1) agents mutuals and MGAs are not going to be vibe coding away from these regulated SaaS platforms and (2) $XZO is barely in any states anyone see the rate filing for Georgia I doubt it. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021958309188669668 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021958309188669668"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Had a really great and pleasant exchange with @nejatian there were some items in my property that make it hard for my town zoning to pick up and we flagged it as a gap that they are actively working on. Also it needed a complete assessment from me to take the initial offer to something more exact Im told. No position in the stock I dont even know much about it other then I wanted to see how it valued my property. We have some mutual friends and hope the best for $OPEN"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Kaz and I had a very pleasant exchange with one another this morning. I was genuinely trying to see how it valued my house. I dont think its helpful for either company $BETR or $OPEN to be at odds with one another theyre both pushing for an AI mission within separate real estate type verticals. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021968937718616100 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021968937718616100"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Just bought [---] shares of $PLMR please tell me this is a purely irrational sell off by Algos"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$XZO trading at 16x LTM and 13x forward guidance are we really valuing a company with +50% gross and 37% net margins like its a dinosaur 11x LTM FCF and 10x forward FCF. Good luck everyone"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@longwalkcapital Haha it can do everything Except a proper DCF Ive also tried using it for actuarial modeling etc Id score it a C- and littered with mistakes"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@TribeRuffner Day like today only down $0.97 and flat for since 9:45am Im feeling good we have a good base"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@masayoshisson @longwalkcapital I use Claude for vibe coding. How hard is a DCF that you need an AI to do it is kinda my take Its basic algebra"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Vibe coding engaged"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"In a sea of green. why is $ARX down on the day"
X Link 2025-12-23T16:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$BOW is a commercial insurer doing Healthcare Casualty and Management Liability. $LMND is a personal lines carrier doing Pet Renters and Auto. Very different businesses. I wouldnt trust $BOW reserves at all. I think its a grow at all cost carrier and maybe the try to sell it in whats expected to be a pretty active M&A cycle for carriers. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2004049722814689675 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2004049722814689675"
X Link 2025-12-25T04:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Fantastic write up by @KarstResearch on $ARDT. Only questions on my end are who are good peer valuation benchmarks (definitely seems to be trading cheap) and was the Mew Mexico PYD reserve charge a medical loss stop loss or other form of professional liability Merry Xmas Trying new format w/ thread. Ardent Health $ARDT. Healthcare provider operating acute care hospitals. IPO'd in July [----] at $16/sh currently trading at $9. EV $2.9B MC $1.28B 1/n https://t.co/SC5QXt2lqa Trying new format w/ thread. Ardent Health $ARDT. Healthcare provider operating acute care hospitals. IPO'd in July [----] at"
X Link 2025-12-26T14:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$ACGL has that magical PMI book that just freaking prints $$$ $EG a wounded soldier. $RNR a stud and has a large specialty and E&S book thats not reinsurance. More fish in the sea but those are the big names"
X Link 2025-12-27T03:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$XZO Price Targets. will have to do a write up on this name when I get some time. Price Targets: Truist (Buy) - $25 Citizens (Market Outperform) - $27 Cedar Street Research (Buy) - $30 (Path to $40 clear) $XZO has superior margins to $NP and I'd argue has a much more stable business model yet it trades at -62% discount to $NP. Research Commentary: "Trading at what we view as a notable depressed level in relation to strong forecast performance across revs profits and cash flow we think this represents an attractive buying opportunity." "TAM of $240B based on personal and. commercial property"
X Link 2026-01-02T21:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Per an $APO (Apollo) Report on the real estate market. Home Equity at and ATH of $35T. Nice if youre a disruptive software player in the Home Equity / HELOC business. $BETR $FIGR 18/ Household equity value in real estate currently sits at $35 trillion https://t.co/w5rc1S26im 18/ Household equity value in real estate currently sits at $35 trillion https://t.co/w5rc1S26im"
X Link 2026-01-11T00:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The lack of trading volume on $XZO is as expected. In addition to that you have a software company in a niche many probably dont fully understand. Simply meaning I dont expect people to understand how mutual insurance companies risk retention groups and MGAs purchase software systems. You have a brick wall of support via $HCI in there and have $2m of incremental insider buying by management over the course of [----]. This is a reminder to anyone making small sales that maybe doesnt fully grasp how a tight float works. $XZO lands [--] or [--] contracts this year they dont even have to be big and that"
X Link 2026-01-14T13:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$XZO hiring if your following it closely strikes me as a company getting their software product and process ready for new partnerships [--] business development role and [--] roles for software / product development treasury reinsurance and financial reporting"
X Link 2026-01-19T03:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Super long day and very tired why did $HNGE operating expenses balloon in [----] Growth seems exceptional product / service top tier and a good friend in the health tech investing space told me I should take a look at this name. Need to do more DD but if theres any good accounts that published any research or who a good job breaking it down Im all ears. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014892379095154701 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014892379095154701"
X Link 2026-01-24T02:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Who else has exposure to insurers and copper Even my core SaaS is up $XZO $BETR somehow dodged the drop today. should state "so far""
X Link 2026-01-29T17:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I love the volume on $XZO [----] shares traded lol"
X Link 2026-02-02T14:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@onion61314 @bentonc13 SaaS selloff which I find dumb on XZO since it's (1) tied to insurance revenue flows and (2) there's no AI company taking over the P&C insurance market. Palantir has tried and their head of insurance recently quit if that's any insight into how successful they have been"
X Link 2026-02-03T16:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Someone will have to explain to me how $XZO which provides software to legacy insurance companies and MGAs is somehow impacted by LLMs that don't provide a lick of service to these companies and have a regulatory wall to even get started in the sector. Not to mention homeowner insurance rates are up again in [----]. Anyway trading around 16x [----] and 14x [----] earnings works for me. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018788878988067149 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018788878988067149"
X Link 2026-02-03T20:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"And we have a earnings date $XZO honestly sooner then I would have expected"
X Link 2026-02-04T23:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@amitisinvesting I've been a net buyer on select names mainly $BETR and $XZO"
X Link 2026-02-05T19:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@BastianelliLore $HG probably fits that mold but it trades at a 7x PE and is up +56% in a year"
X Link 2026-02-08T15:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Entering a soft market in commercial so sustaining top line GWP growth at prior levels will be difficult. They are in long tail lines so they should benefit from all the float they generated as it flows through their net investment income. They are more equities quant based investors so less of an impact from the long end of the yield curve as fixed income isn't the focus. All in I just think it's cheap (subject to investment income volatility) but makes for a compelling hold"
X Link 2026-02-08T16:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@BastianelliLore Another cheap on is $HCI. They own +80% of $XZO and it's booked at cost $3 a share even though $XZO trades at $18 a share. If it were marked up $HCI would be trading at 1/2x PE ratio. Trapped value but market doesn't re-rate until the asset is usually sold off"
X Link 2026-02-08T16:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Sorry for using poor language but weve gone full retarded on AI. I would get Goosehead going down but anyone that thinks this disrupts commercial insurance brokers has no clue what they are talking about. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/insurance-broker-stocks-tumble-openai-204925570.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/insurance-broker-stocks-tumble-openai-204925570.html"
X Link 2026-02-09T22:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"What I find funny about the OpenAI promotional slop is that a company like $NP could announce they have an application built in ChatGPT that allows anyone looking for Flood insurance to access it via GPT. Algos will destroy the market value of anything insurance related and $NP stock wont rise in fact the way the markets are valuing this a partnership with GPT is actually really good for AI but horrible for your business the way the market is thinking about this literally doesnt make any sense. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021260001256308914"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Just caught this one late tonight quick 17min interview. If you know $BETR a lot of overview. One take away I found new and very cool. +40% of loans originated are approved and matched to a capital provider in under [--] minute and +80% in under [--] hours. Industry average I believe @vishal_better said was [--] days if Im not mistaken. 🔥 🔥 🔥 I sat down with Better CEO @vishal_better to discuss how they are using technology to get your mortgage rate lower. Enjoy https://t.co/iXMsjBKr7F I sat down with Better CEO @vishal_better to discuss how they are using technology to get your mortgage rate"
X Link 2026-02-11T05:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$NP getting clobbered but what isnt these days. Im really excited to see how ChatGPT and Anthropic can lasso +30 reinsurers for an insurance product no one wants to retain risk on with no proprietary data. I was a willing buyer of $NP around $1.5 to $2.0B pre-IPO. Re-rate continues https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021624111865245716 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021624111865245716"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@ALawrence718 Unfortunately $NP had an excessive SaaS multiple and it caught the wrath of Mr Market"
X Link 2026-02-11T20:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$NP oy vey BMO has Adj EBiTDA at $139m for [----] that implies a forward multiple of 18x at $2.5B cap. Its a little rich dont get me wrong a lot of upside in this stock long-term but holding my ground at buying once its in a range of $1.5B to $1.8B. Watching for floors"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Slim_to_No_Odds Theyve had a tough market ride"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@0xHorseman @claudeai I need to upgrade from $20 to $100 I dont want to switch over to Codex entirely because I like Claude and built up a lot on Claude. OpenAI must be losing a fortune if they are letting engineers build endlessly"
X Link 2026-02-13T01:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"$ASIC couldn't have had a stronger quarter and Wells Fargo drops their target from $24 to $23. Unbelievable. Would love to understand their rationale if anyone has a copy. Increasing national distribution adding new products improving operating leverage increasing property rates (soft market). Maybe it had to do with the ridiculous question asking for a full 2yrs guidance lol https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1981369780268650506 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1981369780268650506"
X Link 2025-10-23T14:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Wow hard not to laugh at this Wells Fargo dropped $ASIC by $1 because they didnt like the management was taking a conservative approach with their Property loss picks lol Would they rather them be ultra aggressive Shaking my head"
X Link 2025-10-23T22:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Welcome to the world Octave Specialty Group and good bye to the Ambac name and anything Puerto Rico. $AMBC is now $OSG https://octavegroup.com/investor-relations/financials/sec-filings/default.aspx https://octavegroup.com/investor-relations/financials/sec-filings/default.aspx"
X Link 2025-11-10T22:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Was asked by a friend FYI 33% of my portfolio (Specialty P&C concentration) has a weighted average 12.6x PE and 1.6x PB [----] multiple. Some might call it boring I call it consistent (returns might suprise folks) and helps me sleep at night when the market pulls back. I recently increased my allocation to P&C names ever so slightly with my biggest allocations going to $HG $AIG and $PLMR in that order remain long some big tech names $GOOG the largest and some specialty insurance tech names like $MAX that are not included in those multiples above as well as some infrastructure and mortgage/real"
X Link 2025-11-20T15:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Still hanging on to $ASIC. Growing profitable and cheap. 9.8x [----] PE Ratio well below peers. Tons of regional distribution still untapped and product suite still limited"
X Link 2025-11-24T13:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@onion61314 Nice not from AM Best on our friends at $ASIC. Stock was so beaten up when everyone else with their growth is at a 15x multiple right now"
X Link 2025-12-10T16:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Based on everything I've read and listening to managements earnings call it seems like $ASIC product roadmap and state expansion is still going to be robust next year which leads me to believe growth isn't slowing down anytime soon. SME rates are also holding up much better than mid market / large commercial rates from what I understand. I do agree I think $KNSL are likely better underwriters. They are up nicely today. I think their biggest problem is you have a slew of carriers Richmond National Hamilton Ategrity WRB launched a new E&S carrier AIG via Lexington is back better than ever etc."
X Link 2025-12-11T21:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Howden effectively poached a crap load of big brokerage talent from $MMC $AON $AJG $WTW etc. this does seem like it will lead to a huge settlement. https://www.insurancetimes.co.uk/news/aon-alleges-calculated-and-egregious-trade-secret-theft-by-howden/1457282.article https://www.insurancetimes.co.uk/news/aon-alleges-calculated-and-egregious-trade-secret-theft-by-howden/1457282.article"
X Link 2025-12-15T16:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$ASIC was chronically sold off [--] months ago for reasons that really didn't appear to make a ton of sense. Glad to see it north of $20 a share again. Did we move it JK. Everything got slaughtered today and $ASIC ripped +7%. I like what I see in the stamp data. https://t.co/9MsInR0hQa Did we move it JK. Everything got slaughtered today and $ASIC ripped +7%. I like what I see in the stamp data. https://t.co/9MsInR0hQa"
X Link 2025-12-17T19:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Green day overall but it was nice to see $PLMR $ASIC and $SKWD have a nice run at it"
X Link 2025-12-18T23:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$AIG going full port on growth mode. Now considering $EG Latin American business which wasn't included in their initial renewal rights deal"
X Link 2025-12-22T13:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$NP I struggle with. $4.1B market cap and $4.4B enterprise value. These are the most basic financials on the planet thinking more about earnings than an adjusted EBITDA metric (SBC is insignificant same with depreciation and IPO costs are easy to calculate) figure as it just seems unnecessary per a valuation benchmark. Earnings this year will be around $55m and let's call it $70m next year (+25% growth). Heavy L/T debt load of $248m so should probably be a measure on enterprise value rather than market cap. LTM would be 80x and the forward multiple around 63x. I understand there is limited"
X Link 2025-12-23T17:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"This is not investment advice. I just see a similar IPO story to $ARX where not a lot of folks understand this segment of the insurance market there's a lack of peer comp valuation data $GWRE $PRCH $NP $HGTY (Vertical SaaS EV/EBITDA multiples for this type of company average 30x to 50x) and you have a company at the very beginning of their growth story trading at what I'd argue is well below it's intrinsic value or 10x roughly on [----] guidance. Could they struggle to land additional 3rd party carriers sure. Do I see them getting at a minimum [--] to [--] new ones this year yes."
X Link 2026-01-02T21:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$BETR and $XZO long $BOW and $SKWD short Long thesis: growth from partnerships and operating leverage kicking in. Short thesis: not buying with reserves are accurate. $SKWD strikes me as way too aggressive with UW leverage and growth. $BOW product mix is too concentrated and they are growing in historically unprofitable segments i.e. celebrating strong growth in Public D&O last earnings call when everyone who did [--] seconds of DD knows the rate environment in that market is an absolute shit show. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2007264034949587117"
X Link 2026-01-03T01:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Similar but different $ARX is a hybrid fronting company model that generates similar fee income but has some marginal balance sheet risk tied to the underwriting. Around 6% of written premium. $ARX also (almost entirely) builds and partners with commercial insurance MGAs. $XZO is pure fee business no balance sheet risk and right now is dedicated to homeowners and it seems like commercial property products would be in the cards in the future. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008750862596751545 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008750862596751545"
X Link 2026-01-07T04:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"For agency driven business I like the idea of platforms like $XZO and even Porch group from a fundamental perspective because they all built a foundational AI/ML platform that includes a ton of insurance and non-insurance related services like you said. Agency channel still dominates the homeowners channel anyone buying direct probably has no clue what theyre doing and inadequate coverage like poor replacement cost (no extended) etc https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010377479374901482 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010377479374901482"
X Link 2026-01-11T15:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"This is more a joke but what are the chances Apex Star filed this endorsement because of the Somali Day Care fraud in Minnesota As a reference Apex Star is a client of $XZO"
X Link 2026-01-14T15:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Just running some numbers below are entities that utilize the $XZO platform: Citizens Takeouts Effective 10/21/25: Tailrow Exchange - [-----] citizen takeouts Homeowners Choice - [-----] citizen takeouts TypTap - [-----] citizen takeouts Citizens Takeouts Effective 12/16/25: Praxis - [-----] citizen takeouts Apex Star - [-----] citizen takeouts These are all going to be effective 10/21/2025 (Q4 2025). Praxis will be effective 12/16/25 and Apex Star 12/1/25 confirmed by @coverager. If the average homeowners premium is $4400 ($1200 for Wind Only which is 5% of these policies) for a $300000 Dwelling"
X Link 2026-01-22T02:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@AuditTheHerd $XZO target partner is $50m to $1B but in reality its going to be a lot of small companies no ones ever heard of between $50m and $250m and likely a lot of startups with $0 that just want a NIL integration SaaS solution"
X Link 2026-01-22T12:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"This might be the dumbest idea ever but Im also running a [---] fever at the moment so give me some grace. Could $BETR get a PMI carrier to front the origination / warehouse risk via their licensed mortgage / financial guaranty insurance company (could also use assured guaranty in lieu of PMI or Credit markets) and have them cede 100% of the risk through a vehicle such as ILS capacity and/or Single Risk Credit Insurers like Hartford / AIG / Lloyds until the loan is securitized so they do not have to worry about dilution Again my brain works in mysterious ways so if this makes no sense please"
X Link 2026-01-25T03:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Insurers in the ILS market dont really care about the balance sheet of the issuer permitted the ILS collateral is secured by a highly rated asset such as a government guaranteed mortgage /securitization"
X Link 2026-01-25T03:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The more I thought about it the more I think Assured Guaranty or a similar financial guaranty / single risk credit carrier (Hartford etc) could guarantee the loans so the warehouse facility would increase in size knowing there is a AA guarantee behind it. Would just be a short term cover but would likely be 10-100bps. Hartford and a few single risk carriers have done some really unique quota share deals in the banking world to help with guarantees and bank RWA relief. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015772982044496043 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015772982044496043"
X Link 2026-01-26T13:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"I have given $HG GOAT status just wish I bought more and a very nice bounce off of $38 for the boys in blue at $ORI"
X Link 2026-02-06T03:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Broker M&A cycle crushing valuations $AJG $BRO $MMC $AON $WTW Once the darlings of the insurance market they know look like they have palantir like multiples"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I cant help but laugh but $BETR short interest is [---] million shares short 🤣😂🤣 theres only [---] million available shares to trade These guys are going to get clobbered at a certain point. This is as of Jan [--] [----] if I had to guess its probably even higher and that doesnt include dark pool volume which tacks it up to almost [---] million shares short. [--] days to close. Imagine what the actual price would trade at if this was a normal 1-5% short interest which at those volumes is typically just hedging versus what were dealing with in a coordinate attack."
X Link 2026-02-11T14:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Slim_to_No_Odds lol this made me chuckle"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Icing on the cake is $DUOL in the green right now"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I shouldve bought the $PlMR dip more aggressively that was the dumbest sell off Ive ever seen"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@DJ_EBITDA $HG GOAT today"
X Link 2026-02-12T19:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Cmon $BETR you have 35min and [--] cents plus [--] to make my daily prediction come true"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"The biggest thing @claudeai won't tell you is the token usage is extremely limited even for pro users. But they will disrupt everything lol"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@realnotbuffett @claudeai It is but Im using codex which they are happy to burn tokens at a loss. it seems Claude is way tighter on the budget"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@realnotbuffett @claudeai I agree But also there is a data and energy limitation here which Im reflecting on a small scale that none of these companies will admit and LLMs are not AGI which none of them will admit"
X Link 2026-02-13T01:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@realnotbuffett @claudeai Cmon I cant promote for [--] days lol"
X Link 2026-02-13T01:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@TyRobben @realnotbuffett @claudeai @RepoPrompt Claude driving me a little nuts one wrong prompt and you can deplete 10% of your tokens"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@TyRobben @realnotbuffett @claudeai @RepoPrompt That being said built something cool might need you and a few insurance friends on here to give her a test run once complete"
X Link 2026-02-13T03:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@tvmetguy @Leah_tinman @Mabiverse123 I don't know but in the world of insurance those same states are very strict with AI usage as well. That will change just give them time. Folks moving out of CA in droves"
X Link 2026-02-14T01:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@danielsethlewis Your last sentence is always my favorite but I also dont think your wrong. Had a long conservation with a good mate whos a kiwi yesterday and I said its a market rotation its not just tech focused money is moving"
X Link 2026-02-14T05:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@TribeRuffner @Ironic_Ape I track NPL/NCO/TDR very closely here in the states. Average FICO is [---] is so very little subprime if any. Credit quality and asset quality are a nothing burger here"
X Link 2026-02-14T15:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@DJ_EBITDA @CEOStockWatcher $SPGI I really like"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Why has the CA Stamping office not included $ASIC in their reports Are folks sleeping on their Q3 growth I honestly don't know definitively it's hard to say not knowing what they are doing in CA. As a benchmark $ASIC was up +27% in California on June [--] [----]. I doubt the growth plummeted in a quarter knowing how challenging that market can be. NTM PE is 10x cheap all things considered. For the insurance nerds out their like myself their age to age factors aren't the best but it's early days. If I had to guess I think they are going to print +15% top line growth in Q3. @linglingfool"
X Link 2025-10-10T14:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Did we move it JK. Everything got slaughtered today and $ASIC ripped +7%. I like what I see in the stamp data. Why has the CA Stamping office not included $ASIC in their reports Are folks sleeping on their Q3 growth I honestly don't know definitively it's hard to say not knowing what they are doing in CA. As a benchmark $ASIC was up +27% in California on June [--] [----]. I doubt the https://t.co/sC4w4eVYNG Why has the CA Stamping office not included $ASIC in their reports Are folks sleeping on their Q3 growth I honestly don't know definitively it's hard to say not knowing what they are doing in"
X Link 2025-10-10T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$CNA historical statutory underwriting performance. ($22.5B) in underwriting losses from [----] to YTD [----]. Is AM Best smoking crack https://news.ambest.com/pr/PressContent.aspxaltsrc=2&refnum=36811 https://news.ambest.com/pr/PressContent.aspxaltsrc=2&refnum=36811"
X Link 2025-12-05T20:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"It's a wild one to track permitted $XZO lands a couple of 3rd party contracts the valuation on $HCI is kind of crazy per your commentary. When will the market realize it is the tricky part does it take a sell down in the position to realize the gain for folks to appreciate that trapped value https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019431410457522312 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019431410457522312"
X Link 2026-02-05T15:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"My bold bet of the day is that $BETR finishes in the green 🍏"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"$GBLI old faithful $21k in trading volume. Your dollars are safe"
X Link 2026-02-12T19:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Cracked a green candle on $BETR My bold bet of the day is that $BETR finishes in the green 🍏 My bold bet of the day is that $BETR finishes in the green 🍏"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Remember when $PLMR dipped to $117 yesterday thankful for Mr Market"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"IMO will make it but it will run into a brick wall its over valued inference is profitable today scaling will get crippled at a certain point due to R&D scaling limitations and product improvement deceleration. Google does not have this problem due to their flywheel and cash generation"
X Link 2026-02-13T21:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@danielsethlewis Im learning slowly how much BS is built into the LLM thesis what do I know Claude is only plugging in GPT for me"
X Link 2026-02-14T04:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Could happen Im more in the camp of high interest rates are a pretty powerful tool. Gives you the ability to drop the front end of the yield curve which in theory stimulates the economy and lowers the cost of capital for most companies. Theres also the function of home equity historical high and thats the main volume not mortgages. Also refi business was a $5B business at one point and now its basically $0. Theres just some massive catalysts with this one. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022695074274988445 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022695074274988445"
X Link 2026-02-14T15:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@Mabiverse123 @DJ_EBITDA Without a doubt I unfortunately cant control the long or short end of the yield curve and I cant stop an economic slow down"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@mattscottcap Ive been long and short names over the years $OSCR was a recent example of short trade long outlook. Worked well. $AGL just short. Oddly enough I never traded Lemonade but always remain open to shifting dynamics in a business"
X Link 2025-11-25T04:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Had an enlightening conversation with a very smart individual at Blackstone today. He said $AGL and $OMDA are dog shit. $AGL I knew the long-term contract capatation model was broken but his take on GLP-1 and the fact that $OMDA entire business is setup to get employees healthy so they dont need to be on overly expensive GLP-1 is good but the downside is the cheaper pill version that is coming out is a huge threat to how their entire business model works. He basically thinks companies wont need them nearly as much in the future. He admitted he could be wrong but he seemed pretty confident its"
X Link 2026-01-24T04:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Personal auto market in transition. State Farm and Progressive reduced rates in [--] states plus Washington DC. [--] states have -10% rate decreases or more. $PGR only a matter of time before $EVER and $MAX benefit from the increased CAC which "should" show up in Q1 [----] and beyond. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019436814436647254 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019436814436647254"
X Link 2026-02-05T15:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Next time someone says Claude is taking over an industry a gentle reminder they are literally trying to partner with legacy insurance companies no different than how Palantir partners with $AIG (1) because they dont have the decades upon decades of proprietary data (2) because they cant be a regulated entity in every regulated business in every regulated region (3) they dont have infinite amounts of capital and (4) agents are literally just a SaaS business. $LMND $ROOT and every company that taps into this stuff benefits from there solutions they dont get upended and disrupted."
X Link 2026-02-06T11:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Had some fun last night ran my property through $OPEN to see what it would spit back in terms of a value its only off by about 50% lol I mean talk about not even being remotely close to in the ballpark I was in pretty detailed making sure it had everything. Who actually sells a home through this platform https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021723661045023096 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021723661045023096"
X Link 2026-02-11T23:10Z [----] followers, 38.2K engagements

"Seems like the smartest guys in the room can see past the noise Software probably bottomed. https://t.co/PKIkq7hxOx Software probably bottomed. https://t.co/PKIkq7hxOx"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@michaeljburry Whats up with $FOUr"
X Link 2026-02-14T04:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$BETR [--] day stretch post SaaS event horizon"
X Link 2026-02-13T21:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Question for a rookie wanna be vibe coder. Why is @claudeai using @OpenAI for certain tasks"
X Link 2026-02-13T22:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@claudeai By the way OpenAI smoked it and is analyzing all sorts of loss runs in a lot of different formats flawlessly and Claude literally was operating at a 1st grade level and failing everytime fascinating"
X Link 2026-02-13T22:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"My thesis is simple. Why does Claude use GPT for certain API functions. Huge red flag for me. Ive been vibe coding with Sonnet and Opus. Opus is clearly much better and I had to upgrade because Claude is very strict with token usage. Both Claude and Opus appear to require help from GPT when it comes to their AI agents. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023002959148143005 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023002959148143005"
X Link 2026-02-15T11:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

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