@Banu_KT Banu Kıvcı Tokalı
Banu Kıvcı Tokalı posts on X about inflation, in the, bank of, daha the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.
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- [--] Month [------] +183%
- [--] Months [-------] +18,660%
- [--] Year [-------] +6,221%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] +217%
- [--] Month [---] +123%
- [--] Months [---] +2,473%
- [--] Year [---] +984%
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] +0.77%
- [--] Month [-----] +3.50%
- [--] Months [-----] +18%
- [--] Year [-----] +21%
CreatorRank: [-------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance countries currencies cryptocurrencies stocks automotive brands travel destinations technology brands exchanges financial services
Social topic influence inflation, in the, bank of, daha, level, iin, bitcoin #5259, art, fed, yeni
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @petrolandeco @robinjbrooks @ft @suheylays @muhammedoz94891 @economics @nicktimiraos @guraymollaoglu @fikretkolabas @1611trader @33memedelli @marbasmenkul @forinvesthaber @goldmansachs @isportfoy @handenazozcnn @cengizbozolu8 @klan39656406 @ronstoeferle @charliebilello
Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) Ethereum (ETH) Goldman Sachs (GS)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"@RonStoeferle Does a really gap exist if we take into account total liquidity instead of solely balance sheet"
X Link 2023-11-29T04:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@charliebilello Moreover the realized net liquidity draining has been just 1/3 of the reduction of balance sheet"
X Link 2023-12-05T04:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#Moody's #in 'in grnm notunu duraandan negatife ekti. Yumuak ini senaryolar risk altnda grnyor"
X Link 2023-12-05T07:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#2024 grnmne erken giri: #BoJ negatif faiz ortamna son vermeyi gndemine alyor. #USD/JPY [---] seviyesinin altna hzl d gsterdi"
X Link 2023-12-07T11:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#Konut piyasas #2024 'n nemli krlganlklarndan biri olmaya aday: Hong Kong'ta konut fiyatlar 2017'den sonra en dk seviyede. Hong Kong Housing Prices fall to lowest level since [----] https://t.co/Fm00EEg7Ec Hong Kong Housing Prices fall to lowest level since [----] https://t.co/Fm00EEg7Ec"
X Link 2023-12-28T04:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"' #2024 #Japon Yeni'nin yl olabilir .' [----] temas erken balam gibi duruyor. #USD/JPY paritesi 140'l seviyelerde. Temmuz ayndan sonra en dk seviye. [----] Could Be the Year of the Yen - WSJ"
X Link 2023-12-28T12:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#Bitcoin [--] ay sonra tekrar $45000 seviyesinin zerinde. #SEC 'in ETF Bitcoin'i [--] Ocak son tarihinden nce onaylam olmas ana etken. @crypto araclyla"
X Link 2024-01-02T05:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#ECB /de Guindos: ' #Euro gstergeler Aralk'ta ekonomik daralmaya iaret ederek 2023'n 2.yarsnda teknik durgunluk olasln doruluyor.' '2023'teki hzl enflasyon d 2024'te yavalayacak.'"
X Link 2024-01-10T09:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#Euro blgesinde yeni ara kaytlar zayflama ynnde. Almanya'da aylk ve yllk srasyla %16 ve %23'lk dler dikkat ekiyor. EU27 New Car Registrations Dec: -3.3% (prev 6.7%) EU27 New Car Registrations Dec: -3.3% (prev 6.7%)"
X Link 2024-01-18T07:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Yeni haftaya #Hong Kong hisse piyasasnn [------] kritik seviyesinin altn grmesiyle balyoruz. Bu seviye 2008-2009 2000-2001 ve [----] dnemlerinde aa krlma gstermiti"
X Link 2024-01-22T04:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"#in 'de #TFE son [--] yln en hzl dn gsterdi. Yllk enf [--] aydr ekside. Konut sorunlar irket deerlemelerinde hzl d ihracatta zayflamann yansmalar. Chinas prices fall at fastest rate in [--] years as economy battles deflation"
X Link 2024-02-08T04:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Amazon'un Bezos'undan sonra #JPM 'nin #Dimon ' da hisse pozisyonunu azaltmay tercih etti. 2024'te 'nakitte kalma' tercihi belirginleiyor"
X Link 2024-02-23T05:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Bugn hem #Euro blgesinde hem de #ABD 'de #enflasyon gn: #Almanya 'nn eyaletler baznda ubat enflasyonunda ve ABD'de #Fed 'in politika belirlemede ana gstergesi #PCE 'nin Ocak rakamlarnda dn hz nemli olacak"
X Link 2024-02-29T04:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#Fed 'de park eden para Mays 2021'den beri en dk seviyede. #Bilano daralmasna karn ters repo #likiditeyi dengeleyici nemli kalem olarak kalyor"
X Link 2024-03-04T04:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#S&P500 de bir miktar balon olutu mu yoksa piyasada ykseli potansiyeli devam ediyor ve bu sefer farkl m ki farkl gr. Jamie Dimon Sees "Little Bit Of A Bubble In Stock Markets Right Now" But BofA Says Buy Because This Time It's Different https://t.co/K0btfEOA81 Jamie Dimon Sees "Little Bit Of A Bubble In Stock Markets Right Now" But BofA Says Buy Because This Time It's Different https://t.co/K0btfEOA81"
X Link 2024-03-12T03:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#BoJ 'un nagatif faiz ortamndan k kararna karn Japon yeni deer kaybediyor. USD/JPY tekrar [---] zerinde. En son [--] Mart'ta bu seviyedeydi. Yksek cret ve enflasyon ortam nedeniyle piyasalarn faizin yan sra miktarsal sklamada da netlik grmek istedii anlalyor"
X Link 2024-03-19T04:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"#USD/JPY 151'in zerine ykseliini srdrrken; 'Bay Yen' #Sakakibara yenin dolar karsnda 155-160 bandna zayflamas durumunda mdahalenin gelebilecei tahmininde bulundu. Ayrca paritenin bu yl sonu veya gelecek yl banda [---] seviyesine geri gelebileceini de ekledi"
X Link 2024-03-20T06:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#ABD seimleri ncesi politika tercihleri belirginleiyor: #in 'e kar sert vergi artlar; zellikle alminyum elik kritik mineraller solar salk gibi stratejik sektrlerde. @ft araclyla"
X Link 2024-05-14T09:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@MuhammedOz94891 @economics bir adan yrtlen para politikas nedeniyle. talepteki etkileri belirgin"
X Link 2024-05-16T05:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#BoJ sklamada yava kalmann skntlarn yaamaya devam ediyor. USD/JPY [---] zerinde; 10Y tahvil faizi %108 ile 2011'den sonra en yksek seviyede"
X Link 2024-05-29T06:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Suudi #Aramco 'nun $10-20mly lk 2.halka arz bekleniyor. 2019'da $294mly ile en yksek seviyeye ulaan halka arz satnn ardndan ilgi ABD PCE verisinin ardndan kresel piyasalarn gelecek hafta balangcnda nemli olacak"
X Link 2024-05-30T08:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#BoJ 'un tahvil alm miktarn ne oranda azaltaca ve ikinci faiz artrmnn ne zaman geleceine dair sinyalleri bekleniyor. @economics araclyla https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-10/boj-expected-to-mull-bond-buying-cuts-as-rate-hike-timing-nearsutm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twittersref=z3hzjAYz https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-10/boj-expected-to-mull-bond-buying-cuts-as-rate-hike-timing-nearsutm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twittersref=z3hzjAYz"
X Link 2024-06-11T04:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#BoJ sklamada yava kalmaya devam ediyor. Faizleri beklendii gibi sabit brakrken; tahvil alm miktarnda azaltma kararn da Temmuz toplantsna brakt. #USD/JPY [---] snrnda; 2Y #tahvil faizi %030'un altnda"
X Link 2024-06-14T04:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#BoJ sklamada szl ynlendirme boyutunda kaldka #yen zerinde deer kayb basklar artyor. #USD/JPY iin 1986'da grlen [---] seviyesi gndemde. @markets araclyla"
X Link 2024-06-25T04:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#USD/JPY [------] seviyesinde; Aralk 1986'dan sonra ilk kez. #Yuan da dolar karsnda 730'un zerinde. Merkez bankalarnn aksiyonu nemli olacak"
X Link 2024-06-26T11:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Bidenin Kamala Harrisi iaret etmesiyle Trump senaryolar tekrar g kazanm grnyor. Kresel piyasalar Demokratlarn Austos ayndaki kurultayna kadar olduka hareketli olacak gibi"
X Link 2024-07-21T18:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"ABD Bakan yardmcs #Kamala Harris'in kritik politika alanlarnda duruu. @ft araclyla"
X Link 2024-07-23T04:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"zlebilecek yen carry trade hala nemli dzeyde. #UBS toplam [---] mly dolarlk carry trade pozisyonunun ancak [---] mily dolarnn zldn tahmin ediyor"
X Link 2024-08-07T17:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@elerianm is it too optimistic to forecast a rate cut cycle while services consumer inflation stays robust"
X Link 2024-08-13T12:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#Goldman Sachs #S&P500 ngrlerinde yukar revizyona gitti: [--] aylk endeks hedefini 6000den 6300e; hisse bana kazanlarda art beklentisini [----] iin %6dan %11e ykseltti. Goldman's new SPX price targets and EPS forecasts.including a first look into [----] https://t.co/wvxcLIbJkl Goldman's new SPX price targets and EPS forecasts.including a first look into [----] https://t.co/wvxcLIbJkl"
X Link 2024-10-06T15:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#ABD #30Y tahvil faiz oran [--] yldan sonra ilk defa #Fed #faiz orannn zerinde. Gemi dnemde [----] ve [----] krizleri ncesinde gzlenmiti. Bu sefer #resesyon senaryosu gereklemeyebilir. Para politikas destek alan hem faiz hem de bilano tarafnda geni. BREAKING: The 30-year Treasury yield has surpassed the Fed Funds rate for the first time since Q4 [----]. This comes as the 30-year Treasury yield has risen [--] basis points over the last [--] months. At the same time the Fed has cut rates two times from 5.50% to 4.75%. In https://t.co/4zIX93vF1m BREAKING: The 30-year Treasury yield has surpassed the Fed Funds"
X Link 2024-11-17T11:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#Goldman Sachs #S&P500 iin #2025 sonu hedefini 6.500e ykseltti. Goldman: "We forecast the S&P [---] index will rise to [----] by year-end [----] reflecting an 11% price gain from the current level and 12% total return with dividends" Goldman: "We forecast the S&P [---] index will rise to [----] by year-end [----] reflecting an 11% price gain from the current level and 12% total return with dividends""
X Link 2024-11-19T04:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#Morgan Stanley: Dolar satma zaman Dump the U.S. Dollar cautions Morgan Stanley 🚨 https://t.co/VV4ovTbEcf Dump the U.S. Dollar cautions Morgan Stanley 🚨 https://t.co/VV4ovTbEcf"
X Link 2024-12-10T04:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Bu sefer #faiz ngrsnde #Fed piyasaya yansd. #2025 te [--] faiz indirimi genel beklenti. Piyasa faiz indirimine Ocak aynda ara bekliyor. 📊 Rate futures signal Fed pause in January two cuts priced for [----] Tickers of interest: $FF $ZN Full Story https://t.co/ABtOH7qxgM Federal funds rate futures indicate the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in January following its recent 25-bps cut. LSEG estimates https://t.co/sLvGUaAUbt 📊 Rate futures signal Fed pause in January two cuts priced for [----] Tickers of interest: $FF $ZN Full Story https://t.co/ABtOH7qxgM Federal funds rate futures indicate"
X Link 2024-12-18T19:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"My analysis of the Central Bank of Turkeys interest rate decision #TCMB #rate #inflation #currency https://www.linkedin.com/posts/banu-k%C4%B1vc%C4%B1-tokal%C4%B1-75a41817_my-analysis-of-the-central-bank-of-turkey-activity-7354140743269048320-XxFDutm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&rcm=ACoAAANxazYBOjxtgJ5FYJjrZZsniJXxO30YaQo https://www.linkedin.com/posts/banu-k%C4%B1vc%C4%B1-tokal%C4%B1-75a41817_my-analysis-of-the-central-bank-of-turkey-activity-7354140743269048320-XxFDutm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&rcm=ACoAAANxazYBOjxtgJ5FYJjrZZsniJXxO30YaQo"
X Link 2025-07-24T13:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"In the continuance of weakness of the Dollar Index and the rise of EUR/USD which central bank will be more influential - Fed or ECB #DXY #EUR/USD #Fed #ECB #rates https://www.linkedin.com/posts/banu-k%C4%B1vc%C4%B1-tokal%C4%B1-75a41817_in-the-continuance-of-weakness-of-the-dollar-activity-7360631760168148992-VWbtutm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAANxazYBOjxtgJ5FYJjrZZsniJXxO30YaQo"
X Link 2025-08-11T11:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Central Bank of Turkey revises inflation rorecast range and introduces interim target concept #CBRT #inflation #rates https://www.linkedin.com/posts/banu-k%C4%B1vc%C4%B1-tokal%C4%B1-75a41817_banu-k%C4%B1vc%C4%B1-tokal%C4%B1-banukt-on-x-activity-7361690747747688448-hbBTutm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAANxazYBOjxtgJ5FYJjrZZsniJXxO30YaQo https://www.linkedin.com/posts/banu-k%C4%B1vc%C4%B1-tokal%C4%B1-75a41817_banu-k%C4%B1vc%C4%B1-tokal%C4%B1-banukt-on-x-activity-7361690747747688448-hbBTutm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAANxazYBOjxtgJ5FYJjrZZsniJXxO30YaQo"
X Link 2025-08-14T09:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"He was on the ground for less than five hours but Putin got what he came for: A return to the top table of great-power diplomacy. He was welcomed onto American soil by the leader of the free world - and didnt make a single concession He was on the ground in Alaska for less than five hours but Putin got what he came for https://t.co/9gZHwcEmoJ He was on the ground in Alaska for less than five hours but Putin got what he came for https://t.co/9gZHwcEmoJ"
X Link 2025-08-16T06:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Powell/Jackson Hole: Between notions of a strange balance and a new normal a looming but uncertain rate cut cycle #Powell #JacksonHole #FederalReserve https://www.linkedin.com/posts/banu-k%C4%B1vc%C4%B1-tokal%C4%B1-75a41817_powelljackson-hole-between-notions-of-a-activity-7364674808262881281-Clleutm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAANxazYBOjxtgJ5FYJjrZZsniJXxO30YaQo"
X Link 2025-08-22T15:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"My CPI inflation forecast for August is 1.88%. After the July inflation data my initial assessment was: 'Once the impact of public price adjustments fades the monthly inflation rate could fall below 2% in August.' #CPI #Augustinflation #CBRT #inflation https://www.linkedin.com/posts/banu-k%C4%B1vc%C4%B1-tokal%C4%B1-75a41817_my-cpi-inflation-forecast-for-august-is-188-activity-7364975647070334977-K2neutm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAANxazYBOjxtgJ5FYJjrZZsniJXxO30YaQo"
X Link 2025-08-23T11:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ISABELNET_SA @jpmorgan The bond market appears to have given back its post-Jackson Hole gains with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing back above 4.30"
X Link 2025-08-26T08:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The rise in long-term bond yields is global. As the U.S. 30Y yields once again approaches the 5% threshold Japans 30Y is hovering near historic highs. A prolonged period of high inflation -beyond initial expectations-combined with challenges in managing inflation expectations the growing burden of public debt and budget deficits and uncertainties stemming from global tariffs are all contributing to persistent risks in the bond market"
X Link 2025-08-27T18:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Nvidias highly anticipated Q2 earnings report exceeded expectations in both revenue and earnings per share. However performance in the critical data center segment fell short. It was already expected that Q2 results would not include revenue from H20 chips. Still the Q3 revenue projection points to a lower bound that falls below market expectations #Nvidia #H20chips"
X Link 2025-08-27T20:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@TaviCosta Amid rising risks in the bond market and ongoing global economic and geopolitical uncertainties golds strengthening position as a safe haven asset is likely to sustain this trend"
X Link 2025-08-28T07:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@LiveSquawk Although inflation in the Euro area remains aligned with the target outlook the latest data -coming in above expectations- has nearly eliminated the possibility of an interest rate cut by the ECB in October"
X Link 2025-09-02T09:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@KobeissiLetter in cases where interest rate cuts fail to restore confidence"
X Link 2025-09-02T12:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Following strong Q2 growth in the Turkish economy although Central Bank Governor Karahan did not introduce major changes in his latest presentation compared to previous ones he emphasized the phrase tightness required by disinflation in relation to the scale of interest rate actions. In the current environment where political developments are taking center stage this determined stance becomes even more meaningful #CBRT #Karahan #ratecuts #inflation #monetarystance https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/92eee01a-33a1-4251-acb7-a6e1e9c68b69/SunumB02_09_2025.pdfMOD=AJPERES"
X Link 2025-09-02T15:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"FX-protected deposit accounts (KKM) have dropped below $10 billion. The share of Turkish lira deposits excluding KKM has reached 60.7% the highest level of the year. Foreign exchange deposits are declining across both households and corporates #KKM #TRLdeposits #FXdeposits"
X Link 2025-09-04T11:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Central Bank Governor Karahan stated that based on the latest growth and inflation data -along with detailed indicators and underlying trends- there are no signs of disruption to the disinflation process. Given this outlook it seems increasingly likely that the interest rate cut cycle will continue next week. However the real question remains: Is the degree of monetary policy tightness being sustained at a level sufficient to achieve the interim inflation target of 24% #Karahan #Inflation #Growth #MonetaryPolicy #CBRT Turkeys central bank Governor Fatih Karahan struck an optimistic note on"
X Link 2025-09-05T05:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Evaluations by Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan on Disinflation and Policy Stance. #Karahan #CBRT #Inflation #Growth #MPC https://www.linkedin.com/posts/banu-k%C4%B1vc%C4%B1-tokal%C4%B1-75a41817_in-a-week-marked-by-critical-political-and-activity-7369616443656658947-wx6Butm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAANxazYBOjxtgJ5FYJjrZZsniJXxO30YaQo https://www.linkedin.com/posts/banu-k%C4%B1vc%C4%B1-tokal%C4%B1-75a41817_in-a-week-marked-by-critical-political-and-activity-7369616443656658947-wx6Butm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAANxazYBOjxtgJ5FYJjrZZsniJXxO30YaQo"
X Link 2025-09-05T06:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Another weak jobs report from the U.S. #USJobs #FOMC #NonfarmPayrolls #Unemployment In August nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22K well below expectations and far from the Feds 'maximum employment' target. Revisions to previous months were modest: July was slightly revised upward from 73K to 79K while June and May gains were held at 14K and 19K respectively. As a result the three-month average as of July stood at a low 35K and with August data included the four-month average remains subdued at 33K. Meanwhile the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% marking its highest level since October 2021."
X Link 2025-09-05T12:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Concerning the Turkish economy following strong Q2 growth figures and a broad revision of previous data this years growth forecast is being revised upward. Fitch now projects a 3.5% growth rate for [----] while Ive already adjusted my own forecast to 3.4% in light of the updated data. On the other hand the outlook through [----] remains stable but below potential. My growth projections for the [--------] period stand at 3.5% 4.0% and 4.5% respectively -indicating a gradual upward trend yet still short of full potential. #Growth #Fitch #TurkishEconomy"
X Link 2025-09-10T07:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@NickTimiraos Even Trumps nominee is choosing a cautious stance toward weak employment data. The possibility of a jumbo rate cut or an uniterrepted easing cycle may now be questioned"
X Link 2025-09-10T08:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Although overshadowed by the weekly unemployment figures which came in well above expectations and recent trends U.S. inflation data continues to signal persistent risks in terms of inflation stickiness. #USInflation #CPI #UnemploymentClaims 📌 A noticeable acceleration in monthly price increases for food and energy; 📌 Significant price hikes in both new and used vehicles compared to previous months; 📌 Service inflation remains under pressure particularly from rents and transportation costs; 📌 Healthcare services which had previously contributed to inflationary pressures now show a more"
X Link 2025-09-11T14:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"In July Turkey's current account posted a surplus of $1.8 billion (market forecast was $11bn my forecast was $2bn). For the first time since October [----] the 12-month deficit shows signs of a downward trend. #CurrentAccount #BalanceOfPayments #CBRT"
X Link 2025-09-12T07:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"According to the CBRT Market Participants Survey interest rate cuts of [---] basis points in October and [---] basis points in December are expected. 📌 The year-end policy rate forecast for [----] stands at 36% while the [----] year-end forecast is 25% (my expectations are 36% and 27% respectively). 📌 Assuming [--] MPC meetings in [----] the average rate cut per meeting is projected to decline to the [------] basis point range. #MarketParticipants #CBRT #PolicyRate"
X Link 2025-09-12T08:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"IMF Highlights Growing Divergence in Global Current Account Balances The IMF has released a note warning of a deepening divide between economies with current account surpluses and those with deficits. This growing imbalance may reflect a structural shift in the global economy and when surpluses or deficits reach excessive levels they can heighten global risks and vulnerabilities. The report emphasizes that current account developments in many countries are not aligned with underlying economic fundamentals raising concerns about potential abrupt and painful adjustment shocks in the future. To"
X Link 2025-09-13T15:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The central government budget posted its second monthly surplus of the year following May. Compared to the deficit in August last year the outlook appears significantly stronger. 📌 When I calculate the 12-month budget deficit I find it at 3.6% -the lowest level of the year. It seems likely to close the year at similar levels. 📌 However a ratio below 3% appears achievable only from [----] onwards. #CentralBudget #FiscalDiscipline #BudgetDeficitRatio"
X Link 2025-09-15T11:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Fed Begins Rate Cut Cycle with Expected [--] Basis Point Move-But Projections Spark Debate #FOMC #Powell #Miran While the Federal Reserves decision to initiate its rate cut cycle with a [--] basis point reduction was widely anticipated the accompanying projections suggest that discussions around the Feds policy path are far from over. 📌Mirans Dissent Signals Internal Shifts Notably newly appointed Fed Governor Stephen Miranconsidered a leading candidate to succeed Chair Powellvoted in favor of a more aggressive [--] basis point cut. Looking at the [----] rate projections the committee remains deeply"
X Link 2025-09-17T19:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Turkeys Central Bank (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting minutes dated September [--] includes inflation expectations for September: #CBRT #MPC #SeptemberInflation 📌Food Prices: Preliminary indicators suggest that food prices will exert upward pressure on monthly inflation. Due to ongoing supply-side effects stemming from drought unprocessed food pricesespecially vegetables white meat and eggshave risen. Similarly processed food prices are increasing led by items such as vegetable oils and dairy products. 📌Service Prices: The inflationary pressure this month is not limited to food."
X Link 2025-09-18T11:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The BIST bank-to-industry ratio has fallen below [----]. Upward risks related to September inflation combined with the post-Fed upward trend in U.S. long-term bond yields may continue to weigh on bank stocks #BankToIndustry #SeptemberInflation #US10Y"
X Link 2025-09-18T13:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Wages are lending support to the ECBs disinflation process. The leading indicator used to track and analyze wage developments points to a 1.7% annual increase for the first half of [----] a notable slowdown compared to 4.3% in H1 [----] and 2.1% in H2 [----] #ECB #WageTracker https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.pr25091710ff519cc5.en.html https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.pr25091710ff519cc5.en.html"
X Link 2025-09-19T10:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"My CPI inflation forecast for September is 2.64%; the likelihood of year-end inflation exceeding the upper bound of the CBRTs forecast range is increasing #SeptemberInflation #CPI #InflationForecast In May-June monthly CPI inflation fell below 2% fueling optimistic expectations for a faster decline in annual inflation. Unfortunately in the following two months inflation climbed back above that threshold. My projection for September points to a further acceleration beyond those levels. Although the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) referenced developments likely to exert upward"
X Link 2025-09-22T12:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Key counterpoints from Fed member Goolsbee in response to remarks made by Miran yesterday: 📌 Goolsbee described monetary policy as moderately restrictive countering Mirans characterization of it as excessively restrictive. 📌 He stated that the neutral interest rate is currently [------] basis points below the current rate in contrast to Mirans estimate of [---] basis points. 📌 Goolsbee warned that any discussion of raising the 2% inflation target is very dangerous. While Miran did not explicitly call for a change in the inflation target he emphasized expectations that rent inflation would"
X Link 2025-09-23T13:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The atmosphere of the latest Fed rate meetingmarked by internal divisions and a controversial rate cut with no guaranteed follow-uphas continued over the past two days through statements from Fed officials and the Chair. It began yesterday with a speech by Stephen Miran one of the leading candidates for Fed Chair at the New York Economic Club. Today Austan Goolsbee responded with remarks that clearly countered Mirans views. This was followed by comments from Michelle Bowman considered part of the Miran camp and finally by Fed Chair Jerome Powell whose statements further sharpened the internal"
X Link 2025-09-23T17:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"U.S. stock markets are under pressure from weakening momentum driven by notable sell-offs in Nvidia and Oracle shares. The VIX volatility index which has been struggling to find direction in recent days has once again climbed above the [--] level #SP500 #Nvidia #VIX The atmosphere of the latest Fed rate meetingmarked by internal divisions and a controversial rate cut with no guaranteed follow-uphas continued over the past two days through statements from Fed officials and the Chair. It began yesterday with a speech by Stephen Miran one The atmosphere of the latest Fed rate meetingmarked by"
X Link 2025-09-24T16:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"With upward pressures on September inflation gaining prominence we observe that the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) has brought forward its use of the 'interim target' as a tool to calibrate the tightness of its monetary policy. Considering the ambitious level of 16% set as the interim inflation target for [----] a slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts may be expected next month. #SeptemberInflation #CBRT #InflationTarget"
X Link 2025-09-25T05:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Feds newest but influential member Miran has reiterated his view that the policy rate remains [------] basis points tighter than necessary. His statement that the neutral rate should be reached within six months coincided with an upward revision to the already strong Q2 growth figuresreviving concerns that the Fed may not be acting in line with fundamental dynamics. In the current risk-off environment the VIX remains above [--] while Ethereum and Bitcoin continue to trade below their critical thresholds of $4000 and $112000 respectively. The euro-dollar exchange rate has slipped below [----] and"
X Link 2025-09-25T14:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The U.S. government shutdown in the grand scheme hasn't slowed the momentum of the stock market. However it does involve temporary correction phases. Especially this time the market entered the shutdown period at record highs. Uncertainty remains around President Trump's distinct approach and how long it will take both sides to reach a compromise. #USShutdown #Trump --- Historic US Government Shutdowns vs the S&P [---] (updated) https://t.co/7dTP1lJiBP Historic US Government Shutdowns vs the S&P [---] (updated) https://t.co/7dTP1lJiBP"
X Link 2025-10-01T06:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The latest ADP employment data in the U.S. appears weak enough to intensify pressure on the Fed to cut rates this montheven if the government shutdown drags on and Fridays nonfarm payrolls report is delayed. Both the unexpected decline in September employment despite forecasts for an increase and the sharp downward revision to August figures point to a labor market losing momentum. This reinforces the case for continued rate cuts driven by employment concerns. That said expectations for a 25-basis-point move remain unchanged❣ #ADP #USEmployment #Fed 🚨BREAKING: The US labor market is"
X Link 2025-10-01T12:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Strengthening of CBRT Reserves Continues As of October 1st the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) is calculated to have increased its gross reserves to $186 billion up from $183 billion on August 26th. Notably gold now accounts for more than half of total reserves reaching 52.6%. Decline in FX Deposits by Residents In the final week of August resident foreign exchange (FX) deposits reversed their upward trend. - After a cumulative increase of $3.8 billion over the previous three weeks corporate FX deposits dropped by $501 million. - Household FX deposits also declined by $838"
X Link 2025-10-02T12:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"While political and economic challenges persist in the core Eurozone the supportive stance toward the dollar under Japans new political climate could strengthen the downward pressure on the EUR/USD exchange rate. #FrenchPMResigns #NewJapanesePM #EURUSD 🔴 New French PM Lecornu has presented his resignation to Macron - BFM TV citing Elysee 🔴 New French PM Lecornu has presented his resignation to Macron - BFM TV citing Elysee"
X Link 2025-10-06T07:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Were kicking off the week with a dynamic global economic political and financial agenda: 📌In Japan the ruling partys new leader Sanae Takaichilikely to be confirmed as Prime Minister on October 15is expected to pursue a conservative pro-Abenomics stance with supportive fiscal policies. 📌In France the sixth prime minister under President Macron has resigned deepening political instability. 📌Bitcoin broke through the $125K level over the weekend and is holding firm around $123K. 📌Gold and silver are surging toward new records with targets of $4000/oz and $50/oz respectively. 📌The U.S."
X Link 2025-10-06T09:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The seasonally adjusted September CPI data jointly prepared by TURKSTAT and the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) appears to ease some of the concerns surrounding the inflation outlook. Recall that the headline monthly figure and the increase in TURKSTATs critical C and D core indicators came above 3%. The recently disclosed seasonally adjusted CPI increase has been more moderate. Annual inflation also showed only a limited uptick. A similar trend is observed in the annualized rate derived from the six-month moving averages. #SeptemberInflation #CBRT #TURKSTAT #SeasonallyAdjustedCPI"
X Link 2025-10-06T13:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Is the recent downward correction in the EUR/USD pair driven by political turmoil in Francemeaning the move is temporaryor is it merely a convenient excuse signaling a more permanent trend shift in the pair Could the end of the U.S. government shutdown lead to a more pronounced strengthening of the dollar U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are at 4.175%; gold and silver after reaching record highs are struggling to establish a clear direction. #EuroDollar #USBondYields #GoldSilver Were kicking off the week with a dynamic global economic political and financial agenda: 📌In Japan the ruling partys"
X Link 2025-10-07T11:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"After a contraction in the first quarter the Turkish industrial sector has entered a growth trajectory starting from the second quarter. Since May it has been performing stronglyclose to its potential growth level. #Industry #Production #Growth In August adjusted data showed a robust annual increase of 7.1%. My initial forecast for September also points to another strong year-on-year rise 📌 This suggests that following the second quarter we can expect solid annual growth in the industry for the third quarter as well. This outlook aligns with my growth forecasts of 3.4% for this year and 3.5%"
X Link 2025-10-09T07:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A new tariff crisis is signaling a shift in market dynamics: 📌 Amid deteriorating global risk appetite there's a renewed push for dollar-denominated assets to reclaim their status as a "safe haven." Following signs of a fresh tariff standoff with China the initial weakening of the dollar appears short-lived. The euro-dollar exchange rate has dipped below [----] again while U.S. Treasury yields are experiencing sharp declines. It seems we'll be increasingly asking the question: "Could we see a stronger dollar in 2026" #RiskAversion #DollarStrength #TariffCrisis"
X Link 2025-10-10T17:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#BofA has downgraded its rating on #Intel from 'Neutral' to 'Underperform'. The rationale behind this change is more significant than the downgrade itself particularly in terms of the broader outlook for #technology stocks and potential implications for the #S&P500 index. Concerns over current valuations being unrealistic and the limited return potential raise critical questions about whether similar assessments might apply to other tech stocks as well. BOFA: INTEL VALUATION OVERSTRETCHED Bank of America downgraded Intel to Underperform saying its rally reflects hopes not fundamentals. The"
X Link 2025-10-13T16:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Gold silver and other precious metals; oil copper and other commodities; Bitcoin Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies; S&P [---] DAX and other equity marketsall are trending downward. As global risk appetite fades the U.S. dollar and Treasury prices are attempting to hold their ground potentially reclaiming their status as safe-haven assets. Could this mark a return to their traditional role as 'safe havens' Perhaps even emerge as a defining theme for [----] #GlobalRiskAppetite #Commodities #Equities #PreciousMetals #Cryptos"
X Link 2025-10-17T15:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Notes on weekly credit deposits and reserves developments: #BRSA #CBRT #CreditDeposits #Reserves 📌 Credit-to-Deposit Ratio: In Turkish lira (TRY) assets the credit-to-deposit ratio has remained above 86% for the past two weeks. 📌 Credit Card Spending: Annual growth in credit card expenditures continues to stay elevated. 📌 FX Deposits of Residents: Foreign exchange deposits held by domestic residentsadjusted for parity effectshave increased over the past two weeks by a total of $4.3 billion with $2.5 billion of that coming from the corporate sector. 📌 CBRT Gross Reserves: The Central Bank"
X Link 2025-09-18T12:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"At his first FOMC meeting Miran emerged as the sole dissenting member advocating for a [--] basis point rate cut. Now considered a leading candidate for the next Fed Chair his debut speech at the New York Economic Club offered a clearer view of how future Fed policies might evolve. Key takeaways from his remarks include: 📌 Miran believes the Feds policy rate should be [---] basis points lower -around 2% instead of the current 4% range. 📌 Maintaining such tight monetary policy risks undermining the Feds employment mandate. 📌 The neutral interest rate-where inflation and employment risks are"
X Link 2025-09-22T17:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Weekly Notes on Credit Deposits and Reserves #Loans #FXDeposits #CBRTReserves 📌 FX-protected deposits (KKM) drop below $8 billion. The share of non-KKM Turkish lira deposits continues to exceed 60%. 📌 FX depositsadjusted for parity effectshave increased for three consecutive weeks totaling $5.5 billion. The bulk of this demand comes from corporates accounting for $3.8 billion. 📌 CBRT gross reserves remain strong: as of September [--] they stood at $178.8 billion. We estimate they reached $183 billion by September [--]. 📌 The TL loan-to-deposit ratio has declined from 86% to 84% yet remains"
X Link 2025-09-25T12:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As of October [--] the CBRTs gross reserves reached a new record level of $186.2 billion 📌 By October [--] I estimate they are approaching the $190 billion threshold. The share of gold in gross reserves has exceeded 53%. Resident foreign exchange deposits (excluding parity effects) showed a modest weekly increase of just $196 million. However theres a divergence between individuals and corporates: individual FX deposits rose by $1.1 billion while corporate deposits declined by $934 million 📌 Following a $3.8 billion increase in the first three weeks of September the subsequent two weeks saw a"
X Link 2025-10-09T12:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"EUR/USD parity stands at [------] while the Dollar Index remains above [--]. 📌'The week's opening themes are shaping up to be early signals of a new phase.' Were kicking off the week with a dynamic global economic political and financial agenda: 📌In Japan the ruling partys new leader Sanae Takaichilikely to be confirmed as Prime Minister on October 15is expected to pursue a conservative pro-Abenomics stance with supportive Were kicking off the week with a dynamic global economic political and financial agenda: 📌In Japan the ruling partys new leader Sanae Takaichilikely to be confirmed as Prime"
X Link 2025-10-09T14:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"While trade war tensions continue to fluctuate global equity markets are increasingly dominated by risk aversion. This decline in global risk appetite is now accompanied by a renewed interest in the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds as safe-haven assetsmarking a shift from the broader trend seen earlier this year. The question of whether this will become a defining theme for [----] may be beginning to find its answer. Silver and cryptocurrencies are experiencing notable pullbacks while gold shows some degree of divergence. However if the dollar continues to strengthen that divergence may narrow."
X Link 2025-10-14T10:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Housing Sales in Turkey Annual growth in housing sales has remained in single digits for the past two months. In September the year-on-year increase was 6.9%. - New home sales saw a modest rise of 5.0% - While second-hand sales grew by 7.8%. #HousingSales"
X Link 2025-10-16T07:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Gold/Silver ratio has surged above [--] after dipping to around [--] earlier this week. The correction in precious metals is as Ive frequently noted more pronounced in silver than in gold. Should the U.S. dollar continue to strengthen this trend could gain further momentum. #Gold #Silver #Dollar"
X Link 2025-10-17T17:13Z [----] followers, 12.5K engagements
"A Critical Week for Gold Following the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings #Gold #IMFWB @robin_j_brooks Weve just wrapped up a pivotal week marked by the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings where global economic projections were reassessed. However the spotlight was more on the potential implications of AI and productivity gains as well as the looming global debt threatkey themes shaping the medium-term outlook of the new world economic order. Among the financial dynamics discussed it wouldnt be wrong to say that the gold rally which global markets have been intensely focused on and trying to"
X Link 2025-10-18T16:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Food Pressure on Inflation Persists; However October Inflation May Stay Below 3% #OctoberInflation #Disinflation Following the September inflation figure which came in significantly above expectations at 3.23% the downward trend in annual inflation has paused leading to increased skepticism about the disinflation process. In this environment we await the new inflation data and the Central Banks interest rate decision. The rise in September inflation was driven by food price increases and both direct and indirect effects of the back-to-school season. Meanwhile some persistent components of the"
X Link 2025-10-20T06:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"My October inflation forecast supports the outlook for strengthening in the banking index (October CPI inflation estimate: 2.75%) #OctoberInflation #BankingIndex #BIST BIST Bank/Industry Ratio currently stands at [----] influenced in part by concerns that U.S. regional banks may pose systemic risks. After approaching [----] in July the ratio has entered a general weakening trend and has now dipped below the [---] threshold as of this week. https://t.co/tI3MaFKLjr BIST Bank/Industry Ratio currently stands at [----] influenced in part by concerns that U.S. regional banks may pose systemic risks. After"
X Link 2025-10-20T06:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The gold/silver ratio is above [--]. The U.S. dollar continues to strengthen and the downward correction trend in precious metals persists. #Gold #Silver #Dollar"
X Link 2025-10-21T13:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains in a downward trend staying below 4%. Softer signals from Fridays upcoming inflation data could reinforce this trajectory. Can the dollar and dollar-denominated bonds reclaim their status as safe-haven assets #USBonds #Dollar #USInflation"
X Link 2025-10-21T13:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The strengthening downward correction in precious metalsespecially gold and silverhas been accompanied by a modest appreciation in the U.S. dollar and a decline in Treasury yields along with a flattening of the yield curve. This combination may signal a reallocation within portfolios between traditional and emerging safe-haven assets. Ahead of the critical BoJ and Fed meetings the rise in Japanese bond yields and the appreciation of the yen can also be seen as part of a broader reassessment of global risk appetite and market dynamics📌 A Critical Week for Gold Following the IMF/World Bank"
X Link 2025-10-21T14:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BIST Bank/Industry ratio is [---]. #BIST #BankingIndex #BanktoIndustryRatio BIST Bank/Industry ratio is above [--]. #BIST #BankingIndex #BanktoIndustryRatio BIST Bank/Industry ratio is above [--]. #BIST #BankingIndex #BanktoIndustryRatio"
X Link 2025-10-21T14:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"October [--] Interest Rate Decision and Policy Note Expectations #CBRT #InterestRateDecision #OctoberInflation As I shared earlier this week supported by the anticipated improvement in the monthly inflation trend for October I expect the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) to lower the policy rate by [---] basis points to 39% at its October [--] meeting. This would continue the rate-cutting cyclealbeit at a slower pacefollowing the [---] basis point cut in July and the [---] basis point cut in September. I also forecast that the asymmetric interest rate corridor will be adjusted to 42-37.5% with its"
X Link 2025-10-22T06:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As gold and silver continue their downward correction the Gold/Silver ratio appears to be encountering resistance at the [--] level a zone that previously acted as strong support during the precious metals rally. #GoldSilverRatio #PreciousMetals #StrongDollar"
X Link 2025-10-22T12:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This weeks sharp declines in gold and silver raise two competing interpretations: [--]. The consensus view sees the correction as a natural pullback following a parabolic rally in precious metals. From this perspective the downturn is temporary and the market may soon revert to the debasement tradea renewed flight from fiat currencies amid concerns over their eroding credibility and purchasing power. [--]. Alternatively the correction could mark a deeper shift. Given the evolving geopolitical and economic landscapecharacterized by a new global order and improved visibility into policy trajectories"
X Link 2025-10-22T13:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As the momentum behind the debasement trade the flight from fiat currenciescontinues to fade the crypto market is also experiencing a sustained corrective phase mirroring the trend seen in precious metals. Notably the Bitcoin/Ethereum ratio is showing a clear upward bias indicating Bitcoin's relative strength over Ethereum in the current environment. #Bitcoin #Ethereum #CryptoCorrection #DebasementTrade"
X Link 2025-10-22T15:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"We shouldnt expect an Abenomics-style approach from the new Prime Ministers economic package❣ Rather than broad-based spending to support the entire economyalready squeezed between inflation and a heavy debt burdenthe focus is likely to shift toward strategic sectors such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors with investment aimed at supoorting growth sectors while helping to bring inflation down📌 If Japan were to pursue populist fiscal and/or monetary expansion it could trigger financial instabilitysuch as a sharp depreciation in the yen or a rapid rise in long-term interest"
X Link 2025-10-22T18:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Heightened Sensitivity to Inflation Risks Amid Continued Rate Cuts #CBRT #RateCut #InflationRisks After cutting the policy rate by [---] basis points in July and [---] basis points in September the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) reduced the rate by [---] basis points in todays meetingslightly below expectations. This brings the one-week repo auction rate down to 39.5%. The interest rate corridor was also adjusted to 42.538% maintaining its asymmetric structure. In the details of the rate decision note we observe a more cautious tone regarding the inflation outlook while the general stance on"
X Link 2025-10-23T11:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"CBRT Reserves Reach $198.4 Billion as of October [--] But Gold Price Correction Begins to Weigh The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) reserves reached $198.4 billion on October [--]. However the sharp recent correction in gold prices is expected to reflect in this week's figures. In the first three days of the week reserves are calculated to decline by $9.5 billion. #CBRT #Reserves #Gold"
X Link 2025-10-23T12:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Japans Prime Minister adopts an economically responsive approach embracing a responsible proactive fiscal policy aiming to implement a strategy that is both cautious and effective. The framework of this approach is outlined as follows: 📌 The principle of economy first then fiscal policy will be adopted; 📌 Fiscal sustainability will be ensured and market confidence maintained by reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio; 📌 Economic measures will be swiftly compiled and a supplementary budget will be submitted to parliament. #Takaichi #Japan We shouldnt expect an Abenomics-style approach from the new"
X Link 2025-10-24T05:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Turkeys 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) have once again dropped below [---] basis points. #Turkey #5YCDS"
X Link 2025-10-24T08:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The downward trend in U.S. bond yields continues accompanied by a flattening yield curve. The 10-year Treasury yield is below 3.98% while the 10Y-2Y yield spread stands at [--] basis points. #USTreasuries #YieldCurve"
X Link 2025-10-28T06:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Following Chair Powells guidance that prompted markets to question expectations for a December rate cut gold has retreated below $4000 per ounce and the eurodollar exchange rate has fallen below [----]. #Powell #Gold #EURUSD"
X Link 2025-10-29T19:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Following the Feds hawkish stance the yield curve has flattened with the spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields at [----] percentage points. #Fed #Powell #YieldCurve"
X Link 2025-10-29T19:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Following the sharp rise in September inflation inflation expectations increased by [---] and [---] percentage points among the financial sector and households respectively. In contrast the real sector maintained its downward trend in inflation forecasts. The weakness in economic activity appears to be a key factor influencing the real sectors projections. #SectoralInflationExpectations #CBRT"
X Link 2025-10-30T07:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The U.S. dollar continues to strengthen following remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Despite a recent rate cut to the 3.75%4.00% range Powell signaled that a further cut in December is far from guaranteed which boosted market confidence in the dollar. DXY surged toward the key [---] threshold. #Fed #Powell #DXY"
X Link 2025-10-30T13:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Ahead of Mondays October inflation data the summary of last weeks CBRT Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting offers key signals: #CBRT #MPC #OctoberInflation 📌 The negative trend in food inflation continues albeit at a slower paceaffecting both processed and unprocessed categories. In my October [--] inflation forecast note I projected food inflation at 3.85% lower than Septembers 4.65% yet still reflecting underlying pressure. Todays Turk-Is data showing a 1.58% increase paints an overly optimistic picturedriven by sharp declines in fruit prices and drops in poultry and fish. A similar"
X Link 2025-10-31T13:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO) October inflation data increases the likelihood that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be announced on Monday will come in below 3%. Historically October CPI figures tend to be [---] to [--] percentage point lower than ITOs. However caution is warranted as in the past two months the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) figures have exceeded ITOs. Details from the ITO data: - Food inflation continues to exert upward pressure. - Seasonal increases in clothing prices are lower than last year. - Among sticky inflation components rents show a moderate trend while"
X Link 2025-11-01T10:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"There are positive developments in the October inflation data in terms of easing rigidities and the underlying trend of inflation. Headline inflation came in at 2.55% (my forecast was 2.75%) and C-core inflation was 2.41% (my forecast was 2.45%). To quickly summarize the details: 📌 Food inflation continues to exert pressure as expected; it's lower than the previous month but still above 3%. The slowdown in processed food is encouraging. 📌 Clothing inflation accelerated as anticipated reaching 12.42%. However it's still below last year's level. From November onward price declines are"
X Link 2025-11-03T07:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The BIST Banks/Industrials ratio stands at [----]. Positive signals from inflation data support the continued strengthening of the banking index. #BIST #BankingIndex #Inflation October CPI inflation: 2.55%. #CPI #Turkstat October CPI inflation: 2.55%. #CPI #Turkstat"
X Link 2025-11-03T08:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Bitcoin / Ethereum is nearing [--] again. #Bitcoin #Ethereum"
X Link 2025-11-03T16:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Following the surge in usage of the Federal Reserve's repo facility on October [--] and November [--] today's sharp drop to $2.8 billion reflects a normalization in liquidity conditions. Repo funding had reached $50.35 billion on October [--] and $22 billion on November [--] indicating significant short-term funding pressures at month-end. #FedRepo #LiquidityCrisisRisk"
X Link 2025-11-04T18:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"After briefly climbing above $100K Bitcoin has once again dipped below that threshold marking a retreat from its June highs. Throughout [----] precious metals and the crypto market emerged as safe-haven assets under the "Debasement Trade" narrative driven by the rapid depreciation of the U.S. dollar. However as the dollar regains strength toward year-end these assets are facing renewed losses casting doubt on their defensive appeal. This dynamic may remain a central theme heading into [----]. #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Gold #Silver #Dollar #DebasementTrade"
X Link 2025-11-04T18:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"In [----] its fair to say that even among safe-haven assets there are sub-safe havens. As the U.S. dollar regains strength the impact on traditional and digital safe-haven assets is diverging. Gold is holding up better than silver while Bitcoin is showing more resilience compared to Ethereum. This is reflected in the current ratios: the Gold/Silver ratio stands at [----] and the Bitcoin/Ethereum ratio is at [----]. #Dollar #PreciousMetals #Cryptos"
X Link 2025-11-04T20:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The construction of a new world order continues to unfold: Zohran Mamdani a 34-year-old democratic socialist has been elected as the 111th mayor of New York City. For the first time the cityoften seen as the capital of capitalismwill be governed by a Muslim South Asian and the youngest mayor in over a century under a platform rooted in socialist policies. In his first remarks Mamdani emphasized that New York will continue to grow and thrive as a city of immigrants a statement that carries significant weight as the [----] midterm elections approach. His victory marks a turning point with"
X Link 2025-11-05T06:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Can We Say that Portfolio Allocations were Reassessed Before 2026❓ Following the easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China China resumed issuing dollar-denominated bonds. Notably the interest rate matched U.S. Treasury yields for the first time. The high demand for the issuance appears to stem from investors need to diversify their portfolios and the limited size of the offering. #ChinaUSDIssuance #TradeWars China borrows as cheaply as US in dollar bond market for first time https://t.co/jurPUBuOdV China borrows as cheaply as US in dollar bond market for first time"
X Link 2025-11-06T06:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Recent Developments in FX Deposits from the CBRT Perspective #CBRT #FXDeposits #KKM The recent rise in foreign exchange (FX) deposits is attributed to three key factors: the termination of FX-protected deposit accounts (KKM) the surge in gold prices and the strengthening of the euro against the U.S. dollar 📌 While the conversion rate from KKM to FX deposits hovered around 25% between March and August it surged above 80% in September and October ❗ However there is no indication of a concerning shift toward FX. The increase in FX deposits is largely nominal driven by exchange rate and price"
X Link 2025-11-06T07:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Weekly Developments in Reserves FX Deposits and Credit/Deposit Trends #CBRT #BRSA #Reserves #CreditDeposit #FXDeposits 📌 The Central Bank of the Republic of Trkiye (CBRT) recorded a $14.8 billion decline in gross FX reserves during the last two weeks of October ending the month at $183.6 billion. The first week of November has been relatively calm with a $0.4 billion increase calculated over the first three days. 📌 Excluding exchange rate effects residents FX deposits rose by $8.1 billion between end-August and mid-October but showed a modest $0.5 billion decline in the final two weeks of"
X Link 2025-11-06T12:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Is Steepening Again #Tariffs #USTreasuries #YieldCurve The slope of the U.S. Treasury yield curve is once again shifting toward steepening with the 10-year minus 2-year yield spread currently at [--] basis points. Uncertainty surrounding the validity of existing tariffsand the possibility of their repealraises concerns about increased Treasury borrowing needs. This in turn is exerting upward pressure on bond yields and the overall shape of the yield curve"
X Link 2025-11-06T13:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"No Change in [--------] Inflation Interim Targets and Forecasts (Not a Surprise) #CBRT #InflationReport In the Central Bank of Trkiyes (CBRT) final-quarter Inflation Report the Bank maintained its strategyintroduced in the previous meetingof preserving interim targets without revision. Accordingly the targets for [--------] remain at 24% 16% and 9% respectively. The more anticipated question was whether the CBRT would revise its inflation forecasts for [--------]. Given that these periods have not yet begun and considering the recent signs of disruption in the expectations channel my main"
X Link 2025-11-07T08:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The U.S. economy continues to exhibit a fragile and uncertain outlook characterized by moderate activity hovering near threshold levels and persistently high inflation. #MichiganSentiment #USInflation US Univ. Of Michigan Sentiment Nov P: [----] (est 53.0; prev 53.6) - Current Conditions: [----] (est 59.0; prev 58.6) - Expectations: [----] (est 50.0; prev 50.3) - 1-Year Inflation: 4.7% (est 4.6%; prev 4.6%) - 5-10-Year Inflation: 3.6% (est 3.8%; prev 3.9%) US Univ. Of Michigan Sentiment Nov P: [----] (est 53.0; prev 53.6) - Current Conditions: [----] (est 59.0; prev 58.6) - Expectations: [----] (est"
X Link 2025-11-07T15:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Central Bank of Trkiye (CBRT) has reiterated its commitment to maintaining a tight monetary policy stance and its sensitivity to the disinflation process. - Globally despite a slowdown in disinflation momentum interest rate cuts continue. - Domestically although demand conditions are aligned with disinflationary levels the pace of disinflation has decelerated over the past two months. ❣Nevertheless the CBRT emphasizes its determination to sustain the downward trend in core inflation through tight policy. Is this shaping up to resemble the Feds guidance ahead of its December meeting❣"
X Link 2025-11-09T08:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As the U.S. government shutdown enters its 41st day expectations are rising that a decision to reopen may come soon. Meanwhile there is growing curiosity about how much support the Federal Reserve might receive from economic data ahead of its December [--] interest rate meeting. Even if the government reopens shortly it will take some time to release the backlog of data. Regarding the employment and inflation figures that are critical for the rate decision the September employment report is expected to be released soon. However it appears highly unlikely that the October employment and"
X Link 2025-11-10T15:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Weak demand for long-term bond issuance in Japan has reignited upward pressure on yields. The 10-year JGB yield is once again testing the 1.70% level while USD/JPY remains above [---]. #Japan #BondYields #JapaneseYen"
X Link 2025-11-11T07:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Gold and Silver are struggling to hold above key levels$4100 for Gold and $50 for Silver per ounce. A similar pattern is unfolding in the crypto market where Bitcoin remains below $105000 and Ethereum under $3500. The direction the EUR/USD pair takes around the [----] level will likely have ripple effects across both precious metals and the crypto space. #Gold #Silver #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Dollar"
X Link 2025-11-11T15:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"In September a current account surplus of $1.11 billion was recorded (my estimate was $1.07 billion). Over the past three months a total surplus of $8.3 billion has been achieved. The trend of a limited surplus may continue into October as well. The 12-month current account surplus stands at $20.1 billion. We may end the year with a surplus of around $22.5 billion. #CBRT #BalanceOfPayments #CurrentAccountSurplus"
X Link 2025-11-12T07:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"We are approaching the end of the seasonal surplus period in the current account #CBRT #BalanceofPayments #CurrentAccount #FXReserves Although the current account posted a surplus in the third quarter of the year benefiting from seasonal factors the expansion in the annual current account deficit continues moderately. The burden from energy and gold imports is evident. The annual current account balance excluding gold and energy shows a surplus of $46.6 billion. However compared to the $54.2 billion surplus recorded at the end of November last year there is a slight deterioration. A closer"
X Link 2025-11-12T08:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A divergence is emerging between precious metals and cryptocurrency markets: While gold and silver prices maintain a recovery trend Bitcoin and Ethereum remain on a downward path. The U.S. Dollar Index meanwhile hovers around the [---] threshold with continued directional uncertainty. #GoldSilver #BitcoinEthereum #DXY"
X Link 2025-11-12T16:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Following a two-week decline the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) gross reserves increased by $1.4 billion in the week of November [--]. In the first three days of this week foreign reserves have shown significant movements. After a $4.6 billion rise in the first two days the third day saw a $5.2 billion decrease. #CBRT #Reserves"
X Link 2025-11-13T13:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Turkish Lira-denominated loan-to-deposit ratio surged to 89% in the first week of November. However following the first week of the month we may observe a decline toward the 8688% range in line with the broader trend. #BRSA #LoansDeposits"
X Link 2025-11-13T13:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The data vacuum continues ahead of the Feds December rate decision. The government shutdown is estimated to reduce fourth-quarter growth by [---] percentage points. Accurately analyzing the temporary effects of the shutdown and subsequent reopening on the data along with the possibility of another shutdown being considered in the first month of next year will pose a challenge for short-term policy decisions. #Fed #RateCut #Employment #ShutdownReopening HASSETT: WILL GET JOBS PART NOT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR ONE MONTH BECAUSE OF SHUTDOWN HASSETT: WILL GET JOBS PART NOT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR ONE"
X Link 2025-11-13T15:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Following the (temporary) reopening of the U.S. government markets are broadly lower across the board equities bonds and cryptocurrencies are down while precious metals are also under pressure amid diverging trends. #SP500 #Crypto #PreciousMetals #USTreasuries"
X Link 2025-11-13T16:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Nasdaq Composite fell over 2% driven by growing skepticism around artificial intelligence valuations. According to a recent analysis JPMorgan estimates that to achieve a 10% return on AI investments companies would need to generate $650 billion in annual revenue a figure that has sparked debate over the sustainability of current market expectations. #Nasdaq #AIBubble #TechStocks #JPMorgan"
X Link 2025-11-13T18:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Sharp Declines in 2025s Safe Havens #SafeHavens #Nasdaq #DXY This year the U.S. dollar has weakened beyond expectations and its global dominance is being seriously questioned. In response two key safe havens precious metals and cryptocurrencies rallied significantly. However the sharp declines were seeing today clearly indicate that the correction phase observed over the past month is not yet over. This comes right after the U.S. government decided to reopen with discussions set to resume in January❗ While JPMorgans recent analysis suggesting that AI investments would require $650 billion in"
X Link 2025-11-13T19:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Nasdaq and Nvidia Extend Losses in Futures Trading #Nasdaq #Nvidia Following yesterdays decline in the Nasdaq index futures are down nearly 1.5% today signaling continued pressure in tech-heavy equities. Nvidia shares which dropped 3.6% yesterday are seeing further losses exceeding 3% in todays futures reflecting heightened volatility in the semiconductor sector"
X Link 2025-11-14T12:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Ahead of rising global tensions the Federal Reserve's repo funding remained calm between November [---] but then surged to $6.05 billion on November [--] and $3.9 billion on November [--] indicating renewed liquidity demand in short-term funding markets. #Fed #Repo"
X Link 2025-11-14T15:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"BIST Bank/Industry Ratio Holds Steady Near [----] #BIST #BankIndustry The BIST bank/industry ratio has recently stabilized around the [----] level compared to its year-to-date average of [----]. If positive expectations for November inflation continue to strengthen this average level could become a realistic target. However without new catalysts in the medium term further upside appears limited for now"
X Link 2025-11-14T15:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@NickTimiraos But is historical experience a reliable indicator of todays tariff scope and scale"
X Link 2025-11-15T07:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Taking a closer look. #SFFed #TariffEffects #Inflation A striking new study from the San Francisco Fed examines the potential effects of tariffs. Drawing on [---] years of U.S. tariff policyincluding pivotal periods like the first wave of globalization (18701913) and the interwar yearsthe study highlights fluctuations in scope and speed that resemble those seen in [----]. The most provocativeand perhaps most counterintuitivefinding concerns the economic impact of tariff hikes. Contrary to the prevailing view that tariffs raise costs and push inflation higher the study suggests that in the short"
X Link 2025-11-15T08:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The VIX volatility index has hovered between [----] over the past two months frequently testing the upper bound. Last Friday it closed just below [--]. In the face of rising global market tensionsranging from liquidity concerns the AI bubble corporate valuations and the Feds December decisiona series of critical uncertainties are emerging. 📍However the current posture projected by the Fed deserves special attention. Its worth remembering that the journey from a zero-interest environment to levels above 5% was navigated with remarkable harmony within the Fed and effective guidance that brought"
X Link 2025-11-16T07:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#Bitcoin and #Ethereum are signaling that market tension may carry into the new week. Bitcoin is slightly above $94K while Ethereum drops below $3.1K"
X Link 2025-11-16T16:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"10-year Japanese government bond yields are hovering above 1.70% potentially adding pressure to global market tensions. After a rapid balance sheet reduction the Bank of Japan has kept its holdings just below [---] trillion for the past month. So far the BoJ has refrained from significant rate hikes but this shift in quantitative tightening may signal that the time for raising interest rates is approaching. #JapanBonds #BoJBalanceSheet"
X Link 2025-11-17T06:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The annual budget deficit continues to rise; however its ratio to GDP declined to 3.7% as of the end of October down from 4.8% at the end of Q1. The current outlook aligns with my forecasts of a 3.8% deficit by year-end and 3.6% by the end of [----]. #BudgetDeficit #EconomicProgram"
X Link 2025-11-17T14:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Global markets are entering [----] amid a surge in AI-driven investment and recent developmentshighlighted in a Wall Street Journal articlesuggest this year could serve as a critical test of both thematic conviction and risk appetite. #AIBubble #GlobalRisks #GlobalRiskAppetite https://www.linkedin.com/posts/banu-k%C4%B1vc%C4%B1-tokal%C4%B1-75a41817_global-markets-are-entering-2026-amid-a-surge-activity-7396469964896878592-zI9lutm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAANxazYBOjxtgJ5FYJjrZZsniJXxO30YaQo"
X Link 2025-11-18T08:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The VIX index is hovering around the [--] thresholda level it previously retreated from on October [--]. This weeks nonfarm payrolls report followed by next weeks inflation data will be pivotal in shaping market volatility. The degree to which Federal Reserve officials diverge in interpreting these figures will likely influence expectations for the December policy decision and set the tone for risk sentiment. #VIX #USJobsReport #USInflation #FederalReserve The VIX volatility index has hovered between [----] over the past two months frequently testing the upper bound. Last Friday it closed just"
X Link 2025-11-18T15:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Central Bank of Turkeys (CBRT) external assets have shown sharp daily fluctuations over the past week. On November [--] and [--] external assets increased by more than $2 billion per day. However this was followed by a sharp $5.2 billion drop on November [--] and then a $4.6 billion rebound the next day. On November [--] and [--] the data pointed to a combined decline of around $6 billion. In the weekly data to be released on Thursday however gross reserves as of November [--] are expected to show a weekly increase of approximately $2.8 billioncompared to a $1.4 billion rise recorded in the week"
X Link 2025-11-18T16:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"DXY is hovering near the [---] threshold and the USD/JPY pair remains in sharp focus as markets digest the dollars strength. The yen continues to weaken rapidly with the pair now trading around [-----]. If the government maintains a persistent and broad stimulus approach it could signal a challenging phase for the BoJ caught between high interest rates and a weakening yen. #DXY #BoJ #JapaneseYen #BondYields"
X Link 2025-11-19T15:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As global market fragility persists here are the key takeaways from the Feds October meeting minutes ahead of the critical December decision: A majority of members 📌 believes keeping rates unchanged in December would be appropriate. 📌 further rate cuts could heighten inflation risks. 📌 the soft landing scenario still appears valid for the labor market. This context also sheds light on why President Trump criticized the Fed just before the minutes were released. On the other side there are also members within the committee who hold the opposite view. In short the internal divergence within"
X Link 2025-11-19T19:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"September data supports the Feds soft landing scenario for the labor market as outlined in the latest meeting minutes📍 However we shouldnt overlook the downward revision to August figures📍 Over the past five months the average monthly job growth stands at just 39K. The outlook for the coming period remains uncertain making it far too early to claim a shift in the broader weak labor market narrative📍 Next weeks PCE inflation data has gained even more significance for the Fed📍 While the Feds prevailing stance leans toward holding rates steady in December I dont believe the rate cut option"
X Link 2025-11-20T13:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Following the announcement of a fiscal stimulus package in Japan that slightly exceeded expectations pressure on the yen and interest rates appears to have easedsupported in part by intervention rhetoric. However considering Japan's current debt burden and inflation dynamics it seems unlikely that both an expansionary monetary policy and an expansionary fiscal policy can be pursued simultaneously. For now the yen and interest rates are pricing in the possibility that such a dual approach might be feasible❗ Japans Takaichi unveils $135bn stimulus to spur growth https://t.co/0haRuBzrA6 Japans"
X Link 2025-11-21T11:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Did Bitcoin bottom out last Friday after testing the $80K level It's now up 8% from that dip. #Bitcoin #GlobalTensions"
X Link 2025-11-23T16:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The BIST Bank/Industry ratio reached [----] today aligning with its year-to-date average of [----]. To sustain further gains and support a more optimistic outlook into [----] the market will need clearer signals pointing toward long-term strength. #BIST #BanktoIndustryRatio BIST Bank/Industry Ratio Holds Steady Near [----] #BIST #BankIndustry The BIST bank/industry ratio has recently stabilized around the [----] level compared to its year-to-date average of [----]. If positive expectations for November inflation continue to strengthen this average https://t.co/zlMGWDcfm6 BIST Bank/Industry Ratio Holds"
X Link 2025-11-24T17:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A potential positive catalyst for Turkeys disinflation path in 2026: the global oil market is expected to remain in surplus. Production cuts are likely to continue next year to stabilize prices. JPMorgan forecasts that without these cuts oil prices could drop to the $30 range. #Oil #JPM #Disinflation #TurkeyEconomy JPMORGAN WARNS OF OIL GLUT BY [----] JPMorgan says a global oil surplus could push Brent into the $30s by late [----] if supply isnt cut. Demand is rising but supply is growing three times faster mainly from non-OPEC+ producers. A [---] million bpd surplus in [----] could drag JPMORGAN"
X Link 2025-11-24T18:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Japan's 10-year government bond yields have once again climbed above 1.80%. With the Bank of Japan's December [----] meeting approaching pressure on the bond market appears likely to persist. #JapanBondYields #BoJ"
X Link 2025-11-25T06:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Looking at the CBRTs (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey) Sectoral Inflation Expectations for November we observe a decline in 12-month inflation forecasts by both the real sector and households following the lower-than-expected October inflation. Market participantswho project lower inflation than these two groups however have slightly revised their expectations upward. 📍It seems that the focus is gradually shifting toward the [----] inflation outlook with market participants increasingly viewing the Medium-Term Program (MTP) target as overly optimistic📍 The slowdown in the disinflation"
X Link 2025-11-25T07:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Brookings Institution has published striking findings from a nationwide survey on AI usage: Artificial intelligence is used more heavily on a personal level with a rate of 57% while professional use remains at just 21%. Three key findings stand out from the study: - Professional AI usage correlates with company size. - While personal AI use is prominent there is considerable skepticism about whether AI can truly bring transformation and benefits in professional settings. - There are clear demographic differences in AI usage: usage rates are higher among highly educated groups while"
X Link 2025-11-26T06:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Markets for now appear to place their trust in Prime Minister Takaichis remarks on fiscal sustainability and currency stability. The USD/JPY remains in the [---] range while 10-year and 30-year Japanese government bond yields stay below 1.80% and 1.32% respectively. #Takaichi #JapaneseYen #BondYields Japan ready to take 'necessary' action on forex PM Takaichi says https://t.co/2AnQes1kWM Japan ready to take 'necessary' action on forex PM Takaichi says https://t.co/2AnQes1kWM"
X Link 2025-11-26T08:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"From CBRT Governor Fatih Karahans live broadcast: 📍Following October inflation coming in better than expected and optimistic signals from November data the emphasis on preserving expectations stands out. It appears that in determining the scale of the interest rate decision the evolution of expectations will be weighed just as heavily as actual inflation outcomes. #CBRT #InflationExpectations #InterestRateDecision"
X Link 2025-11-26T18:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"From CBRT Governor Fatih Karahans live broadcast: 📍In the event of continued interest rate cuts a comfortable stance is being maintained about Turkish lira assets. As long as a cautious approach is preserved in cutting rates no significant adverse pressure is anticipated. #CBRT #TRYAssets #CautiousRateCuts https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1993757674568052958 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1993757674568052958"
X Link 2025-11-26T19:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Should AI and Fed rate expectations really be viewed as opposing forces Should the productivity gains driven by artificial intelligence be considered solely in terms of growth or are their potential disinflationary effects on prices also being factored in [----] is shaping up to be a year where many macroeconomic scenarios could be rewritten❗ #AI #FedRates AI SPENDING MAY LIMIT FED RATE CUTS IN [----] AI-driven growth could keep the U.S. economy strong enough to temper expected Fed rate cuts next year. While markets price in up to three cuts Mackenzies Dustin Reid says faster growth from AI may"
X Link 2025-11-27T07:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Weekly Update on Reserves Loans/Deposits and FX Developments #BDDK #CBRT #LoansDeposits #Reserves #FXDeposits 📌 CBRT gross reserves declined by $6.8 billion in the week ending November [--] with decreases observed in both foreign exchange and gold reserves. However during the first three days of the current week there has been a cumulative increase of approximately $3.4 billion. 📌 Domestic residents demand for FX deposits has remained extremely limited since the second half of last month. Excluding exchange rate effects FX deposits have decreased by $603 million compared to October [--]. In the"
X Link 2025-11-27T11:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Temporary Tariff Relief Boosts the Yuan Temporary compromises and deferrals in tariffs appear to have most benefited the Chinese yuan. The USD/CNY exchange rate has slipped below the [----] level. While the yuans appreciation aligns with Chinas new growth model questions remain about how long Chinese authorities will tolerate this strengtheningespecially as global supply chains undergo significant restructuring. #USDCNY #Tariffs #ChinaGrowth https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1994308246157320527 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1994308246157320527"
X Link 2025-11-28T07:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Fed repo usage approached $50 billion in the last three business days of the month with $24.4 billion recorded on Friday alone. After reaching $50 billion on the final day of last month and $22 billion on the first day of this month banks demand for liquidity through this channel had sharply declined. As of December 1st the Feds balance sheet reduction will officially come to a halt. How banks liquidity demand through the repo facility evolves will be closely monitored by market participants📍 #FedRepo #FedBalanceSheet"
X Link 2025-11-29T13:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO) November Data: 1.19% In November the official TURKSTAT inflation figure tends to come in about half a point below ITOs reading❗ In October it was [---] points lower as well. We can say that downside risks for the November CPI which will be announced on Wednesday have increased❣ My November CPI forecast: 0.91% 📍 #ITO #NovemberCPI"
X Link 2025-12-01T09:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Theres been no significant shift in Euro area inflation trends. While headline annual inflation isnt far off target the stickiness of core inflation at 2.4% in recent months is noteworthy The ECB seems likely to remain in 'wait-and-see' mode for a while longer. #EurozoneInflation #ECB #RateDecision"
X Link 2025-12-02T10:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Our countrys risk premium remains at a significant level. A continued decline toward and beyond [----] levels will be possible with sustained disinflation and a stable growth outlook. This could also accelerate the process of credit rating upgrades. However the first signs of this may not emerge until early [----]. #CDS #Disinflation #CreditRatingUpgrade"
X Link 2025-12-02T11:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Could the Turkey banking index's rallyfueled by increasingly optimistic expectations around November inflationbe running out of steam for now The BIST Bank/Industry ratio which approached [----] yesterday has slipped below 17% today. Further strength may depend on fresh signals pointing to a disinflation trend extending into 2026📍 #BankVsIndustry #Disinflation"
X Link 2025-12-02T11:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Lets see which of the so-called debasement trade assetsthose chosen to hedge against the erosion of trust in fiat currencieswill manage to retain their appeal in 2026❓ Precious metals and crypto markets after hitting historic highs are now struggling to find new equilibrium amid heightened volatility #GoldSilver #BitcoinEthereum #DebasementTrade"
X Link 2025-12-02T16:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Fed repo usage continues into the second day of the monthalbeit at a slower pacealready exceeding $9 billion. Notably this coincides with the Feds official halt to balance sheet reduction as of December [--]. It seems markets are not entirely at ease ahead of the December [---] FOMC rate decision. #FedRepo #FOMCDecision"
X Link 2025-12-02T16:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"In Japan stress is mounting ahead of the BoJ meeting as the country's heavy debt burden weighs on markets. Facing a dilemma between further currency devaluation or allowing interest rates to rise Japan appears to be leaning toward the latter. Yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds are hovering near 1.90% and 3.43% respectively. #JapanBondYields #BoJ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1996096951968837993 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1996096951968837993"
X Link 2025-12-03T05:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Diverging Trends in Japanese Bond Yields A Lasting Shift❓ Upward pressure on Japans 10-year government bond yields persists pushing them above 1.93% while 30-year yields have retreated to around 3.39% supported by a successful auction. Market stress in the bond space is expected to continue leading up to the Bank of Japans policy meeting on December [----]. #JapanBondYields #BoJ"
X Link 2025-12-04T05:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A Critical Rate Decision Amid Diverging Expectations - Despite Disinflation Support❗ #DecemberMPC #CBRTInterestRateDecision #Disinflation The Central Bank of Turkeys December meeting could mark the beginning of a new phase in the interaction between the policy rate and market interest rates📍 https://www.linkedin.com/posts/banu-k%C4%B1vc%C4%B1-tokal%C4%B1-75a41817_the-central-bank-of-turkeys-december-meeting-ugcPost-7402230846956490752-dUFRutm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAANxazYBOjxtgJ5FYJjrZZsniJXxO30YaQo"
X Link 2025-12-04T06:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Weekly Update on Reserves Loans/Deposits and FX Trends #BRSA #CBRT #LoanDepositRatio #Reserves #FXDeposits 📍The CBRTs gross reserves rose by $2.6 billion in the week ending November [--] following a $6.8 billion decline the previous week. While foreign exchange assets showed an increase gold reserves continued to decline. In the first three days of this week reserves rose by approximately $4.1 billion. 📍The Treasurys TRY deposits increased from TRY [---] billion on November [--] to TRY [---] billion as of December [--] in line with the typical end-of-month/start-of-month pattern. 📍Domestic residents"
X Link 2025-12-04T11:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Could Reshape Labor Market Expectations Weekly jobless claims have fallen below the critical 200K threshold signaling continued strength in the labor market. If the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) resumes its move toward the [---] level the downward pressure on silver prices could intensify #USJoblessClaims #DXY #Silver"
X Link 2025-12-04T13:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Stablecoins despite their uncertainties are now part of our lives #Stablecoin #IMF #GlobalPaymentSystems #Cryptocurrencies Stablecoins which are designed to avoid the sharp price fluctuations commonly seen in crypto assets have become an integral part of our financial landscape. On one hand their centralized structure and backing by traditional liquid financial assetssuch as cash or government bondsgive them the potential to make international payments faster and more cost-effective. On the other hand they come with a range of risks particularly the financial vulnerabilities that could arise"
X Link 2025-12-05T06:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The divergence between Japans 10-year and 30-year government bond yields continues. While the 30-year yield has declined to 3.35% the 10-year yield maintains its upward trajectory reaching 1.95%. 📍Ahead of the Bank of Japans December [----] meeting the 10-year bond marketpreviously suppressed by BoJs bond purchasesappears to be adjusting slightly toward correcting the imbalance between debt burden and interest rate levels especially in comparison with other countries. #JapanBondYields #BoJ Diverging Trends in Japanese Bond Yields A Lasting Shift❓ Upward pressure on Japans 10-year government"
X Link 2025-12-05T06:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"There are signs of improvement in both short- and long-term U.S. inflation expectations. 📌The 1-year ahead inflation expectation has eased from 4.5% to 4.1% while the [---] year forecast has declined from 3.4% to 3.2%. However it's important to note that these levels still remain significantly above the Feds 2% target❗ Considering the latest PCE data a [--] basis point rate cut by the Fed next week seems almost certain. That said its still too early to draw a clear roadmap for 2026❗ #PCE #Michigan #Fed US Univ. Of Michigan Sentiment Dec P: [----] (est 52.0; prev 51.0) - Current Conditions: 50.7"
X Link 2025-12-05T15:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Japan's bond yields continue their search for a peak. The 10-year yield is hovering near the 1.98% threshold while the 30-year yield has climbed above 3.40% showing a tendency to revisit its previous highs. This trend is expected to persist at least until the Bank of Japans policy meeting on December [----]. #JapanBonds #BoJ #Takaichi"
X Link 2025-12-08T08:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Ahead of the Fed meeting not only are bond yields broadly rising but the steepening of the yield curve is also drawing attention. The 10Y2Y yield spread currently stands at [----]. #FOMC #USTreasuries"
X Link 2025-12-08T15:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The power struggle between Bitcoin and Ethereum has shifted focus today to the balance sheet contrast between MicroStrategythe largest institutional holder of Bitcoinand BitMine which holds an Ethereum treasury. While MicroStrategys balance sheet presents a more complex picture the potential removal of its stock from the MSCI index emerges as a key underlying trigger. Meanwhile the Bitcoin/Ethereum ratio has slipped below [--] down from the 30s. #BitcoinEthereum #MicroStrategy #BitMine"
X Link 2025-12-09T18:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Despite the shock of the trade war the Chinese economy appears on track to meet its 5% growth target for this yearalbeit with certain costs such as declining profit margins on the corporate side. Looking ahead to [----] a growth forecast of 4.5% suggests a degree of continued optimism. It seems that factors such as the economys ability to create new markets and its performance in advancing artificial intelligence are expected to offset the negative impact of tariff tensions with the United States. #ChinaGrowth #TariffWars The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday raised its forecast"
X Link 2025-12-10T09:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A 'hawkish' rate cut from the Fed The projections for rate cuts in [----] and [----] remain limited to just one. In the macro forecasts growth expectations have been revised upward unemployment projections stayed largely unchanged and inflation estimates were moderately lowered. (Entirely in line with my expectations❗) #Fed #Projections"
X Link 2025-12-10T19:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The three members who appeared in favor of a rate hike are in fact the same members opposing cuts in this meeting. In other words they voted for maintaining the premeeting level of rates through the end of [----]. Fed members continue to show a dispersed outlook for [----] rate projections though the balance between those expecting cuts and hikes has shifted slightlyfrom 11-8 to 12-7indicating a modest convergence in views. - [--] members project [--] rate cut - [--] members project [--] cuts - [--] https://t.co/QbC2f2cwCH Fed members continue to show a dispersed outlook for [----] rate projections though the"
X Link 2025-12-10T20:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"CBRT cut the policy rate by 150bps as expected. The rate corridor was pulled down by the same extent. #CBRT #RateDecision https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/TR/TCMB+TR/Main+Menu/Duyurular/Basin/2025/DUY2025-63 https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/TR/TCMB+TR/Main+Menu/Duyurular/Basin/2025/DUY2025-63"
X Link 2025-12-11T11:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Interest Rate Decision Aligned with Inflation and Expectation Channel The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) cut its policy rate by [---] basis points in line with general expectations and also lowered the interest rate corridor by the same margin. Key highlights from the rate note suggest that the main inflation outlook and policy framework remain intact: 📍 A slight decline in the underlying trend of inflation. 📍 Quarterly growth in Q3 exceeded expectations; however the outlook for the final quarter indicates that demand conditions continue to support disinflation. 📍 Inflation"
X Link 2025-12-11T11:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The seasonal monthly current account surplus period is coming to an end at the CBRT📍 Despite a $457 million surplus in October the annual current account deficit continued to rise from $20.25 billion to $22.02 billion. Although the current account excluding gold and energy remains in surplus the annual surplus declined to $46 billion by the end of October down from $52.2 billion at the end of 2024📍 Starting from November we are likely to see monthly current account deficits. We may close the year with a current account deficit around $23 billion. A similar outlook is currently projected for"
X Link 2025-12-12T07:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Highlights from the CBRT December Market Participants Survey: #CBRT #MarketParticipantsSurvey #Expectations 📍Median inflation expectations: 1.0% for December 3.5% for January and 2.1% for February. With these monthly figures year-end inflation is projected at 31%. Annual inflation could drop to around 29% by the end of January and fall below that level in February. The year-end [----] forecast remains largely unchanged at 23%. My own forecast is 22%. 📍The USD/TRY exchange rate is expected to reach [--] by year-end and [--] by the end of next year. My estimates are slightly lower: [-----] and 49.85"
X Link 2025-12-12T08:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Is the real exchange rate overvalued #RealExchangeRate This remains a key equilibrium point with diverging views. According to the latest data the CPI-based real effective exchange rate (REER) using [----] as the base year stands at [-----]. This reflects a 0.8% depreciation compared to the end of 2024suggesting that the lira has largely maintained its real value in 2025📍 Of course we shouldnt overlook the 21.6% real appreciation that occurred in 2024📍 So was the REER at equilibrium at the end of [----] While the real exchange rate rose only 1.6% in [----] indicating relative stability it had"
X Link 2025-12-12T13:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As we approach the end of the year were seeing increased scrutiny around exchange rate movements and the perceptions they generate❗ Yesterday in this I shared a brief analysis questioning whether the Turkish lira is excessively overvalued in real terms. My conclusion was that while the lira has appreciated compared to the deeply undervalued levels seen during periods of irrational policy implementation this trend appears more like a move toward a more balanced level rather than a sign of overvaluation. Indeed when looking at broader timeframes the lira does not exhibit characteristics of"
X Link 2025-12-13T18:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"CBRT Reserves on the Rise for Three Consecutive Weeks 📌 In the upcoming data release for the week of December [--] we may see the Central Bank of Turkeys (CBRT) gross reserves climb back above $190 billion. As known gross reserves had reached a record high of $198.4 billion on October [--] before entering a weakening trendpartly due to the sharp decline in gold pricesfalling to $180.6 billion by November [--]. Daily analytical balance sheet data for the week of December [--] points to a weekly increase of around $4.2 billion in reserves. Notably $3.4 billion of this gain occurred in just the last"
X Link 2025-12-15T14:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Stress in the U.S. bond market persists: Despite dovish remarks from Fed member Miran the 10-year Treasury yield is back near 4.18% while the 10Y-2Y yield spread has widened to [--] basis points. If the upward trend in yields continues keep an eye on precious metals ❗ #USTreasuries #PreciousMetals #GoldSilver"
X Link 2025-12-15T16:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Brent crude has fallen below $60❗ As long as this sharp decline does not evolve into a disruptive trend for emerging markets and global risk appetite it could serve as a key supportive factor for disinflation and external balance sustainability in [----]. #Oil #Disinflation #CurrentAccountBalance"
X Link 2025-12-16T16:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The VIX volatility index struggles to remain sustainably below the [----] range. In particular current equity market levels are failing to gain traction amid uncertainties surrounding [----] causing upward momentum to fade. #SP500 #VIX"
X Link 2025-12-16T16:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A good day for Europe in the fight against inflation Positive data is coming infirst from the UK now from the Eurozone. Headline inflation in the Euro area has held steady at 2.1% for the past two months staying close to the ECBs target. Core inflation has also shown stability hovering around 2.4% for three consecutive months. Still the direction it takes next will be crucial❗ #Disinflation #EuroInflation Eurozone CPI (Y/Y) Nov F: 2.1% (est 2.2%; prev 2.2%) - CPI (M/M): -0.3% (est -0.3%; prev -0.3%) - CPI Core (Y/Y): 2.4% (est 2.4%; prev 2.4%) Eurozone CPI (Y/Y) Nov F: 2.1% (est 2.2%; prev"
X Link 2025-12-17T10:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Will [--------] finally narrow the gap between the S&P 500s Magnificent [--] and the rest The answer likely hinges on how AI-driven companies evolve in terms of cash flow and profit margins. If strong financials persist we might just witness a repeat of 2025s rally❗ #SP500 #AI #Magnificent7"
X Link 2025-12-17T10:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"ABD hisse piyasasnda teknoloji hisselerinin basks youn hissediliyor. Oracle CDS'lerdeki art devam ederken hisse %5 aada. Muhteem 7'nin arasnda olan Nvidia ve Alphabet de %2-3 deer kaybediyor. #TeknolojiHisseleri #ABDHisse #Oracle BREAKING: Credit default swap spreads on Oracle's $ORCL debt have surged above [---] bps. Investors are selling the stock over concerns around the company's ability to deliver on recently announced data center buildouts. https://t.co/40SIicXLJd BREAKING: Credit default swap spreads on Oracle's $ORCL debt have surged above [---] bps. Investors are selling the stock over"
X Link 2025-12-17T17:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Positive Signals from CBRTs Policy Meeting Minutes which followed a [---] basis point rate cut: 📍The underlying trend of inflation after rising in September showed a slight decline in October and November. 📍The downward trend in rent inflation continues on both a monthly and annual basis. 📍Leading indicators suggest that the positive trend in food prices observed in November has continued into December. While prices of fresh fruits and vegetables have declined in unprocessed food the increase in red meat prices has partially limited this positive trend. The gradual slowdown in processed food"
X Link 2025-12-18T11:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"No surprise in the ECBs rate decision: unchanged📍 Inflation outlook remains aligned with target: Headline inflation is projected at 2.1% this year easing to 1.9% in [----] and 1.8% in [----]. This keeps the forecast consistent with the ECBs target. Core inflation stays higher but follows the same downward trend: 2.4% in [----] 2.2% in [----] and 1.9% in [----]. Only the [----] forecast was revised upward due to persistent service-sector inflation. Growth outlook turns more optimistic: GDP growth is now expected at 1.4% in [----] 1.2% in [----] and 1.4% in [----]. #ECB #ForecastsRevised We kept our key"
X Link 2025-12-18T13:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
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