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@Brad_Setser Avatar @Brad_Setser Brad Setser

Brad Setser, a well-known economist and blogger, has been actively discussing global economic issues, particularly China's trade dynamics and the US-China relationship. The recent focus has been on China's massive trade surplus with emerging economies and its implications. Additionally, Setser has highlighted the complexities of Argentina's economic situation, including its struggles with servicing external debt and the role of the US Treasury in stabilizing the peso.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance #5386 countries XXXXX% currencies #2061 stocks XXXX%

Social topic influence china #950, tariffs #533, imf #8, strong 3.51%, investment #2251, to the 3.51%, germany #1249, taiwan #119, what is 2.63%, longterm #357

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @joequant @iwelsh @glennluk @muhammadalinasr @chenweihua @yanlian31677392 @jeffis48 @pietroventani @gdp1985 @tylermacro10 @keithbradsher @rajakorman @sandertordoir @ericfine123 @alea @etraalex @captiouserer @halobrief @gregip @macaesbruno

Top assets mentioned Goldman Sachs (GS)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"Support for a clearly overdue RMB adjustment is rising . Weijian Shan has joined the growing consensus"
X Link 2025-11-28T15:18Z 141.8K followers, 23.1K engagements

"@YanLian31677392 Chinese exports are not XX% of China's manufacturing output. China's exports are XX% of GDP its manufacturing surplus is XX% of GDP -- the math here doesn't pass a basic smell test"
X Link 2025-12-07T22:16Z 141.8K followers, XX engagements

"I would go further -- the exchange rate is an independent policy tool in China (the PBOC guides the currency through the fix the state banks execute) and the IMF could have explicitly called on China to manage its currency so as to generate a real appreciation 5/"
X Link 2025-12-10T14:53Z 141.9K followers, 2509 engagements

"The real current yen carry trade is done by domestic Japanese financial institutions -- who hold foreign assets unhedged for the "carry" against domestic yen liabilities. Lifers are the most obvious also pension funds "
X Link 2025-12-03T15:52Z 141.8K followers, 48.6K engagements

"Two things -- a) The decoupling of Chinese exports and imports (and the decoupling of Chinese imports from reported GDP growth) is the second China shock b) the ECB's balance of payments chart game is currently quite strong"
X Link 2025-12-04T01:06Z 141.8K followers, 26.7K engagements

"@chenweihua And China's trade surplus is a function of its exports are well as of its absence of imports -- and nothing blocks China from letting the CNY appreciate"
X Link 2025-12-07T16:47Z 141.9K followers, XXX engagements

"@captiouserer China hasn't placed a new order for Boeing's since the section XXX tariffs. and imports of all planes are way below their XX to XX average"
X Link 2025-12-07T22:58Z 141.8K followers, XXX engagements

"@joequant the absence of a national social safety net is precisely my point; you disagree with the argument but it is still an argument. you also oppose CNY appreciation. So what are you for other than the status quo"
X Link 2025-12-08T07:58Z 141.9K followers, 4591 engagements

"The overall surplus on a trailing 12m basis continues to inch up towards $XXX trillion with increased exports to SE Asia (heavily parts for reexport) making up for weakness in direct exports to the US 4/"
X Link 2025-12-08T19:20Z 141.9K followers, 2278 engagements

"Real net exports (goods and services) have knocked X pp off German growth since the end of 2023 . France isn't doing great here either but it is in a bit better shape than Germany 1/"
X Link 2025-11-25T12:29Z 141.9K followers, 13.3K engagements

"It isn't apples to apples but $XX billion is Taiwan's quarterly current account surplus . ($40b over 8ys is a little over $1b a quarter by comparison) Just sayin'"
X Link 2025-11-30T18:33Z 141.9K followers, 16K engagements

"Striking chart from the FT's Martin Wolf. If correct hedge fund holdings of US Treasuries are approaching the holdings of reserve managers in size and growing much more quickly 1/2"
X Link 2025-12-02T18:40Z 141.9K followers, 76.8K engagements

"@halobrief hedgies tho have derivative hedges so a tad less risky than the raw leverage numbers suggest"
X Link 2025-12-02T21:17Z 141.9K followers, 1753 engagements

"Hope the US Treasury is watching and that it still cares about currency manipulation "
X Link 2025-12-05T00:30Z 141.9K followers, 26.9K engagements

"And for the sake of completeness the dynamics around China's currency tend to be predictable. Appreciation creates expectations of further appreciation and exporters convert fx into CNY. That generates further appreciation pressure -- which the PBOC or the SCBs blunt"
X Link 2025-12-05T00:32Z 141.9K followers, 6523 engagements

"a) the "supposed" import-export gap that gap is in all of the Chinese data (export and import volumes customs goods etc). what is supposed about it do tell b) what critique have I not addressed do tell c) I actually put more emphasis on the exchange rate and demand side (notably the collapse in property investment) than on supply side subsidies. if you want to criticize me do start with getting my argument right d) I generally argue not from what is good for China but from the point of view of what is good for China's trading partners (the US Germany -- see my paper with Tordoir). I do get"
X Link 2025-12-05T22:18Z 141.9K followers, XXX engagements

"@chenweihua Do tell me the restrictions that limit China's purchases of European cars American construction equipment American and European planes and for that matter almost all but the most advanced chips. Auto chips are available w/o limit yet China still is trying to engineer them out"
X Link 2025-12-07T16:46Z 141.9K followers, 2709 engagements

"@YanLian31677392 need to calculate net exports of manufactures v total manufacturing value added in the economy. don't think the comparison above works. and in any case the global issue comes from China's outsized surplus in manufacturing"
X Link 2025-12-07T21:28Z 141.9K followers, XX engagements

"Didn't realize the US Treasury was in need of Argentine peso funding . live and learn (Bessent is drawing a ridiculous distinction between a swap and a bailout; what is true is that one man's rescue loan is another man's bailout -- the structure tho doesn't matter)"
X Link 2025-11-11T20:28Z 141.9K followers, 57.8K engagements

"Important piece in the Wall Street Journal from Greg Ip building on research from Goldman and others A China that grows through exports (and that doesn't import) is a drag on most of the rest of the world economy "
X Link 2025-12-06T16:02Z 141.9K followers, 123.1K engagements

"It is sort of stunning that with material conditions driving a wedge between China and other manufacturing powers the Trump Administration couldn't build a trade coalition v China. In fact it didn't even seem to try. 9/9"
X Link 2025-12-08T19:32Z 141.9K followers, 4960 engagements

"Brutal -- but accurate -- assessment of the results of Trump's year one policies by @wsj_douglasj and @JonathanEmont of the WSJ 1/"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:20Z 141.9K followers, 107.8K engagements

"The Setser rule -- Chinese export volumes outperform global trade absent a real appreciation -- has held (and the IMF's forecasts which disregarded standard RER rules of thumb have been wildly off) 7/"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:34Z 141.9K followers, 6170 engagements

"And the FT's Big Read should raise questions at the IMF about whether or not Germany is really still a big contributor to global imbalances (exports are falling and domestic spending is set to increase) let alone a bigger contributor than China 18/"
X Link 2025-11-12T15:15Z 141.9K followers, 8886 engagements

"And it also should raise questions about the IMF's advice to China over the last X or X years which more or less was to export your way out of the property crash more aggressively (monetary easing & long-term fiscal consolidation = weaker CNY). More later 19/19"
X Link 2025-11-12T15:18Z 141.9K followers, 7584 engagements

"And the IMF needs to clearly decide that China's problem is broader than internal deflation and too big an augmented fiscal deficit -- and stop recommending policies (in the staff report more than in the WEO) that would make China's imbalance BIGGER 6/"
X Link 2025-11-12T20:46Z 141.9K followers, 6494 engagements

"Fiscal consolidation (even if lagged) and monetary easing (read a weaker currency) is the right policy for a country running a current account deficit -- it isn't the right policy recommendation for the world's biggest surplus country 7/7"
X Link 2025-11-12T20:47Z 141.9K followers, 5949 engagements

"Institutionally difficult now but I fail to see why Japan could not return the GPIF (the government pension fund) to its 2012 asset allocation and pocket massive profits by selling foreign assets for yen and then buying long dated JGBs . 1/2"
X Link 2025-11-21T01:33Z 141.9K followers, 76.8K engagements

"Powerful article from @greg_ip "China is now the worlds . largest exporter but . It has never believed in balanced trade nor comparative advantage. Even as it imported critical technology from the West its long-term goal was always self-sufficiency Nice chart too 1/"
X Link 2025-12-06T01:16Z 141.9K followers, 133.7K engagements

"These are absolutely gigantic numbers The surplus with the EU for example continues to rise the 2022 pandemic surplus wasnt in turns out quite so transitory there is a reason why European leaders are starting to warn that the status quo is untenable. 5/"
X Link 2025-12-08T19:25Z 141.9K followers, 3212 engagements

"Amazing pair of stats from Jens Eskelund of the European Chamber in China -- who comes from the shipping industry and knows this data cold 1/"
X Link 2025-12-08T20:45Z 141.9K followers, 14.8K engagements

"I tend to track the trailing 12m sum when looking at China's trade so China's $X trillion surplus was old news to me . but it clearly caught the eye of headline writers 2/2"
X Link 2025-12-08T20:47Z 141.9K followers, 6239 engagements

"Exports are a big enough share of China's economy ( 20%) that two years of XX% or more export volume growth can drive an overall increase in manufacturing output even if the domestic economy is the in doldrums 3/"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:25Z 141.9K followers, 7265 engagements

"Trump isn't responsible for China's pivot back to export led growth. But there was a trend break in China's surplus that corresponds with his tariffs (term 1). it is fair to say that a tariffs only approach hasn't worked. I give Trump and Lighthizer credit for a tough line on China in term X -- tho they failed to realize the limits of bilateral tariffs. I think Trump has now lost the plot TBH"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:41Z 141.9K followers, XX engagements

"@MacaesBruno US exports aren't exactly doing much Chinese exports are in fact eroding Europe's global market share"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:49Z 141.9K followers, XXX engagements

"@MacaesBruno China's export volume gains globally have clearly been at Europe's expense -- see this chart based on the Dutch data worth updating a few priors here"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:52Z 141.9K followers, XXX engagements

"@BobP1A1 not really -- US runs a surplus ex oil"
X Link 2025-12-09T18:09Z 141.9K followers, XXX engagements

"Hallelujah. The IMF has recognized that China's weak real exchange rate is a problem and that it has contributed to China's export surplus and growing trade tensions. From @KeithBradsher in the NYT 1/"
X Link 2025-12-10T14:44Z 141.9K followers, 38K engagements

"The IMF's formal press statement attributes the Yuan's real depreciation to inflation differentials (nominal moves v the USD also played a role in 22/23) 3/"
X Link 2025-12-10T14:49Z 141.9K followers, 5098 engagements

"The Fund's actual policy advice is a mixed bad. I applaud the clear call for additional fiscal support for demand (an important shift from the Fund's disastrous 2024 advice). But cutting back "inefficient" investment is an offsetting negative shock to the domestic economy 6/"
X Link 2025-12-10T14:55Z 141.9K followers, 2017 engagements

"So I worry that asserting that the IMF's preferred domestic policy mix which includes some (welcome) but demand negative policies on investment + monetary easing "will" lead to the Fund's preferred external outcome (RER appreciation) is a technocratic sleight of hand 7/"
X Link 2025-12-10T14:57Z 141.9K followers, 1738 engagements

"@briangobosox @Richard_Casey they will hit a budget constraint with subsidies equal to XX% of exports (4 pp of GDP). Real depreciation juiced Chinese exports real appreciation will slow them -- standard empirical estimate is every XX pp on the RER = - / + XXX pp of GDP on the trade balance"
X Link 2025-12-10T19:35Z 141.9K followers, XXX engagements

"Someone should do an urgent review of all the categories of goods where China's share of global production exceeds its general share of global manufacturing (around 1/3) for weaponization risks (h/t @halobrief for the chart) 1/2"
X Link 2025-12-10T20:48Z 141.9K followers, 20.3K engagements

"@MuhammadAliNasr @KeithBradsher different size of tradable sector should result in some variation . and sometimes a single variable is quite important. most trade models work well with four variables - domestic demand foreign demand the RER and oil"
X Link 2025-12-10T21:15Z 141.9K followers, XX engagements

"@joequant so long as the CNY is linked to the dollar a weaker dollar producers a weaker CNY as well"
X Link 2025-12-11T17:29Z 141.9K followers, XXX engagements

"@Ov__De I assume someone somewhere put on an options trade that pays off if the CNY breaks out of its current crawl "
X Link 2025-12-11T18:40Z 141.9K followers, XX engagements

"Momentum for a "real" appreciation in the Chinese yuan is building"
X Link 2025-12-03T01:29Z 141.9K followers, 50.4K engagements

"Not going to disagree . 15-20% real depreciation of the yuan since XX has had predictable effects; Chinese exports wildly outperforming global trade in volume terms"
X Link 2025-12-08T19:03Z 141.9K followers, 53.1K engagements

"Chinas November trade data was strong with an expected bounce back from October I get a XX% increase in export volumes in November & a X% increase in import volumes. The trailing 12m sum for the nominal surplus inched up to $1180b as well 1/"
X Link 2025-12-08T19:14Z 141.9K followers, 17.2K engagements

"Taiwan's customs surplus is rocketing up -- the trailing 12m sum looks a bit like China's surplus in autos . The November surplus was $11b and that total would be higher but for unusually strong imports. November of last year was $5b. 1/3"
X Link 2025-12-09T14:46Z 141.9K followers, 11.6K engagements

""Strip out imports of energy food and raw materials and China is on track this year to post a surplus in manufactured goods of around $X trillion a huge sum that is on a par with the annual national income of Russia or Italy" 2/"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:23Z 141.9K followers, 11.6K engagements

"There are a few reasons why the tariffs haven't dented China's exports/ manufacturing based economy the first is that China's exports to Europe have boomed even as European made goods get squeezed out of China's own market 4/"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:28Z 141.9K followers, 7074 engagements

"The second is that US importers and Chinese exporters have gotten around US bilateral tariffs by doing final assembly in SE Asia and Taiwan. What is sent to Saigon doesn't stay in Saigon 5/"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:30Z 141.9K followers, 6963 engagements

"The third is that China's real exchange rate depreciation (15-20% over the last few years) has had the expected impact on Chinese exports (standard coefficients imply a XXX to X pp increase in net exports . which materialized) 6/"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:32Z 141.9K followers, 5622 engagements

"French President Emmanuel Macron is right to highlight that the burden China's export surplus places on the rest of the global economy is quickly becoming unbearable -- 8/"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:36Z 141.9K followers, 10.1K engagements

"A common -- but fundamental -- misunderstanding of current trade flows. Chinese exports are still coming to the US. They just are taking an extra stop along the way. Components go to SE Asia Taiwan and Mexico for final assembly for the US market"
X Link 2025-12-10T14:03Z 141.9K followers, 29.4K engagements

"The consensus around the undervaluation of the yuan grows -- China needs though to show willingness to allow a more meaningful appreciation than allowed by the current slow crawl in the fix which barely offsets inflation differentials"
X Link 2025-12-10T14:38Z 141.9K followers, 16K engagements

"This is the most important part of the IMF's press release -- it argues that its policy recommendations (even with the call for more monetary easing) "will" lead to real appreciation . 4/"
X Link 2025-12-10T14:51Z 141.9K followers, 2344 engagements

"In other words unless China changes how it manages its currency in radical way China's government has to actively choose to allow the yuan to appreciate -- the market is effectively a bet on where exporters and others expect the PBOC to take the yuan 10/"
X Link 2025-12-10T15:01Z 141.9K followers, 2477 engagements

"And right now the settlement data shows that the state banks have been actively buying FX to keep the onshore CNY from trading in the strong side of the band so there is space for the authorities to allow the yuan to move 11/"
X Link 2025-12-10T15:02Z 141.9K followers, 2602 engagements

"And of course I wouldn't have uncritically accepted the Chinese data showing a current account surplus of a bit north of X% (way up from X% at the middle of last year -- an absurdly low number -- but well below what the surplus should be based on customs) 12/"
X Link 2025-12-10T15:06Z 141.9K followers, 5390 engagements

"@EuroBriefing not at all clear Germany would lose -- it isn't as if German exports to China are currently doing well. German firms fear retaliation against their in China operations but their interests aren't the same as German interests . but parts of Germany still haven't adjusted"
X Link 2025-12-10T16:34Z 141.9K followers, 11.8K engagements

"@MuhammadAliNasr @KeithBradsher Need to convince me why the results of this comprehensive IMF assessment do not still hold"
X Link 2025-12-10T21:00Z 141.9K followers, XXX engagements

"One slow burning but important dynamic -- The bonds that are amortizing have very low coupons. Refinancing them with 9-10% coupons thus eventually will add to Argentina's income deficit and expand the current account without trade adjustment 1/2"
X Link 2025-12-11T19:20Z 141.9K followers, 5671 engagements