@AKL_019 R
R posts on X about $baba, baba, ai, alibaba the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [-----] #
- [--] Week [------] +108%
- [--] Month [------] -99%
- [--] Months [----------] +4,752%
- [--] Year [----------] -83%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] +39%
- [--] Month [---] -14%
- [--] Months [---] +1,195%
- [--] Year [---] +10,580%
Followers: [---] #
- [--] Week [---] +8.80%
- [--] Month [---] +26%
- [--] Months [---] +1,300%
CreatorRank: [---------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence technology brands 54.39% stocks 34.21% finance 11.4% countries 8.77% social networks 7.02% fashion brands 1.75% travel destinations 0.88% automotive brands 0.88% products 0.88%
Social topic influence $baba #47, baba #2314, ai 17.54%, alibaba #520, tencent #318, meituan #4, business 12.28%, huawei 11.4%, alibaba cloud #20, cloud #251
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @pandawatch88 @drewcohenmoney @aceboy8844 @valueplayer8 @0yqxing @longriverhk @joysiyang @sandbrandyn @joecool20250204
Top assets mentioned Alibaba Group (BABA) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Interesting rumour on SnowBall. This guy is speculating that $BABA match fixed Qwen over the last two quarters to make Alibaba Cloud customers Minimax and Kimi look better and help them to raise funds. He believes that the upcoming Qwen3.5 model could be a game changer"
X Link 2026-02-08T04:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"According to Omdia Alibaba Cloud held a 36% market share in Q3 [----] followed by Huawei Cloud (16%) and Tencent Cloud (9%). Alibaba Cloud market share increased from 34% in Q2 [----]. Q4 [----] is likely to be another quarter in which Alibaba Cloud gained market share"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@pandawatch88 @DrewCohenMoney [--]. A wave of SOEs have been moving to Alibaba Cloud and/or adopting its AI tools plus $BABA has also invested in AI startups in exchange for compute credits so these are driving market share gains for Alibaba Cloud currently"
X Link 2026-02-11T12:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"As expected $BABA is ramping up its efforts in travel and tourism as part of its initiative to create the worlds first all-in-one integrated consumption platform. Today they announced that consumers can receive a discount when ordering tickets via the Qianwen AI chatbot"
X Link 2026-02-11T12:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$BABA Update: [--]. In the food delivery sector $BABA has now overtaken Meituan by a large margin in terms of low-price orders. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/68ewL2yZGgt0dupN5HLfMg https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/68ewL2yZGgt0dupN5HLfMg"
X Link 2026-02-11T13:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"3. Meituan has stopped trying to compete with $BABA in orders below RMB30. The goal for $BABA in [----] is to shift subsidies towards orders above RMB30 in order to deliver a knock-out punch to Meituan (and lead in all price segments)"
X Link 2026-02-11T13:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"3. Net cash is around RMB134 billion. At this rate Meituan will be done for in c. two years but I am not including RMB78 billion of WC payables and RMB12 billion of customer advances and also some cash items are illiquid. So the real run rate could be less than one year"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4. It really seems like the writing is on the wall. Even $JDs peak FCF was only RMB40 billion. Meituan management needs to do the right thing and accept defeat immediately. Theres no point in fighting anymore. Its burning cash that they cant afford to burn"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"RT @pandawatch88: I did a podcast with my pal Graham from Longriver @longriver_hk on China equities: -narratives dramas risks profits -"
X Link 2026-02-14T05:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@valueplayer8 [--]. However it is not only about $BABA at this stage. Quick commerce is a kind of existential threat to $JDs business model which is built on speed"
X Link 2026-02-14T05:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$AMZN cloud revenue was US$129bn in [----] while its chip revenue is on track to reach US$10bn+. Im surprised by how big their chip business is US$10bn is not a small number. For reference $AMD [----] revenue was US$35bn of which US$17bn was from data centres"
X Link 2026-02-15T08:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Incredible. This $JD poster was created using $BABAs Qwen Image model for free by lavon zhang. It looks very good. More images are accessible here: https://chat.qwen.ai/community https://chat.qwen.ai/community"
X Link 2026-02-15T14:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2. Instead of going on WeChat clicking Discover clicking Mini Apps selecting Meituan and then searching for the restaurant you can simply go on Qwen and say I want to order Ralphs Coffee (for example)"
X Link 2026-02-15T14:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"3. The order will be routed through Taobao Shangou so $BABA will still collect a transaction fee. Meituan and $JD on the other hand are looking quite unprepared"
X Link 2026-02-15T14:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4. At a high level I dont think agentic AI is going to replace traditional e-com in the same way that e-com did not replace brick-and-mortar stores. However I think it will still be a meaningful new growth area"
X Link 2026-02-15T14:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@aceboy8844 [--]. The fine itself is really a nothingburger but the market share part is very real. SAMR investigated $BABA for three years until they got satisfied with the market share result"
X Link 2026-01-17T05:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@aceboy8844 [--]. This is just the beginning for $TCOM. If they dont change regulators will keep doubling down and make life difficult for them"
X Link 2026-01-17T05:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@pandawatch88 @aceboy8844 [--]. This is probably why $JD is intermittently relaunching subsidy campaigns which look pointless to outsiders and shareholders. My suspicion is they want Meituan dead and to become the new http://ele.me http://ele.me"
X Link 2026-01-17T10:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@pandawatch88 @aceboy8844 [--]. It is possible that Tencent will buy $TCOMs stake given they own 20% already which brings them to 40%. They may even try to privatise the company"
X Link 2026-01-17T10:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@pandawatch88 @aceboy8844 [--]. This would make perfect sense a low-risk way to add a high margin business unit plus an implementation scenario for their AI solutions (like Qwen and Fliggy). Then the OTA market will have four major players: $TCOM Tencent $BABA and ByteDance plus Meituan and maybe $JD"
X Link 2026-01-17T10:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@pandawatch88 @aceboy8844 [--]. In this scenario I think it would be very challenging for $TCOM to maintain 50% share. There is no way they can win a subsidy war and price-insensitive consumers are only a minority. For reference Tmall + $JD market share is around 40%"
X Link 2026-01-17T10:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1. Here is some more information about $BABAs proprietary AI chips: The key fact for me is that $BABAs PPU reached #2 market share in Chinas domestic AI chip market trailing only Huawei Ascend and ahead of $BIDUs Kunlun (#4). https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OxR1W5e5d9wwi3AJVNSZGg https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OxR1W5e5d9wwi3AJVNSZGg"
X Link 2026-01-29T05:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. I think chips is definitely a nice business to have but on the other hand $BIDUs Robin Li keeps going on about the inverted value pyramid and I think there is some merit to what he says"
X Link 2026-01-30T12:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. Alibaba Cloud and AWS were the earliest to start replacing external chips with proprietary chips but for AWS I think they see it as mostly a cost-saving measure to beat competitors on profit margin. Similar for $GOOG which developed TPUs to make AI inference more economic"
X Link 2026-01-30T13:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. For $BABA especially with the spin out it does imply a broader more comprehensive chip business besides self-use. However I would not be willing to buy now. I think it could be better to wait for the EUV crash similar to buying China Internet after the gov crackdown"
X Link 2026-01-30T13:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2. This is because $NTESs Hong Kong-listed shares now account for over 55% of its total trading value. The timeline for this move could be as early as Q1 [----] (12 months from now). Currently $NTESs FY2026e PE multiple is around 15x which is not expensive"
X Link 2026-02-01T05:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"13. Given this Tencent Games and NetEase Games appear de-risked to me as they have already crossed the Rubicon to become platforms rather than mere game developers"
X Link 2026-02-01T05:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"14. I think $NTES today warrants serious consideration but its current valuation remains challenging to accept"
X Link 2026-02-01T05:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"15. The PE gap between $NTES and Tencent is only around 5x (or less) and this is unlikely to close given Tencents superior business model (WeChat distribution) and higher cash flow visibility in gaming. Maybe HK$160 (c. 12x PE) could make sense as the right entry valuation"
X Link 2026-02-01T05:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"1. $BABA executive forecasts that the average number of daily orders for quick commerce in China will rise from [--] million to [--] million over the next two to three years. This is a rare growth area in the Chinese retail industry and of great strategic importance to incumbents"
X Link 2026-02-05T04:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2. Take Purcotton as an example: consumers now have the option of one-hour delivery instead of 24-48 hours. If you can buy on Taobao and receive your order within an hour why would you buy on $JD or Douyin if delivery takes over [--] hours especially if you need it urgently"
X Link 2026-02-05T04:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@pandawatch88 @DrewCohenMoney [--]. I think @pandawatch88 is mostly correct. Vertical integration can be economically rational in manufacturing lowering COGS and increasing margins but it often isnt in software"
X Link 2026-02-11T12:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 @DrewCohenMoney [--]. For example many Chinese enterprises tried to develop their own internal communication and collaboration app but this was unsuccessful so they now use $BABAs DingTalk or ByteDances Feishu instead which offer a much better result-to-cost ratio"
X Link 2026-02-11T12:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@pandawatch88 @DrewCohenMoney [--]. (1). China has a lot of state-owned enterprises. They prefer private cloud because it seems to comply more readily with data security requirements"
X Link 2026-02-11T12:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 @DrewCohenMoney [--]. In addition SOE officials enjoy the status of being served by vendor teams. Even for simple tasks that one engineer could solve Huawei likes to send dozens of engineers to demonstrate manpower and make the SOE officials feel important"
X Link 2026-02-11T12:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 @DrewCohenMoney [--]. Huawei also gives relationship-building gifts (phones laptops etc.) for free to influence SOE procurement decisions. In contrast $BABA and Tencent do not have a consumer hardware business"
X Link 2026-02-11T12:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 @DrewCohenMoney [--]. (3). Chinese companies in general are obsessed with customisation. This is why SaaS largely failed to take off. They always want a bespoke offering which leads to demand for hybrid and private cloud"
X Link 2026-02-11T12:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 @DrewCohenMoney [--]. However the situation on the ground has been improving for public cloud in recent quarters mainly due to the emergence of AI"
X Link 2026-02-11T12:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 @DrewCohenMoney [--]. Consequently enterprises now prefer cloud-hosted models which are updated in real time. This also creates cross-selling opportunities for storage databases productivity tools and so on. More information here (in Chinese): https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/pvAAwF10vudGhhg99Jzslw https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/pvAAwF10vudGhhg99Jzslw"
X Link 2026-02-11T12:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 @DrewCohenMoney [--]. Regarding $BABA specifically there was a kind of soft ban on Alibaba Cloud due to Jack Ma and the Ant situation. The government wanted to promote Huawei Cloud as a replacement; Huawei specialises in hybrid and private cloud whereas $BABA specialises in public cloud"
X Link 2026-02-11T12:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 @DrewCohenMoney [--]. However the government realised that they had made a mistake because Huawei Cloud has no technology so they now need to rely on Alibaba Cloud in the AI race. Almost every Alibaba Cloud offering is proprietary and world-class if not world-leading"
X Link 2026-02-11T12:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 @DrewCohenMoney [--]. Alibaba Cloud has invested heavily over many years in many areas to differentiate itself by quality and avoid price competition. They are inspired by the Office suite which is expensive but almost impossible for cheap solutions to dislodge"
X Link 2026-02-11T12:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"2. RMB15 billion quarterly loss is RMB60 billion annualised yet they still cannot stop their market share from decreasing both in quick commerce and in in-store"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@0Yqxing Yeah they definitely cannot afford to develop and market their own AI app. Whats more likely to happen is that they connect to Tencents Yuanbao and become an intermediated utility but then Tencent will charge them a traffic fee its an awful situation to be in"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. By the way $BABA is planning a repeat of the [----] summer battle so Q3 [----] could also be very bad depending on how Meituan responds. Regarding the denominator I think in-store EBIT also needs to be adjusted down"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. If Meituan matches ByteDances take rate EBIT will essentially be zeroed out (revenue will halve while costs will remain relatively fixed). If they dont their market share could drop to [--] or even 28"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. Plus $BABA will eventually pivot here as the logical next step. So far they are taking on objectives one-by-one and concentrating their resources instead of spreading themselves too thinly"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. In terms of a sale to ByteDance I think only the delivery infrastructure would be feasible as the in-store business would not pass anti-monopoly review (together they hold close to 100% market share). $BABA could be interested in this asset as well as Meituans OTA assets"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. However Wang Xing is quite stubborn and may choose not to sell and bleed his retail shareholders dry. No institutional buyer is going to come in. It just doesnt make sense to fight against both $BABA and ByteDance especially in food delivery"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2. Even in former Meituan core cities such as Shenzhen (then shareholder Tencents stronghold) the number of orders for drinks such as Mixue is 1-3 times higher for $BABA than for Meituan. This order volume enables $BABA to build and maintain an industry-leading delivery force"
X Link 2026-02-11T13:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1. $NTES: Nomura and other investment banks are speculating that $NTES could apply for a dual-primary listing in Hong Kong which would unlock Southbound inflows and potentially lead to a re-rating of the stock"
X Link 2026-02-01T05:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@pandawatch88 @DrewCohenMoney [--]. For example Alibaba Clouds PolarDB a self-developed cloud database management system is the only Chinese offering ranked in the leader category by Gartner alongside AWS Azure and Google Cloud and is far ahead of Huawei and Tencent"
X Link 2026-02-11T12:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@valueplayer8 [--]. Hi I think at minimum Meituan needs to stop contesting for #1 in food delivery which can set the stage for mutual subsidy withdrawals between Meituan and $BABA"
X Link 2026-02-14T05:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@valueplayer8 [--]. My feeling is $JD will keep going after Meituan even if $BABA stops. Maybe Meituan will need to pull out of the non-perishable goods segment completely or lease their infrastructure to complimentary e-com players like $JD $PDD and ByteDance. There is some uncertainty here"
X Link 2026-02-14T05:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4. $BABA is also strategically expanding into niche quick commerce verticals such as alcohol and medicine which are traditionally dominated by Meituan. Clearly $BABA wants to surpass Meituan in every delivery-related business area and they have a good chance at doing so"
X Link 2026-02-11T13:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1. Meituan profit warning has just been released. Quick maths: Net loss in [----] = RMB23.3 to [----] billion. Profit in H1 [----] = RMB10.4 billion. Net loss in Q3 [----] = RMB18.6 billion. Implied net loss for Q4 [----] = RMB15.1 to [----] billion. The QoQ reduction is very small"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"This is a RedNote survey that started on [--] February [----]. Out of around [----] respondents fewer than 10% use Meituan more frequently than Taobao while 85% use Taobao more frequently than Meituan"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1. I just tried the new Qwen feature in Shenzhen today and my first impression is that this could be pretty disruptive to WeChat Mini Apps"
X Link 2026-02-15T14:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"5. Brick-and-mortar stores allow you to try items before buying them e-commerce allows you to browse a much wider range of products than in offline stores and agentic AI allows you to complete transactions quickly and easily"
X Link 2026-02-15T14:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@joysiyang [--]. However given that ByteDance is a new entrant it is likely that they will take some market share from $TME but the situation should eventually settle at a stable equilibrium with $TME still maintaining significant market share"
X Link 2026-01-17T05:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 @aceboy8844 [--]. For $TCOM the industry economics definitely leans more towards e-com than food delivery which will invite competitors to come in. At the beginning $BABA management thought Douyin was a joke but they are now a real player in e-commerce"
X Link 2026-01-17T10:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@pandawatch88 @aceboy8844 [--]. For my base case I would agree that the Tongcheng stake needs to go. However I dont know if Tongcheng will stay independent"
X Link 2026-01-17T10:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 @aceboy8844 [--]. Now that I think about it there could even be a merger arbitrage opportunity at play for Tongcheng I mean Tencent is pretty rich and this would be a no-brainer deal for them"
X Link 2026-01-17T10:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Tencent Cloud has become the second Chinese cloud service provider to reach breakeven. However it still faces strong competition from Alibaba Cloud and Volcano Engine. Source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ie--qN3i47ms015TdBpkSA https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ie--qN3i47ms015TdBpkSA"
X Link 2026-01-23T14:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. I think there is significant growth potential for Alibaba Cloud and AliExpress overseas. The idea is to offer a similar standard of service to that of Western competitors but at a much lower cost which is a key consideration in price-sensitive markets"
X Link 2026-01-23T14:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"1. At today's annual meeting Pony Ma confirmed that Tencent has fully exited from the food delivery sector and has no plans to invest any more capital in it. Their implied reasoning is that this sector is simply not worthwhile"
X Link 2026-01-26T14:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Two quick updates on Tencents gaming business: [--]. Tencent Games revenue increased by 23% in [----] compared to a 3% increase in the global market. This outpaced the industry by [--] percentage points. [--]. International markets now account for 30% of Tencent Games total revenue"
X Link 2026-01-27T11:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1. This is a timely piece from Bloomberg. In my view the national team selling ETFs alone will not be enough to reverse the momentum in Chinese equities. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-25/china-national-team-s-68-billion-exit-alters-stock-strategies https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-25/china-national-team-s-68-billion-exit-alters-stock-strategies"
X Link 2026-01-27T12:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2. The second point to note is that unlike Huawei and most Chinese peers who pursue fixed-function ASICs $BABA chose a GPGPU architecture. Apparently GPGPU involves using GPU architecture for non-graphics workloads such as AI inferencing"
X Link 2026-01-29T05:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"3. I think $BABA should also work on developing ASICs concurrently which can theoretically deliver cheaper costs per token for a fixed task"
X Link 2026-01-29T05:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1. Chinas domestic cloud computing sector experienced a rapid turnaround in [----] largely thanks to the AI boom. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/pvAAwF10vudGhhg99Jzslwpoc_token=HP5Se2mjAS5zVNoWEd4jN0VnVq-vOcuODL5b2UY5 https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/pvAAwF10vudGhhg99Jzslwpoc_token=HP5Se2mjAS5zVNoWEd4jN0VnVq-vOcuODL5b2UY5"
X Link 2026-01-29T12:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2. There are two key points to note: (a) Volcano Engine (ByteDance) has overtaken Huawei Cloud and Tencent Cloud to become Alibaba Clouds strongest competitor; and"
X Link 2026-01-29T12:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"3. (b) Volcano Engine and Baidu Cloud are gaining momentum while Tencent Cloud is retreating and Huawei Cloud is struggling. Tencent Cloud in particular is stepping back from discount wars in order to preserve profitability but is losing market share in the process"
X Link 2026-01-29T12:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"4. For now this leaves Alibaba Cloud and Volcano Engine as the two main players since Baidu Cloud is more niche-oriented. Alibaba Cloud's key advantages remain (a) economies of scale and (b) full-stack proprietary technology from chips to models to cloud"
X Link 2026-01-29T12:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"5. Volcano Engine is opportunistically using the GPU shortage as an entry point to the cloud market but lags behind in many technological areas. Without this tailwind it would really be in the others category alongside JD Cloud"
X Link 2026-01-29T12:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"6. It remains unclear whether Volcano Engine will be able to keep up once the tide goes out or whether it will flounder like Huawei Cloud"
X Link 2026-01-29T12:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"7. Huawei Cloud was once hyped as the sure successor to Alibaba Cloud but unfortunately it never developed a solid foundation in core technologies and is now nowhere to be seen. But on the other hand its ASIC business unit is doing quite well"
X Link 2026-01-29T12:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@aceboy8844 They sold 10000+ PPU chips to BYD in [----]. Source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/R3s2tfHIOZoSXqk36ui8Eg https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/R3s2tfHIOZoSXqk36ui8Eg"
X Link 2026-01-30T04:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. He says that most of the profit will eventually accrue to the application layer on top rather than to the chips at the bottom. Source: https://time.com/7357630/robin-li-baidu-interview/ https://time.com/7357630/robin-li-baidu-interview/"
X Link 2026-01-30T12:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. $BIDU has a sizeable chip business (#4 among Chinese domestic players) so you would think hes motivated to talk his book before the IPO but actually he seems a little bit I dont know nonchalant"
X Link 2026-01-30T13:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. I think whats going to happen is that most startups will be ground down by the bigger players and then once they own the market they will start to push ads. If each AI super app has hundreds of millions of daily users and they put some ads on the profits could be huge"
X Link 2026-01-30T13:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. Subscriptions may not be necessary or optimal although I personally would pay. In China monetising via ads is just so much easier. People complain all day long about Douyin being full of ads but they dont leave"
X Link 2026-01-30T13:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. Onto the next layer: For cloud in China I think this looks competitive today but the real situation is not nearly as bad. People are competing on price because their cloud business is crap. There are lots of weak players that for some reason just have not quit"
X Link 2026-01-30T13:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. Alibaba Cloud in contrast is kind of like a quasi-monopoly asset like the iPhone. Yes there are multiple phones (the market looks competitive) but the iPhone is one of a kind and even if you keep throwing money at it it is very hard to dislodge this product"
X Link 2026-01-30T13:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. To illustrate Alibaba Cloud is the only player in China that is world class in both traditional CPU cloud and emerging AI cloud technology plus self-developed downstream and upstream offerings. No other company in China comes close"
X Link 2026-01-30T13:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. Huawei tried to compete before but they eventually quit because the cash burn was too high and they did not see a path to profitability. Same for Tencent even though it has more cash than $BABA"
X Link 2026-01-30T13:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. I dont think throwing money at the industry is the right approach and Im still not convinced by ByteDance. They tried burning money to enter the gaming sector but ultimately failed and left"
X Link 2026-01-30T13:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. Cloud is not an easy business especially if you have no scale. Even $GOOG found it hard when it started but then they managed to hit a home run with TPUs and Gemini"
X Link 2026-01-30T13:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. If you burn more cash and lose more money while your competitor reinvests profits and makes more money psychologically it is going to be very difficult for you to keep going"
X Link 2026-01-30T13:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. For ByteDance to compete in cloud long-term they need to develop real technology because this is a technologically-intensive sector. Im not saying that Volcano Engine is totally useless but for me Alibaba Cloud is still the undisputed leader"
X Link 2026-01-30T13:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. Alibaba Clouds EBITA margin is around 9% today but I expect this to expand over time as they acquire more scale utilise more cost-effective chips (with no middle man cut) and grow overseas (higher margin market)"
X Link 2026-01-30T13:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. With new tech development there is a chance of the market leader being overtaken because their moat is not strong"
X Link 2026-01-30T13:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. You can see this now with $GOOG getting an edge over $MSFT and $AMZN which was unthinkable a few years ago when Google Cloud was seen as a joke and even their ad team didnt want to help cross-sell it to clients"
X Link 2026-01-30T13:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. Now they are right on the heels of AWS and I think they could even close the gap because Gemini is so much better than what AWS has. This same thing is less likely to happen in China because the tech gap is much much bigger so I feel comfortable with Alibaba Cloud"
X Link 2026-01-30T13:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. The idea is to broaden out so even in a lower margin world the chip profit could still be big because you have a much much bigger addressable market"
X Link 2026-01-30T13:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. Yeah thats correct. I think $BABA has all the elements required to win in China (vertical integration + app ecosystem). The remaining players have deficiencies in one area or another and sometimes the weak link can be fatal or at least pivotal"
X Link 2026-01-30T14:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. Regarding $GOOG they definitely have some advantages over $BABA but at the same time the reverse is true as well"
X Link 2026-01-30T14:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@pandawatch88 [--]. For example skilled labour in China is much more abundant and affordable. And for agentic functions $BABA already has internal apps it can tap into whereas for example asking $AMZN to plug e-commerce into Gemini would involve much more friction"
X Link 2026-01-30T14:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1. This is a good read. $BABA has already started to cannibalise Taobao/Tmall to a certain extent by allowing its own AI superapp to access its marketplace directly. https://www.ft.com/content/9de227a5-2bc1-4730-88b1-dbbb5b559ee8 https://www.ft.com/content/9de227a5-2bc1-4730-88b1-dbbb5b559ee8"
X Link 2026-02-01T03:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2. In contrast $AMZN is still adopting a wait-and-see approach and is currently refusing to grant external chatbots access"
X Link 2026-02-01T03:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"3. In my view the loss of "eyeballs" and ad revenue in e-commerce is not a major concern for $BABA as consumers will use its Qianwen app to order goods and ads can be shifted to the AI chatbot (a new monetisation point)"
X Link 2026-02-01T03:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4. For $AMZN however it's a different story as they obviously don't have an internal solution"
X Link 2026-02-01T03:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"5. They are looking into Anthropic and OpenAI but these two could just as easily work with $WMT and others. If they later put ads in the chatbot $AMZN is not going to benefit as much as it would lose in ad revenue on its own marketplace"
X Link 2026-02-01T03:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"3. But at the same time there remains uncertainty about whether any significant operational catalysts lie ahead for the gaming industry. This trade that the investment banks propose appears to be driven purely by a technical catalyst"
X Link 2026-02-01T05:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"4. Investor sentiment towards the industry has definitely cooled in recent months with concerns that AI tools like $GOOGs Project Genie could lower entry barriers enabling smaller players to challenge incumbents. Im not fully convinced by this argument for two reasons:"
X Link 2026-02-01T05:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"7. While AI may help small studios produce more niche hits the impact on market leaders is likely to be limited and short-lived. For a small studio to truly make it is exceptionally difficult because success extends far beyond game development"
X Link 2026-02-01T05:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"8. Todays gaming giants function like luxury conglomerates engaging in M&A intelligence sharing operational support marketing publishing and distribution activities that minimise direct execution risk while still capturing significant value"
X Link 2026-02-01T05:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"12. Alternatively the large gaming houses could also self-develop their own copy of these hits and outmuscle them via marketing and distribution resources"
X Link 2026-02-01T05:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"1. One quick point about Tencent's ongoing red packet campaign: Compared with the [----] campaign (WeChat Pay vs. Alipay) payments are largely interchangeable"
X Link 2026-02-01T10:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2. From a consumer perspective there is minimal difference between Alipay and WeChat Pay and once they achieve basic consumer mindshare they can encourage people to switch platforms without any significant loss of functionality"
X Link 2026-02-01T10:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"3. AI chatbots in contrast are much less interchangeable. Differentiation in terms of the quality of answers provided personalisation speed and agentic features can create genuine user preference and habit formation"
X Link 2026-02-01T10:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"4. A one-time monetary incentive such as a small red packet is unlikely to persuade users to abandon a superior chatbot experience in favour of an inferior alternative at least not permanently. I think this campaign by Tencent is premature and imprudent"
X Link 2026-02-01T10:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"5. Tencent is now kind of in a similar situation to $AMZN and $MSFT. They are dominant companies from an earlier era but now find themselves a little bit behind in the AI race. Tencent is relying on DeepSeek $AMZN on Anthropic and $MSFT on OpenAI"
X Link 2026-02-01T10:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"6. Similarly this grey swan is also looming over $TCOM which has a monopoly in OTA and regularly forces merchants into exclusivity and below-cost pricing. [--]. Similarly this grey swan is also looming over $TCOM which has a monopoly in OTA and regularly forces merchants into exclusivity and below-cost pricing"
X Link 2026-01-14T13:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
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