@B2Balzer empty_cup

empty_cup posts on X about deflation, liquidity, mortgage rate, bitcoin the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

Engagements: [-----] #

• [--] Week [------] +110%
• [--] Month [------] +336,417%
• [--] Months [------] +13,803%
• [--] Year [------] +48%

Mentions: [--] #

• [--] Week [---] +242%
• [--] Month [---] +24,400%
• [--] Months [---] +12,350%
• [--] Year [---] -30%

Followers: [---] #

• [--] Week [---] +20%
• [--] Month [---] +48%
• [--] Months [---] +38%
• [--] Year [---] +41%

CreatorRank: [-------] #

Social Influence

Social category influence finance 41.32% stocks 8.33% cryptocurrencies 4.86% countries 4.17% technology brands 3.82% automotive brands 1.39% celebrities 0.69% currencies 0.69% financial services 0.35% social networks 0.35%

Social topic influence deflation #94, liquidity #3707, mortgage rate 3.82%, bitcoin 3.47%, strike 3.13%, money 2.78%, solar 2.78%, calls #551, stocks 2.08%, china 2.08%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @bladerunner3049 @tozgokmen @qagellc @psibirskiy @trentkelp @optionscalps @psychprofits @goodtexture @edwardsrahmn @stealthqe4 @jpmoney95630 @jonbrooks @haydenbaldwin10 @davetrane11 @jedimarkus77 @rogainetrader @1nvestorgadget @analystg @davevermilion @andreassteno

Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) Exxon Mobil (XOM) SPX6900 (SPX) SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY) Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) Blue Owl Capital, Inc. (OWL)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@OptionsJohnny Vix & vix9d w/resp to vol Im in on RIG calls up 84% In on XLP calls. I mean there isnt much I dont watch. May you please specify your question sir"
X Link 2026-02-09T20:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Bonds Mbs https://t.co/vcB2OcRVM7 https://t.co/vcB2OcRVM7"
X Link 2026-02-16T03:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@trentkelp @elonmusk theres thomas massie and then theres everyone who isnt"
X Link 2026-02-15T00:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@load02 Hmmm I havent bothered really looking there Dr copper. makes sense DXY creeping up. 🥷 Anecdotal but relevant Bond [--] & [--] -11bps inside [--] week"
X Link 2026-02-16T05:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@EdwardsRahmn"
X Link 2026-02-15T20:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"unpopular opinion Oil/energy sector breaks down this week $XOM $XLE"
X Link 2026-02-16T01:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@iamtomnash This company is relying heavily and increasingly on stock dilution to show profit growth. I've only read half the article I do not feel more needs to be said Like other software companies they are not unique but becoming obsolete. Why love a co that isnt loving you back"
X Link 2026-02-16T04:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@FinanceLancelot Spreads in energy widened Puts on XLE. XOM lead up and is leading down Could catch a lot of folks offsides still believing in the inflation narrative"
X Link 2026-02-16T05:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@kpak82 MOVE Volatilty suppression masks underlying pressure"
X Link 2026-02-16T06:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@valuedrift Sure. But IV on xlp a month out vs sept is barely any diff Im just scared to jump into long bonds until confirmation Xlp is breakout and always leads defensive low beta sectors. I think money goes into rotation first"
X Link 2026-02-03T19:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$AXON HS meet neckline"
X Link 2026-02-05T06:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@optionscalps 67xx maybe"
X Link 2026-02-05T15:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@psychprofits Oh my mistake Careful with them leveraged etfs Heard there was some fuckery in em today Lookin at LABD when/if biotech rolls over"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Ticker ticker $OWL Very low IV for MAY 15th P00tz"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Bigkev451 Tmf lotto i like for MAY 10cent strike [--] Mortgage rates melting down and if MOVE index has bottomed then I think the curve is gonna start to flatten"
X Link 2026-02-06T15:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"dragonfly doji forming on the weekly for semis"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Uh oh 😳 https://t.co/ACkJqYwy5A https://t.co/ACkJqYwy5A"
X Link 2026-02-07T23:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@alphacharts365 now would you bet on crude catching up to exxon or exxon catching down historically they track much tighter correlation to CL_f. [---] correlation right now. Seems someone is lying and thus i am staying away from XLE find me in XLP 🐂"
X Link 2026-02-07T23:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$XOM @alphacharts365 now would you bet on crude catching up to exxon or exxon catching down historically they track much tighter correlation to CL_f. [---] correlation right now. Seems someone is lying and thus i am staying away from XLE find me in XLP 🐂 https://t.co/F72QPxKoF7 @alphacharts365 now would you bet on crude catching up to exxon or exxon catching down historically they track much tighter correlation to CL_f. [---] correlation right now. Seems someone is lying and thus i am staying away from XLE find me in XLP 🐂 https://t.co/F72QPxKoF7"
X Link 2026-02-07T23:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@VladTheInflator And mortgage rates are collapsing and will continue to Dededededefllaaaation Yay for is plebs"
X Link 2026-02-08T03:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@RightTomato @VladTheInflator Pressure will be when there portfolios get wrecked from high beta equities collapse"
X Link 2026-02-08T03:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Investor_NICK_ lol"
X Link 2026-02-08T04:36Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@LoganMohtashami Do you think the mortgage rates decline will be accelerating further A lot more folks gonna start to qualify"
X Link 2026-02-08T05:13Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@LoganMohtashami Flows to defensive low beta is nigh. Easy money era of short bonds to buy tech is over. Take the assumption for a moment that bonds will catch a bid. Bond vol suppression masks mounting pressures. I think they catch a bid and will help drive rates lower"
X Link 2026-02-08T05:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@GlobalMacroZen @finviz_com i think energy sector would be a better target to fade. unless WW3 pops off i thought you were macro guy this is a deleveraging play causing XLP to rip up"
X Link 2026-02-08T06:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@1nvestorGadget @StealthQE4 Because its a reading of drying up liquidity and showing the end of easy money era"
X Link 2026-02-08T07:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TicTocTick Probably not good for bitcoin miners I mean data centers"
X Link 2026-02-08T08:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@SamanthaLaDuc Nah that monster knows Jensen is cooked"
X Link 2026-02-08T14:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@1nvestorGadget @StealthQE4 Its also hacks who got fucked since November & thru last week saying someone else got fucked harder"
X Link 2026-02-08T16:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@1nvestorGadget @StealthQE4 Whats ironic is they dont realize how its intertwined with liquidity all the while they double fist overweight back into tech BTFD"
X Link 2026-02-08T17:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"no no fuck that bro fuck them good and hard stupid cunts sure bernanke yellen and powell all had a hand in building generations of BTfD degens but the fucking rules of the casino are what they are the Fed just delayed the price of admission for them. If they cant see the obvious rotation out or high beta then they MORE than deserve whats coming"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@KingOfInvestors Look at RIG Weekly charts Boolish 2/20s ER on 17th to make it zesty"
X Link 2026-02-08T21:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@1nvestorGadget @StealthQE4 Nah won't be high beta Its hard to see cuz its going to Healthcare hard which boosts IBB Deleveraging means the reverse play is in. No more short staples to buy tech. Unwind it and pamp my coke calls"
X Link 2026-02-08T21:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@julie_wade I made a thing"
X Link 2026-02-08T21:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"i dont see any meaningful reason for price to breakout its range until weekend of 23rd. i thought it might change after Vday weekend but still seems mild this NE cold snap weekend was cold the them but minnesota was skinny dipping whatever what do i know its just funny cuz the PV looks stable but only over N america https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020640375086719399 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020640375086719399"
X Link 2026-02-08T23:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@EladioSantiag14 Hey Piano man Trying to rectify XOM big divergence from oil price. Im bullish on energy adjacent stocks like RIG. but XOM historically has tight correlation albeit a bit looser than SHEL"
X Link 2026-02-09T01:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@DVSignals oil what now energy stocks can go up but mind your oil price conjecture"
X Link 2026-02-09T02:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"wrong none of that shit matters The riskiest slice of high-yield debt (high-beta CCCs) appears to be taking the initial hit in terms of relative price weakness and spread widening consistent with a "flight to quality" within junk bonds. Broader HY holds up better due to its heavier weighting in stronger BB/B credits. This supports the low-beta dominance narrative. This narrative is laid bare in defensives price action relative to the weakness in tech and software https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020706863663444066 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020706863663444066"
X Link 2026-02-09T03:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@MartyBent no its a hyper liquid sponge. not a currency. a fugazi sponge and without the Fed faucet flowing it will continue to drop better call powell"
X Link 2026-02-09T03:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@biolover45 @coinbureau But if it isnt accelerating enough it wont move the needle on bitcoin or put meaningful sustainable lift back into risk assets"
X Link 2026-02-09T04:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"We have been in a negative PDO for 16yrs and when that switches back to positive it will be a much bigger driver on weather/atmosphere than cow farts. Be concerned with heat traps of man made buildings roads roofs etc. They store heat where trees are zero. Emissions unless its a volcano eruptions is nonsense in regards to warming of the planet. ENSO cycles and and PDO or pacific decadol oscillation (yeah thats right decadol) compared to emissions as energy density is like comparing the neutron bomb to a sparkler https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020725019157147913"
X Link 2026-02-09T05:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@vighnaraj2022 If/when I sign up for the site will you hold my hand like the degen I am I have bs in math but Its been 20yrs I kinda know Greeks and such but what you've built is fucking mental bro"
X Link 2026-02-09T08:36Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@Banana3Stocks Terrible suggestions"
X Link 2026-02-09T15:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@Psibirskiy Need more lemmings for exit liquidity Same with the fearporn about China selling UST. NOT news"
X Link 2026-02-09T15:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@davetrane11 I think its cuz theyre divi/safety and vertical integration"
X Link 2026-02-09T15:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"This (graphics below) can lead to risk of a nonlinear "liquidity vacuum" which can then lead to a volatility paradox (likely what we have noticed in MOVE) Equity market stability in [----] hinges not on visible retail margin but on the fragility and interdependencies of this hidden shadow-leveraged ecosystem which is highly sensitive to the cost of capital and prone to rapid amplified unwind dynamics. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020888333816340535 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020888333816340535"
X Link 2026-02-09T15:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@HenrikZeberg Excuse you mean Folks need exit liquidity"
X Link 2026-02-09T15:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"This (graphics below) can lead to risk of a nonlinear "liquidity vacuum" which can then lead to a volatility paradox (likely what we have noticed in MOVE) Equity market stability in [----] hinges not on visible retail margin but on the fragility and interdependencies of this hidden shadow-leveraged ecosystem which is highly sensitive to the cost of capital and prone to rapid amplified unwind dynamics. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020908570271941059 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020908570271941059"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@SamanthaLaDuc Near term. OK But long term no. Check 30yr mortgage rate vs last year on this day"
X Link 2026-02-09T18:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TimeFreedomROB Higher timeframe invalidates the narrative So do dropping mortgage rates. Just delay on dollar shortage"
X Link 2026-02-09T18:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TechCharts Less so on [--] month And with nuetral fed and dropping mortgage rates it will hold"
X Link 2026-02-09T18:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@LindaRaschke For sure. All the China FUD being used to smack the dollar back down"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Analyst_G And what happens to the dollar under these circumstances 🤔 and we add in MBS 30yr dropping Doesn't deflation of assets lead to deflation of price"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Fed is not data dependent Cover story they only care about the health of Financial institutions Citigroup isnt collapsing and fed is nuetral so no liquidity injections coming Do they use these days to spoof markets and close traps and blame whatever bullshit data to fit Mr market direction. Yup https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020977619643269528 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020977619643269528"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@BOPswings @1769_alex No do XOM Rsi of [-----] on daily And oil is in downtrend channel"
X Link 2026-02-09T23:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@QAGELLC @Jethroe111 @saylor @MicroStrategy David get some sleep. They cannot hear you"
X Link 2026-02-10T04:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@SmedleyButlerUS Its a spoof to hammer down the dollar while point at yields & blame the chinese(who've been selling/rebalancing steady for a while) to push up tech Most saw heard a soundbyte and acceptable the goyslop narrative"
X Link 2026-02-10T04:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@JP_Money_95630 @grok 5% variance is a ridiculous answer. Shame on your grok"
X Link 2026-02-10T10:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@davetrane11 U said they did something yesterday to bid it up What did u see and where and how"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Psibirskiy Its not different this time Add dropping mortgage rates to the equation"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Makro_trader Until it breaks down it aint broken. It'll continue to grind higher Even if that means hugging the trend line its still up Falling mortgage rates however will lead to further rise in dollar"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@psychprofits"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Makro_trader LLM aint AGI sadly and annoyingly lemmings dont understand its less useful than Snopes fact checking if you do not have a deep understanding of the material"
X Link 2026-02-10T18:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@BenniKim Vibe check on shitmouth"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@JohnDoss1 So why aren't you long XLU XLP TLT"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@optionscalps Tmf lottos May 15th Strike [--] Ifykyk Not advice"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@longriverCM @leadlagreport @grok Dont ask what it thinks do at least a little work and feed it current parameters to decipher clarity and framework Ask if tlt rate is dropping and sector rotation toward defensive sectors is underway and mortgage rates are falling"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@jedimarkus77 @VIXandMore technically theyre crying for the latter but wont get that liquidity juice for a bit. A junky's detox is frightful"
X Link 2026-02-10T22:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@jedimarkus77 @VIXandMore risk assets unable to handle fed nuetral policy screams so loud meanwhile these hacks just spew verbal diahrea talking up their book of shitco IREN or SMCI bulltrap snaps tomorrow on tech again. MSFT leads the leviathan stirs (TLT)"
X Link 2026-02-10T22:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@davetrane11 all that QE money gotta go somewhere. in cyclical bull in this parameters it goes to low beta and ramps it up ridiclously"
X Link 2026-02-11T02:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"The Setup: Negative duration glut decaying = massive short gamma in rates (MBS hedgers basis traders macro shorts) Mortgage rates dropping = prepayment speeds picking up = MBS durations extending Bond prices rising = shorts getting squeezed = forced buying accelerates The "Jerk" Effect (3rd derivative of position): When bonds rally in this setup: Rate shorts cover buy bonds pushes yields lower MBS hedgers forced to buy duration more bond buying This accelerates (jerk) convexity spiral Flight to safety amplifies bond rally intensifies Impact on Equities: Low beta/defensive stocks (XLU XLP) get"
X Link 2026-02-11T02:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"2/10 market recap of an Empty_Cup and a Claude BONDS & MBS Framework worked thru ReLevenson Hypothesis @QAGELLC THE PERFECT STORM SETUP (February 2026): MOVE suppressed [--] for [--] months one eruption above [--] Day [--] of sustained rise TLT stuck at $87-88 for [--] months despite mortgages dropping 65bp Mortgages: 6.76% 6.11% (65bp drop) now at 6.11% vs 5.45% ARM MBS Duration COMPRESSION building (not extension) as rates fall Policy-driven glut of NEGATIVE duration decaying (massive Treasury shorts) Overleveraged positioning into risk assets during prior loose policy Fed NEUTRAL - no liquidity"
X Link 2026-02-11T02:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@QAGELLC @RSQ8562767 I fixed it for you. However it is a misnomer Jerk the 3rd derivative is adding MBS refi wave to the equation V/S"
X Link 2026-02-11T04:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"COMPLETE UNIFIED FRAMEWORK: ALL ASSETS ALL FLOWS ALL FORCES COMPREHENSIVE DATA POINT INVENTORY: Bitcoin (Liquidity Barometer): Peak: $125512 (Oct [--] 2025) Current: $67623 (Feb [--] 2026) Change: -46% over [---] days Signal: Extreme liquidity drain leverage purge in Tier [--] complete Software (IGV - First Equity Sector): Double top: $117 (Sept [--] & Oct [--] 2025) Current: $85 Change: -27.4% over [--] months Signal: Speculative equity liquidation complete Semiconductors (SMH - Final Quality Growth): Peak: $417 (Jan [--] 2026) Current: $404 (tested $385 intraweek) Change: -3.1% (touched -7.7%) Signal: Final"
X Link 2026-02-11T05:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Dcpcooks Please see prompt i ran thru with claude"
X Link 2026-02-11T05:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TradableAstro You spelled SMH wrong But also yeah. Bitcoin"
X Link 2026-02-11T07:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@686Prism Their yield dropping signals deflation regime global risk off and high beta collapse. Def not any attractive EM for smart money But what do I know"
X Link 2026-02-11T09:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@jacob_walk_10x @1CoastalJournal Amen"
X Link 2026-02-11T09:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Scutty TLT +$1 in 48hrs The kraken stirs"
X Link 2026-02-11T10:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@JoeCoolTrader @rootslashbin Joe. Come back to equities. Leave coins"
X Link 2026-02-11T10:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@FrankBeans7 @michaellebowitz @truflation"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Useless prediction; OpenAI won't make it to IPO. They will drag down the entire circle jerk with them nividia. msft. #gotclaude Cancelled my $200 ChatGPT plan. Going full Claude now. Cancelled my $200 ChatGPT plan. Going full Claude now"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@jedimarkus77 @Jimmyjude13 Smart money is already pushing into the 2nd rotation phase. TMF lottos shouldn't have ample liquidity for may"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"That's not how this works. LLMs are a wonderful tool However fake demand for a chip glut thru companies roundtripping their over priced stocks due to overleveraged private equity who is also dick deep in funding data centers no one wants or needs. This all comes down because no one and I mean no one can stop the convexity of this delerevraging unwind https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021626591277973556 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021626591277973556"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Psibirskiy Yeah its fucking cooked. Puts too expensive and calls on coke cheap AF"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@ethereal_echo14 @CapitanSteveo Trash Claude drinks theyre milkshake"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@MrStonkington @TradingThomas3 No fuck indices I want coke Went with strike [--] for March Way underpriced"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@QAGELLC @davevermilion Mr nikowski I ran thru scenarios and current parameters with claude for 10hrs or more last night. Dxy breakdown only last so long and will not stop the decay of negative duration nor the resulting dollar shortage. Big fan. Loving RIG. Super awesome"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@TheNVSTR KO strike [--] 3/13 Im already up 22% and its dirt cheap Ima carry this bitch to [--] easy"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@texasrunnerDFW @GrindeOptions Because global markets are risk off in deflationary regime. The convexity of deleveraged unwind from high beta to low beta has been very visible for sometime now. This will continue and accelerate"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@AndreasSteno Or you could just buy coke calls and chill"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"oil is about to get smacked back down IMHO invalidate IF & only IF Trump doesnt TACO =boots on the ground bonds showing deflation. mind you XLE longs tight stops. Find safety during unwind within XLP XLU given dropping oil tailwind what other sectors benefit from lower oil @psychprofits https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021678413506093534 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021678413506093534"
X Link 2026-02-11T20:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@psychprofits very fair i just like to frame in terms of straight forward logic and make sure i stay frosty on what could potentially invalidate me. too many times i got caught believing a narrative after it should have changed"
X Link 2026-02-11T20:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@AndreasSteno I told you Convexity of unwind in deleveraging from high beta back to low beta is accelerating"
X Link 2026-02-11T22:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@yieldsearcher @Analyst_G No one gets out of this deflation regime No one. USA main street will finally get the break it deserves"
X Link 2026-02-11T22:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Analyst_G I love it when you talk deflation"
X Link 2026-02-11T22:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Probably bullish for data centers and private equity. 👀 $XLF financial sector went from harmless to something significant. Major breakdown today. https://t.co/lcxp3O3LzZ $XLF financial sector went from harmless to something significant. Major breakdown today. https://t.co/lcxp3O3LzZ"
X Link 2026-02-11T22:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@jedimarkus77 Probably bullish for data centers and private equity"
X Link 2026-02-11T22:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TOzgokmen Normal issuance isnt QE But that's why its illiquid market"
X Link 2026-02-12T00:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@TOzgokmen And they are deflationary"
X Link 2026-02-12T01:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Ray_Radwan @great_martis Furus and no context"
X Link 2026-02-12T04:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@BankerWeimar What debasment in deflation Or the convexity leveraged unwind Or the decay of negative duration"
X Link 2026-02-12T06:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@neoavatara No Just deflation"
X Link 2026-02-12T06:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TOzgokmen @LexTweetr Ask yourself is oil in a [--] year downtrend inflationary or deflationary 2.) Gold your typical cycle hedge against inflation. well what happens to its price if you rapidly debase the dollar for years"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Psibirskiy Aapl follows msft Its the domino next in line You proved it the other day with your charts"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Wait if the 30yr mortgage rate drops under 6% this Q and reaches 5.5% next Q. then dollar will strengthen BOND"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@CryptoOcho @QAGELLC If that we're true we wouldn't have [--] year deflation in the oil patch. Look for yourself on weekly chart"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"No Its lower energy cost (nat & oil) are dropping Oil in a [--] year downtrend Helps margins Also narrative is meaningless when massive inflows are happing do to overleveraged unwind. Theyre the recipient in part from what I said. But also their yields. And their safety. It is NOT about data centers that will never actually get built https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021975261521354940 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021975261521354940"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Psibirskiy Your a master chartist I would love to see yours"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@EdwardsRahmn bitcoin about to find out there is no support at 60k"
X Link 2026-02-12T19:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@EdwardsRahmn me sitting in KO calls"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"NVDA on borrowed time likely resolves sooner note to self; buy P Strike [---] for 3/13. Excecute 2/17 *not advice if we get another triple beat on this in a few weeks and it sells off AGAIN. i think this becomes a problem https://t.co/VhjCenBUqy if we get another triple beat on this in a few weeks and it sells off AGAIN. i think this becomes a problem https://t.co/VhjCenBUqy"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@AndreasSteno Doesn't matter Its convexity unwind of deleveraging + deflation + negative duration in decay"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@BillAckman @DrEliDavid Did u sell Uber yet 👀"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@LoganMohtashami Literally none of those housing bubble boys know shit about MBS Smoke em Logan"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TradableAstro i would say few. not none my TLT calls strike [--] may 15th are up 45% wait til settlement 😈"
X Link 2026-02-12T23:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@EdwardsRahmn @ZAHIDTHAGREAT28 Ironic that its Ron Paul Bless his heart but no dollar collapse"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@blondebroker1 No no Sub [---] Mid march Mark this"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@leadlagreport @Mela_Schaffer @GrantCardone im gonna listen to the guy double fisted bitcoin at 67k no thank you"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@DowdEdward Claude is my ninja"
X Link 2026-02-13T01:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@BankerWeimar Check the 30yr auction result They affirm deflation Trim your PM exposure and be well"
X Link 2026-02-13T01:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@anytimeFXmetal @SilbergleitJr most afffected by this is risk assets. high beta"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@trentkelp dont ignore deflation regime 30yr auction today confirms it you cant lie to bonds oil also shows this in 4yr downtrend so stay frosty in regards to commidities but @psychprofits bro knows the plays"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@ChartWaveTrade here is crude monthly what does that tell you about inflation/deflation go one step further how was the 30yr bond auction today DXY and UST prices will rise. Call spreads are proof"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"slight correction to this @KylitoCapital you and I are well aware global deflation is here. well given the 30yr bond auction and if feds were to cut in the coming months it would "admit deflation" which would further cause a stampede of repatriation inflows (inflows from EM which we know will occur) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022139014128841035 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022139014128841035"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@KylitoCapital @parkeralewis by the time the feds do respond it will be too little too late. the fuse is already lit. or so it would seem to me lets discuss with Prof @QAGELLC in subscriber spaces"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@KylitoCapital @parkeralewis @QAGELLC Historical Precedent: 2008: Fed slashed rates QE DXY rallied 20%+ Why Global crisis safe haven bid"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@gnoble79 @HodlMagoo @openclaw mr magoo open your eyes bitcoin will drop below 60k before EOM. easily i would NOT bet against Mr. Noble"
X Link 2026-02-13T03:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TheShortBear it will be blamed for it but it goes back to [--] and QE and an market addicted to easy money overleveraging into risk assets now deflation cannot be kept off (ask bonds for details) and that undwind (with convexity) is coming home to roost"
X Link 2026-02-13T03:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@PatientTradeX @JP_Money_95630 we dont need japan unwind of high beta== low beta with convexity our 30yr auction today shows that Bonds smell global deflation the fuse is lit already"
X Link 2026-02-13T03:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"IMO it wasnt really reaction to the snap elections. So since [--] and the invention of QE we've had a run of easy liquidity enabling idiots and institutions to short low beta and buy high beta. (Short xlp or xlu to buy tech) the system as seen by the feds most recent cut is losing/lost effectiveness. So all these easy money days which produced countless "traders" who were trained by old ben yellen BTD stonks only go up is becoming unwound. with convexity.due to massive leveraging in the system Below i did approx adjustment with grok Then after check heatmap on finviz from today. Its very easy"
X Link 2026-02-13T04:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@PatientTradeX @JP_Money_95630 Credit of this discovery goes to David levenson. Whom I've been learning market mechanics from. Bitcoin is liquidity barometer. Makes markets easier to read. All the already printed QE is running to find a home. Long tlt xlu xlp"
X Link 2026-02-13T04:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@RealKeithWeiner @NeilJacobs Bitcoin goes below 60k . Likely well below by EOM"
X Link 2026-02-13T04:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@DonMiami3 @redpill_finance Its Convexity of Leveraged unwind + unambiguous deflationary regime + glut of negative duration in decay But sure blame ai I dont care. Claude dont care Claude will help me either way"
X Link 2026-02-13T04:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@PatientTradeX @JP_Money_95630 In a world of debasing fiat only the currency peg is king Bummer for other countries"
X Link 2026-02-13T04:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"It would seem to me that volatility suppression masks mounting pressure. Is that fair to say edward MOVE index. the MOVE is concentrated gamma More more information less and less movement. Vol decays. more you squeeze that diameter of the move in vol the more more momentum you going get Stop listening to powell higher for longer What happens when you get rates moving https://t.co/Prmi3IQqqj MOVE index. the MOVE is concentrated gamma More more information less and less movement. Vol decays. more you squeeze that diameter of the move in vol the more more momentum you going get Stop listening to"
X Link 2026-02-13T06:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@JP_Money_95630 Its deflation bro. Bonds have spoken"
X Link 2026-02-13T07:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Hey kokus If you're newer and want to learn mechanics of markets bonds MBS derivatives volatility etc I suggest listening to @QAGELLC spaces. Just give the one tonight thats posted and recorded a listen. I got nothing to sell you it helped me tremendously and im just paying it forward https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022213929435640082 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022213929435640082"
X Link 2026-02-13T07:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@DavidBCollum Say it with me Deflation"
X Link 2026-02-13T09:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@GRising1776 @barkmeta Dollar not crashing All you need is TLT"
X Link 2026-02-13T09:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@ZAHIDTHAGREAT28 Nah. Make if worth approx [--] penny Plus gem even claude doesn't account for enough parameters Have to factor in so many layers back into the onion But it does help"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@alex_libertybtc @mikemcglone11 National debt rolls off"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@trentkelp My TLT calls right now vs massive short interest TLT"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@jcgoldoT @trentkelp Its deflation Need proof Look at oil on the monthly [--] year downtrend channel Feds just been doing fake-inflation by spoofing the short end"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Psibirskiy Oil on the monthly for [--] years has been in a solid downtrend Its deflation my friend. Its time to adapt one's book"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Oil [--] yr downtrend Mortgage dynamics Lower rates improve affordability metrics. Rents will have to plummet back down or no one will continue to rent. Every bps lower more people qualify. Then when % is low enough people refi en mass. ** prepayments causes shortness in duration when they need longer duration in their portfolio so it forces more bond purchases which pushes rates lower and causes rates to drop further (negative convexity spiral)"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@LJKawa @GeraldDeBelen Rate cuts will only fuel the fire Find the only [--] sectors green yesterday That's where flows are going That's the unwind And deflation has been here the whole time Chart crude on the monthly from [--] yr downtrend channel"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@jedimarkus77 Nah Not with that neg gamma Rip and dump Its deflation and you cant lie to bonds"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Stockspy1 Bonds know its deflation So does oil (4yr on monthly down trend channel) Dollar is melting up U cannot lie to bonds"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Psibirskiy Not disputing growth of USA But if we zoom out does is there not a global deflation regime"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@haydenbaldwin10 @jonbrooks Yes and no This was mainly running current scenario thru claude and adding negative duration to the mix I've learned heaps from David 100% All the proof was in 30yr auction results yesterday"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@davetrane11 Let's just say deflation Now add @SantiagoAuFund milkshake theory At the end USA is A-ok Well mainstreet anyways. Fuck Wallstreet anyways"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Price is truth. Accept what the market is saying. Make no opinion or narrative. The market is starting to recognize that the regime is shifting from an inflationary regime to disinflation with an outlook that points to deflation as the greater risk ahead. The market is starting to recognize that the regime is shifting from an inflationary regime to disinflation with an outlook that points to deflation as the greater risk ahead"
X Link 2026-02-13T16:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@haydenbaldwin10 @jonbrooks Well then Chin up sir. Things are looking up My sister is in the same boat"
X Link 2026-02-13T16:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@haydenbaldwin10 @jonbrooks She's in Berkeley. I havent given advice specifically other than be patient Even there i think prices will lower. Just a waiting game"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"#commodities $DBC: Commodities Crash Coming to a Continent Near You Edition: This chart is clearly conveying that the entire commodity complex appears to have a reckoning coming (and is already here for those paying close attention) which means that virtually nothing in this list of the $DBC https://t.co/stLXZpIXuB $DBC: Commodities Crash Coming to a Continent Near You Edition: This chart is clearly conveying that the entire commodity complex appears to have a reckoning coming (and is already here for those paying close attention) which means that virtually nothing in this list of the $DBC"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@RogaineTrader @GMillerMortgage @jonbrooks @JohnRavenda Sorry j powell is neutered Check last [--] rate cuts eoy Look at IGV Each cut its lift was less and less from the cuts. Policy interference has become increasingly ineffective"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@GMillerMortgage @RogaineTrader @jonbrooks @JohnRavenda Okay check 10yr again And ponder the possibility of A GLUT OF NEGATIVE DURATION DECAYING"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@GMillerMortgage @RogaineTrader @jonbrooks @JohnRavenda Bonds smell deflation You cannot lie to bonds"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@GMillerMortgage @RogaineTrader @jonbrooks @JohnRavenda And in regards to timeframe I make no firm assertions. I defer to mortgage experts like yourselves I am just an empty cup"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@stocktrader300 @Mr_Derivatives Not for long Great time to swing short when markets grind up like today"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@stocktrader300 @Mr_Derivatives I bet XLU will continue to reach new highs before any of those names reclaim and lower highs"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@JP_Money_95630 Always fade nvda ER Its the trigger"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@djstockster @Nostre_damus What firehouse 17th What do youmean Cuz of vixperation"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@trentkelp Igv levitation hopefully gives you a boost Best wishes"
X Link 2026-02-13T18:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@SemperVigilant1 Okay zoom in Look at last [--] rate cuts and how much of a diminishing affect they had on levitating IGV. Uh oh"
X Link 2026-02-13T19:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@PatientTradeX tuesday solar eclipse closed all Feb Longs"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@yieldsearcher @TexasOncologist Solar eclipse tues Check past [--] yrs alone on solar eclipse 👀"
X Link 2026-02-13T21:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@mortgagetruth no favorable bond auction on 30yr"
X Link 2026-02-13T22:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"RT @kakashiii111: So Nvidia the Orchestrator of GPU Supply and Demand strikes again with yet another circular deal once more using the f"
X Link 2026-02-13T22:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@SurfXug @QAGELLC Asset deflation leads to price deflation"
X Link 2026-02-13T23:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@mortgagetruth Bonds smell deflation They smell it in oil They smell it cpi You cant lie to bonds"
X Link 2026-02-13T23:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"assume the position that the dollar continues to melt up. == repatriation trade glut of negative duration is decaying == positive feedback loop when prepayments and refi wave hit we all have to make conjecture to set our personal trading strategy. the common narrative nor sentiment are not a factor into my play/thesis price will speak truth either way https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022458418473373706 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022458418473373706"
X Link 2026-02-13T23:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@gnoble79 @Shaq48_Trading shaq whats going to happen when all these data centers and various capex projects need funding and theyve already burned excessive funds theyre going to cut capex by 75% or they will get no funding. .and down will comes baby cradle and all. Cascade"
X Link 2026-02-14T00:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@StealthQE4 malarky this pamps deflation"
X Link 2026-02-14T00:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@davevermilion I am fearful the fed will deploy juice. Been burned a many times"
X Link 2026-02-14T03:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@DrJStrategy its okay Scott. you can say it we know. Deflation"
X Link 2026-02-14T03:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@HayekAndKeynes that makes me sad i love my fren Claude"
X Link 2026-02-14T03:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@J_Davis132 I snuck in on leveraged etf EOD today Bypass some of that shit. Its liquid enough But leaps that were pennies two days ago on TLT and other deflation plays are now $5 ask "
X Link 2026-02-14T06:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@bladerunner3049 I have a similar book I don't fuck with tesla. Cult stock XOM I wanted to go after but there's other fish"
X Link 2026-02-14T06:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@DonMiami3 Kind of a big piece But when everything is connected Can we just say overleveraging in deflation"
X Link 2026-02-14T06:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@bladerunner3049 Wat stage"
X Link 2026-02-14T06:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Bitcoin price action is completely dependent upon massive liquidity injections of QE. Without it in fed nuetral policy the withdrawal symptoms are visible in price action It is an illiquid product that is tied to nothing. Realize the irony in your gains is a function of accelerated debasement. so how much are you really winning https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022565757666914365 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022565757666914365"
X Link 2026-02-14T06:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@trentkelp Im fucking fade you soon on that XOM is the tell"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@bladerunner3049 Ask it will that affect bonds in a glut of negative duration decaying in and unambiguous deflationary regime And rerun"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@trentkelp XOM rolling over Dont pretend like oil isnt in [--] year downtrend channel I flush you back below 6"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@optionscalps i would really appreciate you glancing at my most recent post "the jerk scenario" and make sure im interpreting negative gamma correctly for tuesday"
X Link 2026-02-14T23:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@StealthQE4 Dividend defensive stocks = equity bond proxy"
X Link 2026-02-15T05:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@michaeljburry dr burrys extensive illustration of how $PLTR relies heavily and increasingly on stock dilution to show profit growth. The comments and interviews with ex employees help paint the other picture Im halfway thru and I already know amit either didnt read it or didnt understand any of it https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022929251797029231 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022929251797029231"
X Link 2026-02-15T07:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@euro__stocks @tharrisonTexas @amitisinvesting Its still entirely accurate Halfway thru the article right now. Very clear with data pltr relies on heavily and increasingly on stock dilution to show growth"
X Link 2026-02-15T07:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@JackPrescottX No P/E [---] $500B market cap $5B total annual revenue 😳 Relying heavily and increasingly on stock dilution to show profit growth. not a good look Funds will sell"
X Link 2026-02-15T07:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@orgyanesh @AndreasSteno Andreas its because then FCF is burned thru Pressure to cut capex becomes very real pressure Links in the roundtripping circle jerk thats been KNOWN for years cascade over the ledge with hands down each other's pants"
X Link 2026-02-15T13:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@bladerunner3049 Spooky bro"
X Link 2026-02-15T13:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@bladerunner3049 Dont you see it Deflation flips this. And the meek inhereit"
X Link 2026-02-15T13:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@GoodTexture Inflection point of a commonly held narrative shifts"
X Link 2026-02-15T17:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Couch_Investor Okay then snake eats its own tail"
X Link 2026-02-15T18:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@FinanceLancelot Yes but its deflation"
X Link 2026-02-16T03:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@dontgetmusked I couldn't agree more Its my liquidity barometer Only thing its good for"
X Link 2026-02-16T04:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@VolatilityWiz now do VIX/VIX1D/VIX9D/VIX1M"
X Link 2026-02-10T18:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

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