@ArenaManCapital Avatar @ArenaManCapital ARENA MAN CAPITAL

ARENA MAN CAPITAL posts on X about $csuto, $toiv, china, $2360hk the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance stocks countries technology brands currencies travel destinations cryptocurrencies automotive brands luxury brands fashion brands

Social topic influence $csuto #39, $toiv #11, china, $2360hk #1, money, $pnpto, ai, $mgpi #1, $tbrg #1, $chgde

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @mikefritzell @nicoperjes @globalstockpick @cj0pp3l @bizalmanac @valuepraya @dabao @1lemonaday @longriverhk @philhk @berkelkip @historianzhang @atelicinvest @hurdlerate @notmarkleonard @pandawatch88 @jerrycap @lukewolgram @compoundpapi @tintincapital

Top assets mentioned NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Brown-Forman Corporation Class B (BF.B) Diageo plc (DEO) Danaher Corporation (DHR) Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) Shopify Inc (SHOP) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) Costco Hot Dog (COST) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) Salesforce Inc (CRM) Markel, Corp. (MKL) NVR, Inc. (NVR) Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B (BRK.B)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@CJ0pp3l Potentially $CHG (Chapters Group). A "reasonable valuation" compared to the $CSU clan 15% ownership by Mitch Rales (of $DHR) relationships with $DHR so subs can copy parts of the $DHR playbook avg price paid so far is 6x EBITDA. Likely too early to tell for sure though"
X Link 2023-09-17T12:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@MikeFritzell Met a woman who averaged 40%+ CAGR on whisky for decades. Her strategy was very limited liquidity but if you knew whisky foolproof. Whisky is boom/bust like anything else. Broad sweeping statements on asset classes can be true but not always useful to investors who can pick"
X Link 2023-10-08T15:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@jedimarkus77"
X Link 2023-11-02T16:43Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@oclmtl @TheLoneWolf58 @TidefallCapital @onebeggar When there were long periods of time where Fairfax's BV CAGR underperformed the USD inflation rate yes. I think it is material. Future performance is a function of his capital allocation. Buffett discarded Sokol for being a snake. Prem then went and bought all of Atlas"
X Link 2023-11-03T15:06Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@microcapmindset The only similarity between the two is the use of options. How the org works the use of spec building how functional acquisitions are all different. $DFH is built for speed. $NVR is built for stability"
X Link 2023-11-19T22:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Investmentideen @StephenFrampto9 Makes sense. Are there any flaws to using the CSU provided FCFA2S"
X Link 2023-11-25T11:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@MoS_Investing Protip: for consumer brands look at Google Trends"
X Link 2024-01-09T02:04Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@MikeFritzell This is probably true but only for B2C. Are engineering teams going to spend [--] quarters to rip out AWS Are customer service teams going to pay consultants to migrate from Salesforce onto an unproven CRM I think not"
X Link 2024-01-21T13:23Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@MikeFritzell Started [--] companies [--] of which in HK. Also formerly spent time at MSFT/NVDA/AMZN. Impossible to raise capital lack of eng talent (if you're an EM you can get a job in [--] seconds) SG has a MUCH more supportive gov. I remember SG paying 100% of SG salaries [--] years ago"
X Link 2024-01-22T09:50Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@MikeFritzell Crazy amount of construction going on. Also half Russian. I haven't heard of any professional moving there. But the number of people I have heard moving to Saudi Arabia is insane"
X Link 2024-01-27T18:50Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@NicoperJES Who the heck has time to marvel at the miracle of life and to take care of one's flesh and blood when there's shareholder interests to take care of"
X Link 2024-02-08T03:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@JGGCDN @Dave_Eby Parce que les gens vont protester. More competent government (they opened REM vs. Toronto's been waiting for Eg extension forever) less mafia style corruption and Montreal is generally a much less prosperous city than Vancouver"
X Link 2024-02-14T09:45Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@NicoperJES Is it better to buy Pinetree or buy the things that Pinetree buys"
X Link 2024-02-22T07:27Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@phil_hk [----] seems awfully scary with a wall of debt of more than 3x sales due and 667M HKD In the bank. Presumably office in Central is going to fill first where Hysan has 25% leases due in the next few years. There's a recovery in retail rents but is it going to make a dent"
X Link 2024-02-22T13:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@stevenpratt719 @INVESTMENTSHULK Net-net China wanted to not have people hooked on opium. Britain said nuh-uh we're going to get you hooked"
X Link 2024-02-25T05:54Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@PythiaR There is no regulatory capture. $NVDA will see competition one day. Just not today. Source: I used to work for $NVDA"
X Link 2024-03-02T06:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@ClarkSquareCap $CRN.L Cairn homes. Best housing dynamics AFAIK in a western country. Huge government balance sheet/surplus to subsidize housing amid a more than decade shortfall. Low price to income. Scale economies"
X Link 2024-03-07T04:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@MikeFritzell I trimmed because I only invest in HKEX illiquid value traps. It's still not expensive though"
X Link 2024-03-21T03:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@MikeFritzell @phil_hk Agree with Phil on both CNOOC potentially reaching historical multiples and there being better bets out there. Oil's future is unknowable so you can probably have more certainty. Also no better feeling than seeing all your friends get rich while you hold onto illiquid HK traps"
X Link 2024-03-21T04:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@MikeFritzell Who are the allies and who are the axis The record on both sides are questionable. If you speak English we'd probably argue the Eastern countries but more than 5M died (Holocaust was 6M) and 38M displaced as a result of US occupation of the Middle East. I'm not so sure"
X Link 2024-03-21T06:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@shravanrayhaan @bentan__ A lot of homebuilders are cheap. Rate sensitivity consumer confidence etc. Ireland is one of the most constructive setups in OECD for housing. Government runs a fiscal surplus funnels a large check into the housing market. Ireland is doing what other countries wish they could"
X Link 2024-03-22T12:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@MrCoffeeBeans9 At the time Constellation Software lineage with a reasonable valuation Poland is such an interesting country IT roll ups probs work (did some work on $CTS.TO previously) rapid improvement in margins"
X Link 2024-04-02T03:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Tintincapital Shenzhen/Shanghai Exchanges started in '90. HK was only handed over in '97. The capital markets in China are very new. Most of the wealth isn't older than [--] generation. Real estate has centuries of history. It takes time for capital markets attitudes and regulation to mature"
X Link 2024-04-03T12:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@hurdle_rate If you frame valuations as multiples your statements make sense. But 25% CAGR in [--] years is close to a [--] bagger where the short term multiple is less consequential. It depends on what you want to bet on"
X Link 2024-04-23T06:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@hurdle_rate You're definitely right there will be multiple contraction at some point. That said I have spent my career in tech where everyone has massive egos nobody is serious and yet they keep growing. I think the quality of mousetrap trumps ego or even the quality of talent"
X Link 2024-04-23T06:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"At $PTON John Foley the former CEO used to say "together we go far" and that was the company motto. By all accounts it was a great place to work and everyone was nice. @Sugrorsmannen of $TEQ.ST signs his letters with "run far be nice" and I wonder if there is some deja vu"
X Link 2024-04-23T07:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@CCM_Ryan You asked for it $DFH is a mediocre ducked taped homebuilding roll up with awful product and customer satisfaction. Having met/worked with folks in $ADSK c-suite I can tell you they are basically idiots and as recent events would illustrate it shows"
X Link 2024-04-24T16:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@BigBoyBern80872 @hurdle_rate It is not possible forever but it is possible for a long enough time to render the concept of terminal value moot. Especially in the context of a standard [--] or [--] year DCF"
X Link 2024-04-26T02:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@BigBoyBern80872 @hurdle_rate Not sure you would do a DCF except for maybe a gut check. Any DCF would be so off the mark it'd be mostly useless at best (misleading at worst). There aren't even FCF margins for there to be a cash flow since they typically burning capital for intangibles"
X Link 2024-04-26T03:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@MikeFritzell @rhunterh Probably depends where in the US and what the color of your skin is. The scariest moments I've ever had were in Colombia and the US"
X Link 2024-05-06T04:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@GlobalStockPick @MikeFritzell The "cheapest" option: McDonalds $17 for a burger fries and a drink. US GDP per capita is 76K. If the avg American ate one of these every day it'd be 8% of their pre-tax income"
X Link 2024-05-06T07:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@scocap7 SZ property is the most entertaining thing ever. Highly recommend looking into Nam Tai Property. Not for investment just for entertainment"
X Link 2024-05-08T05:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$2360.hk Best Mart 360's Foodville in Ma On Shan on Thursday [--] PM. Busy Wine like in the normal store is right in front. My pick is Egidio Barbera D'alba for $55 HKD ($7 USD). Much of the same selection as the normal Best Mart [---] with more well known brands like Trimbach"
X Link 2024-05-09T06:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Daily levered ETF bear case (one day up one day down): (1+xr)(1-xr)=1-(xr)2 Bull case (two days up): (1+xr)2 Generalized form is (1+xr1)(1+xr2).(1+xrn) x is the leverage factor rn is the rate of return on day n. Volatility drag goes both ways. Bought a tiny bit of $YINN"
X Link 2024-05-16T06:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"As a non-home owner I am thankful there are people who are willing to rent a home to me at yields way below the cost of capital. Was looking in Drake's neighborhood in Toronto. I can be Drake's neighbor for 1.7% yield and put my money to work at higher yields. It's fantastic Dear millennials and gen z were never going to experience home ownership https://t.co/uoOPW9J7oF Dear millennials and gen z were never going to experience home ownership https://t.co/uoOPW9J7oF"
X Link 2024-05-16T06:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@LukeWolgram Fellow Canadian here: HK is actually kind of small. HK's about 7M. Shanghai is 26M Greater Tokyo is 40M CDMX is 23M. The feel is not hectic at all though I'd say the north feels like a similar pace as downtown area in Vancouver/Toronto"
X Link 2024-05-18T04:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@sloth_investor @LukeWolgram It used to be real estate was expensive compared to Canada. These days Toronto/Vancouver real estate is about the same as HK these days. (I did the math and chose HK over Toronto in 2023.)"
X Link 2024-05-18T04:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Canadian's take on China's housing oversupply: China has a better problem to solve than we do. Housing oversupply is bad for investors but good for citizens. It is harder to ramp up a homebuilding machine amid high rates/inflation than ramp down as shown in low housing starts. I think that for the next [--] years in Canada the big challenge will be to cope with this housing shortage that we have And it will take several years to alleviate pressure on the housing market given this population boom over two years. $AEP.V https://t.co/YSSLyBIcJa I think that for the next [--] years in Canada the big"
X Link 2024-05-18T04:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@InvestmentTalkk Met Zuck when FB was in a building on Stanford's campus. He is smart his org is awful. Used to get Sheryl's mail from FB's old office on Emerson in Palo Alto. Know [--] employees so I'd argue I have more access than most do. Would not sleep well with money in $META"
X Link 2024-05-18T18:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@InvestmentTalkk Also images to video and web to mobile really aren't hard. From an eng view they are very straightforward. Look at the execution of Portal etc. There is a reason they pay top of market. You'd have to be crazy otherwise to work at Meta. http://Internet.org http://Internet.org"
X Link 2024-05-18T18:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Postgres good architecture and pg_tgrm indices pretty much renders most database products moot. That said many teams will get further with $MDB $ESTC $SNOW etc. because many engineers can't code their way out of a paper bag. got kicked out of the tiger global dinner last night for making a scene about how postgres is usually fine for almost every case after seeing the drink menu https://t.co/JKNF7C3NaZ got kicked out of the tiger global dinner last night for making a scene about how postgres is usually fine for almost every case after seeing the drink menu https://t.co/JKNF7C3NaZ"
X Link 2024-05-19T14:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@MikeFritzell Woah. Geopolitics but also lifestyle"
X Link 2024-05-19T14:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@MikeFritzell Anecdotally I lose weight stuffing my face in HK/Europe and gain weight starving in Canada/US. There definitely is something weird about the North American food supply chain"
X Link 2024-05-19T14:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@ArneUlland @DN_no Great companies That said why $UNH over $HUM"
X Link 2024-05-20T11:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@hurdle_rate 10Y DCFs at 5%/15x growth/terminal multiple 15%/20x 25%/30x at a 9.6% discount rate are $3 [--] [--]. Pretty high variance of outcomes. That said anyone who has bet against $V $COST $CSU.TO etc. has been wrong for a very long time. Time will tell"
X Link 2024-05-21T06:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Sold $TOI.V in Feb at $116. Organic growth is probably harder than M&A. It was at a higher valuation than $CSU.TO despite having trouble deploying capital w/ low base. Robin taking another CEO/Chairman role. Just doesn't feel as serious as the mothership"
X Link 2024-05-24T12:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@InvestmentTalkk Note how the graph ends at [----] two years ago"
X Link 2024-05-29T12:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@ObscurValuation The annual report is pretty fun to read. 20.9% APR is kind of insane"
X Link 2024-05-30T13:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@YouScareMeToo @netcapgirl Eh it's like SQL but written by people who have no idea what they're doing. Also $MDB used to drop data all the time when they first came out which seems to be the opposite of what a database is supposed to do"
X Link 2024-05-31T02:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@marketplunger1 Might want to check out this small unknown stock called Constellation Software trading at a mere 50x. Kidding definitely a lot of interesting stuff out there"
X Link 2024-05-31T16:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@sunchartist True. That said traveled for a year in [----]. Mendoza NYC Edinburgh Tokyo there is literally no country or place that hasn't had a lowering of standard of living on average. Sure we can pick on HK. But the quality of life in HK is leaps and bounds ahead of say NYC"
X Link 2024-06-02T03:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Started eng before $AMZN AWS existed. Looked at $NET. Some flaws in architecture (worker dependence on V8). $NET's offering remind me of how AWS first felt like amid an age of on prem/Sybase/Oracle/etc. Simple not full featured gets you 90% of the way there not many knobs"
X Link 2024-06-02T18:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"CLSA has $66.hk trading at NTM 7x. Monopoly at a good valuation with real estate upside optionality. There's an argument to buy RE stocks in HK. However with debt high there is div cut risk you might not be paid to wait holders could be stuck. MTR seems like a safer RE play. https://t.co/ZQxGSZM8fB https://t.co/ZQxGSZM8fB"
X Link 2024-06-10T02:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Bearish $BKNG experience: reception said they cannot charge @bookingcom for the room so I cannot check in. Called customer service. CS says it is my fault for not paying enough money. I explain to CS chooses the amount I pay and it's via an app. http://Booking.com http://Booking.com"
X Link 2024-06-14T01:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@DaBao_ @1lemonaday @taranvirkaonke Eh I don't know. Speaking as a Canadian crappy government + low taxes is better than crappy government + VERY high taxes. In some cases you can pay more than 50% in income tax in Canada and the quality of life is much worse than before"
X Link 2024-06-17T12:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@quantian1 @BoomerDivvies It's not even a brunello or barbaresco Mind you this is Vancouver where alcohol is way more expensive than in the US"
X Link 2024-06-20T05:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Friend of mine went to $NVDA right after school and never left. I started [--] companies struggled a lot lived with [--] roommates tried to get by on $2 a day with my wife burnt out many times. I had fun but I do think about how much @paulg's startup essays are probs BS. If you joined Nvidia [--] years ago as a mid-level product manager with an annual $70K stock grant over [--] years just that initial grant would be worth $10.6M today. If you joined Nvidia [--] years ago as a mid-level product manager with an annual $70K stock grant over [--] years just that initial grant would be worth $10.6M today"
X Link 2024-06-20T14:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@PythiaR $AMZN $COST $WMT $MSFT back in the day Scaled homebuilders like $DHI $LEN $NVR. The list goes on. Advantaged cost structure is a pretty great moat"
X Link 2024-06-20T17:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Counted [--] acquisitions this quarter by $CSU.TO thus far. Zero by Volaris which is normally a machine. Feels like a light quarter. That said Ezy Systems is sexy. Look at this beast. Probably originally written before Microsoft's WinForms/WPF APIs"
X Link 2024-06-21T15:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@ricgnzlzcr @bizalmanac @NicoperJES TruBridge raised the threshold to 15% multiple parties involved. I think since $CSU.TO has a halo effect $PNP.TO tends to get some level of visibility so it's not hard to imagine others like Cove Street Capital get involved"
X Link 2024-06-29T14:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I'm embarrassed to say I have no idea who Richard Dennis is. Presumably this is a better outcome than Buffett et al. While were reviewing our [----] performance its always good to check in with the outperformers of the past. Not only did these individuals outperform most of them did so for an extended period. And with various approaches 😎 (Source: Excess Returns Vanhaverbeke) https://t.co/UAXGCsq9dA While were reviewing our [----] performance its always good to check in with the outperformers of the past. Not only did these individuals outperform most of them did so for an extended period. And"
X Link 2024-06-30T00:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Probably wouldn't happen in Japan Korea etc. Visited NYC for a few days. My pregnant wife was bumped by homeless teenagers attempted to rob us in a parking lot. Who needs the noise Asia is where it's at. Retail is uninvestable Restaurants also becoming uninvestable and now cruises too $CCL $CUK https://t.co/kamQM08IZA Retail is uninvestable Restaurants also becoming uninvestable and now cruises too $CCL $CUK https://t.co/kamQM08IZA"
X Link 2024-06-30T12:10Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@ValuePraya Maybe it makes the US more investable since they need to spend more on security/enforcement like on $AXON Also customers with means might spend more to avoid being with less affluent customers"
X Link 2024-06-30T12:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Good update by Cairn Homes $CRN.L today. Affirmed guidance to 30% growth 45M euro buyback program dividends trading at 8.82x NTM. Most housing markets are showing warning signs. Lower risk here as Irish state is using a budget surplus to subsidise the housing industry"
X Link 2024-07-03T13:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@NotMarkLeonard Yeah it is kind of hilarious that there are a bajillion VMS software companies in the $CSU.TO family that compete and don't work together at all. I'm super curious how this all pans out"
X Link 2024-07-03T18:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$CSU.TO's Perseus site is down. Volaris creating Omegro. Fog merging NedGraphics/Optitex. Feels like changes are coming. Maybe more centralisation. Strikes me as funny that there are many competitors under the same $CSU.TO umbrella"
X Link 2024-07-05T20:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Long term I imagine $DHI $LEN $NVR $PSN.L $BDEV.L etc. do well. But in the current turbulent environment $CRN.L is where I want to be. The Irish are running a budget surplus so they are using those dollars to solve/subsidise a huge voter issue: housing"
X Link 2024-07-06T03:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@ClarkSquareCap $CRN.L Irish homebuilder trading at NTM 8.82x growing at 30%. Irish government who is running a surplus is subsidising homebuilding mitigating interest rate fears. Decade+ under supply buybacks dividends valuation regulatory capture momentum the setup has it all"
X Link 2024-07-09T23:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"$CSU.TO Jonas division Cora Group buys Carlson Marketing Loyalty Platform from $AIM.TO. Aimia has to be one of the funniest stories in business. Up there with Biglari $BH. https://www.thecoragroup.com/media/cora-group-announces-acquisition-carlson-marketing-loyalty-platform-from-kognitiv https://www.thecoragroup.com/media/cora-group-announces-acquisition-carlson-marketing-loyalty-platform-from-kognitiv"
X Link 2024-07-10T16:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@ObscurValuation Hah I don't know $CSU.TO's track record at fixing companies is literally in the hundreds of companies. Reverse DCF at 9.6% discount rate gives 15% CAGR. Definitely not a cheap valuation but I don't think the $CSU.TO machine has stalled yet (I check almost every day)"
X Link 2024-07-10T16:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Source By comparison Toronto's Eg extension was conceived in [----] first phase costed 73B HKD (second 27B) and is still not open. https://www.mtr.com.hk/archive/corporate/en/investor/pre_blackout_202407.pdf https://www.mtr.com.hk/archive/corporate/en/investor/pre_blackout_202407.pdf"
X Link 2024-07-10T17:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@phil_hk No New World 🤣 Been racking my brain about whether this is a generational opportunity or not"
X Link 2024-07-10T21:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"If rates are lowering hard to imagine a more direct play than REITs or long duration bonds"
X Link 2024-07-12T02:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$DHI reports on Thursday (Jul 18). Quite the run up as of late amid rising inventory and competing existing home sales. Last year's results were quite poor however so perhaps the bar's not very high"
X Link 2024-07-16T15:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"There are numerous techniques used to avoid $CRWD's fate. Canary releases CI/CD checksums rollbacks etc. To mandate updates to kernel space code remove the ability for customers to opt into releases and BSOD demonstrates extreme egos and incompetence"
X Link 2024-07-20T06:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"The most important factor to decision making in eng orgs is typically how dumb/smart an eng leader looks if they choose a solution. It is akin to a PM choosing an equity that you'd look dumb owning. You'd probably look like a complete idiot if you choose $CRWD tomorrow"
X Link 2024-07-20T06:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@AlphaExponent For the EU to be successful they'd essentially be arguing the way OSes work need to fundamentally change. It's like arguing against water being wet. This issue exists in all OSes regardless of whether it's POSIX compliant BSD based or Windows"
X Link 2024-07-20T06:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@MikeFritzell An aside: saw them all over in Toronto. Completely empty but I had to do a double take as I've never seen them in Canada before"
X Link 2024-07-23T12:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@thinkror At current valuations ($JKS trades at under 4x LTM) I'd take the other side of that argument. Story as old as time. There will be blood and consolidation but that's true of any high growth industry. Was true of mobile social media search etc"
X Link 2024-07-24T06:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"The academic treatment to international investing. Intuitively I'm surprised the ERP for Vietnam is so high. Since the [----] market crisis when I realized that risk premiums change quickly during market crises I have updated ERP for the S&P [---] monthly and written annual updates on equity risk premiums and country risk. My [----] country risk update is here. https://t.co/oRDfumpa1j Since the [----] market crisis when I realized that risk premiums change quickly during market crises I have updated ERP for the S&P [---] monthly and written annual updates on equity risk premiums and country risk. My"
X Link 2024-07-25T00:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Got a son on the way so we're moving and shopping for appliances. Midea $333.sz seems to consistently hit the sweet spot of price/quality. If you're buying other brands in many cases Midea's the underlying manufacturer. Maybe some pain from China's property bust. 🧵Smartkarma #eventdriven #threadoftheday Midea Group (000333 CH): CSRC Approval ✓; IPO Size Will Depend on H-Share Discount Brian Freitas @tradingarb -- $000333.CH 1/ https://t.co/fy3LdZLEEh 🧵Smartkarma #eventdriven #threadoftheday Midea Group (000333 CH): CSRC Approval ✓; IPO Size Will Depend on H-Share Discount Brian Freitas"
X Link 2024-07-25T01:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@1lemonaday At Pavilia Farm it's about 7.3M HKD for a 1BR. The surrounding area's a lot cheaper. It's very convenient the building is brand new. If I was made out of money I'd buy there for sure"
X Link 2024-07-25T08:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@taranvirkaonke It's a cyclical business. I follow homebuilding very closely which is presumably closely tied to consumer confidence economy etc. Most homebuilding markets seem like they're in trouble. So I'm orienting my portfolio towards one that's a more defensive portfolio"
X Link 2024-07-26T01:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@TidefallCapital Sounds great in theory but has never worked in practice. This has been true of nearly every housing market on Earth in the past [--] years"
X Link 2024-07-27T11:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@TidefallCapital $NVDA claims a 30x increase for GB200 NVL72 vs H100 for LLM workloads. Given the semi industry's history of self-obsolescence to seems unlikely"
X Link 2024-07-29T01:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@MikeFritzell Embarrassingly I do miss this version of the Internet heh"
X Link 2024-07-29T03:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$941.hk China Mobile's telecom business is probably a GDP+ business and what's priced in at 10.8x LTM. 2023's cloud rev is 83.3B RMB and appears to be ramping up since [----]. The setup appears to be 6.5% div + EPS growth at GDP (+ GDP buffer) + option from cloud et al"
X Link 2024-08-01T03:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Contrasted against $BABA's paltry 3% YoY growth it does appear China Mobile's likely going to eat Alibaba's lunch. The cloud option doesn't appear to be priced in. If cloud growth remains at 65.6% (unlikely) this segment of the business equals the telecom business in [--] years"
X Link 2024-08-01T03:28Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Base case looks like a 6.5% div + 4.5% GDP growth = 11%. The bull case could be a [--] bagger. So to me it seems like a reasonable risk/reward. Finally follows the thesis of don't fight the Fed. err. CCP as $941.hk is a SOE"
X Link 2024-08-01T03:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$1523.hk: Moving into a place that doesn't have fiber. The max broadband connection is 100mbps. There is however 5G available from [--] providers that top out at speeds higher than that. Plan might be get two 5G connections get a Peplink MBX mini and bond them"
X Link 2024-08-01T07:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@rationalwalk ETFs are like porn. Something for everyone"
X Link 2024-08-01T15:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"$TOI.V trades at 30.41x FCFA2S nice lift in FCF from previous [----] thanks to a strong Q1. Doesn't appear to be a trend in ramp up in deployment of capital. 📈 Q2 [----] $TOI.V Earnings: -Revenue: 311.2M (+14% YoY) -Net Income: 26.9M (+15% YoY) -CFO: 8.8M (up 24.2M from Q2 2023) -FCFA2S: -3.8M (up 12.8M from Q2 2023) -Acquisitions: 10.3M with deferred payments of 6.3M -Organic growth: +4% Corrected version https://t.co/DTjmGlEDcD 📈 Q2 [----] $TOI.V Earnings: -Revenue: 311.2M (+14% YoY) -Net Income: 26.9M (+15% YoY) -CFO: 8.8M (up 24.2M from Q2 2023) -FCFA2S: -3.8M (up 12.8M from Q2 2023)"
X Link 2024-08-02T03:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@AlvinZh2003 $CSU.TO has negative working capital as customers prepay. Might want to use FCF"
X Link 2024-08-02T03:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@marbel2019 Can Probably. I don't think legacy banks have done a very good job of staying relevant outside of the US"
X Link 2024-08-03T03:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@BuyCheapNPray Spent time at $NVDA / $AVGO. Worked on ASIC eng before realizing I'm better at software. Presumably I have an edge over 99.99% of investors in semis. I have no clue what's going to happen to $INTC. How do you build conviction on betting on something like that"
X Link 2024-08-03T23:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@BuyCheapNPray You can always attach a power drill to the hand grinder and it becomes an electric grinder 🤣"
X Link 2024-08-05T06:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@SebKrog @TrentBlair19 Sure It's an equal weighting of what people were raving about at the time"
X Link 2024-08-06T16:30Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@bizalmanac I'm in the same boat as you normally hate capital raises. Owned $CHG.DE some time ago got spooked sold and just watched. Saw that at least numerically they had deployed the capital reasonably. It is trading at a reasonably high multiple so for now I'm good with it"
X Link 2024-08-07T12:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$941.hk China Mobile results out. H1 [----] Div: $2.6 HKD/sh OpInc: 546.7B RMB Profit: 80.2B RMB (+5.3% YoY) FCF: 67.4B Feels nice to own telecom without the EU/US telco dynamics and a hefty dividend"
X Link 2024-08-08T12:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Why $META is giving away LLaMA. The common theories are: scorched earth (free LLMs destroy the ability for closed source LLMs from becoming economically viable) and advertising for talent. My thesis: $GOOG and $META are the [-----] lb gorillas of performance marketing. It takes lots of data man hours etc. to extract a maximal $ per eyeball. If LLMs become pervasive $GOOG loses traffic. Whomever $GOOG loses to will be less competent than $META at performance marketing. AFAIK no LLM even monetises with ads and even if they did it likely reduces the fidelity of the product. Therefore in the"
X Link 2024-08-11T16:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@RhinoInsight Never seen anyone use an AI website builder before. Very cool. A few years ago built a company where one of the core technologies was to crawl the entire English speaking world. Happy to chat if you're looking at automating the ingestion of investment thesis'"
X Link 2024-08-15T08:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$2360.hk Best Mart has a brand new store in Stanley. Seems there's some experimentation as there's freezers fridges and a different inventory to cater to more western tastes. The store is [--] months old which indicates to me the count on the website isn't updated anymore"
X Link 2024-08-17T07:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@adamsoliev For now but always is a long time. I'm an EE by training my career was SE I have worked for $MSFT $AMZN $NVDA etc. on both ASIC and software. There is literally nothing that a human does in the entire value chain that cannot be automated one day"
X Link 2024-08-20T05:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$941.HK China Mobile & other telecom operators hiking divvies as a result of Beijing pressure. Clean balance sheet (esp compared to Euro/US telecom) defensive biz CCP incentives are aligned with shareholders. Don't fight the Fed. err CCP"
X Link 2024-08-21T06:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@MikeFritzell @compoundpapi Andrew's leaving the CEO seat to his own company after basically nearly running it into the ground. He has someone from $CSU.TO or something of the sort fixing the mess. Lots of debt sketchy accounting etc"
X Link 2024-08-21T14:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"All the BTAC whiskies used to be impossible to find and now they're available everywhere. Makes sense I think Buffalo Trace has a new capacity of 100M+ L a year. Also noticed $DEO is pushing their bad whisky in special releases (ie. Lagavulin 12)"
X Link 2024-08-21T17:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Seems likely $MGPI $DEO $BF $RI.PA etc. will continue to do poorly. Many private distillery balance sheets are available on the UK's Companies House website. Given that there are so many new distilleries consolidation seems likely"
X Link 2024-08-21T17:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@donwharton_ss There's a lot of failure in serial acquirers so presumably you do the Munger thing and look for red flags"
X Link 2024-08-22T06:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@SteigerwaldValu Springbank's cash flow statement doesn't seem to be available but I consider Kilchoman a very good whisky. They also harvest the barley on site for their 100% Islay release. If you'll note they had to draw on 5M GBP of loans just to be solvent. Same story across the board"
X Link 2024-08-23T00:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@SteigerwaldValu 💯 also agreed on big co. Feel like $DEO really ruined Lagavulin for me. I do like $LVMH and Beam Suntory ownership though. Feel they have been good stewards"
X Link 2024-08-23T07:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@CacheThatCheque In Quebec obviously normal police require a warrant. But the language police do not. If your workplace isn't French enough (ie. signage keyboards etc.) they will find you. Also they worship Celine Dion. Honestly though Quebecoise food is delicious and unknown to the world"
X Link 2024-08-24T06:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@BuyCheapNPray Out of curiosity what's your [--] year CAGR"
X Link 2024-08-24T08:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@david_katunaric Quite the variance would be interesting to cluster "dogmas" on FinTwit to compare performance. Ie. Canadian $CSU.TO followers vs. net-net investors etc"
X Link 2024-08-25T15:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@phil_hk @RecoveryTrade @MikeFritzell Sorry deleted my post as I'm not 100% sure about the numbers (just started noodling on this) and didn't want to mislead anyone. As for New World yes a lot more levered"
X Link 2024-08-26T09:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@NicoperJES @ricgnzlzcr AKA about the average $CSU.TO margin"
X Link 2024-08-26T15:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@NicoperJES @ricgnzlzcr True but $csu.to has a playbook that has been used literally over a thousand times. You'd have to be a very silly CEO to ignore a major shareholder with the exact intimate knowledge your company needs and the credibility to boot"
X Link 2024-08-27T01:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$2360.hk Best Mart interim results in. Drama CEO arrested. Rev +12.6% NI +10.8% BV +13.9% Interim Div +37.5% ($0.11/sh is 7.1% at today's price) Don't think much has changed but time will tell. Bought a couple of bottles of Boizel for $288 HKD/each to remember good times"
X Link 2024-08-27T13:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@ValuePraya AFAIK he did spend [--] months in jail for selling products that were reminiscent of Burberry"
X Link 2024-08-27T13:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Has anyone else noticed a decline in Apple product quality Bought a fully loaded M2 Air last year. Just after the warranty expired last month the screen needs a $500 USD replacement. Return search vol seems to have increased relative to Apple search vol"
X Link 2024-08-28T06:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@MikeFritzell I wonder if any of those management teams took it to Nvidia's level and also got the tattoo hah"
X Link 2024-08-28T07:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@1lemonaday Yah I'm thinking they don't deserve that 46% gross margin if they're not delivering at the level they used to"
X Link 2024-08-28T07:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@1lemonaday @signalapp Oh you've read "Programming on the Potty" The ones I read were mostly very technical. How to think about anonymization using elliptical encryption. Nothing about the philosophy of privacy"
X Link 2024-08-28T12:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@TechFundies MDB is a B tree with a dumb query language made popular by JS engineers who can't code their way out of a paper bag. Anybody arguing MDB can do anything PG can't has no idea what they're talking about. Try doing a table/document join on MDB at scale"
X Link 2024-08-30T04:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@NotMarkLeonard I mean this is true. It's already happened. Doesn't mean $CSU.TO isn't still a great opportunity but I don't think the companies they are acquiring today are the same quality as the first cohorts"
X Link 2024-09-03T02:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@NotMarkLeonard Yeah I think IRR you are probably right. And likely the diversification you get from CSU's huge number of companies will "blend" any lumpiness. But I do also think PerfectApps acq by Harris last quarter is kind of a shitty business"
X Link 2024-09-03T02:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$CRN.L +67% rev +140% eps +107% opinc. Cairn is one of Ireland's largest home builders. Ireland's budget surplus is helps solve problems for the people"
X Link 2024-09-04T07:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@AlphaExponent @MikeFritzell Yeah not sure what $INTC was thinking re: Bob Swan. Semiconductors are a forever bloodbath with some of the smartest people on Earth operating on the absolute bleeding edge. Hindsight is 20/20 but going to an eng war with a bean counter as CEO seems silly"
X Link 2024-09-05T12:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@ReturnsJourney @alchemy_invest People have been saying that for years. What's different this time"
X Link 2024-09-10T06:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@ReturnsJourney @alchemy_invest Sure but not the first time it's been at this valuation. The last time $CSU.TO was this expensive was in [----]. It has since 3x'd. The number of acquisitions has also ramped up"
X Link 2024-09-10T08:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Liftthatbid Seriously $CSU.TO is trading at like a multiple of a bajillion too Just a bunch of shitcos"
X Link 2024-09-14T09:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Masi_capital @Liftthatbid I view org growth IRR and quality all very differently. I'm comfortable with "medium" quality. you'd have to be to own $CSU.TO. $CHG.DE isn't just VMS they own schools industrial cos etc. Easy enough to estimate IRR"
X Link 2024-09-14T13:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@3Plantey2 @Liftthatbid I was being sarcastic. $CSU.TO has a lot of not-amazing companies but it doesn't mean they aren't good investments"
X Link 2024-09-14T16:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$MCO at 47x. $AAPL at 34x. Another old guard value investor (Francis Chou) joins the GARP side of the force"
X Link 2024-09-14T16:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Peplink router wifi network by Plover Bay $1523.hk on the MTR"
X Link 2024-09-15T04:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@MikeFritzell Wait they go up I thought they can only go down"
X Link 2024-09-16T13:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@MikeFritzell @phil_hk Hysan's deck"
X Link 2024-09-17T05:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Pulled [--] week data for all equities listed on the HKEX. Lots of outliers so limited it to 300% returns. Histogram and scatterplot vs. dividend yield"
X Link 2024-09-17T07:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Spent some time in Argentina [--] years ago. Went to a winery in Mendoza. [--] course dinner with spectacular pairings ($300/pp in NYC) was $40 USD/pp. Today it's $200 USD. Used to carry piles of cash feeling like the monopoly man. I think/hope Milei is on the right track"
X Link 2024-09-22T15:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Jam_invest Yeah for sure Been also thinking maybe it's time to visit Turkey while Erdogan is still in power"
X Link 2024-09-22T17:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@RhinoInsight @MikeFritzell Please ignore my ignorance but didn't Germany invade Poland first Why would fear in Britain cause Germany to invade a neighbor"
X Link 2024-09-25T09:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@MikeFritzell Whenever I need a reminder on how important it is to do my own work I read a VIC post on something in tech. It is so painful how clueless some VIC posters are. https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/ELASTIC_NV/4278264407 https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/ELASTIC_NV/4278264407"
X Link 2024-09-26T09:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@MikeFritzell Nah you do amazing work I'm sure if you did put out a tech pitch it would be way more informed. The author of the $ESTC pitch doesn't seem to what anything actually is"
X Link 2024-09-26T10:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I am sure Adrian was brought up with caring parents who wanted the best for him and gave him the world. However there are way too many idiot children of rich people. I have a son coming in a few weeks and frankly I think about this every day. That said K11 is beautiful"
X Link 2024-09-27T04:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Shortage of bourbon casks is due to the increased # of Scotch distilleries coming online. This will cause a change in taste profile because distilleries are scrambling to get what they can get. The distillery founder I talked to sourced from a lesser known non-KY producer. 2/n"
X Link 2024-09-28T19:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"This advantages players like Beam Suntory who own the producer and consumer of bourbon casks. Overall it is an exciting time to be a consumer of whisky as whisky prices are coming down there is such diversity and lots of new whisky coming out. 3/n"
X Link 2024-09-28T19:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"India is a potentially huge market for premium whisky. Indian government is protectionist local distilleries like Amrut are best positioned. Chinese demand has fallen off a cliff. Tariffs are also a huge concern as Trump may renew a fight against Scotch distillers. 4/n"
X Link 2024-09-28T19:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@SteigerwaldValu @Govro12 @Sutjeinvestor It depends. If it's $DEO where they don't care where the whisky ages sure that's true (though it's still cap/opex). Where the maturation happens matters as the whisky takes on the character of the environment. (Jefferson's Ocean went as far as to age whisky on ships.)"
X Link 2024-09-30T02:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@bizalmanac The recent $TOI.V thesis revolves around how impactful the Primeur acquisition is and how much capital was deployed. If you look at the size (400) and $/employee deployed it's quite a bit larger than normal"
X Link 2024-10-01T04:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@Masi_capital @bizalmanac I really like Nyland but don't like the sector focus and don't have an opinion on the valuation other than you have to answer some hard questions at that valuation. Unfortunately I don't know enough about telecom"
X Link 2024-10-01T04:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@ArSaints89 Mostly from purchases took me a while to build the position. @NicoperJES has a pretty reasonable writeup. To that writeup I'd add $CSU.TO historically gets to 15% op margin there's been a cash/legacy drag so the CAGR going forward is higher $PNP.TO has had 9+ buyout offers"
X Link 2024-10-01T09:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@MikeFritzell True but when $META was trading at $90 thought I must be wrong because it's a large cap. I met Zuck used to get Sheryl's mail knew a ton of people there knew who was sleeping with who formative years of my career were blocks from FB campus etc. Still regret not buying"
X Link 2024-10-01T09:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@bizalmanac Definitely tough. Also yeah 100% re: $LVMH. Visited Ardbeg and felt it was definitely an order of magnitude run more sustainably than the $DEO names"
X Link 2024-10-02T17:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Platforms tend to beat individual providers $UBER"
X Link 2024-10-06T03:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@DaBao_ @pandawatch88 The joys of investing in HK hahaha"
X Link 2024-10-06T09:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

""US equity markets expensive compared to intl" vs. "US equity markets boast global taxes on search laptops phones video etc.""
X Link 2024-10-06T12:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Well deserved Nobel prize to British Canadian Geoff Hinton. His work is the foundation for the AI boom we see today"
X Link 2024-10-09T04:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Akre's still invested ideas he had decades ago. I wonder as a % of investors how many know an investment as well as Akre knows $AMT. What a legend. 'Performance for the trailing 12-month period ending September [--] [----] for the Institutional share class was 38.60% compared with 36.35% for the S&P [---] Total Return.' AKRE CAPITAL Q3 Letter https://t.co/pMTiKERLl6 https://t.co/XFUwcJDzIy 'Performance for the trailing 12-month period ending September [--] [----] for the Institutional share class was 38.60% compared with 36.35% for the S&P [---] Total Return.' AKRE CAPITAL Q3 Letter"
X Link 2024-10-11T07:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@Invesquotes @JerryCap Then you should sell $csu.to"
X Link 2024-10-12T14:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@MikeFritzell $MCO in [----] was a pretty gutsy and correct call https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/Moodys/9650367040 https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/Moodys/9650367040"
X Link 2024-10-14T07:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Link: https://www.instagram.com/p/DBG-vLwNFkz/ https://www.instagram.com/p/DBG-vLwNFkz/"
X Link 2024-10-16T16:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@MikeFritzell Saw a bottle of Mitsui whisky selling for $400 HKD ($50 USD) at Best Mart I used to buy them in the US for $100-$150"
X Link 2024-10-17T07:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"My $MDB feelings exactly. Back then the JS community started to do the same (reinvent the wheel but worse) with make et al. Grunt Gulp etc. Felt like a bunch of toddlers following a bunch of other toddlers. Today $MDB is a 20B business for people who can't code. Human evolution reached its peak at SQL with WHERE age = [--] OR name NOT IN "arthur" "marvin" and then MongoDB came in and sent us back to the stone age with $or: age: $gte: [--] name: $nin: "arthur" "marvin" Human evolution reached its peak at SQL with WHERE age = [--] OR name NOT IN "arthur" "marvin" and then MongoDB came in and sent us"
X Link 2024-10-20T03:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$759.hk has an emphasis on Asian alcohol as well as Spanish/SA wine. Couldn't find anything stellar. Much smaller inventory of alcohol than $2360.hk and higher prices. I saw one wine that was carried at Best Mart (one of the few French wines) but was 3x the price"
X Link 2024-10-21T07:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@MikeFritzell Yeah there's actually no real wine aisle or anything. They just jam it all up there"
X Link 2024-10-21T07:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@smartkarma @GlobalStockPick If they charged anywhere near what they could charge it'd likely be a multibagger. That stroller was $500 HKD"
X Link 2024-10-21T15:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@ReturnsJourney I'm an electrical engineer but have dabbled in molecular bio. I don't like $SDI's subs. I can start an electrophoresis or fume hoods business with a few thousand in startup capital. I don't see SDI's subs as being particularly defensible"
X Link 2024-10-22T07:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@longriver_hk Nice writeup If only we could issue JPY bonds and buy it with debt"
X Link 2024-10-22T09:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$BRK.A bought $HEI.A in Q2. I regret not looking closer"
X Link 2024-10-23T02:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@GlobalStockPick One of my wife's friends sells options on $TSLA for a living. He is a CFP. Thinks I am retarded for thinking value investing is good investing. These are the people on the other side"
X Link 2024-10-24T13:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@MikeFritzell @marketplunger1 @marketplunger1 Understanding $PTON means calculating CAC & LTV per cohort as well as where spend goes. Users who subscribed during COVID are not equal to the users who subscribed before/after. Feel free to DM if you want an in depth walk through"
X Link 2024-10-25T04:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@bizalmanac Also likely headwinds from a organic perspective as we're not in a crazy inflationary period anymore. That said capital deployment as of late has been stellar. I tend to look at DCFs for $CSU.TO family as high growth implies majority of value is in the future"
X Link 2024-10-25T04:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@MikeFritzell Yeah if taking a job it really is hard to beat an American salary/work culture. But I mean everywhere has a game that can be optimally played. If I were Japanese with a JPY cost of capital I'd be happy to play that hand for example"
X Link 2024-10-25T07:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Have a [--] bps position in $JKS. Hard industry. I suspect what happens next is what's happened in every other bloodbath. Companies die the industry consolidates eventually a forever war reaches a more sustainable pace. Really love what solar does to net load/pricing"
X Link 2024-10-28T16:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@compoundersEX @MikeFritzell High pressure rice cookers do a more even cook. That said would recommend if you're looking for something not so crazy https://thebestshop.ca/ https://thebestshop.ca/"
X Link 2024-10-29T05:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@Govro12 On the high end I think third wave coffee might have taken over. It is to $SBUX was $SBUX was to Dunkin Donuts et al. As for the low end consumer are they beating the convenience of Keurig/Nespresso A lot of pressure from all ends of the spectrum"
X Link 2024-10-31T14:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@danielgladis $BRK.B might be a little too complicated to use a multiple. Fair value accounting on minority holdings equity/consolidation on internal holdings. Probably have to normalize somehow"
X Link 2024-11-05T02:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@rev_cap Basically deteriorating ops in subs"
X Link 2024-11-05T02:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@freeredpill"
X Link 2024-11-05T16:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"$TBRG trades at 0.6x rev mostly a margin recovery story. Previous weakness in financial controls. $PNP.TO holding. TruBridge Announces Third Quarter [----] Results $TBRG https://t.co/VLcjyHhQdT TruBridge Announces Third Quarter [----] Results $TBRG https://t.co/VLcjyHhQdT"
X Link 2024-11-08T01:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@aliassad_ Depends on your view of management's competence what @Keir_Starmer does etc. Not exactly an easy housing market"
X Link 2024-11-08T10:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"You can buy a [--] year calvados for [---] euro that is arguably one of the best things a human can experience. In the whisky world that would be thousands of euro. Unfortunately calvados isn't particularly popular so there aren't many producers. I hope that industry sticks around. CHINA MOFCOM: EU-ORIGIN BRANDY IMPORTS FOUND TO BE DUMPED THREATENING DOMESTIC INDUSTRY WITH SUBSTANTIAL HARM REQUIRED TO PROVIDE RELEVANT DEPOSIT OR GUARANTEE LETTER. CHINA MOFCOM: EU-ORIGIN BRANDY IMPORTS FOUND TO BE DUMPED THREATENING DOMESTIC INDUSTRY WITH SUBSTANTIAL HARM REQUIRED TO PROVIDE RELEVANT DEPOSIT OR"
X Link 2024-11-11T07:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@MikeFritzell That said that chart is mildly terrifying"
X Link 2024-11-11T11:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@MikeFritzell Might be biased among value investors as the dorky gold color Toyota Corolla is the GOAT"
X Link 2024-11-13T05:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@MikeFritzell Michael for president 😂"
X Link 2024-11-13T06:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@longriver_hk Weather is one of the famous examples of inputs to quant systems. I wonder if today has thrown any algos off whack since it's the first"
X Link 2024-11-14T03:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@BerkelKip @hurdle_rate Makes you wonder about $MKL and $KPG.AX hah"
X Link 2024-11-17T07:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@AlphaExponent That's a good point. Probably some generational wealth transfer as well. Maybe HK is just further along that aging path"
X Link 2024-11-18T05:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"$JDG.L trading update. AIM has to be one of the weirdest exchanges out there. Bid/ask spread makes no sense"
X Link 2024-11-18T08:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@NicoperJES Thought about this a lot. Say you could invest in just the book value holdings of $BRK.B without the operational businesses. Would $BRK.B still demand a premium"
X Link 2024-11-18T16:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Link: via @WSJ https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/building-products-distributor-qxo-makes-bid-for-beacon-roofing-3f8acbb7st=xdfeG6 https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/building-products-distributor-qxo-makes-bid-for-beacon-roofing-3f8acbb7st=xdfeG6"
X Link 2024-11-21T02:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Osti de cris de tabarnak Bonne chance Polivier. I hope we see a fair amount of deregulation. Canada has natural resources land an educated population geographically isolated position etc. Lot of potential that's been squandered thus far. Buckle up if you haven't already https://t.co/ZjT4q3hmwm Buckle up if you haven't already https://t.co/ZjT4q3hmwm"
X Link 2024-11-26T03:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@NicoperJES @NotMarkLeonard @MichaelGielkens @surfing_silence It's an unclaimed LI page so not sure we can rely on that info. Seems like they have been restructuring their family office entities. The incorporation date of the 2nd entity coincides with Damien's start at Pinetree"
X Link 2024-11-28T13:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"@NicoperJES @NotMarkLeonard @MichaelGielkens @surfing_silence My guess is Damien got a piece of the pie until he proved himself worthy"
X Link 2024-11-28T13:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

"@NicoperJES What do you think $PNP.TO's BV will be in [--] years"
X Link 2024-11-29T15:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Few more ways to think through $PNP.TO besides BV BV - (salaries + Shazad's performance fee + .) Pinetree at the SOTP of holdings at intrinsic value (ie. the upper bound of current holdings) IRR = (Future BVPS / Current Price) (1 / Years) Investing in Pinetree at this price means assuming a "margin of danger". Opposite to investing safety requirement. It is not a good short but expectations priced in are high. Like investing in Topicus in October [----] (go look at the price chart calculate IRR since) $PNP.TO Investing in Pinetree at this price means assuming a "margin of danger". Opposite to"
X Link 2024-11-29T15:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"@NicoperJES 2(1/10)-1=7% but I'd be very surprised if in [--] years we've got $23/share. If that's your guess then you're 100% right to think there is the opposite of margin of safety Would you be interested in selling me a European call option at a $23 strike price for [--] years"
X Link 2024-11-29T15:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Stopped posting on $PNP.TO because it's illiquid and has moved in a way that seems perhaps unhealthy. However since others are I guess I will as well CFO John Bouffard's been quietly accumulating shares"
X Link 2024-11-30T02:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Historical forward PE & Mark's memo in year [----]. AFAIK nobody is making money on AI but the tool makers"
X Link 2024-12-04T13:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Memo: Morgan Stanley's Guide to the Markets: https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/ https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2000-01-02-bubble.pdf https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/ https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/2000-01-02-bubble.pdf"
X Link 2024-12-04T13:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"If you can't beat them join them. JHC $1373.hk seems to be taking a page out of the Best Mart $2360.hk playbook"
X Link 2024-12-07T04:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

Topic Creators

https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/topic/:topic/creators/v1

Get the top creators for a social topic

input parameters:

Example request:

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer <API_KEY>" https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/topic/bitcoin/creators/v1

Example response:

{
  "data": [
    {
      "creator_id": "twitter::1605310254085980161",
      "creator_name": "Bitcoin_Teddy",
      "creator_avatar": "https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1739753415134138368/FrWHMAnb_200x200.jpg",
      "creator_followers": 74293,
      "creator_rank": 1,
      "interactions_24h": [-------]
    }
  ]
}

Schema:

Creators List

https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/creators/list/v1

Get a list of trending social creators over all of social based on interactions. To get lists of creators by category or topic see the topics and categories endpoints.

Example request:

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer <API_KEY>" https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/creators/list/v1

Example response:

{
  "data": [
    {
      "creator_name": "elonmusk",
      "creator_display_name": "Elon Musk",
      "creator_id": "44196397",
      "creator_network": "twitter",
      "creator_avatar": "https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2008546467615580160/57KcqsTA_200x200.jpg",
      "creator_followers": 234295750,
      "creator_posts": 3649,
      "creator_rank": 1,
      "interactions_24h": [---------]
    }
  ]
}

Schema:

Creator

https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/creator/:network/:id/v1

Get detail information on a specific creator

input parameters:

Example request:

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer <API_KEY>" https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/creator/twitter/elonmusk/v1

Example response:

{
  "data": {
    "creator_id": "twitter::44196397",
    "creator_name": "elonmusk",
    "creator_display_name": "Elon Musk",
    "creator_avatar": "https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2008546467615580160/57KcqsTA_200x200.jpg",
    "creator_followers": 234296337,
    "creator_rank": 2,
    "interactions_24h": 318539577,
    "topic_influence": [
      {
        "topic": "in the",
        "count": 294,
        "percent": 5.88,
        "rank": [--]
      }
    ],
    "top_community": [
      {
        "creator_name": "grok",
        "creator_display_name": "Grok",
        "creator_avatar": "https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1893219113717342208/Vgg2hEPa_200x200.jpg",
        "count": [---]
      }
    ]
  }
}

Schema:

Creator Time Series

https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/creator/:network/:id/time-series/v1

Get time series data on a creator.

input parameters:

Example request:

curl -H "Authorization: Bearer <API_KEY>" https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/creator/twitter/lunarcrush/time-series/v1

Example response:

{
  "config": {
    "network": "twitter",
    "influencer_id": "twitter::988992203568562176",
    "interval": "1w",
    "start": 1769990400,
    "end": 1770681600,
    "bucket": "hour",
    "name": "lunarcrush",
    "remote_api": "danode1-13",
    "generated": [----------]
  },
  "data": [
    {
      "time": 1769990400,
      "followers": 305326,
      "interactions": 717,
      "posts_active": 14,
      "creator_rank": [------]
    }
  ]
}

Schema:

Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing