@BellikOzan Avatar @BellikOzan Ozan Bellik

Ozan Bellik posts on X about spacex, in the, sats, math the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence technology brands 10.66% finance 7.38% countries 4.92% stocks 3.28% social networks 1.64% travel destinations 1.64% automotive brands 0.82% celebrities 0.82% fashion brands 0.82%

Social topic influence spacex #46, in the 5.74%, sats 4.1%, math 3.28%, just a 3.28%, the first 3.28%, fine 3.28%, constellation 2.46%, at least 2.46%, the most 2.46%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @robotbeat @dlanebreckenri1 @exogynous @mbb_theb @fakecarlsagan @fullofstarships @orbitalperigee @gayettix @heskelbalas @theprimaldino @amazonleo @hipernovastar @grok @launchallvipers @noname117s @viciykevin @andrewparsonson @mnmcsofgp @apollofalc9 @catalinafrog

Top assets mentioned Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@AndrewParsonson Do you understand what the word rate means"
X Link 2026-02-14T23:11Z [----] followers, 13.8K engagements

"People thought Dearmoon was a SpaceX scam. It was a Maezawa scam. People are only now finding out that Maezawa was an asshole with no empathy Tim gives the example of the Polaroid team that was working on a special camera but that's not the only story. I don't know how much is public so I won't be detailed but he never reimbursed any of People are only now finding out that Maezawa was an asshole with no empathy Tim gives the example of the Polaroid team that was working on a special camera but that's not the only story. I don't know how much is public so I won't be detailed but he never"
X Link 2026-02-16T00:15Z [----] followers, 13.5K engagements

"All the people in the replies mocking the "copying" of SpaceX don't seem to realize that copying SpaceX means being ahead of every other company in the West. 🚀China's first REUSABLE rocket Zhuque-3 has completed engine tests and begun final preparations before its maiden flight. 🛰🌏The rocket will be used to accelerate the building of China's "Starlink" large-scale constellation missions at a lower cost. https://t.co/tEfQbdudSp 🚀China's first REUSABLE rocket Zhuque-3 has completed engine tests and begun final preparations before its maiden flight. 🛰🌏The rocket will be used to accelerate"
X Link 2025-10-22T20:24Z [----] followers, 186.3K engagements

"More people are getting to hear about Artemis and probably wondering about the weird hardware choices. Thought I'd take a crack at summarizing how we got here for a broader audience: In the early 2000s Bush II and his people wanted to one-up the Apollo landings -- [--] people on the surface at a time instead of [--] longer stays safer and in more comfort. And they wanted to do it with the who's who of aerospace using the Space Shuttle contractors and NASA centers to build a new capsule and rockets. But NASA was going to need a big budget increase it was going to take a long time and the benefits"
X Link 2025-11-17T06:02Z [----] followers, 35.6K engagements

"That's a pressure-fed vernier thruster. Basically just an MCC and nozzle. Powerhead not included. But yes ofc he's right about there being more to design than clean lines. Raptor [--] may have clean simple lines but look the LR-101 was this clean and simple in the 50's. Maybe there's more to design than clean lines. https://t.co/vLN1U0j1ag Raptor [--] may have clean simple lines but look the LR-101 was this clean and simple in the 50's. Maybe there's more to design than clean lines. https://t.co/vLN1U0j1ag"
X Link 2026-01-27T15:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Imagine if there was a small set of companies you were sure was going to be at least half the global (or interplanetary) economy in [--] years. At what valuation for the set would you go from buy to hold and at what valuation from hold to sell"
X Link 2026-01-28T21:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"When I started teaching my kids physics I kept having the thought "it'd be really helpful if they knew calculus". Then I thought "why would you teach calculus separately from physics" So now that our [--] year old is ready for calculus I'm teaching him calculus & physics together. (Here's some calculus and here's how you use it to solve this physics problem.) It's going swimmingly. An hour a week goes a long way when you have a solid foundation and one on one instruction"
X Link 2026-01-29T14:46Z [----] followers, 472.4K engagements

"Assuming an average of [---] sats per Starship launch (meant to be a mix of sat types) and 5yr lifespan this can be launched and maintained at [---] launches/day. Ofc at this scale it makes sense to a) Use core infra longer than [--] years and just upgrade compute. b) Use space-based mineral resources. c) Keep scaling your satellites to sizes way bigger than what can be carried in one Starship launch. Pretty sure Elon has gigatons of hardware in mind. One million satellites (And this is still just the beginning) https://t.co/CbJqo1Qfa4 One million satellites (And this is still just the beginning)"
X Link 2026-01-31T06:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Age appropriate parenting https://t.co/SGU8zYSG40 https://t.co/SGU8zYSG40"
X Link 2026-01-31T07:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Yes the early sats will be much smaller and yes it'll take a really long time for them to get this big but it will also take them a really long time to get to a million (not sure which will happen first). (And yes a million sats that big a) may never happen and b) probably won't be predominantly Earth-launched) Assuming an average of [---] sats per Starship launch (meant to be a mix of sat types) and 5yr lifespan this can be launched and maintained at [---] launches/day. Ofc at this scale it makes sense to a) Use core infra longer than [--] years and just upgrade compute. b) Use space-based Assuming"
X Link 2026-01-31T17:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"It's always "what a stupid decision" right up until it becomes the obvious right decision. Permission to speak freely; this whole AI pivot with SpaceX is incredibly stupid and while it may not bankrupt them its going to definitely eat resources that are better used elsewhere. Starship doesnt even work and youre focused on the latest Twitter grifter fad Lame. Permission to speak freely; this whole AI pivot with SpaceX is incredibly stupid and while it may not bankrupt them its going to definitely eat resources that are better used elsewhere. Starship doesnt even work and youre focused on the"
X Link 2026-02-01T06:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"IPO first. Then have SpaceX buy out Tesla in all stock deal with non-voting shares. I believe the next logical step is for Tesla and SpaceX to merge Subject to board shareholder and regulatory approvals. Back-of-the-napkin math: Tesla: $1.75T SpaceX: $1.25T Combined valuation: $3T Both Tesla and SpaceX shareholders receive shares in a new parent company I believe the next logical step is for Tesla and SpaceX to merge Subject to board shareholder and regulatory approvals. Back-of-the-napkin math: Tesla: $1.75T SpaceX: $1.25T Combined valuation: $3T Both Tesla and SpaceX shareholders receive"
X Link 2026-02-02T23:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I really liked the Mars vision but this much bigger one is the one I've been waiting for (well K2 and beyond.) And the Mars vision hasn't gone away --it has just taken its place inside a bigger picture. K2 or youre not even trying K2 or youre not even trying"
X Link 2026-02-03T06:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I'm sure 2-3 years is green lights to Malibu timing. But 100kW/t is very achievable. Not easy. But very achievable. Power & cooling are the two things you need put effort into shaving mass on btw. Everything else is easy to make light by comparison. Zephyr is a national treasure. I think Elon is getting too sloppy with his Elon timelines. 2-3 years to space compute being the most economical choice [---] kW/ton compute sats all included Really But it'd be interesting to press him to commit to a specific design&BOM. https://t.co/wX9M7w6IFi Zephyr is a national treasure. I think Elon is getting"
X Link 2026-02-03T07:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Great choice. And just the beginning TBC and @rta_dubai have signed a contract to construct Dubai Loop. TBC would like to thank The Crown Prince of Dubai @HamdanMohammed and His Excellency Mattar Al Tayer and his team. The pilot system with [---] km of tunnel and [--] stations will begin construction in late [----]. https://t.co/Ot7DKWyy4B TBC and @rta_dubai have signed a contract to construct Dubai Loop. TBC would like to thank The Crown Prince of Dubai @HamdanMohammed and His Excellency Mattar Al Tayer and his team. The pilot system with [---] km of tunnel and [--] stations will begin construction in"
X Link 2026-02-04T00:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Yep. Around 500x the ISS (even with the roll-out array upgrades that SpaceX delivered to the ISS). @ContrarianCurse You are taking crazy pills. Theres already more than 100MW of Starlink in orbit. @ContrarianCurse You are taking crazy pills. Theres already more than 100MW of Starlink in orbit"
X Link 2026-02-04T16:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"You don't have to use itar-compliant shops if you're not sending them IP. Btw Raytheon and LockMart's supply chains are neck deep in China. they get to use cheap chinese parts while the rest of us have to suffer through getting ripped off by itar-complaint shops but they still get to be a defense contractor what a sick joke https://t.co/3OQPWIT59w they get to use cheap chinese parts while the rest of us have to suffer through getting ripped off by itar-complaint shops but they still get to be a defense contractor what a sick joke https://t.co/3OQPWIT59w"
X Link 2026-02-04T17:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"That's what I recall as well. Two crew pads is nice to have but afaik SpaceX is under no obligation to provide that. If you want it pay for it. @ScottLikedSLS Wasn't the redundancy just in case Starship had issues at 39A @ScottLikedSLS Wasn't the redundancy just in case Starship had issues at 39A"
X Link 2026-02-04T19:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"15 years ago the United States had an operational spacecraft that had more pressurized volume than the Apollo command module could dock with other spacecraft and could return to Earth with a primary heat shield that happened to be lunar capable. The manufacturer had even offered to modify it for carrying crew. And it was light enough that even modified for crewed lunar work it could have been flown on a commercial rocket with a service module big enough to get it in and out of lunar orbit. Instead of following that tech tree to its logical conclusion we poured $30 billion into a paper"
X Link 2026-02-04T21:25Z [----] followers, 80.5K engagements

"COTS D Dragon [--] could have been ready years before Dragon [--] (no propulsive landing no high pressure valves and explode-y spacecraft light enough to not need parachute rework). It could have been designed for lunar ops from the get-go. And Falcon Heavy could have been ready years earlier as well if it had been prioritized. We could have done Artemis II not just a few years earlier but a decade ago. For a small fraction of what we had already spent on SLS and Orion at that point. With plenty leftover to design and build a lunar lander. And since FH+Dragon 1+service module could have done LLO"
X Link 2026-02-04T21:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I reclaimed my points in advance: Second I wasn't talking about Crew Dragon (see above). Third I'm well aware of the systems that would need to be redone for Crew Dragon to be lunar capable and it's a far less complicated set of changes than detractors of the idea tend to think. Happy to go into the weeds with you. https://ozanbellik.blogspot.com/2022/03/gray-dragon-on-falcon-heavy.htmlm=1 https://x.com/BellikOzan/status/2019161635269877780s=20 Before @Robotbeat gets on my case for vagueposting the spacecraft in question was Dragon [--] the offer to make it crew-capable was for COTS D the"
X Link 2026-02-05T01:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Well I guess I should have been more explicit. At least three commenters thought I was talking about the Shuttle. I was talking about Dragon [--] and the possibility of going forward with COTS D with further req modifications for lunar use. Also correction: Dragon [--] could berth but not dock and that capability wasn't demo'ed until less than [--] years ago. [--] years ago the United States had an operational spacecraft that had more pressurized volume than the Apollo command module could dock with other spacecraft and could return to Earth with a primary heat shield that happened to be lunar capable."
X Link 2026-02-05T01:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@RadioactivGoose @Scribbles646 It has a toilet and enough room for a week of supplies including air water and fuel"
X Link 2026-02-05T03:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"It's easy math. with wrong assumptions. $1200/lb is the lowest cost to put anything in orbit. A GB200/300 NVL72 rack weighs [----] pounds. It will cost $3.6M to put [--] GPUs in orbit. It will cost $5B to put 100K GPUs in orbit. That does not include any supporting infrastructure. This is not hard math. $1200/lb is the lowest cost to put anything in orbit. A GB200/300 NVL72 rack weighs [----] pounds. It will cost $3.6M to put [--] GPUs in orbit. It will cost $5B to put 100K GPUs in orbit. That does not include any supporting infrastructure. This is not hard math"
X Link 2026-02-06T05:21Z [----] followers, 11.4K engagements

"I'm all for a race Im hearing that internally Blue Origin is moving aggressively toward an interim Artemis landing solution that does not require refueling (Blue Moon Mk-1.5). Im hearing that internally Blue Origin is moving aggressively toward an interim Artemis landing solution that does not require refueling (Blue Moon Mk-1.5)"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Consistent so far 2020: 5-6 maybe as few as [--] -- 2021: max of [--] min of [--] -- 2026: [--] or [--] https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1425473261551423489 https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1311907493182926849s=20 @aakashgupta Starship V4 Tanker version will deliver [---] tons of propellant per flight so more like [--] or [--] tanker flights to refill the lunar transit Starship in orbit. Shouldnt be too much of a problem if were doing 10k flights/year. https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1425473261551423489 https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1311907493182926849s=20 @aakashgupta Starship V4 Tanker version will deliver [---] tons of"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Let's try that again. Starship milestones I'm hoping to see in 2025: [--]. V2 flight [--]. Orbital flight [--]. Ship catch [--]. Second pad [--]. Ship to ship prop transfer [--]. Raptor [--] flight [--]. Starlink deployment [--]. Booster reuse [--]. Double digit launches in one year I'd be happy with [--] out of [--]. Starship milestones I'm hoping to see in 2025: [--]. V2 flight [--]. Orbital flight [--]. Ship catch [--]. Second pad [--]. Ship to ship prop transfer [--]. Raptor [--] flight [--]. Starlink deployment [--]. Booster reuse [--]. Double digit launches in one year I'd be happy with [--] out of 9"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I've expected for a long time the first uncrewed attempt was no earlier than 2028-29 window and it would be very unlikely to send humans in the next window. I was hoping humans in the mid 30s on the basis of continued Mars focus. This likely pushes that back (at least from the US.). Tbd how much. For those unaware SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon as we can potentially achieve that in less than [--] years whereas Mars would take 20+ years. The mission of SpaceX remains the same: extend consciousness and life as we know it to For those unaware SpaceX"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"So far only pushed back one window but [----] is green lights to Malibu. @peterrhague @r3a9an_k_ Maybe [----] @peterrhague @r3a9an_k_ Maybe 2031"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Hexhawk_2 Having done the math it's entirely possible even without the upsizing they have planned and plausible with"
X Link 2026-02-09T22:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"An oldie but a goodie"
X Link 2026-02-09T23:48Z [----] followers, 14.6K engagements

"@Robotbeat Yeah and maybe that'll happen but surface is another matter and there is a big difference between Mars ASAP and Mars when we get to it"
X Link 2026-02-10T01:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Robotbeat (probably not a big difference in the long run but likely a big difference in first crewed landing)"
X Link 2026-02-10T01:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"One of a number of Martian advantages The lack of atmosphere on the moon is way more of negative than a feature BTW. The lack of atmosphere on the moon is way more of negative than a feature BTW"
X Link 2026-02-10T01:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Note that he said "something" not crew @canraptor_ They might land something on the Moon before SpaceX and thats fine by me. I will be one of the first to congratulate them. However what really matters for the future is being able to land millions of tons of equipment and people to build a self-growing city on the Moon. In @canraptor_ They might land something on the Moon before SpaceX and thats fine by me. I will be one of the first to congratulate them. However what really matters for the future is being able to land millions of tons of equipment and people to build a self-growing city on"
X Link 2026-02-10T02:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Mostly b/c of a) mass gain and b) absence of planned optimizations that didn't make it to early versions. The latter are being addressed with inclusion in future iterations while the former seem to be getting compensated by upsizing (including higher thrust). The design goals haven't substantially changed"
X Link 2026-02-10T04:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

""It's not a super heavy launch system capable of manned flights to the Moon." That's exactly what it is. It's perfectly sized to do with a lunar Dragon variant what Block [--] SLS does with Orion which is unnecessarily porky. And it's pretty weird to call it an F9 on steroids and say in the same paragraph that it's never been loaded 10t when F9 has been loaded with 17.5t. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021081014626549903 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021081014626549903"
X Link 2026-02-10T04:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"By that measure there was no such thing as SLS in [----]. or [----]. Obviously it's for LEO. And obviously it demonstrates upper stage loading (for those who can't do the napkin math that shows it would be fine). The current FH payload adapter doesn't need to. Yeah no one paid them to do it. Handwringers always go about saying "this hasn't been demonstrated and it would be way too hard" then rarely bother to question their assumptions when some of those things are done on the side on a one-off contract (e.g. the service port and methalox for Nova-C. A stronger PAF would be way easier."
X Link 2026-02-10T06:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@100MBTC TMI + Mars landing only needs about 3x terminal mass in prop. So 800t prop load would mean in the neighborhood of 270t dry + payload + residuals -- very reasonable"
X Link 2026-02-10T06:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@MatthewW_eacc Oh I expected and didn't think anything of them missing the '26 window. It's the commitment to Mars ASAP that was important"
X Link 2026-02-10T20:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"HLS is the silver lining of Artemis This.the HLS portion of Artemis is getting a lot of crap right now but I think both providers will pull it off and the commercial HLS decision will be regarded as a masterstroke that gives NASA the entire solar system. This.the HLS portion of Artemis is getting a lot of crap right now but I think both providers will pull it off and the commercial HLS decision will be regarded as a masterstroke that gives NASA the entire solar system"
X Link 2026-02-11T01:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Absolutely amazing to me that they haven't already implemented a conservative hardware fix for doghouse overheating. "Engineers are developing a model to predict thruster behavior in the doghouses." The thrusters were in the svc module that was discarded & disintegrated during entry through 🌎 's atmosphere. That was back in Sep [--] [----]. [--] months later the model isn't fully developed yet "Engineers are developing a model to predict thruster behavior in the doghouses." The thrusters were in the svc module that was discarded & disintegrated during entry through 🌎 's atmosphere. That was back"
X Link 2026-02-11T03:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"At this point Starliner's first operational crewed flight is a minimum of [--] years after Dragon's. Likely more"
X Link 2026-02-11T04:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"For those who don't know the Chinese rocket (CZ-10) that's going to be launching their Orion-equivalent is basically like a slightly bigger Falcon Heavy with a hydrolox third stage (Bridenstack)"
X Link 2026-02-11T04:35Z [----] followers, 10.6K engagements

"@GravityPimp K2 civilization growing in the direction of K3. At that point I expect most people to be living in space"
X Link 2026-02-11T23:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@jabe8 @heskelbalas @JeffGreason But it's been done on the ground. People get used to the spin"
X Link 2026-02-11T23:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Sure it's really not a big deal to be blowing up engines. Also you can't shortcut this part of the process by just aiming to get it right in design. (ahem.) "Eric you are trying to make a story out of nothing." https://t.co/tnEyvC8gGD "Eric you are trying to make a story out of nothing." https://t.co/tnEyvC8gGD"
X Link 2026-02-12T00:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The ISS is a lot closer to Skylab than Starship HLS is to the Apollo LM. @ThePrimalDino believing an HLS landing is comparable to an Apollo landing is pretty equivalent to the belief that the ISS is comparable to Skylab @ThePrimalDino believing an HLS landing is comparable to an Apollo landing is pretty equivalent to the belief that the ISS is comparable to Skylab"
X Link 2026-02-12T00:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"100x the pressurized volume. @BellikOzan When you realize that SS could take [--] fueled Apollo LM stacks down to the surface the scale comes into focus. @BellikOzan When you realize that SS could take [--] fueled Apollo LM stacks down to the surface the scale comes into focus"
X Link 2026-02-12T01:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I really didn't expect Spinlaunch to become relevant this fast but here we are. It kills me to say it but spinlaunch actually has a future if were doing full send lunar infra push. Centrifuge launch with tether paid out from a launch tower is a wayyyy better plan if you arent down in an atmosphere and only need 2-3 km/s https://t.co/yDijH4Inrh It kills me to say it but spinlaunch actually has a future if were doing full send lunar infra push. Centrifuge launch with tether paid out from a launch tower is a wayyyy better plan if you arent down in an atmosphere and only need 2-3 km/s"
X Link 2026-02-12T01:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@ThePrimalDino @booster_10 The missions were failures but the vehicles were recovered as intended. Vs. test flights where recovery wasn't even attempted. In any case I'll take the program that's actually moving forward"
X Link 2026-02-12T05:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@BanhmiBrieoche Supporting evidence: https://x.com/Orbital_Perigee/status/2021440738601599117s=20 SLS is really Americas only politically viable option. this is a failing of America not the rocket https://x.com/Orbital_Perigee/status/2021440738601599117s=20 SLS is really Americas only politically viable option. this is a failing of America not the rocket"
X Link 2026-02-12T06:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Looking forward to seeing the distribution of launch contracts for this The @FCC has approved Amazon's second-generation Leo system adding coverage + capacity to serve more customers around the world. Key features: ➡ Expands constellation to 7000+ satellites ➡ Adds support for V-band Ku-band frequencies ➡ Adds polar coverage extending Leo https://t.co/BVXVLbozJv The @FCC has approved Amazon's second-generation Leo system adding coverage + capacity to serve more customers around the world. Key features: ➡ Expands constellation to 7000+ satellites ➡ Adds support for V-band Ku-band frequencies ➡"
X Link 2026-02-12T06:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Beautiful. And then they disappear as the terminator goes well beloved the horizon and don't obstruct the night sky for most of the night. They return near dawn. If the satellites were visible from the ground this is what sunset looks like with [------] satellites in a SSO halo https://t.co/dQ2Ui4j3n3 If the satellites were visible from the ground this is what sunset looks like with [------] satellites in a SSO halo https://t.co/dQ2Ui4j3n3"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"This was never going to happen. Now that they lost another nozzle I think they'll be lucky to get more than [--] launches with Vulcan in [----]. I bet @Amazonleo (aka Kuiper) is scrambling too (more than they already were). They're going to need a lot more than [--] F9s to get [---] sats up by July. (Or they'll ask for another extension). ULA has [--] to [--] launches in queue for [----] ULA COO Mark Peller tells reporters. Breakdown is [--] to [--] Atlas and [--] to [--] Vulcan missions. ULA has [--] to [--] launches in queue for [----] ULA COO Mark Peller tells reporters. Breakdown is [--] to [--] Atlas and [--] to [--] Vulcan"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"When will ULA stop launching payloads altogether before [----] before [----] [----] or later before [----] before [----] before [----] [----] or later before 2040"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I've been saying for years that ULA should have gone all liquid with Vulcan. Didn't expect reliability to hit them so bad with solids though. Btw the same company making Vulcans solids makes the solids that go on SLS"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:51Z [----] followers, 11.2K engagements

"@mnmcsofgp @Amazonleo Starship isn't opening up for Kuiper for a long long time. The others except F9 NG Vulcan and Neutron aren't even planning on much capacity even putting aside ramp up time"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@MarnerJoshua Yes https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2025/06/bole-dm1-test/ https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2025/06/bole-dm1-test/"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@ApolloFalc9 @Amazonleo Broken culture"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Blue Origin sniper I wonder if the FBI looks into sabotage for stuff like this Classified national security payloads nearly not making it to orbit because of hardware failures Probably not sabotage but maybe its worth ruling out atp lol. I wonder if the FBI looks into sabotage for stuff like this Classified national security payloads nearly not making it to orbit because of hardware failures Probably not sabotage but maybe its worth ruling out atp lol"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@reganh48 @ApolloFalc9 @Amazonleo They should have taken the AJR offer but Boeing messed that up too"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@MarkDGibb The nozzles are new. And the BOLE redesign we're already paying for flights 9+ has already encountered the same issue on the test stand"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@catalinafrog Show me where they said that. And we should be putting large telescopes in space anyway"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"It's not a given that ULA will have even finished their Phase [--] backlog by the time Phase [--] selection rolls around. At a certain point failure to deliver catches up with even the most entranced players. I'm not saying they won't make it. I'm just saying they're far from guaranteed to"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"I can't decide if the "analyst" is actually clueless about the launch industry or just trying to pump other launch companies' stock. How SpaceX can realistically scale to [--] million satellites in orbit: Itll be their satellites but they dont have to put them up themselves . they can outsource "There's going to be many rockets going up and it'll be a daily occurrence. @JosephAlagna2 Buttonwood https://t.co/xMnyOXP9pV How SpaceX can realistically scale to [--] million satellites in orbit: Itll be their satellites but they dont have to put them up themselves . they can outsource "There's going to be"
X Link 2026-02-12T23:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Exogynous Yes that would add up to at most [-----] lines"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"He was never a serious prognosticator speculator or philosopher. He's got fantastic oratory skills though. Neil Tyson is retarded too. Maybe he is too old now he just doesn't get it. https://t.co/3Yc1Et2Idm Neil Tyson is retarded too. Maybe he is too old now he just doesn't get it. https://t.co/3Yc1Et2Idm"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Exogynous Not really you just look for loops in the callable chain. Since you don't allow function pointers this is a pretty straightforward static check"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Yeah you need non-90 inclination to have precession at all. Retrograde to have negative precession. And the idea is to tune the rate of negative precession to the angular rate of Earth's movement around the Sun. The higher the altitude the less precession you get so you increase the inclination to compensate"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Okay let's be concrete. Show me one of these recursively oriented language designed for mathematically provable code that has type level static bounds & induction proof tooling for ensuring that any given piece of code executes using less than x cycles and y memory and where x and y are no more than [---] times their C equivalents. I'm not saying they don't exist. I'm happy to learn something new here. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022118390002008084 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022118390002008084"
X Link 2026-02-13T01:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@HipernovaStar That's it. Open up the borders"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@HipernovaStar This is why the bugs hit Buenos Aires"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"We all know why they "chose" Europe along with ULA Blue Origin and eventually grudgingly SpaceX. But big congratulations on [--] solid booster nozzles that all stayed attached for the duration of their burn today. Amazon your package has been delivered. Ariane [--] has lifted off for the first time with four boosters making it our most powerful European launcher On board: [--] satellites for Amazons constellation. Amazon chose Europe for this major launch. https://t.co/x0UNAoT3w8 Amazon your package has been delivered. Ariane [--] has lifted off for the first time with four boosters making it our most"
X Link 2026-02-13T03:48Z [----] followers, 18.7K engagements

"@grok @rik_vdk @SpeedAmbassador @EmmanuelMacron Source for the Ariane [--] prices"
X Link 2026-02-13T03:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@grok @rik_vdk @SpeedAmbassador @EmmanuelMacron Yeah the first two aren't real sources and the last is a lowerbound not an estimate"
X Link 2026-02-13T06:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"33t with LAS doesn't require 33t to LEO. B/c the LAS gets jettisoned long before you need 28t of LEO performance. If you look at the ULA's payload table for Vulcan it's pretty obvious that payload is capped at 27.2t but would actually be 29t to LEO-REF pre-upgrade and 30t post-upgrade. The limit might be structural -- if so it's a limit that a (not-so-)hypothetical CVL and custom Orion PAF (needed anyway) could easily overcome as well as adding 1t of extra performance by lightening the stage. To say nothing of the possibility of underfilling ESM which carries 8.6t of propellant including"
X Link 2026-02-13T08:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Orbital_Perigee That was always Vulcan's problem -- it's a worse version of a worse version of New Glenn"
X Link 2026-02-13T09:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Marc_Desm No"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Well they've divided their request into [--] altitude bands so a million sats would need an average of 1.5km center to center. Separation would depend on size. But I do think it'll make more sense to a) do tighter and more numerous bands and b) eventually reduce sat count (in SSO) while making them colossal"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@launchallvipers Boeing used to build reliable planes too"
X Link 2026-02-13T21:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@Marc_Desm No"
X Link 2026-02-13T21:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@ThePrimalDino [--] in flight test is not proof. Are you suggesting Block [--] is not SLS"
X Link 2026-02-13T21:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@dahm_mike Anything between very unlikely and highly likely is a reasonable estimate"
X Link 2026-02-13T21:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@kwrzesien Oh no I'm definitely worried about Orion"
X Link 2026-02-14T15:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@fakecarlsagan @Orbital_Perigee A 200tf one"
X Link 2026-02-15T02:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@fakecarlsagan @Orbital_Perigee At [--] bar it's a 97cm throat. Give the MCC a [---] contraction ratio and [--] aspect ratio and you've got L* around 1.8m. At ER of [--] it's a 1.94m nozzle diameter. Vac isp near 280s. And easy to cool because of its size and pressure"
X Link 2026-02-15T02:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Lunar vacations were always on the horizon. Glad to see SpaceX take it up. SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to Moon. This will so insanely cool 🚀💫🤩 SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to Moon. This will so insanely cool 🚀💫🤩"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"That looks like a barely managed roll. @ABernNYC @mdcainjr The Vulcan vehicle rolls during its wild ride to orbit in this tracking video captured south of the launch site by Max Q Productions @CarstensPete https://t.co/FvmkrvJYnz @ABernNYC @mdcainjr The Vulcan vehicle rolls during its wild ride to orbit in this tracking video captured south of the launch site by Max Q Productions @CarstensPete https://t.co/FvmkrvJYnz"
X Link 2026-02-12T23:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Give me [--] months 40ksqft $100M 100FTE of my choosing at the company and I'm 90% confident I could get it done under budget and 60% confident under [--] months late. And by done I mean a production line that could churn out enough boosters to support a 50/50 mix of [--] VC2 & VC6 flights /yr and 95% pass rate in acceptance testing"
X Link 2026-02-15T05:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@Devintcotter @Orbital_Perigee @Robotbeat Oh and at a total spend rate under $300M/yr for the equivalent of 100+ boosters a year"
X Link 2026-02-15T05:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@mr_aspartame @sol_hando @RockettLord https://ozanbellik.blogspot.com/2022/03/gray-dragon-on-falcon-heavy.htmlm=1 https://ozanbellik.blogspot.com/2022/03/gray-dragon-on-falcon-heavy.htmlm=1"
X Link 2026-02-16T01:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"I want to remind everyone of a few things: [--]. Anything short of a (mostly) self-sustaining human civilization on another world would be a failure from Elons perspective. Forget flags and footprints even a science base modeled after Antarctica is a complete non-starter as an end goal. Hes dead serious about [--] million people [--] million tons of cargo and 1000+ ships per synod. [--]. Hes talked a lot about his belief that we need to become a spacefaring civilization but also clarified that this isnt the only or main thing we should spend our resources on. Mentioned maybe 1%. [--]. He takes big risks and"
X Link 2025-12-10T20:45Z [----] followers, 15.4K engagements

"@Gayettix NSSL phase [--] is likely to already have [--] better (overall) providers: SX Blue Stoke. With a few more in the pipeline"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"I used to think I was an introvert. Then I realized I was just a socially awkward extrovert. After [--] years of marriage to an actual introvert this is still an alien experience to me. This is exactly how I be feeling. https://t.co/Z4ETLpS1YS This is exactly how I be feeling. https://t.co/Z4ETLpS1YS"
X Link 2026-02-13T01:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"That would be quite the comeback. Tbd I actually think it will be Terran-R. Theyre ahead of Neutron on the engine and the stages are coming together well. I actually think it will be Terran-R. Theyre ahead of Neutron on the engine and the stages are coming together well"
X Link 2026-02-13T06:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Vulcan's first flight also had two GEM63 XLs that flew without issues. How many of them ditched their nozzles in ground tests Then they had a failure on the second flight. That's okay. Accidents happen. Then they had [--] months to figure things out on the ground. And they recertified. For NatSec payloads. They had another good flight this time with [--] boosters. Then another failure. Seemingly the same kind. That's a major foul up. Call it incompetence bad QC inadequate analysis or very bad luck. It erodes confidence. This isn't a test flight. Yes I know about the thrust but it's not really"
X Link 2026-02-14T04:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"So BO's lunar plans have them scrambling to be the hare. I got a peek at Blue Origins new lunar plans. Heres what I found: https://t.co/cOEKOK9aKd I got a peek at Blue Origins new lunar plans. Heres what I found: https://t.co/cOEKOK9aKd"
X Link 2026-02-14T05:10Z [----] followers, 11.4K engagements

"This. Yeah it's probably going to be fine. The Shuttle was also fine [---] out of [---] flights. But when you have so many possible ways to catastrophically fail you need to make sure they're all (or at least almost all) extremely unlikely just to get an acceptably low risk for a daredevil. Almost none of those failure modes get tested enough to have adequate statistical safety. For confidence you rely on models. And when you encounter a major mismatch between your model and the real world you have to get to the bottom of it. Otherwise your confidence is unfounded. @deltaIV9250 Most likely"
X Link 2026-02-14T05:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"It'll probably fly and they'll probably be fine. But this risk level should be unacceptable with NASA astronauts and this contractor and management performance is inexcusable with this budget and timeline. Just to be clear here NASA declared its recent test a "successful wet dress rehearsal" despite missing its T-30s target by almost five minutes botching the dreaded Orion hatch close out procedure and managing to achieve up to 16% H2 due to copious leakage at the fueling Just to be clear here NASA declared its recent test a "successful wet dress rehearsal" despite missing its T-30s target by"
X Link 2026-02-14T15:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"It isn't just a case of hardware failure. It's a major failure of quality assurance. @ThePrimalDino Vulcan's first flight also had two GEM63 XLs that flew without issues. How many of them ditched their nozzles in ground tests Then they had a failure on the second flight. That's okay. Accidents happen. Then they had [--] months to figure things out on the ground. And they @ThePrimalDino Vulcan's first flight also had two GEM63 XLs that flew without issues. How many of them ditched their nozzles in ground tests Then they had a failure on the second flight. That's okay. Accidents happen. Then they"
X Link 2026-02-14T15:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I know how ULA could cost effectively ditch the GEMs and I know they're not going to do it"
X Link 2026-02-14T23:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"2/117 is a bigger number than 3/599. About [--] times as big in fact. @AndrewParsonson Do you understand what the word rate means @AndrewParsonson Do you understand what the word rate means"
X Link 2026-02-15T01:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@fakecarlsagan @Orbital_Perigee Love to see it. And keep in mind you don't need composites to replace solid boosters. 4-6mm of steel wall at this scale works well so long as you moderately increase prop load which there's room for even with the lower density of kerolox"
X Link 2026-02-15T02:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"I'm not surprised by the state of SLS ground systems b/c I remember Delta IV Heavy launches slipping by months b/c of such issues with infrequently used hydrolox equipment. And we all knew the EGS budget was money down the drain didn't we"
X Link 2026-02-15T06:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The statistically most reliable launch vehicle ever made is the SpaceX Falcon [--]. The only LV that can even compare is the Atlas V. There is no European launch vehicle that comes remotely close. Ariane [--] has had a total of [--] flights so its 100% success rate so far means very little. It could have a probability of failure as high as 10% and still have a better than 50% chance of having no failures over [--] flights. The Shuttle had [--] successful flights before its first disastrous failed launch. (The Falcon Heavy btw also has a perfect track record so far. With [--] flights.) The most recent Ariane"
X Link 2026-02-15T19:27Z [----] followers, 373.7K engagements

"Big Maezawa L Appreciate the candor here from @Erdayastronaut on the dearMoon debacle. https://t.co/5GxyiybXQM Appreciate the candor here from @Erdayastronaut on the dearMoon debacle. https://t.co/5GxyiybXQM"
X Link 2026-02-15T19:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@MartianSurveyor Yes even n+2 is common for high confidence"
X Link 2026-02-15T19:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Neutron S1 has a rated vacuum thrust over [---] metric tons and likely to grow over time. Depending on recovery mode the interstage could in theory end up getting loaded to over 2/3 of that near MECO since the dry mass of S1 below the interstage should be less than half the mass of the everything carried by the interstage esp. for a max payload flight. But I'd expect the engines to be throttled such that the actual peak compressive load on the interstage is in the 250-400t range. But since they're working with carbon fiber they need to operate with a big safety factor. Neutron testing continues"
X Link 2026-02-15T20:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@BoosterTribe Orbcomm as the secondary payload on the CRS-1 launch"
X Link 2026-02-15T21:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@algern0n79 Yeah I guess I'm cutting them some slack since rocket de-orbits payload on purpose is a very uncommon ask and F9 has had a number of low profile de-orbit failures"
X Link 2026-02-15T21:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I accept Wow this one got away from me. I really shouldn't do maths which you're right I suck at at ten at night on a Saturday and apply it to a badly formulated argument. To clarify yes Falcon [--] is an extremely reliable vehicle. Possibly the most reliable in history. Atlas V is Wow this one got away from me. I really shouldn't do maths which you're right I suck at at ten at night on a Saturday and apply it to a badly formulated argument. To clarify yes Falcon [--] is an extremely reliable vehicle. Possibly the most reliable in history. Atlas V is"
X Link 2026-02-15T21:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Even if you're bearish on the medium term economics of extracting oxygen from regolith the final argument in favor of lunar oxygen in the long term is that given unlimited energy the amount of oxygen you can extract from the Moon without causing an environmental catastrophe on Earth is orders of magnitude greater than the amount of oxygen you can extract from the Earth. For any treshold of environmental catastrophe short of obliterating all of the Earth's crust and then some. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023168722517827713 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023168722517827713"
X Link 2026-02-15T22:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Robotbeat I count [--] docking port on the lander [--] docking collars and [--] sets of docking clamps"
X Link 2026-02-15T22:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Robotbeat @MarkHolum Hm I'm interested in @TerraformIndies 's experience with this. What happens to the carbon that doesn't leave as methane or get cycled back as CO2"
X Link 2026-02-16T00:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"Bullish for Neutron reusability Nice to get an up-close look at the fairing assembly as well - for fairing half SN169 this will be its 23rd flight. https://t.co/HwXrKaUwqq Nice to get an up-close look at the fairing assembly as well - for fairing half SN169 this will be its 23rd flight. https://t.co/HwXrKaUwqq"
X Link 2026-02-16T00:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@mr_aspartame @sol_hando @RockettLord FH has 15-20t TLI capability depending on whether you go by NASA estimates & demonstrated capability or SpaceX claims (likely leaning on upgrades within reach). The lower end is enough for a COTS-D Dragon [--] based solution. The upper end is plenty for a Dragon [--] based solution"
X Link 2026-02-16T01:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@MBB_theB Well I did give A6 a freebie. At the end of the day it's not enough data but it's also about overall risk management and when you're off by an order of magnitude"
X Link 2026-02-16T03:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@AybalaF58253 The gas giants are great. But also the asteroid belt"
X Link 2026-02-16T04:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@Exogynous Yeah it's just a matter of what you have more demand for"
X Link 2026-02-16T05:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@squeaky2031 @Yrouel86 But he's not talking about the launch vehicle program. He's talking about about each flight. Of one launch vehicle"
X Link 2026-02-16T05:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I feel like a lot of people missed this @squeaky2031 @Yrouel86 But he's not talking about the launch vehicle program. He's talking about about each flight. Of one launch vehicle. @squeaky2031 @Yrouel86 But he's not talking about the launch vehicle program. He's talking about about each flight. Of one launch vehicle"
X Link 2026-02-16T05:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

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