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@CapexAndChill Avatar @CapexAndChill CapexAndChill

CapexAndChill posts on X about $nu, $meli, $se, brazil the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.

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Mentions: XX #

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Followers: XXXXX #

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Social Influence

Social category influence stocks #2027 finance #5424 countries XXXXX% technology brands XXXXX% automotive brands XXXX% currencies XXXX% cryptocurrencies XXXX% social networks XXXX%

Social topic influence $nu #4, $meli #9, $se #8, brazil #1053, $uber #35, mexico #2117, hidden #1211, sea 5.14%, business #950, bank #503

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @ruchernchong @qualityinvest5 @latticeinvestor @manuinvests @realroseceline @pronkdaniel @smartfinapp @benmartin661251 @garpandchill @matkinvest @alexand92792198 @hughyjass58 @bia42175 @billackman @uber @smsutherland @bradmur32528398 @sashinvesting @leadingedgetle @bagholderiq

Top assets mentioned NuCypher (NU) MercadoLibre Inc (MELI) Sea Limited (SE) Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Metadium (META) Snap, Inc. (SNAP) Goldman Sachs (GS) StoneCo Ltd. Class A Common Shares (STNE) Block, Inc. (XYZ) Adobe, Inc. (ADBE) PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Interlay (INTR) Walmart, Inc. (WMT)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"Is $NU still dislocated I would say so. this business is still in heavy growth mode in key markets If they wanted to expand margins immediately they could but they are long-term focused. 🔥"
X Link 2025-12-12T01:11Z 4179 followers, 2941 engagements

"$STNE is a buyback machine now. Thanks @ManuInvests for the insight"
X Link 2025-12-13T16:04Z 4179 followers, 1885 engagements

"Been looking more at the $NU engineering talks. Most think its just a neobank. but looking at the plumbing. its actually starting to look like a data company that happens to lend money. The gap against incumbents (Ita Bradesco) isn't just better app design. Its the credit architecture. Most banks use tabular models to guess if you'll pay them back. $NU shifted to Foundation Models. The same tech behind LLMs. They are treating transaction history like a language not a spreadsheet. Sequencing matters and its something traditional banks do not seem to account for. Spending $XX at a bar after a"
X Link 2025-12-15T02:13Z 4179 followers, 7664 engagements

"The thesis for $MELI $UBER $SE etc is more about what management is doing to to maintain and increase dominance. Is management focused on long-term value Are they willing to accept short-term pain for long-term gain Everybody is focused on the shiny new competitors. The thesis is that management is already executing the necessary steps to mitigate these issues and make the business stronger. If the management is not doing this then its a thesis breaker"
X Link 2025-12-10T18:50Z 4178 followers, 25.3K engagements

"@BenTenGolds $MELI over XX% $SE I just started adding recently I think its nearing 3%"
X Link 2025-12-10T23:17Z 4178 followers, XXX engagements

"I will probably regret doing this but if you have to choose one what would you choose $MELI vs $SE Leave your reasoning in the comments"
X Link 2025-12-11T15:07Z 4178 followers, 10.8K engagements

"Let's quickly walk through what the market is implying for $NU Annualized GAAP Net Income: $3.13B ($783M x 4) True Owner Earnings: $2.85B (Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx) Valuation: At $81B Market Cap ($16.90/share) it trades at 28.5x current owner earnings. The S-Curve 28x is expensive for a bank but cheap for a tech monopoly growing at 39%. The bet comes down to which one $NU is. Maybe its a blend of both Brazil: Already a mature cash cow (VERY HIGH ROE not the XX% consolidated amount). Mexico: The growth engine. Q3 data shows Mexico ARPAC hitting $XXXXX allowing it to perform even"
X Link 2025-12-13T01:14Z 4179 followers, 5671 engagements

"@YasirBahrani I cant keep up 🤣 And the tsla argument is cost structure will win. Well in 5-10 years cost structure will be negligible and right now cost structure is holding TSLA back from actually functioning as a robotaxi without a passenger monitoring"
X Link 2025-12-15T11:23Z 4178 followers, 8772 engagements

"Dara's execution on $UBER has been exceptional and I think under-appreciated. Most favor a founder-led business but @dkhos took a company burning billions a year in 2017 and is now printing $2.2B in Free Cash Flow per quarter. The smartest move was actually selling the self-driving unit (ATG) while keeping the stake back in 2020. Instead of burning cash on R&D he positioned Uber as the liquidity layer for whoever wins the AV race (Waymo Cruise etc). Uber doesn't own the robots it owns the demand"
X Link 2025-12-16T03:27Z 4179 followers, 18.9K engagements

"@QualityInvest5 Nah bro tsla is eating $uber's lunch I spotted an empty robotaxi in austin. Its over"
X Link 2025-12-16T16:41Z 4179 followers, 1134 engagements

"@hollertotide @HL3133 @dkhos Yeah i will get started vibe coding a few of these mega cap companies for some extra revenue. Should be very easy 🤣"
X Link 2025-12-16T17:25Z 4178 followers, XX engagements

"@wormelow1 Very close to it They are more of an issuer and acquirer. For example the $meli credit card is on $v rails So yes they are also a mix of $adyen & $xyz 🤣 So fascinating right"
X Link 2025-11-27T03:59Z 3113 followers, XXX engagements

"@q_pitcairn @GabGrowth Doesnt the latest tax regulation in Brazil hurt CBT a lot Shopee is over XX% localized now. They have become the online marketplace for local street vendors"
X Link 2025-11-28T23:54Z 4020 followers, XX engagements

"The real 2025 story of $SE is its structural decoupling of monetization from volume. They aren't just selling more. They are squeezing significantly more margin out of every transaction through three widening moats: Shopee is now an Ad-Tech Beast: Ad revenue (+70%) is growing 2.5x faster than GMV (+28%). This isn't just traffic. It's AI-driven conversion (+10% YoY). They have successfully shifted the revenue mix toward high-margin ad spend. The "All-Can-Apply" Alpha: SeaMoney added 5M borrowers in XX days by switching from conservative whitelisting to real-time algorithmic underwriting. Risky"
X Link 2025-11-29T01:02Z 3877 followers, 3595 engagements

"$ADBE Q3 FY25 Risk Verification: The AI Disruption thesis is collapsing under the weight of data. Doing a forensic analysis of the latest quarter confirms Adobe is successfully pivoting from a Tool vendor to an AI Operating System. Here is the data breakdown on AI revenue moats and risks. X The Real AI Revenue Forget the vague $5B AI-Influenced metric. The signal is AI-First ARR surpassing $250M (Firefly/Acrobat AI standalone SKUs). Insight: This proves distinct willingness to pay for AI utility separate from the core creative license. Monetization is real not theoretical. X The Defensive"
X Link 2025-12-04T15:16Z 3199 followers, 3274 engagements

"@GarpandChill Im jealous. Never had a position in $nu. Always admired it from afar 🤣 Based on the latest valuations that is prob the move though 🤝"
X Link 2025-12-05T16:24Z 3163 followers, XXX engagements

"While $MELI just secured Investment Grade terms its primary challengers ( $SE & $NU) are still rated Speculative. Here are my thoughts of why this $750M issuance is a strategic moat.👇 The Weapon ($750M @ 4.90%) $MELI successfully issued $750M in 2033 notes at 4.90%. Demand: 3.6x oversubscribed (Investors offered $2.7B). Rating: BBB- (Investment Grade). Context: This is their first issuance since achieving IG status. Why does this matter Because access to cheap USD liquidity is the ultimate divider in emerging markets. Vs. Nubank (The Credit Rating Gap) Nu is a beast but global credit markets"
X Link 2025-12-05T21:21Z 3307 followers, 7682 engagements

"Here are the X critical alpha signals for $ASML: X The Packaging Pivot (XT:260) While the market obsesses over nanometers ASML quietly shipped the TWINSCAN XT:260 in Q3. The Fact: Its an i-line scanner with 4x the productivity of legacy tools. The Alpha: This is a direct play on Advanced Packaging (CoWoS). ASML is no longer just the bottleneck for making the chip. They are now selling the shovel for packaging it. The single biggest constraint for $NVDA & $AMD right now. X Memory is the New Logic The consensus was that High-NA EUV was a Logic-only ( $TSM / $INTC ) tool for years. The Fact:"
X Link 2025-12-06T01:18Z 3980 followers, 1160 engagements

"@Matkinvest Spot on regarding the cohorts That maturity curve is the hidden leverage in the model. As those older cohorts age they aren't just sticking around but are compounding revenue while the cost to serve stays flat. That operating leverage $NU possesses is huge Thank you"
X Link 2025-12-06T22:59Z 3322 followers, XXX engagements

"@GarpandChill $NU & $MELI are really in a league of their own in LatAm"
X Link 2025-12-07T02:42Z 3783 followers, XXX engagements

"Im pretty much in the same position. I think $MELI is the sleep at night pick for long term holders. The upside and moat is infinite longterm. $NU on the hand is operating so well and will continue to cross sell and make more money from its current user base as it continues to scale. They are both very compelling"
X Link 2025-12-07T15:30Z 3322 followers, XXX engagements

"The $NU Moat is Impressive Most people look at Nubank and see a fast-growing bank. They are missing the architectural reality. Nu isn't just disrupting fee structures but also executing a classic Nick Sleep playbook (Scale Economies Shared) that makes competition almost mathematically impossible. Here is the data on the X pillars of their moat: X. The Nick Sleep Test (Scale Economies) The core thesis of Nomad Investment Partnership was Scale Economies Shared: passing cost savings to customers to drive volume creating a flywheel incumbents can't match. The Data: Nus Cost to Serve is stuck at"
X Link 2025-12-08T03:36Z 3443 followers, 12.3K engagements

"$NU isnt just a bank anymore 🟣 Its a self-funding volatility machine. Most analysts are obsessed with USER GROWTH slowing down in Brazil. I think this is an oversight of what is actually brewing. Heres the paradox most analysts miss: The Saturation Myth: Everyone has a Nubank card already. Kinda true. XX% of adults do in Brazil. But market share wallet share. They own the users (100M+) but only X% of the profit pool. The next decade isnt about finding new people but about migrating the 100M+ from just cheap payments to high-yield secured loans. The Reinvestment Engine: This is the Compounder"
X Link 2025-12-08T17:01Z 4018 followers, 6620 engagements

"Deep dive for $NU will be available on the substack within a week or so. In the meantime check out my recent analysis of $MELI's margin compression near zero CAC and their slow-shipping layer 😎"
X Link 2025-12-08T17:01Z 3062 followers, XXX engagements

"Most AI strategies are just chatbots. Nubanks is looking like a structural moat. While incumbents rely on static logistic regression $NU deployed nuFormer. This is a Transformer model that treats transaction history like a language. The result They spot Invisible Prime borrowers that legacy algos reject. They leave the actual bad risks for competitors. 🤣 That isn't just better math. It is weaponizing their structural advantage"
X Link 2025-12-09T03:51Z 3958 followers, 5459 engagements

"Researching $NU for a deep-dive on substack. While I'm working on it make sure to check out my recent $MELI deep dive (FREE and I would say it came out well 🤣)"
X Link 2025-12-09T03:51Z 3986 followers, XXX engagements

"Brazil's Fintech Battle: High Rates Big Wins 📈 Brazil's high interest rates used to crush fintech funding costs favoring big banks. BUT 2025 has been a major turning point $NU has hit a massive $38.8B in deposits driving its cost of funding to XX% of the interbank rate. They're now funding lending with cheap customer money and not expensive wholesale debt. This shift flips the script. Massive scale is officially the new incumbent advantage. 🔥"
X Link 2025-12-09T06:26Z 2979 followers, 1496 engagements

"In my opinion the "Nu Killer" narrative is dead on arrival for the Revolut launch 🦄 $NU has 13M+ users & the OXXO network (cash is still king). 🛍 $MELI is how people actually eat shop and pay bills. ✈ Revolut is. a great travel card for the top 1%. Nu & Meli are building financial infrastructure. Revolut is catering to a niche market. This isn't a war it's market segmentation"
X Link 2025-12-09T15:10Z 3476 followers, 3271 engagements

"Totally agree the UX is slick and globally its a great product. But specifically in Mexico Main Bank status requires winning the ground war on cash access (OXXO partnership) and yield. $NU locked that down years ago. Revolut is fighting a massive uphill battle on infrastructure vs. an incumbent with $X cost-to-serve. They will likely succeed in a niche market but mass adoption will be difficult"
X Link 2025-12-09T16:07Z 3756 followers, XXX engagements

"$NU looking like it will have a lot of growth levers soon Brazil: Cash cow 🐄 Mexico: Aggressive scaling 📈 (tracking faster than Brazil) Colombia: Future option ✨(tracking similarly to Brazil) They're using Brazil's profits to fund growth. Plus they're de-risking the whole thing with safe secured loans"
X Link 2025-12-10T07:21Z 4013 followers, 1542 engagements

"You could only choose one. What would it be"
X Link 2025-12-10T07:27Z 4098 followers, 7903 engagements

"Wall Street hates the margin compression in $NU Mexico. Long-term investors should love it. The cash burn is actually a calculated capital allocation play to lock in a massive funding advantage before 2026. Here is my math behind the $6B+ hidden moat in Nu Mexico (subscribe for FREE and I plan to put out a deep dive on $NU soon):"
X Link 2025-12-10T11:10Z 3865 followers, 5293 engagements

"@ruchernchong Thats $NU(w) to me"
X Link 2025-12-10T13:57Z 3047 followers, XXX engagements

"Not sure if the market has even caught on to this yet for $MELI & $NU 🤣"
X Link 2025-12-10T17:14Z 2985 followers, 4137 engagements

"Results are in folks and not sure if my audience is skewed to like $MELI more over $NU but I tend to agree. Both incredible companies (I own both now) but the longterm investor cannot ignore the extremely unique flywheel that $MELI possesses"
X Link 2025-12-11T13:51Z 4025 followers, 5586 engagements

"@BagholderIQ @DividendDynasty It has its own $pypl $adyen and $cof 🤣"
X Link 2025-12-11T16:04Z 4100 followers, XXX engagements

"@davey_juice Wow surprised you chose $NU. I admit over the next couple of years $NU has a huge efficiency advantage but for the long-term I just tend to favor $MELI and its infinite pool of optionality. Both definitely outperform"
X Link 2025-12-11T21:31Z 4001 followers, XXX engagements

"@LatticeInvestor I think $SE has great management and is doing the right thing. Its just tougher competition in SEA. I would say this could eventually make it come out stronger. Less certainty than $mei though"
X Link 2025-12-12T00:08Z 4055 followers, XXX engagements

"The more I dig into $NU the more it makes sense. $MELI wins on defense (logistics/local moat flywheel ecosystem). But $NU wins on offense (global optionality). The Asset-Light banking model travels where warehouses can't. With the US charter filing last quarter $NU's ceiling isn't just LatAm. If their TAM becomes global then $MELI is capped in LatAm (still a huge runway) while $NU isn't"
X Link 2025-12-12T04:23Z 3964 followers, 3393 engagements

"$NU banks strategic reason for picking the US also has to do with increasing its offerings for LatAm customers that travel/live in the US too. While they do this they will be able to serve the underserved. The US could be a huge market for them though especially if they could successfully move up market"
X Link 2025-12-12T14:43Z 2921 followers, XXX engagements

"Nucel is an odd part of $NU (nus new mobile plan). Initially you would think its a low-margin mvno. I think theyre missing the point. Its not a telecom play. Its a data trojan horse. The hardest part of banking in LatAm is underwriting people with zero history. How do you score them ✅ Location consistency (do they sleep at the same place) ✅ Top-up regularity (cash flow proxy) ✅ Social graph (who are they calling) Market would likely value this at 1x telecom sales. If it lowers CAC and cuts default rates by even a fraction. the real value is hidden in the risk models"
X Link 2025-12-12T21:13Z 3992 followers, 2091 engagements

"Its digital infrastructure for LatAm at this point. Only caveat is that maintaining that status is getting pricey. They have to fend off Shopee on the commerce side and $NU on the banking side simultaneously. Its definitely built to last and the focus on long-term value is key 🔑"
X Link 2025-12-12T23:44Z 3821 followers, XX engagements

"@QualityInvest5 A lot of $ASML at these levels imo"
X Link 2025-12-13T02:07Z 4105 followers, 1129 engagements

"@ManuInvests Didnt know they were so buyback heavy wow"
X Link 2025-12-13T15:45Z 3936 followers, XXX engagements

"@HughyJass58 @ManuInvests This is something I have been meaning to do. We will get there eventually. I have been more focused on $NU this week 🤣"
X Link 2025-12-13T16:20Z 3619 followers, XX engagements

"In the meantime I already shared my thoughts on $NU's cashburn in Mexico:"
X Link 2025-12-13T16:47Z 4014 followers, XXX engagements

"@QualityInvest5 $SNAP is basically charging users to hold their memories hostage. If $META ships a "One-Click Import" tool + free storage then they remove the last real switching cost keeping people on the app. CAC perfectly disguised as a public service 🤣"
X Link 2025-12-14T04:43Z 4017 followers, XXX engagements

"Listen to the latest earnings call Incredible management Improving their insurance headwinds with AI partnership with $NVDA for self-driving OEMs last-mile and fast delivery. By the time an AV can cover 80-90% of the places humans can there will be several AV players that will be competing in big cities (largest demand and typically where AVs map first). Basically the top AVs will only have advantages over newer ones in niche areas lile suburbs inter-city (we are a long way from this happening at scale though). The armchair investor fear is that AVs are already here so $UBER must lose. (They"
X Link 2025-12-14T15:58Z 4093 followers, XXX engagements

"@Bia42175 Great list and I own most of them myself"
X Link 2025-12-14T20:36Z 3877 followers, XXX engagements

"@PronkDaniel @BillAckman @Uber Thanks Daniel ❤"
X Link 2025-12-15T20:17Z 4087 followers, XXX engagements

"The fintech battle in is an interesting battle royale ⚔ to watch 2025 has transitioned from growth at all costs to ruthless efficiency and ecosystem lock-in Most interesting players: $NU $MELI $INTR & $SE Who is winning is a nuanced answer"
X Link 2025-11-26T17:44Z 4168 followers, 1020 engagements

"Next $MELI Deep Dive: The Scuttlebutt Stress Test from Philip Fisher The headline number is hard to ignore: Q3 2025 marked the 27th consecutive quarter of revenue growth above XX% (hitting +39% YoY). BUT the real story is in the margins. Here is the reality of $MELI's business from the lens of Philip Fisher's Scuttlebutt Approach: X. The Productive Pain of Logistics Bears point to margin compression. The Scuttlebutt reveals it's a defensive weapon. Fact: MELI lowered the free shipping threshold in Brazil again. Result: Items Sold growth accelerated to XX% in Q3 (vs XX% prev qtr). Insight:"
X Link 2025-12-06T22:23Z 4171 followers, 27.8K engagements

"@fintegrate I am with you $SE has entered the accumulation zone 😏"
X Link 2025-12-09T01:02Z 4165 followers, XXX engagements

"The Alpha Many Missed in $MELI's Latest Motley Fool Interview: The Lazy Oligopoly Arbitrage. Most investors model MELI against $AMZN or Shopee's $SE. MELI isn't just winning because they ship fast. They are winning because LatAm banks are broken. Here is the structural market failure they are exploiting (many investors often miss). The Setup: Extreme Concentration In the US thousands of banks fight for your deposit. In Mexico the top X banks hold XX% of assets. In Brazil the top X hold 72%. When you own the market you don't need to innovate. You just collect rents. SVP Leandro Cuccioli calls"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:28Z 4165 followers, 4860 engagements

"In SEA I would say so. In brazil I would say its more nuanced: $MELI uses its commerce data (often higher-value/essential) to build a comprehensive bank-replacing Principality financial model. $SE/SeaMoney uses its commerce data (often lower-value/discretionary) to build a market-share gaining e-commerce via BNPL. Its possible once $SE gets a banking license that it may be able to do what $MELI is doing in Brazil as well"
X Link 2025-12-10T14:27Z 4171 followers, XXX engagements

"$SE permabullS are bigger $MELI permabears than $SE bulls. If you think $SE is so much better than $MELI you may misunderstand your own thesis for $SE"
X Link 2025-12-10T17:04Z 4171 followers, 4549 engagements

"@juanito_mexok They both will succeed in their dominating regions. Its unfortunate so many $SE bulls cannot understand this"
X Link 2025-12-10T17:24Z 4165 followers, XXX engagements

"Rolled some more $ASML gains into $MELI $SE $UBER and even a $NU starter"
X Link 2025-12-10T17:55Z 4176 followers, 6667 engagements

"I agree that $SE is impressive. The one subtle nuance I believe that most miss on is this is that we are comparing a company that had to build a market from scratch in a fragmented low-trust region $MELI against a company that used high-margin gaming cash (initially) to buy market share aggressively in an already digitized region $SE's Shopee. They are both excellent companies and at these valuations should be considered in your portfolio. I just think its highly dangerous to assume $MELI is a sitting duck and the $SE thesis is not about latam dominance"
X Link 2025-12-10T18:29Z 4171 followers, XXX engagements

"When you do your due diligence. Spend so many hours looking into a company. Knowing when to buy becomes this simple folks. $MELI"
X Link 2025-12-10T22:10Z 4175 followers, 21.7K engagements

"More Hidden Alpha in $NU The NIM Illusion Headline Net Interest Margin (NIM) compressed to 17%. (Wall Street is nervous 🤣) Market Narrative: Competition is eroding pricing power. Reality: A deliberate two-front squeeze. Asset Side: Management is trading Gross Yield for Capital Efficiency. By pivoting to secured lending they accept lower top-line yields to reduce provision volatility and RWA consumption. Liability Side: The Cost of Funding is temporarily elevated as they aggressively pay 14-15% yields in Mexico/Colombia to acquire customers. The Result: They are compressing today's NIM to"
X Link 2025-12-10T23:39Z 4176 followers, 5173 engagements

"@RobertoLemos84 I agree (especially with the and more part) but $SE does have a similar situation going on in SEA"
X Link 2025-12-11T16:01Z 4171 followers, XXX engagements

"In general there are overwhelmingly bullish developments happening for $NU but let's take a peek at a little more bearish take. Again it serves no purpose to be a permabull on any single company and you should always stress test the risks. 👇 My Bear Thesis: The Brazil Playbook assumption is priced in for Mexico but the regulatory structure in Mexico is fundamentally shifting. The consensus bear case for $NU (credit cycle/NPLs) is a distraction. The structural risk is the Interchange Trap in Mexico. 📉 The market prices $NU on the assumption that Mexico will replicate Brazils 30%+ ROE."
X Link 2025-12-12T00:30Z 4179 followers, 10.4K engagements

"$NU's Mexico Bull Case isn't growth it's Yield. 🐂 I talked about the Bear Case that fears regulatory caps on fees. The Bull Case knows fees don't matter as much if everyone revolves. The Hidden Alpha in Mexico: While Brazil is addicted to Parcelado (interest-free installments that drag on ROE) Mexico is a nearly a pure Revolver market. CEO David Vlez dropped this gem in the latest earnings: "Mexico has a XX% higher income per capita. and about XX% are revolvers versus only 10-15% in Brazil." Why this neutralizes the Regulatory Headwinds If Nu captures an XX% revolving portfolio Net Interest"
X Link 2025-12-12T04:00Z 4176 followers, 9558 engagements

"I agree largely but I think TTS spans a direct threat to all of $SE's SEA operations vs $AMZN mainly in Mexico and $SE mainly in Brazil. $MELI remains the clear GMV leader in all of its key regions with its massive physical moat as well. Shopee does have larger gmv but $MELI's remains to grow faster. Not sure what the breakdown is in SEA but in latam XX% of retail is still physical where meli only holds X% market share total. Solid runway. Both will do great. I like hearing everybodys reasoning. I bought more of both recently"
X Link 2025-12-12T07:26Z 4171 followers, XXX engagements

"Attempting to value $NU and the market seems to be implying that Brazil keeps printing cash Mexico doesnt self-destruct and Colombia is essentially non-existent. 🤣 Decent margin of safety I would say"
X Link 2025-12-12T07:47Z 4175 followers, 5012 engagements

"The poll results are in: XX% for $MELI vs. XX% for $SE. The CapexAndChill community may have spoken decisively BUT the comments section actually reveals a much richer debate between two distinct flavors of e-commerce dominance. Here is my breakdown of the bull case for both (based on the debates in the comments) to help create a framework to understand what youre actually buying. X. The North Star: GMV vs. Take Rate (Volume vs. Value) One prominent technical argument in the comments was the GMV discrepancy (credits to @cybr4747) and the data supports this entirely: $SE (Shopee) is the"
X Link 2025-12-12T16:38Z 4176 followers, 7417 engagements

"I agree but just to offer a counterbalance: Despite $SE being younger/earlier both companies grew GMV at the exact same rate in USD terms this quarter (+28% $MELI faced more inflationary headwinds actually so FX-neutral they had more growth). I would also say $MELI has some dormant regions that it operates in such as Colombia Peru Chile that are just not nearly as penetrated as much as SEA is in general. It is the clear winner in these regions so if their ecom penetration accelerates there $MELI is riding some strong tailwinds. Another important aspect to consider is $SE used an asset-light"
X Link 2025-12-12T16:55Z 4171 followers, XXX engagements

"Thinking about the proposed Mexico interchange caps (0.6% credit / XXX% debit). People think this hurts $NU (I mean even I do 🤣) but let's look at the unit economics. Cost to serve per active customer: 🟣 $NU: $XXXX - $XXXX 🏦 Legacy Banks: $XXXX - $XXXX At XXX% caps legacy banks literally cannot afford to serve low-income customers without charging monthly fees. They will bleed money on every transaction. Nu is fine because their cost floor is rock bottom. This isn't just a revenue hit. It may be shaping into a Regulatory Moat. This could force competitors to abandon the mass market leaving"
X Link 2025-12-12T20:52Z 4176 followers, 4296 engagements

"Most focus on the legacy banks but weirdly I don't see a lot of talking about $SE's SeaMoney threat in Brazil. Its real But looking at the unit economics. $NU still likely has the math to handle it. With cost to serve at $XXXX and XXXX% efficiency. Drafting a full breakdown for the substack"
X Link 2025-12-13T16:47Z 4175 followers, 2065 engagements

"$META can do the funniest thing right now and acquire all $snap users for a small price 🤣"
X Link 2025-12-13T21:50Z 4178 followers, 3873 engagements

"@MatiasManuel71 I assume $SE's shopee is the main driver behind the growing other. Either way $MELI clearly unphased $AMZN and $WMT struggling"
X Link 2025-12-15T23:44Z 4165 followers, XXX engagements

"@fintegrate Just recently: $UBER $MELI & $SE. $META was also a very big add of mine recently"
X Link 2025-12-16T00:03Z 4165 followers, 1030 engagements

"@TacticzH @BillAckman @Uber ❤ 🤝"
X Link 2025-12-16T14:00Z 4171 followers, XX engagements

"Again I have some points about the private fleets that most are not considering that I will talk about soon. If and when either robotaxi reaches critical mass why would there not be several other robotaxi companies not far behind them like there already is And Chinese AVs are already beating tsla on cost structure even with lidar"
X Link 2025-12-16T14:46Z 4171 followers, XX engagements

"@Mindset4Money_X @BillAckman @Uber ❤ my greatest twitter achievement of all time 🤣"
X Link 2025-12-16T16:45Z 4175 followers, XXX engagements

"Its fair to say $UBER loses if AV becomes a monopoly but the evidence points to a fragmented market. TSLA has a manufacturing cost advantage in the US but not globally where Chinese OEMs undercut them. Crucially the Uber/NVIDIA partnership (deploying L4 fleets with Stellantis) proves the supply side will remain competitive. If the market stays fragmented Uber wins as the aggregator"
X Link 2025-12-16T20:47Z 4171 followers, XX engagements

"I think $MELI's multiple compression is just a transitionary dislocation. Market hates that they are aggressively building a bank and logistics network simultaneously. My read on the suppression 👇 Hidden margin crush is largely accounting. When you grow a credit book XX% YoY you have to book expected losses upfront while revenue comes later. It looks like margin degradation but it's actually just aggressive book building. CapEx shock is also spiking in fulfillment costs (5-6 new centers) & lower shipping thresholds is strategic. It hurts margins today but protects from competition on both"
X Link 2025-12-16T21:15Z 4179 followers, 14.5K engagements

"$SE has strong Founder Alignment Let's take a look at Forrest Lis control structure: X. The Emperor Share Structure (Class B) Alignment at Sea Limited isn't about a board granting options. It's about absolute control. Fact: Forrest Li holds Class B super-voting shares. He controls XX% of the voting power. Reality: He cannot be fired by activists. He is playing for a multi-decade legacy (the "trillion-dollar" goal) not a 3-year vesting cliff. X. Proven Skin in the Game (The Zero-Salary Check) Talk is cheap. Action is verifiable. Fact: During the tech winter crash (2022/2023) Li and top"
X Link 2025-11-30T22:34Z 4176 followers, 5899 engagements

"The Race to the Bottom Fear for $SE looks dead on arrival. Critics argued their dominance was bought with subsidies and once the cash dried up the moat would evaporate. They were dead wrong. By Q3 2025 $SE hasn't just survived the price wars. They have ended them by building structural advantages that capital alone cannot replicate. Let me breakdown the new Structural Supremacy thesis for $SE THE FINANCIAL PIVOT 📊 The days of profitless growth are far gone. Q3 '25 Revenue: $6.0B (+38.3% YoY) Adj. EBITDA: $874.3M (+67.7% YoY) The divergence here is critical: Margins are expanding faster than"
X Link 2025-12-02T02:45Z 4178 followers, 5952 engagements

"The 2025 LatAm Holiday E-Com Wars: $AMZN vs. $MELI vs. $SE Some of the data is in for Black Friday (Brazil) and El Buen Fin (Mexico). The narrative isn't just growth but a structural war between Logistics Credit and Regulation. Here is the breakdown of the landscape. The Macro Shift The 2025 holiday season defied high interest rates. Brazil: A volume revolution. Revenue +11.2% (R$ 4.76B) on Black Friday but avg ticket DROPPED 12.8%. Why The Pix Effect. Cash is king credit is expensive. Mexico: An Omnichannel expansion. 7/10 shoppers mixed physical/digital. The Challenger: $SE (Shopee) The"
X Link 2025-12-03T17:21Z 4176 followers, 3343 engagements

"The Alpha Many Missed in $MELI's Earnings Everyone read the Q3 print. But one month prior CFO Martin de los Santos shared exceptional insight at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia that explained the mechanics behind the numbers. While the earnings showed the what (margin compression for growth) the fireside chat reveals the how (structural cost advantages). Here is the dissected alpha the market glossed over. 👇 The Zero CAC Credit Card Flywheel The Print: Credit portfolio up XX% YoY. The Hidden Alpha: In Brazil MELI issued 1.3M cards in Q2 alone. The kicker Most came with near-zero Customer"
X Link 2025-12-05T02:43Z 4179 followers, 66K engagements

"$SE's Logistics-Ad Arbitrage Machine 🤖 The headline beat is noise. The real story is a ruthless internal subsidy loop and the looming credit test. Weaponizing Logistics Shopee is intentionally effectively lowering shipping prices to bleed competitors. Gross Orders: +28.4% YoY Value-Added Services (Logistics) Revenue: -XXX% YoY They are eating shipping costs (via SPX) to drive volume (hmm a similar playbook to their LatAm counterpart 🧐). Competitors without owned logistics cannot mathematically match this pricing structure. The Funding Source: Ad-Tech Tax How can they afford shipping"
X Link 2025-12-05T21:04Z 4176 followers, 7521 engagements

"@MattWat16001736 In general $SE is in a good position in brazil and will continue to be profitable. $MELI by far is still the safest in any kind of macro downturn given its utility status and advantageous debt"
X Link 2025-12-05T23:00Z 4177 followers, XXX engagements

"The Death of the $UBER Bear Thesis For years the bear case for $UBER was simple: Robotaxis are coming. They will own the hardware cut out the middleman and Uber goes to zero. That thesis isn't just wrong. Its backward. Here is the data-backed reality of the Hybrid Network.👇 The Capital Fortress 🏰 Bears assumed Uber would be too cash-poor to survive the transition. Reality: Uber is a cash machine. Q3 '25 EBITDA: $2.3B (Record High) Free Cash Flow: $2.2B Cash on Hand: $9.1B They aren't bleeding but they are arming themselves to buy the transition. The Utilization Paradox Why does Waymo need"
X Link 2025-12-05T23:06Z 4176 followers, 8364 engagements

"$CPNG Initial Thoughts: The Missing Piece in My Global E-Com Portfolio 📦 I investigated whether $CPNG deserves a spot alongside $AMZN $MELI and $SE in my portfolio. The verdict Its not just Korean Amazon. Its a distinct Northeast Asian Logistics Specialist offering operational alpha not just growth. 📊 The Data: Revenue: $9.3B (+20% FX-neutral) Growth is accelerating not stalling. Gross Margin: XXXX% Proof that end-to-end logistics (100% owned network) scales efficiently. Core Profit: Product Commerce generated $705M EBITDA (8.8% margin). The core business is a cash machine funding the"
X Link 2025-12-06T02:01Z 4176 followers, 3862 engagements

"@smsutherland 🤣 I do love myself more $meli & $se"
X Link 2025-12-07T00:34Z 4176 followers, XXX engagements

"$NU: The Brazil Discount may be an Arbitrage Opportunity 📉 I just modeled Nu Holdings' intrinsic value. The market is pricing it closer to a legacy bank than the tech compounder it is. Here is my valuation breakdown.👇 📊 The Engine (Q3 '25 Verified Actuals) First the raw power under the hood is undeniable: 🔹 ROE: XX% (Record high vs. 15-20% for legacy banks) 🔹 Efficiency Ratio: XXXX% (Industry-leading cost structure) 🔹 Net Income: $783M (+39% YoY FX-Neutral) 🔹 Total Customers: 127M (106M Active) This isn't a growth at all costs cash burner. It's a profit machine. 🧮 The Model: Inputs I"
X Link 2025-12-07T01:44Z 4176 followers, 22.5K engagements

"Made some posts on $SE recently but admittedly have no in-depth content on here yet. Check out the latest earnings transcript and look through their press release. I think its showing a lot of good developments in SEA. @Brian_Stoffel_ and @GabGrowth also have some great content on $SE"
X Link 2025-12-08T16:37Z 4176 followers, 1606 engagements

"What if Everything Goes Wrong for $SE Most investors obsess over the Bull Case ($200+). But disciplined value investors obsess over the downside. I modeled the Ultra-Conservative Disaster Scenario for Sea Limited. No Margin Expansion. Growth crashes to 15%. Multiples compress. Here is the surprise: You still don't lose money. 👇 📉 The Disaster Inputs Let's strip out all optimism. We assume $SE becomes a boring low-margin utility. Entry: $XXX (Today) Normalized Earnings: $3.68/share (Blended FCF/Net Income) Growth: XX% (Conservatively matching analyst revenue estimates ignoring profit"
X Link 2025-12-08T19:18Z 4176 followers, 13.4K engagements

"If $SE can stay in a dominant position in SEA it should be able to expand margins by scaling its logistics scaling its ad biz scaling Monee in general. Once the credit port stop growing so fast provisioning could slow down quality will likely improve for credit and they can focus on increasing spend per customer rather than just customer acquisition"
X Link 2025-12-09T14:05Z 4178 followers, XXX engagements

"@buccocapital I $se what you are saying and accumulating gradually 😏"
X Link 2025-12-09T16:47Z 4176 followers, 2203 engagements

"This is how I feel about this $UBER drop"
X Link 2025-12-10T18:03Z 4178 followers, 12.5K engagements

"$NFLX at $XX 👀 Market is panicking about the recent XX% drop and $WBD noise. Lets look at the actual math because the market is missing the hidden alpha. Trading at $XX NFLX is 38x P/E. High Yes. But strip out the $619M one-off Brazil tax hit from Q3 and youre paying 35x Normalized Earnings. For a compounder growing revs at XX% that's reasonable. But only if the business stays clean. If regulators block the $83B WBD deal Netflix owes a $5.8B Breakup Fee. That is XX% of their projected 2025 Free Cash Flow. If the deal dies in DC the stock takes a massive cash hit. This is the fear pricing."
X Link 2025-12-10T22:02Z 4178 followers, 3334 engagements

"$MELI could potentially find a fourth growth engine in Colombia in the not so distant future 🤝"
X Link 2025-12-12T21:16Z 4175 followers, 3359 engagements

"$NU is aggressively pivoting to Secured Lending (+133% YoY) over Credit Cards (+29%). The trade-off: You lose the 200%+ APR card yields but you get XX% yields deducted straight from payroll. I think the trade for credit stability is worth it. Plus this is a moat that nimble fintech competitors will struggle to cross"
X Link 2025-12-14T04:35Z 4176 followers, 2319 engagements

"Many focus on the $NU vs $MELI duopoly. This is missing the third player entering the war: $SE. Monee's loan book in Brazil specifically grew 3x YoY this past quarter. Nu sees it. That XXX% spike in Secured Lending Its a defensive pivot. I also talk more about the NuCel move. Full breakdown on the not so cozy duopoly 👇"
X Link 2025-12-14T12:42Z 4179 followers, 2884 engagements

"Looking at the consolidation in LatAm fintech. $MELI and $NU are decoupled from the pack. ( $SE IMO is the hidden dark horse in the race check out my latest deep dive for more info on that: For $MELI the depressed FCF is for intentional moat-building. They are opening new centers fast (the capex is for GROWTH and NOT for maintenance). They're spending to lock in delivery speeds competitors can't match. For $NU it really just comes down to the $XXXX cost-to-serve vs the banks' $10+. Even with higher default rates (6-7% for 90+ days) the margin spread absorbs it. Hard to see how the smaller"
X Link 2025-12-14T19:38Z 4178 followers, 6913 engagements

"The LatAm fintech narrative has shifted from growth to efficiency. $NU isnt just cutting costs. The NuFormer AI model is doing the underwriting work of thousands of analysts. Thats how they sustain XX% ROE (profitable growth) $MELI is playing a different game. XX% NPLs (90+ days) on an $11B portfolio looks scary but I view it as CAC. Theyre eating credit losses to capture the merchant. As long as NIMAL holds XX% the math works out. This strategy is fully focused on long-term value by withholding short-term profit. Also peep the 90+ NPL if you adjust $MELI's 90+ NPL reporting so that it is"
X Link 2025-12-14T21:32Z 4178 followers, 4001 engagements

"Convinced $UBER bears have no idea what $UBER's strategy has been since they are hyper-focused on AV's killing them but I will share some thoughts. The Q3 '25 numbers. gross bookings are up XX% to nearly $50B. That doesn't look like a dying business. In fact they are reaccelerating despite Waymo marketshare being the largest it has ever been in markets where it is not partnered with $UBER. The logic of $UBER being the demand aggregator is very sound: Utilization: Robots are expensive assets. You can't have them sitting idle. This will be tough for bears to understand 🤣 but the demand for"
X Link 2025-12-14T22:26Z 4179 followers, 720.8K engagements

"@BillAckman @Uber Thanks Bill Coming from you that means a lot. Great to have my thesis align with yours on $UBER 🤝"
X Link 2025-12-15T14:24Z 4178 followers, 1748 engagements

"@GoikoInvestment Its a great deal imo. I am liking $MELI and $SE too"
X Link 2025-12-16T21:17Z 4179 followers, XXX engagements

"@lee_leeks @TheShortBear I would be really surprised if wall street continues to worry about capex if they can show the growth sustains. but I don't mind them being sour on it for a while longer. It gets cheaper by the day 🤣"
X Link 2025-12-16T23:27Z 4178 followers, XXX engagements

"Some more $MELI Valuation Analysis: Cheap Compounder or Credit Risk 📉🤔 The Data: Valuation: Price/Adj. Operating Cash Flow has compressed to 43.4x (down from 67.9x in Q2 '25). Keep in mind this is the management's adjusted fcf with the capex added back in. Cash Engine: TTM Adjusted OCF hit a record $2.48B yet the stock is down XX% from highs. The Conflict: Bull Case 🐂: You are paying 43x for a dominator choosing to mask its true cash flow to reinvest billions into a high-yield credit book. If they stopped lending tomorrow FCF would skyrocket. Not to mention they are provisioning at a"
X Link 2025-12-03T19:37Z 4134 followers, 5484 engagements

"$NU: The Efficiency Monopoly While the governance is ironclad (as covered) the real story is a unit economic structure that makes legacy banking obsolete. Here is my operational thesis for Nu Holdings: X. The Structural Cost Moat ($0.90 vs. The World) Most fintechs are just shiny front-ends with the same back-end costs. Nu is different. Fact: Nus Cost to Serve Per Active Customer is stuck at $0.90/month. Legacy incumbents in Brazil are at $5.00$15.00. Signal: This isn't an efficiency edge but a structural arbitrage. Nu can service a low-income client profitably where incumbents lose money."
X Link 2025-12-06T21:18Z 4115 followers, 12.1K engagements

"@ManuInvests @FromValue Not surprised one bit. $MELI is just on another level. I think the beast from the east $se is driving the uptick in grey. I think @PronkDaniel mentioned this in his latest video actually"
X Link 2025-12-16T00:25Z 4148 followers, XXX engagements

"Spot on regarding the valuation mismatch. The margin compression is partially just the upfront cost of buying future revenue . However to fully trust the FCF we need to ensure those loan loss reserves are actually funding new growth cohorts and not just plugging holes in deteriorating vintages. As long as NPLs remain stable that margin compression is actually a competitive moat in disguise 🔥"
X Link 2025-12-17T01:07Z 4146 followers, X engagements